In 2023, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) conducted a Structural Integrity Assessment of 29,000 public buildings in 145 municipalities across Nepal. Only 9.4% of them were found to be safe.&nbsp; The study deployed remote sensing as well as engineers on the ground to assess the risk, and showed that more than half needed major strengthening, while 12.5% could be retrofitted. Another 12% would need immediate demolition, and 5% of the public buildings were sited in poor soil (below).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250419030456_bc5ba9d543d872871d015cb2129406c690a84583efc72fb795ae682a9ca6ae63.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250419030456_bc5ba9d543d872871d015cb2129406c690a84583efc72fb795ae682a9ca6ae63" data-rendition-name="original" width="517" height="511" loading="lazy" alt="public buildings and earthquakes"> <figcaption>Data: NDRRMA</figcaption> </figure>  After the 2015 earthquake, NDRRMA assessed 18,000 school buildings in the affected areas where over a million students were enrolled. More than half the buildings were found to be structurally vulnerable, while 30% of the schools with 184,000 students had been damaged. None of the classrooms retrofitted for seismic resistance collapsed. The surveys prove that Nepal <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">could have seen a catastrophic loss of children's lives</a> had the 2015 disaster occurred on a weekday when classrooms would be full.&nbsp; National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET-Nepal) also surveyed hospitals, water supply and telecommunication in the early 2000s to see how Nepal would fare in an 8M+ earthquake. Even then, the data showed that over half of such infrastructure would be destroyed. Increased population density and multi-storey structures since then means the death and destruction could be much greater. The <a href="https://bipad.gov.np/uploads/publication_pdf/Nepal_Disaster_Report_Final_2024.pdf">studies</a> also point to a critical lack of structural integrity of public buildings, emergency preparedness and response systems. They underscore Nepal’s limited capacity for search and rescue, a dysfunctional emergency operations centre, and poorly constructed houses and public buildings. Ten years after the earthquake, most of these public buildings have been rebuilt or retrofitted, and there is general understanding that schools and hospitals at the very least need to be stronger.&nbsp; But much of this awareness and subsequent action is limited to the 14 districts affected by the 2015 disaster. The rest of the country, especially western Nepal <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap">where a mega-quake is long overdue</a>, is woefully unprepared. Globally, Nepal ranks 11th in the list of countries vulnerable to seismic hazard. Added to this is risk from climate breakdown.&nbsp; Nepal is disaster-prone, and preparedness is the first line of defense. Schools, hospitals and other public buildings need special priority not only because of the chance of mass casualties, but also because they can be shelters after a disaster strikes and hospitals need to be intact to treat the wounded.&nbsp; Nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336">classrooms were damaged or destroyed in the 2015 earthquake</a>. Another 1,000 government buildings were destroyed and over 3,000 were partially damaged, 1,211 hospitals and primary health posts collapsed.&nbsp; If it was not a Saturday, total fatalities would have been much higher than the official toll of 8,962. Apart from infrastructure, emergency preparedness includes stockpiling essential supplies for effective first response. In schools, this means immediate rescue and evacuation of children, and getting them safely to their families.&nbsp; Disaster preparedness education is in school curricula, but should also include safety instructions depending on the type of building and conduct regular emergency evacuation drills.&nbsp; Hospitals, doctors, nurses and paramedics will themselves be affected in a disaster, but must also treat and care for the overwhelming numbers after a quake. Health facilities must have functioning back-up power, and pre-positioned water, drugs, equipment.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">The suspension of USAID</a> has had a direct impact on ongoing rebuilding and retrofitting activities across Nepal.&nbsp; One of the projects halted is for building 500 temporary learning centres in Jajarkot and Rukum where some 150,000 children were out of school after the 6.4M quake in November 2023.&nbsp; ---  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250419030456_3e0b8bc3c11aa56ca2295665d4d7f93cab6247d9fec41d5a617ff52002070622.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250419030456_3e0b8bc3c11aa56ca2295665d4d7f93cab6247d9fec41d5a617ff52002070622" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="school buildings and earthquakes"> <figcaption>LESSONS NOT LEARNT: Nava Adhasha Secondary School at Kathmandu Darbar Square was severely damaged in the 2015 earthquake but classes are being held in it. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Ten years after the 2015 earthquake, it is accepted that Nepal’s reconstruction efforts have been largely successful and relatively quick compared to disasters of similar scale in India, Pakistan, Iran and Haiti. Nepal was lucky that many things helped reduce the loss of life on 25 April 2015. The magnitude was less than 8 Richter, the duration and frequency of shaking meant that most concrete buildings did not collapse. And the earthquake struck during daytime on a weekend which meant children were out of school.&nbsp; “If it were a working day, at least 10,000 children would have died, and another 7,000 government officers which would include security personnel, critical to rescue and relief,” says <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible">Anil Pokhrel</a>, who till recently headed the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).