<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fb9c7e80680e0a5f3ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>There is breaking news every other day: the United States donates 2 million Moderna shots to Bangladesh and Pakistan. Denmark announces 250,000 AstraZeneca doses to Bhutan. Japan pledges surplus AZ vaccines to Sri Lanka and the Pacific Islands.Nepal is never in the news, even though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lonely-wait-of-nepals-elderly-for-2nd-doses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1.4 million people still wait for their second doses</a> of Covishield AZ vaccines and another 20 million people need to be inoculated before a possible third wave this year. So far, Nepal has only been gifted or bought vaccines from India, China or the COVAX initiative. It has not even got 1 million vaccines from Serum Institute India that it paid for, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/no-vax-ask-for-mask/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">all other promises from western countries were never kept</a>.  Nepal’s vaccine diplomacy has failed miserably. And the only silver lining is that there are four million doses of the Chinese Sinopharm VeroCell starting next week to immediately inoculate its above 55 population.Nepal is still recording an excess of 2,000 new cases a day and is seeing a slight daily increase following the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">relaxation in travel restrictions</a>. Everyone, the public and the government, seem to have forgotten that the real peak during the first wave last year took place only after the lockdown was eased.“The third wave is already on its way, our figures are going up and we must assume we will be hit by new variants,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences (PAHS). “We must vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible, if not we will get more difficult variants that are potentially resistant to the vaccines.”In other news, the Oxford Vaccine Group which developed the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine has found that administering two doses 44-45 weeks produced the highest antibody boost. This news, announced by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Andrew Pollard</a>, one of the developers of the AZ, is glad tidings for countries like Nepal where people above 65 are waiting for their second doses.Pollard said antibody levels remained elevated for close to a year with <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/ten-month-gap-between-astrazeneca-doses-sees-highest-antibody-boost-oxford-study/article35019890.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a ten-month gap between AZ doses</a>, as well as antibody levels twice that after the second dose among volunteers who were administered a third booster dose, pointing to a long-term, possibly life long immunity, also against variants.“This is great news for the elderly, many of whom are panicking, unable to get their second dose in the recommended time frame. The additional time the study has afforded us shouldn’t lead to complacency in our effort to procure vaccines,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, an epidemiologist at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital. <figure><img width="950" height="633" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fe9c7e80680e0a5f3bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Norway, Czech Republic and Denmark have unused AZ shots they want to donate to Nepal, but have been forced to go through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/hope-hyperbole-and-hypocrisy-of-covax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVAX, which is unlikely to deliver</a> the doses before the end of 2021.On 1 July, Denmark announced that it would donate 250,000 vaccines to Bhutan. However, it is understood that these grants still need to be facilitated by the EU. Also in the news this week is the result of a new modelling study published in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s medical journal Eurosurveillance that further strengthens the link between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/despite-doubts-nepal-sticks-with-astrazeneca-jabs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AZ vaccines and a rare blood clot</a>.The study models four months of a vaccine distribution strategy in France from May 2021 and concludes that using AZ on the entire adult population would avert 10 deaths from Covid among 18-39-year-olds. However, it would be associated with 21 deaths from blood clots in the same age group over the same time period. In other words, <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html?type=amp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clot risk to younger people from the AZ vaccine</a> is twice as high as Covid death risk. But public health experts in Nepal maintain that the benefit of mass vaccination still far outweighs the risk. “Similar studies in the context of the South Asian population are needed but as it is, transmission risk of Covid is much higher than the individual risk of blood clots here,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.Buddha Basnyat of PAHS concurs: “The UK with over half of its population fully vaccinated is now being hit by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covids-regional-threat-needs-regional-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">delta variant</a>, although it has been largely spared from severity due to the mass inoculation. Nepal being mostly unvaccinated is unprotected both from transmission and severity. This should show us where our priority should lie.”The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control finding about clot risk therefore could indirectly be a blessing in disguise for countries like Nepal by further freeing up AZ stockpiles in Europe, as well as Korea and Japan.Even so, blood clot risk has prompted leaders including Germany’s Angela Markel to opt for Moderna as a booster shot to her first dose of AZ jab.Several EU nations including Germany have said mix-and-match doses are safe for Covid prevention, which according to new findings also point to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a better immune response</a>. This could also offer much-needed flexibility when vaccine supplies are uneven or limited.“We need to introduce mixing and matching also in Nepal in the face of more virulent delta variants, particularly for the elderly who are at the higher risk of developing severity from an infection, instead of waiting endlessly for Covishield,” says Basnyat.At a time when Nepal is yet to recover from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">devastating second surge</a>, only an equitable vaccination strategy will prevent an even more deadly third wave. But a mere 2.6% of Nepal’s population has been fully vaccinated, and less than 9% has received a single dose of either Covishield or VeroCell shots.  <figure><img width="1594" height="898" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06009c7e80680e0a5f3cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And even the doses are unevenly distributed within the country. More than half the first dose of VeroCell was distributed in Bagmati province, according to the government’s own figures. Moreover, 97% of the booster jabs of VeroCell were used only in Bagmati Province. “We are seeing a similar kind of disparity in vaccination that we saw in testing, concentrated in urban centres and in particular Kathmandu,” notes epidemiologist Lhamo Yanghen Sherpa. “The excuse for using most of the doses in Kathmandu is that people elsewhere refused to inoculate. If that’s the case what is the government and others doing to dispel vaccine myths?” Virologist Sher Bahadur Pun says the government should immediately deploy its 60,000 or so <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">female community volunteers</a> and healthcare workers who have historically done such effective work in non-Covid childhood vaccination drives.He adds, “They are spread across the country and are best placed to communicate the significance of vaccines and increase vaccination uptakes at  local levels.”

