Ram Kumari Bhattarai, 45, made the journey to Kathmandu from Surkhet on foot, walking for almost 27 days straight. In fliflops, the soles of her feet are cracked and bruised. Bhattarai had taken a loan of Rs1.8 million, using her gold jewellery as collateral but did not keep a written receipt. Coupled with a steep interest rate of 35%, she has to now make seemingly never-ending payments to the lender. If she is not able to, the usurer harasses her through death threats, land seizures.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240308090356_4f3804d9b30a58b35b1898da3eaa03656b6b7cb07aa1cf29f7682eeef2c28d40.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240308090356_4f3804d9b30a58b35b1898da3eaa03656b6b7cb07aa1cf29f7682eeef2c28d40" data-rendition-name="original" width="1499" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Loan Shark Victims "> </figure>  &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240308090356_ffac6b5a55622eb873e129c2d9ebb6eeb94fc50c2b51c30f816536735d31d387.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240308090356_ffac6b5a55622eb873e129c2d9ebb6eeb94fc50c2b51c30f816536735d31d387" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Loan Shark Victims "> </figure>  She is adamant about staying in Kathmandu until the government intervenes to help her and others like her. In recent months, loan shark victims like Bhattarai from across the country have walked to the capital by the thousands to protest, demanding the passing of laws that will address the problems they have faced in dealing with extortionist lenders with political protection in their districts.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240308090356_53b34388de4a1a28b56f2753cb0cf7e6e0513b8b3370209f7a41a85bdb062774.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240308090356_53b34388de4a1a28b56f2753cb0cf7e6e0513b8b3370209f7a41a85bdb062774" data-rendition-name="original" width="1281" height="1601" loading="lazy" alt="Loan Shark Victims "> </figure>  Victims claim that predatory money lenders have been duping them out of millions of rupees by calculating compound interests fraudulently. When the lendees cannot pay, they are subjected to mental torture and threats. With their husbands away for work, it is the women who have taken it upon themselves to find a solution to the problem, working day and night to clear their loans.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240308090356_218559decc4140e0a26bc6aad440710b2c8fbc096ff39020036c0eb09bdad287.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240308090356_218559decc4140e0a26bc6aad440710b2c8fbc096ff39020036c0eb09bdad287" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Loan Shark Victims "> </figure>  &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240308090356_34134aa2f234b764f466f535d49ae33e062c79d1f07843a0b6ff36393c92f7ad.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240308090356_34134aa2f234b764f466f535d49ae33e062c79d1f07843a0b6ff36393c92f7ad" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Loan Shark Victims "> </figure>  The women, mostly from the Tarai, have literally been behind the veil, but now have undertaken journeys of uncertainty and hardship to fight for survival because they have nothing left to lose.

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On Women's Day, nothing left to lose

