High tech firms are power hungry, and the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/those-who-stay">climate crisis</a> is driving them to seek <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon">renewable sources of energy</a>. Nepal’s surplus electricity generation capacity coincides with this surge in global demand to power generative AI data centres. Data centres have become major drivers of electricity demand globally in the last two years, but the lack of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-electric-transport-future-is-here">clean energy</a> remains a major hurdle to expansion. Along with coverage area and number of racks, a key parameter to measure use of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/tech-and-transition-in-nepal">information technology </a>in each country is the amount of power they use1 for data centres. For example, the US currently uses 50MW of data centres per million people compared to just 1MW in India. In Nepal, investment in data centres have just begun. About 1.5% of global electricity is currently going to power data centres and data transmission. Improvements in IT hardware, efficient cooling methods, and gains from the shift to efficient cloud and hyperscale data centres have allowed growth in energy demand to remain small even as data centre services have grown significantly since 2010. After 2022 this picture has begun to break down due to the exponential growth in power requirements for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-in-the-decade-of-ai">AI </a>which far exceeds accompanying gains in energy efficiency.&nbsp; The growth of AI applications was made possible by breakthroughs in Deep Neural Network models and hardware to run them, enabling image recognition and generation, natural language processing and many other previously<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/it-is-all-about-it-in-nepal,3887"> ‘high-compute applications’</a> which required a lot of computational power. These advances laid the groundwork for large language models such as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/chatgpt-news-about-nepal">GPT</a>-4o (OpenAI), Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google), Llama-3 (Meta/Facebook), Grok (xAI) among others. The growth of large language models and generative AI has changed the role of data centres from managing content, data storage and data processing to training large AI models and running AI inference to serve user applications from those models. But training <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-bhasa-on-google-translate">AI models</a> is compute-intensive, and requires high-powered hardware. Similarly, AI inference, which involves using trained models to make predictions based on new data, also demands significant energy due to the large and increasing number of user applications served by AI models. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, growth in investment into generative AI is expected to push data-centre electricity use by 4-10 times from current levels by 2030. Companies such as Google and Microsoft are already consuming as much electricity as The Netherlands. Many of the largest companies have also made ‘net-zero’ commitments, to generate no net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which they are struggling to uphold due to this unexpected increase in energy demand to power data centres.Big tech is therefore sourcing power from all the clean energy sources they can find: wind, solar and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">hydropower</a>. They have even invested in nuclear power plants to power AI data centres. As demand rises, companies will be looking for new geographies with abundant clean energy. Could this new reality present an opportunity for Nepal to market its surplus clean energy from hydropower and solar? The country could promote itself as a destination for data centres, as Bhutan is doing with its Gelephu Mindfulness City. Nepal’s data infrastructure, even including NEA and Ncell Axiata data centres, is not well developed. &nbsp;The recently announced partnership between the Chaudhary Group’s BLC Holdings, and India’s Yotta Data Services to build Nepal’s first supercloud 4MW data centre in Ramkot could pave the way for private sector investment into data centres in Nepal.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250120140144_dae5f9c304943d4efb156a9930b0ca1894b2f6b915abeb6c30d510e0f246e4a5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250120140144_dae5f9c304943d4efb156a9930b0ca1894b2f6b915abeb6c30d510e0f246e4a5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1125" loading="lazy" alt="NEA"> <figcaption>Distribution System Control and Data Centre of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) in Siuchatar in Kathmandu. Photo: SONIA AWALE</figcaption> </figure>  Yotta already runs some of the largest hyperscale data centres in Mumbai and Delhi, and this investment could allow the company to be the provider of digital services in the Subcontinent’s high growth IT sector. To catch up with per capita IT services at the level of India, Nepal would need seven more Ramkot-sized data centres using about 30MW of power. With its readily available clean energy and proximity to large population centres in Northern India and Bangladesh, Nepal could in theory provide the compute infrastructure necessary to power the future AI training and inference services for local applications and markets.