70 days, and counting

For the first time in decades, Nepal’s political structure is on the cusp of a major transition as the monopoly of the legacy parties is being tested by emerging political forces.

Whatever the outcome of the 5 March elections, the age of the Oli-Deuba-Dahal triumvirate will have to struggle to stay relevant in the post-GenZ phase. 

As Nepal’s milestone year 2025 came to a close, the three leaders are mounting a rearguard action to retain supremacy within their own parties, and in the wider polity for supremacy. But they do not realise that it is a lost cause — history has moved on.

GenZ youth were not behind the mayhem and arson of 9 September that brought down the UML-NC coalition, but the regime change that followed it bears their name. The new and alternative parties aim to carry their brand forward.

Another troika is emerging: that of RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane, Kulman Ghising of the Ujyalo Nepal Party and Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah. Talks among the three for some kind of electoral togetherness have sent tremors across the established parties.

Freshly released from prison on bail last week, Lamichhane was welcomed back to his party as the chair with open arms even though his reputation took a hit after he made a jailbreak during the September protest. 

“People really want change, and any change will do,” notes public policy expert Ashutosh Tiwari. “It’s not that Kulman, Balen, and Rabi will present a superior alternative, it’s just that they will present an alternative, which, at this time, is more than enough—it is much, much better than having forever having Deuba, Oli and Prachanda in governance forever.” 

Still, news of a potential partnership between the three must have come as a welcome new year message for Prime Minister Sushila Karki who has been under pressure from both GenZ factions and the UML-NC to put off elections for differing reasons.

Karki does not want anything to dim chances of polls, so it is looking unlikely that the Judicial Inquiry Commission formed to investigate the 8 September massacre and the destruction the next day will be naming names anytime soon.

Former PM K P Oli has shown no contrition for the state violence, and defied summons from the commission saying he would rather be shot than sit for cross-questioning.

The chances of the UML-NC strategy of reinstating the House and forming an all-party government is now looking slimmer, which is why they are now working on finalising the ticket list of candidates.

Some GenZ figures like Sudan Gurung also want the elections postponed (even if it means House reinstatement) perhaps because they need time to pull together their own party. But Gurung also seems inclined to support a partnership between Lamichhane, Shah, and Ghising.

Others like the GenZ Front and the GenZ Movement Alliance are for elections, while some youth have joined new alternative parties or are shopping for parties to join.

There is also wariness among some youth about the possible backing of the RSP for Balen Shah as a PM candidate. The RSP may feel it can piggyback on the mayor’s popularity and tempt him with a leadership role in case Lamichhane is barred from contesting.

Youth reservations are not unfounded. Any partnership between leaders like Lamichhane and Shah must not (just) be based on political opportunism, but a shared platform of good governance and service delivery. 

They must put their egos aside and temper their populist, divisive rhetoric — exactly the kind of political culture that they have been trying to change. 

The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two neighbours and the United States. The Chinese and American ambassadors have been recalled, and the Indian ambassador has medical issues. The Trump-Modi falling out could already be having an impact, as seen in the violence in Bangladesh, with Washington no longer regarding New Delhi as a regional hegemony.

Beijing appears especially wary of the interim government and the direction it is going. Aside from its suspicions of pro-Tibet antecedents of some GenZ figures, it has also taken umbrage at Chinese entities being dragged into the Pokhara airport payoff scandal. 

New Delhi, meanwhile, has been cosying up to the Sushila Karki administration, throwing its weight behind the March polls. In 2026, a lot will depend on the next pro-Trump US ambassador in Kathmandu.

The September movement will have meant nothing if we elect the same people who have led Nepal to democratic decline over the last three decades. However, Nepali voters in March will not just be swayed by changing the structure of politics, but also its culture. 

‘Nepal does not need to search for perfect leaders, it needs institutions capable of handling imperfect ones,’ wrote Alok K Bohara, at the University of New Mexico, in a recent blog post arguing that Nepal needs an ‘absorbent democracy’ with institutions designed to withstand governance failure without collapsing. 

Bohara continued: ‘The task is to rally around a civic campaign to design institutional architecture that can absorb failure, constrain abuse, and correct deviation. Let the system take care of behavior, rather than hoping that behavior will take care of the system.’

 Shristi Karki