This time of year last year, the phone at the headquarters of Salute Gorkha Training Centre in Pokhara was ringing off the hook. Callers wanted to know if recruitment of Nepali soldiers into the Indian Army had started.&nbsp; This year, the phone has not rung at all. The office is quiet. Many young men from the mountains who had spent more than six months in training in Pokhara to be recruited as an Indian Gorkha soldier have given up. They are now trying their luck to find jobs in the Gulf. Even so, whenever retired Butwal-based Indian Army soldier Laxman Shrestha gets calls from his village in southeastern Gulmi, the most frequently asked question is: “Dai, has the recruitment process begun?" Shrestha retired four years ago after having served for more than 17 years in the Indian Army’s Gorkha Rifles, and currently operates a business in Butwal.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/in-the-line-of-fire">In the Line of Fire</a>, Editorial He also supports young people from his home village in the mountains who want to follow his footsteps. But with the uncertainty about India’s military reform plan called Agnipath, he is not able to give them a clear answer. The Indian Army suspended Gorkha recruitment for two years from 2020 to 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. But even afterwards, there are new conditions for applicants. Introduced last July, Agnipath only allows recruits aged 17.5 to 23 years old to be hired as soldiers for four-year periods, after which they will be discharged with a lump sum of Rs1.8 million, but will not be eligible for a lifetime pension. Only 25% of trained soldiers will be offered a 15-year extension after the initial four years. Recruitment did start in Butwal and Dharan, but the selection process was halted soon after by the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government, saying that Nepal needed further study into the scheme. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal">India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal</a>, Anita Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_09f7f816a810251d13ae1d820dcedaac6ec1f8ace21fc7ea66c1b9fb7647b9f4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2023081205080_09f7f816a810251d13ae1d820dcedaac6ec1f8ace21fc7ea66c1b9fb7647b9f4" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="434" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha training NT"> <figcaption>Photos: SALUTE GORKHA TRAINING CENTER</figcaption> </figure>  The decision was a blow to young Nepalis who wanted to be selected to the Indian Army. Some 306 applicants from the mountains of central Nepal had already enrolled at Salute Gorkha Training Institute in Butwal. Most are now trying to get an overseas job, and some want to try for the British Army. There are currently 4,100 Nepali Gurkha soldiers in the British Army, and 205 were &nbsp;selected this year from about 25,000 applicants, despite a long-running dispute over pensions. The British Army also recruits Nepalis on behalf of the Singapore, Oman and Brunei security forces. “The selection for the Indian army is easier than the British Army and the Singapore police. That is why many trainees who enrol in our institute tend to try for the Indian military,” explains Lokesh Thapa, director of Salute Gorkha Training Institute who has been training aspiring recruits for 13 years. “But with the future uncertain, we cannot enrol a new batch.” Trainees pay fees up to Rs80,000 each at the institute's branches in Butwal, Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Dang, Chitwan, and Dharan, and it is among 30 other similar centres.&nbsp; “The fees they have paid has gone to waste,” says retired Indian Army Junior Commissioned Officer Kul Bahadur KC. “They have nowhere to go and no one who can answer their questions.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tales-of-courage-and-suffering-cx95f89e">Tales of courage and suffering</a>, Nepali Times In February, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra paid an official visit to Nepal to discuss Agnipath among other things, but no outcome was made public. Former Indian Army Captain Chok Bahadur Gurung has made up his mind about what it means: “Agnipath has shown that India is ignoring the Nepali government.”&nbsp; Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal said he raised the Agnipath issue with Narendra Modi when the two met in New Delhi in May, but there was no joint mention of it. Even retired Indian Army major general Ashok Mehta who has served in the Gorkha Brigades is outraged. He told Nepali Times: “The existing recruitment system was overturned without notice or consultation with a strategic Himalayan neighbour with whom India claims special relations. India-Nepal relations are like between daju and bhai, but this was not very big brotherly.” A Tripartite Agreement in 1947 allowed the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the British and Indian Armies, but Nepali fighters went over to the British side even before the end of the 1814-16 war with the East India Company following which Nepal signed the Sugauli Treaty. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/gorkhas-on-the-frontline-between-india-and-china/">Gorkhas on the frontline between India and China</a>, Pratistha Rijal  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_e837cb3f4e428434db0bb72436e64ffd818300f24f3a44fea060e6b96429ba80.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2023081205080_e837cb3f4e428434db0bb72436e64ffd818300f24f3a44fea060e6b96429ba80" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha Training NT"> </figure>  By the end of World War II, there were 10 Gurkha regiments in the British Army, and six of them were assigned to India and four to Britain after Indian independence. India has since added another Gorkha Regiment. (India refers to its Nepali soldiers as 'Gorkhas', while the British prefer ‘Gurkhas’.) Former soldier Mukta Prasad Shrestha from Gulmi served 21 years as an Indian Gorkha soldier and still sees young people in his village training to do what he did as a young man. He agrees that the Agnipath scheme puts the livelihoods of Nepali soldiers at risk. &nbsp; “Well-to-do people do not join the military, those who have the responsibility to take care of families do,” says Shrestha. “Why else would anyone want to go off and fight for somebody else's land?” Sushant Singh, who served in the Indian Army for 20 years and is now the consulting editor of Caravan magazine in New Delhi, said in a recent podcast that a scheme like Agnipath erases the self-identity of retired soldiers. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-forgotten-gurkha-rebellion-e8z403ab">A forgotten Gurkha rebellion</a>, Ram Kandangwa  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_87bf1d4bb3d8a5256ef93bb4658a150fc6b82ae9d72a76e31180bc382da98249.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2023081205080_87bf1d4bb3d8a5256ef93bb4658a150fc6b82ae9d72a76e31180bc382da98249" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="645" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha Training NT"> </figure>  “Until now, those who joined the army served for 17 years, and left with experience and honour afforded by the training and the pension received,” Singh recently said on a podcast. “That honour makes all the difference between having been a soldier or a hired killer.” Nepal’s former ambassador to India Deep Kumar Upadhyay says India employed “crude diplomacy” by failing to discuss Agnipath with Nepal before its implementation as it involves soldiers from Nepal.&nbsp; “India should not have taken a unilateral decision on a recruitment process that does not justify terms set in the Tripartite Agreement,” says Upadhyay. “India must reach out to Nepal’s political leadership as well as ex-servicemen networks.” Maj Gen Ashok Mehta echoes this sentiment: “It is clear that India’s handling was presumptuous, and the government has opted to make Nepal-Domiciled Gorkha (NDG) recruitment not as a foreign policy imperative but a domestic employment issue. Now, India and Nepal must begin talks on Agnipath urgently to save the Indian Gorkha Brigade and the vital Gorkha connection with Nepal.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-far-so-good/collateral-benefits">Collateral benefits</a>, Lisa Choegyal The seven-point Tripartite Agreement ensures the rights of Nepali soldiers, including their salaries, pensions, financial compensation, as well as facilities for families. The fourth point of the agreement in particular stipulates that Gorkha soldiers should be allowed to serve for sufficient time to qualify for pension, a point former soldiers have said Aginapath goes against. Retired Indian Army Captain Raj Bahadur Thapa says that the 1947 agreement is outdated and must be replaced by a new agreement with conditions that are in the best interests of Nepal’s soldiers in foreign armies. “Otherwise, why send your young men to kill and die for a foreign land?” questions Thapa. A former serviceman who was with the Indian Army for over 20 years says Nepalis will not be included in the 25% who will be permanently retained by the military. “Nepali soldiers are always on a razor edge in the Indian military, they remember even our smallest mistakes,” he says. “We will be the first ones to be sent back.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205084_07f6c6ad6115234ae2873eec9e2ddf287a1209788d311e3529597de939e2c395.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2023081205084_07f6c6ad6115234ae2873eec9e2ddf287a1209788d311e3529597de939e2c395" data-rendition-name="original" width="956" height="538" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha training NT"> </figure>  Nepali soldiers have other concerns about what young Nepali men with military training can do when they return to Nepal in four years when the money they saved runs out eventually. Recruits within India seem to have similar qualms, and there have been protests there against the scheme after it was announced. Recruits from the first batch of ‘Agniveer’ had reportedly dropped out of training, and the Indian Army is said to be considering raising the permanent retention quota from 25% to 50%, and the length of engagement from 4 years to 7 years.