The most emblematic case from Nepal’s armed conflict is of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/she-would-have-been-33-this-year" target="_blank">Maina Sunar</a>, but it quietly slipped away from the Supreme Court docket last week.&nbsp; On 23 May the presiding judges said they could not hear the case because of a conflict of interest. It has been three years since the Supreme Court has continuously adjourned <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15409" target="_blank">Maina Sunar</a>’s case hearings.&nbsp; Contrast this to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/who-is-resham-chaudhary" target="_blank">Resham Chaudhary</a>, whose crime occurred 11 years after <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/17/remembering-maina/" target="_blank">Sunar</a> was killed in 2004. His case was processed by the District Court, High Court, Supreme Court and he was released from prison on a presidential pardon.&nbsp; Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary both involve criminal cases against a backdrop of political armed struggle, and involve the security forces. They raise similar legal questions such as: What degree of murder was committed? Who were the commanders that ordered them, what was their responsibility?&nbsp; &nbsp;Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/who-is-resham-chaudhary">Who is Resham Chaudhary...</a>, Shristi Karki One marked difference in the cases is that in Maina Sunar’s case the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2013/02/16/still-waiting/" target="_blank">perpetrator was the Nepal Army</a>, whereas in Resham Chaudhary’s case members of the security forces were victims. The contrast of how these two cases moved through the courts exposes some bigger concerns in procedures followed and decisions made in criminal trials in Nepal.&nbsp; There has been a consistent stream of analysis that pins the delays in cases processing through the court system to human resource deficit. particularly the failure to appoint judges. This is only one part of the problem. &nbsp; Cases are listed for hearing by the court’s administrative staff. Each week all courts produce a list of cases that will appear before the judges called the ‘Weekly Cause List’.&nbsp; For example, the Supreme Court releases a list of around 200 cases to be presented before judges that week. The cases are listed in order of priority meaning that realistically only the first 90 cases have a chance of being heard that week. The rest are adjourned. These cases need not be listed in the next week’s cause list but rather are likely to be listed after at least a month.&nbsp; Court administrative staff, as opposed to judges, use their discretion to sequence cases on the weekly cause list. The Chief Justice and administrative heads of the courts supervise the weekly lists and can change the order of cases.&nbsp; Whilst there are laws providing guidance on how to prioritise cases on the list such as processing cases affecting women, children, prisoners and elderly quickly, it is largely discretionary. Decision making remains mostly opaque at all levels.&nbsp; Moreover, it is common understanding amongst lawyers that this lack of transparency in drawing up cause lists opens up room for undue political influence and corruption by administrative staff in either moving up cases or pushing them down the list. Cases can be essentially buried through this function of procedural decision making by administrators.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603130652_2a8fb07731cbdd5da02da1cb329ea210e014973b09efd3c1e825147a26c179b2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20230603130652_2a8fb07731cbdd5da02da1cb329ea210e014973b09efd3c1e825147a26c179b2" data-rendition-name="original" width="400" height="406" loading="lazy" alt="Maina Sunwar"> <figcaption>Maina Sunar, who was killed in detention at Nepal Army barracks in 2004.