Sonia Awale

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Vaccines too little, too late for Nepal?

<figure><img width="765" height="510" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3579c7e80680e096649jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The first consignment of 348,000 doses of AstraZeneca Covishielf vaccines under the COVAX initiative arrives in Kathmandu on 7 March. The rest of the 1.92 million doses promised is expected at end-May.</figcaption></figure>As the world’s biggest vaccine producer, India was first off the mark with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine diplomacy</a> in January by shipping millions of doses to neighbouring countries in South Asia.At the time, China was making forays with gifts for South American and African countries. It also made bulk sales of its Sinovac or Sinopharm vaccines – more than 150 million doses to Indonesia, 100 million to Turkey and 85 million to Mexico.New Delhi used its AstraZeneca Covishield brand for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ diplomacy with high-profile gifts to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. In fact, Sri Lanka rejected the Chinese donation, and Bangladesh was refused vaccines by China because it did not agree to trials.However, the second wave is now surging in India with the daily infection rate exceeding 82,000, which is nearing the peak in September of 99,000 per day. The Indian government came under criticism for shipping out more vaccines than it was giving its own citizens, and last month banned the export of Covishield made by Serum Institute of India and its other Covaxin brand manufactured by Bharat Biotech.This has left countries like Nepal in a lurch. It had already used the 1 million Covishield gifted by India in January for the first phase of inoculation of about 460,000 in high-risk groups. Although Nepal has enough in stock for their second dose starting 22 April, it has put its vaccine drive on hold because of the Indian ban. Another 300,000 people above 65 who got Covishield will have to wait for future shipment for their second dose.Nepal is yet to receive a further million doses it has already paid for from the Serum Institute of India. The Indian export ban has also delayed the next batch of Covishield shots under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617427107762000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBEk3TZV7gE1BtmBi5FrPnaJBSNQ">the COVAX initiative</a>, which is now not expected till May. Nepal received its first batch of 348,000 doses of Covishield under COVAX on 7 March, and is supposed to get another 1.92 million by May.The COVAX Facility is funded by the governments of Australia, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union as well as foundations and corporations, and is targeted for poorer countries in Africa and Asia. It sources its AstraZeneca shots from Serum Institute of India.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-fights-infodemic-to-push-vaccine/">Nepal fights infodemic to push vaccine</a>, Sonia AwaleMeanwhile, India announced on Thursday that anyone above 45 would be eligible for vaccines, as it diverted all domestic production to counter the second wave. Indian officials have said they will continue to supply vaccines under the COVAX commitment, but that the volume would be “recalibrated”. India is getting urgent requests from Canada, EU and UK for AtraZeneca, but export has dropped from 30 million a week in February to less than 6 million by late March.Meanwhile, China has now become the top exporter of Covid-19 vaccines as it has its domestic coronavirus spread under control through aggressive enforcement of precautions, testing and tracing.China first promised a gift of 500,000 doses of Sinopharm, and increased this to 800,000 in March. A Nepal Airlines plane brought those doses from Beijing on 30 March, and the government says it will use them to inoculate those between 45-59 years. <figure><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3599c7e80680e09664ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi with Nepal's Health Minister Hridayesh Tripathi at Kathmandu airport on 30 March.</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="550" height="371" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce35c9c7e80680e09664bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi hands over 800,000 doses of China’s Sinopharm vaccines after they were flown from Beijing to Kathmandu on a Nepal Airlines plane on 30 March.</figcaption></figure>Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi handed over the 800,000 doses to Health and Population Minister Hridayesh Tripathi on Tuesday at a ceremony at Kathmandu Airport. Ambassador Hou said: "This batch of vaccines is not only an implementation of the solemn commitment of China to make Chinese COVID vaccine a global public good, but also a vivid manifestation of our two countries' joint construction of a community with a shared future."India made another donation of 100,000 doses of Covishield last week, but it was a goodwill gift from the Indian Army to the Nepal Army. The doses were handed over to Nepal Army Chief Purna Chandra Thapa by Indian Ambassdor Vinay Mohan Kwatra on 30 March during a video conference with the Indian Army Chief M M Naravane. <figure><img width="1280" height="853" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce35e9c7e80680e09664cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra hands over 100,000 doses of Covishield vaccine to Nepal Army Chief Purna Chandra Thapa on 30 March in Kathmandu.