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-military-migrant-economy">A military-migrant economy</a>, Amanda Chisholm The Modi government introduced Agnipath to reduce military expenditure and redirect the budget to modernisation of the armed forces. Critics in India itself have said that the scheme was introduced without any previous risk assessment or study into its impact on the Indian military structure. Bhakta Bahadur Bucha, who spent 22 years in the Indian Army, says Agnipath will push India’s Gorkha regiments into crisis since they are the military’s largest and most prestigious units. The seven Gorkha Rifles regiments have 46 battalions, 60% of whom are Nepali. Furthermore, there are 125,000 Indian Gorkha retirees who receive a pension. Says Bucha, “India must not forget that its Gorkha units are on the frontlines in Kashmir, Pakistan, Ladakh, Arunachal and Bangladesh. And a four-year limit to military service will affect their morale and commitment. Soldiers will not be willing to fight wars if the job is temporary.” Ethics and nationalism aside, recruitment into the Indian Army is also in Nepal’s economic interest. Nearly 18% of the country’s population is working and living abroad because of the lack of meaningful jobs back home, and the interest of young people to join foreign militaries stem from this desperation.&nbsp; Dhan Bahadur Thapa of the United Federation of Ex-Servicemen and Police Welfare who was once a Colonel in the Indian Army explains: “If recruitment into the Indian Army is stopped, it will have a direct impact on Nepal’s economy, where jobs are already scarce. If recruitment is not resumed, ex-servicemen are prepared to take to the streets.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/diary-of-a-nepali-soldier-in-france">Diary of a Nepali soldier in France</a>, Shree Bhakta Khanal

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Recruitment of Nepalis into Indian Army paused

Few things could be more incongruous for a country that prides itself in never having been colonised than for its citizens to fight in foreign armies. Yet, the tradition of recruiting Nepali soldiers that dates back to 1815 during Nepal's war with the East India Company continues to this day. Nepal’s leaders like to bash India and rouse the public with ultra-nationalist populism, but the fact is that thousands of Nepalis have fought and died for India in its multiple wars. Nepal’s soldiers in the Indian Army are at the frontlines against two neighbouring countries with which Nepal has friendly relations: Pakistan and China. Nepal should be grateful our neighbours do not hold that as a grudge against us. More than 45,000 young Nepali men lost their lives in the First and Second World Wars. Since the British Army recruited from only five ‘martial races’ in Nepal, entire villages in the mountains were devoid of young men during the last century.&nbsp; After India’s independence in 1947, Nepal, India and the UK signed a Tripartite Agreement allowing the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the Indian and British militaries without them being labelled ‘mercenaries’ even though, strictly speaking, that is what they were.&nbsp; The first choice for many young Nepalis is to join the British Army, and while 25,000 apply every year only 200 or so are picked. The Nepal government also bafflingly still allows the British to recruit on behalf of the security forces of Singapore, Brunei and Oman. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/recruitment-of-nepalis-into-indian-army-paused">Recruitment of Nepalis into Indian Army paused</a>, Jibraj Chalise and Durga Rana Magar How desperate must the search for jobs be when society and the state find it perfectly acceptable for its young men to lay down their lives for someone else’s country. That fact alone represents the single most glaring failure of the Nepali state to protect and provide for its citizens. For the past two centuries, Nepal’s rulers have found a convenient safety valve in sending citizens away so they do not have to take responsibility for their welfare by providing decent livelihoods and a chance for a dignified life at home. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230812040856_70d95961a49bea87582ccd0bf8561935d7cd4f24af1c962ed3be5b49e49952e0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230812040856_70d95961a49bea87582ccd0bf8561935d7cd4f24af1c962ed3be5b49e49952e0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha Trainees NT"> </figure>  Ironies of ironies: one of the 40 demands of the Maoists before launching their armed struggle in 1996 was for the government of Sher Bahadur Deuba to immediately terminate recruitment of Nepalis into foreign armies. Nearly 30 years and a decade-long war later, Deuba is now propping up a Maoist prime minister who has long forgotten about that demand, and the proposal to make a permanent Nepali UN peacekeeping force.