The chief ministers of all seven provinces met last week in Hetauda to discuss their next step to pressure the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary">federal government</a> to devolve political power to their provinces.&nbsp;
In a unique cross-party show of strength, the provincial leadership presented a joint memorandum to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Kathmandu. Some of their demands were to transfer control of the police force, pass the long pending federal civil service law, hand over ownership of provincial infrastructure and natural resources, and last but not least, allow them to collect their own revenue. &nbsp;
This is not the first time the provinces have expressed their collective grievance. But Kathmandu, under various governments since the first elections under the new Constitution in 2017, has just been making empty promises.&nbsp;
Indeed, Nepal’s main political leaders who were themselves the architects of the federal constitution are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/feudal-federalism">loath to devolve political power</a> that they have decentralised to local governments. Even their own party structure is wholly centralised not just in the central committee in Kathmandu, but in just one elderly alpha male in each party.
That Nepal’s leadership is lukewarm towards federalism is no big secret, they are unwilling to loosen their grip on power even to their own party leaders in the provinces and municipalities.
Eight years after the establishment of a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/feudalism-to-federalism">three-tiered system of government</a> following a prolonged deadlock over the style of federalism that delayed the passage of the post-conflict 2015 Constitution, Nepal’s provinces are largely functionless.&nbsp;
For many Nepalis, the perception is that federalism is a corrupt and costly experiment that has failed miserably. Indeed, they have spent a fortune building luxurious lodgings for the provincial leadership in the upscale Bhaisepati neighbourhood. &nbsp;
In Nepal, federalism did not just signify devolution of power, but also the people’s sense of identity and belonging, and the participation of those historically excluded from the political process. This fact was reflected in the opposition of the people to the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/kosi-now-kathmandu-next"> naming of Province 1 as Kosi</a>, and their demand for it to be renamed Kirat Limbuwan.
This is not a new struggle. The Madhes movement for federal restructuring after the decade-long armed conflict actually served as a catalyst for the establishment of the provincial system. The Maoists insisted on an ethnicity-based provincial model and the Nepali Congress was for a geographical delineation. The UML backed a hybrid model.&nbsp;
The Maoists have historically taken credit for the transformation of the governance system that allowed for the reflection of identity, while the UML and the NC have sought to maintain the status quo even after the establishment of federalism.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Dahal has directly interfered in provincial governance, which in this year’s case served to further inflame <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/east-is-east">social unrest in Kosi</a>.&nbsp;
For outsiders looking in who are removed from the nuances in Kosi, Madhes, and Sudar Paschim, and are only involved in Kathmandu-centred discourse, provincial governance and federalism have thus just become a burdensome extension of central politics.&nbsp;
Federalism will once more become an election issue in the 2027 polls as political parties succumb to the temptation to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/long-leave-the-king">adopt regressive, conservative</a>, and populist rhetoric to appeal to disenfranchised voters. &nbsp;
Bad mouthing federalism has become a favourite pastime for parties like the royal right RPP, which has simultaneously fed and fed off the public’s disenchantment with governance to call for the abolishment of federalism and the reestablishment of a Hindu monarchy.&nbsp;
Ironically, the party fielded the second-highest number of FPTP candidates to contest provincial elections in 2022.
Meanwhile, the new and independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which did not field candidates for provincial elections in 2022, may not say it is against federalism in so many words, but has called it “useless” and “enabling corruption”. They have proposed to make the provincial assembly and parliament smaller.
The provinces today are indeed proxies of Kathmandu —seven mirrors which reflect the political incompetence of the central government instead of being fully functioning autonomous units.&nbsp;
Nepalis have been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/year-of-reckoning">quick to blame federalism</a> when it is the politicians who have refused to let go of their control. The system of governance is not flawed, politicians that keep provinces on a tight leash are.&nbsp;
Nepal’s provinces are not incapable of fulfilling their function, they have not been allowed to explore their roles and responsibilities. Throwing out federalism is not the answer.&nbsp;
To dismantle federalism is to undo the years of work it took to promulgate the Constitution and to overlook the struggle, sacrifice and hard-earned achievements of countless people during the conflict that preceded the Constitution.&nbsp;
In order for Nepal’s democracy to truly function, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/un-centralising-the-federal-structure">federalism must be given a chance</a>.
Shristi Karki

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Editorial

The F word

Twenty-eight years after the Maoist party launched an armed struggle to overhaul Nepal’s centralised state, remove exploitation, exclusion and usher in an era of justice and equality, the former Maoist supremo is prime minister for the third time with a former arch enemy as his main coalition partner. It has been 18 years since the Comprehensive Peace Accord that promised a new political order and transitional justice. &nbsp;
Even former Maoist guerrillas now admit their sacrifice and pain were in vain. Most Nepalis agree. The main outcome of the war and death of 17,000 Nepalis and trauma of countless others was the federal, secular, republican Constitution of 2015.&nbsp;
Now, that very Constitution which came about after much bloodshed is being challenged by retrogressive forces that want to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Using populism, whipped up pseudo-nationalism and a weaponised social web, they are bent on dismantling devolution and democracy even before it has been allowed to fully function. Instead of throwing out rotten leaders, they want to replace the barrel.&nbsp;
There have been similar hankerings for strongman rule in world history that have inevitably led to disaster. What feeds demagogic rhetoric is the chronic failure of representative democracy to produce accountable government to deliver development and betterment. The antidote to a malfunctioning democracy is to fix its shortcomings.&nbsp;
Young Nepalis are expressing their discontent with protest votes for populist parties. Monarchists sense the time is ripe to take advantage of popular frustration, and are starting the new year with nationwide rallies to call for the restoration of a Hindu kingdom and scrapping federalism.
India’s general election in 2024 and the ruling BJP’s Hindutva agenda is infecting Nepali politics. Besides everything else we import from India, we are also importing its communal intolerance. &nbsp;
Nepal’s political system need not be remodelled every time there is regime change in New Delhi.
<h2>Modifying India</h2>
After the defeat of the Indian Congress in state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems a foregone conclusion. His cult of personality took 10 years to build, and despite policy blunders that cost people their savings (demonetisation) and lives (Covid closedowns) he is more popular than ever. The BJP with its allies now control 16 of India’s 29 states, reversing the grand Indian tradition of incumbents losing elections.
The BJP’s systemic targeting of minorities and almost complete control of media messaging galvanised support in the Cow Belt. But Modi is also reaping political dividend from an economy galloping at 7.6% a year. Impressive new infrastructure projects and moon landings gave Indians justifiable pride in 2023 in their country’s achievements.
Why then does the BJP have to still rely on toxic communalism, bigotry, and violence against India’s minority religions? This is especially inscrutable given that there are millions of Indians working in the Gulf.&nbsp;
Domestically, India is now sliced along a north-south ideological axis. Populist authoritarianism in India exploits opposition disarray, as elsewhere. One reason for its setbacks in state elections was that the Congress was over-confident, and rejected alliances with regional parties.&nbsp;
India is a Subcontinent, not just a country and is the most populous in the world. It is also the world’s biggest arms importer, and a weakened West thinks it needs India to confront China. An enemy of an enemy is a friend, so criticism of Modi is muted.
India’s strong gravitational tug impacts all neighbouring countries. A stronger Modi may not necessarily be bad for Nepal, since he may be less inclined to flex his muscles and play the Hindutva card. Or maybe he still will. We will see in 2024.
<h2>Trumping America</h2>
The world’s two most established democracies drifting towards authoritarianism does not bode well for the rest of the world. A second Trump term in 2024 will have consequences for the global order as well as the planet.
America’s support for human rights, democracy and press freedom around the world sound hollow given a domestic political mess of its own making. Even under Biden, America’s standing in 2023 was tarnished by his carte blanche support for Israel’s war machine in Gaza where nearly 21,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of them women and children.&nbsp;
With its military and economic might the US still has a global reach. It also has a crucial voice in reducing climate risk.&nbsp;
America’s obsession with a rising China and its Indo-Pacific strategy complicates Nepal’s precarious geopolitical balancing act between its two giant neighbours. The yam has a third boulder to contend with.
<h2>World wars</h2>
Israel’s atrocities in Gaza have overshadowed other world wars in Ukraine, Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria. Because Nepalis are now spread out across the world, they tend to get caught up in almost every conflict.&nbsp;
Ten Nepalis were killed by Hamas on 7 October, and one is still believed to be held hostage. At least 7 Nepali soldiers in the Russian Army have been killed in Ukraine. Four are prisoners of war in Ukraine, and there are some Nepalis also fighting for the Ukrainians.
Despite immigration restrictions, the Nepal government is not able to stop its nationals from going to work in dangerous places. The only medium-term solution to this is to launch a bold campaign to boost investment and provide meaningful employment in Nepal itself.&nbsp;
This is what Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s address to the nation this week on the first anniversary of assuming office should have announced. Instead, we got more platitude and excuses for another lost year.

