<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be16b9c7e80680e083e49jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: PRITI THAPA</figcaption></figure>Many Nepalis based in the US and elsewhere closely followed the US election results. It was key concern because of what the election outcome meant for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-visa-rule-leaves-nepali-students-in-lurch/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-visa-rule-leaves-nepali-students-in-lurch/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375567000&amp;usg=AFQjCNESwYk7XrlbmaCtZPcDNUoEb5rZvw">immigration policies</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ununited-states-of-america/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ununited-states-of-america/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375567000&amp;usg=AFQjCNErl8GT5h9cLJymZTecev7sb3DekQ">Donald Trump was bad news for immigrants</a>, including many Nepalis -- responsible for over 400 executive actions since he took office.“I did not care about the US election at all in 2016, but I followed the 2020 election very closely, refreshing my phone past midnight to check the results,” says 2020 Diversity Visa <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17620" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D17620&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375567000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2jo75hteDaaM_R131Rcsdnic2WQ">(DV) lottery</a> winner Archana KC, who received news about her successful DV-outcome in May 2019. But on 22 June Trump banned migration to the US.Every year, some 55,000 winners from over 14 million applicants are selected for permanent residency from underrepresented countries, including Nepal. The number of  applicants from Nepal exceeds 600,000 annually. In 2018, 4,097 Nepalis were awarded permanent residency in the US through this program (see figure).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be16e9c7e80680e083e4ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1616" height="950"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>On 22 April, Trump signed a proclamation suspending migrants who pose a threat to the US labour market during the economic recovery following the pandemic, which was further extended on 22 June till the end of the year. This was bad news for the 2020 DV lottery winners, as they lose their spot if they are not vetted for and receive their visas by end of September.The DV lottery program has been one of Trump’s target programs. He has said it brings the “worst of the worst to the US”. In September, the US District Court Judge ordered the Trump administration to resume processing of DVs for 2020 winners. Prior to the ban, 12,000 diversity visas had already been issued.Taking into account Covid-19 and its impact on the State Department's visa and consular processing capacity, the judge ordered a total of 9,095 slots to be reserved past the end of 30 September deadline, but it is unsure which of the 43,000 remaining winners will fall in that group.Stranded Nepali DV winners have built an online community and joke among themselves: ‘It is ironic that DV losers will never understand the pain of DV winners.’Many have given up hope, but KC is confident it will all work out with the Biden win. “We have come this far and all the effort and energy that has gone into this will not go to waste,” she says, recalling how she had to go around with her one week old daughter to get her a passport. “But just to be on the safe side, I have also applied for the 2022 lottery.”The other Nepalis impacted by the uncertainty are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/temporary-protection-nepalis-in-trumps-us,4067" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/temporary-protection-nepalis-in-trumps-us,4067&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375568000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_VFpTUVNMdFzqGJmh7_ex6Xrj-g">Temporary Protection Status (TPS) </a>beneficiaries, a humanitarian program that allows those affected by war or disasters to temporarily live and work in the US. Over 411,000 individuals from 10 countries are eligible, including 14,549 Nepalis who benefited from the program after the 2015 earthquake. They include students and those overstaying their visas.Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-extends-tps-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-extends-tps-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375568000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHGKMLISrssmF0RTSzMUwm6--ITXg">tried to end this program since 2017</a>, citing countries have recovered from the natural disasters or violent conflicts that caused people to flee. He has faced a number of lawsuits including, one filed by a group of Nepalis and Hondurans. The TPS designation for Nepal is currently expected to be valid till 4 January, 2021.A recent survey by the group Adhikaar of 324 TPS Nepalis showed that 68.7% reported thinking about this issue once a day or more, 54.3% of respondents think about being deported once a day or more, and 45.9% reported thinking about how TPS would mean not being able to see their children grow up.Biden’s immigration plan includes protection of TPS from being returned to countries that are deemed unsafe, and to offer a path to citizenship to those who have been in the country for an extended period of time and built lives in the US.Ramesh is one such Nepali protected under TPS whose future hinges on these decisions. He says: “There is still a lot of uncertainty even under Biden, but we are hopeful that it will be extended given the positive signals from his campaign.