The world can act on climate without Trump

The nation which more than any other caused the climate crisis will leave it to the rest of the world to sort out the mess. That is a takeaway from the US election, and the COP29 that concluded in Baku.

US emissions are higher than China or India, but America will leave it to the victims of climate change to save the planet.

The UN’s climate summit in Baku that ended on Friday happened in a year with the highest average global temperature in the past 900 years. The meeting took place a week after a flood which took more than 200 lives in one of the world’s most developed states, Spain. 

Another 250 people died in floods in Nepal in September. Floods last year caused massive damage in Pakistan and China. Northern India experienced 52°C last summer in areas where very few people have access to air conditioners.

The bad news is that the world’s most powerful leader believes we should carry on with business as usual. The good news is that this matters much less than we tend to think.

Of course Trump’s victory will make it more challenging to find compromises on financing and other issues in future climate talks. Leaders will ask why their nation shall act or indeed pay, if the US does not. 

Global climate diplomacy will be in jeopardy. We will probably also see a rollback of the financial support for domestic climate action in the US introduced by Biden. Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, maybe even from the UN Climate Convention.

But still there is hope. China, India and Europe are leading on climate, not the US even under Biden. China is the indispensable nation for climate action, not the US. 

Last year, China contributed two-thirds of all global renewable energy. It produced 60% or more of everything green – electric cars, buses and batteries, solar panels and windmills, hydropower and high speed rail. China is also the world’s largest tree planter, by far.

India is aiming for 500 gigawatt of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. Prime Minister Modi is launching ‘green missions’, like a program for 10 million homes with solar panels. Indian states like Gujarat have massive green ambitions.

Indonesia, the second largest rainforest nation, has drastically reduced deforestation. Brazil is following. Europe is now surpassed by Asia as a climate leader. 

China, India, Europe and many more do not act on climate to please America. They act because climate breakdown is a threat to them, and climate action is an opportunity for green jobs, profits and prosperity.

The world can do well without the US. Secondly, powerful American states support climate action. California, New York and others will not abandon their green efforts, and fight Trump tooth and nail. 

Business is leading the charge, not the government. No major US business saluted when Trump last time took the US out of the Paris Agreement. American companies see opportunities for growth and jobs in the green economy. 

Trump has portrayed the shift to electric cars as ‘a win for Beijing’. The opposite is the case. If Detroit does not start turning out electric cars, China will capture the entire global market. The Chinese domestic car market is already bigger than America’s and it is battery-powered. 

US businesses are wary about leaving the market for electric cars or green energy totally in the hands of China.

It may be that the global anger and America’s falling out with Trump in the coming years will be exactly what the docile global green movement needs. Environmentalists will be forced to be even more people-centered.

A second Trump term may paradoxically create a climate for more activism. He strongly argued in his campaign that the US should focus on its own borders, not on everyone else’s. 

The time of the Neocons, both democratic and Republican, who could not see a war they did not like, may be over. Trump may focus US resources on real American foreign policy needs, not believing as the Neocons do that every square metre of planet Earth is a security risk.

Trump’s re-election will accelerate US decline as the dominant world power. His protectionist economic policy will make US businesses less competitive. Decreased migration will reduce economic growth. 

The global trend towards a multipolar world dominated by the Global South will speed up. After a century of US dominance in world affairs, the ascent of Asia is not necessarily bad for the planet. (IPS)

Erik Solheim is a Norwegian former Minister of International Development and Minister of the Environment, and served as Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme from 2016-2018.