&nbsp; The issue of foreign armies recruiting soldiers from Nepal has once more come up with New Delhi’s Agnipath scheme, and a halt to ‘Gorkhas’ joining the Indian Army. Indian Gorkha regiments today are a continuation of a service that Nepali soldiers have given for more than two centuries. Six of the 10 British Army Gurkha brigades went to the Indian Army because newly-independent India did not want to lose its Gorkha troops.&nbsp; They went into battle immediately after Partition in a confrontation with Pakistan. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal">India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal</a>, Anita Shrestha Thousands of Nepalis have been killed and wounded since. But last year India launched Agnipath reforms under which only recruits aged 17.5 to 23 years old can be enlisted for four-year periods, after which they are discharged with a lump sum but not eligible for a pension. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal had said he raised the Agnipath issue with Narendra Modi during his state visit to India in May, but neither mentioned it jointly. And there the matter rests: Nepal too timid to bring it up, and India too preoccupied with itself. There has been ambivalence about allowing Nepalis to fight in foreign armies, balancing the need for household and national income with the morality of exporting soldiers as state policy. For the present, the contribution to Nepal’s economy outweighs ethical concerns.&nbsp; The 42,000 Nepalis who serve across 46 battalions in seven Gorkha Rifles regiments in the Indian military, and the 125,000 pensioners earn Rs60 billion a year. Indian Gorkha servicemen have expressed concern over Agnipath’s impact on pensions of future recruits as well as their own pensions. Agnipath would provide Nepal the route to phase out mercenary mercantilism. However for now, Nepal’s strategy should be to lobby with New Delhi for the status quo under the Tripartite Agreement until it can provide alternative prospects. The economy of one country, and the security of another are at stake. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani/">From Nalapani to Kalapani</a> (Parts 1-5), Alisha Sijapati Kunda Dixit

In the Line of Fire

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234b89c7e80680e0c494bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2200" height="1410"/><figcaption>The 39 Gorkha Regiment marching contingent passes through the Rajpath during the 62nd Republic Day Parade-2011, in New Delhi on January 26, 2011. Photo: PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU INDIA</figcaption></figure>A Tripartite Agreement in 1947 allowed the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the British and Indian Armies, but New Delhi’s plan to reform its military has implications for Nepal’s economy and politics.However incongruous it may be in this day and age for nationals of a sovereign nation to be serving in the military of another country, enlistment overseas provides  income for tens of thousands of Nepali families as well as being an important source of foreign exchange for the country.Now, the Indian government is set to implement the ‘Agnipath Yojana’ to reduce its defence expenditure. The scheme will allow soldiers below the rank of commissioned officers across three branches of India’s armed forces to be hired only for four-year periods.There are an estimated 32,000 Nepalis in the Gorkha Regiments of the Indian Army, but many new recruits in recent years are Indians of Nepali origin. Pensions of retired soldiers is an important source of Indian currency for Nepal’s economy, which relies overwhelmingly on imports from India.Agnipath will mean that only a quarter of the 46,000 soldiers between 17-23 years hired in 2022 can stay on in the military after four years. Those being let go will get golden handshakes of INR1.7 million and will not be eligible for lifetime pension.As the clock winds down to its launch in September, there have been angry protests against Agnipath in India. But the Nepal government has been conspicuously silent despite the potential impact on recruitment, the economy, as well as implications for the 1947 Tripartite Agreement on the rights of Nepali soldiers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/he-shot-down-a-fighter-then-shot-to-fame/">He shot down a fighter, then shot to fame</a>, Gopal Dahal<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234bc9c7e80680e0c494cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="815" height="441">Says senior advocate Yuvraj Sangraula: “The Agnipath scheme violates the Tripartite Agreement signed at India’s independence which stipulates that pensions and other financial benefits be given to Gorkha soldiers as per the Indian Army Pay Code.”Recruitment of Nepalis into the British Army started even before the end of the 1814-16 war with the East India Company. Nepali soldiers have served in 10 Gurkha regiments of the British Army ever since, serving in both world wars, in the Malaya insurgency, and