On Friday, former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal posted a message to his official TikTok account @cmprachandaofficial. He wished a Happy Dasain to all Nepalis, and wished them good health and continued progress. But almost exactly a year ago, his own Maoist-Nepali Congress coalition government <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rattled-by-criticism-nepal-bans-tiktok">banned the app</a> claiming that it ‘disrupted social harmony’. By then, TikTok had seen a meteoric rise and media surveys showed it had overtaken Facebook. &nbsp; The real reason for the ban was that the established parties were spooked by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-populist-party-balenist">newer, alternative leaders</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/street-politics">pro-monarchist forces</a> using the platform and social media to gather followers. But in June this year, the Maoists were ousted from government, the UML joined the Nepali Congress coalition. K P Oli was appointed prime minister for the third time, and in August he unbanned TikTok as suddenly as it was banned. Since then, TikTok has not wasted any time to make up for lost ground in Nepal. Last week it held a pre-Dasain ‘Grow with TikTok: A Masterclass for SMBs’ at the Marriott Hotel in Kathmandu aimed at helping small and medium business enterprises to grow their business. “Humour works best on TikTok, it leads to crazy engagement,” one presenter advised the rapt audience. “Write scripts, have a strong opening, and stand in front of a window sideways for good lighting.” He stressed the need to upload frequently and experiment widely to find out what works for any particular brand.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241014081036_b86a6707bdb76b2776c24807e1973360e4f891be2c114b35f534191f4db23d82.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241014081036_b86a6707bdb76b2776c24807e1973360e4f891be2c114b35f534191f4db23d82" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="666" loading="lazy" alt="TikTok in Nepal"> <figcaption>The conference was attended by business owners and TikTok influencers</figcaption> </figure>  While TikTok is mostly used by Nepalis to lip-sync or dance to song-snippets, one of the tips at the conference was the need to be authentic: to take a trend and make it work for users and their businesses. “I started out by just making videos about what was really happening in my life, and people liked it,” admitted Anjana Aryal, whose achar business sells thousands of jars every week of 22 pickle varieties, employing 15 women. At last count, Aryal had 608,000 followers, and posts every day, mixing content about her pickles with videos of her dancing, shopping, or just talking. Aryal was in a panel of four successful Nepali TikTokers slash business owners, all female, who spoke about how to sell well on the app. A fashion business, makeup studio, and an online store were the other presenters. All four have been using TikTok since 2020 and had the same advice: be consistent, figure out your niche, be genuine, do not take internet hate personally, and find your voice. Taranidhi Regmi runs the Tokha bookstore KitabKiro and has used TikTok for the last two years, reviewing books on video and encouraging people to read. He takes orders through a website and Whatsapp, and has shipped Nepali books to more than 48 countries. “Initially, I didn’t like TikTok, I thought it was quite degenerate,” admits Regmi. “I was annoyed when my nieces were on it, but then I realised the benefits of the app by staying away from the nonsense.” The conference also had a session on how TikTok handles safety issues, moderating content that may be mature and inappropriate, and how it deals with addictive and dangerous activities or products. TikTok executives admit that theirs is a relatively new platform, and they are still learning as they go along. They tried to deflect some of the harder questions about balancing moderation and free speech, and about flagging videos as problematic that would be completely fine in a Nepali context. TikTok says it is implementing ‘community guidelines’ without going into detail about how that works.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241014081040_e6b9e3ca5ce842810d5fbbf190471e4fa8cdf6f7770514abb933f09fa84b7b3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241014081040_e6b9e3ca5ce842810d5fbbf190471e4fa8cdf6f7770514abb933f09fa84b7b3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="TikTok in Nepal"> <figcaption>There were sessions on video creation, security guidelines, and expert panels.</figcaption> </figure>  “For the nine months that TikTok was banned in Nepal, we could not &nbsp;really get clarity on it except the official explanation that it disrupted social harmony,” says Imad Jaffer of TikTok South Asia during a visit to Kathmandu last week. “We were more than open to dialogue, but the government was not responsive at all.” Nepal was not the first to ban TikTok. India has banned it, and it has been closed temporarily in Pakistan four times. US President Joe Biden signed a bill that could lead to a nationwide ban on TikTok unless its Chinese parent company ByteDance sells it to an American entity by 19 January 2025. The main reason is geopolitical, and sensitivity about personal data getting into Chinese hands “In the Pakistan case, we understood that they had concerns about vulgarity on the app,” says Jaffer. “But the Nepal ban was the strangest. We got no explanation for it even though the public sentiment towards the app was overwhelmingly positive.” Despite the ban, about half the Nepalis <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/tiktok-ban-won-t-stop-nepali-netizens">TikTok users</a> just continued posting through VPNs. In some ways, the app is a victim of its own success — it is highly addictive algorithm that can create a feedback loop of content that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/jail-the-messenger">has strong political influence</a>. Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/democracy-s-discontents">populist anti-establishment politicians</a>, monarchist and Hindu nationalist RPP were using the app successfully to gather support, and spread the word about their rallies just before the ban. The Maoist-NC coalition could have felt threatened. After the coalition switch, the Cabinet earlier this month reinstated TikTok &nbsp;under four conditions: <ol> <li>Help promote Nepal’s tourism</li> <li>Invest in digital literacy&nbsp;</li> <li>Support public education system&nbsp;</li> <li>Be ‘mindful’ of content &nbsp;</li> </ol> Experts say that the government has no grounds to make these demands to TikTok, and the conditions are as vague as the original reason for the ban. Yet, the other side to it is that many Nepalis are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/huge-uptick-in-tiktok-during-nepal-lockdown">hooked to the platform</a> which at one point before the ban consumed one third of all internet traffic. Young Nepalis were matchmaking through TikTok, it was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalis-dying-in-someone-elses-war">used to recruit Nepali mercenaries for the Russian Army</a>, and despite age restrictions young people are exposed to graphic content. But bans and restrictions never work. The TikTok ban was seen as an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/talking-about-tiktok">effort by the government to encroach on freedom of expression</a>. It was like parents taking away internet privileges from their children, which actually ends up increasing the attraction for its content.

