<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217899c7e80680e0ba9f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1210" height="806"/><figcaption>A political party mobiliser in Kathmandu's Koteswor intersection collecting names of voters in Triyuja Municipality in Udaypur. All photos: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>“What is your name?”“Binod Murmu.”“Do you know who the candidates are in our municipality?”“No.”“Then why are you going home? We have done so much to get you home, but you do not even know the candidate?”Murmu has no reply for the political party cadre.“Bhagwan Raut,” says the man sitting next to him. “I will tell him about our candidate.”“Do you have a voter ID?” the party worker asks the man.  “No, but my name is on the voters' list.”“Good, otherwise it will be difficult for us. After all, we are going through so much trouble to get you home.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/local-poll-national-impact/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Local poll, national impact</a>, EditorialThis was an overheard conversation earlier this week between a political party mobiliser and a passenger getting ready to board a bus in Kathmandu’s Koteswor intersection.The bus had been chartered by Bhagwat Raut, the UML candidate for mayor of Trijuga Municipality in Udaypur district, a 8 hour drive away. One of the passengers was Chandra Roka, and he was among people on the voters’ list that were being provided free transport by the party.The other parties in Trijuga are also rounding up voters in Kathmandu and busing them to vote in their home districts.Many of the 17,733,726 registered voters for the 13 May local elections are not in the voters’ list of Kathmandu where they now live and work. An estimated 300,000 people have travelled to their home districts this week to vote in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-goes-to-the-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Friday’s elections</a>.Most have got a free ride home from political parties, some are even getting a stipend, in return for votes. Even before the journey begins, the party cadre is already educating the passengers on the complicated ballot paper, the election symbols of their candidates, and how to vote.But not everyone is going to vote for the party’s candidates in return for the ride. Purna Maya Biswokarma, 88, is waiting for another free bus ride to her village in Sindhupalchok provided by the Maoists party. She has no plans to vote for anyone.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372178c9c7e80680e0ba9f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1132" height="755"><figcaption>Purna Maya Biswokarma has no sympathy for the parties and has no plans to vote for anyone despite a free bus ticket sponsored by the candidates in her village.</figcaption></figure>Biswokarma lost five of her children because of the lack of health care in her village, and she has no sympathy for the parties.“The five years of the local government term ended, but they could not guarantee even free medicines in the health post,” she tells us. “What are these candidates going to do for the poor like us? Nothing.”Biswokarma’s daughter-in-law Manju plans to return to Kathmandu the very next day after casting her vote, but is not sure if the party is paying for the roundtrip. “If they bring us back then it will be easy for us, but it is unlikely they will,” she says.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/turning-a-new-leaf-in-2079/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Turning a new leaf in 2079</a>, Santa Gaha MagarApsara BK and her husband Ram Bahadur BK are daily wage earners from Surkhet district working at a brick kiln in Lalitpur. The family is getting a free 18-hour bus ride from the party, but the family has no intention of coming back to Kathmandu.“Kathmandu is expensive and it is impossible to support our five children here, so we are using the election as an excuse to return to our village,” says Ram Bahadur. He now plans to go to India to find work.The BK couple has a house near Surkhet. It takes them half an hour to collect water from the nearest tap, and an hour to reach school. Not much has changed in their village since the last local election in 2017.“In the last election, the candidates promised us jobs and a better life, but five years later it is still the same,” says Apsara.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372178f9c7e80680e0ba9f3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1236" height="824"><figcaption>The BK family waiting to board their bus to Surket in Balaju. The family doesn't plan to come back to Kathmandu after the election.</figcaption></figure>Ram Bahadur gets an urgent phone call from the party cadre in his village to board the bus. He says, “They remember us only when they need votes. They promised us drinking water, irrigation and a forest fence, but they forgot it all once they were elected,” he says.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/we-are-treated-like-atms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali voters</a> are disillusioned by successive governments who have failed to address their grievances time and again. Many say they will be voting for the candidates who will do a good job regardless of the free bus ticket.Tek Bahadur Khatri is 88 but age is just a number for him, as he prepares to board a bus for Okhaldhunga. Worried he might not make it till the next election, he is determined to cast his vote this time and make it count.“Voting is carrying out the duty of a good citizen,” says Khatri. “They may or may not work for the people in the future but we should vote for those we think are good candidates.”Politicians and their cadres can try all they want, buy bus tickets, distribute food and alcohol, or dole out lofty promises, but people hold all the power as they head to the polling booths across the country this Friday, and they will <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reward-performance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reward performance</a> above all.Says Manju Biswokarma: “We are going to our village because we need to. Regardless of which candidate paid for the bus, we will cast our votes for those who will do a good job.”Translated by Aria Parasai from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129736?fbclid=IwAR2LkYUuB7N7yI4cIQ_FqZPBMaIefrjJkLR7z4uCoskIYRrlg_czrfH1N3E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali original</a> in <a href="http://himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://himalkhabar.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1652490131766000&amp;usg=AOvVaw140MamqZvb84w4-Mzs7LW-">himalkhabar.com</a>

