This time of year last year, the phone at the headquarters of Salute Gorkha Training Centre in Pokhara was ringing off the hook. Callers wanted to know if recruitment of Nepali soldiers into the Indian Army had started.&nbsp; This year, the phone has not rung at all. The office is quiet. Many young men from the mountains who had spent more than six months in training in Pokhara to be recruited as an Indian Gorkha soldier have given up. They are now trying their luck to find jobs in the Gulf. Even so, whenever retired Butwal-based Indian Army soldier Laxman Shrestha gets calls from his village in southeastern Gulmi, the most frequently asked question is: “Dai, has the recruitment process begun?" Shrestha retired four years ago after having served for more than 17 years in the Indian Army’s Gorkha Rifles, and currently operates a business in Butwal.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/in-the-line-of-fire">In the Line of Fire</a>, Editorial He also supports young people from his home village in the mountains who want to follow his footsteps. But with the uncertainty about India’s military reform plan called Agnipath, he is not able to give them a clear answer. The Indian Army suspended Gorkha recruitment for two years from 2020 to 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. But even afterwards, there are new conditions for applicants. Introduced last July, Agnipath only allows recruits aged 17.5 to 23 years old to be hired as soldiers for four-year periods, after which they will be discharged with a lump sum of Rs1.8 million, but will not be eligible for a lifetime pension. Only 25% of trained soldiers will be offered a 15-year extension after the initial four years. Recruitment did start in Butwal and Dharan, but the selection process was halted soon after by the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government, saying that Nepal needed further study into the scheme. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal">India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal</a>, Anita Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_09f7f816a810251d13ae1d820dcedaac6ec1f8ace21fc7ea66c1b9fb7647b9f4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2023081205080_09f7f816a810251d13ae1d820dcedaac6ec1f8ace21fc7ea66c1b9fb7647b9f4" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="434" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha training NT"> <figcaption>Photos: SALUTE GORKHA TRAINING CENTER</figcaption> </figure>  The decision was a blow to young Nepalis who wanted to be selected to the Indian Army. Some 306 applicants from the mountains of central Nepal had already enrolled at Salute Gorkha Training Institute in Butwal. Most are now trying to get an overseas job, and some want to try for the British Army. There are currently 4,100 Nepali Gurkha soldiers in the British Army, and 205 were &nbsp;selected this year from about 25,000 applicants, despite a long-running dispute over pensions. The British Army also recruits Nepalis on behalf of the Singapore, Oman and Brunei security forces. “The selection for the Indian army is easier than the British Army and the Singapore police. That is why many trainees who enrol in our institute tend to try for the Indian military,” explains Lokesh Thapa, director of Salute Gorkha Training Institute who has been training aspiring recruits for 13 years. “But with the future uncertain, we cannot enrol a new batch.” Trainees pay fees up to Rs80,000 each at the institute's branches in Butwal, Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Dang, Chitwan, and Dharan, and it is among 30 other similar centres.&nbsp; “The fees they have paid has gone to waste,” says retired Indian Army Junior Commissioned Officer Kul Bahadur KC. “They have nowhere to go and no one who can answer their questions.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tales-of-courage-and-suffering-cx95f89e">Tales of courage and suffering</a>, Nepali Times In February, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra paid an official visit to Nepal to discuss Agnipath among other things, but no outcome was made public. Former Indian Army Captain Chok Bahadur Gurung has made up his mind about what it means: “Agnipath has shown that India is ignoring the Nepali government.”&nbsp; Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal said he raised the Agnipath issue with Narendra Modi when the two met in New Delhi in May, but there was no joint mention of it. Even retired Indian Army major general Ashok Mehta who has served in the Gorkha Brigades is outraged. He told Nepali Times: “The existing recruitment system was overturned without notice or consultation with a strategic Himalayan neighbour with whom India claims special relations. India-Nepal relations are like between daju and bhai, but this was not very big brotherly.” A Tripartite Agreement in 1947 allowed the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the British and Indian Armies, but Nepali fighters went over to the British side even before the end of the 1814-16 war with the East India Company following which Nepal signed the Sugauli Treaty. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/gorkhas-on-the-frontline-between-india-and-china/">Gorkhas on the frontline between India and China</a>, Pratistha Rijal  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_e837cb3f4e428434db0bb72436e64ffd818300f24f3a44fea060e6b96429ba80.