<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1109c7e80680e0d7066jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="712"/>Piecemeal and whimsical decisions by governments about Nepal’s transport infrastructure have not only drained scarce resources, but also created long-term economic inefficiencies.The Transport Policy of 2001 is obsolete, and over-run by vote bank politics. Two parallel East-West Highways and one railway along the entire length of the 20km wide Tarai is a triplication, and sure to yield negative economic returns.The railway’s bisection will inhibit natural trickle-down development affect and further settlement expansion southwards. Water impounding is another challenge, and Nepal is already suffering from drainage obstructions by embankments on the Indian side.Then there is the Madan Bhandari Highway along the Chure Range just 20km north of the East-West Mahendra Highway. It has disturbed the ecologically fragile region, intensified deforestation which in turn has unleashed sedimentation and floods.The ongoing widening of the Kathmandu-Pokhara Prithivi Highway to 4 lanes, parallel to the 2-lane Pushpalal Mid Hill Highway is not justifiable, either. North-South links for India-Nepal-China tripartite trade do not make sense if Korala on the China border is linked to Gaidakot, which is an Inner Tarai city with no border checkpoint.A road connection to Sunauli on the Indian border is a better option. But the alignment of the Kali Gandaki Corridor in Gulmi and Baglung have been politically determined, jeopardising the much more convenient route via Syangja and Parbat which would have saved time and cost.Out in the east, the roadhead connecting Khandbari to hydropower projects along the Arun Valley was built in the wrong direction towards Basantapur from Hile, instead of Leguwaghat involving a detour of 40km.The previous government set aside budget for the Chandragiri–Chitlang–Palung– Chitwan Expressway with a design speed of more than 100km/h to be implemented by the private sector. This pie-in-the-sky expressway is doomed because the Kathmandu-Tarai Fast Track, is already under construction by the Nepal Army.This kind of haphazard, ad hoc planning is not just happening at the federal level. Provincial and local governments are also on a full-scale road building spree, often duplicating each other’s plans and wasting money.Nepal’s Strategic Highways are supposed to harness the development potentials of adjoining regions to complement agricultural and manufacturing, spur education and tourism. Such highway arteries are also essential because of national defense and security considerations.Strategic Highways have to be fully backed by a national political consensus, and strictly adhered to. The 2001 Transport Policy has to be redrafted to reflect Nepal’s new federal structure, changing demographics and economy.The 2021 census revealed that although the Tarai makes up 23% of Nepal’s area, 54% of the country’s 30 million people live there. On the other hand, only 6% of the population lives in the high mountains and trans-Himalaya, which make up 35% of the country’s area. The mid-mountains have 40% of the population and 42% of the area.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1139c7e80680e0d7067jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="501">Nepal’s population is on the move and this has created new urban hubs in the Tarai: the eastern conurbation based in Itahari, the Madhes centre in Janakpur, the Inner Tarai conurbation in Chitwan, the Butwal and Lumbini hubs, and Nepalganj and Dhangadi conurbations in the far west.Surkhet, Pokhara and Kathmandu are the mid-mountain population centres, and interconnectedness among these nine focal points should be the first principle for transport network planning.The 24 custom checkpoints with India, prominently Kakadbhitta, Jogbani, Birganj (Raxual), Bhairawa (Sunauli), Nepalganj, Dhangadi (Gauriphanta) and Gaddachauki (Banbasa) need to have roadheads aligned with Indian railway terminals, and treated as obligatory points for Nepal’s domestic transport network.To the north, there are only five main trading points based on topography and connectivity: Yari, Nheghung, Rasuwagadi, Tatopani and Kimathanka which are conveniently located along rivers that start in Tibet and cut through the Himalaya.In addition to the interconnecting all these points, high-speed connectivity will be required to accelerate growth and exploit locational advantages for which the shortest alignments are necessary. This means Nepal has to move towards expressways.The Mahendra Highway and the Nijgad–Kathmandu fast-track will be the arteries of Nepal’s transport network, but the development quadrilateral of Kathmandu–Pokhara–Lumbini– Nijgad–Kathmandu needs to also be factored.Raxual–Rasuwaghadi is a low hanging fruit among the North South corridors as the Raxual to Kathmandu section is under construction and the Kathmandu–Rasuwagadi segment is a relatively short 100km, albeit technologically demanding. The ongoing plans to construct three other North–South roads: Biratnagar–Kimathanka, Bhairawa–Korala and Nepalganj–Hilsa require realignment in a number of sections, and the design standards have to be improved if a trilateral agreement between India, Nepal and China can be concluded.Expressways must have design speeds of 100–110 km/h with hard shoulders. They need CCTVs, numbered junctions, regulated entries and exits, at least two lanes each direction with median strip and restricted grade crossings. Slow vehicles are prohibited.This means that in mountainous contours, a number of considerable stretches may require viaducts or tunnels to also reduce environmental impact. Passages for wild animal crossings are mandatory. The critical issue here will be financing.International creditors like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are engaged in upgrading the Mahendra Highway. But their design standards will have to be revisited. The private sector could be urged to build the Pokhara-Kathmandu, Pokhara-Butwal and Kathmandu Rasuwagadi expressways under at Build Operate Transfer scheme.Expressway concessionaires and other investors should also be encouraged to invest in tourism and other industries. Planning industrial corridors along expressways and setting up required infrastructure will be the backbone of Nepal’s future prosperity.Chandra B Shrestha is former member of the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA).

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On the fast lane to expressways

