<figure><img width="1400" height="798" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934479c7e80680e03dfe8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Kunda Dixit</figcaption></figure>A drain in the middle of the road outside the gates of a school in Kirtipur had its concrete slabs removed for maintenance six months ago. No one bothered to close it after the work was finished. Students passed it every day, and at night numerous motorcyclists had been injured trying to avoid the gaping hole. A parent who complained to workers was told to mind his own business. Calls to KUKL went unheeded.On 27 October, as the city readied to celebrate Tihar, soft-spoken yoga tutor Shyam Sundar Shrestha went bicycling to Chobhar. When he did not return home till late at night, his mother and relatives called around. Police found his body the next morning inside Kirtipur’s open drain. An autopsy showed he had drowned in sewage. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dont-go-quietly-into-the-night/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Don't go quietly into the night</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/murder-not-accident/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Murder, not accident</a>   After this paper printed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dont-go-quietly-into-the-night/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the story</a>, readers sent in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/murder-not-accident/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">many photographs of similar death traps</a> all over Kathmandu Valley: ditches, gaping potholes, open manholes. The 2015 earthquake, the road expansion, laying of Melamchi water pipes, repairs of mains, and lately digging for a new sewage network have repeatedly torn up Kathmandu’s busiest thoroughfares. Contractors never adhere even to the minimum safety standards of installing warning signs, fencing off dangerous areas, and paving the streets after digging them up.Aside from the clear and present danger to pedestrians and vehicle users, the decrepit state of Kathmandu’s streets has worsened the Valley’s already <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/every-breath-you-take-air-pollution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unbreathable air</a>. As our weekly graph of the daily <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air pollution</a> averages and the live hour-by-hour pollution updates on our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homepage</a> sourced from the U.S. Embassy monitoring station at Phora Darbar show: Kathmandu air quality index is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one of the worst</a> in the world. At this level of toxicity, residents of Kathmandu will on average lose nearly four years of their lives.In Nepal, we are used to recklessly feckless governments that fail in the state's primary function of protecting citizens. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-nepal-highways,622" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s killer highways</a> claim 2,000 lives for every 100,000 vehicles annually. The figure for Japan is just 7 for every 100,000 cars. While many vehicle fatalities are caused by careless drivers, most are the result of the poor condition of roads, lack of enforcement of traffic rules, the absence of highway dividers, fencing and guard rails. The only reason the fatality rate is not higher is that the surface of city roads and highways are so rough that vehicles are forced to go slow. All this points to criminal negligence on the part of the state. That, in turn, is abetted by a fatalistic culture that ignores prevention, maintenance and safety. A combination of corruption and a complete lack of accountability on the part of elected officials and bureaucrats has turned our sidewalks, roads, highways, bridges, airports, and cities into death traps. Passing the buck and lack of coordination are blatant.For a long time we blamed Kathmandu's kleptocracy, and hoped that last year’s elections to three levels of government would finally decentralise responsibility. It has been more than a year, but most municipalities are governed by the party that rules in Kathmandu, and its culture of poor governance has trickled down to the grassroots.There are syndicates in every sphere of business, and many of them are hand-in-glove with national and local politicians. This greedy neo-elite has honed rent-seeking into a fine art. Structural corruption and pre-paid appointments of jobs in the bureaucracy have reduced the impact of public spending. There is plenty of cash to go around, but the Centre is loath to hand over the purse-strings to provincial and local governments. Development budgets go unspent because no one can decide who gets the cut.An investigation in this paper recently showed that one-third of elected mayors were contractors, owned construction companies, or had excavators they rented out to municipalities they lead. Elections should have been able to fix all that, because in a democracy, legitimacy comes not just from being elected but from performance. But winning an election in Nepal has more to do with party affiliation than accomplishments while in office. Poor governance has a direct impact on urban planning, infrastructure, safety – and is often a question of life or death, as in the tragic martyrdom of Shyam Sundar Shrestha. As one of the mourners at his memorial said: “All three levels of government are responsible for the death of this citizen. And it goes right up to the Prime Minister’s office.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dont-go-quietly-into-the-night/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Don't go quietly in the night</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poisoning the air we breathe</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Open Air</a>, Nepali Times <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> The Nepali Times issue  #425 of 14-20 November 2008 ten years ago carried an editorial that reads like it could have been written today. At that time, the Maoist party had just been elected to office with a landslide. Ten years later, the party is in government with a near two-third majority. But the frustrations are the same. Excerpt:'Nepal’s revolution was supposed to lead us towards a New Nepal. A new set of elected leaders was supposed to bring us a new vision and infuse citizens with hope and a sense of national purpose. Nepalis haven’t yet given up hope. They want to give the government they elected a chance to prove itself-both in improving their daily lives and also by charting a new future for this country. We are suffering the byproducts of the insurgency: criminality, bribery, extortion and breakdown in law and order.In Nepal, a revolution that was fought at great human cost has ironically habituated people to kidnappings and corruption. Even if the lives of Nepalis don’t improve, we need to have a perception that things are on the mend: that delivery of services is happening, that jobs are being created, that wealth is being spread. The present culture of impunity, the surge in crime and corruption do not give us that perception.' <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/425" data-elementor-open-lightbox=""> <img width="640" height="999" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/6369344b9c7e80680e03dfe9jpeg.jpg" alt=""></a>

