In a corner seat on the first floor of Bir Hospital, a middle-aged kidney patient winces in pain. Next door, a lady has nerve damage, and is unable to feel the growing wound on her sole. Two floors up, a crowd of desperate patients wait for an appointment with an endocrinologist. This week, the hospital in Kathmandu was filled with different medical complications. But many of them were related to a single disease: diabetes. “On any given day, we see up to 200 patients in our department, and more than half have to do with diabetes mellitus,” says consultant endocrinologist Manil Bajracharya at Bir. Diabetes mellitus is a condition where the body either does not produce enough insulin, or does not use it effectively, resulting in dangerously high blood sugar levels. Untreated, it can lead to life-threatening complications, including disorders of the cardiovascular system, eyes, kidneys, and nerves. In Nepal, the incidence of diabetes is on the rise, with an estimated 8.7% of adults between 20-79 living with the condition in 2021. This number was 3.6% in 2011, and is expected to reach 9.4% by 2045. “This rise most likely has to do with rapid changes in lifestyle and diet,” explains Bajracharya. “We have seen a shift from traditional cereal and vegetable-based diets to ones rich in animal products and processed foods high in fat and sugar content. This nutritional transition, combined with reduced physical activity, has significantly increased the risk of diabetes.” Bagmati Province has a five times higher prevalence of diabetes than the Karnali. Other provinces with urban centres like Gandaki and Lumbini also have a high burden of the disease. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-kidneys-to-save-nepal">Saving kidneys to save Nepal,</a> Rishi Kumar Kafle  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240607150624_2deb3cabd4a1367ea0656a84e817aa0c8bcc920bb4b33bda30037272931024b0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240607150624_2deb3cabd4a1367ea0656a84e817aa0c8bcc920bb4b33bda30037272931024b0" data-rendition-name="original" width="3952" height="3021" loading="lazy" alt="Diabetes in Nepalis NT"> </figure>  “Nepalis who migrate to cities often have reduced physical activity and transition to high-calorie diets, which contribute to obesity and elevate the risk of diabetes,” says Bajracharya. City dwellers are twice as likely to develop diabetes compared to rural Nepalis. Diabetes mellitus has no cure, but it can be managed through careful monitoring, lifestyle changes, and improving medications. Many people diagnosed with diabetes live for years without experiencing serious symptoms. But Nepal has a huge gap: 43.5% of adults living with diabetes do not know that they have the disease. This means two out of every five cases go undiagnosed, and therefore untreated.&nbsp; “If diabetes isn’t detected on time, it can become life-altering, and may even be fatal,” adds Bajracharya. Raman Tamang did not know he had diabetes until a wound started growing on his foot. “I first thought it was just a normal cut. But it grew and started stinking. It got so bad that my family started avoiding me,” says Tamang. When he was brought to Helping Hands Community Hospital in Chabahil, his wound had turned chronic. A patient with long term diabetes suffers nerve damage. This results in the loss of sensation in the feet. Elevation in blood glucose also reduces the body’s ability to heal wounds. “Minor cuts, scrapes, or wounds often go unnoticed until the body can no longer heal them on its own,” explains orthopaedic surgeon Hem Limbu at Helping Hands.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/junk-food-is-making-nepali-children-shorter">Junk food is making Nepali children shorter</a>, Marty Logan  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240607150624_4e61c5cb980f287da4393eaf277d0c7418dbe95ffb717bb761ffa6f25d8418de.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240607150624_4e61c5cb980f287da4393eaf277d0c7418dbe95ffb717bb761ffa6f25d8418de" data-rendition-name="original" width="1281" height="841" loading="lazy" alt="Diabetes in Nepalis NT"> </figure>  Called diabetic foot ulcers, such wounds often persist and in the worst cases may get infected and have to be amputated. Across the globe, 85% of all amputations happen due to diabetic foot ulcers. “We have to amputate almost half of all cases of diabetic foot because many patients come too late,” adds Limbu. Not amputating the leg can lead to infections spreading to the bloodstream. Studies have shown that 19-47% of diabetic patients in Nepal also have diabetic retinopathy, where high-glucose blood damages blood vessels in the retina of the eye, impairing vision. However, less than 30% of Nepalis who have diabetes know about this risk of blindness. And an additional 50% never get their eyes checked despite living with diabetes. Diabetes also elevates the risk of kidney failure, heart disease, and stroke.