Structural problems

In 2023, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) conducted a Structural Integrity Assessment of 29,000 public buildings in 145 municipalities across Nepal. Only 9.4% of them were found to be safe. 

The study deployed remote sensing as well as engineers on the ground to assess the risk, and showed that more than half needed major strengthening, while 12.5% could be retrofitted. Another 12% would need immediate demolition, and 5% of the public buildings were sited in poor soil (below). 

After the 2015 earthquake, NDRRMA assessed 18,000 school buildings in the affected areas where over a million students were enrolled. More than half the buildings were found to be structurally vulnerable, while 30% of the schools with 184,000 students had been damaged. None of the classrooms retrofitted for seismic resistance collapsed.

The surveys prove that Nepal could have seen a catastrophic loss of children's lives had the 2015 disaster occurred on a weekday when classrooms would be full. 

National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET-Nepal) also surveyed hospitals, water supply and telecommunication in the early 2000s to see how Nepal would fare in an 8M+ earthquake. Even then, the data showed that over half of such infrastructure would be destroyed. Increased population density and multi-storey structures since then means the death and destruction could be much greater.

The studies also point to a critical lack of structural integrity of public buildings, emergency preparedness and response systems. They underscore Nepal’s limited capacity for search and rescue, a dysfunctional emergency operations centre, and poorly constructed houses and public buildings.

Ten years after the earthquake, most of these public buildings have been rebuilt or retrofitted, and there is general understanding that schools and hospitals at the very least need to be stronger. 

But much of this awareness and subsequent action is limited to the 14 districts affected by the 2015 disaster. The rest of the country, especially western Nepal where a mega-quake is long overdue, is woefully unprepared.

Globally, Nepal ranks 11th in the list of countries vulnerable to seismic hazard. Added to this is risk from climate breakdown. 

Nepal is disaster-prone, and preparedness is the first line of defense. Schools, hospitals and other public buildings need special priority not only because of the chance of mass casualties, but also because they can be shelters after a disaster strikes and hospitals need to be intact to treat the wounded. 

Nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 classrooms were damaged or destroyed in the 2015 earthquake. Another 1,000 government buildings were destroyed and over 3,000 were partially damaged, 1,211 hospitals and primary health posts collapsed. 

If it was not a Saturday, total fatalities would have been much higher than the official toll of 8,962. Apart from infrastructure, emergency preparedness includes stockpiling essential supplies for effective first response. In schools, this means immediate rescue and evacuation of children, and getting them safely to their families. 

Disaster preparedness education is in school curricula, but should also include safety instructions depending on the type of building and conduct regular emergency evacuation drills. 

Hospitals, doctors, nurses and paramedics will themselves be affected in a disaster, but must also treat and care for the overwhelming numbers after a quake. Health facilities must have functioning back-up power, and pre-positioned water, drugs, equipment. 

The suspension of USAID has had a direct impact on ongoing rebuilding and retrofitting activities across Nepal. 

One of the projects halted is for building 500 temporary learning centres in Jajarkot and Rukum where some 150,000 children were out of school after the 6.4M quake in November 2023. 

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Ten years after the 2015 earthquake, it is accepted that Nepal’s reconstruction efforts have been largely successful and relatively quick compared to disasters of similar scale in India, Pakistan, Iran and Haiti.

Nepal was lucky that many things helped reduce the loss of life on 25 April 2015. The magnitude was less than 8 Richter, the duration and frequency of shaking meant that most concrete buildings did not collapse. And the earthquake struck during daytime on a weekend which meant children were out of school. 

“If it were a working day, at least 10,000 children would have died, and another 7,000 government officers which would include security personnel, critical to rescue and relief,” says Anil Pokhrel, who till recently headed the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). 

In Nepal in 2015, nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 classrooms were damaged or destroyed. Some 1,000 government buildings were destroyed, over 3,000 were partially damaged. As many as 1,211 health facilities, including hospitals, primary health care centres, and health posts, were destroyed or damaged. 

