Last year, an audio clip of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) vice-president Swarnim Wagle surfaced on Facebook in which the potential future finance minister appeared to be having a private conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi about Nepal-India border issues.&nbsp; The clip racked up 1.5 million views. It jumped through Viber family groups without caption or context, the way political gossip always does in Nepal. By the time Wagle walked into the Cyber Bureau office in Bhotahiti to file a complaint and confirm the audio was fabricated using AI, the clip had already done what it was designed to do. This is the problem with fake AI videos — the damage is not in the content, but the damage is in the lag between the share and the correction. Some videos are partisan, but so funny that millions share it: like the one of K P Oli running away carrying a huge bell while his rival Balendra Shah chases him to possess his election symbol. Google ‘how to detect AI videos’, and there is a tidy checklist. Look for jerky motion. Count the fingers in the hand. Check if the eye blinking looks unnatural. Inspect the lighting. That advice made sense two years ago, it does not anymore.&nbsp; On TikTok, the account ‘AI Nepal’ recently posted an entirely AI-generated video of a young Nepali living abroad on a video call with his parents and sister, encouraging them to vote. The footage looked like any other family video call. No glitchy fingers. No uncanny valley. No visual tell whatsoever.&nbsp; The tech industry’s response to hyper-realistic AI generated videos has been cryptographic watermarks and metadata trails embedded in files, solutions that require software to detect and that no<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-ai-generated-election"> voter scrolling through their feed </a>eight days before the 5 March election will ever use.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260227100240_4e043a24f845bdda3b3637e24a6382817dba935b1ac13606c1e47cc174faaf2a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260227100240_4e043a24f845bdda3b3637e24a6382817dba935b1ac13606c1e47cc174faaf2a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="4053" loading="lazy" alt="AI generated election images NT"> </figure>  RED FLAGS So, forget the checklist. The fakes now pass the eye test. What has not changed is the ecosystem around them. Here are a few things to look out for this election cycle. -Look at the source, not the spectacle.&nbsp; -Before you look at the content of a video, look at who posted it.&nbsp; -What does this account usually share?&nbsp; If a profile known for uploading grainy, shaky smartphone footage from political rallies suddenly drops a cinematic, flawlessly lit clip of a private scandal, that gap between the account’s history and the production quality is the first red flag.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260227100240_91e3ed1f22f37b92ec3986feee8f5ae24943efe8a0890b382fc32c98d005b05f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260227100240_91e3ed1f22f37b92ec3986feee8f5ae24943efe8a0890b382fc32c98d005b05f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="2226" loading="lazy" alt="AI generated election images NT"> </figure>  Is the profile tied to a verifiable person, or is it a faceless account that appeared three weeks ago and posts exclusively about one candidate?&nbsp; In Nepal’s current election cycle, AI-generated images of Nepali Congress (NC) president Gagan Thapa being chased away by crowds were traced back to exactly these kinds of disposable accounts.&nbsp; Fact Checkers confirmed the images were fabricated. But by then, the images had already been screenshotted and forwarded thousands of times. Look at the cuts. This is the tell that still works, even as the visuals get better. Despite all recent advances, the best AI video generators top out at five to ten seconds of high-fidelity footage per prompt.&nbsp; A longer AI-generated video has to be stitched together from multiple short generations, which means frequent, awkward cuts every few seconds. If you are watching a tense two-minute ‘leaked’ recording and the camera conveniently cuts every eight seconds with no logical reason for the edit, you are watching a patchwork of separately generated clips glued into a sequence.&nbsp; Evaluate at your own reaction. This is the one nobody talks about, and it is the most important. The algorithm does not care about truth, it feeds on emotional resonance.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260227100240_58d5cede080eff173f2728c5af7686879b9255c84070baeb6b93efa43b79e456.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260227100240_58d5cede080eff173f2728c5af7686879b9255c84070baeb6b93efa43b79e456" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1761" loading="lazy" alt="AI generated election images NT"> </figure>  A clip that makes your blood boil within five seconds, that perfectly validates something you already believe about a politician, that gives you exactly the outrage you were looking for, that precision is the red flag. Real events are messy and ambiguous.&nbsp; They do not arrive in 15-second packages engineered to confirm your worldview. The instinct we need before the election is the pause between seeing and sharing. That cognitive pause, the two seconds where you ask yourself why this video is making you feel exactly what it wants you to feel, is the only defence that scales against a technology that is evolving faster than any detection tool. Nepal went from masu bhat to digital masu bhat. The plate of mutton curry that once bought votes has been replaced by AI-generated dopamine hits served through the feed. In both cases, the target is a voter who reacts before thinking. &nbsp; Think you have the instincts to tell AI from reality? Test yourself. We built <a href="https://spot-the-ai-pied.vercel.app/">AI OR NOT</a>, a challenge where you listen to audio clips and watch footage and vote on what is AI-generated and what is not. <a href="https://spot-the-ai-pied.vercel.app/">Try it out online</a>. &nbsp;

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Spot AI generated election videos

