Second thoughts about federalism

Om Astha Rai

It seems that Nepalis are having second thoughts about most of the key political issues like federalism, secularism and identity.

A nationwide public opinion poll by Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA) reveals that only around one fourth of Nepalis (26%) support federalism but they too are against ethnicity-based federalism. And, a majority of these pro-federalism Nepalis (53%) say geography must be the basis for creating federal units. Only 12 % say ethnicity should be basis of federalism and another 9% say identity and viability need to be looked into while carving federal units.

The IDA poll report on Nepal's Contemporary Political Situation (NCPC), which was published on Sunday, reaffirms most of the findings of the recent Himalmedia survey. In the Himalmedia survey-2014, as many as 49 % respondents had said no to federalism in Nepal.

While the Himalmedia survey had only 1,019 respondents of Kathmandu Valley, the IDA interviewed 3,000 respondents across the country. Yet, the findings of both these surveys are same.

One of the most surprising findings of the IDA poll is that only 54 % people say they have heard about federalism. However, Sudhindra Sharma, co-author of the NCPC report, argues that it should not be interpreted as the rest have not heard about federalism. "They might have," says he. "But, they do not want to talk about federalism as it has now become a very sensitive socio-political issue."

The IDA poll suggests people are clearly having second thoughts about secularism. In its last seven polls, the IDA has always asked people about secularism and this time around only 22 % people have supported secularism. On the contrary, percentage of people supporting a Hindu sate has risen to 71 – highest ever in the last seven IDA polls. In the years after the April Uprising-2006, percentage of people supporting a Hindu nation started declining and reached as low as 55. And percentage of people favoring secularism reached as high as 39.

"Disaggregating of data shows that increasingly more Hindus are now voicing against secularism," says Sharma. "In the years after the April Uprising, a sizable percentage of Hindus supported secularism."

People's perception is changing not only about federalism and secularism but also the way they prefer to identify themselves. In 2007, 41 % respondents preferred to identify themselves not 'only as Nepalis' but also by their respective castes and ethnicities. In this year's poll, this percentage has declined to 27 and an overwhelming majority of respondents (70%) preferred to identify themselves 'only as Nepalis'.

"In the wake of the Madhes Movement, percentage of people identifying themselves by their castes and ethnicities was very high," says Sharma. "That notion seems to have waned now."

Like the Himalmedia survey, the IDA poll shows how political parties are detached from concerns of common people.

Political parties are wrangling over the disputed issues of the new constitution but common people are most concerned about their own everyday problems. In the IDA poll, unemployment (39%), poverty (35%) and inflation (24%) emerged as the top three pressing problems of people. In the Himalmedia survey, inflation (64%), unemployment (42%) and lack of daily essentials (38%) were the top three pressing problems. In both polls, delay in writing the new constitution did not concern most Nepalis.

The IDA poll also reinforces the finding of the Himalmedia survey that the UCPN (Maoist) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal is losing popularity. In popularity rating, Dahal scored 60 % in 2007. He now scores just 40 %, which is less than the score of every other key politician. His rating is slightly better than just former King Gyanendra Shah (38%), whose popularity is gradually increasing since 2007.

"This time, we measured popularity of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too," says Sharma. "And we were surprised to find that Modi is more popular than all Nepali politicians." Modi, who wooed Nepalis by speaking in Nepali language in Nepal's parliament last year, has scored 68. Only Nepali politician who comes close to Modi is President Ram Baran Yadav (61).