&nbsp; To provide IT services at the level that the US population currently consumes, Nepal would need 1,500MW of power just to power data centres for its own needs. While this is unlikely to happen anytime soon, Nepal could opportunistically provide data centre services for the upcoming AI needs of some of the 500 million people living in the Ganges basin. India is already a regional powerhouse in data centres and has about 1,600MW of capacity, and generative AI is estimated to push computational requirements with power needs expected to grow between 25-30% each year through to 2030. With the right investment climate, and the necessary investment into fibre optic infrastructure and IT parks, Nepal could leverage its plentiful power supply advantage to offer locations for a portion of this investment.&nbsp; This would provide a much needed boost to Nepal’s ongoing efforts to establish itself as a technology hub and provide jobs to the 15,000 IT professionals that are being trained in the country each year. Data centres are one part of a larger technology ecosystem. AI model training and maintenance require skilled expertise in every industry from finance, to train fraud detection models, to healthcare, to label X-ray and MRI images and test results and diagnostic data to build intelligent medical tools, and to the legal sector, to supervise generated contract documents. NTC’s recently installed XGPON network standard that can deliver up to 10 Gbps downstream speed and 2.5 Gbps upstream does provide the basic level of connectivity needed for AI applications, but it is only available in Kathmandu and needs to be expanded to other urban centres. Nepal’s investment climate for private companies remains far from ideal, and government regulations need to be relaxed to allow global companies and non-resident Nepalis to bring in investment to take full advantage of this new <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/digital-connectivity">digital infrastructure</a>. Amrit R Pant contributed with AI expertise while writing the article. Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal.

Bikash Pandey

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People Power

Nepal as an AI power bank

As a micro-hydro engineer working in rural Nepal in the mid-1980’s, I struggled to find money to build power plants that could meet the energy demand along the Everest and Annapurna trekking trails. Communities in Lukla, Namche, Jomsom and Ghandruk needed energy to meet basic needs of trekkers, and provide value-added services for additional income. Tourists were prepared to pay for hot showers, cold beer, clean beds, and a varied menu. But resource limitation meant there were fewer and smaller power plants. The national electricity grid was then limited to urban areas and the country’s electrification rate was low and stayed below 20%. The Nepal Electricity Corporation (NEC) , the predecessor of NEA, had constructed a dozen small hydro projects for remote districts with no immediate prospects of being supplied by the grid.&nbsp; Some of these were in tourist areas but were woefully inadequate to supply more than domestic lighting load. The 240 kW Chokhopani small hydropower project, commissioned by NEC in 1984, to supply the Thak Khola region of Mustang, was overloaded within a couple of years of its construction after tourist lodges in Tukuche, Marpha, and Jomsom began plugging in electric space heaters and hot plates. Following the 1984 delicensing of generation from power plants of less than 100kW capacity, Nepal saw a dramatic surge in interest from rural communities to invest in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/micro-hydro-in-nepal-affected-by-the-spread-of-national-grid" target="_blank">micro-hydropower</a>. While smaller systems could meet the needs for power for home lighting and tv sets in non-tourist areas, communities along tourist trails wanted larger power plants to cook and heat with electricity and run refrigerators. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/municipalities-want-to-manage-annapurna" target="_blank">Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP)</a> provided a grant to cover 70% of the cost of the 50kW Ghandruk project. Completed in 1990, it was designed to supply 250 households and 20 hotels. However, to make sure there was sufficient power to connect the whole community, each hotel was limited to a subscription of one kW of power — not enough to meet cooking needs.