</figcaption></figure>So far, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/1-6-million-vaccinated-20-million-to-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/1-6-million-vaccinated-20-million-to-go/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617427107763000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbfYYCoTsnvHjJ6ceHKk8ZkMLIJQ">Nepal has inoculated 1.6 million people</a> and needs to vaccinate 20 million more under its target to immunise 70% of its population. For this alone, the government needs to look into other certified vaccines in the market such as Russian Sputnik V, Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin and Chinese vaccines.With government-to-government deals in jeopardy, the Ministry of Health is now trying to get private importers involved to import doses. Suppliers of India’s Covaxin and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617427107763000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqnSW3L-QsMCfzOkE9geLUdn2yDg">the Russian Sputnik</a> are said to be interested, and the government has approved Covaxin for emergency use.

The gift of the jab

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd8cf9c7e80680e092e62jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2731"/><figcaption>A health worker in Jumla administers Covidshield AstraZeneca vaccine to an elderly this week. Photo: LAXMI NGAKHUSI/UNICEF NEPAL</figcaption></figure>Over 1.6 million Nepalis have so far been inoculated against the coronavirus, all of them with the AstraZeneca vaccine that several <a href="http://‘The damage is done’: Europe’s caution over AstraZeneca vaccine could have far-reaching consequences" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">European countries have suspended</a> because of fears of blood clots.With a turnout of 65% of frontline workers, vulnerable groups and people over the age of 65, Nepal has completed the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-fights-infodemic-to-push-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second phase of its Covid-19 vaccination</a> rollout with the Covishield vaccine either donated or bought from the Serum Insitute of India.“We have managed to protect the groups most vulnerable to Covid-19 from the possible second wave,” Shyam Raj Upreti, head of the Government Covid Vaccine Strategy told Nepali Times. “The fact that there have been no serious side effects has increased the acceptance level of the vaccine among the masses and health practitioners themselves.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-not-over-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">It's not over yet</a>, EditorialHowever, reports of some EU nations, Thailand and other countries suspending the use of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine because of serious blood clots among some recipients may result in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine hesitancy</a> among the remaining population. Covishield is the brand name of the Indian-made version of AstraZeneca.Germany, France, Italy and Spain suspended the vaccine program , following in the footsteps of by Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Latvia discontinuing the vaccine earlier this week. Austria has temporarily paused the use of certain batches. Thailand is the first country in Asian nation to halt AstraZeneca shots.The <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/16/europe/who-astrazeneca-europe-coronavirus-tuesday-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suspensions have baffled public health experts</a> who warn that there is neither enough data to justify the decision, nor evidence to blame the blood clots on the vaccine. It is especially worrisome because some European countries suffering their third wave of Covid-19 desperately need the vaccines.“To date, the vaccine has been safe in this part of the world, so its benefits far outweigh the risk,” said epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa, while cautioning that serious side effects should be monitored and their underlying causes studied.The suspensions in Europe, however, may be a blessing in disguise for countries like Nepal which have faced delays in shipments of AstraZeneca from India because of the rise in global demand. The price of the 2.2 million doses that Nepal had ordered from the Serum Institute also went up to $5 because of the shortage. It bought the first lot for $4 per dose.Nepal has approved two coronavirus vaccines for emergency use, Covishield AstraZeneca and China’s Sinopharm. So far, the government has only administered Covidshield and Nepali experts see no reason to discontinue the vaccine without a real causal link between AstraZeneca and the blood clots.With only about 600,000 doses in stock, Nepal needs to procure another 1.5 million shots if it wants to provide second doses starting from 20 April for those who inoculated in the first and second phases. Vaccine availability will also determine when the third phase aimed at people in the age group 55-64 age group will begin.