<figure><img width="640" height="399" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161144/636d1d229c7e80680e0af397jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The latest edition of Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tiger census</a> began on Sunday in which 300 enumerators will span out across Parsa, Bardia, Banke, Chitwan and Shuklaphanta National Parks to record <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tigers-move-up-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the big cat population</a> in the country.
The Tiger census begins just after Nepal finished counting its human population. The Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC) will release the figure on World Tiger Day on 29 July. In 2018, the total number of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tigers-now-number-235/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wild tigers in the country was 235</a>.
For the census, Chitwan-Parsa region has been considered as one area, which is divided into three blocks. Banke-Bardia as the second area has been divided into four blocks. Shuklaphanta and Laljandi have been categorised as the third.
A grid of two kilometres in length and one in width will be constructed in the divided block. The three blocks of Chitwan Parsa have been divided into 1,924 grids. These grids are equipped with automatic cameras to capture tiger activity.
“We’ve made such arrangements that the tigers for certain will cross the path with our camera traps,” says Director General of DNPWC Ram Chandra Kandel. “We will then calculate the figure by analysing all the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-highest-ever-tiger-sighting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tigers captured by the camera</a>.”
Some 3,000 camera trap pictures will be taken throughout the survey, which will then be analysed by trained technicians. While there is a possibility of the same tiger being photographed repeatedly, two big cats can be told apart by the length of their fur, which is different for each individual. Before the year 2000, tigers used to be counted as per their steps.
Nepal is an international model for tiger conservation and the first country to double the population of its big cats following the Tiger Conference in Petersburg, Russia in 2009. It is expected to record the highest numbers of tigers in the country yet.
The Nepal government first started the census in 1995, back when there were only 98 of them. In 2018, the country recorded 235 tigers, up from 121 in 2009. Chitwan National Park has the most number of mammals at 93, closely followed by 87 in Bardia. There are 21 more in Banke, 18 in Parsa and 16 in Shuklaphanta, according to the last survey.
Of late, there have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/tiger-selfie-is-highest-ever-sighting-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more frequent sightings of big cats</a> also at higher elevations. In April 2020, a Royal Bengal Tiger was sighted at 2,500m in Dadeldhura. This was followed up by another sighting, this time at 3,165m, in the forest of Ilam.
But conservation successes have also brought about challenges. Protected areas are now overcrowded with predators compared to their prey density. This is driving tigers and other mammals outside forests in search of food, in turn leading to an increase in human-animal conflicts. 
Increased human-animal conflict threatens social harmony and endangers hard achieved past gains in conservation. 
But wildlife-friendly infrastructure such as overpass and underpass have shown to significantly reduce human-animal conflicts in Nepal, so has better management of protected areas including transplantation of animals taking into consideration predator-prey ratio and plant species of the location. 
Read also:
<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16820#.Ya16_cFBzOS">Back to jungle</a>, Nirmal Ghosh
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/sun-striped-shadows/">Sun striped shadows</a>, Lisa Choegyal