&nbsp; The hotels were encouraged to turn on immersion water heaters at night to speed up cooking in the morning. Recognising that micro-hydropower projects could only partially supply their energy needs, ACAP also helped hotels install solar hot water systems for showers and import LPG for cooking. The 600kW Thame project in the Everest region was completed in 1995 with a grant from the Austrian government to supply 629 homes and tourism businesses of Namche Bazar, Khumjung and Thame. For the first time in Nepal, it was able to demonstrate how much value an abundant supply of electricity could add to mountain tourism. Electricity reduced pressure on scarce, high altitude biomass and provided an alternative for families that were caught between strict rules prohibiting firewood collection from the Sagarmatha National Park, and the need of increasing numbers of trekkers, guides, and porters.&nbsp; Electricity was used in place of firewood not only by hotels and cafes, but also in the kitchens of 60% of the households. Electricity from the Thame power plant allows Namche Bazar today to meet the fuel needs of more than 40,000 trekkers a year, double the annual visitors when it was built 30 years ago. The electricity supply also opened up new livelihood opportunities. Stores selling handicrafts and climbing gear, tea shops, pubs, restaurants, lodges, laundromats, cyber cafes, jacuzzi, water treatment and bottling plants, and three electricity-powered bakeries, and pizzeries all came up.&nbsp; Another early benefit from Namche’s electrification was the improvement in water supply because it could now be pumped up from a spring to a reservoir with slow-sand filtration at the top of the village. Piped water supply from the reservoir and a sewage system, also managed by the power utility, Khumbu Bijuli Company, allowed hotels to offer rooms with attached bathrooms with hot showers and charge significantly higher for rooms.&nbsp; Other electricity-enabled infrastructure include cell phone towers, of which Namche has two, and the potential for cable cars to take visitors to viewpoints and ropeways to transport goods.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124101136_12b9599800b353fbc6fbefe1a8b69f2d83bb09c0b19e47d664edb9de3f9ea6d3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20241124101136_12b9599800b353fbc6fbefe1a8b69f2d83bb09c0b19e47d664edb9de3f9ea6d3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2039" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal can level up tourism with electricity NT"> </figure>  Since the earliest days of trekking tourism, the environmental carrying capacity of the local ecosystem has been limited by the availability of energy. Without access to commercial energy from the outside, the number of trekkers, and their accompanying support teams, that any region can host depends on the rate at which trees can regenerate there.&nbsp; High altitude areas like the Khumbu face a natural limit based on the slow rates at which trees can grow. Arid trans-Himalayan regions like Upper Mustang and Dolpo can sustainably harvest even less biomass. The government continues to restrict tourism areas in the trans-Himalaya, with fragile ecosystems, requiring foreign visitors to pay for permits.&nbsp; Trekking groups are required to carry their own fuel to avoid strain on the local ecosystem. In Upper Mustang the number of visitors is limited to 1,000 annually and requires each visitor to pay a $500 fee for a ten day visit. Other restricted areas include border communities in Humla, Gorkha, Dolpo, Manang, and Manaslu. Since then, Nepal’s electricity generation landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation. The country currently has a surplus from hydropower and solar energy. This is expected to keep growing for the foreseeable future. Harnessing this electricity to boost mountain tourism can enhance local livelihoods and reduce outmigration of youth. The tourism sector employs 1 million people and contributes 8% to Nepal’s GDP. In comparison, more than 3.5 million Nepalis work abroad and their remittances make up 27% of GDP. Growth in the tourism sector could significantly expand employment opportunities at home.&nbsp; Namche Bazar is proof that electricity can take mountain tourism to the next level both by increasing the carrying capacity of high Himalayan regions by substituting for biomass fuel, and increasing employment through value-added services and infrastructure development.&nbsp; Electrifying the country’s tourism sector has the potential to significantly increase its contribution to the economy, and take it closer to another tourism-powered South Asian country, the Maldives, where tourism’s share of the economy is 60%.