<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57679c7e80680e0547e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="735"/><figcaption>UP IN SMOKE: Failure of successive monsoons led to massive fires across Nepal, shown in a NASA satellite image from 12 March 2009, which covered almost the whole country in smoke. There were similar fires this spring. Photo: NASA</figcaption></figure>The global media, world leaders, celebrities and environmental activists have expressed alarm at the mass arson in the Amazon rainforest, even as Hurricane Dorian and the heatwaves of this northern hemisphere summer underline the seriousness of the climate emergency.The Amazon spans nine South American countries, and the vast continental forest was a biodiversity hotspot even before the fires were started by farmers emboldened by Brazil’s President Jair Bolsanaro’s encouragement to clear trees to make way for farms.The Amazon acts as a vast sink for atmospheric carbon. Scientists have said that preserving forests and re-greening degraded land is the single most effective way to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, even as countries globally work on slashing emissions.Mass burning of forests not only releases more carbon into the atmosphere, but also decreases the capacity of the planet to absorb carbon dioxide. Besides this, forests also fulfil critical life-affirming functions, such as maintaining water quality, sustaining bio-diversity and regulating micro-climates and weather processes.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32836&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mustn't blame everything on Climate Change,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32864&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected,</a> Kunda DixitHowever, Brazil does not have a monopoly on forest destruction. In 2017 and 2018, massive forest fires in California raged for weeks, killing 100 people. Fires started by farmers clearing forests for agriculture and palm oil plantations in Kalimantan and Sumatra blanket Southeast Asia in smoke every year.Forest fires have also become more common in Nepal and across the Himalaya. In March 2009, following the failure of winter rains, enormous fires raged across the country destroying more than 105,000ha of forest land, and killing 43. (See NASA satellite image below.) In the past year there have been 2,771 fires in which 89 people have been killed, according to the National Emergency Operation Centre. Damage to property and livestock totalled Rs4 billion.Big multiple fires, like these during spring, lead to black carbon or soot being transported by prevailing up-valley winds to be deposited on the snow, reducing its ability to reflect sunlight, and increasing ice melt during the spring thaw. Measurements on the Yala Glacier in Langtang have shown that up to a quarter of the ice melt is now due to dirty snow — the rest is caused by rising global average temperatures.Increasingly rapid warming of the earth’s surface, erratic rain and droughts make forests more vulnerable to fires — even in Nepal’s successful community forests, which have helped increase the country’s total canopy cover.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32892&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tree-mendous,</a> Peter Gil<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/trees-politics-and-greed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Trees, politics and greed</a>, Mukesh PokharelThere has been a global effort to compensate countries, forest dependent people and local custodians for protecting forests instead of cutting them down. After a conference in Bali in 2007, Nepal got involved in the program Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). But despite the transfer of some global funds to forest groups, uncertainty about the mechanism, technical considerations around measurement, and avoiding loss of the carbon stock have prevented REDD+ from being more effective, efficient and equitable. Moreover, in countries like Nepal with leaky bureaucracies, the benefits rarely reach local communities and the real managers of forests.Other issues, such as unclear tenure rights, limited access to resources for forest dependent people, lack of governance reforms, centralising tendencies of forest departments, inequitable benefit sharing and the poor implementation of social and environmental safeguards, continue to plague programs like REDD+. Overharvesting, illegal logging, infrastructure and conversion to plantations make conservation more difficult when we need forests more than ever before.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-health-emergency/">Climate-health emergency</a>, Sonia AwaleForests have inherent intrinsic value: they cool the air, sustain biodiversity, provide food, absorb carbon and produce a range of other ecosystem services. Yet, rising temperatures will introduce new risks, making forest areas more susceptible to fires, including in Nepal. The land turns dry during non-monsoon months, fanning fires that in turn destroy vegetation and undergrowth, exposing more land surface to erosion during rains and increasing the sediment loads on rivers, leading to more flash floods.Already burdened with growing enough to feed their families, small-scale farmers across Nepal will find it increasingly harder to adapt to this changing reality. Without pragmatic measures involving communities and buttressing local capacity to address fires, the climate crisis will bring risks to the very idea of banking carbon in forests across the mountains, hills and plains.The Amazon fires should remind us of the urgency of formulating policies for least developed countries like Nepal, policies that emphasise building institutional capacity backed by resources to deal with potential large-scale forest fires. Without this effort, the past success of Nepal’s community forestry programs could be in serious peril.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-kathmandus-historic-roofscape/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Protecting Kathmandu’s historic roofscape</a>, Anne Feenstra<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tourism-aviation-and-carbon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tourism, aviation, and carbon</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-summit-leads-packed-un-agenda/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Summit leads packed UN agenda</a>, Thalif DeenAjaya Dixit is research adviser at the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET-Nepal) and contributes this column Climate for Change monthly.  This story is part of <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/world-joins-to-cover-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covering Climate Now</a>, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1084x550