The soft pastels and whimsical background looked like a moment stolen from a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15283">Hayao Miyazaki</a> film. The thrill on my niece’s face was palpable as she shared her first Ghibli-style portrait earlier this month. This surge in the latest generative <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai">AI tool</a> can transform personal photographs into Studio Ghibli-inspired artwork. It is dubbed ‘Ghiblification’ and has captured the global imagination.&nbsp; But danger lurks.The playful trend masks serious hazards. Every image can be retained and repurposed as training data, jeopardising privacy and creating fresh pathways for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bal-mandir-rape-allegations,1495"> child sexual abuse</a> material, sextortion, bullying, and hate speech. A recent study by our ChildSafeNet with UNICEF Nepal on generative AI and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/to-the-point/keeping-children-safe">child safety </a>reveals that over 60% of young people in Kathmandu have experimented with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-valley-to-silicon-valley">generative AI</a>, often oblivious to the hidden costs. Every time a photograph is uploaded to create AI-generated artwork or submitted to an app like Dreamify, the user is giving away more than just pixels: they are entrusting their likeness, metadata, and private spaces to an opaque system. The image may be stored indefinitely and woven into the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/nepal-as-an-ai-power-bank">AI model’s training data</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025042915040_4f5bcc3d8307c72a3b98db91adb69499ab1cb8831c8f06adec2089b4897a42d2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2025042915040_4f5bcc3d8307c72a3b98db91adb69499ab1cb8831c8f06adec2089b4897a42d2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Ghiblification is more than cute pixels"> </figure>  Distinctive facial features, location metadata, or even background details can be memorised and later reproduced in outputs for other users, violating privacy and breaching confidentiality. Even heavily edited or filtered images can leave a digital fingerprint that sophisticated models can reproduce. OpenAI, the company that owns generative AI models like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/chatgpt-news-about-nepal">ChatGPT</a> and DALL·E, uses the images shared by users as training data to refine the model, unless the user opts out. However, the potential for misuse is great. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship">Artificial censorship</a>, Vishad Raj Onta Viral adoption of<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/what-to-expect-from-ai-in-2024-ue5btyc7?amp=1"> AI-generated imagery</a> makes people inclined to upload personal images, including those of families and minors. These images contain rich personal information, and serve as a significant source of data for companies, allowing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/digital-path-to-social-buffers-in-nepal">technology firms </a>to collect valuable insights into facial features,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-turning-into-a-nation-of-hybrid-identities"> social dynamics, and cultural nuances</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025042915040_b1d85cc2bc13f09acd35462a302a8e9f561d14aa3e3ba7528283d9214c3a9cce.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="2025042915040_b1d85cc2bc13f09acd35462a302a8e9f561d14aa3e3ba7528283d9214c3a9cce" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="1024" loading="lazy" alt="Ghiblification is more than cute pixels"> </figure>  “Such visually appealing images can be easily misused for generating seemingly credible imagery for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/online-trolls-bots-snoopers-imperil-democracy">spreading misinformation </a>and reinforcing cultural stereotypes,” says computer scientist Dovan Rai with Body and Data. “Children are particularly vulnerable, as sexualised deepfake content can be generated with ease.” Most platforms that provide AI image-generation tools do not transparently disclose how they handle uploaded content. When children's photos are ingested, the model internalises these features, which can later resurface in contexts no one intended, creating an ethical time bomb. “Children’s likenesses could also appear in unexpected contexts, such as advertisements, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-comment">memes, or controversial content</a>, all without their families' knowledge,” Rai warns. The Internet Watch Foundation recently identified over 3,500 AI-generated child sexual abuse material in one month on encrypted forums — some grotesque deepfakes superimposing children’s faces onto sexual content. While those examples were not in the Ghibli style, they demonstrate how any benign filter can be twisted into a tool for exploitation. On the other hand, AI tools have even begun to produce deepfake videos of child rape and torture by superimposing victims’ faces onto pornographic content. Such material can normalise sexual violence, facilitate grooming, enable sextortion, and serve as instruments of bullying and hate speech.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025042915044_d5a12a9b45c04446c731e84b97042c259c2c16160dde783e8b78321ecd07283e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="2025042915044_d5a12a9b45c04446c731e84b97042c259c2c16160dde783e8b78321ecd07283e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1265" loading="lazy" alt="Ghiblification is more than cute pixels"> </figure>  The risks associated with generative AI have already begun to emerge in countries like Nepal, says Superintendent Deepak Raj Awasthi at the Nepal Police Cyber Bureau. “We are investigating cases involving the use of AI-generated images and videos for defamation and the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and hate against teens and young people,” Awathi says. “We have also received complaints regarding AI-generated deepfake videos aimed at defaming politicians and celebrities.”