Pulse of the people

If there is one thing that has been consistently true for the Nepali public, it is that despite war, corruption and governance failure, they are inherent optimists. They see the good even in politicians and bureaucrats who do not deserve it.

Ever since Himalmedia (the publisher of Nepali Times) started conducting public opinion surveys in 2004, respondents have shown dissatisfaction with Nepal’s rulers, a majority voting ‘None of the Above’ when asked for their party preference. Yet, in annual polls after that, they have always been hopeful about the future.

It still seems to be the case. The results of the latest public opinion poll by Sharecast Initiative show that most Nepalis are fed up with the chronic poor performance of  established political parties, but they feel the system still gives them the option of finding alternative leaders. In other words, Nepalis are angry but not angry enough to take to the streets.  

That should explain the apparent contradiction in their responses. Asked about the living standard of their families and the direction the country is headed, half the respondents said there had been positive improvement in their lives, but about the same number said they were disillusioned with politics and politicians.

The public’s message to the old parties is clear: perk up, or we will vote for alternative leaders like Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah or Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP. The country is ruled by a coalition of the two largest parties in Parliament, but there are no signs that they understand, or care, about the public mood. 

The Sharecast survey was conducted among 3,000 households across 52 districts in seven provinces between 1 December 2024 to 11 January 2025. In it, more than half the respondents said that their lives and that of their families had improved in the past five years. Another 16.2% said it was worse or much worse, and for 26.70% things remained the same.

Asked about the situation of the country, again half the respondents said it had improved, citing infrastructure development as the main reason. But 24.20% said it was the same, and another 24% said it was worse. They went on to list unemployment, poverty, lack of road access or maintenance, corruption, inflation, lack of quality education and political instability as their main concerns. 

A new global study has found that Nepal ranks fourth in the list of countries with remittance making up the highest share of GDP. This is unsustainable but remittances are propping up not just the national economy, but also individual households. Nearly 1 million Nepalis left the country for work or study in the past year, and about 40% of young Nepali men are not in Nepal. 

This could explain the seeming paradox between respondents saying their lives have improved, but that they are not satisfied with the political leadership. Indeed, over 70% of the poll respondents said foreign employment provided the best future.  

More than half the respondents felt that Nepal’s economy was in bad shape, while 24.2% thought that it was ‘very good’. Another 16.5% rated the situation as average. And since the economy is intrinsically linked to politics, a majority of respondents (68%) felt that Nepal’s politics is headed in the wrong direction. But most respondents (71%) seemed happy with the way the local government was performing, saying they received timely services at the local level.

Respondents were also asked to pinpoint why Nepal’s leaders kept being elected over and over again. They mostly blamed ‘vote buying’ (52.10%), and 24.10% said because voters were satisfied with a candidate’s performance, with 21.80% saying voting patterns were determined by party loyalty. 

With the government rocked by high-profile scandals exposed by the media, the Nepalis public seemed to be fed up with corruption in everyday life -- 80% of respondents said corruption was rampant, and only 0.70% said there was no corruption at all. Another 15% also admitted they had bribed government officials in the past year.

When Himalmedia conducted its 2015 annual nationwide public opinion poll just before the promulgation of the new Constitution, respondents were asked if Nepal should be a Hindu state. Slightly more than half wanted Nepal to be secular.

Interestingly, ten years later, the country is still almost equally divided between secularism and Hindu state – despite the popular narrative that if there was a referendum the country restoring the Hindu state would win overwhelmingly. Himalmedia polls after the abolition of the monarchy showed support for a return of kingship in the single digits, and although Sharecast did not have a question about it in the current poll, one can assume that support for the monarchy may have seen a slight increase as a reaction to the perceived incompetence of the established parties. 

For the past few years, Nepal has been ruled by coalitions, often with alliances between parties with diametrically opposing ideologies even if they do not stick to it. A majority of respondents in the survey (74%) were against electoral alliances. 

The current coalition came into existence supposedly to amend constitutional provisions regarding proportional representation, but the public perception is that K P Oli of the UML and the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba saw common cause in previous Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP investigating top leaders in both parties for corruption.

An amendment to the Constitution scrapping proportional representation would make it more difficult for smaller parties like the RSP to gain seats in the House, as well as women candidates and those from marginalised communities. Nearly half of the respondents (46%) said major amendments to the constitution were necessary. 

But what should be priority areas for the government? Controlling inflation, improving the economy, creating jobs, delivery and infrastructure, governance and social injustice were the obvious picks. Environmental problems and press freedom also made it to the list, but it was clearly not the top priority of most.

Trust in various institutions yielded some interesting results. As in previous Himalmedia polls, trust in the Nepal Army remains high (40.30%). Even the Nepal Police has recovered some of its respect (35.10%). As expected, people had a poor opinion of the office of the Prime Minister (15.30%), scoring even lower than provincial governments (20.30%). 

Mayors and their deputies scored higher on the trust-o-meter (36.30%), and civil society improved its standing (47.70%). The mass media always scored consistently high in annual Himalmedia polls in the 2019s, with 87-90% approval ratings. It went down in previous Sharecast polls where the distinction was not made between social media and mass media, but in the current survey mainstream media trust level is higher than any other institution at 57.50%. 

Previous surveys have shown that although 90% of those with Internet connection used social media platforms regularly, trust in its content was below 10%. For Nepal’s mainstream press, the lesson is clear: to maintain the public trust, it should strive to defend its credibility with greater professionalism. 

It also shows that an independent press still has a role in defending and improving Nepal's democratic system.