PICS: PRADEEP SHRESTHA

The 'resort series' of political talks on power sharing and the peace process have yielded nothing beyond a pointless four-point press release on agreeing to disagree, with the dubious promise of more of the same come 15 November. The mainstream media, at least to begin with, did attempt to encourage everyone watching (and participating) by positing the talks as important in reducing the trust deficit. But this was of little comfort in the end.

The four options tabled by the Maoists seem to be non-options meant for the consumption of those who would like to believe the ex-rebels are actually being constructive and flexible. The first two, that of forming governments led either by the Maoists or some NC/UML/Rest-of-Nepal configuration, were redundant propositions to make in the absence of any change in the positions of the negotiating parties. The impracticality of a rotating government was laughable, and the idea of a Presidium has no place in a democracy, stuck as we may be. The Maoists will not entertain the possibility of moving on the peace process without being allowed to lead the government, the NC will not let the Maoists lead the government without some movement on the peace process, and the UML, as ever, is thrashing about in the middle.

So it does seem that we are stuck. Coming into the last week of the special budget, however, the exigencies created by the imminent lack of salaries (rather than national economic crisis) may actually force the Maoists to give ground. It's only logical for the government to hold back payments to cantonments to start with, then stop paying the salaries of CA members (most of whom are, of course, Maoists). So in effect the parties have less than a week to hammer out an agreement on what form of budget to announce, and how.

For now, it seems unlikely that the CA session will be prorogued to introduce the budget through a special ordinance. The business community will seek to pressure the government, but until the public feels the heat, May rallies may be a while away (notwithstanding the debacle surrounding tickets for athletes travelling to the Asian Games in China, due to a lack of funds and ethics). It's in the interest of the Maoists as much as anyone else to allow the budget to go through, so to retain their credibility in the run-up to their Gorkha plenum by not allowing a caretaker government to present a full budget, they will have to push for a real government.

At which point it makes sense to look at the possibility of a Maoist-led government once more. Given their record in not fulfilling promises made vis-à-vis the peace process, in or out of power, it won't be enough for Ram Chandra Poudel to withdraw his candidacy to allow for government formation, just as Madhav Nepal's resignation wasn't. The onus remains on the UCPN(Maoist) to come up with a credible time-bound program to delink itself from its military wings definitively. This program has to be good enough to convince the NC and the UML, who should then be willing to support the formation of a Maoist-led government. Easier said than done, but for now there are no other viable options.

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