Traditional thangka and paubha painters spend months hunched in small rooms making meticulous pieces of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/golden-deities">devotional art </a>that follow ancient canons and style. These are not starving <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-world-of-a-working-artist">artists </a>hoping to make it big, these are professionals who have trained for years under strict rules and masters. They know their level, and know that a piece will take about three months of full-time work. They set a standard price that reflects three months’ wages in Nepal. Local and foreign buyers visit the studios regularly, to acquire the pieces to keep or sell. That is often the last the artists see of their work -- they do not know where in the world it has gone, or how many times it has changed hands and for what prices. This can be a problem because<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/five-decades-of-lok-chitrakar"> traditional art</a> is often unsigned, so artists go unrecognised. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/tsherin-sherpa-returns-home-to-takpa">Collectors and galleries</a> may also be hesitant to buy or exhibit a piece if they cannot say for sure where it came from. This is an even bigger problem in thangka and paubha because making pristine copies of the works of masters is not seen as forgery or a violation of intellectual property, but as a test of their ability to adhere to sacred tenets.&nbsp; “When senior masters paint a piece, and photos of it get out, it gets copied immediately. I have heard stories of collectors selling these copies as if they were the original,” says Thimi-based artist Sundar Shrestha, who made a switch from <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/The-world-beyond-thangkas,3139">contemporary art to paubha</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250810140828_00b0ced5e1745c2c168fef4d4124f2165cf1a84a42376da96da2c7b62b00d870.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250810140828_00b0ced5e1745c2c168fef4d4124f2165cf1a84a42376da96da2c7b62b00d870" data-rendition-name="original" width="832" height="1248" loading="lazy" alt="Digital verification of traditional art"> </figure>  The Kathmandu-based <a href="https://himalayanartcouncil.org/">Himalayan Art Council</a> is trying to resolve the issues of ownership and provenance of traditional Nepali art by building a cutting-edge system that issues a tamper-proof digital certificate to each artwork.&nbsp; The system tracks each time there is a transaction involving the piece, and provides a royalty to the artist each time. In doing so, the system also creates a detailed inventory of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/unnamed-masters-of-nepal-s-art-identified?mibextid=Zxz2cZ">Nepal’s traditional artforms</a>, which will prove valuable for future scholars or repatriation efforts. THE TEAM Behind this initiative is a team with activist-entrepreneur Sean Howell, curator and museologist Meena Lama, Mercantile CEO Sanjib Rajbhandari, and blockchain expert Bijay Bogati. Howell’s interest in the project started out through a connection to Nepal that began with a love for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/red-panda-on-the-red-list">red pandas</a>, and an invitation to promote <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/shrinking-tourism-s-ecological-footprint">eco-tourism</a>. Howell has a diverse background in finance, the tech world and social communication. He has been art commissioner for Seattle, and knows all about blockchains, the technology underpinning this art initiative. “I saw that there were many people working in art preservation in Nepal, and that current, living artists were facing problems,” explains Howell. He &nbsp;recognised that these problems had already been solved elsewhere in the world. “This technology is a low-cost, high-value solution that ensures artists receive fair value for their work while also establishing a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/digital-protection-for-nepal-s-art">digital archive of Nepali art</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250810140832_65be31ea44d6076462ce36b2d96594a874f42c24915459f23c7f75471e1547ed.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250810140832_65be31ea44d6076462ce36b2d96594a874f42c24915459f23c7f75471e1547ed" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Digital verification of traditional art"> </figure>  "Trust is paramount for collectors," says Howell. "<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-craft-of-art">Thangka art</a> has high market value globally that is not reflected in local transactions due to the opaque nature of its sales." Building the actual system is a team of software engineers that works out of the Mercantile office in Kathmandu, led by Bijay Bogati. Bogati transitioned to blockchain in 2019 after working with Khalti as a founding engineer, and held remote senior software engineer positions for German and US-based companies. “The most interesting part of this project is how this futuristic technology is being used in Nepal to create a digital ledger of this huge legacy of traditional artists and art,” says the soft-spoken Bogati. Holding together the whole operation is curator Meena Lama, who has an MA in Museology and Buddhist Collections. She says, “While there is undoubtedly a commercial