&nbsp; An estimated 9,000 Nepalis under 60 died due to some form of complication attributable to diabetes in 2021. Then there are 9.2% of Nepali adults who are prediabetic with elevated blood glucose levels that could reach diabetic levels if their lifestyle does not change. “But because most don’t know they have the condition, proper screening and awareness are essential,” says Hem Limbu. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/myopia">MYOPIA</a>, Yugeshwor Koirala  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240607150624_fcdcf19b68a2f40d6b17f9753cc6d6fa13d511dae2a4b649a665db07c9c23a72.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240607150624_fcdcf19b68a2f40d6b17f9753cc6d6fa13d511dae2a4b649a665db07c9c23a72" data-rendition-name="original" width="1262" height="849" loading="lazy" alt="Diabetes in Nepalis NT"> </figure>  Screening involves a blood test, and to manage high blood sugar, patients require insulin replacement therapy through injections or an insulin pump. But insulin resistance can often be managed with dietary modifications and exercise. “Prediabetes is gaining increasing recognition as a significant health concern, and a growing number of adults are seeking assistance even for mild symptoms,” notes Bajracharya. While this trend reflects improved awareness, it is equally vital to identify prediabetes in younger adults. Developing diabetes at a young age prolongs the duration of the condition and escalates the risk of complications. Timely diagnosis and effective management can mitigate complications: reducing the risk of diabetic retinopathy by up to 95%, foot ulcers and amputations by 85%, kidney disease by 70%, and both cardiovascular disease and stroke by 50%. “Prevention is better than cure for most diseases, but for diabetes, prevention and early detection are the only cures. Once the disease advances, reversing its effects becomes exceedingly challenging, necessitating lifelong symptom management,” adds Bajracharya. “So Nepal’s challenge isn’t just about forming an action plan for diabetes awareness, screening and treatment, but about implementing it in areas where essential drugs and equipment are out of reach.” In urban cities, the challenge is different. Drugs, diagnostic services and self-monitoring equipment are accessible, but so are processed foods and sugary drinks. “After essential healthcare services are in place, preventing and managing diabetes comes down to personal choices and attitudes. Whether or not diabetes continues to surge in Nepal, therefore, depends on each individual more than anything else,” says Bajracharya. &nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18379"> Diabetic dilemma</a>, Buddha Basnyat

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A deadly sugar rush

<figure><img width="1920" height="1280" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13aa9c7e80680e0a9934jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>South-East Asia has achieved the fastest rate of decline in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/fired-up-over-tobacco,920" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tobacco use</a> among any other region in the world in 20 years, sustaining tobacco control measures during the Covid pandemic, according to a <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-global-report-on-trends-in-prevalence-of-tobacco-use-2000-2025-third-edition" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new WHO Global Report</a>.
The region was estimated to have the highest average rate of tobacco use compared to all other WHO regions, with around 432 million users, or 29% of the total population.
However, the average prevalence of smoking among men in South-East Asia went down from 50% in 2000 to 25% in 2020, while tobacco smoking among women saw a sharp decline from 8.9% to 1.6% during the same timeframe, reports the 4th WHO Global Report on Trends in Prevalence of Tobacco Use 2000-2025.
South-East Asia at present has the highest proportion of the population covered by tobacco surveillance to monitor tobacco use prevalence and tobacco control policies. With continued efforts, smoking rates in the region could reach as low as 11% by 2025. 
“Sustained political commitment and relentless efforts by countries to strengthen surveillance, expand tobacco control measures including cessation services to help users quit tobacco are some of the key reasons for success,” said Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director of WHO South-East Asia.
In Nepal, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/in-a-puff-of-a-smoke,3739" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overall tobacco use went down</a> from 56% of the population in 2000 to 26% in 2020. Meanwhile, 2020 figures put 15% of the Nepali population over 15 years old as smokers.