&nbsp; In Nepal in 2015, nearly 8,000 schools and 30,000 <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepal-s-schools">classrooms were damaged or destroyed</a>. Some 1,000 government buildings were destroyed, over 3,000 were partially damaged. As many as 1,211 health facilities, including hospitals, primary health care centres, and health posts, were destroyed or damaged.&nbsp; The safety of public buildings is important not just because they involve a larger number of people, their continued functionality is even more crucial after a disaster. While schools serve as temporary shelters, hospitals become a battleground to save as many people as possible with limited resources, including doctors and nurses. “The safety of public buildings during earthquakes is of utmost importance which is why their design and construction standards are much higher and stringent than those of regular residential structures,” says Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) – Nepal. He adds: “But emergency preparedness and safety behaviour are as important. Students should be rescued and evacuated from schools, while hospitals should be equipped to handle an increased influx of people as well as provide uninterrupted services.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025041904040_a1dd53b921ef75de2ccdf8b513d9fc959ea73c8267d50b9b57013412e07379b5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025041904040_a1dd53b921ef75de2ccdf8b513d9fc959ea73c8267d50b9b57013412e07379b5" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="hospitals and earthquakes"> <figcaption>EMERGENCY CARE: Hospitals need to be prepared to manage existing patients and an increased influx of people while providing uninterrupted service in the aftermath of an earthquake. Photo: SONIA AWALE</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/index.php/event/eventdetail/eventid-595#:~:text=HOPE%20course%20deliberates%20about%20the,disaster%20and%20mass%20casualty%20incidents.">Hospital Preparedness for Emergency (HOPE)</a> is a four-day course developed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for effective management of disaster and public health emergencies at the health facility level. Experts say the training, which was first implemented in 2004, was crucial in allowing doctors and nurses in Kathmandu hospitals like Bir and Teaching, to provide immediate and uninterrupted service in the aftermath of the earthquake. Such preparedness should be extended in other parts of the country, especially to health workers and facilities, including stockpiling essential supplies. However, similar support from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">USAID has now been terminated</a>. Sangeeta Singh is a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering, and was in Khokana for an assessment when the 7.3M aftershock hit on 12 May 2015. She ran out of a narrow alley directly into an open square. She recalls how, despite suffering much damage, traditional structures provided enough time for locals to escape, leading to fewer casualties. Community-designated open spaces, alternative routes and supplies of essential items also helped. “We must allow local units of government in emergency response, implement building codes, and while we are at it, why not allocate some of the budget money to retrofitting instead of only building roads?” says Singh. “Ten years later, Nepalis have all but forgotten 2015, individuals and institutions flout building codes and the monitoring mechanism is not effective.” In the past ten years, municipalities have been trying to enforce building codes more strictly in the 14 districts affected in 2015. But the same is not true for the rest of the country, especially the far west which hasn’t seen a major quake in over 500 years, and has <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/past-disasters-foretold">accumulated enough stress to cause an 8M+ megaquake</a>. The level of unpreparedness was proven by how disastrous even the moderate 6.4M Jajarkot earthquake was in 2023, killing 153 people and injuring at least 375. Over 62,000 houses were destroyed or damaged, as well as 750 school buildings. Earthquake-resistant designs must be promoted and deployed across the country, especially for schools built with heavy construction materials like stone and round slippery boulders. Bamboo, hollow concrete blocks and rammed earth technologies are better, and concrete buildings must be reinforced so they do not become death traps. For a country as prone to multi-hazards, the government should implement proper land use with zoning. A recent example is Nepal Mediciti Hospital which was inundated in last September’s floods, disrupting medical care. The hospital was built on a floodplain. As a former lakebed with soft topsoil and shallow groundwater table, particularly in the central and southern floodplain areas, Kathmandu Valley is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-of-high-rises">prone to liquefaction</a> and excessive shaking during an earthquake.