&nbsp; Given that Nepal’s electricity is from renewable resources, any tourism it powers can also be marketed as producing minimal greenhouse gases. If tourists could be transported in electric vehicles to and from the airport and to the roadhead leading to their trekking destinations, it would further lower emissions. This is an additional selling point at a time when many environmentally conscious tourists are looking to lower their carbon footprint. The NEA can play an important role by increasing the supply, capacity, and reliability of electricity along existing, popular trekking trails. The extension of the national grid to Tilicho Base Camp last week is the right step. Even though the country’s electrification rate has now reached 99%, supply challenges remain. The task is made easier for NEA since practically all <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/decentralising-power-in-nepal" target="_blank">regions with tourism potential have hydropower projects</a> either operating or under construction within their own districts. This makes it much easier to ensure a reliable supply with good voltage. In the Annapurna region, electricity has reached nearly all communities with Ghandruk and Jomsom connected to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-electricity-demand-soars" target="_blank">national grid</a> in 2017 and 2018 respectively. However, without improved reliability of supply, tourism enterprises will continue to use firewood and imported LPG for cooking.&nbsp; In light of the damage caused by the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood" target="_blank">glacial lake outburst flood that hit Thame in August</a>, the power supply for Namche and the region would be much more resilient if it was connected to the national grid. NEA also needs to extend transmission lines to Upper Mustang and other restricted areas that aspire to host higher tourist numbers than they are currently allowed.&nbsp; Investment in extending power supply along the 16 districts traversed by the Great Himalayan Trail would accelerate the development of green and sustainable tourism in those areas. For other tourism sites where NEA does not plan to extend the grid in the next five years, micro-hydro and solar energy will remain important solutions.&nbsp; The two 900 kW mini-hydro projects under construction to supply the villages of Ama Dablam and Monjo, both in the Everest region, are good examples of the support the <a href="http://www.aepc.gov.np/" target="_blank">Alternative Energy Promotion Centre </a>needs to continue to provide for off-grid power to support the tourism sector. Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal.

Nepal can level up tourism with electricity

Nepal’s national electricity grid is supplied with power from a remarkably decentralised array of 162 hydropower projects and 14 solar photovoltaic schemes spread across 43 districts, supplying power over the grid to 30 million people.
Another 249 hydropower projects and 14 solar projects are at different stages of construction, positioning 11 new districts to contribute power to the grid by 2030. Six of the country’s seven provinces generate hydropower as their main energy source, while Madhes Province generates solar energy.&nbsp;
While NEA (Nepal Electricity Authority) and its subsidiaries own and operate 20 generation stations, the remaining are owned and operated by Independent Power Producers (IPP). All but two of the IPPs are Nepali companies that have successfully mobilised over $2 billion in investment.
This investment has been spread widely across the country. Eleven districts generate more than 100MW each with Dolakha, Lamjung, Solukhumbu, and Ramechhap each exceeding 200MW (map). The average size of hydropower projects on Nepal’s grid is 15.5MW, while the average solar project is 4.2MW.
The average size of projects under construction is larger -- 39.5MW for hydro and 6.9MW for solar respectively.&nbsp;
For most hill and mountain districts, hydropower is easily the largest investment, private or public, in their history. &nbsp;
This decentralised power generation model is a relatively recent development for Nepal. In 1995 when the World Bank withdrew (adjoining article) its planned investment from the 201MW Arun III project, NEA had not envisioned the entry of the private sector. In fact, its published strategy was to mobilise international aid for hydropower projects larger than Arun III.
The well-known cancellation of Arun III in 1995 and the availability of alternative models led to Nepal's decentralised power development. It matters that this distributed generation and storage of electricity is close to the point of use.
Centralised power stations have been the norm for industrialised and emerging economies to achieve rapid and cheap electrification, taking advantage of economies of scale of large power plants.
Also in Nepal, when its vast hydropower potential was first quantified in the 1960s, plans were drawn up for mega hydropower projects with reservoirs such as Karnali, Kosi, and Pancheswar. None of these could be realised, however, due to lack of financing.&nbsp;
Donor funds could never be aggregated at the scale needed for the investments required, and the country was not attractive to the international private sector. Nepal opted not to invite India to construct its large hydropower projects to supply the Indian market the way Bhutan did.