Many of the victims of loan sharks who have been demonstrating in Kathmandu for the past months took high-interest loans that multiplied their debt. But among them are also families who are being forced by fraudsters with forged documents to repay money never borrowed. Here are some of them: Rajaram Sahani&nbsp; Rajaram Sahani lives by the highway in Rauthat district. Property prices have soared because of the proposed Nijgad airport, and land grabbers are targeting innocent farmers. One hot afternoon six years ago, he was handed a legal notice from the District Court that he had not paid back interest and capital on a loan for Rs637,000 from his neighbour, Trailokya Chandra Sahani. “He had lodged a complaint in the court saying I had not paid back a loan I never took, and he was demanding my land as compensation,” Rajaram says. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">Institutionalised inequality</a>, Editorial  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230721050732_2dd1169402bcf3353cf99d618e7c7c71e7aa711f1423f5bba39e33932d897e58.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230721050732_2dd1169402bcf3353cf99d618e7c7c71e7aa711f1423f5bba39e33932d897e58" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Rajaram and family"> <figcaption> </figcaption> </figure>  He then took the rubber print and his live fingerprint to a forensic lab in Lalitpur where technician Mukul Pradhan confirmed that although the two prints looked alike, one of them was not a real thumb. With this proof, Rajaram returned to the District Police in Rautahat and showed it to Superintendent Siddhi B Shah. But because the process of investigation would take more than the 24 days that the fake print maker Trailokya Sahani could be legally detained, he was not arrested. &nbsp; Rajaram then submitted a complaint to the court which sent the prints back to the forensic lab to again determine if they were rubber prints. A 3-member investigation team that included the same Mukul Pradhan, police DSP Udaya Jung Rana and Biswa Raj Poudel determined that the lab did not have the necessary equipment to confirm the authenticity of the rubber print -- even though two of its members had earlier said it was fake. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Till debt do us part</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230721050736_2035fdcd81be4e0236fc0977548645722d35ba5d898b0fbc96dedd493f3a2a9e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230721050736_2035fdcd81be4e0236fc0977548645722d35ba5d898b0fbc96dedd493f3a2a9e" data-rendition-name="original" width="780" height="1040" loading="lazy" alt="Rajaram loan"> <figcaption>Loan document with fake fingerprints of Rajaram Sahani.</figcaption> </figure>  The District Court judge Keshav Kumar Pandey ruled that Rajaram was guilty, and ordered he pay back the interest and capital on a loan he never took that now had grown to Rs4.83 million.&nbsp; Rajaram’s appeal is sub judice at the Birganj High Court, and he has nothing left to lose and is at the sit-in in the capital against loan sharks.&nbsp; Ram Ishwor Sahani The life of Sarlahi fishmonger Ram Ishwor Sahani and his family was &nbsp;irrevocably changed when Naresh Kumar Sahani of Gaur filed a case against his 60-year-old mother Malbhogia Kumari for failing to pay off a loan of Rs2 million.&nbsp; The plaintiff requested the court to seize Malbhogia’s property if she failed to pay the 10% interest on her loan within the next 45 days. Not only had Malbhogia never borrowed any money from Naresh, neither she nor her family had ever met or heard of the loan shark. Her son suspected that her mother’s fingerprints might have been misused. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21822&amp;preview=true" target="_blank">Some are more equal than others</a>, Anil Chitrakar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230721050740_c5f4b1cadeb323565450a0359db648daa07d861dc5ba5edc6de7248df904f7a3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230721050740_c5f4b1cadeb323565450a0359db648daa07d861dc5ba5edc6de7248df904f7a3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="750" loading="lazy" alt="Rajaram and Ram ishwor"> <figcaption>Ram Ishwor Sahani (left) and Rajaram Sahani.</figcaption> </figure>  The court ordered a lab analysis of the fingerprint on the loan document against Malbhogia’s own thumb prints, and they did not match. But as soon as the results came out, Naresh successfully filed a petition to withdraw the case without facing any consequences. Ram Ishwor’s mother is elated, but her son has not found any comfort. The court case had dragged on for two years, and he had had to place his land on collateral during that time. &nbsp; “I feared that we would be made homeless,” he explains. He is now planning to file a forgery case against Naresh Kumar Sahani, and is in Kathmandu demanding justice. Baiju Saha Kanu Baiju Saha Kanu of Rautahat was vindicated in a similar case involving fake fingerprints, after which he filed a forgery case against his neighbour Ram Binaya Shah, who had taken Baiju to court.&nbsp; But Ram Binaya was let off with a Rs30,000 fine, a mere slap on the wrist, and his brother took revenge by filing another fraudulent case against Baiju’s son, dragging the family to court once again.&nbsp; “Had he been sent to prison the first time around, neither he nor his family would have had the courage to commit a similar crime,” says Baiju Shah. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-tax-system-widens-rich-poor-gap">Nepal’s tax system widens rich-poor gap</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230721050740_882b93bb910ad96445934e317ab3bc57f07948bc25ea7c150a2b54b74c656a2a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20230721050740_882b93bb910ad96445934e317ab3bc57f07948bc25ea7c150a2b54b74c656a2a" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="1170" loading="lazy" alt="Baiju"> <figcaption>Loan document with fake fingerprints of Baiju Saha Kanu.</figcaption> </figure>  Dilli Kumari Karki Dilli Kumari Karki from Milan Chok in Rautahat lost her 11-year-old daughter Akrita Basnet who committed suicide last year. She believes it was because of the mental torture the family had to endure from loan sharks who were blackmailing them.&nbsp; Seven years ago, Karki borrowed Rs60,000 from Rural Development Bank to open a clothing store. To expand the shop, they also borrowed Rs100,000 from a neighbour, Namrata Lama, a local tailor.&nbsp; Three months later, Karki’s husband Sukram Basnet decided to become a cosmetic dealer and borrowed an additional Rs350,000 from Lama which the couple managed to return eventually after four months. Later, Lama asked Karki for a blank cheque in her name “just for recordkeeping”.&nbsp; Innocently, Karki gave her the signed cheque, and Lama told to her make another one because she “signed it incorrectly” the first time. Soon, Lama started demanding Rs1.5 million which she added herself on the blank cheque. Karki refused saying she had already repaid her loans, but Lama threatened to bounce the cheque.&nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy/"> Nepal’s political economy</a>, Editorial  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230721050744_d01cb7e3378fde3fe41a2f8a26ab8c803810063b40eb6c871e1090722d999ac3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20230721050744_d01cb7e3378fde3fe41a2f8a26ab8c803810063b40eb6c871e1090722d999ac3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="920" loading="lazy" alt="Dilli NT"> </figure>  Fearing prosecution, Karki started borrowing money from other lenders to pay Lama. But after paying Rs1.5 million, Lama said that was just the “interest” and that Karki still owed the “principle” which amounted to Rs450,000. When Karki refused, she brought the other blank cheque to threaten her. So she kept on paying “interest” which has now added up to Rs4.5 million. When Karki tried to sell the family property to pay for the cancer treatment of her mother-in-law they found that Lama had forged land ownership documents, forcing them to reach a settlement by paying off another Rs250,000.&nbsp; Karki then tried to sell her own land to get out of the mess. But the middle men tried to threaten and blackmail the family in front of the children. After one such altercation, Karki left for Kathmandu and heard three days later that her daughter had hung herself in her room. Lama used to call Karki on multiple numbers but when this reporter tried them, she was never available. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/first-the-good-news-sgm1d4u4">First, the good news</a>, Ramesh Kumar Post-script: Section 249 ‘A’ of Nepal’s Civil Code was amended through an ordinance in May to make unfair transactions punishable by seven years imprisonment and a fine of up to Rs70,000. A replacement bill was passed by parliament in June. But loan shark lobbies close to the JSP have demanded that the bill be repealed, staging counter-protests at Maitighar. In Rautahat alone, there have been 1,811 loan cases in the last fiscal year, 90% of which involve forgery and misuse of fingerprints. In May, the government formed an inquiry commission to address victims of loan sharks under former Special Court Chair Gauri Bahadur Karki, and 24,000 complaints were submitted, most of them from Madhes Province. Indeed, loan sharks have formed a syndicate in Madhes Province specialising in obtaining fingerprints from official documents and making rubber impressions, forging loan documents, bribing court and forensic officials and obtaining customised lab reports from the National Forensic Science Laboratory in Lalitpur. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/crime-and-or-punishment-in-nepal">Crime and/or Punishment in Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale Reporting by: Centre for Investigative Journalism-Nepal, Man Bahadur Basnet, Sagar Chand, and Archana Darji

Matter of life and debt

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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The magic 138