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1359c7e80680e0d7071jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="501"/>Imagine it is the year 2070 AD. You board a train in Janakpur at 7:37AM, enjoy scenic views between tunnel stretches, and arrive into Kathmandu Central Station’s cavernous underground hall at 8:43AM.You take the escalator up to the South Exit and emerge on to the front steps of what was once Narayanhiti Palace, gazing on to a broad plaza and Darbar Marg beyond. You stroll along dust-free streets to New Road, take care of  business and hop onto the Metro back to Central Station to catch the 12:46PM West-Nepal Express.After a four-minute ride through a tunnel, the train stops briefly among the high-rise bank and office buildings that long ago replaced the ageing factories and vehicle service centres at what was once Balaju Industrial Estate.At mid-day the station is quiet, unlike in the mornings and evenings when it is crowded with tens of thousands of people who come by train to work from outside the valley. After several tunnels and quick stops in Bidur, Galchhi, Charaundi and Shaktikhor, you reach Bharatpur at 1:35PM. You finish work in Chitwan and catch the 5:30PM East-West train to Janakpur, reaching home at 7PM.This may sound like a dream, but dreaming is important for long-term planning.On 27 August 1893 industrialist Adolf Guyer-Zeller was hiking in the Swiss Alps with his daughter when he imagined riding a train from the pasture at Kleine Scheidegg to the mountain viewpoint at Jungfraujoch.By 1896 he had permission and financing in place and began construction. The project was completed in 1912 and still brings thousands of daily visitors to Europe’s highest train station, 3,435m above sea level.Railroads are the backbone of Switzerland’s train network, putting much of the mountainous country (one third the size of Nepal) into commuting distance to the largest city Zurich, while transporting across the Alps tens of million tons of freight a year between Switzerland’s larger neighbours. The country's first rail masterplan was prepared by British engineers in 1850, and big parts of today’s network was built over the next 60 years, at a time when Switzerland’s GDP was comparable to Nepal’s today.In Nepal, railroads are back in mainstream discourse with the opening of the updated railway from Jaynagar past Janakpur to Kurtha. Nepalis now have  firsthand experience of how trains can cheaply transport thousands of people at a time.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1379c7e80680e0d7072jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1137" height="640">While railroads have high up-front costs and need phased construction with long-term financing, they are right for Nepal’s future for a number of reasons:Electric trains will use clean domestic energy instead of imported fossil fuels.Railroads carry more people (and freight), faster and more safely using a narrower right-of-way than roads. Railroads thus have less impact on agricultural land, slope stability, and even urban vitality compared to multi-lane roads clogged with traffic.Travel by train is smoother than by road, allowing passengers to read, write and do other productive activities while traveling, without the risk of congestion delays faced in road traffic.Trains make it feasible for people to commute daily from 50-150km away, reducing the pressure to migrate to large cities for education and work.As the world reduces fossil fuel consumption to mitigate climate change, air travel will necessarily become rarer and more expensive, as it does not have ready clean-energy options. Nepal’s neighbours have extensive railroad networks; direct transboundary trains could bring to Nepal large numbers of tourists without relying on air travel.Nepal’s location between large and growing economies means there is the potential for trans-Himalayan freight trains to partially displace sea-shipping and air freight between the two countries.Several potential railroad projects in Nepal are in the pipeline. These include a freight connector from Jogbani border to Biratnagar, expansion of the line from Kurtha to Bardibas, as well as more ambitious projects including a train from Raxaul to Kathmandu, and a train along Mahendra Highway, with side-connectors to Biratnagar, Bhairawa-Lumbini, and Nepalganj.Most ambitious is the proposal to bring trains from across the Tibetan Plateau to Kathmandu via Rasuwagadi-Bidur, with 98% of the track in tunnels or on bridges.There have been proposals for possible extensions to Pokhara and Lumbini, but without clarity on alignment. In addition, there have been several proposals for a metro rail system for the Kathmandu Valley.What is missing from the discourse on individual railroad lines is the longer term thinking of what a 50-year masterplan for Nepal’s network should look like. The individual lines considered so far need to be part of this larger future network, with design decisions for the individual lines based on the masterplan.Preparing a five-decade Railway Masterplan for Nepal needs to be led by National Planning Commission (NPC) in consultation with stakeholders in Nepal and experts abroad. Several questions need to be addressed early in the master planning process:First: What kind of ultimate railroad network would address Nepal’s domestic needs in the context of long-term plans for land-use, agriculture, industry and urban growth? Which cities should grow, and what should be their catchment areas?  Where should agricultural land and forests be protected (and thus no stations built) and from where will products need to reach the market? Should the east-west railroad connect the towns along Mahendra Highway or run further south? Why?Should it go through Madi Valley and Chitwan National Park or via Hetauda-Bharatpur? Where should the main interchange between the proposed Raxaul-Kathmandu line and the East-West line be located?Would it make sense to co-locate it with the proposed Nijgad airport the way Frankfurt and Paris airports integrated long-distance train stations? While many critical questions about the airport project remain, including its exact final location, a direct rail link to Kathmandu would certainly improve the airport’s useability compared to four lanes of traffic jam on a ‘fast track’.But should the Raxaul line terminate in Chobar, or continue underground to a city centre station as imagined in the opening story?  What additional places in Nepal need to be connected to the railroad network? Dhangadi? Surkhet? Dang Valley? Pokhara? Dharan? Are there mountain towns whose access will be easier to maintain via cable car rather than roads?  How should the base stations of these cable cars be integrated into the train network?Second: What kind of a railroad network would meet Nepal’s needs for interconnectivity with the neighbouring countries? Direct trains to Nepal from Indian, Chinese and Bangladeshi cities would enhance tourism in Nepal. There is already a twice-weekly train from New Jalpaiguri near Siliguri to Dhaka. Can the end of Nepal’s East-West trains be connected to New Jalpaiguri to allow direct trains from Nepal to Bangladesh? How would that be negotiated?Third: What kind of a railroad network would allow Nepal to optimally facilitate and earn from transit trade across the Himalaya?  Currently the proposed line from China is expected to descend to Bidur and then to climb up 800m to end in Tokha, north of Kathmandu, while the train from Raxaul on the India border is expected to end at Chobar, south of Kathmandu. This does not allow easy transfer of passengers and freight.Would trans-Himalayan freight not travel more easily along a track from Bidur to Galchhi and through a tunnel to the Rapti Valley without climbing up to Kathmandu?  Or are there other north-south corridors that could work better than the Trisuli Valley, such as Arun Valley?We also need to keep in mind that freight trains often run at night, when their noise may be un-welcome in larger cities.Fourth: since our neighbouring countries’ railroads use different track standards, which one should we align with? Most of China’s trunk routes are ‘standard gauge’ with a 1435mm (4’ 8.5”) separation between tracks, similar to Europe’s. Trunk lines in India and Bangladesh use ‘broad gauge’, with a 1676mm (5’ 6”) separation. Janakpur’s existing train is broad gauge.Given the larger number of potential border crossings to India, does it make sense for Nepal to use broad gauge throughout most of its trunk network, allowing direct trains from cities in Nepal to India and Bangladesh? Then, how far into Nepal should China’s standard gauge line come?That is partly determined by where there is enough space for a transfer station where cranes lift shipping containers between Chinese and South Asian trains, and where tourists coming from China cross the platform to board Nepali, Indian and Bangladeshi trains. Does Bidur have space for such a station?If so, we could have a broad gauge line coming up from Nijgad to Kathmandu, passing under the city, descending to Bidur and then heading southwest to Galchhi and the Rapti Valley to re-connect with the East-West line, while a standard gauge line runs north from Bidur.Fifth: Where do we need to learn from? Engineering challenges and costs increase greatly when trains leave flat open areas to run through mountains or under cities.  Design decisions can have large impacts on cost, durability and usability.Before we invest in construction, it is important for us to learn from the experience and expertise in other countries. While discussion have started with India and China, it will be particularly worthwhile to learn from Japan’s experience in building and maintaining railroads in steep terrain with frequent earthquakes.It will be important to learn from Austria and Switzerland about how they manage transit freight trains. And learn from the experiences of European cities on how to build effective intermodal connections that tie together urban and long-distance transport while maintaining and enhancing the vitality of historic cities.In addition, it will be worthwhile to study the financing models used in more recent railroad projects in Kenya, Ethiopia, Thailand and Laos.Designing and building a national railway network will require longer-term planning than we are used to in Nepal. The leaders who plant the seeds today may not even be alive by the time the investments bear fruit. But there is no time to waste.We need a masterplan to guide a phase-wise construction of our railway network in well thought-out, predictable and financially sustainable way. Nepal’s railroads will not only generate employment in construction and operation, but it will also bring efficiency and interconnectivity to Nepal’s economy. They will shrink costs and distances while allowing more people to live at home while working in larger cities.Arnico Panday is an atmospheric scientist with a broad interest in sustainable development. He chairs the Development Planning and Policy Analysis department of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

