<figure><img width="1802" height="1192" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414114/63723d229c7e80680e0c9659jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: WFP / Srawan Shrestha</figcaption></figure>Disaster response usually is just that: responding to disasters after they happen. But with better forecasting, communities can get help before weather extremes induced by the climate crisis unleash floods.October’s unseasonal rains in Nepal was not a surprise, meteorologists using weather modelling had warned of unusually heavy unseasonal post-monsoon downpours. This allowed relief agencies and the government to rush aid to the remote Karnali region of western Nepal. The World Food Programme (WFP) with support from the German government distributed emergency cash, early warning information and other assistance to 3,000 households deemed to be living in high-risk areas.Even so, nearly 100 people were killed when landslides and flash floods hit settlements in the Himalayan foothills in early October, and the heavy rain destroyed ready to harvest paddy in large parts of Nepal. It is called ‘anticipatory action’, and is an innovative new approach to disburse humanitarian aid before a weather-related disaster hits communities that depend on subsistence agriculture. More than 15,000 people in the Karnali Basin benefited from the Rs15,000 cash entitlements per household to help soften the blow of the climate-related disaster.“With reliable forecasts, it is increasingly possible to anticipate extreme weather events and take necessary action in advance,” said Robert Kasca, WFP Representative and Country Director in Nepal.He added, “Nepal is extremely prone to climate-related disasters, and this approach offers a new and effective way of supporting communities not only to cope with, but also adapt to the impact of the climate crisis.”By supporting preparedness and anticipatory action, humanitarian organisations help prevent and mitigate some of the impact of extreme weather events on the food security, nutrition, and livelihoods of at-risk households. This also reduces potential loss and damage, and the cost of later humanitarian response. As world leaders prepare to meet on the climate crisis at the COP-27 UN climate change meeting in Egypt next month, WFP is calling for increased investment in climate change solutions to better protect communities from future climatic shocks like the ones that hit Nepal and the bigger disaster in Pakistan this year.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bkTQ39SWAoLast year, too, WFP provided cash assistance to 1,665 vulnerable households before flood emergencies hit their villages based on accurate weather forecasts. WFP says this was the fastest forecast-based response that it had ever implemented in its history, reaching targeted households in a record four hours, following the onset of sudden flash floods. The cash enabled the families to buy food and other necessities, evacuate family members and livestock to safer places, and protect their houses and assets.Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has upgraded its forecasting systems with real-time satellite data, doppler radar and other equipment. However, while predicting extreme weather has become more accurate, there is still a need for a wider network of precipitation measurement equipment that can prove early warning of localised flash floods.For example, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bkTQ39SWAo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3D7bkTQ39SWAo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1666758545445000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1yNKoPldUJ_oZY7yu_f2X_">a sudden debris flow </a>on a small tributary of the Tila River in Kalikot District on 9 October killed 17 people who were attending a funeral on the banks. The neighbouring districts of Jumla, Accham, Dailekh, and Mugu were also hit by deadly landslides.Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) has dispatched a technical fact-finding team to determine the impact of the floods and landslides, and to come up with solutions on how to improve early warning to save lives and reduce damage from future climate-related extreme weather events.

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Better forecasting reduces flood impact in Nepal

