KIRAN PANDAY

After the ninth abortive attempts to elect a new prime minister on Thursday, it doesn't look like the tenth vote on 6 October will yield a result either.

Ram Chandra Poudel won't get the required votes to become prime minister, and if that happens the caretaker government will remain till after Dasain. Even though this has become a one-horse race, Poudel can't win since the Maoist and the UML command a majority in the 601-member parliament. But the two communists can't agree on having an alliance, either.

Poudel's only achievement so far is that he has prevented a Maoist-led coalition government from winning. Many in the NC fear the country will drift towards dictatorship if the Maoists return to power.

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal withdrew in the last round, but he is desperate to be back on the saddle. He feels India is dead against him, and is using carrots and sticks: threatening Indian investors while at the same time getting his deputies to sweet-talk Delhi.

Neither Dahal nor Jhal Nath Khanal of the UML can become prime minister unless Poudel withdraws. Both communist chiefs know this, and are therefore pressuring Speaker Subhas Nembang to end the election process and amend regulations by using his special powers. Nembang has so far refused, but pressure is growing on him to do something, anything. Bijay Prasad Mishra of the Nepal Bar Association says: "The Speaker alone can break this deadlock. He should not be mere spectator, and use his special privilege."

The NC has preconditions to withdrawing Poudel's candidature that includes demobilisation of Maoist fighters, and a commitment to a democratic constitution. The Maoists have said in recent days they are willing to be flexible on the NC's demands. A deal is still possible.