“There is every likelihood that politics is involved in this decision to suspend AstraZeneca in the EU. We know that this vaccine is very safe, but it protects us from Covid and its more serious symptoms,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Medical Sciences.Nepal has yet to receive another 1 million doses of Covidshield it ordered last month. Serum Institute of India was unable to deliver it on 15 March as expected. Similarly, Nepal received only 348,000 doses of Covishield vaccine under the COVAX initiative on 7 March of the promised 2.2 million doses. The next batch was not expected before May, but it could now be shipped earlier because of the suspensions.China, on the other hand, has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000 but there is a delay in procurement with Beijing insisting that Nepal send a plane to collect it .The shortfall in supply and procurement challenges have forced the Health Ministry to allow private companies to import other vaccines, including the Covaxin manufactured by Bharat Biotech in India.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination drive</a> and fewer daily positive cases have given Nepalis a false sense of security. Youth are out and about, shopping malls, cinema halls and dance bars are crowded, schools and offices have stopped maintaining physical distance.At a time when neighbouring <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-not-over-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India is experiencing a possible second wave</a>, public health experts say the public has to be even more vigilant and follow safety precautions. Even those who have been vaccinated must remember that they can still be a carrier.Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa’s advice is: “The pandemic is not over, we can’t let our guard down. Vaccinate if possible, increase testing and continue to mask up, wash hands and maintain distance.”

Despite doubts, Nepal sticks with AstraZeneca jabs

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccff9c7e80680e08bc51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Nepal took delivery of one million doses of Covishield vaccine ordered from the Serum Institute of India, on Sunday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Amidst the pandemic, Covid-19 vaccines have become a means for countries to exert influence over others. This has seen global powers flex their manufacturing prowess to reap geopolitical gains.As a landlocked country perched between China and India, the world’s two most populous countries and the largest global vaccine manufacturers, Nepal has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMX8c41M-XBr18zmXA9q450CrOjw">benefited from them. </a>Attempts by both Beijing and Delhi to distribute vaccines to Nepal signify the Himalayan state’s growing strategic value to both.India made the first move. In January, New Delhi <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvA5Q2Hq3IlOSW_YRiVLKoHZsimg">pledged to inoculate</a> Nepal’s frontline workers before any other country, and promptly dispatched one million doses of the Covishield vaccine manufactured by its <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.seruminstitute.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFeCK6lMJ0mEMwnhe5ZlUkRhkq83g">Serum Institute of India.</a>“Nepal is getting the vaccines within a week after India rolled out its vaccination drive, which signifies the friendship between India and Nepal and the importance India attaches to Nepal,” India’s ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra said, as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFGat2xjZpiPoxjEjZIquz-r4fqSw">first shipment of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine arrived at Kathmandu airport.</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd029c7e80680e08bc52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2839" height="2092"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such rosy optics masked recent complications in relations between the two neighbours. India’s ties with Nepal have been strained in recent years by the Kalapani border <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHENUQx_suOCbeya69_G1M1t9-8ZQ">dispute</a>. In May 2020, India’s Defence Ministry opened a new 80 km-long road in the Himalaya to the Chinese border that passed through territory claimed by Nepal. In response, Kathmandu changed its own official map, and set up new border posts.There had been concerns in New Delhi that Nepal has become increasingly ‘Sinified’, especially since its six-month blockade of the border in 2015. China was the architect of the alliance of Nepal’s Maoist and UML parties, which swept the 2017 elections and united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).Since 2018, Prime Minister K P Oli has signed off on numerous projects that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. The NCP and the Chinese Communist Party forged fraternal ties, with various workshops on ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ held in Kathmandu.After infighting among members of the Maoist coalition, Oli was forced to dissolve Parliament in December, presenting an opportunity for New Delhi to jostle for influence. While India will need to present more robust measures of support to Nepal than vaccines to cement its influence, India has a head start in the case of vaccine diplomacy.Evidently, Beijing has grown increasingly frustrated with the NCP leadership, and has voiced its displeasure by not opening its two border checkpoints, citing the pandemic. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmlmUxbFQO-w3a9zFkseqhfdPvxg">China’s Ambassador in Nepal Hou Yanqi</a> failed after repeated attempts to get the NCP leadership to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">patch up their differences</a>, Beijing sent its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">Army Chief Wei Wengfe</a> to Kathmandu in November just after India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLEaB38PgM99Dyx6gKRNEM6v1gSg">Chief of Army Staff M M Navarane</a> himself paid a visit to Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd069c7e80680e08bc53jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Not to be outdone in vaccine geopolitics, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali on 5 February, and <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGy-kYDmw6qDY0hOU4alm8LtlGWKw">pledged </a>500,000 doses of its Sinopharm vaccine. After a long delay, the Chinese vaccine finally got approval from Nepal’s Department of Drug Administration last week for emergency use.The delay in the approval process for the Sinopharm vaccine, which has not been approved by the WHO yet, appears to have miffed Beijing. The Indian media played up supposed pressure by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu to fast-track the approval process.Beyond the Himalaya, vaccine geopolitics is playing out elsewhere in South Asia. Attempts by China to distribute vaccines to Bangladesh were thwarted after the government there refused to contribute to the development costs of the Sinopharm vaccine.After India donated two million doses of Covishield to Bangladesh, Dhaka struck a deal to <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9b3i3OdybiKzX5Vufug5v02OGGw">purchase 30 million</a> doses of the vaccine for the country, snubbing Beijing. Chinese state media accused <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoix9h2tMalRVwO7rZWBx2DMco2w">Delhi of meddling</a> with its  attempt to distribute vaccines in Bangladesh.China’s closest ally in the region, Pakistan, became the first country to receive donated shipments of China’s Sinopharm vaccine, with Beijing <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfbpJhrMSFm9ugwe0zMnssbFpZbw">pledging to send over</a> 1.2 million doses to Islamabad.Along with Nepal and Bangladesh, New Delhi also gifted Covishield to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Seychelles, Mauritius and Burma as part of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.Nepal also took delivery of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOkIKOTq_lBwSlRkb9icdh4NEBhA">1 million more Covishield vaccines</a> that it ordered from the Serum Institute of India on Sunday, and another 2.2 million doses purchased by Britain under the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCmy6JvaMqdagVd7fzazTMUZePEA">WHO’s GAVI-COVAX initiative</a> are arriving next week.China has made strategic gains in the region in recent years to India’s detriment. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has poured investment into Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and the Maldives. Funded by Chinese money, massive ports, highways and other infrastructure projects have been built. With its muddled bureaucracy and weaker spending power, Delhi had not been able to keep up with Beijing’s soft power expansion.Now, India is using vaccines as the vanguard of its response. The Serum Institute has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0Xe33J3K0BozaLao6fO5i6bcnag">been producing</a> vaccine supplies at a much faster rate than the Indian government’s inoculation program can distribute them, making it easy for Delhi to send them abroad without suffering political backlash at home.This has given India a new edge for its soft power ambitions in the South Asian and Indian Ocean regions. Given that most of the developing world will not be vaccinated <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRvEEUYnAtYJl-4suTFC2JfUJFhQ">until 2023</a>, demand for vaccines will only rise. While China’s manufacturing prowess means that it is likely to keep up with demand, regional resistance to its largely un-trialed vaccines will complicate efforts to gain approval by government agencies.What happens in Nepal over the coming months will be a microcosm of regional vaccine geopolitics. The erosion of Chinese influence with its inability to keep the NCP together, gives an opening for New Delhi to reassert itself in Kathmandu.While China may have promised Nepal its continued support to help <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVHDy7dKQmiyzWk-iPKWg82NOhBw">overcome the pandemic</a>, its assistance may not be needed or welcomed if India already fulfils this role.