It took the country 40 years to find its way -- generation led by private domestic investment supplemented by public sector involvement by the NEA.&nbsp;
The cancellation of Arun III resulted in the government signing expensive dollar-denominated power purchase agreements (PPA) with international producers like Khimti (60MW) and Bhote Kosi (45MW) to partially make up for the shortfall. These were against the wishes of NEA management.&nbsp;
It was in reaction to these expensive PPAs that engineers at NEA received permission to develop Chilime (20MW) with rupee-denominated PPA and the government at the time announced a standard tariff in NPR for power generated by IPPs.&nbsp;
Once NEA showed its willingness to sign these PPAs, hundreds of companies sprang up to apply for licenses to survey and construct small hydropower plants throughout the country.
Decentralised power development contributes to construction jobs and infrastructure investment, especially in remote districts where many of the best hydropower sites are located.&nbsp;
Construction of an electricity generation station provides at one go the two most important infrastructure any district needs to generate jobs — power and a road.&nbsp;
Decentralised generation provides energy security to load centres throughout the country since damage to power plants in one part of the country need not affect other areas that have their own generation. It also reduces transmission losses as large amounts of power do not have to be transported from one end of the country to another.
Nepal’s strategy of decentralised power development is coming to maturity in the era of the climate crisis, when the global response has been a surge in renewable energy investments and grids all over the world pushing to become decentralised.&nbsp;
Landslides, flooding and glacial lake outburst floods have always posed risks to infrastructure projects in the Himalaya, and climate breakdown has increased this risk with the severity and frequency of cloud bursts.&nbsp;
The 2024 monsoon has been particularly bad, temporarily shutting down NEA’s 456MW Upper Tamakosi, 60MW Upper Trisuli 3A, 40MW Chameliya, and 10MW Sunkosi projects,&nbsp;
It also downed the 36MW Balefi, 20MW Lower Modi, 18MW Middle Modi, and 7.5 MW Indrawati III operated by IPPs.
Nonetheless, there has not been any increase in load shedding because power plants across other river basins continued to generate without interruption.&nbsp;
Having power plants spread across two thirds of the country rather than concentrated in a few river valleys distributes the risk to the country’s entire power supply.&nbsp;
Adding solar energy to the generation mix diversifies the types of renewable energy available and contributes to power in the winter months. It also makes the grid more secure during periods of drought when hydropower production declines.&nbsp;
Solar energy is a perfect complement to hydro since by definition its production will peak during periods with low rainfall.
Distributed generation is shaping up to be an important component of Nepal’s decentralised energy system. This increases energy security to users and reduces transmission losses.
The roughly 10MW of rooftop solar PV systems that have been installed in the past year by hotels, factories, medical colleges and flour mills to reduce their electricity bills is an example of how it is catching on.
Decentralised and distributed generation do have additional costs in the need for more extensive power networks. Extending high voltage transmission lines to evacuate power from smaller local projects adds cost.&nbsp;
However, every power plant and the transmission line to access it has aided Nepal in accelerating electrification and strengthening power infrastructure to the district where it is located.
