<img width="1050" height="751" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a676c9c7e80680e0599d8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>On 11 December, the Prime Minister and Cabinet's office tabled the 'bill to amend and integrate laws relating to the constitution and operation of Nepal special service' in the parliament secretariat.Prakash Panta, member of the National Assembly from the opposition Nepali Congress has requested the parliament to take the Special Service Bill (SSB) back. With allegations that the bill restricts the fundamental rights of citizens, there is concern that provisions of SSB will violate citizens’ fundamental right to privacy.NC parliamentarian Radheshyam Adhikari says this is a direct threat to  citizens' fundamental rights like privacy and freedom. "This bill shows that the government is against democracy and an open society, and does not believe in transparency and accountability. It will allow the government to snoop on anyone it does not like, and use the information to threaten or blackmail them.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/censuring-censorship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Censuring Censorship</a>, Editorial The SSB will allow the National Investigation Bureau (NIB) to collect any information on anyone without a warrant. The Act's Section 10, subsection 6 states: ‘In the course of information collection or counterintelligence, the Bureau can monitor, intercept, or record the conversations of people or organisations under suspicion or monitoring, made in public, or through any other audio visual or electronic medium.’The Bill also defines interception as the act of monitoring communication channels and gathering data. Though the Bureau has in the past spied on individuals, it is not authorised by law to do so. Now, the bill gives it the right.The Bill makes it compulsory for people to give up any information an  investigation officer requires, and if they refuse the investigators can acquire the information by spying on them if necessary.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-has-press-freedom-but-no-freedom-after-press/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal has press freedom, but no freedom after press, </a>Shashank GautamCritics say this has created the fear of misuse and breach of privacy in the name of investigation. It could also lead to leakage of information and violate fundamental freedom in direct contravention of the constitution.Article 8 of the Constitution states that information regarding a person’s residence, property, documents, statistics, correspondence, or character, cannot be violated unless otherwise required by law.Former Chief Justice Kalyan Shrestha says the bill increases the chance of misuse of power. "There should be clear provisions about where the right to privacy can be breached with monitoring and where it cannot. And there should also be provisions for legal redress if someone's privacy is breached when the government uses this right," he says.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gagging the press in installments</a>, Sewa Bhattarai Constitution expert Bipin Adhikari goes further, stressing that the law will endanger the country’s democratic polity itself. "A person at the highest level of government may use these provisions to undermine the system itself," he says, referring to how the former king Gyanendra Shah used Article 123 to take power.There is also precedent set by the former head of the Centre for the Investigation of the Abuse of Authority Lokman Singh Karki, who in 2013 operated a state within a state and regularly tapped the phone calls of 293  critical politicians, security officers, civil society leaders, judges and journalists. When Parliament decided to impeach him in 2016, the phone tapping was prominent in the list of reasons.However, there are some who say the danger to democracy has been blown out of proportion. The former head of the National Investigation Bureau Deviram Sharma says, "This law is not meant to snoop on ordinary citizens' phone conversations. It intends to monitor terrorism, antinational activities,  and the activity of dubious foreigners. A draft of the bill was actually prepared 17 years ago, and it has been tabled with timely amendments."Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-undermining-free-expression-hrw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Nepal undermining free expression: HRW</a>In fact, the draft bill does state that the law is needed to control ‘spying, armed insurgency, coup, inciting others to violence, aiding foreign countries or organisations, breaching the harmony between people of different classes, races, ethnic groups, religions and communities, secessionism, spreading hate and violence, armed and underground groups, illegal activities on border areas, etc.’But that is precisely what worries rights activists, who say that the definition of whom the state is allowed to spy on is so vague and broad that anyone in authority can use it to snoop on political or business rivals, the media or critics of the government.Government across the world have intelligence agencies that are given powers to spy on their own citizens, but these powers are strictly limited by law. Even so, some democratic states like India, the US and UK have made it  easier for intelligence agencies to spy on their citizens, especially when it comes to terrorism. But even there, there have been widespread complaints of misuse.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/creeping-control-over-the-press-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Creeping control over the press in Nepal,</a> Ajay Pradhan The government tried to pass a similar law to allow surveillance in the last days of the Panchayat in 1990, citing heightened activity of foreign spy agencies. But the Panchayat system collapsed, and with it the first attempt to allow the government to spy on its citizens.The law was discussed again during the Maoist war, and a draft was even drawn up in 2001, but it was not tabled. Even today, snooping on private citizens is barred by law, but that has not stopped the National Investigations Bureau and others to snoop on calls and messages.Security agencies in Nepal regularly use call/sms data in their investigations, which is actually illegal. Some have even made private information public. After Advocate Baburam Aryal and four others filed a case against the practice in February 2016, then Chief Justice Kalyan Shrestha and judge Devendra Gopal Shrestha had ruled that a person's right to privacy was "entirely private and fundamental" and limited the practice.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ifj-asks-nepal-to-revoke-media-gag/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IFJ asks Nepal to revoke media gag</a>The verdict stated that since there was no law which allowed security officers to tap phone calls or look at sms, the officers would have to take permission from the District Court before doing so."That is a temporary provision. In the long term, there needs to be balance between individual's right to privacy and the state's need to investigate. A full-fledged law is the permanent solution," says ex-Chief Justice Shrestha.The NIB was previously under the Home Ministry, but in February 2018 it was brought under the purview of the Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Secretariat. Although the Bureau’s main duty is to safeguard national security,  the proposed bill expands its area of work to include human trafficking, drug trafficking, illegal wildlife trade. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-creeping-coup/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> A creeping coup,</a> Editorial"The objective of the Bureau is to protect the national interest. Giving it unlimited powers increases chances of misuse, especially since departments under the PMO are not accountable to any other government department," says Hemanta Malla, former DIG of Nepal Police.There is still time for parliamentarians to debate the Bill and change its provisions if required, but the government appears to be intent on using its majority in Parliament to ram it through. Experts say the bill should have provisions for legal redress, and provisions against transfer or sale of information collected. NC MP Radheshyam Adhikari concludes: "The way it is reads now, it lets the government pry into people's lives, intimidate them and threaten to disclose their private details if they don't obey." "The government is pushing through a law that is above the constitution. The law will grant extraordinary powers to the Bureau any time, which are to be used only in emergencies. But there is not enough awareness in civil society about this. Yes, security forces should have powers, but there should also be check and balance. The law should provide for investigation of the Bureau, as government investigation will not be enough." <figure><img width="640" height="516" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a676e9c7e80680e0599d9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="640" height="514" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67719c7e80680e0599dajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"The Bill is meant to restrict undue activity from foreigners. For example, then chief secretary of the government Lilamani Pudel made a 9-point code of conduct about officers meeting foreigners. That angered them. Baburam Bhattarai had promised to not transfer any secretaries, but transferred one of them within 18 days of becoming PM. We need to stop this kind of meddling. The current protests against the Bill is instigated by such foreigners."

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Spooking Nepalis by snooping on them

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813110/636a45739c7e80680e04d386jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024"/><figcaption>Protests against the proposed Guthi Bill in Lalitpur on Thursday. Photos: Sanu Raj Maharjan</figcaption></figure>Foreigners are often puzzled why Nepalis never take to the streets despite the chronic failure of the government to provide basic services. It is true, Nepalis are a tolerant lot. But this week, something snapped.Citizens have been gathering on the streets, braving water cannons and tear gas to oppose a bill in Parliament that would dismantle the centuries-old tradition of guthi community trusts to manage religious sites and festivals.Coming soon after the Media Council Bill, and detention by police of a YouTuber for posting a satirical review of a bad movie, the slew of recent street protests reflects growing disillusionment with and defiance of a powerful Nepal Communist Party (NCP) government that is perceived to be corrupt to the core and uncaring of the public interest.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/scripted-arrest/">Scripted arrest</a>, Masta KC<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-has-press-freedom-but-no-freedom-after-press/">Nepal has press freedom, but no freedom after press</a>, Shashank Shrsethahttps://youtu.be/uf2W5I3r9hoIn the past months, citizens of Chapagaon, Baudhha and Thali have spontaneously risen up to blockade roads, demanding that they be repaired. Journalists took to the streets last month to protest provisions in the draft Media Council Bill that could lay hefty fines on journalists found to be violating officials guidelines.But the most organised protests so far have been against the Guthi Bill, and clips of Police attacking demonstrators with batons, kicks and water cannons have gone viral on the very media that the government seems intent on controlling.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/suppressed/">Suppressed</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/">Gagging the press in installments,</a> Sewa Bhattarai<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813110/636a45779c7e80680e04d387jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1333" height="2000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>There are more than 2,000 guthi all over Nepal, and they collectively own nearly 150,000 hectares of prime real estate. The management of such entities is traditionally passed down from one generation to the next.The Guthi Bill would create a central government authority to manage community trusts all over the country. It would have more executive powers than Guthi Sansthan, the current body that oversees trusts. Guthi members and heritage conservationists say the government is working with the land mafia to take over Guthi property.“The government doesn’t understand how the guthi system works,” said activist Alok Tuladhar, “it just want to usurp the land. The government’s intention is total control, not just the guthi but also free speech and other rights enshrined in the Constitution.”The protests that began on 9 June have snowballed with more groups and activists joining in. In Parliament, the opposition Nepali Congress halted proceedings on Tuesday, calling for the bill to be scrapped.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813110/636a457a9c7e80680e04d388jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2129" height="1419">Minister for Land Management and Cooperatives Padma Kumari Aryal defended the Bill in Parliament, saying it was intended to bring uniformity to guthi administration in order to protect heritage and culture. She says many trusts do not keep proper accounts and are not answerable to anyone.Minister for Home Affairs Ram Bahadur Thapa said the government accepted moral responsibility for the street violence, and promised to investigate. But protests escalated Thursday with a large demonstration in Patan’s Mangal Bazar (pictured above).Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/long-shadows/">Long Shadows</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/creeping-control-over-the-press-in-nepal/">Creeping control over the press in Nepal</a>, Ajay Pradhan

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Culture Revolution

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22579c7e80680e041783jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="878"/><figcaption>Bhim Chapagain/Nagarik</figcaption></figure>Bhim Chapagain in Nagarik, 10 JanuaryGovinda KC, who has been on 15 fast-unto-death protests to demand reforms in medical sector, began his 16th protest in Ilam on Wednesday after Parliament’s Education and Health Committee passed the Medical Education Bill in violation of the agreement made with him.He has begun a new phase of protests with six demands, asking for the Medical Education Bill to be amended before it is passed by the full Parliament. KC reached Ilam on Tuesday, and organised a press meet on Wednesday evening to announce his  protest at a private home near the Tundikhel.“By violating the agreement, the Parliamentary Committee has prepared a bill that is not oriented towards the people but the mafia,” he said. Hundreds of people attended to express solidarity with his protest.Some of KC’s previous demands have been fulfilled by this bill. For example, the bill restricts opening new medical colleges in Kathmandu for the next ten years, requires that medical colleges should be non-profit, and has provisions for scholarships to make medical education accessible to all.However, many previous demands remain unfulfilled, and KC has asked that the bill be amended to reflect word for word the agreement made with him on Aug 26 of this year. Besides that, he has also made the following demands:<ul><li>Tribhuvan University officials found guilty by the Gauri Bahadur Karki investigation committee should be sacked immediately. The Institute of Medicine should be restored with the rights taken over by TU. Planned affiliations through Agriculture and Forestry Ministry that defy the cabinet decision should be cancelled and the culprits punished.</li> 	<li>Medical Colleges should be opened in all seven provinces.</li> 	<li>The culprit of Nirmala Panta’s rape and murder case should be apprehended and punished, and those colluding in hiding the evidence should also be punished.</li> 	<li>Wartime crimes should be processed and the guilty punished according to international laws. Victims should be heard and transitional justice process should be concluded.</li> 	<li>Kathmandu University should roll back the high fees it is charging in defiance of the government’s decision, and those responsible be punished.</li></ul>KC began his protest by drinking a glass of water, and said he will only drink water during his protest. He added: “I am fighting for 30 million Nepalis, so I don’t care whether I live or die.”

Govinda KC fast-unto-death in Ilam

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;