&nbsp; <a href="http://conference.ioe.edu.np/publications/ioegc2016/IOEGC-2016-03.pdf">One 2016 study</a> said that 33% of the total area of Kathmandu Valley lies in a very high risk zone for liquefaction. <a href="https://dpnet.org.np/public/uploads/files/geohazards-02-00009%202021-12-16%2007-17-20.pdf">Another study</a> published in the journal GeoHazards in 2021 said that 60% of the hospitals, 64% of colleges, 54% of the schools and 42% of the road network in Kathmandu are in high liquefaction risk zones if there was a magnitude 8 earthquake. Furthermore, 78% of Kathmandu airport's area is similarly vulnerable. The study recommends relocation of these facilities as well as other critical services, or at the very least, retrofitting. ‘The development of all these facilities should be carried out considering appropriate land use guided by the liquefaction risks to mitigate potential loss and proper functioning after earthquakes,’ it states. Explains Sangeeta Singh: “In addition to structural safety and emergency preparedness, a policy to guide proper land use is the need of the hour, especially for urban centres. We must assess multi-hazard vulnerability, and conduct a safety audit for existing public buildings, our lack of preparedness is astounding.” Former NDRRMA chief Anil Pokhrel adds that asset registry and an inventory of the safety status of public buildings are urgent must-dos. It is also needed in case of insurance payouts. Such a system could also help Nepal to quantify climate damage and, in turn, claim reparations. “In many ways, we are better prepared after 10 years of the 2015 earthquake, we have much experience in rebuilding but we are nowhere close to where we need to be,” admits Pokhrel. “The risk is growing rapidly, our preparedness hasn’t kept pace.”&nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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Structural problems

<img width="500" height="750" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043d9c7e80680e0b284fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043f9c7e80680e0b2850jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photos: BIKRAM RAI/NEPALI TIMESEarthquakes are inevitable in Nepal. It is not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’. And ‘when’ was 2:28PM on 15 January 1934. It was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">11:56AM on 25 April, 2015</a>. Another memorable and tragic date in future is certain.But Nepalis have short memories. As long as aftershocks shook us, we were reminded about the horrors. But seven years after 2015, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tall-order/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the fear has evaporated</a>.This is not panic-mongering, or crying wolf. It is reality: every part of the central Himalaya is hit by a megaquake above 8 magnitude every 500 years or so, and a moderate intensity quake every 100 years.The 2015 disaster was not a Big One, 1934 was. Nonetheless, both released some of the built-up tectonic tension underneath us. What worries Himalayan seismologists is that there has been no <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">major earthquake in western Nepal</a> in the last 500 years. The rock strata beneath are stretched to breaking point.Experts tell us that if an 8M earthquake strikes in this seismic gap between Pokhara and Dadeldhura, it will also rock Kathmandu and be even more damaging than 2015.That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">7.8M earthquake seven years ago</a> was comparable to the 7.7M quake in Gujarat in 2001, and the 7.6M temblor in 2005 in Kashmir. In 2015, Nepal saw greater physical damage, but India and Pakistan had much higher casualties. One reason was that we were lucky 25 April 2015 was a Saturday, and students were not in classrooms.To mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 15 January, we recap the past seven years. There is some good news: over 80% of reconstruction is complete. Nepal’s recovery has been smoother than other developing countries hit by mega disasters.  Despite initial delays due to political muddles and the Blockade, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reconstruction in most sectors</a> picked up in 2016. Today, only health facilities and heritage sites are lagging at about 65% completion. Most rebuilt homes follow national seismic resistance guidelines because masons were trained, and there was monitoring before grants were released in installments.However, reconstruction in Kathmandu and other towns have not even passed the 60% mark, and could take another five years. The Rs300,000 reconstruction grant was just not enough for families to rebuild urban homes. More worrisome is that whatever has been rebuilt in Kathmandu Valley mostly flout building codes and permits.The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gongabu neighbourhood saw 160 deaths</a> in 2015, most of them were crushed under illegally built concrete structures. Most of those high rises have been rebuilt using the same faulty techniques.Except in Gongabu, most concrete structures survived the 2015 quake in Kathmandu. This has <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced public misconception</a> that cement houses, regardless of how they are built, are stronger than brick and mortar ones.However, seismologists say that if the tremors in 2015 were only a few seconds longer and the magnitude slightly higher, many of Kathmandu’s concrete buildings would have also collapsed. They are unlikely to be spared in the next big one.Seven years after the earthquake, it is back to business as usual. In fact, Kathmandu is now more dangerous because it is even more densely packed, and there are more multi-storey blocks. Clearly, awareness about earthquakes has not translated into safer construction — we have forgotten that earthquakes do not kill people, poorly built structures do.Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET) tells us that building codes need to be strictly enforced with stringent monitoring mechanisms. Municipalities must be stricter with building permits.Next, masons and concrete moulding workers need skills upgrading in earthquake resistant building technology. Security personnel now need <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">training in search and rescue</a> under collapsed concrete structures.Shrestha says schools, hospitals and public buildings need to be retrofitted urgently. Many schools NSET had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">helped retrofit</a> withstood the 2015 earthquake, and this model needs to be replicated across western Nepal.Nepal’s towns are losing open spaces, which are vital as shelters in the aftermath of future earthquakes. Kathmandu must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-artists-butterfly-effect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">protect remaining open spaces</a>, and these efforts need to be scaled up not just for earthquake safety but also to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">restore the city’s lungs</a>.   Preparedness will mean life or death for all Nepalis, not just for those in the seismic gap in the western part of the country. This should be the main message on the National Earthquake Safety Day. Earthquakes are beyond our control, but we can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">make ourselves safer</a> when they happen.Sonia Awale