However, the report lists Nepal among the only two countries in the region, along with India, that are likely to achieve the targeted 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025. 
Nepal introduced its Tobacco Control and Regulation Act in 2011 and has some of the strictest smoking laws. The country is far ahead of other nations in the region with its anti-tobacco campaigns and is among few in the region to have scaled-up tobacco cessation services.
However, Nepal, which has imposed a 27% tax on the retail price of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Kicking-butts,329" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tobacco</a>, has the lowest rates of taxation on tobacco products in the region. The WHO recommends a minimum 75% tax share of the retail price of tobacco.
For packaging, Nepal has implemented large-sized graphic health warnings on tobacco packs, requiring that they cover 90% of the front and back of packages. Pictorial, or graphic, warnings are one measure contained in the global blueprint for fighting tobacco use: the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Nepal joined the treaty in 2007. 
The FCTC and MPOWER package, a set of six cost-effective and high impact measures to help countries reduce demand and supply of tobacco, contributed significantly to the implementation and effectiveness of tobacco control measures across the country.
Singh also reaffirmed WHO support to member countries towards tackling non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18267#.YZYlumBByUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">controlling tobacco</a>, emphasising the importance of WHO’s ‘best buys’— a set of cost-effective interventions for the prevention and control of NCDs.
“The best buys…continue to be at the core of the Regional response, recognising the need for countries to identify &amp; implement the most effective, feasible, and affordable interventions whatever their resource setting,” said Singh.
With sustained and accelerated efforts, and using the power of innovation, countries in the region can fulfill their commitment to FCTC and to the 2030 Sustainable Development agenda, leaving no one behind, read a statement by WHO South-East Asia.
Globally, there are now 1.30 billion tobacco users compared to 1.32 billion in 2015. This number is expected to drop to 1.27 billion by 2025.  Sixty countries are on track to achieving the voluntary global target of a 30% reduction in tobacco use between 2010 and 2025, two years ago only 32 countries were on track.

Tobacco use in South-East Asia declines

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151120/636a66739c7e80680e059980jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo : BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>There used to be a time when the main public health threat in Nepal was from infectious diseases like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-mosquito-that-changed-nepals-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malaria</a>, encephalitis, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TB</a> and typhoid. Whether vector-borne or transmitted through contaminated air or water, the most cost-effective way to address them was through prevention. Communication was the first line of defence against communicable diseases.Things have changed. Awareness has grown because literacy rates are up. Most Nepalis now suffer from non-communicable ailments like cardiovascular diseases, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/diabetes-in-south-asia,3018">diabetes</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/A-mysterious-rash-of-kidney-failures,3639" target="_blank" rel="noopener">renal failure</a> and malignancies. These need treatment in medical facilities at a time when the over-commercialisation of hospitals has made healthcare unaffordable for a majority of the population. In fact, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poor health</a> is making Nepalis poorer.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Is free health care possible in Nepal?</a>, S P Kalaunee<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37821&amp;preview_nonce=9ce6a7c55d&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federalism leaves Nepal’s medical sector ailing,</a> Sewa BhattaraiAlso, communicable diseases have not been completely overcome. Diarrhoeal dehydration and other water-carried infections are still major killers. One of the reasons Nepal’s progress in reducing child mortality has stalled is because of the state’s failure to ensure adequate and safe drinking water in remote regions. In this paper we have also reported on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nearly-half-of-nepali-children-still-malnourished/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stunting and wasting among children</a> due to malnutrition.In addition, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worsening air pollution</a> has caused an epidemic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which has led to lung infections in all age brackets and causing terminal pneumonia and other complications in the elderly. At current levels of PM2.5 concentration in the air, studies show, the average lifespan of city dwellers in Nepal could be reduced by up to four years.