Vishad Raj Onta

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Taking back TikTok

Baburam Aryal, Advocate, 
Digital Freedom Coalition 
The Nepal government’s decision to ban TikTok is irresponsible and unlawful. Nepal’s Constitution guarantees freedom of expression and the right to information, both for print and online. So this ban is against the spirit of the Constitution. 
 
Kamal Dev Bhattarai, Editor, 
Annapurna Express 
TikTok has good things going on too and one of them is how small entrepreneurs have found success using this platform. This ban has had a damaging impact on these businesses. 
TikTok has also provided space to up-and-coming youth who have been ignored by the mainstream media. The platform has allowed them to unlock their talents and they have gained popularity nationally and internationally. 
 
Smriti Shrestha, Founder, 
Akarsan Skin and Hair Clinic 
Any business requires marketing tools and ours is social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Google, TikTok and Youtube. But unlike other platforms that require you to spend dollars to boost or advertise your business, TikTok doesn’t cost you money. I make content that could go viral and lead to an increase in business without me being required to spend any money. 
TikTok has a viral reach like no other. Earlier this year, Gosainkunda was busy like Asan bazaar because clips of the place were going viral on TikTok and trekkers were visiting in droves as a result. So this ban will also hamper the tourism sector.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/tiktok-ban-won-t-stop-nepali-netizens">TikTok ban won’t stop Nepali netizens</a>, Saniaa Shah 
 
Tanka Aryal, Chair, 
Digital Rights Nepal 
The government seems to have taken it as just banning a private company. &nbsp;But it is against the right to information and freedom of speech enshrined by our Constitution. At the same time, people were using &nbsp;TikTok to promote their businesses, the platform has been crucial for the tourism industry and for entrepreneurship. 
As such, this is an ad hoc bad with a very weak excuse that TikTok was creating social disharmony. Is TikTok the only one doing so? Even then, as per our &nbsp;Constitution, we cannot shut down any media platform but we can regulate the content given that hate speech, mis- and disinformation are quite prevalent these days. The state can also work on digital literacy instead of taking this easy route which is a regressive step. 
The ban therefore is against the prevalent law and Constitution of the land. &nbsp;This is also impractical in today's world where technology is an integral part of everyday life. 
 