The safety of public buildings is important not just because they involve a larger number of people, their continued functionality is even more crucial after a disaster. While schools serve as temporary shelters, hospitals become a battleground to save as many people as possible with limited resources, including doctors and nurses.

“The safety of public buildings during earthquakes is of utmost importance which is why their design and construction standards are much higher and stringent than those of regular residential structures,” says Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) – Nepal.

He adds: “But emergency preparedness and safety behaviour are as important. Students should be rescued and evacuated from schools, while hospitals should be equipped to handle an increased influx of people as well as provide uninterrupted services.”

Hospital Preparedness for Emergency (HOPE) is a four-day course developed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for effective management of disaster and public health emergencies at the health facility level.

Experts say the training, which was first implemented in 2004, was crucial in allowing doctors and nurses in Kathmandu hospitals like Bir and Teaching, to provide immediate and uninterrupted service in the aftermath of the earthquake. Such preparedness should be extended in other parts of the country, especially to health workers and facilities, including stockpiling essential supplies. However, similar support from USAID has now been terminated.

Sangeeta Singh is a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering, and was in Khokana for an assessment when the 7.3M aftershock hit on 12 May 2015. She ran out of a narrow alley directly into an open square. She recalls how, despite suffering much damage, traditional structures provided enough time for locals to escape, leading to fewer casualties. Community-designated open spaces, alternative routes and supplies of essential items also helped.

“We must allow local units of government in emergency response, implement building codes, and while we are at it, why not allocate some of the budget money to retrofitting instead of only building roads?” says Singh. “Ten years later, Nepalis have all but forgotten 2015, individuals and institutions flout building codes and the monitoring mechanism is not effective.”

In the past ten years, municipalities have been trying to enforce building codes more strictly in the 14 districts affected in 2015. But the same is not true for the rest of the country, especially the far west which hasn’t seen a major quake in over 500 years, and has accumulated enough stress to cause an 8M+ megaquake.

The level of unpreparedness was proven by how disastrous even the moderate 6.4M Jajarkot earthquake was in 2023, killing 153 people and injuring at least 375. Over 62,000 houses were destroyed or damaged, as well as 750 school buildings.

Earthquake-resistant designs must be promoted and deployed across the country, especially for schools built with heavy construction materials like stone and round slippery boulders. Bamboo, hollow concrete blocks and rammed earth technologies are better, and concrete buildings must be reinforced so they do not become death traps.

For a country as prone to multi-hazards, the government should implement proper land use with zoning. A recent example is Nepal Mediciti Hospital which was inundated in last September’s floods, disrupting medical care. The hospital was built on a floodplain.

As a former lakebed with soft topsoil and shallow groundwater table, particularly in the central and southern floodplain areas, Kathmandu Valley is prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking during an earthquake. 

One 2016 study said that 33% of the total area of Kathmandu Valley lies in a very high risk zone for liquefaction. Another study published in the journal GeoHazards in 2021 said that 60% of the hospitals, 64% of colleges, 54% of the schools and 42% of the road network in Kathmandu are in high liquefaction risk zones if there was a magnitude 8 earthquake. Furthermore, 78% of Kathmandu airport's area is similarly vulnerable.

The study recommends relocation of these facilities as well as other critical services, or at the very least, retrofitting. ‘The development of all these facilities should be carried out considering appropriate land use guided by the liquefaction risks to mitigate potential loss and proper functioning after earthquakes,’ it states.

Explains Sangeeta Singh: “In addition to structural safety and emergency preparedness, a policy to guide proper land use is the need of the hour, especially for urban centres. We must assess multi-hazard vulnerability, and conduct a safety audit for existing public buildings, our lack of preparedness is astounding.”

Former NDRRMA chief Anil Pokhrel adds that asset registry and an inventory of the safety status of public buildings are urgent must-dos. It is also needed in case of insurance payouts. Such a system could also help Nepal to quantify climate damage and, in turn, claim reparations.

“In many ways, we are better prepared after 10 years of the 2015 earthquake, we have much experience in rebuilding but we are nowhere close to where we need to be,” admits Pokhrel. “The risk is growing rapidly, our preparedness hasn’t kept pace.”