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-microcosm-of-all-of-the-changes-in-world-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"Nepal is a microcosm of all of the change in world health"</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poor health</a>, EditorialNepal’s burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries has doubled in the last 25 years, with nearly 15% caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-deadly-roads-take-their-toll/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">road traffic accidents</a> or natural disasters. Traffic accidents are now the second biggest killer of young Nepalis. Just in the past three weeks, 90 people have been killed on highways due to poor road condition or carelessness.A vivid indication of the threat of non-communicable diseases is today’s prevalence of diabetes. South Asians are genetically more susceptible to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, but there are now new risk factors caused by increasing rural to urban migration. While the world prevalence average for both types of diabetes is 8%, research has shown that 14% of people in Dharan suffer from the disease. Taplejung, from where many have migrated to Dharan, has a rate of only 1%. The reason is clear: increased intake of carbohydrates and a more sedentary lifestyle when people move to cities.To meet these challenges, Nepal desperately needs <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">affordable and accessible medical care</a>. At the moment, hospital treatment is neither. The poor in remote, underserved areas of the country are disproportionately vulnerable. As our report from Bajura shows, the problem is further complicated because confusion over federalism, budget and jurisdiction has left most rural government hospitals underfunded and underserved. It is imperative that the government act quickly to resolve the retention crisis caused by medical staff getting themselves transferred out of their jobs in remote areas.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A national health insurance is not as easy as it looks</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is how to upgrade Nepal's rural health</a>, Sewa BhattaraiA survey last year showed that half of all <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medical expenditure of Nepalis families</a> is out-of-pocket, and 60% of that is for treatment of non-communicable diseases and injuries. The federal government allocates only about 10% of its budget to health care, and the focus is still on communicable diseases. Donor priority is also not on non-communicable diseases and injuries. A study of government hospitals by the Nick Simons Institute shows a huge unmet need in remote areas for basic surgery like caesarean sections and orthopaedics.One bright spot ahead is the success of pilot insurance schemes being tried out in various parts of the country. In a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commentary this week</a>, S P Kalaunee of Nyaya Health, an NGO that helps the government manage hospitals in Achham and Dolakha, presents a proven 60:25:15 formula of health insurance. In this arrangement, non-profits, the private sector and all three levels of government can make medical care affordable to all Nepalis, if upscaled. Under the scheme, 60% of the cost of care comes from insurance, provincial governments pay 25% and municipalities take care of the remaining 15%.Parts of the scheme are being tried out in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bayalpata Hospital in Achham</a> (which last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bayalpata-hospital-in-nepal-wins-global-design-award/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">won the Global Architecture Festival award</a> in Amsterdam for its design). Insurance reimbursement covers the cost of insurance-covered care, the local government allocates funds required for basic and emergency healthcare, and the provincial government pays for managing the cost of referrals beyond insurance coverage. Internationally, this has become an issue with 12 December marked as Universal Health Coverage Day.Nepal’s constitution now guarantees basic and emergency healthcare as fundamental rights of citizens, and puts the responsibility on to the state. The government  can no longer keep passing the buck on providing universal insurance for its citizens.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>Nepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/480" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #480 of 11-17 December 2009</a> carried an <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16572#.XfId7ZMzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interview on page 1 with Baburam Bhattarai</a>, who was then vice-chair of the Maoist party.  Excerpts:‘From the very beginning, we have said that the basis of the federal system should be nationality. In Marxist terms, nationality means a common language, geography, economy and psychological make-up. A group of people that shares these qualities is called a nationality.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151120/636a66769c7e80680e059981jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="392" height="600">On this basis we have proposed to constitute federal autonomous units in Nepal and we also practised this during the People’s War. Since the very beginning we have been consistent that federalism should be along the lines of nationality.’