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1709c7e80680e083e4bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500">Things are especially difficult for those with young children who are US citizens, because they may have to leave children behind or stay on undocumented.Another prominent policy priority for Biden is to reinstate the Dreamers Program on his first day in office, that will allow children of undocumented immigrants to remain in the country. There are only 60 Nepalis under DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) out of the 643,560 active ‘dreamers’. Trump’s attempts to dismantle the program in 2017 was blocked by US Supreme Court.Aalok is one of the 60 Nepali DACA recipients, who has lived in the US since he was six. “I grew up thinking I am a US citizen as my parents did a very good job of hiding this from my sister and I,” Aalok told us on the phone.But once he found out, Aalok recalls the traumatic experience because of the constant uncertainty. “I am grateful for this program, but I disliked the term dreamers because it was anything but a dream, it was a nightmare, because your identity was often used as a political bargaining tool. It was particularly difficult when I had to get into college because I could not apply for any federal and state funding, but was lucky to get a merit-based scholarship.”When the networks called Biden’s win last week, Aalok was part of the car honking and dancing celebrations in New York. He says: “It was as if the whole world was breathing a collective sigh of relief.”Joe Biden also has a positive stance on skilled-visas like the H-1B, which has been contentious under Trump. Nepalis make up only 0.4% of H1B visa holders annually, which is dominated by Indians who make up three-fourths of the visa holders.The June proclamation also suspended the H-1B and other employment related visas, and  in October the Trump administration announced further restrictions including narrowing the definition of ‘specialty occupations’ to ensure applicants have the degree specific to the job they are applying for, and increasing the salary threshold.A Nepali with highly specialised programming skills in the Nepal branch of a small software development company says that he wrote the core platform and his managers considered him irreplaceable. He was offered a position  under the L1B specialised worker visa, where his work was appreciated and he moved to a wider role.“But after two years when it was time to get my visa renewed, it was rejected as my job description was deemed different than the original one,” he says. “The lawyers have filed a green card application, and hopefully things will move quicker under the Biden administration so I can go back to the US.”Another student, an OPT intern who was working for a multi-billion dollar e-commerce retailer applied for an H1-B, had his visa rejected and had to move back to Nepal.“The application was rejected over minor points regarding my salary, even though it was above the market rate, and because my area of study was not exactly computer science even though I had the programming skills,” he says.Biden’s plans regarding skilled visas include reforming the temporary visa system to establish a wage-based allocation process so H1-B allocations are linked to prevailing wages and establish enforcement mechanisms. He also plans to expand the number of high-skilled visas, currently capped at 85,000,  and elimination of the limits on employment-based visas by country.Last year, 7,409 Nepalis got naturalised in the US whereas 10,201 received permanent residency. The top five states hosting Nepalis are Texas, New York, California, Virginia and Ohio (see figures below). In addition, a significant number of Nepalis also take circuitous paths to reach the US when they do not have access to the legal routes like H1B and DV.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1739c7e80680e083e4cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1392" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1769c7e80680e083e4djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1414" height="1294"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Ramesh went <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-enter-US-through-central-america,3083" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-enter-US-through-central-america,3083&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375568000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEKCwKVFc0zpyIcYQWcduClKW5iGg">through multiple countries</a> to make it to America. Before he took on the journey, he did not know much about Donald Trump except his obsession with the wall and increased enforcement at the border that would make his journey from Mexico difficult.It did not deter him. His journey to the US took 2.5 months, which is relatively short to other migrants taking this circuitous path from Kathmandu via Dubai-Russia-Spain-Bolivia-Colombia-Panama-Honduras-Nicaragua-Guatamela-Mexico-US. The trek through the forest in Colombia was harsh when they even passed bodies of migrants who had not made it.Ramesh and his friends took along six cans of Red Bull for energy during the forest