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On the road to vote

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372176f9c7e80680e0ba9e8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Nepalis across the country <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-goes-to-the-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vote on Friday</a> the 13th for municipal and ward councils, but its outcome may decide the fate of the governing coalition in Kathmandu.Two mayoral races in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/coalition-calculation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bharatpur</a> and Pokhara are going to be especially crucial, and will test the durability of the 5-party syndicate that has been running the country since Prime Minister K P Oil of the UML was outvoted in Parliament last year.The coalition is made up of strange bedfellows: the centre right Nepali Congress (NC) with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre), Communist Party of Nepal Unified Socialists (US), as well as the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and the smaller Rastriya Janamorcha.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-goes-to-the-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal goes to the polls</a>, Shristi KarkiUnity is fraying within this <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fragile coalition</a>, and the need to field common candidates has not just widened the rift between partners, but also within the parties themselves.Even though the coalition agreed not to compete against each other and divided up the country’s 753 municipalities among themselves, in only one-third of them does it actually have common candidates.Final results of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/turning-a-new-leaf-in-2079/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local elections</a> will take at least a week, but it is clear that the outcome will be a referendum on national and provincial elections in November, and even on whether the coalition will remain intact.The future of the coalition seems to rest on voting results mainly in Bharatpur, Pokhara, Kathmandu, Biratnagar and Dadeldhura. Even among these, it will be Bharatpur and Pokhara that will be decisive.In Bharatpur, Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has staked all for the candidacy of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/06/04/bharatpur-repoll-condemned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">his daughter, Renu,</a> the incumbent mayor. The local mayoral aspirant Jagannath Poudel from the NC is up in arms — not so much against the Maoists, but against his own party that tried to force him to withdraw.Poudel refused, the NC expelled him, and now he is standing as an independent. Last week, coalition leaders including Prime Minister Deuba and Dahal addressed a campaign rally in Bharatpur in which Dahal went as far as to say that the country was “headed towards disaster” if his daughter was not elected. In Pokhara, the common coalition candidate is the CPN-US’s Dhanraj Acharya, after Deuba managed to convince his party's Bimal Bahadur Karki to withdraw. But many NC supporters are campaigning against Acharya in favour of the UML candidate.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-goes-to-the-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">"We are treated like ATMs"</a>, Hoang ChuIn Biratnagar, the coalition’s candidate is JSP chair Upendra Yadav’s son Amarendra Yadav, and this has got local NC supporters all worked up in a city that has always been their party’s bastion.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reward-performance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Friday’s elections</a> have brought intense rivalries within and between coalition members out in the open, and this cannot be a pleasant sight for Deuba and Dahal.In fact, Dahal has already been hinting that he will blame the Congress if Maoist common candidates lose in key constituencies like Bharatpur. If the coalition candidates lose in a majority of municipalities, it is conceivable that the alliance will split and the Communist parties may coalesce for the next phase of elections.Watching the clash within the coalition rather gleefully from the sidelines is the UML. The opposition party would like nothing better than to eaxct revenge on the coalition by splitting it. The UML has also forged a partnership with the Hindu-right RPP and the Moonie-backed Family Party.Despite the names of the political parties, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/periphery-within-the-periphery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this election</a> is not an ideological contest between the left and right. It is not even about evaluating the performance of the party candidates for the last five years, and questioning the decentralisation of corruption to local governments. In fact, it has become an exercise in selecting the best among the worst candidates.For the UML, this election is not about furthering its electoral agenda but defeating Maoist and CPN-US candidates in as many municipalities as possible. And vice versa for the Maoists and CPN-US.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Linden of the RPP</a> is going all out to weaken Kamal Thapa’s RPP Nepal, and the JSP would like nothing better than to oust Mahanta Thakur’s LSP.This local election is therefore more about defeating rivals within parties or those who have defected, than about issues like making Nepal’s cities, towns and villages more liveable. And this makes a mockery of the electoral process in a democracy.Santa Gaha Magar

Local poll, national impact

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

nepal-votes

On the road to vote

Local poll, national impact

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138