South Asia’s vaccine geopolitics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca6b9c7e80680e08bb66jpeg.jpg" alt="health workers receive covid vaccine" width="2048" height="1364"/><figcaption>The first frontline health workers being inoculated with Covishield last week in Kathmandu from the 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine donated by India. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>The Ministry of Health has assured the public that there will be enough free Covid-19 vaccines for everyone above 18, after the first phase of inoculating frontline workers is complete.Nearly 150,000 of the 430,000 health workers and other high-risk groups in the first phase have already been vaccinated with the Astra Zeneca Covishield made by the <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Serum Institute of India</a>.  However, that is only half of the people on the government’s priority list.The ministry is now waiting for more than 2.25 million more Covishield vaccines to arrive under the World Health Organization (WHO) and the <a href="https://www.gavi.org">Global Vaccine Alliance (GAVI) COVAX initiative</a>.The first lot of 1 million vaccines was gifted by the Indian government on 21 January, but the rest of the doses will be needed for the booster shots in two weeks. That is expected to coincide with the new Covishield consignment under COVAZ that will arrive by the end of the month.The Chinese government has also promised to gift 300,000 doses of its own Sinopharm vaccine, but the timetable for that is also unknown. Nepal has not ordered vaccines from any other private company or country.“We will administer the vaccines that are already here, and give the jabs as new COVAX vaccines arrive,” Health Ministry spokesperson Jageshwar Gautam said, “but they will not be coming all at once, we have to depend on the international supply chain, and have to adhere to our guidelines on which vaccines are affordable and available.”Gautam confirmed that the COVAX doses should arrive later this month, and immediately dispatched for inoculation of remaining frontline workers after which it will be the turn of citizens above 60.British Ambassador to Nepal Nicola Pollitt expressed happiness via a Twitter post in Nepali on Thursday that COVAX doses would be arriving soon: ‘The UK government assisted COVAX with 550 million pounds, and I am very glad that more than 2 million doses of this vaccine will be arriving next month. We will be cooperating with the Ministry of Health, WHO and UNICEF to make the vaccines available.’Frontline health workers, ambulance drivers, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">female community health volunteers</a>, those working in senior citizens’ homes, security officials and prisoners were the first priority, but they make up only 3% of the population that need to be vaccinated.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca6e9c7e80680e08bb67jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="536" height="694">Covishield is being administered from 143 centres in all 77 districts, and there will not be enough for everyone in the first phase since there are 911,000 people on the Ministry of Health’s priority list of those eligible.The ministry is readying to vaccinate 5.154 million people in the second phase, which is 17% of the target population. The priority will be those above 55 years of age, and those in the 40-54 age group with chronic diseases.In the third phase it will be the rest of those aged 40-54 who total 2.9 million, which is 9.55% of the population. Then it will be the turn of all 12.78 million in the 18-39 age group who will get their jabs next, and they form 42% of the population. Those under 18 will not get the vaccine until safety issues are cleared up.Gautam says that completing all four phases may take as long as late 2022, because the timetable for inoculations will depend on the availability of various vaccines in the world market. He added that all vaccines will be free to Nepali citizens will be procured through  government-to-government agreements, or through the WHO-GAVI’s COVAX program.One government sources hinted that the second phase may be complemented by an additional Indian grant of 1 million doses of the <a href="https://www.bharatbiotech.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bharat Biotech Covaxin</a> which has been approved for restricted emergency use in India.Just to be sure, the Ministry of Health is said to be also trying to buy 1 million doses of the vaccines from India at a discounted rate, even though Covaxin has not yet completed third phase trials and has not been approved by the WHO.The Chinese Embassy has confirmed that the 300,000 doses of its Sinopharm vaccines will be a gift, but has not given a specific time frame. Although the Sinopharm has regulator approval for emergency use in China, Nepali authorities have not yet done so.Covaxin is India’s first locally produced vaccine and can be stored at normal refrigeration temperature of 2-8 Celsius, which makes it even more ideal for Nepal’s conditions. The Ministry is said to be sourcing 20% of vaccines in Nepal to from Bharat Biotech. This week the Indian company signed an agreement with Ocugen to co-develop and market the vaccine in the United States.Because of the ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-global-vaccine-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine divide</a>’ with rich countries hoarding or reserving most of the available supply, poor countries like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1612582425459000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdOOtR76bQRV735TToZmGPlS1SyQ">Nepal will need to coordinate closely</a> with the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1612582425459000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvKxOI3Sbxj88Q9UhBeYrw3GfoIA">World Health Organization-initiated COVAX</a>, the only global inter-governmental initiative working with manufacturers to ensure Covid-19 vaccines are available to developing countries. Under COVAX, Nepal is expected to get 2.25 million Covishield vaccines from India.The limiting factor for Nepal is that the vaccines should be available, affordable, of the kind that do not need extreme refrigeration, and a cold chain not less than 20 Celsius. The government has also asked those who can afford to buy vaccines to do so, and the money will be used to buy doses for people who cannot afford the injections.Meanwhile, there were only 171 cases of coronavirus among 2,550 that were tested on Tuesday – 78 of them in Kathmandu Valley. There are now fewer than 2,300 active cases in Nepal, and number of patients in ICU has dropped to 61, with 14 of them on ventilator support. There were two days with no fatalities this week, and two patients died from coronavirus on Thursday – bringing the total so far to 2,033.Overseas, three more Nepalis died of Covid-19 this week, bringing the total number of reported deaths in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-diaspora-hit-by-covid-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">diaspora</a> to 330. According to Sanjiv Sapkota of the Non-resident Nepalese Association (NRNA) 58,695 Nepalis in 50 countries had tested positive for coronavirus as of 30 January.As a new strain of Covid-19 sweeps Europe, the NRNA has issued guidelines on safety precautions, vaccines and also its side-effects. Sapkota, who heads NRNA’s Health Committee warned Nepalis abroad that even those who have been vaccinated can still transmit the disease, so continued precaution was necessary.The new fatalities and infections among Nepalis were reported this week from the UK, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, Nigeria. This comes even as the Covid-19 cases in Nepal continued to drop.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/"> A shot in the arm for vaccines in Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale

Next up for vaccines: elderly Nepalis

<figure><img width="2048" height="1282" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1af9c7e80680e083e61jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>With the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/">pre-winter resurgence of Covid-19</a> around the world and in Nepal, pressure is mounting on governments to procure vaccines to protect their populations.