Putting Nepal on the right track

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b950e9c7e80680e06f237jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="1160"/><figcaption>On 25 June, China inaugurated a 435km section of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail. The ‘bullet train’ will have a top speed of 160 km/h and bring Chengdu closer to the Nepal border when completed in 2025. Photos: Xinhuanet</figcaption></figure>The prospect of a trans-Himalayan connectivity has historically been a sensitive geopolitical issue since it concerns the region’s main rivals: China and India.Even back in 1961, when Nepal and China signed an agreement to build a highway linking Kathmandu to Lhasa there were misgivings about Beijing’s strategic motive. India and China were about to go to war along the Himalaya, and the Cold War was at its height. King Mahendra allayed those fears by famously saying: “Communism does not travel by taxi.”Sixty years later, similar suspicions have surfaced as China moves full steam ahead to connect its Tibetan Autonomous Region with new bullet train links that could ultimately be extended to the Nepal border, and even Kathmandu as a part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625121532408000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGsJC2izcsoXaRQZ1rXMJB8GHIFng">Belt Road Initiative (BRI).</a>On 25 June, China made a high-profile inauguration of a 435km section of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail (HSR). The ‘bullet train’ will have a top speed of 160 km/h and pass through 47 tunnels and 121 bridges along the Tsang Po (Brahmaputra) River.A feat of modern engineering, 90% of the HSR lies above 3,000 meters above sea level and will be a part of the new Sichuan-Tibet Railway. When connected to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-china-nepal-rail-corridor/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-china-nepal-rail-corridor/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEyws75pYHg2KSFVZyAFqc62CWxfQ">Kerung via Lhasa and Xigatse</a>, the train could put Lhasa within six hours distance and Chengdu within 19 hours from the Nepal border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95119c7e80680e06f238jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="998" height="1080"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95159c7e80680e06f239jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1796" height="1262"><figcaption>The Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail passes through 47 tunnels and 121 bridges along the Tsang Po (Brahmaputra) River.</figcaption></figure>While China makes rapid progress on rail connectivity, on the Nepal side of the border talk of a trans-Himalayan railway is only <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF-Q3gse9pq9mOu-izUhn7mWzSz0w">political tokenism</a>. Successive governments in Kathmandu have not even been able to maintain existing highways to Kodari and Rasuwagadi to international standards.But even the Chinese side seems to be daunted by the cost and sheer magnitude of a trans-Himalayan railway, especially its engineering challenge. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEh1zY0k6ZCTdCAY7EM8xjx1AN_3Q">Nepali Times had revealed in 2019</a> the content of a Chinese pre-feasibility study that proposed an alignment from Kerung to Kathmandu through a series of tunnels below Langtang National Park.Chinese engineers found the gradient from the Tibetan Plateau to the low valleys in Nepal to be too great, and there was also the need to avoid building a railway inside Nepal’s protected areas in Langtang, Rolwaling and Mt Everest regions.“Technically this will be one of the world’s toughest railways to construct,” said train engineer Paribesh Parajuli of Nepal’s Department of Railways who was educated in China, and a consultant for the study.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95199c7e80680e06f23ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1524" height="1204"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b951c9c7e80680e06f23bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1276" height="534">The Kerung-Kathmandu rail track will be 170km long, and a third of its length could tunnel below the Himalaya to reach the outskirts of Kathmandu. The study estimated the project to cost 38 billion yuan ($5.5 billion).A report in Railway Standard Design last week and quoted in the Hong Kong-based <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3138814/china-nepal-rail-link-may-go-through-protected-himalayan-park" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3138814/china-nepal-rail-link-may-go-through-protected-himalayan-park&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEuvsceBoKKGJ_LmtDwz1niCzI0Pw">South China Morning Post</a> confirmed that the proposed alignment would include 30km of tunnels beneath Langtang National Park.Liang Dong, a lead engineer with the China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group will be presenting his report to the Chinese and Nepal governments.He said the Himalayan Tunnel route from Kerung (Gyirong) to Kathmandu would be more challenging and costly, but other routes were rejected either because the gradients were too steep, they went through protected areas, or were geologically unstable and exposed to glacial lake outburst floods due to climate change.The possibility of trans-Himalayan connectivity was first mooted as far back as 1973 by Mao Zedong in a meeting with King Birendra in Beijing. Since then, China built the Qinghai-Tibet Railway connecting Lhasa to Xining, and is now working on the Sichuan-Tibet Railway to Chengdu and Kunming.The Qinghai-Tibet Railway was extended from Lhasa to Xigatse in 2014, and in three years those tracks will reach Kerung on the Nepal border, only 70km in a straight line north of Kathmandu.Even though it is just a secondary route in China’s ambitious BRI, Nepal could gain valuable access to Chinese seaports and trade centres, especially as relations with long-time trade partner India blow hot and cold. Construction on the HSR in Tibet has gone ahead despite the pandemic.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b951f9c7e80680e06f23cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="1124"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95229c7e80680e06f23djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="936">The possibility of extending this train track across the Himalaya to Kathmandu had captured the Nepali public’s imagination ever since Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-great-march/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-great-march/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHGibQBVN4D4t6d-EHleChPgkVuRg">K P Oli and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang</a> committed to exploring the project five years ago.The arrival of the railway line in Kerung possibly in three-year’s time will bring that dream closer to reality, but for that the Nepali side has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-china-agreements-are-stuck/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-china-agreements-are-stuck/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNvV9WjjfmrIZ2cXB6LDDdz-AvxA">to show more commitment</a> to the project.So far, Nepal’s action has been limited to participating in discussions and signing MoUs. Framework agreements were signed in 2017 for the Trans-Himalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Network, and President Bidya Devi Bhandari even attended a summit in 2019 of the BRI Forum.China had committed to financing Detailed Project Reports (DPR) for a 72-km rail line between Kathmandu and Rasuwagadi during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmkW3V3lGbvBXthCBsH4ktk9Trxw">President Xi Jinping’s visit in October 2019</a>, but since then, government planners have blamed the pandemic for delays in taking plans forward.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95259c7e80680e06f23ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1594" height="1060"><figcaption>Rasuwagadi on Nepal's border with China. Photo: Nabin Baral</figcaption></figure>In fact, no funding was sourced for DPRs, says Suresh Paudel, Deputy Secretary of Development Assistance Coordination and Quality Branch of the Ministry of Physical Infrastructure and Transportation.“China showed readiness in supporting detailed survey designs, but a budget has not been set so far,” Paudel says.Nepal has already lost time twiddling thumbs and waiting for China’s support, even while China aims to finish its Sichuan-Lhasa rail line by 2030.Even without the delays on the Nepal side, a Kathmandu-China connection will prove to be costly and difficult. Nepal has no railway infrastructure to speak of, and in any case would be unable to bear the financial cost of building a difficult and expensive tunnel across the Himalaya.