As networks become more complex, utility-scale battery storage, and the availability of distributed storage in electric vehicles, the grid needs to be made smarter to better manage the tens of thousands of generation and storage points Nepal is likely to have in the coming years. &nbsp;
Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his new regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal. &nbsp;

Decentralising power in Nepal

Nepal has had an impressive growth in hydropower development over the past decade from 734MW in 2014 to a combined capacity of 2,625MW from solar and hydropower stations, with 95% of households connected to the grid. Investment to the tune of $5 billion, predominantly in domestic NPR, is estimated to have gone into new generation projects in this time to complete construction and invest in some 8,000MW of new power plants that are at various stages of design and construction. It is certainly reassuring to a population still suffering PTSD from years of brutal load-shedding to realise that Nepal is headed for long term power surplus, with prospects in 2024 for the first time to export more power than import from India, if the monsoon cooperates. One important question in a lot of people’s minds, however, is how Nepal’s generation of clean energy compares with the fossil fuel Nepal continues to import at an annual cost of almost $3 billion, and growing. Are we anywhere close to generating the hydropower and solar energy needed to replace the petroleum fuel that Nepal imports? At first glance it looks like the gap is discouragingly large. NEA sold just over 10 billion kWh or 10 TWh of electricity in 2023. In the same year, all the petroleum-based fuels the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) imported had a total energy content of 40TWh. It would seem that NEA and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) would need to complete construction of the full pipeline of 8,000MW on top of what they are already generating to match even the petroleum fuel we use today. Fortunately, electricity can be used more efficiently than fossil fuels. An LPG stove has a thermal efficiency of around 50%, reflecting the percentage of heat from burning the mix of propane and butane that is transferred to the pot. The rest goes into heating the burner, the counter-top, and the rest of the kitchen. An induction cooker on the other hand is able to transfer around 90% of the energy directly to the pot since the cooking surface does not even get hot itself. So, cooking with electricity can be accomplished with 45% less energy compared to LPG with the use of an efficient appliance.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240802120856_d0349977d5fb14944e7897b9bd8bad605348f6d9351fcc70a2e6cc7a178bc8dc.webp" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240802120856_d0349977d5fb14944e7897b9bd8bad605348f6d9351fcc70a2e6cc7a178bc8dc" data-rendition-name="original" width="992" height="1245" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal turns on the electric switch NT"> <figcaption>INDUCTION STOVES: 90% of the energy in induction stoves is transferred directly to the pot, so cooking with electricity uses 45% less energy compared to LPG. PHOTO: CLIMATE AND CLEAN AIR COALITION</figcaption> </figure>  The end-use efficiency advantage is even more impressive when it comes to transportation. A petrol burning internal combustion engine converts only 20% of the energy the fuel produces into motion. The remaining 80% of the energy content of the petrol is lost as heat in the engine, requiring a radiator to keep the engine from overheating. An electric vehicle on the other hand uses high efficiency motors that have conversion efficiencies in the range of 80-85%. Even with the 20% ‘round trip’ losses in charging and discharging the battery, an EV uses less than a third of the energy to drive a kilometre than an equivalent petroleum fuel vehicle does. Since close to 95% of the petroleum fuel imported into Nepal is used to meet either road transportation or cooking needs, it is very encouraging that appliances already exist in the market for Nepal to transition away from petroleum fuel. Similar efficiencies exist for switching away from diesel irrigation to electric pumps and for a range of industrial processes to switch from using different fossil fuels to electricity. For the consumer to switch over to electric cooking and electricity-fueled transportation, the relative prices of each energy type are important, along with the improved efficiency. Here too the news is promising: NEA’s applicable domestic electricity tariff for users wanting to cook with electricity for cooking or charging EVs at home is a maximum of Rs11 per kWh. This compares with Rs18.5 per kWh of petrol and Rs9.83 per kWh of LPG. Once the thermal efficiency is taken into account, however, the effective price of petrol and LPG go up to Rs55.50 and Rs17.87 respectively for driving the same distance or cooking the same volume of food as one kWh of electricity. Two final barriers must be removed before consumers will be able to make the switch to efficient electric vehicles and cooking appliances. First: NEA must invest in strengthening transmission and distribution networks. It is not enough for there to be sufficient hydropower and solar energy generated if the power lines and transformers are not sufficiently sized to distribute the additional electricity needed for switching to electricity. Second: end-users must be able to afford EVs and cooking appliances. The government and banks have an important role to play in making this transition happen. The government needs to appreciate the tradeoff: provide tax incentives for people to purchase EVs and high efficiency electric appliances that can replace petroleum. Banks need to provide financing for users to be able to purchase EVs and appliances and pay for them from the savings in fuel. The good news is Nepal is very close to generating enough electricity to replace petroleum imports. Making up for 40TWh of petroleum fuel will likely require less than 20TWh of electricity. Extrapolating from the rate of growth of hydropower and solar generation over the past decade, Nepal could have sufficient clean energy projects online to be generating 30TWh as early as 2028. &nbsp; Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his new regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal.

Nepal turns on the electric switch

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan