<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b703c9c7e80680e060069jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1001"/><figcaption>Look east : Sunrise near Phaplu in Solu Khumbu after recent snowfall. Photo : MANISH PAUDEL</figcaption></figure>Ever since Time magazine printed a story in 1992 titled ‘Goodbye Shangrila’, Nepal’s travel trade and government have tried to clean up the country’s international image.Visitor arrivals plummeted during the conflict years, and even after the ceasefire there was negative publicity about the instability, strikes and shutdowns. The earthquake and the Blockade also <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/tourism-is-down-but-not-out-in-nepal,2262" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hit tourism hard</a>.But Nepal is such <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/a-solid-tourism-brand-for-nepal,845" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a solid brand</a>, and such a unique tourism product, that visitor numbers are picking up again. Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada is credited with picking <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bringing-in-two-miilion-tourists,3551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the target of 2 million</a> as a way to revive income from tourism to help balance Nepal’s growing trade deficit.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38900&amp;preview_nonce=76ffe3ead4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Nepal Brand,</a> EditorialIn the 1980s, tourism made up 22% of Nepal’s GDP. It now contributes only 4%, not necessarily because tourism is down, but because other sectors like remittances and trade have grown. Under Tourism Minister Rabindra Adhikari, 2020 was chosen to promote Nepal internationally so that we could reach the magic 2 million figure.But Adhikari was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-last-journey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">killed in a helicopter crash last year</a>, and travel trade executives say promotion activities have not been effective enough. President Bidya Devi Bhandari inaugurated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a> at Kathmandu’s main stadium on 1 January with fireworks and a flypast of military helicopters. But critics said the money would have been better spent on promotion abroad.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese tourist influx to Nepal in 2020</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Make sure you visit Nepal in 2020</a>, Anil ChitrakarInstead of promoting Nepal within Nepal, the government should have cleaned up Nepal. The country’s image has suffered lately because of social media posts by visitors shocked by Kathmandu’s squalour and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pollution</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism Minister Yogesh Bhattarai</a> has been ridiculed in social media for visiting Sydney this week, in the middle of a bushfire emergency, to promote Nepal. The government has also run into flak for a daft proposal to mandate very Nepali worker flying out to wear Visit Nepal t-shirts and caps.Bhattarai admits that airports need to be upgraded and service improved. But he adds: “There have been improvements at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu Airport</a>, we are taking steps to make the travel experience more pleasant.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara: Nepal's new aviation gateway</a>, Kunda DixitThe travel industry says the emphasis should be on making a Nepal trip as convenient as possible for visitors by streamlining the airport, its tedious visa-on-arrival process, and sprucing up the country’s crumbling infrastructure. There should also be a moratorium on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excavators digging roads over trekking trails</a>. The other deterrent is that Nepal is an expensive place to travel to because the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/high-cost-lays-aviation-low-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">price of aviation fuel here is double</a> that in other airports in the region.Says hotelier Yogendra Shakya: “Nepal is ideally placed to tap the vast tourism potential from India, China and Southeast Asia, and promotion should focus there first.”