side to this project, the most important thing is that it helps digitally archive traditional Himalayan art and makes it much easier to study. Especially as many of the country’s finest works of art are held in private collections and risk being lost to time, damage, or disappearance. To kickstart the project, Lama and the team selected fifty significant pieces of thangka and paubha from different artists, certified them at no cost, and exhibited them at the Patan Museum last month. Lama’s connection to the art world and Bogati’s expertise in this new technology have also been important to get artists to buy in to the project. “Initially, other artists and I were a little skeptical,” admits Sundar Shrestha. “But I had worked with Meena on exhibits before, and Bijay’s grasp of the tech put me to ease and made me quite excited.” THE TECH In the big picture, blockchain technology is part of a movement in tech referred to as ‘Web3’, which is widely regarded as the next evolution of the internet. Instead of central authorities that control data and user-experience, such as Facebook or Google, Web3 aims to devolve power over many users, giving them more of a say over their identity, online interactions, and transactions. One of the goals is to make digital records as reliable as physical ones, and secure enough for banking or legal transactions. Art and cultural heritage can be protected by the same trusted tools. The Himalayan Art Council’s project follows long-established international standards by adding a secure, centralised digital layer to every record, which safeguards traditional art, gives it global credibility, and connects it to the same trusted systems used by leading institutions around the world. The key concept for Web3 and the Himalayan Art Council’s project is blockchain, a technology without central authority that records transactions in a way that is both secure and transparent. Each transaction is a ‘block’, and is linked mathematically to the transaction that happened before it to create a ‘chain’ of digital records across computers, following the same security protocols used in banking. Altering the details of any one transaction requires all the computers that are linked to agree, making tampering or fraud virtually impossible.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250810140832_5c4da6fbadb885af81ceab7f223a7ef041fb62d718a1c5543ec9cba5414b9499.png" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20250810140832_5c4da6fbadb885af81ceab7f223a7ef041fb62d718a1c5543ec9cba5414b9499" data-rendition-name="original" width="1023" height="690" loading="lazy" alt="Digital verification of traditional art"> </figure>  Himalayan Art Council would take varied data about the painting: authorship, high-resolution images, chain of ownership, transaction history and feed it into an algorithm that creates a ‘hash’, or a unique identifier for that particular piece. This hash then is turned into a QR code included on the art. Then anyone can scan the code to check the piece’s history and legitimacy. A key feature is that every time the piece is resold, the original artist can opt to automatically receive royalties worth up to 10% of the value, and can choose whether this money goes directly to their family, a trust, or a monastery. Bogati points out a key caveat: “The word blockchain is strongly associated with cryptocurrency, which is not legal in Nepal, and not what we are doing. We are using the features of blockchain that make it an excellent system of digital registry.” THE ARTISTS As an artist, Sundar Shrestha says the Himalayan Art Council initiative inspires hope especially because it is finally about paying royalties.&nbsp; “This is a new concept in traditional art,” says Shrestha, who notes that his Newari traditional artist forebears painted their whole life, often with no recognition and remuneration.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250810140840_4103d15ff14d9042063f3ae2ee3ae159cd7a37b11b34f2c9edbe7cdccd5f520f.png" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250810140840_4103d15ff14d9042063f3ae2ee3ae159cd7a37b11b34f2c9edbe7cdccd5f520f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1804" height="2014" loading="lazy" alt="Digital verification of traditional art"> </figure>  Over the lifetime of a body of work through multiple re-sales, the royalty system could make traditional art more worthwhile as a profession, and get more Nepali artists to take it up.However, Shrestha admits that the traditional system also has its merits, and will not go away very soon. He says, “Artists are incredibly focused on their work, because they have to be. Collectors and sellers understand art markets in Nepal and abroad much better than we do, and they bring in regular work that gives us an income and keeps us from starving.” Part of the skill of a collector is the exhibitions they hold or the relationships they cultivate in high society, which they want to have some secrecy about, says Shrestha, who plans to use both channels to sell his work. The Himalayan Art Council’s digital initiative would also remove the taboo about talking about the price of traditional art. “Sometimes a student’s painting might sell for higher than the master’s, which can be disrespectful.” Says Shrestha. “And the general sentiment is that paubha are sacred and should be a meditation and a discipline, and that artists are not in it for commercial reasons.”