trek. “It would make us feel energized to plod for another few hours,” he recalls. Besides the dangers of the jungle, they were also robbed, had nothing to eat and survived on bananas and water.He reached Tijuana in Mexico, but soon after jumping over a wall and entering the US, he was detained. “After the torture we had gone through, we did not have much to complain about the detention centre where we were given food, hygiene kits and clothes,” Ramesh recalls.After spending two months in detention, he was released on a bond of $14,000 as he waits for his asylum case. After over five months, he was eligible to apply for his work permit and social security card. Now, he dreams of bringing his family to the US someday if he is granted asylum. Nepalis form one of the top ten nationalities receiving asylum grants. In 2019, 627 Nepalis were granted asylum, placing it in the 9th highest nationality. (See figure below)<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1799c7e80680e083e4ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1486" height="908"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“I don’t really have an opinion on Trump or Biden,” says Ramesh. “As a royalist who was vocal against politicians of the current ruling party, I often got into trouble in my village back home. I came here to earn. The good thing about US is that if you are willing to work hard, you can earn and that is all I am focused on now. And as long as I can work, it doesn’t matter who is President.”But the work authorisation that Ramesh enjoys as he waits for his asylum hearing has been targeted by Trump who issued two new rules effective August requiring asylum-seekers to wait 365 days before applying for work authorisation instead of the 150 that Ramesh got, and removing the 30 day limit for the work authorisation applications to be processed. These rules were blocked by a judge in September.Between 2010-2019, there were 4,511unauthorised Nepalis who have been apprehended.  Of them, 1,124 were deemed inadmissible, while 951 Nepalis were returned or removed. Removals involve a formal court order, whereas returns are those who voluntarily go back to Nepal.Particularly notable is the removal of 169 Nepalis in 2019, a significantly higher number than previous years. (See figure below) Biden has committed to a 100-day freeze on deportations of unauthorised foreigners in the US after he takes office.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be17b9c7e80680e083e4fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1542" height="1060"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Hari is from the same village as Ramesh, and returned last year from the US. He spent six months in a detention center, and unsuccessfully fought his case with support from a Nepali lawyer.“When they were taking me to the airport, I thought that I was being transferred to another detention center, it was a surprise when I found out I was flying home but there was no other option,” he says.While in immigration detention, Hari wrote a diary with painful details of his journey to handle his emotions, but he decided to throw it away. “The plan was to turn the diary into a book, that I wanted to title ‘My Journey to America’ to dissuade other Nepalis from repeating my mistake, but no one wanted to listen to my advice in the village,” he explains.Hari sold his house to pay back the Rs5 million loan he took for his failed journey to the US, and says he is not surprised that his journey was unsuccessful. He says: “I am not sure if having Trump as President versus Biden would have made a difference, but had I landed in another state and not Louisiana, or got a more lenient judge, I may have been released.”Surya works in a California-based law firm and specialises in asylum cases, and confirms Hari’s hunch: “To get migrants out on bail from states like Louisiana and Georgia is very difficult. California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and DC have it slightly easier. But it also depends on the judges.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be17f9c7e80680e083e50jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/judge2020/denialrates.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/judge2020/denialrates.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605672375568000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEb5n1geHBnQ2sbNkVzckR9nrWmJA">TRAC project</a> maintained by Syracuse University shows the variation within and across immigration courts in judge denial rates, with a judge in New York who has a denial rate of 3%, and a judge in Houston with a denial rate of 100%.TRAC data shows that the median bond amount for Nepalis was $15,000 in 2018/2019 and $12,000 in 2020. Research shows that detained immigrants from Nepal have higher odds of being granted bond, but also pay more compared to other nationalities. In 2018, 79% of the 593 detained Nepalis were released on bonds, higher than the national average of 48%.Joe Biden has big plans from legalising 11 million undocumented workers in the US to expanding the skilled visa program, from reinstating DACA to protecting TPS beneficiaries. Many of these will impact Nepalis.But a lot hinges on the two Georgia senate runoffs in January, and the health and economic crises that have taken precedence over other topics. Many Nepalis, in America and in Nepal, however, remain hopeful of a kinder America under Biden.Some names have been changed.