Year of reckoning

Diaspora Diaries started with a simple mission: to bring out the human side of migration, and how it touches nearly all Nepali families in both positive and negative ways. 50 stories later, we celebrate their journeys on International Migrants Day, 18 December 2024. Diaspora Diaries are stories of people on the move. The physical act of moving is more prominent in our public narrative, for example in airport departure scenes. But it is really about the desire of migrants and their families for better lives, to move away from the cycle of poverty they are born into. Migration offers a possibility to change their circumstances and of their children. Hence the fitting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/sky-is-the-limit-for-nepali-chef-in-bahrain" target="_blank">description</a> by a worker, “ours is a generation of sacrifices”. It did not matter where the workers in these stories are headed, as long as it offered a possibility for a better future. A worker <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-saudi-to-sauji" target="_blank">recalled</a>, “For us, there was no Qatar or Saudi or UAE, only Arab. And that was where the jobs and money was.” Another <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-family-spread-across-kuwait-cyprus-uae" target="_blank">said</a> she knew nothing about Kuwait except “it was bidesh and that the work would let me to provide for my children.” Migration has also been a family affair. A Kuwait-based son of a Saudi returnee <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/diaspora-diaries-2-2a0bh9b7" target="_blank">said</a>, “When my father turned 50, I decided it was time to bring him back from Saudi Arabia.” His father, a gardener, passed on the foreign employment baton to him as he headed to Kuwait as a security guard and has now risen to the ranks of an Assistant Managing Director. It took intergenerational migration to break the family out of intergenerational poverty. Migrants in this series express pride in the awards and promotions that were key milestones in their foreign employment journeys. From getting recognised via awards <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home" target="_blank">like</a> “Spirit to Serve award signed by Bill Marriott himself” to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-on-my-mind" target="_blank">rising the ranks</a> including to managerial roles even when they started as helpers. A Burger King employee <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything" target="_blank">studied</a> restaurant manuals like a textbook before rising to a trainer and manager role, while another chef <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/proud-to-give-back-to-nepal" target="_blank">said</a> he frequently had bloodshot eyes out of exhaustion and overwork. Particularly for workers without the educational or language skills who dropped out of schools or learnt English, these awards help break out of self-limiting beliefs that are common in a foreign land. But these personal wins also had positive spillover effects for fellow migrants. Nepalis are increasingly occupying positions traditionally reserved for other nationalities, especially in h hospitality. Migrants expressed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/finding-a-niche-in-nepal" target="_blank">optimism</a> for the newer crop of youth who have better educational backgrounds. But not everyone is better off because of foreign employment, as we know far too well. Abuses are rampant. People continue to pay to work and in many cases do not get paid in full for their work. The series also captures stories of dreams interrupted and of foreign employment not just being another life’s reality that failed them, but made them worse off. A domestic worker rescued from Lebanon <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/diaspora-diaries-4-xprqcf4x" target="_blank">said</a>, “The thought of all those 12 years boiling down to nothing financially eats me up every waking moment of every day.” Most recently, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bringing-nepal-to-israel" target="_blank">students</a> <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-nepali-s-lucky-escape-from-hamas" target="_blank">caught</a> in the Hamas attack in Israel are still mourning the loss of their friends who died in front of their eyes, and still looking and waiting for their friend <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/waiting-for-bipin-joshi" target="_blank">Bipin Joshi</a>. For many workers, foreign employment did not lead to long-term savings and progress, but the earnings provided much needed support to their families while they were away. They may have come back without much savings but have the hope that the returns of their investment will come through their children’s secure future, lives of parents extended who are healthier. For many workers, foreign employment is about nostalgia for simpler times. The thrill of rushing to the mailman or the supervisors who used to come with sacks of letters is one of their favorite memories. One migrant<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/return-of-the-native" target="_blank"> said</a>, “My father and I got closer through our letters.” While a mother <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-mothers-sons" target="_blank">said</a> she heard her son’s voice for the first time after two years on the phone. &nbsp;A worker recalls, “We ran out of coins before we ran out of words to say.” Diaspora Diaries are also stories of firsts. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-mothers-sons" target="_blank">70 year old</a> mother who went to visit her two sons in the UAE, the first time she had left the country or got on a plane. A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/adventures-of-a-nepali-coffee-aficionado" target="_blank">coffee barista</a> who now has won international competitions says nothing beats the whiff of his first ever coffee in Dubai, a burger place owner remembers his <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/amit-and-tilak" target="_blank">first burger</a> in Saudi Arabia when he first arrived in his Saudi accommodation.