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Reckless fecklessness

<figure><img width="1400" height="933" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/6369301a9c7e80680e03c0dejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Sonia Awale</figcaption></figure>As winter sets in and air quality deteriorates, most of Kathmandu Valley’s 18 mayors gathered on Thursday in Patan to listen to experts and discuss a strategy to reduce <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-scientist-returns-to-pinpoint-hazards-of-dirty-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air pollution</a>.The Mayors’ Summit on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/air-pollution-decreases-life-span,3999" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Air Pollution</a> heard from scientists that Kathmandu ranks 261 among the world’s 3,000 most polluted cities. And that a third of the Valley’s pollution is caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">vehicular emissions</a>, 28% from road dust, 23% from garbage burning and 15% from brick kilns. In winter, local air quality is worsened by industrial pollution and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/air-quality-data-to-figure-out-what-to-do,841" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crop burning smoke blown in from India</a>. “People are cursing us because we have not acted to reduce pollution, this forum gives us an opportunity for the Valley’s municipalities to work together to address this public health menace collectively,” said Lalitpur mayor Chiri Babu Maharjan (pictured above, left sitting with Kathmandu Mayor Bidya Sundar Shakya).One of the Valley’s most pro-active mayors, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-breath-of-fresh-air-in-thimi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madan Sundar Shrestha of Thimi</a> has been building bicycle lanes and widening sidewalks, and advised fellow mayors that there was now enough awareness, and they should move into implementing remedial measures. The Mayor’s Forum will soon decide on steps to be taken to improve the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Valley’s air quality</a>.The Mayors’ Summit was jointly organised by Kathmandu and Lalitpur Municipalities with Clean Energy Nepal and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/image/Jhal-Nath-Khanals-audio-album-launched,844" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bhusan Tuladhar</a> of Clean Energy Nepal pointed out that 20% of Kathmandu’s vehicles caused half the Valley’s pollution, and urged national and local governments to improve fuel quality and enforce green emission stickers.“It is time for the municipalities to act, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/air-pollution-mexico-city-lessons-for-kathmandu,805" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu could learn from Mexico City</a> which has curbed air pollution,” Tuladhar added.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/air-pollution-mexico-city-lessons-for-kathmandu,805" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mexico City's lessons for Kathmandu</a>, Arnico Panday <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/6369301d9c7e80680e03c0dfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Mexico’s Ambassador to Nepal Melba Pria presented a checklist of measures undertaken after Mexico City was declared the most polluted city in the world in 1992, and used to have only eight days of good air quality in a year. By 2015, it had 248 days of good air.Pria said the trick was to take measurable step-by-step approach to ensure clean fuel, introduce catalytic converters, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">efficient public transport</a>, and move out industries. “Mexico City and Kathmandu are both situated in bowl-shaped valleys, but Kathmandu is where Mexico City was 30 years ago. We can offer lessons on how to clean the air. Don’t wait till the birds start falling dead from the sky, like what happened in Mexico City,” Pria told Kathmandu Valley mayors.The mayors discussed how policy changes to improve air quality like better fuel and vehicle standards were necessary to be passed by the national government, but other measures like pedestrianisation, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-city-for-cyclists/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bicycle lanes</a>, and public transport could be municipality priorities. But it was vital to have the political will to remove <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/air-pollution-survey-kathmandu,3998" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air pollution</a> and improve public health.Said ICIMOD director General David Molden: “Our organisation is based in Kathmandu Valley, and our research into air pollution can make a difference if it is used by national and local governments for policy interventions.” <h4>Mexico City’s lessons for Kathmandu</h4> Melba Pria spoke to Nepali Times about what Kathmandu can learn from Mexcio City about improving air quality.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4o4dBN3SeM&amp;feature=youtu.beNepali Times: You are based in Delhi and have set an example by riding an auto-rickshaw with a Mexican flag. How has that gone down? Melba Pria: At first everyone was very surprised that an ambassador would choose a small vehicle like that. But then, millions of Indians use it every day. The first thing we have to do is change our behaviour to be less polluting. I’m just using a vehicle that is much better for the environment. After all, I lived in Mexico City that was once the most polluted in the world. We are still fighting against pollution, and cannot say we have won the battle. <img width="640" height="553" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/636930209c7e80680e03c0e0jpeg.jpg" alt="">Kathmandu Valley and Mexico City have similar topography that traps pollution. How do you improve air quality when the source of pollution is so diverse?There is no one source. For many years, crop burning was rife in Mexico City. We have to re-educate the farmers, provide them with machinery, and the government has to help them. We have to look at the fuel we use. Our cars need to have catalytic converters. Industrial areas need to be far away from residential areas.How important was upgrading public transport in cleaning up Mexico City’s air?There is no magical fix, that is what you have to understand in Nepal. But public transportation is very important. We limited the use of private vehicles, and this encouraged people to buy fewer cars but when they did they bought energy efficient ones. We also have bicycle and bus lanes, as well as a large underground metro system.You are here to attend a Summit of Kathmandu Valley Mayors, how important is political will?Two wills are very important: that of the leaders and that of the people. They have to push each other. Mayors need policies that go across from national to local levels, and it does not matter what party you are. The population has to be aware that it is a health hazard for us and our children, and you and I have to change our ways.

Sonia Awale

Mayoral airs

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

bidya-sundar-shakya

Reckless fecklessness

Mayoral airs

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138