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Nepalis hopeful about Biden presidency

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933d09c7e80680e03dfbejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="996" height="1500"/><figcaption>Raghu Thakur is a barber from Bihar who has been cutting the hair of Nepalis for the last 20 years. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>In the town of Kasara outside Chitwan National Park, the paddy was being harvested last week. The contract labourers had come across the Nepal-India border at Thori, and were busy manually slicing rice stalks with their sickles. The Nepali farmers who had hired them could afford to do so because their three sons were all <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110">working in Japan</a> and sending money home.Across the country, including Kathmandu and on trek routes, there are skilled and semi-skilled workers from northern India and Bangladesh doing the same work that Nepalis have gone abroad to do. In some cases, in districts along the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake</a> zone, Indian workers earn as much as Nepali carpenters and masons earn in Qatar.In jewelry shops that line Kathmandu’s New Road, very little of the work is done by the local Newar owners, most of it has been passed on to hired Indians. Every time Nepalis get a haircut, there is a fair chance they are sending money to India as out-flowing remittance.Last week during Tihar, like all recent Tihars, the demand for marigold boomed, but there is no one to pluck them and make garlands to sell in the cities. So, we imported the garlands from India instead. In the past ten years Nepal received nearly $40 billion in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-economy-supported-by-remittance-money,2874">remittances from its workers abroad</a>. But Nepal is also the sixth largest source of remittance for India, from its workers in Nepal.With infrastructure reaching saturation, most Gulf countries will now require managers, and service sector workers, and fewer menial workers. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Korean-kafala-migrants-in-Korea,4025">Korean</a> language institutions are in high demand because many Nepali workers believe that this is a market that will them to move up the social ladder, and hard work really pays. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/">USA and Australia still draw the young who are strong academically</a> and have families willing to pay for their education.Qatar is asking the Nepal Police to help secure its venues during the upcoming World Cup in 2022. Malaysia wants Nepali workers, and is willing to cover all fees  associated with them under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-malaysia-labour-pact/">a new G2G deal</a>. The USA diversity visa lottery is attracting hundreds of thousands of Nepali applicants.Soon, there may be more Nepalis working outside Nepal than in Nepal. Terrace farms are lying fallow, or are being farmed by contract labourers from India. There is really no other way but for Nepali farms to mechanise production and consolidate fragmented family plots.There used to be a time when Nepalis performed funeral rites for relatives if they did not come home for the paddy planting season. We may need to revive this tradition to get young Nepalis to come home during Dasain and stay home till the harvest is stored for the winter.One of the reasons why many Nepalis do not face extreme poverty in difficult economic times is because they have the option to go back to subsistence farming. This has been the insurance policy during the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">Indian Blockade</a>, and the demonetisation of the INR which hit poor Nepali workers hardest by destroying their savings.Nepal’s main imports include machinery, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">fossil fuel</a> and raw materials for processed goods for export. No one keeps count of how much money goes out in haircuts, farm contract labourers, and construction workers from India in hydropower, and rebuilding of earthquake-damaged houses. Many CEOs and senior managers in Kathmandu are foreigners, probably because there are no Nepalis left who can do the job.Nepalis are said to work hard, but only when they are outside Nepal. At home, manual work is regarded as shameful. The jagir culture thrives because salaried government jobs demand little, but assure a pension for life. You see young men playing cards or carom but not helping in the farm. Success in Nepal means not having to work.But things are changing. Nepali youth today run many businesses that require manual labor and good academic qualifications. From vegetable farming to animation studios, from raising rainbow trout to meat processing, Nepalis are launching businesses closer to home.Nepal is now exporting more IT products than money earned from tourism. Families and communities need to respect those who refuse to go abroad and seek work within Nepal. We are proud people, sometimes too proud to work and get our hands dirty. We need more of us to do manual work and tell the world proudly of what we do.Upward mobility in Nepal should not mean not having to do any work.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc

Anil Chitrakar

Success in Nepal means not having to work

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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