POOR HEALTH MAKES NEPALIS POORER

For many decades it was an accepted truth that Nepal’s main public health threat was from infectious diseases, and the most cost-effective way to address that was through prevention. In other words, the first line of defence against communicable diseases was communication.Whether it was gastric infections caused by contaminated water, respiratory ailments due to cold and pollution, or diseases spread by insect vectors like malaria – the goal was to spread public awareness about prevention. Radio jingles about oral rehydration salts or acute respiratory infections in children indirectly helped save millions of lives over the years.Many of these challenges remain. Despite dramatic progress, many Nepalis still lack safe drinking water – not just in the roadless hinterland but right here in the heart of the capital. There are frequent <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/%20jajarkot-open-defecation-free,2023">cholera</a> epidemics. Children’s lungs are still affected by indoor smoke from wood fires. Malaria is on the comeback due to resistance and there is an annual epidemic of dengue and encephalitis.Yet, compounding these endemic infections, there is now an <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Communicati-about-non-communicable-diseases,1153">increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries</a> (NCDI). New lifestyle-related cardio-vascular afflictions, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) caused by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/every-breath-we-take-air%20pollution,3536">pollution</a>, or <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">mental health disorders</a> have added to the burden of disease and disability. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/diabetes-in-south-asia,3018">South Asians are already genetically susceptible to diabetes</a>, and now there are new risk factors due to migration to urban centres. While the world average for prevalence of both types of diabetes is 8%, more than 14% of people in urban centres like Dharan have diabetes – even though the prevalence for rural Taplejung, for instance, is only 1%.A study by The Nepal NCDI Poverty Commission released this week shows that the burden of NCDIs has doubled in the last 25 years. More than half of all death and disability today are caused by NCDIs, with nearly 15% caused by injuries in conflict, natural disasters or highway accidents. <img width="900" height="802" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/636517699c7e80680e02c275jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Being afflicted with an NCDI (or chronic disease) is more fatal in Nepal than in developed countries because of affordability and restricted accessibility to adequate medical treatment. The poor are disproportionately vulnerable. The NCDI burden in Nepal is also different than in other parts of the world – there is a higher incidence of ischemic cardiac conditions, asthma, neurological disorders, cancers caused by untreated infections and injuries, for instance.For us, the report’s main finding, and most damning inference, is about how <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028">treatment of NCDIs is driving Nepalis into indebetedness and penury</a>. The survey shows that half of all medical expenditure of families is out-of-pocket, and 60% of that is for treatment of NCDIs. This is because the government spends only 11% of its budget on health care, and only 6.4% of that is for treatment of non-communicable diseases.Despite the proven link between chronic ailments and poverty, donors still allocate only 1% of their development assistance for NCDIs.Treatment of injuries, gastro-intestinal infections, heart diseases, cancers, kidney and liver diseases are the most impoverishing NCDs for households. The report’s main conclusions are corroborated by our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-the-art-rural-hospital/">field report</a> from Achham and Kavre this week  about how the lack of even basic surgical facilities in district hospitals and health posts is forcing Nepalis to undertake expensive and extended trips to private hospitals in the cities.Another recent study of 39 government hospitals commissioned by the Nick Simons Institute (NSI) showed a huge unmet need in remote areas for basic surgery like caesarians, orthopaedics, and abdominal operations. Nepal’s surgery rate is well below the Lancet Commission’s target of 5,000 operations per 100,000 population. Only one-third of patients currently can reach an orthopedic surgeon within two hours of travel. <img width="640" height="456" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/6365176b9c7e80680e02c276jpeg.jpg" alt="">The public-private partnership models that NSI and Possible are carrying out in remote government hospitals are ways to plug this gap: ensuring minimum staffing of a MDGP physician, anaesthesia assistant, staff nurse and biomedical technician in each hospital can offer basic treatment and surgery in remote areas, reduce the need for referrals, and save household income. At present Nepal’s density of hospitals with such staffing and equipment is at 0.4 per 100,000 population, as against the Lancet Commission’s recommendation of 20/100,000.The Nepal NCDI Poverty Commission report suggests additional measures: national health care delivery should respond to the increasing burden of NCDIs by decentralising.Impoverishment of households due to the high cost of treatment should be addressed through disease-specific policies for high-cost conditions and expansion of insurance coverage.It is often said that health is wealth, but in Nepal wealth is health. That can only be changed by making treatment of chronic conditions and injuries accessible, affordable, inclusive and equitable.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-the-art-rural-hospital/">State of the art rural hospital</a>, Marty logan <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028">A national health insurance scheme is not as easy as it looks</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Communicati-about-non-communicable-diseases,1153">Communicating about non-communicable diseases</a>,  Elina Pradhan and Bigyan R Bista

Poor  health

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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