<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92139c7e80680e06f12ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="694"/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>If anyone had wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have been able to do a better job than Prime Minister K P Oli of the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party. How did that happen? It may be necessary to recap the story so far.Halfway through his term, after the constitutional ban on voting a government out of office expired last year, Oli’s arch-rival within the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQW8YHsCRwMrIBjRqyMdwNXEmgjw">started trying to unseat him</a> either from the government or party, and then from both.Disgruntled by Oli’s moves to sideline them, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6eQuDm2Pbgt9hUb7WOuFLGvmpmw">sided with Dahal.</a> Increasingly isolated, and getting wind of a no-confidence vote, Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHsDEWGjDIxOjTlO8qURjT77_0OUA">dissolved the Lower House</a> on 20 December. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwvmBpTOZAsCsPIFmPxHZirJeKtg">Supreme Court restored it</a> two months later, but also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOrbdAF9mzMj7KufsDiRN1o2NJnQ">disbanded the NCP</a>. By itself the UML did not have enough seats to stay in government.Instead of wooing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEvfue0MH3lJ1lNP99vmlHXhU7Osw">Nepal-Khanal faction </a>with positions in the UML central committee and cabinet, Oli drove them even deeper into an opposition alliance of Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC) and the Nepali Congress.What followed was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFVkw8yFiE1JiwClvWfAFAEY1n7Tw">theatrics of the night of 21-22 May</a>, when Oli staked a claim of majority in the House of Representatives that he had himself just dissolved to challenge the bid by the NC-MC led coalition to make Sher Bahadur Deuba prime minister for the fourth time. President Bhandari then obliged by rejecting both claims, and announcing fresh elections for November.Deuba then led a group of 146 MPs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQnu-1oNVcbLrv7b55lRv2vgSlOg">file a writ in the Supreme Court</a> on 24 May against the second House dissolution and his appointment as prime minister. For good measure,  another 29 petitions were also filed against PM Oli and President Bhandari.For the past fortnight, the Supreme Court had been bogged down in a debate about the composition of the Constitutional Bench. Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana was forced to give into pressure to drop two justices that the petitioners felt were tainted by their verdict disbanding the NCP in February, and replace them in the Bench with justices based on seniority.The Attorney General then raised an objection about two new justices, questioning their impartiality. However, on Wednesday Justice Ishwar Khatiwada said enough is enough, and there was no point wasting any more time on debating the composition of the Bench.The Court then asked the Prime Minister’s Office, Prime Minister Oli, President Bhandari and her office, as well as Parliament secretariat to show cause for the dissolution of the House within seven days. It also announced a strict 32-hour timetable for eight days of hearings beginning on 23 June, allocating specific dates and durations for lawyers from both sides, as well as for the amicus curie. The interim decision is expected on 4 July.The Supreme Court has had to step in where the leaders, political parties and their factions, and Parliament could not find a way out of the differences. As a result, K P Oli’s actions first led to the destruction of the NCP, which was formed in 2018 after the election victory of the UML and Maoist Centre. In doing so, Oli took away some veteran war-era Maoist commanders like Ram Bahadur Thapa with him.With Dahal out of the way, Oli’s sights were then aimed at ousting Nepal. This means the Unified Marxist-Lenisists are no longer unified. But even the Nepal faction is divided between those who want to keep striving for party unity and another that wants to form a new party.Oli’s power games even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVM_R7YBWNjV5xnocaqANqrFTznw">split the JSP</a> right down the middle. The Mahanta Thakur-led faction has now joined the government with 10 ministers, while the Upendra Yadav-Baburam Bhattarai group has stayed out. Oli replaced his trusted Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali with the untested Raghubir Mahaseth, someone he had sacked for incompetence just last year as Physical Infrastructure Minister.The move is probably an attempt to cash in on Mahaseth’s reputed war-chest, appeal to the Madhes, and since he is from the UML, keep a check on deputy prime minister Rajendra Mahato within the Cabinet. Some have even seen the appointment as Oli trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLoy51qsVw6b4oa-w-u8z02HHpWA">appease the BJP in India.</a>The reshuffle highlighted the government’s inability to focus attention on protecting Nepalis with vaccines while the virus is ravaging the countryside, and addressing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/jabs-for-jobs/">loss of jobs</a> during the lockdown. In fact, there have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcWfXpiWylV3eXtnyn6ZZlsXzqQQ">three health ministers</a> since the pandemic began, and five since Prime Minister Oli took office in 2018.It now looks likely that the Supreme Court will reinstate the House of Representatives again, and if that happens there will soon be another government.When K P Oli was in jail during the Panchayat, he was an avid chess player and cell-mate Puranjan Acharya remembers him as being a sore loser. Oli needs to hold on to power, and for that he has Plan B: to try to keep the UML intact so that even if the House is reinstated he can still cobble together a majority.However, that plan may have been thwarted this week by the Nepal faction rejecting Oli’s olive branch and conditional offer for rapprochement. This leaves things pretty much up in the air till the Supreme Court gives its decision in three weeks.Some young Turks in the UML have not given up on keeping the UML united, and for this they need to get Oli and Nepal to patch up. The trouble is that the distrust between the two is so deep that they would both rather partner with leaders from another party than their own.The UML’s Yogesh Bhattarai blames both Oli and Nepal for their inability to reconcile differences: “Comrade K P Oli is not ready to work with Comrade Madhav Nepal and Comrade Jhalnath Khanal from his own party, but is willing to share power with Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato … and Comrade Nepal is unwilling to work with Comrade K P Oli, but is happy to form a coalition with Sher Bahadur Deuba, Prachanda and Upendra Yadav.”Bhattarai asks on social media: “Who, why and for what is this thing dragging on? The root of the problem is that the two leaders cannot get along. To save party unity, they need to find common understanding.”