in Afghanistan. At least 55,000 Nepalis in the British Army have been killed in action, and many thousands have died fighting for India since 1947.Following Indian independence in 1947, six of the 10 regiments were assigned to India and four to Britain. India has since added another Gorkha Regiment, and there are currently 32,000 Nepali soldiers in 40 battalions. (India refers to its Nepali soldiers as 'Gorkhas', while the British prefer 'Gurkha'.)The Tripartite Agreement between Britain, India and Nepal spells out the rights of Nepali soldiers: their salaries, pensions, financial compensation, as well as facilities for families.The treaty guarantees equal basic pay for Gorkhas as other Indian soldiers, as well as pensions for servicemen who have served a minimum of 15 years.On 23 July, UML leader Bhim Rawal raised the Agnipath scheme in Parliament, asking for clarification from the government. He demanded that if Agnipath included Nepali soldiers, then Gorkha recruitment into the Indian Army be terminated.India earlier had informed the Nepal government that it would go ahead with recruiting Nepali youths in Butwal and Dharan. But after Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka held talks with Indian ambassador Naveen Srivastava on 24 August, the recruitment has been postponed in Butwal for now, and officials say that further discussions are underway.Experts, including former Nepali military brass, had called at the Prime Minister’s Office as well as the Foreign Ministry last week to urge talks with New Delhi about the impact of Agnipath on Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty/"> Looking back at the 1923 Nepal-Britain Treaty</a>, Santa Gaha Magar<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234be9c7e80680e0c494djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="976" height="549"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c09c7e80680e0c494ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="742" height="413">Lt Gen (Retd) Bala Nanda Sharma says both sides should sort it out: “Nepal should decide and state its position on the scheme in no uncertain terms after discussing its intricacies with India.”Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Ray confirmed that the scheme applies to recruitment of Nepalis, and also urged the two governments hold talks.“There is much confusion in Nepal about the terms and conditions of the Agnipath scheme. This reform will affect Nepal, especially its economy,” Ray admitted.International relations experts are surprised that as a signatory to the Tripartite Agreement, and as the country whose citizens will be directly impacted, the Nepal government was not involved in decision-making. Instead, New Delhi just asked for Nepal’s ‘views’ as recruitment under the new scheme was due to start.“As a member of the Tripartite Agreement, Nepal should have been asked for input prior to any decision by the Indian government,” says historian Pratyoush Onta. “It is clear that Nepal was given little importance in the new recruitment scheme.”Onta notes that India and Britain only tout the agreement when they have problems. “This has been happening for 75 years,” continues Onta. “Just like Nepal was not consulted when the British decided to scale back Gurkha recruitment, India now wants to stop giving pensions to Gorkha servicemen.”Writer and journalist Kanak Mani Dixit agrees that India going ahead with the military reform without discussing it with Nepal is a violation of the Tripartite Agreement.“When Nepal signed the agreement in 1947, Nepali servicemen were guaranteed a tenure, and all the benefits that came with it up to and beyond retirement, even if pension was not explicitly stated in the agreement.” Dixit says. “Now, the term has been reduced to four years.”However, ambassador Ray argues that Agnipath has not violated the Tripartite Agreement. “I have thoroughly read the 1947 agreeement,” he says, “There is no provision for pension in it.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c29c7e80680e0c494fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="516" height="350">Former Maj Gen Gopal Gurung of the Indian Army Gorkha Regiment concedes that there is no mention of pension in the 1947 agreement, and the Indian Army Pay Code that Nepal’s argument hinges on has been subject to multiple revisions over the years and does not guarantee pension for Indian soldiers after retirement.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/gorkhas-on-the-frontline-between-india-and-china/">Gorkhas on the frontline between India and China</a>, Pratistha Rijal“The reform should only be considered a violation had Indian and Nepali soldiers not been treated equally,” argues Gurung. “There has been a severe gap in understanding because of the lack of dialogue between the two countries.”There are 125,000 Nepali retirees from the British, Indian and Singapore security forces who received Rs61.9 billion in pensions in the last fiscal year. After Agnipath comes into force, that amount could decrease by a quarter. The remittance Nepalis in the Indian military send home will also go down now due to the four-year military term limit.Former Lt Gen Ashok Mehta of the Indian Army predicts that Agnipath will henceforth discourage Nepali youth from enlisting.