“Nuclear risks are rising again”

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during an official visit to Japan this weekend met Prime Minister Takaichi and President Tokayev and issued a joint statement on a ‘future-oriented expanded strategic partnership’. 

The statement reaffirmed a rules-based international order grounded in the principles of the UN Charter. At the United Nations University in Tokyo, Tokayev delivered a lecture warning that ‘nuclear risks are rising again’.

He referred not only to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki but also to Kazakhstan’s Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, where the former Soviet Union conducted more than 450 nuclear tests, arguing that both Japan and Kazakhstan are countries that know the devastating consequences wrought by nuclear weapons. 

He said practical steps must be steadily accumulated to advance nuclear disarmament and reduce nuclear risk. Tokayev also cited Kazakhstan’s decision to relinquish the nuclear weapons left on its territory after the Soviet collapse, suggesting that security should not depend solely on nuclear deterrence.

Kazakhstan has hosted meetings in Astana on 29 August, the date the Semipalatinsk test site was closed and which has been designated the International Day against Nuclear Tests to draw attention to the inhumane impacts of nuclear weapons and call for strengthening norms underpinning the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. 

These gatherings have included participation by civil society groups such as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and Soka Gakkai International (SGI).

The two leaders also welcomed plans to launch regular direct flights in 2026 and agreed to begin intergovernmental negotiations toward the conclusion of a bilateral air services agreement. In addition, the joint statement expressed an intent to exchange information and explore potential avenues of cooperation with the UN Regional Centre for the SDGs for Central Asia and Afghanistan, which was established in Almaty.

As major powers step up engagement across the region, Central Asia’s weight as a stage for diplomacy and trade has been growing. Leaders of Japan and the five Central Asian states met in Tokyo this weekend for a new Central Asia + Japan Dialogue (CA+JAD). 

They adopted the 'Tokyo Declaration,' which places as its core two  priorities: strengthening the supply-chain for critical minerals, and supporting the Trans-Caspian Corridor which links Central Asia with Europe without transiting Russia.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said the meeting reflected Central Asia’s strategic importance as a Eurasian crossroad and a region with mineral resources essential for decarbonisation and advanced industries. 

The Japanese government emphasised a practical, implementation-oriented approach — translating cooperation into deliverable projects. For Central Asian countries, the Trans-Caspian Corridor is also a means to expand transport options and reduce dependence on any single transit route. 

It can help attract investment for modernising ports, railways and customs systems, while increasing opportunities to capture transit and logistics revenues.

For Japan, corridor development and cooperation on critical minerals serve as a form of risk diversification in economic security. Japan aims to prepare for heightened geopolitical risk by diversifying both procurement sources and transport routes for critical minerals such as rare earths and lithium needed for batteries, renewable energy technologies and electronic devices.

At the Dec. 20 summit, President Tokayev attended alongside the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Prime Minister Takaichi noted that Central Asia’s growing population and rapid economic expansion have raised the region’s international profile, and stressed the importance of regional cooperation and engagement with external partners.

Japan announced the CA+JAD Tokyo Initiative, setting out three priority areas for cooperation: (1) green and resilience (including the energy transition, disaster risk reduction and supply-chain resilience for critical minerals); (2) connectivity (including the Trans-Caspian Corridor and A.I. cooperation); and (3) human development (including scholarship programs and cooperation in health and medical fields).

The Tokyo Declaration also explicitly set out the launch of the Japan–Central Asia Partnership for AI Cooperation, with a view to applying AI to resource development and related areas. 

The Tokyo gathering also underscored the reality of accelerating summit diplomacy around Central Asia. China convened a leaders’ meeting with the five Central Asian states in Kazakhstan earlier this year, and the United States invited the same five leaders to Washington in November.

Kazakhstan, in particular, has long pursued a “multi-vector” foreign policy—cultivating relations in parallel with competing major powers to preserve sovereignty and strategic options. The Tokyo agreements—combining diversification of transport corridors, expanded cooperation on minerals and technology, and the use of development cooperation through international institutions—align with this balancing strategy. 

(INPS Japan)