Last week, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal government set up a committee</a> of secretaries of the Finance, Home, Health and Foreign Affairs ministries to study vaccines under development as well as procedures to procure them. But Nepal is far behind other countries, which have already ‘booked’ their future supplies.
On Wednesday President Bidya Devi Bhandari signed an ordinance empowering the government to import Covid-19 vaccines from international pharmaceutical companies, and to use them even if they are authorised only for emergency use.
<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">VAX POPULI</a>, Sonia Awale
However, there is no effective strategy to ensure vaccines for all as distribution in Nepal comes with the challenge of taking it to poor and remote corners of the country. Experts fear that even when the vaccines become available, the campaign will be plagued by the same socio-economic inequities that afflict the medical sector.
“We need to immediately start identifying vulnerable groups like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">frontline health workers</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spared-at-first-elderly-hit-hard-by-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the elderly</a> or those with comorbidities to prioritise for immunisation,” says Bikash Gauchan, a physician at Bayalpata Hospital in the under-served western district of Achham.
“We also need to set up proper cold chain facilities across the country as soon as possible and have a well thought out distribution plan so that when the vaccine does arrive, we can hit the ground running,” he adds.
The silver lining is that Nepal already has a successful <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/polio-hunt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">childhood immunisation</a> network that has successfully mobilised <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Female Community Health Volunteers</a>, and they can deliver vaccines to the homes of the elderly who cannot make it to clinics. Monitoring the follow-up second dose for some of the vaccines will be crucial, although Nepal’s health system has experience with maintaining a cold chain for other campaigns.
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-diaspora-hit-by-covid-surge/">Nepali diaspora hit by Covid surge</a>, Nepali Times
Despite recent breakthroughs in trials (see box) public health experts stress the importance of exploring vaccine supply options closer to home. As of now, 11 vaccines developed in several parts of the world are in the third phase of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/countries-cooperating-to-find-covid-19-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clinical trials</a> with many of them expected to be as effective.
Neighbouring China and India are at the forefront. And Nepal should have begun its ‘vaccine diplomacy’ much before this to secure its supply of shots.
There is also the uncertainty of vaccine efficacy depending on the strain: the same vaccine could be highly effective against people in the West but not as much in South Asia where people suffer from chronic malnutrition and multiple infections.
“For a working vaccine to be made within a year is an amazing victory for science but we also need to know that these vaccines are designed for their population. So I’d want to know more about the vaccines in India and China,” says Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “Particularly China, as it was where the pandemic started but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-nepal-can-learn-from-china-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has since controlled it effectively</a> unlike rest of the world.”
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-the-chloroquine-scam/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Basnyat</a> of the Patan Academy of Health Sciences agrees. He says: “China looks at the reality in our backyard. So a more suitable vaccine for us could come from the Chinese, particularly because they have a track record of having developed better vaccine for this part of the world.”
Indeed, the JEVAX made by the researchers in Chengdu is now the most widely used jab against Japanese Encephalitis because it’s more cost effective compared to its western vaccines.
Nepal Health Research Council is once again considering conducting Phase III clinical trial of Coronavac by China’s Sinovac Biotech after an initial divided opinion over its safety. The vaccine has shown quick immune response in mid-stage trials in South America and parts of Asia.
In India, The Serum Institute has anticipated demand by already manufacturing 40 million doses of AstraZeneca’s potential Covid-19 vaccine. It will also soon manufacture Novavax.
Similarly, researchers at the Indian Institute of Science have designed a protein-based heat-tolerant vaccine that can stay stable for a month at 37°C, and could endure temperatures as high as 100°C if freeze dried, a feature that could be a game changer for mass vaccination campaigns in lower and middle income countries in Asia and Africa.
The other factor to consider will be the duration of the immunity after each vaccine shot, as well reinfection groups and if antibodies developed in the first episode helps fight the mutated forms of the virus.