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231218101232_b16143ea8a1dd14f36b50f4b1d558a4fadba6ba473f73741e3cbcf3b7b25bf92.png" data-media-id="editor_18" data-image-id="20231218101232_b16143ea8a1dd14f36b50f4b1d558a4fadba6ba473f73741e3cbcf3b7b25bf92" data-rendition-name="original" width="632" height="889" loading="lazy" alt="50 DD full"> </figure>  And first time experiencing the Gulf heat: “the blast of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything" target="_blank">hot air</a> that enveloped me when the airport door slid open in Dubai” or “the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/amit-and-tilak" target="_blank">overpowering heat</a> on the tarmac in Riyadh.” Foreign employment is also about missed milestones and tradeoffs that are all too common among transnational families. A son who <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/diaspora-diaries-3-quayu6oe" target="_blank">lost his mother</a> recalls not being there for his mother’s last rites as both he and his brother were in the Gulf. He says they earned enough to pay for medical bills for her long-term illness “that may have even extended her life” but that they failed to be there in the last moments. Another worker could not come for his mother’s last rites because of his irregular status, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/prisoners-of-the-green-passport">said</a>: “Before she passed, relatives told me tears would roll down her face for me, even though she could not speak, for her youngest son. Her undocumented son.&nbsp; An Israel based mother who managed to educate and send her sons to Canada and the US <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bringing-nepal-to-israel" target="_blank">asks</a>: “But how do you weigh that against not knowing what it is like to be close to your children -- watching them grow up.” For others, the tradeoff meant being able to save their relatives’ lives. One worker proudly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/tale-of-a-modern-day-lahure">says</a>: “My wife is now cancer free”, while another <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-to-save-my-sister">says</a> he used up all his earnings for his sister’s medical treatment and asks, “What more could a brother ask for?” Social media has thankfully made things easier, this generation of migrants saw quick transformations from letters to emails to landlines, cell phones to social media. They also witnessed and contributed to the rapid transformations of the Gulf right in front of their eyes. This is the generation that will <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-saudi-to-sauji" target="_blank">remember</a> the vast expanses of sand when they first arrived to the Gulf countries, and left cities with high rises and hosts of international events. We built their architecture. Many <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/amit-and-tilak" target="_blank">recall a period</a> when there was joy bumping into a fellow Nepali to a present when every other person you bump into is a Nepali. Some shared their stories in verse, others through <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/painting-a-bright-future" target="_blank">art</a>. Migrants recount how poems and letters have been written at labor camps, construction sites, guarding booths. In the desert heat, one poet <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/prisoners-of-the-green-passport" target="_blank">describes</a>, “Beads of sweat dropped on the page of my diary in which I was writing a poem, making the words illegible.” Ironically, workers are also employed in places where free expression is suppressed. Some of the most powerful words came from those who chose to share their stories anonymously for fear of retribution. As one worker who returned prematurely after a failed migration experience, in fact our very <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/diaspora-diaries-1-33trp2ou" target="_blank">first Diary</a> who inspired us to start this series says, “That is our reality. They want the quiet ones. The ones who can be silenced.” A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-of-workers-working-together" target="_blank">Nepali</a> involved with a trade union in Korea that allows foreign workers to unionise recalls he was standing on the shoulders of giants, including Nepali migrant workers in Korea, who laid the foundation for foreigners like him to fight the good fight. Meanwhile, workers also <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/our-notes-count-but-our-votes-don-t" target="_blank">say</a> the Nepal government itself is suppressing their voices by not letting overseas workers vote: “Our notes count but our votes don’t.” The question of temporariness of “temporary labor migration” also comes into question when workers are staying for decades. One worker who lived in Dubai for 30 years <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/return-of-the-native" target="_blank">writes</a>, “I used to be sad leaving Nepal after a vacation, but later started feeling like I was returning home when I boarded a Dubai-bound flight. I cannot pinpoint when that switch happened.” Eventually, though, many do come back. As one worker aptly described it, “We may stretch our employment until either our employers or our bodies allow it, but we will all come home eventually.” In the series, we feature stories of workers who are successful returnees who have started businesses in Nepal in construction repair, bakeries, restaurants and trainers. Foreign employment had a role to play via a mixture of social and financial remittances it offered.&nbsp; Others share that their skills were wasted back home and they struggle to find a footing, especially after being away for so long. A safety officer who had spent 13 years overseas says he <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/between-home-and-the-deep-blue-sea" target="_blank">saw</a> red flags everywhere in Nepal including in construction sites. A camel herder who knows everything there is to know about camels, finds no use for his skills in Nepal. The Diaspora Diary of a Malaysia returnee who <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/cut-from-a-different-cloth" target="_blank">runs</a> a garment factory has been <a href="https://globalvoices.org/2023/01/26/cut-from-a-different-cloth-former-nepali-migrant-worker-is-now-an-entrepreneur/" target="_blank">translated</a> into 7 languages. Migrant workers shared their stories without thinking they had anything interesting to share. As one noted, “I do not think my story is that remarkable. I am a simple Nepali who worked hard and made sacrifices.” But that is precisely why these are such powerful stories. To read all 50 stories in e-book, click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uR6pzwfR91KAezRODgDIz2FWI6m2xjPL/view?usp=sharing">here</a>.

