The crisis in the Madhes need not be intractable. A resolution should be possible if the state concedes that Madhesi grievances are real and have to be corrected, their demands for rights and dignity have to be fulfilled and those who ordered and carried out torture and killings have to be investigated and punished.
If a solution means a new compromise on federal boundaries and agreeing to proportional representation based on population, the state has to be flexible on these.
But first the Madhesi Morcha has to end the blockade, dealign itself from interventionist forces and give up terror and violence. If they hope to bulldoze their way through unreasonable demands that seek to secure the interests of a neighbouring country than its own citizens, it will lose further legitimacy not just with the government but amongst the very people they claim to represent.
The question is whether the Morcha and its backers from within and beyond the borders care. They have quashed international law and diplomatic norms, abandoned politics of principles and have resorted to force, intimidation and bullying to get their demands met.
What is unraveling in the Madhes is plain blackmail. What started as a movement for rights has morphed into something sinister. How can the constitutional appointment for naturalised citizens be a Madhesi demand? A bunch of discredited leaders who have no support amongst ordinary Madhesis and were defeated in the last elections are using violence and terror to hold the entire region hostage.
There is a deliberate muddling of issues, valid and legitimate demands for dignity and rights have been hijacked by interest groups who are using the most divisive and violent means possible to do so, fuelling communal hatred and radicalism.
There is no pretense left. The movement is no longer about what the Madhes and Madhesis want, there is geopolitics at play. Madhesis want dignity and rights, they want a stable and peaceful Nepal where they can earn their livelihood without disruption.
Madhesis believe there is a constitutional and democratic means to achieve this and made this abundantly clear with their votes in the 2013 election. The Morcha on the other hand believes in terror, blackmail and raw power. It has no illusions, the alarmist calls for separatism hold no currency amongst ordinary Madhesis who know their interests and survival are tied to Nepal.
Working with a foreign country to enforce blockade against fellow Nepalis, inciting violence by offering cash prize for martyrdom, provoking police to react through targeted lynching, throwing petrol bombs at moving buses, setting people ablaze for carrying fuel are Morcha tactics. To support this group and say that it represents ordinary Madhesis and holds sole claim to their demands is deceitful and dangerous.