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No light at end of trans-Himalayan train tunnel

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba5639c7e80680e0736c1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="765" height="576"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>When Chinese social media posted photographs last month of engineers surveying the extension of the Tibet Railway, one of the images showed Mt Everest to the south looming over the plateau from the proposed route of the tracks.Suddenly, a promise that Mao Zedong had made to King Birendra back in 1973 to build a railway from Lhasa to Kathmandu looked like it was finally going to happen.Reports suggest the Chinese want to finish the Xiagtse Gyirong (Kerung) extension of the Tibet Railway by 2025 -- although its further extension across the Himalaya to Kathmandu is going to be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/">much more technically and financially challenging prospect</a>.The railway project was brought up again in 2008, and got a push after the Indian Blockade of 2015 forced the Nepal government to plan alternative trade routes. The trans-Himalayan train was discussed between Prime Minister K P Oli and President Xi Jinping in two meetings in Beijing and Kathmandu last year.In 2017, Nepal also signed a framework agreement on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of which the railway project is a part. A feasibility study for the train link from Kerung via Rasuwa to Kathmandu and onward to Pokhara and Lumbini was completed in 2018. But not much else has happened since – largely because of the COVID-19 crisis and political uncertainty in Kathmandu.Most observers agree that despite the lackadaisical attitude on the Nepal side, the Chinese are forging ahead with their BRI strategy in general, and the plan to extend the railway line from Xigatse to Gyirong with the survey of the route.When the first Belt and Road Forum was held in Beijing in May 2017 amidst much fanfare, the much-anticipated conference attracted more than 60 countries which wanted to partner with China on upgrading infrastructure and connectivity.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba5669c7e80680e0736c2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption>Trucks carrying imported Chinese goods cross over from Kerung to Rasuwagadi, the proposed route for the trans-Himalayan railway under China's Belt Road Initiative. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba5699c7e80680e0736c3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="826" height="680"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Three years later, more than $70 billion worth of project have been completed, while other projects to the tune of $100 billion are ongoing across the world. Despite criticism about lack of transparency, environmental impact and a Chinese ‘debt trap’, for Nepal the attraction is that projects like the trans-Himalayan railway could be an economic and geopolitical game-changer.Initiated by President Xi in 2013 and enshrined in China Constitution in 2017, the BRI is seen as a strategy to diversify China’s infrastructure investment abroad, and to expand its geostrategic space.The focus of the BRI has itself changed over the past four years to encompass not just infrastructure but also a ‘Digital Silk Road’ of connectivity. As more and more Chinese investors and tourists travel abroad, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-builds-digital-and-medical-silk-roads/">Digital Silk Road</a> is already functioning as a new payment gateway involving Chinese digital giants like WeChat and Alipay. By not making grand promotions and sticking to its domestic consumers, these companies have simply followed <a href="https://beltandroad.ventures/beltandroadblog/2018/7/8/where-the-chinese-go-alipay-and-wechat-pay-go">Chinese travelers wherever they go</a> (see map).Nepal initially banned Chinese digital payment giants WeChat and Alipay after loss of revenue from the increasing influx of Chinese visitors into the country.But the government decision to legalise both payment systems to benefit entrepreneurs and facilitate remittances from Nepalis shows China’s growing financial clout. As Nepal aims to lure more Chinese tourists in future, it is clear that Digital Silk Road will become an important artery for e-commerce.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba56b9c7e80680e0736c4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="645" height="427"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-builds-digital-and-medical-silk-roads/">Health Silk Road</a>’ is another <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/mapping-chinas-health-silk-road">rhetorical extension</a> of the BRI, and a response to the COVID-19 crisis to also boost China’s leadership in bio-technology and medicine. China has used this concept to rebrand the existing BRI by becoming a frontier in health technologies like using <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/5G-networks/Coronavirus-helps-China-pull-ahead-in-the-5G-race">5G drones to deliver medical assistance</a> in Beijing, and emergency COVID-19 assistance all over the world.China <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-27/China-to-enhance-cooperation-with-neighboring-countries-over-COVID-19-Stv2SvH9RK/index.html">recently held a joint conference</a> between Nepal, Pakistan and Afghanistan to combat COVID-19 together by building a new health network involving advanced digital connectivity and promoting it under the umbrella of the overall BRI mandate.Although in 2017, there was a flurry of activities in Chinese universities and think-tanks to discuss BRI initiatives, interest in it appears to have become somewhat subdued of late. Partly, it is the fallout of the pandemic, but even before the crisis hit BRI faced criticism in partner countries like Malaysia and Sri Lanka about risky, expensive projects that could be a ‘debt trap’. Large state-owned enterprises and banks started reconsidering how they viewed risks overseas, and advised a slowdown in investment promotion.In China itself, many <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fb7436d6-b006-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c?mc_cid=060a04b9b2&amp;mc_eid=f877bd4bdd">netizens were not happy</a> with their country’s eagerness to lend billions of dollars overseas when China itself has not fully lifted its own people from poverty. Managing public opinion in China is a sensitive topic for the leadership, and this could be another reason for large BRI projects not getting as much public exposure as before.However, even though within China the government may be keeping BRI in low profile for now, its activities and projects are up and running, though delayed somewhat this year by the global pandemic. The ongoing survey of the Xigatse-Gyirong railway is an example.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba56d9c7e80680e0736c5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="773" height="309"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>In Nepal, the public discourse on BRI has largely been associated with its geo-political risk, particularly because the MCC is seen as a countervailing American initiative in the global great game between the two world powers.China uses the BRI brand to project not just its strategic need for connectivity, but also as an extension of its soft power. However, in Nepal, the public perception of the BRI will be determined largely by its geopolitical content. For now, the BRI is equated almost solely as being synonymous with a future Gyirong-Kathmandu railway, and there is widespread public support for what many see as a catalyst for Nepal’s future development.But Nepalis may soon realise that the trans-Himalayan train may take decades to materialise, and in the meantime the BRI and its other initiatives are here to stay.Raunab Singh Khatri is a graduate student in Economics at the Yenching Academy of Peking University, Beijing.