Santosh Sigdel, Advocate, 
Digital Rights Nepal 
The &nbsp;TikTok ban has a direct impact on digital rights. The most important thing when it comes to digital rights is access to the internet, and for most of the Nepalis that was TikTok. And the ban has curtailed their rights. 
TikTok is very user-friendly and doesn’t need a whole lot of technical know-how which was why its users were increasing exponentially, in turn leading to a huge reach. 
The ban has also directly impacted freedom of speech and the right to information online. 
Then there is the right to employment. A lot of small entrepreneurs were using TikTok for their business. Much of their digital content is lost and so is their means of livelihood. In a nutshell, the TikTok ban curtails a whole lot of basic rights. 
 
Chiranjivi Adhikari, General Secretary, 
CAAN Federation 
The decision to ban TikTok because of security reasons is not scientific. &nbsp;Expecting privacy from social media sites we consume for free doesn't really make sense, our content on these platforms is at the very least on their servers. 
More worryingly, with free DNS and VPN we are seeing a massive increase in TikTok users. Free DNS and VPN are not secure and run malicious codes. If these get installed on our phones and laptops, and especially if we use the same devices for offices, they could destroy the whole network in our workplaces. These devices can also access our banking details and can easily do away with monetary losses for us.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rattled-by-criticism-nepal-bans-tiktok">Rattled by criticism, Nepal bans TikTok</a> 
 
Dinesh Tripthi, 
Senior advocate 
If we are to ban TikTok we will have to ban the whole of social media. We know that FaceBook, YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter have all been misused and more so. As such, the government will have to ban the internet. People also get vulgar, harassing messages on their mobile phones. This means the ban is not the solution. In a democratic society, a remedy shouldn’t be worse than a disease. Any step that the government takes should be based on the Constitution, and not constrict the democratic space like they have done by banning the platform in Nepal.