50 Diaspora Diaries in Nepali Times

Next week, it will be one year since Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal became Prime Minister of Nepal for the third time after abandoning his decade-long effort to revolutionise the Nepali state through force of arms.&nbsp;
Although the conflict ended, Dahal’s tenures have been marred by missteps, political interference, nepotism and allegations of rampant corruption. The coalition that he heads has squandered the mandate of elections.&nbsp;
Governance is at a standstill, the economy is stagnant, and even by Nepali standards this has been an exceptionally <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-year-of-scandals">scandal-ridden year</a> with back-to-back exposés of corruption.&nbsp;
No wonder the Prime Minister is said to be thinking of shuffling his Cabinet, with just one more year to go before his promised handover of prime ministership to Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress.
There are signs of trouble in high places. The prime minister’s political advisor and senior Maoist leader Haribol Gajurel, who has been known for his personal integrity, resigned last week citing “policy differences”. &nbsp;It is an open secret at the PMO that the differences are with Prime Minister Dahal’s powerful daughter Ganga.&nbsp;
The politicisation of crime and the criminalisation of politics is blurring the lines between those elected to govern and the human traffickers and gold smugglers implicated in recent scandals. The public is pouring scorn on politicians on the social web, saying that Nepal has now entered the ‘Golden Age’, or that Tribhuvan International Airport should be renamed ‘Suvarnabhumi’.
And it is that airport which offers proof that Nepalis are voting with their feet. Young men and women spent Rs24 billion last year to go study abroad – their student visas mostly facilitating permanent emigration. Even the fake refugee scandal proved how desperate Nepalis are to use any means possible to leave.
Nepalis now do not just migrate to the Gulf or Malaysia out of economic necessity, but also increasingly to Europe, North America and Australia for better opportunities. Young people desperate to earn a living would rather even go fight someone else’s war, as we have seen with Nepalis in the Russian Army killed and captured on the Ukraine front.
On Wednesday, Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat said that Nepal’s economic indicators were “positive” and there were signs of recovery. We detect no such sign, in fact, all indicators point to a worsening crisis. Petroleum import makes up nearly 25% of the total import bill, and yet Mahat said recently the government could not promote electric transport because it would “lose revenue”.
In fact, revenue collection is much lower than projected for other reasons. The trade deficit has become unmanageable because of record-low exports. And the only reason the economy has not gone belly up is because of remittance inflows. Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves can pay for 10 months of imports and remittance inflows peaked at Rs136.97 billion in September-October, the highest ever for one month in history.&nbsp;
But the most thriving sector is the shadow economy which is made up of illicit state-protected activities like gold smuggling, human trafficking and corruption.
Public disillusionment has grown to such an extent that many now throng to pro-monarchy rallies with slogans against republicanism and federalism. Fearful of the anti-establishment messaging through social media platforms, the government shut down TikTok, and this could be the first step in a more general crackdown against free expression.&nbsp;
The coalition government is using the excuse of elections to the Upper Chamber to put off the winter session of Parliament since there will be strong opposition voices from the floor about impunity in recent prominent corruption scandals.
Parliament itself is supposed to debate an electoral reform bill, but the alpha males of the mainstream parties have already struck off the clause in it that would allow voting by mail. So pervasive is the fear of an anti-incumbent vote in the diaspora.&nbsp;
Senior figures from the main established parties all neck-deep in muck, and even the opposition UML appears to be in I-scratch-your-back-you-scratch-mine mode to protect each other from one scandal or the other. Nepal’s kleptocracy is populated by kakistocrats, and with all the plunder going on the question is if the country will survive till the next election in 2027.
In his second year in office, Dahal must launch a campaign on investments in infrastructure and manufacturing to create massive job creation, improve access to public services and guide policies for green growth. He must do this not only to protect his own political career but for the country he currently leads.&nbsp;
Shristi Karki

Nepal's 'Golden Age'

With all the hot air and greenwashing going on at COP28 in Dubai, it is clear that most delegates do not have the vision or the political will to grasp the implications of global climate breakdown. Whether it is petrostates or those heavily addicted to fossil fuels, the Conference of Parties feels more like a conference of partying as if there is no tomorrow. This must be what it must have felt like as the band struck up a polka on the tilting ballroom of the Titanic. The heat, flood, sea ice loss, sea surface temperature and hurricane wind velocity records that were broken in 2023 should be proof enough that incremental calibration of petroleum use will not help. The world (mainly India, China, Europe and North America) is burning twice as much fossil fuel as is needed to meet the outdated 1.5 degree goal.&nbsp; That was a target set in 2015 at the Paris COP21 for 2050. We are already reaching that level of warming now (graph). There are 100,000 delegates at COP28, it is being held in the world’s top petroleum exporting country, and its President is a climate science denier.&nbsp; The Loss and Damage fund that was announced with drumrolls at the start of COP last week has turned out to be a PR stunt. The fossil industry is strongly pushing geo-engineering solutions in Dubai that already have acronyms: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as Solar Radiation Modification (SRM).&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-climate-smart">Not climate smart</a>, Sonia Awale A new report by Climate Analytics shows that CCS alone would be a ‘carbon bomb’ because of the energy required to capture and store CO2. The worst polluters are still pushing ‘phase-down’ instead of ‘phase-out’. And they think they are being clever by adding that they are for phasing out ‘unabated’ fossil fuels. This is COP28’s newest buzzword: unabated. Unabated means CO2 from burning fossil fuels is released directly into the atmosphere. The biggest emitters are now qualifying their targets by saying they will phase out just unabated fossil fuels. This &nbsp;semantic gymnastics ignores that carbon capture scale-up is unproven, and pumping sulphur aerosols into the stratosphere will destroy the ozone layer. The bottom line is that fossil fuel exporters and high per capita users do not want to reduce their carbon footprints. If they cannot agree on accelerated phaseout targets, one-third of Bangladesh will be submerged by ocean expansion, and two-thirds of Nepal's remaining Himalayan glaciers will be gone during this century.&nbsp; We do not want to keep saying ‘we told you so’, but ever since the COP3 cop-out after Kyoto in 1997, journalists have been writing the same editorials verbatim over and over again.&nbsp; A site search on the Nepali Times home page during COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, or COP17 in Durban in 2011 shows that we have been arguing that decarbonisation was necessary to save Nepal’s economy, and it is something we can manage ourselves.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/loss-and-damage-as-a-common-climate-cause">Loss and Damage as a Common Climate Cause</a>, Naveeda Khan In an editorial titled ‘The Right Climate for Change’ in the 9-15 December 2011 edition of Nepali Times ahead of the Durban summit, we wrote 12 years ago this week:  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231207111256_e106bd1545d27d75297cc4f28ee983bed82c5e4aa1749b5b708aeaae5733672f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20231207111256_e106bd1545d27d75297cc4f28ee983bed82c5e4aa1749b5b708aeaae5733672f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1054" loading="lazy" alt="Editorial 12 years ago"> </figure>  ‘The Nepal delegation is (in Durban) in force with a 30-member delegation. Developed countries say they can no longer afford to clean up the carbon they have pumped into the atmosphere since the industrial age, backing down from pledges made at Kyoto to help poorer countries mitigate the effects of climate change.&nbsp; For smaller Asian countries like Nepal, the issue is different. Whether we switch to renewables or not is not going to save the planet, but it can save us. Nepal's increasing dependence on fossil fuels is certain to take this country down the path of economic ruin. Nepal's petroleum imports from India grew three-fold in the last five years, and we don't have money to pay for it anymore. As we have argued in this space before, Nepal's balance of payments gap with India is only going to grow in future making us even more dependent on the southern neighbour. The solution is right under our noses. Making the switch to a hydropower-based economy is both the short-and long-term solution. We can give speeches until we are blue in the face in Durban about how the western countries should compensate us for our melting glaciers, or to help us adapt and/or mitigate, but if we don't have a plan to wean this country away from fossil fuels we might as well forget about it. We need to ensure that future generations of Nepalis (50 million of us by 2030) will inherit a country that is self-sufficient in domestically-generated renewable energy to meet their transportation, industrial and household needs. Maybe we should have just sent the minister to Durban to deliver his speech, and the rest of the delegation should have stayed home to plan for the future.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fuels-poison-air">Fossil fuels poison air</a>