BRI and trans-Himalayan connectivity

<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/8-9.jpg" data-elementor-open-lightbox="no"></a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66e89c7e80680e0599afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1163"/>Ten years ago, at the beginning of the last decade, Nepalis looked forward with optimism to a country with greater connectivity — at least a railway or two, smart cities, more energy sources and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/A-great-leap-forward,198" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a great leap forward</a> in infrastructure. The war had ended, a new constitution was being drafted and there was optimism about the future in 2010.Fast forward 10 years and many of those projects have not materialised, while even the ones nearing completion, like <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Melamchi</a>, Pokhara Airport, or the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/our-land-is-us-we-are-our-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu-Tarai Expressway</a>, are delayed. The 2015 earthquake and Blockade, as well as endemic corruption, were blamed. But it was mainly failure of political leadership.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains,</a> EditorialYet, many of these projects and others planned for the coming decade are more ambitious than ever. The government hopes to start on a new international airport in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nijgad</a>, upgrade Kathmandu airport, build two highway tunnels to Rasuwagadi, start a feasibility study on the Kerung-Kathmandu railway, expedite <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/planned-new-east-west-railroad-and-expressway-threaten-the-Chitwan-National-Park,1079" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the East-West Railway</a>, and add at least <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10,000MW of hydropower</a> to the grid in the next decade.Nepalis have got used to delays and disappointment, and there is a ‘we will believe it when we see it’ attitude about the megaprojects in the pipeline. A government that cannot even upgrade the Nagarkot road or finish the 5km stretch from Chabahil to Gokarna, it is felt, has no right promising a $6billion new airport by clearing native forest.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An energy windfall for Nepal</a>, Kushal GurungEarlier this year, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada promised that the government would complete the feasibility study of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung-Kathmandu railway</a> and begin construction by 2022. This came without a definite budget or financial modality, still the Nepali engineer on the project, Paribesh Parajuli says it will happen within the coming decade.“The detailed project report and feasibility study for the Kerung-Kathmandu Railway will take more than two years but we are hopeful that it will be done within the given timeframe,” Parajuli told Nepali Times. “If everything goes as planned, the railway should be completed within nine years of the start of construction.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> EditorialAnother faraway project is the 945km East-West Railway. To span 24 Tarai districts from Mechi to Mahakali, it is expected to be completed by the middle of the coming decade. In fact, 30km of the track-bed from Bardibas to Nijgad is scheduled to be finished next year. This line will connect with the 69km Janakpur-Jayanagar-Kurtha line that will start operating in March 2020. Also being surveyed is the <a href="nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-polls/do-you-think-kathmandu-raxaul-rail-will-ever-be-built/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raxaul-Kathmandu Railway</a>.Out of the 22 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national pride projects</a>, 17 are scheduled for completion in the next 5 years, according to the National Planning Commission's Approach Paper. Sushil Bhatta of the NPC says: “The government is focusing on giving priority to certain projects, making sure that resources are effectively and efficiently utilised in order to meet the targets that have been outlined.”Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s,</a> Sewa Bhattarai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade,</a> Sonia AwaleIn the next five-year periodic plan, the government is prioritising completion of projects that have already begun, allocating resources on the basis of the progress achieved and the significance of the projects to the economy.Bhatta says: “We want to give priority to result-oriented national pride projects and those that help enhance economic growth.”The government is determined to complete Nijgad International Airport in the coming decade despite strong protests from environmental activists and criticism that it is too grandiose. Bhairawa and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Pokhara-waits-for-take-off,4136" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara</a> airports will be operational in 2020 and 2021, but whether they will act as alternative airports and reduce congestion in Kathmandu is debatable.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Does Nepal need a 4th international airport?,</a> Om Astha RaiDuring this year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Investment Summit</a> there were numerous proposals for smart cities in Hetauda — integrated urban development programs that were built on digital frameworks, improved technology, energy-efficient apartments, electric vehicle charging stations and bus rapid transit.Between 2020-2030 there will also be explosive growth in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-telecom-or-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telecommunication sector</a> with the introduction of 4G and 5G networks. Anand Khanal at the Nepal Telecommunications Authourity says, “In the next decade, we will see blanket coverage of mobile broadband in the country. The infrastructure will be established so that 100% of the public will have access to the internet and broadband service. “Nepal hopes to become a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/muddy-road-middle-income,928" target="_blank" rel="noopener">middle-income country by 2030</a>, and the country needs to invest more than $1billion annually on infrastructure development to reach this goal.Bhatta says: “To achieve our 5-year goals and even 25-year goals, we need to streamline our projects, strategically invest in those projects and push for a paradigm shift in the way Nepal manages development.”Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Calendar of economic change</a>, Om Astha Rai

Nepal in 2030

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f899c7e80680e056e35jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"/><figcaption>All photos: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Nepali officials have prepared a wish-list of 11 projects for Chinese President Xi Jinping when he makes a state visit to Kathmandu this weekend, during which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a> is said to preparing to announce a ‘Big Surprise’.Parts of Kathmandu which President Xi will travel through during his visit on 12-13 October have got a hurried face-lift with streets being painted and swept, ungainly overhead wires bundled, and sidewalks festooned with flags and portraits of the leaders of the two countries.Nepal’s 11-point agenda for Xi Jinping include mainly infrastructure projects like new highways from Kathmandu to multiple points on the Chinese border, including to Rasuwa. But the surprise gift is expected to be an announcement on the extension of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tibet Railway from Kerung to Kathmandu</a>.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What China really wants, Editorial</a>Prime Minister KP Oli and Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali held a four-hour discussion with former prime ministers and officials in Baluwatar on Thursday during which they advised the government not to sell out the national interest to Beijing, and not to fall into a Chinese ‘debt trap’.The spokesman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Narayan Kaji Shrestha later explained that the primary agenda of the visit will be ‘connectivity’ with new crossborder roads in Kimathanka in eastern Nepal, the Korala border point in Mustang, repairs of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kodari</a> and Rasuwa highways that were destroyed in <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the 2015 earthquake. </a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f8d9c7e80680e056e36jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f919c7e80680e056e37jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730">However, officials said the really important announcement during the visit was going to be the 70km extension of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xigatse-Kerung railway line</a> under the Himalaya through a series of tunnels to Kathmandu. The Chinese side is said to be prepared to offer 70% of the project cost, with Rs3 billion being Nepal’s share.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral trains</a>, EditorialThe new railway and roads will fall under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is President Xi’s pet project to improve intercontinental land connectivity between China and Central Asia and on to Europe.Shrestha revealed that the primary features of the draft agreement with China could include:<ul style="font-weight: 400;"><li>Upgrading the Rasuwagadi checkpoint and road to Kathmandu.</li> <li>Repairs at the Tatopani checkpoint and road to Kathmandu.</li> <li>Construction of the Tokha-Chahare Tunnel.</li> <li>Setting up of the Madan Bhandari University.</li> <li>The Kosi Corridor highway to Kimathanka</li> <li>The Kali Gandaki Corridor to Korala</li> <li>Improvement in the Karnali Corridor to Hilsa</li></ul>Although some of these proposals are not new, the whole package if approved will represent a dramatic increase in China’s involvement in infrastructure projects in Nepal. Prime Minister Oli has made Xi’s state visit a prestige issue, which he hopes will bolster his party’s sagging public support – even if some of the projects, like the railway, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may still be decades away</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f949c7e80680e056e38jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296">Chinese officials had taken part in the Nepal Investment Summit in April and studied proposals from the Nepali side for the road and railways. President Bidya Devi Bhandari had also broached the subjects of the trans-Himalayan railway during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">her visit to China earlier this year</a>.Chinese and Nepali engineers have already discussed a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on the railway alignment which is said to prefer a tunnel under Langtang National Park rather than following the Bhote Kosi river from the border.The Americans have pointedly warned Nepal not to fall under the Chinese ‘debt trap’ like other countries in Africa and Sri Lanka. Washington has offered its own $500 million alternative connectivity project under the Millennium Challenge Corporation for highways and transmission lines, however this project is stuck because of US insistence that Nepal clear it with India first.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141152/636a5f979c7e80680e056e39jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1944" height="1296">Nepal has been trying to steer a careful <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">geo-political balance between China and the United States on the one hand, and with India on the other</a>. Foreign Minister Gyawali has gone to great lengths after a meeting with US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo last year to deny that Nepal is a member of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.China has been pushing Nepal to sign an extradition treaty somewhat like the one India has signed with Nepal and like the one it tried to push in Hong Kong. Such an agreement would affect the estimate 15,000 Tibetan exiles and refugees in Nepal. NCP Spokesman Shrestha admitted the subject was on the agenda for bilateral talks during the Xi visit, but that it would not be passed this time.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the west</a>, Bhairaja Pandey<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yam between three boulders</a>, EditorialThis is the first state visit by a Chinese President to Nepal after Jing Zemin’s visit in 1996, and the emphasis on ‘connectivity’ reflects Kathmandu’s desire to find alternative trans-Himalayan trade routes after <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India’s five-month blockade of its southern border in 2015</a> which wrecked the country’s economy.India has also been increasing its investments in hydropower and other infrastructure in Nepal, and recently handed over a 36km oil pipeline from the border to Amlekhganj to facilitate petroleum imports from India.Although Indian officials and media periodically voice suspicions about Chinese inroads into Nepal, Beijing is said to be averse to damaging its increasing trade ties with India over Nepal. Hence, even Xi Jinping’s itinerary this time to make his state visit to Kathmandu after his informal meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi near Chennai in southern India carries a message.

What is Xi Jinping’s ‘Big Surprise’?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e399c7e80680e04fca3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>TRAIN A COMIN': Kerung (Gyirong) used to be a staging post during the 19th century Nepal-Tibet wars.</figcaption></figure>Tashi Sherpa runs the only teashop in Rasuwa Gadi on the Nepal side of the border, 170km north of  Kathmandu. Nearby, dozens of trucks carrying imported Chinese goods cross the Bhote Kosi into Nepal.Sherpa has heard that a railroad to Kathmandu is also planned, but she will only believe it when she sees it. “Dream train,” she calls it.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29408&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains</a>, Editorial But what Tashi Sherpa does not know is that a feasibility study conducted last year has proposed a rail route under the mountains instead of along the river, thus  bypassing Rasuwa Gadi altogether. People along the highway may not even see the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Nepal-India-China-rail,3092" target="_blank" rel="noopener">train</a> because most of the track will be in tunnels drilled beneath Langtang, Gosiankunda and Shivapuri to Tokha near Kathmandu.Truck driver Balaram Rimal sips tea at Sherpa’s shop as he waits to cross into China. He says: “All this talk of trains is nonsense. First they should fix this scary road.”The railway forms part of China’s Belt Road Initiative and will be an extension of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Qinghai-Tibet Railway</a> from Xigatse to Kerung and on to Kathmandu. However, crossing the Himalaya through a series of long tunnels will not just be an engineering feat, but will cost at least $5.5 billion.The Chinese have built an imposing 9-storey building at the border that looks like a shopping mall and houses a well-equipped customs and immigration office. The Nepal side is a tin shed flying a forlorn Nepali flag. <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The 2015 earthquake destroyed the Nepal border post,</a> and its reconstruction has been delayed due to a dispute with the contractor.Finjo Lopchan runs Potala Guest House near the border, and sums it all up: “How can a country that can’t even put up a building, drill a train tunnel through the mountains? My head spins when people talk about railways. Shameless government.”

Dream train

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e709c7e80680e04fcb6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Dozens of trucks carrying imported Chinese goods cross the Bhote Kosi into Nepal this week. The Nepali border town of Rasuwa Gadi (pictured below) on the Bhote Kosi river. Photos: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e749c7e80680e04fcb7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933">Till not too long ago, a trans-Himalayan railway sounded like science fiction. Now, with the proposed 100km long tunnel under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-reincarnation-of-a-holy-valley/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Langtang National park</a>, it sounds even more futuristic.The rapid strides China has taken in extending its national railway network makes drilling under the world’s highest mountains seem no longer technically impossible, but is it economically viable?Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29395&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dream Train</a>, Ramesh Bhushal <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29408&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains</a>, Editorial A pre-feasibility study of a railway into Nepal from Tibet carried out by a Chinese team in 2018 suggests that it would be an engineering feat and very expensive, but not an impossible task.“Technically this will be one of the world’s toughest railways to construct,” says Paribesh Parajuli, the only train engineer at Nepal’s Department of Railways, who was educated in China and is a consultant for the study.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e779c7e80680e04fcb8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="826" height="680"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Despite Nepali politicians making wild promises about the imminent arrival of a Tibet train and ensuing public anticipation, because of the technical and cost factors the Chinese have sought to dampen some of the enthusiasm.Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Tibet Train</a>, Om Astha RaiThe feasibility study has not yet been made public, but is said to list ‘six extremes’ that will be challenging: topography, weather, hydrology, tectonics, and cost.And despite speculation that the railway alignment will follow the Bhote Kosi River across the Himalaya to Nuwakot, the study actually lays out a much more adventurous course under Langtang National Park, below Gosainkunda and Shivapuri National Park to enter Kathmandu Valley at Tokha. Stations will be located at bridge points where the tunnels emerge at Langtang Khola and Pati Bhanjyang.The gradient required to descend from 4,000m on the Tibetan Plateau to 1,400m above Kathmandu is so steep that engineers have proposed drilling through the mountains with 98% of the tracks on the Nepal side inside tunnels.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bCrriCNMqoSays Parajuli: “If the railroad follows the proposed tunnel route under the mountains, the towns along the existing highway to Rasuwa will not even be seeing trains.”Although drilling under the mountains will minimise environmental impact in two national parks, the tunnels will traverse the Main Central Thrust faultline of the Himalaya. Mitigating earthquake risk will push the total cost even higher than a normal tunnel project.Preliminary estimates put the cost of just the 170km Kerung to Kathmandu section of the railway at 38 billion yuan ($5.5 billion). Even though only 30% of the length from Menbu to Kathmandu is in Nepal, it will account for almost half the cost of the project because of the required tunneling.Despite these challenges, Nepal’s railway dream moved closer to reality after the project was listed as one of the 64 to be considered under China’s BRI during the <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11212--Green-Belt-and-Road-in-the-spotlight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second Belt and Road Forum</a> in Beijing in April.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e7a9c7e80680e04fcb9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e7d9c7e80680e04fcbajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Nepal is now seeking a grant from China to construct the railway, but Beijing is <a href="https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/nepal-china-railway-project-will-be-executed-chinese-ambassador-to-nepal-hou-yanqi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reticent</a>, hence recent comments by Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi urging Nepalis not to jump the gun.The Nepal government has not allocated any money for the Tibet railway in this year’s budget. But officials at <a href="http://www.mopit.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s Infrastructure and Transport</a> ministry say just a detailed engineering study for the Kerung-Kathmandu section of the railway will cost an <a href="https://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/printedition/news/2019-03-19/rs-35b-and-two-years-cost-of-detailed-project-report-of-kathmandu-kerung-rail.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimated </a>five times the Nepal’s total railway budget for next year.Even so, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada seems upbeat. He has even announced the date of the start of construction: “We will complete the detailed project report and feasibility study and start construction work on the Kerung-Kathmandu railway in the next two years.”The Chinese do not seem to be in such a rush. The Qinghai-Tibet railway reached Xigatse in Tibet in 2014. At the pace of construction, it was  scheduled to arrive on the border in Kerung by 2020, but the Chinese have reportedly pushed that back to 2025.Both the Chinese and Nepal governments have denied that loan financing for the project will push Nepal into a debt trap, as the Americans have been warning.“The main thing is how projects are selected, whether that is done on the possible rate of return, and the pay back plan,” says Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX-C2_E-AQMWhile the minister could not answer questions about what Nepal would export to China by train, Prime Minister K P Oli once speculated it could be mineral water, for which he was widely ridiculed. Mineral water is already a multi-billion dollar <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2015/10/29/chinas-bottled-water-industry-to-exploit-asias-water-tower-4/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">industry in Tibet</a>, so it would be like coals to Newcastle.Economic analysts say the railway makes sense only if Nepal can fill the wagons with its goods for the return trip. While imports from China increased by about 40% in 2018, exports from Nepal to China fell by 30%, with the country’s trade deficit reaching about US$12 billion last year – equal to nearly half of the country’s total GDP.Ambassador Hou has tried to allay fears. “The BRI is not a ‘debt trap’ that some countries may fall into, but an ‘economic pie’ that benefits the local population,” she wrote in a recent <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/new-era-new-opportunities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opinion piece</a> in the Nagarik newspaper.The real question is not just who will pay for the railway, but also whether it will pay for itself. The tunnel alignment will push up costs, and because it misses all major urban areas along the way like Trisuli and Syabrubesi, it is unlikely to benefit local populations.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLURhJkDeVcNarayan Das Dongol, 76, plays with his granddaughter in Tokha village on the northern rim of Kathmandu Valley. His house will be near the proposed terminal of the Kerung-Kathmandu railway, and he has heard rumours about a train coming. There is still confusion about the exact route the tracks will take, but land prices here have already soared six-fold to Rs3 million for a 32 sq m patch in anticipation.In Bidur of Nuwakot, Mayor Sanju Pandit insists the train should go through his town, adding: “I have heard that the railway will cross our town, but we have not been consulted or informed about it at all.”One worry is that regular cargo trains between China and Nepal will increase wildlife trafficking not just of endangered species from Nepal, but also India. Nepal would be even more of a transit for contraband like tiger skins, rhinos horns, pangolins, sandalwood.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e819c7e80680e04fcbbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>On the Nepal side, there are zero preparations in place for the Tibet railroad, but even the proposed east-west Tarai railway does not seem to be going anywhere. In the decade since it was set up, Nepal’s Department of Railways has yet to hire a fulltime railway engineer.The new 34km railway from Bihar to Nepal is supposed to start operations next month with a hired train and driver from India. But you cannot fault Nepal for dreaming big: the government plans to construct 4,000km of railways in the next two decades.This article was originally published by <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/06/18/china-nepal-railway-fantasy-or-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e849c7e80680e04fcbcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e879c7e80680e04fcbdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Timeline: Nepal’s BRI railway2017 – Nepal and China sign MoU on the BRI in Beijing.2018 – Nepal forms two committees headed by the foreign secretary and finance secretary to propose projects for China to fund under BRI.2018 – Nepal’s prime minister, K.P Oli, visits China and signs on 14 projects including in cooperation in railways.2018 – Pre-feasibility study for the Kerung- Kathmandu rail by a Chinese team.2019 – The Nepal-China railway listed as part of the Trans-Himalayan connectivity network at the second BRI Forum in Beijing in April.2019 – In budget speech, government declares construction will start in two years without allocating appropriate budget for a detailed study.

Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?