&nbsp; Parents should be concerned about how AI-generated imagery may affect children’s safety as well as creativity. Over-reliance on AI tools could diminish traditional creative skills like drawing and painting, among others. Says Kabindra Napit of Smart Parents Nepal: “Parents must<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/educating-girls-to-break-cycle-of-poverty"> educate their children</a> about associated online risks and stay updated on emerging threats.” <h2>Tips to protect the young</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025042915044_74cf15146be367c7d4f213c5b73896da525eb4d133ad8d2b5e0e58945048582d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="2025042915044_74cf15146be367c7d4f213c5b73896da525eb4d133ad8d2b5e0e58945048582d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1463" loading="lazy" alt="Ghiblification is more than cute pixels"> </figure>  <h2> </h2> Safety-by-Design: Technology companies need to prioritise safety for children and vulnerable groups, from the very beginning of product and service development using the Safety-by-Design approach, developed by Australia’s eSafety Commissioner. Consent and Transparency: Every AI art application should provide clear disclosure that submitted images may be used as training data, offering users an easy option to opt out. Stronger Moderation: Technology companies must combine automated detection with human oversight to intercept and prevent the spread of harmful content, blocking any prompts or requests for sexualised imagery of minors and swiftly remove harmful content. Watermarking or ‘fingerprinting’ systems will help trace and block harmful AI-generated images. Legal Protection: Laws must criminalise the creation, distribution, and use of AI-generated child sexual abuse material, enhancing international collaboration will be crucial for tracking and prosecuting offenders. Multi-stakeholder Collaboration: Technology companies, law enforcement agencies, educators, and NGOs must collaborate to share knowledge and resources. Digital Literacy: Develop digital literacy skills among children so they can distinguish between fantasy art and reality, and recognise risks. Clear and confidential reporting channels must be established to report harmful content. Parental Support: Establish open and trusted communication with children about the potential dangers of AI is crucial. Parents and carers can also implement age-appropriate filters and monitoring tools to enhance safety. Support Services: Service providers need to provide child and young people-friendly counselling and legal support. Anil Raghuvanshi is the founder of <a href="http://www.childsafenet.org/">ChildSafeNet</a>. Reach out to him at <a href="mailto:anil.raghuvanshi@childsafenet.org">anil.raghuvanshi@childsafenet.org</a>

Ghiblification is more than cute pixels

The bewildering speed with which generative artificial intelligence developed in just one year dominated the news in 2023. This set off both alarm and excitement: how <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-in-the-decade-of-ai">AI innovation</a> offers solutions to everyday chores, while taking us into dangerous new terrain. Geeks and tech freaks like me watched fascinated as AI applications accelerated in the past year. It was only in March 2023 that I got hooked into AI apps and wrote the front page report in Nepali Times titled Ayo AI. Last week, this paper carried an AI-assisted artwork by digital artist Ashim Shakya (pictured below), showing the enormous possibilities in enhancing existing creative processes.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231223031244_c50108558fee57438989879fe5e8d7f4674979947cd989c8772c6b5cfb248c83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20231223031244_c50108558fee57438989879fe5e8d7f4674979947cd989c8772c6b5cfb248c83" data-rendition-name="original" width="629" height="916" loading="lazy" alt="NT 1191"> </figure>  When I began to grasp AI knowhow, I never expected to continue using generative AI apps but was hooked into it. From Open <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/chatgpt-news-about-nepal">AI’s ChatGPT</a> 3.5 and two other image generators, I have now tried out over 1,000 apps. Even that is just a drop in the ocean of AI apps available today. &nbsp; In May, when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai">Ayo AI was featured in this paper</a>, there were about 640 AI apps. There were 10,842 relevant AIs to 9,000 tasks as we went to press on Thursday. It could impact 5,000 job sectors if these AIs are directly embedded into their workflows.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023123003124_c7a93663335a91461f5e1cee7503dd13c06119e354a29ba282ace94a7837dc60.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2023123003124_c7a93663335a91461f5e1cee7503dd13c06119e354a29ba282ace94a7837dc60" data-rendition-name="original" width="752" height="1140" loading="lazy" alt="AI in Nepal"> </figure>  So far, there is no evidence of this happening yet. According to the world’s number one AI aggregator, ‘There is an AI for that’ among job holders, 98% of those impacted will be the communications managers and others in this sector. But that is just an opinion, not yet a fact. For content creators, 2023 has been a great year with generative AI app for almost every task. These can be done with just a few text prompts to generate ideas, stories, voiceovers, images, illustrations, websites, infographic designs, animations, music and videos.&nbsp; ChatGPT is no longer the dominant chatbot, but is still one of the best. It was my favourite until I started using Anthropic’s Claude-2 that was released in July. It gives 200,000 tokens, which means that we can upload large documents up to 75,000 words and have it summarised in bullet points simplifying the text. I could use it to synthesise this review, but am doing it the old fashioned way. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021236_ee9a91549eee9027c52b23401f43642bbdc849cdcb188ab71db889240ce428ae.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20231230021236_ee9a91549eee9027c52b23401f43642bbdc849cdcb188ab71db889240ce428ae" data-rendition-name="original" width="2100" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>High resolution AI-generated image of a Nepali child walking with baby rhino. The only problem is that AI didn't seem to be able to tell the difference between an Asiatic and African rhino. All prompts: NARESH NEWAR</figcaption> </figure>  <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="450" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EAbk6H0_Qb4?si=dpyFkgb84WpAopMD" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> The biggest sensation is Gemini AI, considered the most capable AI model developed by Google DeepMind, able to communicate and generate human-like texts. Gemini Pro Vision can interpret any image through its image reasoning task, and has the ability to describe the image and write captions. Its most significant feature is to identify if a photograph or artwork is original or AI-generated. AI-powered image generators have advanced a lot and taken such a huge leap in creating realism in photos and art. Videos have advanced to another level. InVideo, for example, can produce a whole video with just a text prompt: from writing a complete script, a voiceover, and creating visuals selected from its 9 million video stock. A major milestone in generative AI is the Runway, which generates amazing visuals with just a text prompt.