Unabated greenwashing at COP28

With China, and now India, seeing setbacks in civil liberties, the Asia-Pacific was already not in good shape. Now, a new global survey shows that democracy in the region declined even further in the past year. <a href="https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/global-state-democracy-2023-new-checks-and-balances" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023: The New Checks and Balances</a> by the Stockholm-based thinktank <a href="https://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">International IDEA</a> says the most worrying trend in the world is of democratic backsliding and the erosion of constitutional freedoms.&nbsp; “Asia democracies, and aspiring democratisers in the more authoritarian states, still face challenges in revitalising institutions and in preventing further democratic decline,” said Seema Shah, Head of International IDEA's Democracy Assessment Unit during the <a href="https://www.idea.int/events/asia-and-pacific-launch-global-state-democracy-2023?fbclid=IwAR3UY-1y1sT0srM1YdDLY8VS7Q_DoPCKP24jCtH8dULBv4_u98XbDik5WZk" target="_blank">Asia-Pacific launch of the 2023 report in Bangkok on 23 November</a>. Although across the board democratic decline witnessed by countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade appears to have tapered off, the report says that the freedom of press score for the region is now at 2001 levels. Most countries in the region remain below the global average for representation, rule of law and human rights. Aside from entrenched authoritarian regimes like Laos, China and Vietnam, there have been steep declines in democracy indices in Burma and Afghanistan due to conflict and state collapse. However, even countries with higher democracy rankings like like Australia, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, India and Taiwan saw significant declines in press freedom. The report singles out Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal and Thailand as making progress in democratic participation with high turnout in recent elections, which were mostly free and fair.&nbsp; The report does not rank countries by just regime type or one value for quality of democracy, but relies on IDEA’s Democracy Tracker to monitor four core categories of democratic performance: public participation, representative government, respect for human rights and rule of law.&nbsp; Indeed, while democracy is notoriously difficult to quantify and rank, the categories do a better job in monitoring change. For example, representation is an aggregate measure of the credibility of the electoral process, and how free, fair, inclusive they are, give us a good idea of the quality of democracy in that country.&nbsp; A high participation score tells us how involved citizens are in exercising democracy during and between elections. Rule of law rankings are indicators of judicial independence and fairness, and human rights indices measure respect for civil liberties and social equality. The report gives Nepal higher marks in political participation in 2022, with the country ranked 69th out of 173 states — up four points compared to the previous year, and among the better performers among Asian countries. For comparison, India ranks 83rd, and it has fallen 17 points from its 2017 score.&nbsp; Even so, rising up the country rankings does not necessarily mean Nepal did better in the past year — it could just mean that other countries in the region faced larger declines in democracy indicators. On representation, too, Nepal is 61st, up 18 points since 2017. On human rights, Nepal is ranked 71st, and climbed 3 three points from the previous year. However, for rule of law Nepal is 94th among countries, having fallen 21 points since 2017.&nbsp; The IDEA report notes that Nepal has seen a five-year decline in effective Parliament, which was dissolved by Prime Minister K P Oli due to a power struggle in 2021 and reinstated by the Supreme Court. ‘Political coalitions have continued to be unstable since the November 2022 elections … and the primary political opposition appeared more interested in replacing the governing coalition partners than providing parliamentary oversight,’ the report’s summary for Nepal concludes.&nbsp; The survey has taken note of the erosion of civil liberties and press freedom in neighbouring India, where opposition party leaders have been harassed in the courts and the media. Amnesty International was forced to close its office in 2020 after its accounts were frozen, and raided the offices of the BBC and other media outlets.&nbsp; In India, Nepal and other countries the report cites ‘countervailing institutions’ defending against democratic decay by checking concentration of executive power through the court system, civil society activism, anti-corruption agencies, and the media. There was also community mobilisation for voting, as happened in this year’s elections in Thailand. It is clear from the example of Nepal and other politically unstable countries that an over-reliance on the court system can undermine or even destabilise the executive or legislature. Anti-corruption bureaus can be misused for political witch-hunts, and civil society can be as politically polarised as the parties. In the Pacific and South Asia, global and regional geopolitical rivalries also exert external pressure on democracies. In this respect, countries like Nepal that had to traditionally balance off two giant neighbours (India, China) now also have to factor in the United States. Debt repayment and development assistance are often used as carrots and sticks by world powers to influence domestic politics. The only way developing countries like Nepal can deal with this would be by strengthening domestic accountability and regional cooperation as a stabilising and democratic counterweight.&nbsp; Moontae Jeong in Bangkok  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20231127091124_25c36184a2ce580d14356dd7912439f840c044877f72a2a5a038bc3b9c5dd457" data-rendition-name="original" width="1194" height="1596" loading="lazy" alt="State of Democracy"> </figure>  <a href="https://cdn.sanity.io/files/2e5hi812/production/f7b6fb692e1475af3927aff774dbc93f50771ba9.pdf" target="_blank">The Global State of Democracy 2023</a> International IDEA Stockholm 2023 <a href="http://www.idea.int/" target="_blank">www.idea.int</a>

Stemming Asia’s democratic decay

Between mid-June and mid-October alone, almost 37,500 Nepalis left for the UAE for jobs, placing it among the top destination countries. Many of these workers will likely be engaged in the delivery of the COP28 Climate Summit that will ironically be held in the UAE, the world’s fifth <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-greenwashing-in-glasgow">biggest</a> exporter of refined petroleum, with the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) service as conference president. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will lead the Nepali delegation.Migrant workers form <a href="https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/">88% of the UAE population</a>, so one cannot talk about COP28 or the UAE by ignoring migration. For Nepal, too, the climate crisis and the migration economy are linked.<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/21/uae-migrant-worker-abuses-linked-broader-climate-harms">New research</a> by Human Rights Watch (HRW) states that the COP28 host’s role in climate injustice goes beyond it being one of the largest fossil fuel producers and among the highest per capita emitters. It also relates to its treatment of migrant workers. HRW interviewed 151 current and former migrant workers and their families from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. Despite negligible per capita greenhouse gas emissions, the three countries are among the most climate vulnerable and have suffered extreme weather and slow-onset events linked to climate change.&nbsp; The climate impact countries like Nepal face should also be considered from the perspective of their mobile populations in the UAE and other countries. Migrant workers are exposed to extreme heat with inadequate protection, and because widespread abuse like wage theft and exorbitant recruitment fees limit the ability of workers to send home remittances, including during climate-linked emergencies. Dubai’s maximum temperature on some days <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/weather/uae-temperatures-cross-50oc-for-first-time-this-summer">exceeded</a> 50 Celsius this summer, and the UAE itself is vulnerable to heat stress due to atmospheric warming.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that the Gulf <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter10.pdf">states’</a> wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is ‘expected to approach, and possibly exceed, the physiological threshold for human adaptability (35°C) by the end of the century’. Migrant workers, including Nepalis, are disproportionately exposed.The most common heat mitigation strategy used in the Gulf including the UAE are ‘summer midday bans’ that stop outdoor work in the afternoons for a few hours. But a <a href="https://oem.bmj.com/content/80/6/347">study</a> in <a href="https://oem.bmj.com/content/80/6/347">Kuwait</a> found that despite the ban there was a substantial increase in the risk of occupational injuries associated with extremely hot temperatures. Another <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333293731_Assessment_of_Heat_Stress_Exposure_among_Construction_Workers_in_the_Hot_Desert_Climate_of_Saudi_Arabia">study </a>found that the highest heat intensity for workers in Saudi Arabia was from 9 am to noon, while the ban is in effect between noon and 3 pm. HRW’s research recommends that the UAE move away from arbitrary, calendar-based midday bans towards risk-based measures such as the WBGT.&nbsp; Heat is a health hazard. It can exacerbate pre-existing conditions, impair cognitive function, and increase the risk of workplace injuries and long-term illnesses like end-stage renal failures. Dialysis rooms across Nepal that are filled with Gulf returnees. &nbsp; HRW’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/video-photos/interactive/2023/11/21/migrant-workers-bear-the-brunt-of-uae-extreme-heat">research</a> follows three dialysis patients who are all UAE returnees describing how they did not get support from the UAE. The Nepal government provides dialysis for free, but the cost of medicines, injections, and transportation add up. Chitrakala, the wife of a dialysis patient, Til, who accompanies him to the hospital multiple times a week for his dialysis says, “In some ways, I find it comforting to be at the hospital because in the waiting room, I realise I am not alone. It is not just my family that is facing this.”&nbsp; Another UAE returnee, Purna, says it is after he frequented the dialysis centre that he realised that kidney failure is common among migrant worker returnees. The situation will worsen in a changing climate. “The UAE is externalising their own climate risks onto migrant workers who are labouring under woefully inadequate protections. These workers often experience chronic health harms linked to extreme heat, and then return home without any compensation from the UAE and instead let countries like Nepal bear all the serious health costs like dialysis treatment,” says Michael Page of HRW.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231124031152_7daf43db2cba93c6e81c6607aa61d07d3f3fbd4e2b338aadd2aaa4720828cb76.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20231124031152_7daf43db2cba93c6e81c6607aa61d07d3f3fbd4e2b338aadd2aaa4720828cb76" data-rendition-name="original" width="4032" height="2268" loading="lazy" alt="COP28 and migtants NT"> </figure>  There are other labour abuses like wage theft and exorbitant recruitment fees that also contribute to climate injustice, the HRW report argues. Climate emergencies back home exacerbate the mental stress of wage theft and recruitment debt as families in Nepal are in increasingly dire and even life-threatening situations.&nbsp; Workers HRW spoke to who were unable to send remittances because of labour abuses spoke of the dilemma they face: their families lose both critical financial support and the help they could have provided for urgent tasks like rebuilding damaged property had they stayed home. But for many, even exiting the UAE with outstanding recruitment debts or unpaid wages during such climate emergencies posed a challenge. Workers had to pay fees to retrieve their passports including by obtaining ‘reverse remittances’ on loan from families back home already reeling from life-threatening climate emergencies. Good migration can be transformative, but bad migration can be devastating for families. To be sure, remittances have been critical for economies of Nepal and other South Asian countries, but they do not substitute their responsibility. Historical and major greenhouse gas emitters also have a duty to support communities heavily impacted by the climate crisis. <a href="https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/publication-doc/migration_development_brief_38_june_2023_0.pdf">Remittances</a> are equivalent to a quarter of Nepal’s GDP, while Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the top 10 remittance recipients globally. Remittances have also been a lifeline including post-earthquake and during Covid. But these numbers mask the individual experiences of migrant workers and their families who face abuses and many of whom end up in financially worse situations than they did pre-migration. Virtually all migrant workers pay hefty fees for jobs which itself creates a huge dent on the returns to migration while excluding some of the poorest communities from even attempting to migrate. But even that does not guarantee a good job. The July 2021 <a href="https://www.icimod.org/article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/">Melamchi flood</a> was a climate-induced disaster in Nepal, and one of its victims told HRW researchers: “During the flood, all we wanted was to save our lives. We survived, but we lost everything. The flood finished us.”His wife is headed to the UAE for a waitressing job which cost her Rs &nbsp;200,000, and borrowed at 24% annual interest. If all goes well, her first year’s salary of a mere $262 a month will just go to repay the loan. Another Sindhupalchok returnee from the UAE said, “Whether climate change or not, we have to migrate. We used to be self-sufficient but now have to buy food. Yields are lower. Insects and diseases are more common.” Climate change can be a compounding factor for longstanding emigration such as from Nepal to the Gulf, and adds to the burden of past, present and future migrant workers. The UAE is also being criticized for its restrictions on civil society and free expression during COP28. The HRW research states these affect migrant workers by limiting their ability to raise workplace concerns and seek structural, worker-centered reforms. The government’s opacity around <a href="https://pomeps.org/climate-the-environment-and-health-of-migrant-workers-lessons-from-kuwait">health data</a> hampers research for <a href="https://vitalsignsproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Vital_signs_3_online.pdf">evidence-based</a> policymaking including for better outdoor protections, while academics and journalists tend to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/01/uae-tolerance-narrative-sham-0">self-censor</a> to avoid reprisals. At the COP 28 in Dubai, Prime Minister Dahal would do well to dwell on the links between the host country and increasing climate vulnerability that Nepalis face both at home from weather extremes and heat stress at their workplaces in the UAE.