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Nepal counting its tigers

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd92a9c7e80680e092e85jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="835"/><figcaption>The new bridge over the Mahakali River currently under construction will join Far West Nepal with the North Indian status of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and New Delhi.</figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">far-west has been neglected</a> by the rest of Nepal for centuries, but it is brimming with potential for socio-economic transformation.The reason it has always been seen as a periphery by Kathmandu has been its remoteness. It is a five hour drive to New Delhi from Dhangadi, but it takes at least 12 hours to get to Kathmandu.The devolution of political power under Nepal’s federal Constitution, and new connectivity are rapidly changing the face of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/book-review/review-nepal-wild-west,486" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Far-Western Province</a> and opened up possibilities for the province to not just catch up with the rest of the country, but even overtake it.The region is filled with natural and human resources. Federalism has enabled local municipalities and provincial government of these nine district to use their own resources for self-determined development priorities.A new bridge over the Mahakali River is under construction and will soon replace the old single lane Tanakpur Barrage as the economic lifeline for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-superwomen-beat-superstition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Far-Western Province</a> by joining it with the north Indian states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and New Delhi. There is a new dry port under construction.The bridge will not just help transform far-west Nepal, but the rest of the country as well when it is finished in two years. Perhaps then, this region cannot be referred to as ‘backward’ or ‘under-developed’ anymore.“In terms of connectivity, this bridge will be a game-changer,” journalist Surendra Phuyal tells the Saglo Samajtv magazine. He points to how the inauguration of the Karnali Bridge also similarly joined the far-west to the rest of the Nepal 27 years ago. Before that, people from far-western Nepal had to travel through India to go to other parts of Nepal.https://youtu.be/UC-Al3hwthUWhile the Karnali Bridge immediately brought the far-west closer to the rest of Nepal, the new Mahakali Bridge will bring the increasingly affluent industrial and agricultural regions of north India closer to Nepal, allowing the easier flow of people and trade.This means Nepal will now be much more accessible to the 200 million people in India who live within a 5 hour driving distance from Dhangadi or Mahendranagar. Many of them are young Indians looking for new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/on-the-road-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">unspoilt destinations</a> to go on holidays or pilgrimage. Many are tired of the overcrowded hill stations of Nanital, Ranikhet, Mussourie in India.Better connectivity can therefore have an immediate impact on tourism if the facilities and infrastructure on the Nepal side can be improved. This in turn, will bring tourism income to the rural far-west reducing the push-factor driving its people to migrate out.Many of the destinations in the far-west and adjacent Karnali are pristine wilderness areas: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/The-Holy-Link,3153" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Khaptad</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/raras-rare-beauty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rara</a> National Parks, Badimalika, Api Saipal Conservation Area. These are all scenic unspoilt wilderness areas with their own religious significance that can be a draw for Indian as well as domestic Nepali tourists.In addition, there are the Sukla Phanta Wildlife Reserve and the Bardia and Banke National Park in Karnali Province. Says nature guide Kum Thakur at Sukla Phanta: “This area is famous the world over for the Barasingheswamp deer, tiger, rhino and rich birdlife. Despite Sukla Phanta’s smaller size compared to other national parks in Nepal, the reserve’s mix of wetland, jungle and vast grasslands give it a higher density of wildlife.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd92d9c7e80680e092e86jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1618" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>North India’s most prosperous areas near Delhi is within a few hours driving distance. Can benefit from tourism from these areas. Increasingly affluent. They are looking for new unspoint destinations. “Chalo Sudur Paschim Pradesh”.Bed Upreti, an airline captain with Air India, who has set up the Mahendranagar Museum says:  “I see huge untapped potential for tourism if the far-west is promoted adequately as a destination. For this, we have to reduce the distance by improving connectivity to the destinations like Khaptad. Whenever I fly over Far-Western Nepal I feel like it is a gold mine for tourism.”Meanwhile, federalism has brought new hope that the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18055#.YFlzKy2B0b0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Far-Western Province</a> can benefit from devolution, and not have to depend on faraway Kathmandu for everything.“We used to have to go to Kathmandu for the movement, now with the province, we can solve our own problems,” says Yagyaraj Chaudhari, a Tharu social activist.Chaudhari says there is residual tension in Far-Western Province between the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/5-myths-about-the-tharu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">indigenous Tharu community</a> of the plains and the mountain settlers. It goes back to the history of trans-location of villagers from the mountain districts to the Tarai during the reign of King Mahendra in the 1960s. This has been exacerbated by instance of violence like the massacre of policemen in Tikapur six years ago, and the continued imprisonment of Tharu leader and MP, Resham Chaudhari.“There is simmering anger among the Tharu because of this, and it is also fed by their under-representation in proportion to the population in government jobs,” says Chaudhari. “Inclusion will address the discrimination, but also help uplift living standards of the Tharu people. Road are important, but even more important is affordable health care and education for our people.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9309c7e80680e092e87jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>With Province 2, the Far-West is possibly the only other province with a distinct identity. For the people of this far-flung region that identity stems from the common sense of neglect by the rest of the country.“What unites the people of Far-Western Province both in the mountains and the plains is that there has been no development here,” says businessman and media entrepreneur Gopal Hamal. “It is our economic weakness that united us, it fostered a sense of solidarity.”He says the priority is to address the i<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/displacement-and-defiance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">njustice that the Tharu have suffered</a> and to address their grievances. He says, “Earlier, it was the settlers from the mountains who mistreated the Tharu, and took their land. Now, despite the Constitution, it is the state that is the oppressor. We have to solve this before it takes a explosive turn.”Although this is not the kind of ethnic identity that the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mr-province-2/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjk-qyvz8XvAhV3umMGHU1gDaMQFjABegQIBxAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw3E_Or9W8x0qHg_9ezNado2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhesi community of Province 2</a> feel, the people of the Far-West feel they share the feeling of being abandoned by the central government for so long.Says Hemraj Panta, who was chief of Kailali Campus and a rector at Sudur Paschim University: “Culturally, the Khas identity and the Tharu identity in the plains give us a distinctness, but perhaps the Far-West has more of a cohesiveness compared to other provinces.”Most interviewees in Mahendranagar and Dhangadi agree that domestic tourism and visitors from India can be a catalyst for economic growth for the Far-Western Province. Just as the neighbouring Indian state of Uttarakhand has the Char Dham Yatra pilgrimage tourism, the province can also promote its shrines and pilgrimage spots that are common to Hindus in Nepal and India.One attraction could be sight-seeing flights from Dhangadi airport for Indian tourists to see <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mansarovar and Mt Kailash</a> from the air, or even Dhaulagiri, Annapurna and Mt Everest.“If one local government promotes one destination, one district identifies one attraction, and the province promotes itself as Sundar Sudur Paschim, we can lift the rural economy,” says Hamal. “The youth will then have jobs and this will reverse outmigration.”

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The sun rises in Nepal’s Far West

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

shuklaphanta

Nepal counting its tigers

The sun rises in Nepal’s Far West

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Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal votes with below average turnout

The magic 138