It's a jungle out there in Nepal and the Amazon

In <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Way-Border-Travels-around-frontiers/dp/9937933005" target="_blank" rel="noopener">By the Way of the Border: Travels around the frontiers and beyuls of Nepal</a>, Maximillian Mørch tells the story of not just <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/overkill-on-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s mountains</a> but of the people who call them home, using descriptions that paint a vivid picture of his travels and help the reader to experience the journey through his eyes.Mørch chronicles his adventures around the beyuls (holy hidden valleys) of Nepal, ranging from Kalanga to Hile, during his time as a postgraduate student at Tribhuvan University in 2017.Filled with extensive background research of the places he visited and of their inhabitants, the book acts as an abridged history that spans both the social and geographical changes of the region. Mørch also covers the symbolism and history of the traditions practiced by the people he meets, which could be useful to foreigners who wish to learn more about Nepal beyond Kathmandu.Read also:   <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32513&amp;preview_nonce=bb487296ac&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freak me out</a>, Marty LoganThe book is structured according to the regions Mørch visits, with a geographical area as the focus of each chapter. This makes the book an easy read and also allows for quicker comparison of the places he visits. Each chapter also contains photos taken by Mørch, which helps readers to visualise his journey and provides a feel of the place.While remaining reflexive of his position as an outsider, Morch also shares his personal experience and his interactions with the locals, which allows him to make interesting observations about the various places and people he encounters. For one, he acknowledges the rose-tinted glasses via which he romanticises his travels, a position he argues most westerners share when writing about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-we-climb-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">their experiences of the mountains</a>.Although he intends it to be a collection of tales from his journeys, Mørch's book does not fit into a particular genre. The mixture of history, personal experiences and observations does not make it a coherent read but rather a khichdi (mishmash) that seems to contain all the right elements for a good book, but which is unable to balance them.By the Way of the Border: Travels around the froentiers and beyuls of NepalMaximilian MørchVajra Books, Kathmandu2019198 pagesRs 800		
										<img width="300" height="325" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a56fc9c7e80680e0547b6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Moreover, while he certainly is more thoughtful about his interactions with locals than other western authors, there are numerous instances where he lapses back into similar perspectives. Considering his time in Nepal and his proficiency with the language, Morch is in a position to both be familiar and unfamiliar in Nepal: elaborating on these experiences would have allowed for a more unique experience for the readers.Nonetheless, Morch has accomplished what he set out to do — provide an insight into areas scarcely covered by travel literature on Nepal while capturing the lives of the very people who call those places their home. Rishabh Lama is currently enrolled in Masters in International Business at the Warwick Business School in the UK.

Tales from roads less travelled​

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a56bf9c7e80680e0547a1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1271"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>Agroup of young overseas Nepalis based in the UK wanted to invest in cloud computing in Nepal. They were already doing work for Amazon, Microsoft and Alibaba and were attracted by Nepal’s lower labour cost, as well as the availability of professional software engineers.It took one year for them to just register the company. In that same time, a company they set up in Bangladesh was not only registered, but had already started its work. In Nepal, they were given the runaround, sent from one ministry to another, and spent a year explaining what cloud computing was.After much to-ing and fro-ing the company was finally registered, and once fully operational it will employ 500 young Nepali IT engineers and spend more than $100,000 a month here.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-youd-like-to-do-business-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">So you'd like to do business in Nepal?</a>, Ritu Pradhan Malla<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/outdated-laws-limited-ecommerce-hold-back-tech-industry%20,3547" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu's Silicon Alley and the Law</a>, Sonia Awale“Not only does Nepal not even have rules about cloud computing, people in government have no idea what it is. If this goes on, no foreign investors are going to come here to invest in information technology,” said an investor involved in the project.According to the National Planning Commission, Nepal needs Rs20.25 trillion worth of investment to reach the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in 10 years. While most of these investments will have to be in infrastructure and transportation, the country needs to make it easier for foreign investors to bring in new technology and resources so Nepal can leapfrog into the IT age.However, as our example shows, Nepal does not seem to be technically and mentally prepared for IT investors. Talk earlier this year about the need to register social media platforms before they can operate here shows how regressive the government’s mentality is.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Invest in investment</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/overseas-nepalis-are-not-impressed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Overseas Nepalis are not impressed</a>, Sewa BhattaraiNone of the multinational giants involved in IT do all their work at headquarters. They outsource it to parts of the world with lower costs and know-how, like Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia or India. Those countries have given IT investors tax holidays, as well as streamlined repatriation of profits. The greatest potential for foreign investment in Nepal is in the IT sector — in third-party contracts for developing apps, web design and maintenance, animation, digital mapping, etc.Nepal has competitive labour costs, and the country produces 7,500 IT graduates a year. We have to cash in on this potential, which would provide jobs for youth who would otherwise emigrate to find work. But first, we need to streamline the bureaucracy and legal process, and update our investment laws.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-to-curb-corruption-before-wooing-investors/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal has to curb corruption before wooing investors</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/animated-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Animated in Nepal</a>, Sikuma Rai

Can Nepal invest in the cloud?

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

amazon