Too hot to work

The deadly midnight earthquake last Friday in Karnali Province occurred in an area where seismologists had long predicted the next Big One. 
This was the ‘seismic gap’ that this newspaper first wrote about in its <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5065">9-15 January 2004 edition</a> commemorating National Earthquake Safety Day and the 70th anniversary of the 8.5 magnitude 1934 disaster.
The subduction of the Indian plate into and below the Eurasian landmass leads to accumulated stress in the rock strata deep beneath the Himalaya. This tectonic tension builds up over time, and if it is not released periodically the result could be a megaquake that could result in a rupture leading to 6m or more of horizontal surface displacement.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deadly-earthquake-hits-w-nepal">Deadly earthquake hits W Nepal</a>, Nepali Times 
Seismic experts now say that the 3 November event was not the massive one that was expected. At 6.4 it was a moderate quake with a shallow epicenter, which is why the destruction was limited to a relatively small radius although the shaking was felt as far away as Delhi and Kathmandu.
The disaster also exposed Nepal’s demographic shift. Of the 157 confirmed dead so far, many were women because most men have migrated abroad for work. There was also a class and caste element, as the flimsiest homes belonged to the poorest families. 
Disaster management experts like to say that it is not earthquakes that kill people but buildings. Indeed, quakes are not ‘natural disasters’ but mostly man made. Proof of this was the 25 April 2105 earthquake which killed nearly 9,000 people in central Nepal as substandard buildings collapsed. 
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grief-stricken-survivors-are-cold-and-hungry">Grief-stricken survivors are cold and hungry</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
Tragically, this also was proven in last week’s disaster when fragile stone and mud plaster homes collapsed with the very first jolt. Newer buildings with reinforced concrete columns withstood the shaking, but had the intensity and duration of the quake been longer they would have also crumbled.
Seismologists say the Jajarkot quake was not strong enough to release all the tectonic stress -- which could mean it was either a precursor to a bigger one to come, or it has made the region safe for another decade or so.
There is no way to predict it either way. What we know for sure is that the next one is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. It is better to invest now in preparedness than in counting bodies and the number of collapsed buildings after a disaster.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mass-cremations-for-nepal-quake-victims">Mass cremations for Nepal quake victims</a>, Sagar Budhathoki and Gopen Rai
For this, we already have lessons from the 2015 earthquake. Nearly 7,500 school buildings with 35,000 classrooms collapsed eight years ago and even if we make a conservative estimate of only 10 students per class, the loss of young lives would have been catastrophic. What saved them was that the quake happened on a Saturday.
In Jajarkot and Rukum West last week, many families were crushed by their falling homes while they slept. But given the number of schools that have collapsed, the casualty rate may have been higher if the quake had happened in the daytime on a weekday.
The first order of business for prevention would therefore be to retrofit school buildings all over Nepal, but especially in Gandaki, Karnali and Far Western Provinces. Earthquake safety instruction and drills should also be mandatory in schools. Digging tools, tents, first aid kits and go bags must be pre-positioned in school premises which can serve as shelters. Hospitals and public buildings also need to be retrofitted, and private home owners encouraged to make safety inspections.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-quake-survivors-wait-for-kin-to-return">Nepal quake survivors wait for kin to return</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
There are now earthquake early alert systems available that give up to 30 second warnings by analysing earthquake P waves waves and estimating its location and intensity to send alerts either through alarm devices installed in schools, or now on Android phones.
In fact, in the last 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 3 October in Bajhang, many people with Android phones got alerts in Kathmandu even while the earthquake was happening 500km away. Personal phones therefore became seismometers and could even give prior warning of quakes if Nepal becomes part of the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/earthquake-early-warning-overview">US Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert</a> system. The awkwardly acronymed NDRRMA (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority) was given a back seat in the aftermath of the Jajarkot quake. Its chief was travelling, and the government put in place a ‘one window’ coordination unit in Karnali that, instead of facilitating a more efficient mechanism for relief delivery, has become a bottleneck.
The 3 November disaster was a dress rehearsal for a bigger catastrophe to come, and sadly, we did not come off with flying colours this time.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/demographics-of-disaster-in-nepal-quake">Demographics of disaster in Nepal quake</a>, Nepali Times

Shaking things up

That UN Secretary General António Guterres invested four days to visit 
Nepal in the midst of a war in the Middle East was perhaps a 
deliberate attempt to draw attention to another calamity: climate 
breakdown. 
 
He chose Nepal because it is a least-developed country that has itself 
come out of a ten-year conflict, and is one of the most vulnerable to 
the impact of global heating. In a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/below-mt-everest-antonio-guterres-urges-climate-action">video message</a> he recorded on Monday 
from Syangboche with Mt Everest peeking over his shoulder he said: “We 
can see the terrible impact of the climate crisis on the Himalayas … 
climate action cannot wait. I am here to show Nepal to the world, and 
how dramatic climate change is.” 
 
Guterres highlighted the “climate injustice” that made a country that 
does not contribute much to climate breakdown, but is one of the most 
vulnerable. From the Himalaya the Secretary-General will be going to 
Antarctica ahead of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai to draw 
attention to melting of the polar ice caps.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/antonio-guterres-agenda-in-kathmandu">António Guterres' agenda in Kathmandu</a> 
 
The Guterres visit has helped spread awareness of anthropogenic 
greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere, and the urgent need for 
drastic emissions cuts. He vowed to raise the issue of urgent support 
for the energy transition in developing countries, funds for 
adaptation, and to recover from destruction caused by weather 
extremes. 
 
We in Nepal already know that the glaciers are melting before our 
eyes, the question is how communities most at risk will adapt to 
disasters like landslides and overflowing glacial lakes. Who will help 
them cope with droughts and floods? How will millions of people 
survive heat stress and unlivable wet-bulb temperatures? 
 
The fact that Guterres visited not just the Everest region but also 
the Annapurnas on Tuesday showed the emphasis he placed on the climate agenda during his Nepal visit. The Annapurna Conservation Area is a unique model developed in Nepal by Nepali social scientists to support environmental protection through eco-tourism. 
 
At a time when we hear nothing but bad news, Nepal’s achievements in 
nature conservation despite its low economic development is a model 
for countries around the world. The country has met its target of 45% 
forest cover, and although we could move faster in promoting electric 
public transport, there has been progress in the past two years. By 
next year, Nepal will have surplus hydropower even in the dry season 
and can more rapidly replace LPG and other petroleum imports. 
 
Nepal has done all this without much help from the outside world. 
Indeed, while we highlight the need for climate justice and adaptation 
funds, Nepal has not waited for that support. But we can decarbonise 
much faster if green funds are more forthcoming. 
 
At a time when historical records for the earth’s energy balance, 
global average temperature, hurricane intensity, extreme rainfall and 
wildfires are being broken every other week it is farcical that COP28 
is being held in a country that is the world’s 5th largest exporter of 
refined petroleum products, and the summit chair heads the Abu Dhabi 
Oil Corporation (ADNOC). The greenwashing in the run-up to the Summit 
gives us little hope that we will move beyond the hair-splitting in 
the last COP between ‘phase-out’ and ‘phase-down’ of fossil fuels. 
 
