<figure><img width="1040" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14b79c7e80680e0a998fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The main opposition UML’s leader K P Oli has been sworn in again as party chair after elections on Tuesday, and he in turn has sworn in 14  central members who are all his supporters.Oli and his loyalists all got elected by a comfortable margin, or were unopposed in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-rudderless-political-leadership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lavish convention in Chitwan’s Sauraha</a> where 2,152 delegates have been in attendance for the past five days.Oli had tried to make the process of getting new party functionaries unanimous, but was challenged by a rival faction led by Bhim Rawal. In electronic balloting that started at 4AM on Tuesday, Oli got more than 95% of the votes. His loyalists Shankar Pokhrel (General Secretary), Ishwar Pokhrel, Pradeep Gyawali, Prithvi Subba Gurung and Bishnu Rimal (deputy General Secretaries) have either been voted in, or won uncontested.Oli had beaten <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-up-is-hard-to-do/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhav Kumar Nepal</a> with a slim margin in the previous party convention in 2016. Nepal split off from the UML earlier this year and set up his own party, the Unified Socialists, which is part of the ruling 5-party coalition with the Nepali Congress. Seven of the leaders elected as secretaries of the UML are also all Oli supporters, including Yogesh Bhattarai, Gokarna Bista, Chabilal Biswakarma, Parma Aryal, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, Lekharaj Bhatta Raghubir Mahaseth. Rayamajhi and Bhatta are former Maoists. Besides those two, former Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa who <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">defected to the UML</a> was elected vice-chair of the party, defeating Ghanshyam Bhusal. All three former Maoists were in Oli’s panel. Meanwhile, four UML leaders who were not supported by Oli all lost — they are Bhim Rawal for chair, Ghanashyam Bhusal for vice chair, and Bhim Acharya and Tanka Karki as party secretaries.  <figure><img width="1238" height="708" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016118/636d14b99c7e80680e0a9990jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Oli had been grooming the former Maoists to also show that the Maoist Centre party of Pushpa Kamal Dahal is a spent force. Even after the united Nepal Communist Party (NCP) returned to its former UML and Maoist parties after a Supreme Court order in April, the Thapa, Bhatta and Rayamajhi had stayed loyal to Oli, who rewarded them with his crucial support in Tuesday’s party election.So much so that Oli sidelined Bhim Rawal to make Bhatta the party incharge for the Far-west Province. One of the reasons for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-expediency-trumps-nepal-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhav Nepal splitting from the UML</a> was Oli’s induction of the former Moaists into the party in place of Nepal’s supporters.If <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unconventional-party-conventions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the UML general convention</a> looked like an election rally, that is also what it was. In fact, the elevation of the former Maoist to senior party positions appears to be Oli’s careful calculation for local and federal polls ion early 2023.Among the 301 Central Committee members elected on Tuesday is Ishwari Gharti Magar (pictured) who defied the Maoists during the insurgency to be a staunch UML party member in Rolpa’s Nuwagaun. She has now become the youngest member of the UML Central Committee.She started her political career while a student leader in the Arnico High School, and became a journalist for a few years before being a party cadre. Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress is getting ready for its own party convention in Kathmandu next week. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> is expected to win the party chairmanship just like Oli did in the UML — despite a challenge from Ram Chandra Poudel and Bimalendra Nidhi.RThe Hindu-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is also heading for a convention, and current leader Kamal Thapa is facing a challenge from Rajendra Lingden for the top party post.

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Oli sweeps UML party polls

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cda099c7e80680e092ed6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Interview with UML party spokesperson, foreign minister and K P Oli loyalist Pradeep Gyawali, in which he defends the prime minister's moves to get the party back on track. This interview was taken before Monday’s six-month suspension of Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal from the UML.Nepali Times: How fruitful was the recent parliamentary party meeting at Baluwatar to resolve the dispute within the UML, given that MPs from the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction were also present in the discussions? Pradeep Gyawali: Our colleagues kept their word to attend the meeting, which was a positive development. Their constant disobedience and absence from party meetings have been deepening the chasm between members, festering mistrust, and weakening the foundations of party unity. It is not uncommon for members of one party to have different opinions on various issues. However, the very leaders who had vowed to fight and oust chairperson PM Oli after Parliament reconvened, urged him to play the role of guardian in the party during the meeting. The fact that they attended the meeting and put forward constructive ideas is an acknowledgement that it is important to be united as we move forward.But Chairperson PM Oli during the meeting termed the clarifications of Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal as 'actionable'. Does this mean that there is still a long way to go before the UML is united?The Prime Minister clearly said during the meeting at Dhumbarahi on 15 March that even though some of the things that happened before Parliament was restored can be forgotten, many of the activities to undermine party unity that took place during that time cannot be overlooked. The events that took place after 7 March also cannot be ignored, and he has vowed to take them seriously. His, and the General Secretary’s instructions not to conduct the national gathering of party cadres was disobeyed. Indeed, gathering under the UML banner actively promotes factionalism and is a deliberate attempt to divide the party.On the one hand, Pushpa Kamal Dahal is saying that Madhav Nepal was sent to infiltrate the UML to capture it or rebel, and then to have the Maoists talk about changing the party name, with constant meetings between Dahal and Nepal, then there was all the threatening language from the two leaders– those are the reasons why a clarification was demanded. Prachanda did not have the capacity to divide the NCP, it was only because Madhav Kumar Nepal egged him on. That is what the prime minister was alluding to at the parliamentary party meeting. Then they tried to split the NCP itself, treated KP Oli in an insulting manner, and hatched plots in Khumaltar and Bhaisepati. Chairperson Oli only wants two things: that they will not indulge in factionalism, and some remorse for their past actions. But the clarification from Madhav Nepal does none of it, instead it has unacceptable language. <img width="1000" height="1248" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111012110/636cda0c9c7e80680e092ed7jpeg.jpg" alt="">But they say Chairperson Oli did not include them in party affairs with open arms.The Chairperson has always welcomed them with open arms. He did not take action even when they tried to remove him from the position of the head of the parliamentary party, chairmanship, and prime ministership.We had united with the Maoists in 2018 because the party was rife with contradictions and was falling apart, we thought the UML with its democratic credentials could bring the Maoists into the democratic fold. Even though it was risky. Unfortunately, we couldn't revert Murphy's law.How does the ruling party feel about the fact that there seems to be a full-scale competition to form a coalition government after the reinstatement of the House?The government, seeing no way out from Parliament, had decided to go for a fresh mandate last December. Given that things don’t look very encouraging a month after the House reconvened, our analysis seems to have been correct.The fact is, we still have a majority government per Article 76 (2) of the Constitution. Therefore, as the largest party in Parliament, we are in discussions with other parties, some of which are regarding government formation while others relate to various other political matters. Our focus remains how we can move the country forward, rather than on how we can retain the present government.Since the Maoist Centre has not withdrawn its support to the UML government, how likely is it that the UML-Maoist Centre coalition government will continue?That depends on the Maoist Centre. I don't think they are in a position to easily withdraw their support for the government, because it will have many consequences. And although we want the government to be led by the left, we are not interested in making unnecessary compromises.How far have you come regarding discussions with Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP)?The discussions have been positive. We are in talks with the JSP regarding issues that the party has been raising since the past, including amendments to the constitution, the release of party leaders and activists, as well as the repercussions of the Madhes movement.One area of discussion is their concern be addressed within the framework of the Constitution and the law. Moreover, there is also is a possibility of them participating in the government, provided we can come to an agreement.Some Nepali Congress leaders want to get together with the UML to form the next government. Is this possible?I do not see it happening. Nepali Congress is the main opposition party, and as far as I understand, it wants to remain that way. The first and second largest parties do not form a government together unless it is a government of national consensus.This also depends upon the NC’s decision. There will be other possible coalitions in Parliament to form a government, and we will not stand in their way if they want to join legally.Is the government still in favour of a fresh mandate?We are not in favour of a fresh mandate at present, because the Supreme Court overturned our previous efforts. But the very comrades who branded the dissolution of the House as regressive and touted its reinstatement as a panacea walked out of the session on the day the Parliament reconvened. The same people should be showing us the way out of this crisis. However, since the reinstatement of the House, nobody has shown any interest in participating in the legislative process -- rather, everyone’s attention has been focused solely in getting into government. The events of the past month have made it clear that the Prime Minister was right in seeking a fresh mandate.

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"Unity with the Maoists did not work out"

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

bhim-rawal

Oli sweeps UML party polls

"Unity with the Maoists did not work out"

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138