Kunda Dixit

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Going down with the ship

<figure><img width="962" height="1068" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141140/636bae1f9c7e80680e077fd5jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chhetri</figcaption></figure>The back-stabbing in Nepali politics is now going into hyper timelapse. It is getting difficult to figure out exactly who is doing whom in.Nevertheless, it does look like reports of Prime Minister K P Oli’s imminent political demise were greatly exaggerated. We ourselves have written numerous editorials in the past six months either predicting the prime minister’s ouster, or advised him to step down for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-oligarchy/">governance failure</a>, and mishandling the COVID-19 crisis. But the wily Oli has outfoxed his rivals yet again. Even his enemies hand it to him: this is one crafty fellow. He was outnumbered in the party Secretariat, outgunned in the Standing Committee, his Cabinet was mutinous, his hold on the Nepal Communist Party seemed tenuous, and he was playing brinkmanship with India. But not only has he held on, he seems to have turned things 180 degrees in his favour.The history of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/alpha-males/">power struggle</a> (some say ego clash) between Prime Minister Oli and his NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal goes back to their ‘gentlemen agreement’ to take turns at prime ministership. But Oli dragged his feet, and when Dahal confronted him last year, Oli said OK-OK, I’ll make you executive head of the party if I get to stay on as PM. Dahal agreed, but Oli double crossed him. In April, Dahal stepped up pressure again and Oli was isolated. At which point, he got saved unexpectedly by India unilaterally opening a road in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-passes-map-bill-india-reacts/">Lipu Lekh through Nepali territory</a>. Oli grabbed the chance to play the nationalism card.This bought him some time, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-pm-oli-under-pressure-to-resign/">Dahal turned on the heat again</a> in the Standing Committee this month. Once more, Oli fell back on anti-Indian rhetoric: accusing the embassy spooks of trying to oust him and then declaring that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/">Lord Ram was a Nepali</a>.This time, the India card did not work. What was more effective was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ruling-party-on-verge-of-split/">Oli’s threat to split the party</a> and revive the old UML. This alarmed the Chinese, whose ambassador to Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/">Hou Yanqi openly lobbied to prevent a party split</a>. Her message from the highest level of the Chinese Communist Party to comrades in Nepal was: stay united.This message resonated with the mid and lower rank and file of the NCP, who then upped their pressure on the two leaders to sort out their ego differences and not hold the party and country hostage anymore.Which was why last week, just when it was looking like he was cornered at last, Prime Minister Oli managed to wriggle out of it again. After multiple marathon one-on-ones with Dahal, Oli hammered out a deal in which for the sake of party unity Oli would stay on as PM,  he would help Dahal get elected as sole party leader in the November convention, and Oli would reshuffle the cabinet to induct some Dahal loyalists. Oli and Dahal then went over to President Bidya Devi Bhandari on Sunday and got her to stand witness to the pact. In return, Dahal had to agree to back the UML principle of ‘people’s democracy’ first espoused by President Bhandari’s late husband Madan Bhandari, and drop the Maoist ideology once and for all.All this would have been a workable compromise, except that Dahal’s allies (former UML prime ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhal Nath Khanal, et al) were completely left out of the picture. They were so incensed by having the rug pulled from under them that they trooped off to Khumaltar on Monday to ask Dahal for a clarification.At first Dahal denied there was deal, but admitted that to save party unity he had to strike a compromise with Oli, but that he was committed to the alliance with Nepal and Khanal. By now, Oli had got other fence-sitters like Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and Bam Dev Gautam once more to his side.What changed Dahal’s mind appears to be pressure from the second-tier leaders like Janardan Sharma, Barsha Man Pun and Shakti Basnet to save party unity. Dahal must have also been convinced that even if the party split, there was little chance of him being prime minister. But the final straw was probably Dahal’s  realisation that his real rival within the party was not Oli, but Madhav Kumar Nepal.However, given that back-stabbing, breaking promises and not acting as agreed are the hallmarks of Nepali politics, it is not certain how long the Oli-Dahal pact will endure and if it will just be the latest in the long list of betrayals. The tragedy in all this is that the multi-layered crisis Nepal and Nepalis are facing does not figure at all in this power struggle.

You stab my back, I stab yours

<figure><img width="800" height="1101" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a216d9c7e80680e04173djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Cartoon: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>The ruling Nepal Communist Party, formed by the union of the former rebel Maoists and their erstwhile UML enemy, has squandered nine months of its five-year tenure.Prime Minister Oli has publicly blamed his own party for undermining the government. He said recently, “Our party’s leaders and cadre are silent when the government is being criticised.” That barb appeared to be aimed at his co-Chair and prime minister-in-waiting Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his former Maoist comrades, who neither support nor censure the government. It is as if Dahal is letting Oli sink his ship, patiently waiting for his turn at the helm in 2020. Analysts blame the NCP’s debacle largely on Prime Minister Oli for being out of touch with reality, and making wild and hollow promises. But the other reason is that the two constituent parties in the NCP still have not reconciled their widely different political cultures. Says a senior UML leader: “After the unification, we thought we could make the Maoists in our image. But we are now behaving like the Maoists used to.”Indeed, the NCP is now run by the two Chairs who rarely consult each other, or the rank and file. The UML’s tradition of close consultation among the senior leadership is gone, and its strong nationwide cadre network has not been replaced with a new party base.The NCP’s much-delayed Standing Committee meeting this week brought the UML-Maoist fissure into the open, with Oli facing much of the criticism.The meeting acknowledged the delay in truly uniting the two parties, and said it would take steps to correct that. The question is: will it narrow the distance between Capt Oli and his Co-pilot?

The ship of state

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Going down with the ship

You stab my back, I stab yours

The ship of state