Nepal and most other South Asian countries which are themselves at 
high risk from climate impact (Bangladesh and Maldives from sea level 
rise, Sri Lanka from weather extremes, India and Pakistan from floods 
and droughts, Nepal and Bhutan from melting mountains) have millions 
of workers in the Gulf states where it is already too hot to work in 
the daytime most of the year. 
 
After addressing a joint session of Nepal’s Parliament on Tuesday 
where he once more underlined climate action, the UN Secretary-General 
flew to Doha where he will resume fire-fighting the Israel-Hamas war. 
 
Despite the lack of closure for survivors and families of victims of 
Nepal’s own conflict, our peace process is in a lot of ways exemplary. 
The two former enemies are not just the state, but are coalition 
partners. The insurgents were demobilised, and a part of the militia 
was inducted into the national army – some of them are today actually 
in UN peacekeeping forces around the world.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/justice-delayed-justice-denied-byrx8a1c">Justice delayed, justice denied</a> 
 
Secretary-General Guterres acknowledged this in a speech after his 
visit to Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha: “Nepal is an example 
of a country that is not only able to make peace with itself but also 
contributes to peace in conflict regions around the world.”

He came, he saw, he left

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is arriving in Kathmandu on Sunday on a visit that was originally scheduled for mid-October, but was put off due to the Israel-Hamas crisis. Even during his visit he will be busy trying to find a path to peace in the Gaza war. &nbsp; The Israeli government has criticised the Secretary-General for remarks in the Security Council this week in which Guterres said the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October “<a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2023-10-24/secretary-generals-remarks-the-security-council-the-middle-east%C2%A0">did not happen in a vacuum</a>”.&nbsp; Israel took offence even though Guterres had added that the “grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas”. Israel’s censure of the UN Secretary-General’s carefully balanced speech to the Council is itself an indication of the extreme geopolitical polarisation over <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/as-in-nepal-thais-mourn-nationals-killed-in-israel">the Gaza war</a>. On his way to Kathmandu, Guterres will be stopping in Doha where he is expected to engage with Hamas’ Iranian mentors.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231028031036_52c1f0f8be09553e6f6a26831289b6600f4b5fd0181746432cf534b4d50cb3df.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20231028031036_52c1f0f8be09553e6f6a26831289b6600f4b5fd0181746432cf534b4d50cb3df" data-rendition-name="original" width="2478" height="1416" loading="lazy" alt="UN resolution"> <figcaption>An Emergency Special Session of the UN General Assembly on 27 October adopted a resolution calling for 'immediate and sustained humanitarian truce' in the Middle East. Even though it did not explicitly call for a ceasefire, 120 countries (including Nepal voted for the resolution) while most western countries either voted against or abstained. Interestingly, Bhutan voted for the resolution, while India abstained.</figcaption> </figure>  Though not directly involved, Nepal has been affected by the Israel conflict. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepalis-confirmed-killed-in-hamas-attack">Ten Nepali agriculture students were killed</a> by Hamas, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/waiting-for-bipin-joshi">one is still missing</a>.&nbsp; The brutality of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/war-in-israel-earthquake-and-grief-in-nepal">the Hamas raid</a> in which most of the 1,400 victims were civilians, including women and children, has been widely condemned. The Israeli response, however, has been disproportionate, asymmetrical, and indiscriminate. More than 7,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and many innocent women and children have been killed and injured. Even in purely strategic terms, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response will be militarily counterproductive for Israel. And what is puzzling is the West’s carte blanche to the IDF to continue its carpet bombing of Gaza. The western media’s partisan coverage of the conflict in the name of ‘balance’ is even more troubling. President Joe Biden possibly is driven by his re-election bid in 2024, and bipartisan domestic support for Israel. Western governments do not even want to use the word ‘ceasefire’, preferring to call for ‘a humanitarian pause’ to Israel’s bombing. There is a danger that António Guterres will be preoccupied with the deepening crisis in West Asia so that his two main agenda points in Kathmandu (<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/no-closure-after-nepal-s-insurgency">transitional justice</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/for-destruction-ice-is-also-great-and-will-suffice">climate change</a>) will be eclipsed. &nbsp; Guterres is scheduled to address a joint session of Nepal’s Federal Parliament on 31 October, and meet former Maoist commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal who is now prime minister.&nbsp; Dahal’s main purpose in inviting Guterres to Nepal is to get a UN stamp of approval to the transitional justice process. Survivors and families of the victims of war crimes have opposed efforts by the current coalition government to ram through <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-tj-bill-protects-perpetrators-shortchanges-survivors">a bill that would grant amnesty to perpetrators</a>. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on the Investigation of Enforced Disappeared Persons were led by political appointees and remain dissolved.&nbsp; Since the former enemies are now in government together, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/transitional-injustice-in-nepal">they do not want to rake up the past</a>. The Maoists have tried to make a distinction between ‘political murder’ and ‘criminal murder’, while state security says it was just responding to an anti-government insurgency.&nbsp; Guterres will have to impress upon his Nepali interlocutors that absence of war is not peace, and that there can be no peace without justice. Dahal, Deuba &amp; Co, on the other hand, will try to convince the Secretary General that Nepalis are ready to l<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/restorative-justice-for-peace-building">et bygones be bygones</a> and focus on economic progress, job creation and development.&nbsp; Western support for justice and human rights in Nepal <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepal-s-transitional-justice-and-the-west-s-recalibration">is not as robust as it used to be post-2006</a>. A weaker West, and ascendant India and China in Nepal’s neighbourhood may have emboldened Nepal’s leaders to determine that the geopolitical climate is conducive to conclude the peace process 17 years after the conflict ended.&nbsp; The current <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/forgetting-to-remember">Truth and Reconciliation Commission draft bill </a>allows pardons for murder, disappearances, sexual offences and torture. It legitimises the recruitment of child soldiers. And it is fuzzy on who should try such crimes.&nbsp; Allowing known perpetrators of war crimes on both sides to get away would reinforce the climate of impunity that has become even more evident after the recent presidential pardon for a convicted murderer and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-gets-gold-medal-for-corruption">political interference into police investigations into high profile corruption scandals</a>. A predecessor of António Guterres, Dag Hammarskjöld of Sweden, visited Nepal in 1961, and that helped give <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/putsch-ek">King Mahendra’s coup</a> some legitimacy. Guterres is in Nepal at a time when crimes against humanity are being committed in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/remittonomics-and-conflict">Gaza war and other conflict zones around the world</a>.&nbsp; The Secretary-General’s message in Kathmandu has to be: forgetting war crimes risks a repeat of war.