Lessons still not learnt

As they walk along the dark, narrow alleys Dutch architect Anne Feenstra and structural engineer Amshu Bhattarai, are shocked. Despite the warning of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/photos-nepal-earthquake-2015,2207">2015 earthquake</a>, much of the new construction flouts basic architectural codes and engineering features. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca749c7e80680e02f310jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101"></div> The two stroll from one densely-packed town square to the next, and their expert eyes spot structural faults and vulnerabilities in buildings in which there are multiple families living in partitioned flats. Some have concrete floor additions on top of old brick mud walls, others have cantilevered rooms jutting out and overhanging the street below. Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4254&amp;preview=true">Mind the gap</a>, Editorial <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4270&amp;preview=true">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Rai “Here, in this one, the lesson is never to copy and paste,” says Feenstra, pointing to a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Raze-retrofit%20-or-rebuild,3963">Rana era home</a> with its walls and windows severely out of alignment. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca759c7e80680e02f311jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1204"> </div> Malla period traditional builders interlocked the timber and stones to create flexible but strong earthquake resistant structures. Feenstra explains that the Ranas were more interested in external stucco decoration and not strength, which is why a disproportionate number of Rana-era buildings were damaged three years ago. Although most of the houses that collapsed in Kathmandu in 2015 had load-bearing walls with brick-and-mortar masonry, a slightly stronger earthquake that had lasted longer with higher amplitude of shaking would have brought down many concrete pillar buildings as well. Amshu Bhattarai is with the Department of Urban Development and Building Construction (DUDBC) and says the fact that cement buildings survived has given people <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251">a false belief that they are stronger.</a> <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca779c7e80680e02f312jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1300" height="828"> </div> “Some of the concrete pillar buildings like this one here are constructed with just four beams in each corner, this can have disastrous consequences in case of a future bigger earthquake,” Bhattarai explains, pointing to a new building coming up near Mangal Bazar. Lack of urban planning, flouting of building codes, and poor quality construction materials plagued structural safety in Kathmandu Valley even before the earthquake. Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/earthquake-doesnt-kill-people-corruption-does/" target="_blank">Earthquake doesn’t kill people, corruption does</a>, From the Nepali Press But three years later, it looks like residents have got over the initial shock of the quake, and have forgotten about safety again. It does not help that the municipal bureaucracy, lack of trained construction workers, and little awareness in the public have made it easy to flout safety codes. Sharing his field experience from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/crumbling-history-nuwakot,3698">Nuwakot</a> and Kathmandu, Bhattarai explains: “Most people don’t know that in order to qualify for compensation, they must work with a government certified contractor or engineer to rebuild their houses, otherwise they won’t be eligible for the compensation even if they have already built their homes.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFUMNb7IL0&amp;feature=youtu.be That knowledge gap extends to technicians and building contractors as well. Many builders fail to abide by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674">construction guidelines</a> and have improper joints, don’t insert enough iron rods to give beams and columns required strength, do not mix cement in the proper way, and do not allow enough time for curing. Population pressure due to rampant urbanisation, greed of flat-owners and the need to cut costs may turn most of old Kathmandu Valley structures into death traps in the next big earthquake. “This is actually very badly mixed concrete, it is too sandy and does not even bind well together,” says Feenstra, pointing out a poorly patched wall, with chunks of cement falling off. As the architects exit a narrow alley, they come across a man praying at a roadside shrine, rubbing vermilion on his door frame to protect his home which was badly damaged in the 2015 quake and still propped up by timber beams. Asks Feenstra: “If you have a chance to create a safe home for your family, would you do many pujas or would you rather talk to a structural engineer?” Read Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930">Unnatural disaster</a>, Editorial <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">Preparing to be prepared</a>, Kunda Dixit

How prepared are we for the next big one?

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.