Drones to the rescue in Melamchi

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920e9c7e80680e06f127jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="701"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>The 2020 southwest monsoon was forecast to be 'normal' in Nepal, but it turned out to be more intense than predicted, and lasted much longer.Last year saw deadly landslides and floods across the country, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">killing at least 400 people</a>, with Sindhupalchok, Baglung, Myagdi, Jajarkot, Kalikot and Bajura districts bearing the brunt of the disasters. Entire villages were buried and debris flows swept away rocks, trees, bridges and houses.We are now bracing up for the 2021 monsoon season, and it is predicted to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">much more intense than last year</a>. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has forecast that this year's monsoon precipitation will be 'above normal' almost throughout the country.This year's monsoon comes after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">worst wildfire season ever</a>, and it could make this year’s monsoon even more destructive. Wildfires that raged for months burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.Then there is also the Covid-19 pandemic, that is now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">raging across the hinterland</a>, and has further compounded the challenges in responding to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon-induced disasters</a>. Many local first responders have fallen sick during the second wave of the coronavirus, and those who are fit enough to conduct rescue and relief will find it difficult to maintain safe distance.Given all these considerations, it would be naive to hope that everything will be all right in the next few months, but the slopes are already saturated by pre-monsoon rains and this does not bode well.Here at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) we are committed to reducing losses in lives and livelihoods by:<ul><li>Preparing joint response during the pandemic to landslides, floods and water borne diseases with federal, provincial, local governments including District Disaster Management Committees for swift rescue and relief operations.</li> <li>Closely working with the Nepal Army, the Armed Police Force, Nepal Police, community groups, non-profits, development partners and the private sector.</li> <li>Improving Early Warning System and communicating disaster risks in more effective ways.</li> <li>Prepositioning search and rescue equipment including relief items.</li></ul>While preparing for this year's monsoon, we have also begun to look beyond 2021. With the right policies and actions, we can achieve our target of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial reduction of disaster risk</a> and loss of lives and livelihoods by 2030. It may sound ambitious, but we have a vision to pull it off in sync with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920f9c7e80680e06f128jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Through this year's budget program, the government has unveiled a 10-year campaign to build Suraksit Nepal -- a disaster resilient Nepal which will fast track actions to ensure safety in not just future earthquakes, but other hazards.The 10-year campaign to build a resilient Nepal will use our valuable learning and insights from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction</a>. In the first few years after the 2015 earthquake, Nepal received unfair bad publicity in the international media for sluggish reconstruction, but the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) quickly made up for lost time to achieve its mandate.The NRA’s completion of post-earthquake recovery despite the 2015-16 border blockade and the 2020-21 lockdowns is a model for other countries. Nepal is planning an international conference next year to share this success story.To wrap up the post-earthquake recovery, the government has allocated the budget to build 14,155 more classrooms, 105 health facilities, 195 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/learning-from-nepals-past-to-rebuild-its-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cultural monuments</a> and 36 government buildings. Similarly, reconstruction and retrofitting of heritage buildings and completion of 39 integrated settlements also feature prominently in this year's budget.This year’s budget also allocates money for disaster preparedness, search, rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. This includes programs for disaster risk financing, helicopters for aerial firefighting, multi-hazard early warning system, multi-purpose robotic firefighting equipment in all provinces, advanced fire brigade, multi-seater ambulance, rescue vehicles and fire trucks at all local levels.This is the first time Disaster Risk Management has featured so prominently in Nepal's national budget. Disasters are traditionally seen as acts of god in Nepal, this is why there was little will to work on prevention.We now see a paradigm shift in this thinking. We are moving from response more towards <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness and risk reduction</a>. Rather than waiting for disasters to happen and spending financial, human and institutional resources on rescue and relief, our new emphasis in this decade is on disaster risk reduction and preparedness for effective response.As part of the 10-year campaign to build a disaster resilient Nepal, we need to plan, design and implement:<ul><li>Multi-hazard risk assessment and mapping</li> <li>Establishment of a national platform to communicate risk information</li> <li>Early warning system using all forms of media for all hazards</li> <li>Disaster risk financing with insurance of private houses and public buildings</li> <li>Integrated settlements for communities at high-risk locations</li> <li>Guidelines and system to reconstruct infrastructure damaged by disasters</li> <li>Revision of the building code to integrate key risks such as floods, fire and lightning and create incentives for implementation</li> <li>Reduction of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood risks</li> <li>Design standards to integrate disaster and climate risks for roads, water supply and irrigation</li> <li>Establishment of Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority at all seven provinces</li> <li>Establishment of Emergency Operation Centers at all seven provinces, 77 districts and key municipalities with high risks</li> <li>Building capacity of provincial and local governments to integrate risk considerations into development planning</li> <li>Restructuring of NDRRMA to include a Training and Research Directorate for disaster risk reduction</li></ul>Successful completion of these tasks will lay the groundwork for the 10-year plan. Its success will not only save lives and livelihoods, but also reduce recurrent economic damage and loss from disasters.Anil Pokhrel is the Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

A disaster resilient Nepal is possible

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Better forecasting reduces flood impact in Nepal

Drones to the rescue in Melamchi

A disaster resilient Nepal is possible