“They will not want to risk their lives just to get a lump sum of money in four years when they could be earning that amount by working in Japan or the Gulf,” Mehta says.The Agnipath scheme has once more opened the debate about the absurdity of recruitment of Nepalis into foreign armies. Nepali soldiers in the Indian Gorkha Regiments have fought and died in wars against Pakistan, China and in Sri Lanka – all neighbouring countries with which Nepal has friendly relations.When the Maoists launched their insurgency in 1996, they presented 40 demands to Sher Bahadur Deuba who was also prime minister then. One of those demands was a stop to recruitment by Britain and India of Nepali nationals into their army.Twenty-six years later, Deuba is prime minister for the fifth time in a coalition with the Maoist party. Demand for jobs in the Indian and British armies and the narrative of valour in battle appear to be too powerful for Nepalis and the Nepal government to stop  enlistment into foreign armies.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani/">From Nalapani to Kalapani</a> (Parts 1-5), Alisha Sijapati

India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

On Saturday, Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar, a region where there are an estimated 2 million Nepalis working to send money home. In addition, thousands of Nepalis were preparing to board flights to Kathmandu from West Asian cities this weekend to vote in the 5 March election. Many are said to be stranded at various aviation hubs. A Qatar Airways flight from Doha took off just before the air space was closed, while Air Arabia and Kuwait Airways have diverted or cancelled flights. Nepalis in the West Asian region said things were relatively calm where they were, although some heard loud explosions at about noon local time. In Dubai, some thought they were Ramadan fireworks.&nbsp; In Kuwait, nearly 2,000 Nepalis working in the US military base as security guards and cleaners were evacuated before the strikes. In Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet naval base is located and which was hit by two Iranian missiles, workers contacted by Nepali Times said the situation was under control and the authorities had told everyone to stay indoors and not use highways. The conflict also coincided with the beginning of Nepal’s trekking and mountaineering season, and tourists were either on their way or planning to leave European and North American cities for Himalayan hikes. Most of them transit through Doha, Dubai or Kuwait and all three airports are closed. Turkish Airlines flights via Istanbul are still operating.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97" data-rendition-name="original" width="1864" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Qatar and UAE airspace closed"> <figcaption>Qatar and UAE airspace closed. Credit: Flightradar24</figcaption> </figure>  However, the main impact for the world could be a spike in the price of petroleum products if the strategic Strait of Hormuz is blocked. China relies on Iranian oil for their refineries, and Nepal could be affected indirectly if the economies of its neighbours are hit. Nepal imports all its diesel, petrol, LPG and aviation fuel from India which sources it mainly from the Gulf, and until recently from Russia. Petroleum makes up 25% of the value of all imports, and that is more than Nepal earns from all its exports. Saudi Arabia this year overtook the UAE as the main destination for Nepali workers, with the number now totalling 400,000. There are said to be as many in the UAE, and another 350,000 in Qatar. There are another 100,000 mostly women in Kuwait, and 50,000 each in Oman and Bahrain.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="West Asia Iran conflict"> <figcaption>Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar on Saturday.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal receives nearly $11 billion a year in remittances from overseas Nepalis (not counting India) through official channels, although the total is said to be much more. &nbsp;This makes up more than a quarter of Nepal’s GDP equivalent — one of the highest proportions in the world. More than half of the overseas remittances to Nepal comes from its workers in the Gulf, and it is the mainstay of the country’s economy. Nepalis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE alone send home more than $3 billion a year, much of that helping support their families back home. An average Nepali worker in the Gulf sends home nearly $2,500 a year, and this is spent mainly for household supplies, children’s education and healthcare. There are also an estimated 7,000 Nepali caregivers and healthcare workers in Israel, and most of them are women. The Nepal Embassy has asked Nepalis in Israel to take caution and move to bomb shelters.