Kunda Dixit
There were indications on Thursday that a ‘coup’ attempt by the NC to bring down the UML-UCPN(M) coalition, oust Prime Minister K P Oli, and replace him with Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal had been foiled.
UML Vice-chairman Bam Dev Gautam went to meet Dahal at his home early Thursday morning and appears to have convinced him that Oli was ready to hand over the premiership to him if he waited till after the budget is presented on 28 May. Later, when a delegation from the NC went to meet Dahal the Maoist leader reportedly thanked them for their offer, but that he’d have to decline for now.
What this means is that the NC’s attempt to register a vote of no confidence this week and form a government with the Maoists and the support of Madhesi parties has not been successful. But it has firmly established the UCPN(M) as a kingmaker party since Dahal would be the next prime minister no matter which side won.
The NC said the Oli-led coalition had been unsuccessful in ensuring earthquake relief delivery, governance, resolving the Madhes crisis and curbing the black market. It proposed Dahal as prime minister in a new coalition that would include the NC. The UML seems to have been successful in convincing Dahal that it would not press for the investigation of wartime atrocities.
As things stand now, the parties in the present coalition will remain the same, but there will be a new prime minister (probably Dahal) and a new ministerial lineup after the budget is passed.
The NC with 207 seats would have had the numbers in the 597-member House to muster the 299 votes to win a no confidence if the Maoists joined in with 83 seats. Dahal had been warning the UML that he was getting offers from the NC to be prime minister if he brought his party to join its coalition.
PM Oli and the UML were sufficiently alarmed to go into damage control mode and sent Bamdev Gautam to try to talk Dahal out of it. Gautam appears to have succeeded in convincing Dahal to let the present government pass the budget, retain the present coalition and let a Dahal-led government implement the budget.
The talk of regime change had stated soon after NC leader retuned from New Delhi last month, but it was clear from the beginning that the NC did not have the numbers by itself to bring down the UML coalition – they would have needed the Maoists on their side.