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021240_46a18d9e0b1af7a67499b5d39a180688e0d887f91b8c096f7a2fde388b89c68d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20231230021240_46a18d9e0b1af7a67499b5d39a180688e0d887f91b8c096f7a2fde388b89c68d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1344" height="896" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>Water colour of rural Nepal, showing how AIs now have perfected hues and textures without the need for colour correction.</figcaption> </figure>  Another new addition that could be Runway’s biggest competitor is Pika, its web-based version is now available but has a long waitlist. (I finally managed to get access after a two week wait.) It blew me away with its features: from text to video, video to video. And users can upscale the video, add duration, have out-painting, in-painting and a canvas feature. AI-generated music is also gaining momentum as part of the audio-generation tools and platforms and being hugely invested by some of the biggest tech companies. Suno AI is considered the best music app so far, and was started by a group of musicians in partnership with AI experts in Cambridge, Massachusetts.&nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="450" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/10p5ckFlnBU?si=2dIOLkpv0duXpVwS" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> In December, it partnered with Microsoft, which has integrated Suno AI in its Copilot as a plugin. Facebook and Google are also partnering with other music companies to create their own AI music audio generation apps. AI is not hype anymore, it is a reality. This is the right time to be in the business. For content creators with technical knowledge and skills for design software like the Adobe products or Affinity, it enriches their work and makes them more productive, cost-effective and enhances inventiveness. Warning: it takes time to master the technique and perfect content.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021240_7200af85f6f326a078b5c26c0c7e99c7a21528a263f8f74c987e54cb5fb5d038.png" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20231230021240_7200af85f6f326a078b5c26c0c7e99c7a21528a263f8f74c987e54cb5fb5d038" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="1024" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>Snow leopard in the Nepal Himalaya.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021244_401ddc826e5a58ae32e44079ef369bfd3c9f926a103eb6cae627858c5371ee10.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20231230021244_401ddc826e5a58ae32e44079ef369bfd3c9f926a103eb6cae627858c5371ee10" data-rendition-name="original" width="2100" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>3D image of an animated frog. Now AIs can create super high resolution 3D animated images.</figcaption> </figure>  &nbsp;But AI-generated content is still not as lucrative as people have been led to believe. Customers still prefer original writing and art, photography or videos. YouTube, the biggest platform for creators, encourages original content. &nbsp; YouTube users are often critical of AI-generated content as they do not want to spend time watching fake content created with AI. I tried that once with my own YouTube channel and many wrote angry messages and they felt offended.&nbsp; So far, the only AI content that really sells well on YouTube is news about latest AI updates, videos with clickbait titles about how to generate income using AI, or those showcasing new AI apps, interviews with AI experts, and especially scaremongering news about AI destroying humanity. Instagram has been a popular platform for original and creative content creators and is now crowded with millions of them. However, their AI-generated content do not get as good a response as original posts.&nbsp; There is fear mongering about how AI could destroy the careers of people in the creative fields, but AI generative tools have not ruined professional content creators like the designers, content writers, photographers, videographers and paint artists.&nbsp; It is true that the evolution of the AI generative tools has been speeding up, and we can predict even more advanced generative AI apps. The age of content creation is here and AI apps may be commercially viable and socially acceptable if used ethically and with transparency.&nbsp; For hardworking creative professionals, technology transformation has never been a threat or a challenge to their artistic creations. This argument, or rather assumption, about generative AI being a threat is exaggerated. A lot of creative people have joined the AI revolution, enhancing their original pieces of artistic creations. &nbsp;&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021248_354194b90332a9d05ecca9ad294eb4b0030705f3f7c65b105e6e49bceffe9e4c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20231230021248_354194b90332a9d05ecca9ad294eb4b0030705f3f7c65b105e6e49bceffe9e4c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="1024" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>Urban sketch of imaginary Asan bazar. AIs are now able to generate images relevant to local cultural context. Nepal is now largely in the AI datasets.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231230021248_dc93e7c3e11ca13971cbc48cedf7248aa1ae2305c875e78abc5355ad7b6a9fd4.png" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20231230021248_dc93e7c3e11ca13971cbc48cedf7248aa1ae2305c875e78abc5355ad7b6a9fd4" data-rendition-name="original" width="2100" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="AI in 2024"> <figcaption>Manga art of a young Nepali girl watching iceless mountain witnessing the impact of climate change. AIs have perfected generating digital painting.</figcaption> </figure>  &nbsp;