With Covid-19 crisis continuing to spread rapidly across Nepal and at 10 fatalities per million population (same as Pakistan and much higher than China’s 3), it is not too early to start dialogue with Gavi, the vaccine alliance, COVAX and agencies like the World Bank and World Health Organisation to help procure the most cost effective approach to vaccines most suitable to Nepal’s conditions.
Alternatively, many pharmaceutical companies will want to play the field in order to boost their profile. In fact, embassies and foreign donors are already hard at work pushing for trails and deals.
“There is bound to be vaccine politics and it will mostly likely be ugly,” predicts Sher Bahadur Pun of the Health Ministry. “But we should not lose track of two things: efficacy of the vaccine against our population and its economic viability. If we do that we should be on the right path, more or less.”
In all this excitement, Nepal’s health authorities must also keep an eye on the plight of infected people and many more to come as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">they wait for a vaccine</a>. The results of current treatment regimens ranging from plasma therapy to administering Remdesivir have been patchy. And as scientists study the long-term impact of Covid-19 on patients even after they recover, making an optimal use of resources becomes even more significant.
So far, the government has been faulted for squandering months of lockdown, not carrying out sufficient tests and contact tracing, not increasing hospital capacity and equipment, and letting the people fend for themselves.  
The result is that Nepal is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heat-map-of-nepals-covid-19-hotspots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suffering a sustained surge</a>, with more than 1,400 new cases a day, over 60% of them in Kathmandu Valley alone and a quarter of those tested coming out positive. There is also a surge in symptomatic patients, even among those without pre-existing conditions, and those sick enough to require ICU and ventilator.
Even when the government does act, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coronavirus-coordination-committee-doesnt-coordinate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">priorities seem to be misplaced</a>. For instance, health experts say the emphasis in the past months should have been on high flow oxygen therapy or High Dependency Units rather than Intensive Care Units in hospitals.
“It would have been cheaper, it does not require highly trained staff or sophisticated equipment, and it would have freed up the ICUs for the really critical patients,” adds Pun, who himself is at the Health Ministry, and this possibly means his advice is not being taken.
Insiders say it will likely take upwards of six months for the first vaccines to arrive in Nepal, and there will be a rush by the rich, the powerful and those with political connections to get their shots. The marginalised, poor, those in remote areas will be the last to get their injections, unless the government has fair and effective rules in place and implements them.
Till then, there is little else to do than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/silver-linings-in-the-covid-cloud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">keep masking up this winter, avoid large gatherings, keep distance and wash hands regularly</a>.
Says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Basnyat</a>: “The mask is the best vaccine we have at the moment. These safety measures have largely reduced hospitalisation due to other infections in 2020, masks in particular will also protect us from winter pollution in the coming months.”<h2>The Vaccine Race</h2>The global resurgence of Covid-19 in the northern winter has coincided with breaking news every day of successful new vaccine trials.First the Russians announced a vaccine in September that is 92% potent against SARS-CoV-2.  Last week Pfizer unveiled a 90% effective vaccine, which on Wednesday was upgraded to 95% efficacy without side effects. Moderna was next with an efficacy of 95%, and not needing extreme refrigeration. More companies in China, India and Europe are conducting their own trials.Public health experts have hailed the developments, but warn that vaccines will not be universally available till late 2021 and even so will not provide full protection. They suggest continuing with masking up, keeping distance and avoiding crowded indoor places.Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech’s mRNA-based vaccine came out declaring over 90% effectiveness but only at -70°C ultra cold chain which will be a challenge even for countries with the best health facilities in the world.Massachusetts-based Moderna’s RNA shot has 94.5% efficacy, seems to also prevent severe infections and remains stable in medical and home refrigerators for up to 30 days, in freezers (-20°C) for up to six months, and at room temperature for up to 12 hours.Even so, poorer countries are unlikely to get coronavirus vaccine any time soon. Even the biggest pharmaceutical multinationals can only manufacture a limited quantity of the vaccine over the next year.Pfizer has capped its production at 1.4 billion for 2021, 80% of which has already been booked through advance purchase agreement by the US, UK, EU, Canada and Japan. Moderna expects to manufacture 20 million doses this year and up to one billion in 2021.On the other hand, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russian’s Sputnik V</a> has been overshadowed by new developments, and due to lack of sufficient data to back up its claim of 92% efficacy. Although geopolitical rivalry with the West has given it negative publicity, some health agencies have not ruled it out.

When will Nepal’s Covid vaccine turn come?

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”