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2023081205080_e837cb3f4e428434db0bb72436e64ffd818300f24f3a44fea060e6b96429ba80" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha Training NT"> </figure>  By the end of World War II, there were 10 Gurkha regiments in the British Army, and six of them were assigned to India and four to Britain after Indian independence. India has since added another Gorkha Regiment. (India refers to its Nepali soldiers as 'Gorkhas', while the British prefer ‘Gurkhas’.) Former soldier Mukta Prasad Shrestha from Gulmi served 21 years as an Indian Gorkha soldier and still sees young people in his village training to do what he did as a young man. He agrees that the Agnipath scheme puts the livelihoods of Nepali soldiers at risk. &nbsp; “Well-to-do people do not join the military, those who have the responsibility to take care of families do,” says Shrestha. “Why else would anyone want to go off and fight for somebody else's land?” Sushant Singh, who served in the Indian Army for 20 years and is now the consulting editor of Caravan magazine in New Delhi, said in a recent podcast that a scheme like Agnipath erases the self-identity of retired soldiers. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-forgotten-gurkha-rebellion-e8z403ab">A forgotten Gurkha rebellion</a>, Ram Kandangwa  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205080_87bf1d4bb3d8a5256ef93bb4658a150fc6b82ae9d72a76e31180bc382da98249.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2023081205080_87bf1d4bb3d8a5256ef93bb4658a150fc6b82ae9d72a76e31180bc382da98249" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="645" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha Training NT"> </figure>  “Until now, those who joined the army served for 17 years, and left with experience and honour afforded by the training and the pension received,” Singh recently said on a podcast. “That honour makes all the difference between having been a soldier or a hired killer.” Nepal’s former ambassador to India Deep Kumar Upadhyay says India employed “crude diplomacy” by failing to discuss Agnipath with Nepal before its implementation as it involves soldiers from Nepal.&nbsp; “India should not have taken a unilateral decision on a recruitment process that does not justify terms set in the Tripartite Agreement,” says Upadhyay. “India must reach out to Nepal’s political leadership as well as ex-servicemen networks.” Maj Gen Ashok Mehta echoes this sentiment: “It is clear that India’s handling was presumptuous, and the government has opted to make Nepal-Domiciled Gorkha (NDG) recruitment not as a foreign policy imperative but a domestic employment issue. Now, India and Nepal must begin talks on Agnipath urgently to save the Indian Gorkha Brigade and the vital Gorkha connection with Nepal.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-far-so-good/collateral-benefits">Collateral benefits</a>, Lisa Choegyal The seven-point Tripartite Agreement ensures the rights of Nepali soldiers, including their salaries, pensions, financial compensation, as well as facilities for families. The fourth point of the agreement in particular stipulates that Gorkha soldiers should be allowed to serve for sufficient time to qualify for pension, a point former soldiers have said Aginapath goes against. Retired Indian Army Captain Raj Bahadur Thapa says that the 1947 agreement is outdated and must be replaced by a new agreement with conditions that are in the best interests of Nepal’s soldiers in foreign armies. “Otherwise, why send your young men to kill and die for a foreign land?” questions Thapa. A former serviceman who was with the Indian Army for over 20 years says Nepalis will not be included in the 25% who will be permanently retained by the military. “Nepali soldiers are always on a razor edge in the Indian military, they remember even our smallest mistakes,” he says. “We will be the first ones to be sent back.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023081205084_07f6c6ad6115234ae2873eec9e2ddf287a1209788d311e3529597de939e2c395.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2023081205084_07f6c6ad6115234ae2873eec9e2ddf287a1209788d311e3529597de939e2c395" data-rendition-name="original" width="956" height="538" loading="lazy" alt="Gorkha training NT"> </figure>  Nepali soldiers have other concerns about what young Nepali men with military training can do when they return to Nepal in four years when the money they saved runs out eventually. Recruits within India seem to have similar qualms, and there have been protests there against the scheme after it was announced. Recruits from the first batch of ‘Agniveer’ had reportedly dropped out of training, and the Indian Army is said to be considering raising the permanent retention quota from 25% to 50%, and the length of engagement from 4 years to 7 years.