</figcaption> </figure>  Maina Sunar’s case has been in the courts since 2007. The military has challenged the legitimacy of civilian courts to hear this case after it conducted its own court martial. This petition has lingered at the Supreme Court which in turn has adjourned this hearing five times since 2019. The reason being that the case was listed too far down the order in the cause list.&nbsp; &nbsp;In contrast, Resham Chaudhary’s case was processed in about six years. The speed at which the two cases have moved through the courts raises questions about what legal and non-legal factors affected the court administrator’s decision-making in listing these cases.&nbsp; In Maina Sunar’s case decision, the Patan High Court and Kavre District Court established that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=941" target="_blank">military personnel Amit Pun and Sunil Adhikari under the command of Bobby Khatri</a> abducted, tortured, killed and disappeared 15 year old Maina inside the Panchkhal barracks.&nbsp; The judges acknowledge the torture that led to the death of Sunar is a violation of international human rights law deserving of a life sentence. However, in a remarkable display of sympathy towards the military, the judges state that a life sentence would be excessive for the perpetrators who were working under extraordinary pressures of the armed conflict.&nbsp; The life sentence was lowered to five years of imprisonment by both courts, the same punishment for the commanding officer Bobby Khatri and his subordinate officers. International human rights law is clear on its absolute prohibition against torture under all circumstance and stipulates the duty of the state to safeguard children during an armed conflict.&nbsp; A sentence mitigation, after citing Nepal’s obligation to follow these laws in the judgment, is a baffling leap in legal logic. No military personnel has yet served this sentence.&nbsp; High Courts in Nepal should be persuaded (as opposed to bound) by previous rulings in similar cases as a matter of legal principle. It is interesting that the political consideration that mitigated sentences for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/mother-fights-for-justice-Devi-Sunar,2837" target="_blank">military personnel in Maina Sunar’s case</a> are summarily dismissed in Resham Chaudhary’s case judgment.&nbsp; After all, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tikapur-s-protracted-trauma" target="_blank">2015 killings in Tikapur</a>, for which Resham Chaudhary was handed a life sentence, is termed a political struggle (as opposed to a criminal act) by the Tharu community. The judges are within their rights to declare an incident a criminal act as opposed to a political act.&nbsp; However, judges either needed to examine legal parameters of political armed struggle vis-a-vis existing criteria under international laws such as whether the group has a structure, organisation or military command. Or, they needed to propose a set of legal criteria for political acts that fit the Nepali context which can be used for subsequent cases before the court. This legal engagement to separate a criminal act from a political act is significantly underdeveloped in Resham Chaudhary’s case judgment.&nbsp; The legal value of the Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary case was immense. They presented an opportunity for Nepal’s Supreme Court to deliberate and set legal standards on some pertinent legal questions relating to political movements that would assist future cases.&nbsp; These include questions like separating sporadic criminal uprisings from political violence, establishing the gravity of death by torture, defining the parameters of command responsibility in security forces and political groups amongst others.&nbsp; However as Maina Sunar’s case stalls and Resham Chaudhary’s presidential pardon potentially lifts the Supreme Court’s obligation to issue a full length decision, the engagement with legal elements of justice remain compromised.&nbsp; Aastha Dahal is a Kathmandu-based lawyer with a PhD in criminology from the University of Cambridge.