Vishad Raj Onta

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Digital verification of traditional art

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937a99c7e80680e03fe50jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1014"/>Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and Machine Learning are buzzwords we are going to hear a lot more in 2019.The Third Revolution in information technology means the country further ahead in AI will be the new global superpower. Competition is fierce between China and the United States, with both using unconventional means to get back at each other – as seen by the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada under American pressure, the allegations that the security of iPhones are compromised by Chinese-made chips.In his new book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, Beijing-based technology executive Kai-Fu Lee analyses the background of information technology advances in both counties, but concludes that China is moving faster on AI and could overtake Silicon Valley because of less strict privacy laws in its huge home market.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/it-is-all-about-it-in-nepal,3887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's all about IT, Sahina Shrestha</a>Lee warns that AI could entrench global inequalities as well as disparities within countries, taking jobs away from traditional sectors. While these issues are a source of worry because of what it means for humanity’s future, China does not seem to be held back by any such fears. In fact, it is excited about catching up with the US on applications for AI in everyday life.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937ab9c7e80680e03fe51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="174"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937ac9c7e80680e03fe52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="637"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The book starts with the failure of world’s best Go player, Ke Jie, to Google’s AlphaGo in 2017. China’s IT companies fast-tracked development by imitating Silicon Valley’s most successful products and outdid them in expanding user base and profits: Uber to Didi, Google to Baidu, or eBay to Taobao. Once a product was successful, thousands of mimetic companies were spawned in China, and the Americans suspect these companies had government protection.While some argue that restrictions in China stifle creativity, Lee writes that imitation is the first step in generating new ideas and products. In order to compete with many companies with similar products, Chinese entrepreneurs fight fiercely like hungry wolves.They continuously update products to please Chinese users, change marketing strategies to compete with opponents and build the special business models based on the unique user behaviour of the Chinese.China’s central government helps businesses by investing money and provides policy support for AI research. Local governments are encouraged to build industrial parks for AI business, and the state works closely with technology companies to build new intelligent cities. On the other side of the Pacific, however, the US government is reducing its technology budget letting AI adapt to the current infrastructure.Lee says the AI algorithm is to computing what electricity was in the last technological revolution. China has the advantage of combining its huge data sets with AI applications. In the AI era, the country or company with more data can make more information decisions and thereby more profit.China’s digital infrastructure makes it possible to collect every movement of every citizen down to the last detail, erasing the boundary between online and offline. The advantage the Americans have, Lee writes, is that they can apply AI in businesses and the credit market because of its huge cache of structured trading data.Unlike American IT companies which prefer to establish a completely new product and sell it around the world, the Chinese buy local companies and support them with money, technology and marketing experience. Silicon Valley makes sure every product is perfect before launching, while the Chinese fix bugs on the go.Lee says no matter which model wins out in the next IT revolution, it is time to examine the threats to human society from an omnipotent artificial intelligence as it replaces work that needs physical and mental inputs in medicine, accounting, translations, etc.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Cross-Cutting/Start-ups-need-staying-power,439" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Start-ups need staying power</a>, Ashutosh TiwariBut as people are freed up from repetitive chores, AI will also bring new job opportunities just like farmers became factory workers during the Industrial Revolution. Besides, Lee writes from his own experience with battling cancer, there are things like love and friendship that can never be replaced by a machine. Or, can it?

The AI super powers

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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