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Long road back to Shangrila

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b703f9c7e80680e06006ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="570"/>On new year’s day, President Bidya Devi Bhandari inaugurated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a>, aimed at attracting <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bringing-in-two-miilion-tourists,3551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 million tourists</a> this year, at a lavish show in Kathmandu’s main stadium with fireworks and a flypast of military helicopters.There was only one thing wrong with the event: it was in Kathmandu and not in the countries from which it is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trying to attract visitors</a>. The money would have been better spent on targeted promotion in selected countries.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38885&amp;preview_nonce=4d8ff09bce&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Long road back to Shangrila</a>, Mukesh PokhrelIt might have been an even better idea to spend the money <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sprucing up Kathmandu airport</a>, fixing the roads, and cleaning up a once-beautiful Valley that has become an ulcer — before bothering to convince visitors to come.All seven provinces inaugurated the campaign with much fanfare. The parades were performed by Nepalis and the spectators were Nepalis. How does that help bring more tourists to Nepal?Well-intentioned it may be, but the entire Visit Nepal campaign has been mediocre and sloppy every step of the way — planned and executed by people without imagination or knowledge about the tourism industry.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese tourist influx to Nepal in 2020</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Make sure visit Nepal in 2020</a>, Anil ChitrakarThe travel industry is generally unenthusiastic, and it is understandable why:<ul><li>There has been insufficient preparation in the countries we should have prioritised for promotion</li> <li>Publicity and marketing should have started at least two years ago, not on January 1.</li> <li>The Ministry of Tourism has shown utter fecklessness by asking ambassadors to send senior ministers for the 1 January event in Kathmandu. (Why would anyone spoil a new year’s holiday and travel all the way at such short notice?)</li> <li><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Minister of Tourism Yogesh Bhattarai</a> travelled to Australia to launch the campaign in the middle of a national fire emergency.</li> <li>Bhattarai then announced that Nepali workers travelling abroad would mandatorily have to wear Visit Nepal caps and t-shirts. Everyone ignored this edict.</li> <li>Nepal Tourism Board lost its chief at the start of VNY 2020.</li> <li>There should be a revenue target, not a target of 2 million visitors.</li> <li>The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Air-jam,4196" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only aerial gateway to Nepal is a disgrace</a>. It seems purpose-built for maximum inconvenience, with an incomprehensible visa-on-arrival process and an excruciating queue at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/metal-free-ass/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘metal free’ x-ray</a>.</li> <li>Nepal sells itself for cheap, but it is an expensive destination to get to mainly because of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/high-cost-lays-aviation-low-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high cost of aviation fuel</a> which airlines are compelled to pass on to passengers.</li></ul>The miracle is that despite everything we do to dissuade them, visitors still come to Nepal. The country has such high brand equity that even though we have done everything to wreck it with all the squalour and decrepitude in Kathmandu and our Byzantine bureaucracy, tourists still come.We have even destroyed the countryside with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">haphazard road-construction along popular trekking routes</a> —  treacherous passages that even the bravest fear to tread.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara: Nepal's new aviation gateway</a>, Kunda DixitInstead of promoting Nepal within Nepal, the government should mark Visit Nepal 2020 by cleaning up Nepal in 2020. The trekking trails need to be preserved and cleared of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/a-plastic-republic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plastic garbage</a>, it has to be convenient and safe to get to the hinterland, and visitors should be encouraged to spend their money where it is needed the most — in the villages through which they hike.There is the idea that only Kathmandu, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/">Pokhara</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lumbini</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/">Chitwan</a> are Nepal’s tourist attractions. There is  fundamental ignorance among policymakers about what a tourist is looking for in Nepal — they do not come here to be extorted every step of the way with two-tier pricing for tickets for museums to domestic airlines.In the past, the Maoist insurgency, a decade of political instability with frequent shutdowns (hotel vans still carry ‘Tourist Only’ on windshields as a relic from that era), the earthquake and the Blockade could have been blamed for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/tourism-is-down-but-not-out-in-nepal,2262" target="_blank" rel="noopener">low visitor numbers</a>. We have no more excuses. Nepal now is a vibrant democracy with a strong government.Publicity within the country for Visit Nepal 2020 must be channeled to making people aware about cleanliness, maintaining infrastructure, reducing bureaucratic red tape, and streamlining procedures to make visitors’ stay as convenient as possible by treating them really as gods, not as wallets.Only then will tourism once again be a strong pillar of the economy. The industry that once contributed 22% to the national GDP now contributes only 4%. Tourism income can help Nepal redress it growing trade gap.Nepal’s location is ideal for tourism. We need to expand the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/keeping-nepal-airlines-airworthy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s national airline</a>, spread its network and rebuild the Nepal brand.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>The Nepali Times edition of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/484" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#484</a> from 8-14 January 2010 ten years ago was full of revelation of a fallout between Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai. Even the Ass made fun of it. But this paragraph from Prashant Jha’s column, Plain Speaking said it all:Nepal may still have been stuck in a bloody conflict but for Dr Baburam Bhattarai and his emphasis on democratic republicanism. The ongoing attempts to marginalise him within the Maoists reveal much about the balance of power and how counterproductive it could be for the peace and constitution-writing process.By snubbing Bhattarai and his ‘line’ again - as Prachanda did by depriving him of the deputy prime ministership in August 2008 and incorporating Kiran’s views at Kharipati two months later - the Maoists run the risk of undermining their achievements, repeating the mistakes of their 20th century communist counterparts, and failing.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b70429c7e80680e06006bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="324" height="500">...