What to expect from AI in 2024

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Early on Monday morning, a bus from Pokhara to Kathmandu plunged off the highway in Dhading killing 19 passengers. Two weeks ago, another bus fell into the Tama Kosi in Manthali, killing 12. A few days before that a bus crash in Baitadi killed 13 people.&nbsp; In just the month before Nepal's election, more than 50 people have been killed in road traffic accidents. Most of these cannot be called 'accidents'. They are a direct result of poorly maintained highways and lack of enforcement of traffic discipline. Political parties in Nepal have rolled out their election manifestos, and voters are once again presented with a flood of promises. Page after page, these documents list megawatts and microcredit, highways and airports, jobs and investment. In these manifestos, growth is quantified, projects itemised, revenue forecast — and there are even threats to beat up contractors who do not finish their jobs. But when everything is declared a priority the stale promises are empty. The voter is left confused as to where the party’s loyalties really lie. Will any of these plans and pledges actually ever materialise and help Nepalis live longer, safer, healthier lives? The main job of any accountable government is to protect its citizens, not so much from foreign enemies but from domestic mismanagement. And this means the most basic test the new government should be made to pass is whether it can ensure basic well-being and protection for all its people. The problems of safety, health, and survival remain unresolved for most Nepalis, and are quietly eroding their lives. In the past year alone, the country’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">roads and highways claimed more than 2,300</a> lives. An estimated 41,000 Nepalis die each year directly because of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-invisible-is-more-dangerous">air pollution</a>, and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/air-pollution-killing-season-starts-early">lifespans are lessened by 3.4 years</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health">Non-communicable diseases</a> now account for well over half of total deaths in the country. And even where survival has improved, deprivation remains. Chronic malnutrition continues to haunt communities in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mass-migration-from-muktikot">Nepal’s western mountains</a> despite progress in maternal and child health.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  These are the lived realities of most Nepalis, and it is here that development can deliver its most immediate returns. A rising GDP, in and of itself, does not make roads safer, clean polluted air, or provide enough nutrition to children. Such outcomes demand intentional, granular policies that confront the specific, everyday problems shaping people’s lives.&nbsp; Macroeconomic growth, trade and investment are important, but these alone cannot guarantee improvements health and safety. The word ‘growth’, after all, is also synonymous with malignancy. Economic progress and human protection are correlated only when governance deliberately links them. Impact on life is the unit in which ordinary Nepalis calculate progress. What is needed, then, is a governing philosophy measurable in these same terms: a ‘life-first’ standard where every policy, budget, and reform can be understood and judged by its impact on protecting and extending human life. Such a ‘life-first’ approach would scrutinise three aspects of every policy. First, whether the policy prevents loss of life. A death is termed preventable if better, more coordinated response systems and regulations could have avoided it (vaccines, drugs, road safety, clean drinking water). A newly built six-lane highway <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">can be a death trap</a> due to poor design or lax enforcement of safety rules. If neonatal deaths continue in a district despite hospitals being present, or if malnutrition claims lives in predominantly agricultural regions, they too are failures. Preventable deaths also cluster where accountability is less direct. Just last year, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/suicides-a-pandemic-within-a-pandemic">Nepal recorded 6,866 suicides</a>, with nearly 20 lives lost every day, yet these deaths fail to prompt any serious examination of governance. The same holds for fatalities linked to domestic or communal violence, alcohol and substance misuse, or ‘natural’ disasters, which register as ‘tragedies without remedy’ rather than as outcomes policy can influence. But when avoidable loss of life recurs at scale, isolated incidents become patterns, and patterns reveal systemic neglect. Saving lives, however, is only the first step, and what matters just as much is the quality of years lived. Nepal’s life expectancy now stands at 71 years, yet many citizens spend years in avoidable disability, untreated chronic illness, or mental distress. A life- first government must ask not only whether people live, but whether they thrive. Are citizens able to pursue education, work, and family life without fear of preventable harm? Do communities have access to clean air and water, nutritious food, and basic healthcare? Can a teenager anywhere in Nepal imagine a future not foreclosed by premature marriage, or untreated depression?  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940" data-rendition-name="original" width="2529" height="1427" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  Thriving requires policies that prevent suffering and promote well-being in addition to ensuring survival.&nbsp; Finally, governance must consider graceful aging. Elderly Nepalis should not be left to navigate disease, poverty, or isolation alone. Social systems, healthcare, and community support must enable their continued participation and dignified well-being. Adopting this three-layered standard would gradually reorient how success of any new government is defined. Transportation would be judged by fatalities reduced on the roads. Electricity generation would be measured by whether households can switch from firewood dependence to smoke-free electric stoves.&nbsp; Increase in annual rice harvest must translate into better nutrition, reducing the prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes. Accountability must follow problems rather than stop at Singha Darbar. Only then will politicians and bureaucrats eventually recognise that their work converges on the same human endpoint. Critics will argue that economies are complex, trade-offs are inevitable, and that governance cannot be reduced to a single metric.But, as Acemoglu and Robinson show in their book <a href="https://ia801506.us.archive.org/27/items/WhyNationsFailTheOriginsODaronAcemoglu/Why-Nations-Fail_-The-Origins-o-Daron-Acemoglu.pdf">Why Nations Fail</a>, the key difference between prosperity and poverty lies in inclusive institutions that empower citizens and create broad incentives for well-being.&nbsp; Extractive institutions concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few while keeping the majority trapped in neglect. Nepal’s governance has remained a striking example of extraction. If lawmakers in the new Parliament continue to resist changes that would save and improve the lives of ordinary citizens, the same systemic rot will persist for generations to come. A life-first mentality can cut through this inertia by clarifying the moral centre of governance and reminding policymakers that behind every policy failure lies human cost. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-hunger">Every mother in Bajura</a> with a child going hungry at night, every farmer in the Madhes unable to afford medical care, and every family that has lost <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-kidneys-to-save-nepal">a migrant son to kidney failure</a> understands the true <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/dirty-dangerous-difficult-and-dehydrating">value of a life saved</a>. Life is the one metric that transcends ideology, ethnicity, and region. Centering governance on this single, focused metric, can shift an election from a contest of rhetoric to a contest of evidence. Which party ensured access to safe water and basic healthcare? Which made work at home and abroad safer and less exploitative. Which measurably extended healthy years of life for ordinary citizens? Health is wealth. By improving the healthy lifespan of citizens economic prosperity would follow naturally. A ‘life-first’ governance model would therefore compel Nepal to address the underlying structural failures across all sectors, rather than merely alleviating their symptoms. The GenZ protest that toppled the government last September was, at its core, a demand for accountability and a rejection of politics as usual. But as the country edges closer to the polls, that clarity has started to dissipate. Parties are now echoing the language of reform, but the public discourse remains dominated by promises that feel disconnected from Nepal’s most immediate and basic priorities. Every preventable death, every hungry child, and every neglected elder becomes a direct failure of governance and a moral debt the state must answer for. It is how we can make sure we keep the next government in check. The writers are Nepali GenZ students of biomedical engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

Nepal’s life or death election

Chronic winter drought and decades of unmanaged forest biomass have turned wildfires into a systemic risk for Nepal. We need to re-learn to convert fire fuel in forests into fertilizer for crops.&nbsp; On 11 January, a huge forest fire spread rapidly from China into the forests of Sindhupalchok, 40km northeast of Kathmandu. The newly-opened Tatopani border checkpoint was closed. Smoke from the fire spread across central Nepal, blocking the sun.&nbsp; The fire burnt itself out within a few days, but the border stayed closed for longer. Such wildfires were once rare in mid-winter, and traditionally peaked between March and May as temperatures rose ahead of pre-monsoon showers. What is unsettling is not just the early onset of the fires, but also their scale. This shift is not accidental, the pattern has been unfolding over years due to winter drought, weakening post-monsoon moisture, and the accumulation of dry forest biomass as Nepal’s forest area doubled in the past 30 years.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026022009024_5f4a84bb389f9b56f4fa47d4f694adcd464eb13b192d184af0f1eb20efdfeebf" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1055" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of Nepal with red dots signifying fires in February 2025.</figcaption> </figure>  Together, these factors have made forests tinder dry in spring, just waiting for a spark. Nepal has experienced winter drought in eight of the past ten years (this winter was an exception). Winter rain and snow at higher elevations play a decisive role in maintaining surface moisture, recharging shallow aquifers, and keeping forest floors damp enough to resist ignition. When winter rains fail, forests dry out months earlier than usual. Satellite-based assessments show a steep decline in surface moisture across the middle mountains of Nepal, particularly in areas with dense forest cover but limited undergrowth management. Springs that once flowed year-round are now seasonal.&nbsp; More than half of the springs in the mid-hills have either dried up or show significantly reduced discharge, a trend closely linked to declining soil moisture and disrupted recharge zones. Dry soil does not just threaten water security — it helps the vegetation ignite. FUEL WITHOUT FUNCTION For decades, Nepal’s forests have been accumulating dry leaf litter, fallen branches, shrubs, and deadwood. Historically, this biomass was not considered waste because rural households regularly collected leaf litter for livestock bedding, which was later composted and returned to farms as fertilizer.&nbsp; Forest floors were therefore relatively clean while the mulch fertilized farms. That relationship has steadily eroded due to outmigration, changes in livestock systems, restrictions on access to community forests, and the growing availability of chemical fertilisers.&nbsp; Community forests across the country today are thick with dry twigs, branches and leaves — a highly combustible carpet. When prolonged drought dries this biomass, even a small spark from a herder’s intentional fire, a cigarette, or lightning strike can trigger massive fires.&nbsp; Under such conditions, the question is no longer whether fires will occur, but how intense and widespread they will be. Forest fires are often framed as an environmental issue concerning trees and wildlife. In reality, their impact extends far beyond forest boundaries.&nbsp; Smoke travels faster and further than flames. Fine particulate matter, especially harmful PM2.5, spreads across countries. In recent fire seasons, air quality monitors in Kathmandu have recorded air quality levels several times higher than WHO guidelines. The smoke adds to Kathmandu’s own pollution and lingers for days.&nbsp; Flights are cancelled or delayed in cities like Pokhara, and poor visibility blocks mountain views affecting tourism. Health facilities report spikes in respiratory complaints, particularly among children and the elderly. Just as wildfires have multi-sectoral causes, the impact of forest fires go beyond forests. One critical dimension remains largely invisible: the soil. The fires cause silent damage beneath the ash, and the emergency does not end when the flames subside. Beneath the surface, soil suffers long-term damage. Organic matter burns away, beneficial microorganisms die. The soil structure weakens, reducing the land’s ability to absorb and retain water. The scorched earth is more prone to erosion, increasing the risk of floods and landslides once the rains return.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026022009028_cc54ff056b2cac8b789cfd4d11afef9eaf943368e47b99aabd57c7b63b776cf2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1717" height="2143" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Wildfire risk map based on the validated Random Forest model (a) Overall reclassified wildfire risk map of Nepal, (b) District level wildfire risk, and (c) Municipality wildfire risk map.</figcaption> </figure>  In many of Nepal’s agricultural areas, soil organic matter levels are already below 2% -- lower than what is needed for resilient and productive farming. Repeated fires push these levels even lower, undermining soil fertility and forcing farmers to rely more heavily on chemical fertilisers, unleashing a vicious cycle of higher costs and food insecurity.&nbsp; Climate breakdown is often cited as the primary culprit, and rightly so. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have intensified fire risk. But fires in Nepal are increasingly the result of human intervention.&nbsp; The response of all three levels of government remains too little, and too reactive. Each year, resources are mobilised to extinguish fires once they have already spread. Far less attention is paid to managing the fuel load within forest undergrowth that makes such fires inevitable.&nbsp; Meanwhile, forestry and agriculture policies are not coordinated, missing opportunities to address shared challenges. Forest fires are not natural disasters, but predictable outcomes of governance choices. National plans and climate pledges set an ambitious target of raising soil organic matter to 4%. The science behind this goal is solid. Higher organic matter improves water retention, stabilises yields, reduces fertiliser dependence, and enhances long-term food security. What remains unclear is the pathway.&nbsp; Where will the organic inputs come from? How will they be processed and applied safely at scale? Without practical answers, the 4% target risks remaining aspirational rather than achievable. Forest undergrowth can be turned into fuel and fertiliser. Biochar is produced by heating organic biomass in a low-oxygen environment, converting it into a stable form of carbon that can be added to soil.&nbsp; When properly produced and applied, it improves soil structure, enhances water and nutrient retention, supports microbial activity, and locks carbon into the ground for decades. In Nepal biochar addresses two interconnected problems: reducing the accumulation of combustible biomass in forests, lowering fire risk, while simultaneously rebuilding depleted soils. In doing so, it restores the broken link between forest management and agriculture.&nbsp; Done well, biochar is not merely an environmental intervention. It is an economic one, with potential to create local employment, reduce farmers’ input costs, and support climate-smart agriculture. But biochar propagation depends on improved governance. If promoted as isolated pilots or short-term projects, it will fail. What is needed is institutional clarity: standards for production and safety, quality control mechanisms, farmer extension services, and coordination across local, provincial, and federal levels.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026022009028_e6e2218f38fae5b1fe81d9f99078fe01f58d04b4b3b2c41447f017c3f838a1d4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1536" height="2048" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfire season NT"> <figcaption>Freshly prepared biochar under control tempature (350-600°C).</figcaption> </figure>  Community forest user groups could manage biomass collection. Local governments then support safe, decentralised production units. Agricultural extension services guide farmers on application, linked to soil testing and monitoring. Such an approach would reduce fire risk, improve soil health, and generate rural livelihoods.&nbsp; Poorly produced biochar or contaminated feedstock can harm soils and human health. Without training, standards, and oversight, good intentions can backfire. Nepal needs to move beyond fire-fighting to fire prevention and confront the structural causes that make them a growing risk. It is not just a technical choice – it is one that demands political will from newly-elected leaders after March. &nbsp;&nbsp; Ngamindra Dahal is a hydrometeorologist with the Nepal Water Conservation Foundation specialising on climate and water management issues.&nbsp;

RED ALERT: Get ready for the wildfire season

Party flags and banners wave from electric poles, houses and e-rickshaws are festooned with posters. Madhes Province is in the grip of election fever, and in a tour through four of its districts, there is the sense that any efforts by mainstream political parties at reforms have come too little too late. Among the banners, the sky blue of the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/new-vs-new-in-nepal"> RSP is more prominent </a>here this time, and the rallying cry across the country for new and improved leadership is echoed on the ground. “For the people around here, whatever these old leaders are saying has become just noise,” says a lassi shop operator in Janakpur, waving a dismissive hand at flags with the NC’s tree symbol across the street. In Janakpur, UML nominee Raghubir Mahaseth was barred from canvassing door-to-door. Campaign posters of the mainstream parties have been torn from walls and replaced with RSP posters.&nbsp; In Inarwari village of Rautahat in the Madhes heartland, local elected officials whose parties have been merged into the Nepali Communist Party hope to retain enough supporters this election. But not many residents say they would vote for its candidate. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_a793e3a19cbd536fde50708c4a41b8b0d39a4716c6973feddad889097b655641.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026022005024_a793e3a19cbd536fde50708c4a41b8b0d39a4716c6973feddad889097b655641" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> <figcaption>Photos: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>  A first-time voter in Sarlahi’s Haripur is home on a semester break from medical school in Kathmandu, and is waiting excitedly for 5 March. “You can’t really say out loud whom you’re voting for around here,” he says, as he mimes ringing a bell. “It is time for someone new to be in-charge." In the highway town of Bardibas, an elderly teashop owner says that all she hears are calls for घण्टी, the RSP’s bell symbol. “After all, bells are rung in the house of gods,” she says. “It seems like the right choice.” The RSP wave sweeping the nation after the GenZ movement is seen in Madhes, and the PR ballots might reflect that, notes political analyst Tula Narayan Shah.&nbsp; “But the socio-cultural networks, organisational setup, and legacy of democratic movement of traditional parties might still give them a fighting chance on the first past the post ballot,” he says. &nbsp;“The door-to-door campaign style of candidates has always been more prominent in Madhes than elsewhere.”&nbsp; Villages like Dhankaul in Sarlahi-4 where <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grand-split-in-nepal-s-grand-old-party">Gagan Thapa</a> of the Nepali Congress (NC) is running against incumbent Amresh Singh, is an NC stronghold. Singh won the election here twice before in 2013 and 2017 when he was an NC leader, and still had goodwill among NC voters when he ran and won as an independent during the 2022 election. “I voted for him twice before when he was in the NC, but he did not do anything for this or other villages. Once he is elected, he has not set foot here,” says Rajiv Yadav, a voter in Dhanakul. “The RSP will get more votes here than last time, but Gagan is sure to win. This village will vote for him.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_26691bb5a37edf705cc197a632d0bf032f984079a838d31bcd943bc0b9c97ff3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026022005024_26691bb5a37edf705cc197a632d0bf032f984079a838d31bcd943bc0b9c97ff3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> </figure>  Madhes is in the spotlight this election because two prime ministerial candidates have focused their attention in the region. Balen Shah began his campaign in Janakpur (main picture, left) in January as a ‘Son of Madhes’, and Gagan Thapa chose Sarlahi-4 as his constituency over Kathmandu-4, from where he has been elected since 2013.&nbsp; The Madhes has always been the battleground for Nepal’s electoral politics, and candidates from here, like Krishna Prasad Bhattarai from Parsa, Pushpa Kamal Dahal from Siraha, Jhala Nath Khanal from Sarlahi, and Madhav Kumar Nepal from Rautahat, have all been prime ministers. Despite electing politicians to high office in Kathmandu, districts of Madhes have consistently ranked low in development and service delivery indicators, especially in basic healthcare and education. Socio-economic inequalities stemming from a lack of opportunities has also meant that Madhes districts have the highest rate of out-migration in the country.&nbsp; What is different this time is that the people of the province have a Madhesi prime ministerial candidate who will represent them in national politics, and the main competition ultimately will be between the NC and RSP prime ministerial candidates. Interestingly, voters seem to be looking beyond Madhes-based parties who have historically campaigned on identity and federalism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026022005024_1b5c1134fb02ded72a12221200918df584b0cd003139bb2be44951efe9a65bf1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2026022005024_1b5c1134fb02ded72a12221200918df584b0cd003139bb2be44951efe9a65bf1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Battleground Tarai NT"> </figure>  “Leaders of Madhes parties have glorified their struggle for votes but failed to perform on good governance at local and provincial levels,” explains Tula Narayan Shah. “Now, Balen has become a PM candidate as a face of the region, and as someone who will deliver based on his work as Kathmandu mayor.” If the RSP wins, it will be governing in the absence of provincial leadership that would play a crucial mediatory role between Kathmandu and local units. On Wednesday, RSP’s Madhes province chair Mamta Sharma resigned from the party and joined the NC. There is also some underlying tension between RSP cadre loyal to Balen Shah and Rabi Lamichhane. “It is not prudent to predict who will win the election and whether parties will deliver on promises,” says Tula Narayan Shah. “But win or lose, there is little basis at this time to believe that the RSP will be committed to making the federal system and provinces more functional.” Voters here in the heart of the federalism movement, however, are willing to give the RSP the benefit of the doubt. &nbsp;Resident Brahma Dev in Janakpur told us: &nbsp;“The RSP, like parties that came before them, deserve a chance to prove their leadership in the next five years. If they do not deliver, we can always vote them out next time.”&nbsp; On Wednesday, NC leaders unveiled the party’s 10-point election manifesto at a large rally in Janakpur (main picture, right). Gagan Thapa began by addressing a cheering crowd in Maithili, and said the NC was reformed, adding:&nbsp; “The GenZ did not reject us, they told us to change our ways.” Also on Wednesday 800km away at the other end of the country in Dhangadi, Balen Shah, in a speech that lasted just three minutes, he said: “Don’t vote for us, give us work to do.”&nbsp;