<figure><img width="1400" height="920" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e509c7e80680e04fcabjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>The trans-Himalayan railroad has been in the news lately. And like everything else in Nepal, it is difficult to separate hot air from a cool breeze. The Chinese cannot hide their irritation anymore about Nepal’s politicians day-dreaming. Ambassador Hou Yanqi was as blunt as a diplomat can be at a recent interaction in which she said (we paraphrase): “Not so fast.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29395&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dream Train</a>, Ramesh BhushalThe extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to Nyalam and Kerung, then onwards to Kathmandu, Lumbini and the Indian border constitutes a part of Beijing’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15892#.XRsdKz8za70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan</a>. But laying train tracks on the rugged terrain of the Tibetan Plateau has been a daunting challenge even for the Chinese.After the Lhasa line was connected to Xigatse and beyond, it was expected to reach <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung</a> on the Nepal border by the next year, but now it looks like it will be pushed back five more years. Yet Nepal’s hyperbolic politicians talk about it as if the locomotives will be chugging in by next Dasain.The railway to Nepal was listed as one of the 64 Belt Road Initiative (BRI) projects at the second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in April. The ambitious BRI aims to improve China’s overland connectivity to countries across its western border in Central Asia and beyond to even Europe. The Nepal link is not directly on the main line, but part of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/12/nepal-joins-new-silk-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sub-Silk Road</a> that could, in the future, offer an alternative to two-way trade between China and India, which today follows a maritime route through the Strait of Malacca.China is India’s largest source of imports, and it is in Beijing’s geostrategic interest to find land alternatives to choke points on its sea routes to the Indian Ocean. Two-way trade between India and China is now nearly $100 billion a year and a stable land corridor would be in both the countries’ interest. Besides that, China wants to integrate its southwestern regions of Tibet and Xinjiang with central and southern Asia.  But what does Nepal get out of the proposed rail link? First of all, theoretically, we can have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cheap and reliable alternative access</a> to sea ports. That Nepal needs this trade bypass is a no-brainer considering the five-month Indian Blockade of our southern border in 2015. Despite its initial cost, train travel is cheaper and environmentally much cleaner. A railway track through the mountains could interlink trade and tourist travel between the two countries, and be a catalyst for other train lines within Nepal. Nepal’s politicians, including Prime Minister K P Oli, came to power riding the nationalist wave after the Blockade, and promised better access to the north. But one just has to see the slow progress of the road on our side of the Rasuwa border today to realise that it was all talk. Whatever progress there has been in upgrading the checkpoints in Rasuwa and <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kodari</a>, or the dry port in Larcha, are being built by China in our territory.The biggest uncertainty about the trans-Himalayan railroad is who is going to pay for it, and if it will pay for itself. The 170km stretch from Kerung to Kathmandu will cost at least $5.5 billion. It is unlikely the Chinese will just gift the railroad, and a loan could be a debt trap. Unless Nepal’s exports to China rise dramatically, this railway will not make much economic sense.Nepal’s trade deficit with China is expected to grow to $15 billion this year, as imports rose by 40% and exports fell by 30%. A cargo train makes sense if we can use the wagons to send goods back to China, not just to buy more.China used its comparative advantage in the past to produce labour-intensive goods which it exported worldwide to buy knowhow. Now, China has attained an income level where some of those goods can be produced more cheaply elsewhere: like Nepal. In the 1990s, tax rebates attracted multinationals to set up manufacturing bases in Nepal for export to India. We do not have to reinvent the wheel.Greater connectivity between India and China through Nepal, however, could open a new trans-Himalayan trade corridor which can offer Nepal another chance to be a manufacturing base for specialised products to be sold to both our giant neighbours. But for that, we need a strategic vision and pragmatic policies. Nepal’s strategy should be to serve as a land bridge between India and China and get these two giant locomotives to pull in the same direction.10 years ago this weekNepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#458 of 3-9 July 2009</a> dealt with the Constitution deadline being only 11 months away, and the political parties paralysed by wrangling. Our<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16083#.XR7YWeszaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> editorial</a> blamed the fecklessness of the democratic parties and the Maoists wanting to go it alone:‘D Day for the completion of the new Constitution is now only 11 months away. The Constituent Assembly’s self-imposed deadline has been pushed back over and over again. Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal said after his Politburo meeting this week that his party will lead a national government. How that will be possible considering the non-Maoist parties are on the other side is difficult to imagine. Maybe the strategy is to split the big parties, but then domestic and international geo-politics are both against them. What the Maoists couldn’t achieve with armed struggle and elections, they will now try to do by mobilising a mass movement on the streets.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e539c7e80680e04fcacjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1242"></a>

TRILATERAL TRAINS

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41189c7e80680e04a65ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1051"/><figcaption>THE 6TH EXTINCTION: This orchid with medicinal properties, Dactylorhiza hatagirea, (Panchaule) is an endangered species.</figcaption></figure>Nepal is situated at the crossroads of four eco-biological domains to the north, south, east and west. The country’s great altitudinal range endows it with biodiversity that is the richest in the world in such a small area.Nepal is also the most densely inhabited mountain country in the world, and is squeezed between two of the planet’s most populous nations. Now, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> has been added to the threats to the endangered life forms that inhabit Nepal’s fragile ecosystems.The United Nations released an apocalyptic report in Paris last week warning that one million animal and plant species across the planet are on the verge of extinction. The <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment</a> concluded that besides charismatic mammals, insects, fish and microorganisms, 75% of crops will vanish.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a411b9c7e80680e04a65bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="840"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Here in Nepal, despite successes in nature conservation, species are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-conservation-nepal-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threatened by new infrastructure projects</a> like the proposed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nijgad Airport</a> and the East-West Railway, which are expected to wipe out 200,000ha of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forests</a>. Human encroachment of natural habitats, rampant pesticide use, poisoning of rivers and wildlife trafficking were bad enough, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> now adds a whole new dimension to the threat.“In Nepal, we have usually focussed on big mammals. Those are important but the attention should shift to other species that are vital to maintain the ecological balance,” explains naturalist Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha. Indeed, the country may be losing insects and reptile species that have not even been discovered yet.For example, there has been little study of the impact of wetland destruction and the pollution of water bodies on insects and amphibians. A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/project-dragonfly/">new dragonfly species</a> that was discovered above Pokhara’s Phewa Lake last year may become extinct since its habitat is so degraded. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-uds-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/what-is-the-buzz&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiCmp6Y_J_iAhUX7HMBHQ8GC4cQFjAAegQIAxAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw2E2ZhyyvROj1LguNUAI8MO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bee populations have been declining</a> at an alarming rate due to the spread of pesticides, leading to a loss of farm productivity. The disappearance of insects and aquatic fauna has had a cascade effect on indigenous and migratory birds wintering in Nepal.“There is a crucial need of public awareness about <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.15px;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/protecting-the-pangolin,3597" target="_blank" rel="noopener">less well-known species</a> — they may have important roles for the ecosystem that we don’t even know about yet,” says Sagar Dahal of the Small Mammal Conservation and Research Foundation.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a411e9c7e80680e04a65cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="558" height="658">Extreme weather caused by global warming has also led to a serious water shortage across Nepal, which in turn is profoundly affecting wildlife, medicinal plants, rare orchids and the insects that depend on them.The last major mass extinction on Earth 65 million years ago wiped out not only dinosaurs, but 75% of all species. It took the planet 10 million years to recover. But unlike previous extinctions that were caused by natural catastrophes, this time human activity is the cause.The loss of biodiversity and destruction of nature and its impact cited in the IBPES report are felt more acutely in Nepal due to the vulnerability of the Himalaya to climate change, deforestation, pollution and poaching.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41209c7e80680e04a65djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Global environmental degradation will affect countries like Nepal more because of our sensitive topography,” writes IBPES researcher from Nepal, Uttam Babu Shrestha in a Kantipur op-ed this week. “Proposed large infrastructure projects will have lasting negative impacts on the environment.”Nepal has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-a-jungle-out-there/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">successful in curbing domestic poaching</a>, but it is a major transit point for wildlife contraband en route to China. The presence of smugglers means the country needs to be vigilant about a revival in poaching. It is a conduit for tiger and leopard pelts, rhino horns and other endangered species. Earlier this year, 200kg of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-pangolins-from-being-eaten-to-extinction/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pangolin</a> scales bound for China were found at Kathmandu airport.“Nepal may be landlocked in every other aspect but it is land-linked when it comes to smuggling,” Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha told Nepali Times.The good news is that Nepal’s conservationists, planners and the government know what the problems are, as well as the solutions. The country also has vast experience in balancing nature conservation with meeting human needs. It just needs a long-term strategy and all stakeholders to work towards protecting our abundant biodiversity.

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