THE NEPAL BRAND

<figure><img width="1000" height="1385" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25509c7e80680e0439c0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Article 5 of the 1950 Indo-Nepal Treaty implicitly forbids arms imports directly from third countries. Opposition to this provision has become the bedrock of Nepali nationalism over the years, and the demonstrated ability to flout it has catapulted some to become national heroes.From King Mahendra onwards, Nepal’s rulers have been tempted to use this shortcut to fame. India’s response has also been consistent: violators are made to pay a heavy price. The latest to play the nationalism card is Prime Minister Oli in fiery rhetoric against the Indian Blockade that landed him a thumping victory in the 2017 elections.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20774&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A yam between 3 boulders</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hitching-our-wagon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hitching our wagon</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20801&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal</a>, Ajit BaralSince then, he has pushed pro-China policies, signed the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), clumsily withdrawn Nepal from a BIMSTEC joint military exercise in Pune last September, and pressed ahead with the bilateral military exercises with China which could have been prompted by his party Co-Chair going down on his knees during a visit to India.Nepal now has been given <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/03/21/nepal-gains-access-to-ports/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">access to four Chinese ports</a>, ending the Indian monopoly on transit. Though symbolic for now, this is of monumental significance for Nepal since it is now no more India-locked. Article 5 has become redundant.But in a multi-polar world, Nepal has to tread carefully. Barely a month after Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali met US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington DC and discussed the Indo-Pacific Strategy, Co-Chair Dahal dashed off a statement supporting the beleaguered Venezuelan regime which the West is trying to bring down. An Indian Army Chief recently said Nepal’s ‘geography’ required it to tilt towards India, like Bhutan.Nepal now finds itself squarely in the middle of these two once bitter enemies, and now competing economic giants. The West has made common cause with India and other Asian countries in an attempt to contain China’s rise. Oli unwittingly finds himself in the middle of this widening power game -- now he does not just need <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-reassures-india-before-china-visit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to balance India and China</a>, but also the West. How well he handles these competing interests will determine whether Nepal will remain at peace with its territorial integrity intact, and whether Oli’s own political career will remain on track.Nepal’s politicians used to spout anti-India rhetoric at election time, and then undertake their very first official trip abroad to Delhi to expiate for their sins and start a fresh page of cooperation based on the rhetoric of historical ties and cultural affinity. Nepal’s elite and their Indian counterparts ended up with business as usual.It is noteworthy that neither Nepal nor India have made any attempt to stabilise Nepal’s economy, and ensure prosperity. The main preoccupation of Nepal’s politicians has been to remain in power as long as possible for which they sought Indian blessings. New Delhi, for its part, was happy as long as Nepal remained a source of soldiers and doormen. For this arrangement to work, Nepal was expected to pay deference and remain aligned southwards. This marriage of convenience lasted nearly six decades through absolute monarchy, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10616#.XE6QYNIza70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Maoist uprising</a>, a <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/three-kings-in-four-days-nepal-massacre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">royal massacre</a>, and the writing of a disastrous constitution that threatens the nation’s very existence.But this status quo has changed with the awakening of the sleeping dragon, China. The reconfiguration of regional and global power, if handled well, could bring considerable economic benefit to Nepal. Failure to manage it may spell mortal danger. Prime Minister Oli is also at the crossroads of his political life, and given fragile health, his focus will be on the legacy he wants to leave behind.  Ideally, India could swallow its pride, accept that fact that the 2015 Blockade was a mistake, recognise Chinese influence in Nepal as inevitable, and work with Beijing to lift Nepal out of poverty for a win-win-win situation for all three sides. This is the best, yet least likely, outcome.Indians, like the Nepalis, are an emotive lot and logical long term thinking is not their forte. New Delhi is currently playing Oli off against Dahal and wants a more favourably aligned government in Nepal which they have easily executed in the past and know they can repeat. Oli thinks (wrongly) that he can get China, India and Nepal to work together for the benefit of all, even though New Delhi abhors the idea of Nepal as an intermediary between India and China.For Nepal, India is a known entity. China is an unknown quantity. We do not know if China will come to Nepal’s rescue in times of need, and many Nepalis feel more comfortable with India (despite shortcomings) than with China. There are lessons here for India too, and it cannot be business as usual. New Delhi has got to be more serious about the promises it makes to Nepal.The Indian focus on the Tarai region since 2015 has ruined whatever was left of trust between Kathmandu and New Delhi. ‘One Madhes One Pradesh’ would have divided Nepal horizontally, triggering unimaginable problems. Both sides made a complete mess of it, and it is time for India to let Kathmandu handle this problem to the best of its ability.India’s policy on Nepal has been to keep it at the level of ‘controlled anarchy’ so Nepali leaders have to keep shuttling to New Delhi.  But history has shown anarchy cannot always be controlled. And instead of blaming China for trying to encircle India, it would behoove New Delhi to be magnanimous towards its smaller neighbours and nudge them along on the road to development.A stable and economically vibrant Nepal will contribute to the success of both economies, and help stabilise the region as a whole. Spheres of influence are obsolete, it is time to get on with improving the lives of our people. Bhairaja Panday is a former senior UN official and he is currently MD of Invest Nepal Pvt. Ltd.

Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West

<img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a254d9c7e80680e0439bfjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Eminent Persons Group (EPG) mandated to review past bilateral treaties between India and Nepal and provide recommendations completed its work in June last year. But it is still under wraps. Why was the eight-member Group formed in the first place, and so much money and time wasted?It was Nepal’s idea to set up a group made up of notable people from India and Nepal to come up with a mutually acceptable plan to reset bilateral ties in keeping with the times. Nepal has for a long time wanted to revise some of its treaties with India, particularly the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20774&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A yam between 3 boulders</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hitching-our-wagon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hitching our wagon</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20802&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West</a>, Bhairaja PandeySigned 70 years ago, the Treaty of Peace and Friendship needs revision because it was signed by Prime Minister Mohan Shumsher Jung Bahadur Rana whose sole intention was to perpetuate his clan’s hold on power, rather than protect the national interest. The protocol was also askew, since it was signed on India’s behalf by its ambassador in Kathmandu and not Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.Nepal also had issues with Clause 7, which states: ‘The governments of India and Nepal agree to grant, on a reciprocal basis, to the nationals of one country in the territories of the other the same privileges in the matter of residence, ownership of property, participation in trade and commerce, movement and other privileges of a similar nature.’ Being a much smaller country, Nepal wants this changed and also wants to ensure that its gigantic and militarily stronger southern neighbour respects the Treaty. India has blockaded its border with Nepal several times, using ambiguities in Clause 5, which states: ‘The Government of Nepal shall be free to import, from or through the territory of India, arms, ammunition or warlike material and equipment necessary for the security of Nepal. The procedure for giving effect to this arrangement shall be worked out by the two Governments acting in consultation.”(Emphases added)Nepal first proposed the formation of an Eminent Persons Group in 2011 when Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai visited India. According to the Indian media at the time, New Delhi welcomed this idea, but there is reason to doubt it. India has always wanted to maintain the status quo in its relations with Nepal. If it indeed was supportive, Delhi would not have dragged its feet and taken three years just to prepare the terms of reference for the EPG, and two more years to actually form it.But in February 2016, the formation of the EPG was suddenly expedited because of New Delhi’s need to mend its ties with Nepal after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/09/23/blockade-against-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blockade</a>. This should offer us clues as to why India is now reluctant to receive the report painstakingly negotiated and drafted in nine meetings over two years.  If the members of the EPG are vexed, they are hiding it well, saying that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian Prime Minister Modi</a> has not received the report “owing to his busy schedule”. Some members of the EPG are former ambassadors and are trained to be diplomatic in their language, but it is clear they are getting fed up of telling it like it is.Nepal had wanted the report submitted to Narendra Modi when he was in Nepal for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/sorry-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIMSTEC Summit</a> in August last year, but India refused saying that it would not discuss any bilateral issues during a multilateral forum.  The suspicion is that the Modi government does not agree with some of the content of the joint report which recommends that the 1950 Treaty be replaced with a new one proposing a ‘smart and regulated’ border and consider the proportionate sizes of the two countries on the issue of national treatment for citizens. These ‘concessions’ to Nepal apparently have displeased hawks in India’s ruling BJP, which fears they may be used against it by the opposition ahead of India’s 2019 general election.But this argument is untenable. The recommendations are not binding and the Modi government could have easily glossed over them if they really undermined India’s national interest or were expected to have negative repercussions on the 2019 elections.  Moreover, the Indian contingent in the EPG was led by Bhagat Singh Koshyari, a senior BJP leader and RSS veteran, who would not have agreed to recommendations that the Modi government would have objections to. India thinks Nepal can be made to wait, and this could be the mindset prompting  Modi to haughtily ignore the report. This dangerous, colonial era mindset of not giving a sovereign country equal respect has had, and will continue to have, foreign policy consequences for India in its neighbourhood.India surely does not want such an image as it advances towards becoming a regional superpower

Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal

It has been an accepted practice that any Nepali leader makes a symbolic visit south to India after assuming office. But Prime Minister Oli's India visit this week is quite different although it looks like he is just following the tradition.The reason has a lot more to do with New Delhi’s past behaviour towards Nepal. It has now realised its policy was counter-productive and is laying down the red carpet for the leader of a Red coalition.After its failure to get a constitution that suited its interest in 2015, New Delhi imposed a five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/blockade-that-benefitted-no-one,660">Blockade</a> on Nepal. Oli became prime minister just as the Blockade started to bite on a country still reeling from the aftermath of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">April 2015 earthquake</a>, and took a strong stand against India. Standing up to India became Oli’s successful electoral platform, and it propelled him back to power in partnership with the Maoists two months ago. In fact, the more New Delhi tried to pressure Oli, the more he bounced back like a rubber ball.In India itself there has been growing criticism from the opposition about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s failure to stop Chinese inroads in the neighbourhood, including in Nepal. The Indian media analysts have been paranoid about Kathmandu tilting towards the Chinese axis.Prime Minister Modi has spoken to Oli several times after his election, and dispatched Minister of External Affairs<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/aftershocks-of-the-blockade/"> Sushma Swaraj to Kathmandu on a fence-mending mission</a>. New Delhi knows that it will not gain anything by weakening a prime minister who is probably Nepal’s most powerful elected leader in history.But the Oli visit is also an opportunity for Nepal to set relations with India on a more even keel. It is time to reboot bilateral relations and put the past behind us. Prime Minister Oli need not sign any new agreements, he just has to make sure past agreements are implemented, and try to resolve the growing trade imbalance. That itself will be an important gauge of the success of this mission.Shekhar Kharel is a freelance journalist.Read also:' <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-different-this-time/">What's different this time?</a>', Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a>,  Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

Red carpet for a red leader

<figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/1"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9589c7e80680e02f2a9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="920"/><figcaption>#1 (2000)</figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/213"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95b9c7e80680e02f2aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/226"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95e9c7e80680e02f2abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="1002"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/417"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9609c7e80680e02f2acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/575"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9639c7e80680e02f2adjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="982"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/174"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9659c7e80680e02f2aejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="938"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/204"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9689c7e80680e02f2afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="936"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/255"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96b9c7e80680e02f2b0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="946"><figcaption> </figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli is in New Delhi this weekend, following a tradition laid down by predecessors to first visit India after assuming office. Oli himself had visited New Delhi in 2016, after India lifted the five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">Blockade</a>.So, what is new this time? Not much.Nepal has had 12 leaders, some of them serving more than once, since 2000. India has seen three Prime Ministers in this period, with each hosting multiple Nepali PMs and a king.In every Nepali leader’s India visit, the two countries have dwelt on the same issues: building trust, strengthening bilateral ties and agreeing on large projects that need to materialise.Oli’s visit will not be any different even though he has emerged as the strongest PM in Nepal’s recent history. And he is going to India after his strong nationalistic stance won his party <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/">a landslide victory</a> in elections.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96e9c7e80680e02f2b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Like any Nepali PM’s visit to India in the past, it will be yet another courtesy visit,” concludes political analyst Lok Raj Baral. “It will not change anything fundamentally.”Ahead of his three-day visit, Oli told Parliament on Tuesday that he will push to implement past agreements instead of signing new ones: Pancheshwar, Tarai roads, post-earthquake reconstruction loans.Most of the other political and development issues that Oli may raise  this time have been discussed over and again in every Nepali PM’s India visit in the past, as shown by the Nepali Times coverage (above).The two MPs will remotely lay the foundation of the 900MW Arun III hydroelectricity project in Province 1, but that is not a new project either. In fact, Oli’s own UML party had sabotaged the World Bank-funded Arun III in the early ‘90s. Pancheshwar has been in limbo for over 20 years, and it is slow going on the Tarai roads.Oli is sure to broach his pet subject: inland water transport even though Foreign Affairs Minister Pradeep Gyawali has ruled out any MoU citing lack of preparation. Oli told Parliament that his visit will not bring shame to Nepalis, implying that he will not discuss the contents of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/new-constitution-has-regressive-flaws-but-can-improve-it-as-we-go-along,2363">Constitution</a>.Even in 2016, Modi had met a resolute Oli who was unwilling to listen to New Delhi on amending the state as demanded by the Madhesi parties. This time he will enjoy greater leverage when he sits down with Modi, who seems to have realised that his policy to isolate Oli has backfired.In an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">interview with Nepali Times last week</a>, Foreign Affairs Minister Gyawali said India might announce a special package of support to Nepal as a goodwill gesture. Even if Oli succeeds in rebuilding mutual trust and rebooting relations with India, that will be quite an achievement.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/red-carpet-for-a-red-leader/">Red carpet for a red leader</a>', Shekhar Kharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a> , Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

What is different this time?

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.