Talking about Tiktok

Unnerved by the rise of rightwing religious groups, Nepal’s coalition cabinet decided Monday to clamp an immediate ban on TikTok, saying the social media platform is spreading social discord. The popularity of the Chinese social media platform rose dramatically in Nepal since the Covid lockdown, rivalling the reach of Facebook, and political pressure groups had started using it to multiply their reach. “The cabinet decided to ban TikTok because of its impact on social harmony,” Minister of Communication and Information Technology Rekha Sharma said. “We are overseeing the prompt implementation of the closure.” Sharma, who is also the government spokesperson, said, however, it could take some time to shut down the platform in a smooth manner. The announcement was obviously timed for the Tihar holiday period, when the government might have expected criticism of the move to be muted. However, most of the immediate reaction on social media (and also on TikTok itself) was of outrage and ridicule with most commentators seeing it as a sign of a shaky coalition that has been spooked by the rise of the religious right and pro-monarchy forces. The last<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-interface-with-information"> media survey</a> conducted by Sharecast Initiative in 2022 showed that 56% of a sample group of Nepalis who were on the Internet said they used TikTok. The platform was launched by the Chinese technology company ByteDance in 2016, and saw a spurt in users in Nepal after the pandemic lockdowns. “TikTok’s aggressive algorithm makes it highly addictive, and that is the reason for its rapid spread in Nepal,” explains Sharecast Initiative’s Madhu Acharya. “But there has been concern about cultural invasion through its content, and the government appears to be worried about it being used by those opposed to the secular and republican &nbsp;constitution.” Acharya is preparing a new media survey this year, and extrapolates TikTok’s user base to have now grown to 85-95% to rival Facebook and YouTube.&nbsp; Many critics of the move have seen the TikTok ban as the first step in what they see as a government design to muzzle freedom of expression and an independent media in Nepal, which is currently the most open society in South Asia. "TikTok represents freedom of expression. Banning it is to curtain freedom of speech. How will the government be accountable if there is no criticism?,” says Constitutional law expert Bipin Adhikari. “As long as there is no incitement to violence or criminality, or encourage religious strife, the government has no right to ban free expression.” Opposition parties have been scathing in their criticism of the government move, saying it exposes the fragility of the 8-party coalition government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre with the Nepali Congress and other smaller parties.&nbsp; Even some dissident members of the Nepali Congress have taken to social media to voice their opposition to the TikTok ban announcement. ‘If you have a boil on your neck, you don’t chop off your neck,’ wrote Bishwa Prakash Sharma of the Nepali Congress who is with a faction opposed to party president Sher Bahadur Deuba. ‘Identify those who are misusing the platform. But shutting down TikTok is undemocratic.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231113131112_b7c68b593d4d601406a2fb754d6010db8d03fa17fee17b9129cd6c576fc9f370.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20231113131112_b7c68b593d4d601406a2fb754d6010db8d03fa17fee17b9129cd6c576fc9f370" data-rendition-name="original" width="1192" height="676" loading="lazy" alt="tiktok"> </figure>  Another NC General Secretary Gagan Thapa said the TikTok ban reeked of authoritarianism: "This is a sign that the government wants to clamp down on freedom of expression. The government has taken a wrong step." <div class="embed-block"><div style="max-width: 550px;"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="//cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?app=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fthapagk%2Fstatus%2F1723976965810688154&key=87ca3314a9fa775b5c3a7726100694b0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div></div></div> A spokesperson of the independent RSP which is also in the opposition said that if there was a problem with TikTok it could be regulated, and an outright ban was overkill. One immediate concern that the government had appears to be over businessman Durga Prasai who has mounted a vocal campaign on TikTok against mainstream parties for the reinstatement of a Hindu monarchy in Nepal. He had made a call for 100,000 people to rally in Kathmandu on 21 November. Prasai, who is heavily in debt after having borrowed to start a hospital in eastern Nepal, has also been leading a public campaign to refuse to pay back bank loans. Many see his anti-establishment political stance as a way to magnify his movement. Nepal is not the first country to ban the app. India imposed a nationwide ban on TikTok in 2020. Along with a looming ban in the US, other countries including Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, and Norway among others have also banned the app on government devices.&nbsp; While for many of these countries, the issue seems to be the Chinese ownership and user data security, the Nepal government has cited social harmony as the main reason for the move.&nbsp; The ban closely follows the recently introduced ‘Directive on the Operation of Social Networking 2023’ which says that social media platforms operating in Nepal now have to establish offices in the country. It also has a list of 19 things users are not allowed to do on social media including creating and engaging through fake IDs, posting media or text that spreads animosity against any community, caste, gender, religion, indulging in hate speech and defaming others. To be sure, internationally as well as in Nepal, Tiktok has become a breeding ground for hate speech. There have been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1780027">studies</a> on how TikTok is being used to spread racist, sexist and homophobic content.&nbsp; There are instances in Nepali Tiktoksphere where clips of individual users who have made <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@chhabilalsubedi.official/video/7298021488991522050">questionable comments around certain communities</a> have gone viral starting a thread of spat between the communities. Some have also indulged in morally questionable behaviour including a recent case of a female CPN Maoist Centre cadre exposing herself during a TikTok live. It has also emerged as a platform for online gambling, and the app’s rising popularity also means that it has become a medium for spreading fake news, misinformation and disinformation. But it is difficult to say the same does not happen or has not previously happened on other social media apps. &nbsp; Instead of regulating what technology a person uses or how they choose to use it, critics say a more nuanced approach like addressing specific issues and promoting digital literacy is required. A more creative way would be to utilise TikTok itself to tackle the extremist ideologies in collaboration with the social media platform and foster dialogue both on and offline.&nbsp; Even when developing and enforcing legal frameworks, it is important to ensure that these are in line with international human rights standards and do not infringe upon or restrict freedom of expression.&nbsp; Says advocate Baburam Aryal of the Internet Governance Institute, "Today it is TikTok, tomorrow it could be Kantipur, the next day it could be Onlinekhabar, there is a danger that all media will be muzzled. This is how authoritarianism begins."

Rattled by criticism, Nepal bans TikTok

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;