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-military-migrant-economy">A military-migrant economy</a>, Amanda Chisholm The Modi government introduced Agnipath to reduce military expenditure and redirect the budget to modernisation of the armed forces. Critics in India itself have said that the scheme was introduced without any previous risk assessment or study into its impact on the Indian military structure. Bhakta Bahadur Bucha, who spent 22 years in the Indian Army, says Agnipath will push India’s Gorkha regiments into crisis since they are the military’s largest and most prestigious units. The seven Gorkha Rifles regiments have 46 battalions, 60% of whom are Nepali. Furthermore, there are 125,000 Indian Gorkha retirees who receive a pension. Says Bucha, “India must not forget that its Gorkha units are on the frontlines in Kashmir, Pakistan, Ladakh, Arunachal and Bangladesh. And a four-year limit to military service will affect their morale and commitment. Soldiers will not be willing to fight wars if the job is temporary.” Ethics and nationalism aside, recruitment into the Indian Army is also in Nepal’s economic interest. Nearly 18% of the country’s population is working and living abroad because of the lack of meaningful jobs back home, and the interest of young people to join foreign militaries stem from this desperation.&nbsp; Dhan Bahadur Thapa of the United Federation of Ex-Servicemen and Police Welfare who was once a Colonel in the Indian Army explains: “If recruitment into the Indian Army is stopped, it will have a direct impact on Nepal’s economy, where jobs are already scarce. If recruitment is not resumed, ex-servicemen are prepared to take to the streets.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/diary-of-a-nepali-soldier-in-france">Diary of a Nepali soldier in France</a>, Shree Bhakta Khanal

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Recruitment of Nepalis into Indian Army paused

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234b89c7e80680e0c494bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2200" height="1410"/><figcaption>The 39 Gorkha Regiment marching contingent passes through the Rajpath during the 62nd Republic Day Parade-2011, in New Delhi on January 26, 2011. Photo: PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU INDIA</figcaption></figure>A Tripartite Agreement in 1947 allowed the continued recruitment of Nepalis into the British and Indian Armies, but New Delhi’s plan to reform its military has implications for Nepal’s economy and politics.However incongruous it may be in this day and age for nationals of a sovereign nation to be serving in the military of another country, enlistment overseas provides  income for tens of thousands of Nepali families as well as being an important source of foreign exchange for the country.Now, the Indian government is set to implement the ‘Agnipath Yojana’ to reduce its defence expenditure. The scheme will allow soldiers below the rank of commissioned officers across three branches of India’s armed forces to be hired only for four-year periods.There are an estimated 32,000 Nepalis in the Gorkha Regiments of the Indian Army, but many new recruits in recent years are Indians of Nepali origin. Pensions of retired soldiers is an important source of Indian currency for Nepal’s economy, which relies overwhelmingly on imports from India.Agnipath will mean that only a quarter of the 46,000 soldiers between 17-23 years hired in 2022 can stay on in the military after four years. Those being let go will get golden handshakes of INR1.7 million and will not be eligible for lifetime pension.As the clock winds down to its launch in September, there have been angry protests against Agnipath in India. But the Nepal government has been conspicuously silent despite the potential impact on recruitment, the economy, as well as implications for the 1947 Tripartite Agreement on the rights of Nepali soldiers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/he-shot-down-a-fighter-then-shot-to-fame/">He shot down a fighter, then shot to fame</a>, Gopal Dahal<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234bc9c7e80680e0c494cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="815" height="441">Says senior advocate Yuvraj Sangraula: “The Agnipath scheme violates the Tripartite Agreement signed at India’s independence which stipulates that pensions and other financial benefits be given to Gorkha soldiers as per the Indian Army Pay Code.”Recruitment of Nepalis into the British Army started even before the end of the 1814-16 war with the East India Company. Nepali soldiers have served in 10 Gurkha regiments of the British Army ever since, serving in both world wars, in the Malaya insurgency, and in Afghanistan. At least 55,000 Nepalis in the British Army have been killed in action, and many thousands have died fighting for India since 1947.Following Indian independence in 1947, six of the 10 regiments were assigned to India and four to Britain. India has since added another Gorkha Regiment, and there are currently 32,000 Nepali soldiers in 40 battalions. (India refers to its Nepali soldiers as 'Gorkhas', while the British prefer 'Gurkha'.)The Tripartite Agreement between Britain, India and Nepal spells out the rights of Nepali soldiers: their salaries, pensions, financial compensation, as well as facilities for families.The treaty guarantees equal basic pay for Gorkhas as other Indian soldiers, as well as pensions for servicemen who have served a minimum of 15 years.On 23 July, UML leader Bhim Rawal raised the Agnipath scheme in Parliament, asking for clarification from the government. He demanded that if Agnipath included Nepali soldiers, then Gorkha recruitment into the Indian Army be terminated.India earlier had informed the Nepal government that it would go ahead with recruiting Nepali youths in Butwal and Dharan. But after Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka held talks with Indian ambassador Naveen Srivastava on 24 August, the recruitment has been postponed in Butwal for now, and officials say that further discussions are underway.Experts, including former Nepali military brass, had called at the Prime Minister’s Office as well as the Foreign Ministry last week to urge talks with New Delhi about the impact of Agnipath on Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty/"> Looking back at the 1923 Nepal-Britain Treaty</a>, Santa Gaha Magar<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234be9c7e80680e0c494djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="976" height="549"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c09c7e80680e0c494ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="742" height="413">Lt Gen (Retd) Bala Nanda Sharma says both sides should sort it out: “Nepal should decide and state its position on the scheme in no uncertain terms after discussing its intricacies with India.”Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Ray confirmed that the scheme applies to recruitment of Nepalis, and also urged the two governments hold talks.“There is much confusion in Nepal about the terms and conditions of the Agnipath scheme. This reform will affect Nepal, especially its economy,” Ray admitted.International relations experts are surprised that as a signatory to the Tripartite Agreement, and as the country whose citizens will be directly impacted, the Nepal government was not involved in decision-making. Instead, New Delhi just asked for Nepal’s ‘views’ as recruitment under the new scheme was due to start.“As a member of the Tripartite Agreement, Nepal should have been asked for input prior to any decision by the Indian government,” says historian Pratyoush Onta. “It is clear that Nepal was given little importance in the new recruitment scheme.”Onta notes that India and Britain only tout the agreement when they have problems. “This has been happening for 75 years,” continues Onta. “Just like Nepal was not consulted when the British decided to scale back Gurkha recruitment, India now wants to stop giving pensions to Gorkha servicemen.”Writer and journalist Kanak Mani Dixit agrees that India going ahead with the military reform without discussing it with Nepal is a violation of the Tripartite Agreement.“When Nepal signed the agreement in 1947, Nepali servicemen were guaranteed a tenure, and all the benefits that came with it up to and beyond retirement, even if pension was not explicitly stated in the agreement.” Dixit says. “Now, the term has been reduced to four years.”However, ambassador Ray argues that Agnipath has not violated the Tripartite Agreement. “I have thoroughly read the 1947 agreeement,” he says, “There is no provision for pension in it.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234c29c7e80680e0c494fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="516" height="350">Former Maj Gen Gopal Gurung of the Indian Army Gorkha Regiment concedes that there is no mention of pension in the 1947 agreement, and the Indian Army Pay Code that Nepal’s argument hinges on has been subject to multiple revisions over the years and does not guarantee pension for Indian soldiers after retirement.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/gorkhas-on-the-frontline-between-india-and-china/">Gorkhas on the frontline between India and China</a>, Pratistha Rijal“The reform should only be considered a violation had Indian and Nepali soldiers not been treated equally,” argues Gurung. “There has been a severe gap in understanding because of the lack of dialogue between the two countries.”There are 125,000 Nepali retirees from the British, Indian and Singapore security forces who received Rs61.9 billion in pensions in the last fiscal year. After Agnipath comes into force, that amount could decrease by a quarter. The remittance Nepalis in the Indian military send home will also go down now due to the four-year military term limit.Former Lt Gen Ashok Mehta of the Indian Army predicts that Agnipath will henceforth discourage Nepali youth from enlisting.“They will not want to risk their lives just to get a lump sum of money in four years when they could be earning that amount by working in Japan or the Gulf,” Mehta says.The Agnipath scheme has once more opened the debate about the absurdity of recruitment of Nepalis into foreign armies. Nepali soldiers in the Indian Gorkha Regiments have fought and died in wars against Pakistan, China and in Sri Lanka – all neighbouring countries with which Nepal has friendly relations.When the Maoists launched their insurgency in 1996, they presented 40 demands to Sher Bahadur Deuba who was also prime minister then. One of those demands was a stop to recruitment by Britain and India of Nepali nationals into their army.Twenty-six years later, Deuba is prime minister for the fifth time in a coalition with the Maoist party. Demand for jobs in the Indian and British armies and the narrative of valour in battle appear to be too powerful for Nepalis and the Nepal government to stop  enlistment into foreign armies.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani/">From Nalapani to Kalapani</a> (Parts 1-5), Alisha Sijapati

India’s trial by fire for soldiers from Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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