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Comparing Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary cases

Background Nepal’s new Constitution had just been endorsed by the Constituent Assembly, but Madhesi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/un-centralising-the-federal-structure">activists</a> were not happy and there was violence in Tarai cities. Following the promulgation of the Constitution in 2015, the Tharuhat Struggle Committee (TSC) rejected the seven-province federalism model that placed Kailali and Kanchanpur in Far-west Province, demanding greater autonomy for their indigenous group in a separate Tharuhat Province.&nbsp; However, the Akhanda Sudur Paschim movement that had been demanding a separate Far-western state had been celebrating the passing of the new Constitution, leading to a confrontation between the two organisations.&nbsp; On 24 August 2015, armed supporters of the TSC <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/08/24/kailali-carnage/">confronted police in Tikapur</a> of Kailali district. Madhesi activists were reported to have instigated the indigenous Tharu community to join the Madhes Movement.&nbsp; Eight police officers were killed: lynched, knifed, or burnt alive. A two-year-old baby was also shot. Police filed charges in the Kailali District Court against 58 suspects, naming Resham Chaudhary, the district coordinator of the Tharuhat Struggle Committee, as the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/01/22/tikapur-finding/">mastermind behind the attacks</a>. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tikapur-s-protracted-trauma">Tikapur’s protracted trauma</a>, Tufan Neupane  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230529120548_0c6976eb2e6b43f40a0dfcc835c28d72cab53f804840bf9c0900b34a2b2ba19a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230529120548_0c6976eb2e6b43f40a0dfcc835c28d72cab53f804840bf9c0900b34a2b2ba19a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1064" loading="lazy" alt="Resham Chaudhary"> <figcaption>Resham Chaudhary with wife Ranjita Shrestha, who is the Minister of Land Management and the chair of the Nagarik Unmukti Party.</figcaption> </figure>  What did the courts do? While still on the run, Resham Chaudhary ran for elections in 2017 as Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) and was elected to Parliament from Kailali-1. &nbsp; As MP, he turned himself in to police in February 2018, but was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment along with 11 others by the Kailali District Court and the High Court in 2019. On 17 May this year, the Supreme Court upheld the verdict of the two lower courts.&nbsp; Why was he released? On Nepal’s Republic Day on Monday, President Ram Chandra Paudel included Resham Chaudhary in his amnesty list on recommendation of the coalition government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.&nbsp; Article 276 of Nepal’s constitution stipulates that the President may, in accordance with the law, grant pardons, suspend, commute or remit any sentence passed by any Court, judicial or quasi-judicial body or administrative authority or body. From behind bars, Chaudhary last year got his wife Ranjita Shrestha to form the Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP). Shrestha herself was elected to Parliament in the 2022 federal elections, and is Minister of Land Management, Cooperatives and Poverty Alleviation. But she had not participated in Cabinet meetings.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/displacement-and-defiance/">Displacement and defiance</a>, Tom Robertson  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230529120548_eb2eee37cde4dc6626f7765be55322637668e28f6cdd1615da9d09ffac72f4b6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20230529120548_eb2eee37cde4dc6626f7765be55322637668e28f6cdd1615da9d09ffac72f4b6" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Resham Chaudhary"> </figure>  Although the NUP is a part of Prime Minister Dahal’s coalition government, it had made <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/government-of-the-leaders-for-the-leaders-by-the-leaders">Chaudhary’s release a primary agenda</a>, threatening to pull out of the coalition if that demand was not fulfilled.&nbsp; The coalition was looking fragile after the exit of the independent RSP, the fourth largest party in Parliament with i21 members.&nbsp; Chaudhary’s pardon will now ensure the the NUP remains in the coalition for the time being. But this is bound to have a ripple effect on other smaller parties in the coalition to use similar bargaining tactics to gain political leverage. The Dahal-led coalition government was pushing for Chaudhary’s inclusion in the President’s Republic Day amnesty list which also includes 482 others serving prison terms. Besides Chaudhary, 19 prisoners were also pardoned. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/atrocities-against-tharu-expressed-in-art/">Atrocities against Tharu expressed in art</a>, Sakina Abidi  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230529120548_572f971d19c8bd2edf1918dc64853f00ad7004673c83e694b54015770e133850.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20230529120548_572f971d19c8bd2edf1918dc64853f00ad7004673c83e694b54015770e133850" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1064" loading="lazy" alt="Resham Chaudhary NT"> </figure>  What is the fallout? The fallout of Resham Chaudhary’s release is sharply divided. Activists and members of the Tharu community, who have long demanded that the Tikapur protests be treated as a political movement and not criminal activity, have welcomed the government’s decision.&nbsp; Human rights activists and others say that his pardon undermines Nepal’s judiciary, encourages impunity and compounds the injustice to the victims and families of the 2015 killings.&nbsp; 'It is abundantly clear that the government, by disregarding the judgement of the court and infringing upon the judicial rights of victims, is institutionalising impunity, ignoring the spirit of the Constitution, and making a mockery out of the republic,’ read a statement put out by the Accountability Watch Committee (AWC). 'It is reprehensible that the government, which has a responsibility to protect the fundamental rights of the victims, has repeatedly sided with the perpetrator.' The opposition UML has been especially vocal, and has accused Dahal of pardoning a criminal solely to keep his shaky coalition intact.&nbsp; Resham Chaudhary’s release and the ongoing agitation in Kosi Province by activists who want Nepal’s easternmost province to be named after the Kirat ethnic group underscores the Constitution’s inability to address the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-kailali-nepal,2535">grievances and demands</a> for representation by Nepal’s ethnic groups.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/chitwan-s-bote-people-in-a-changing-world">Chitwan’s Bote people in a changing world</a>, Sravasti Ghosh Dastidar

Shristi Karki

Who is Resham Chaudhary …

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

resham-chaudhary

Comparing Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary cases

Who is Resham Chaudhary …

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138