<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205539c7e80680e0b28adjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Frontline workers waiting for their booster dose at a hospital in Kathmandu last week. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As elsewhere in the world, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-covid-wave-infects-nepals-frontliners/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron-led third wave</a> in Nepal is starting to peak, but experts say the pandemic is far from over. The Health Ministry had previously projected new cases to soar to 20,000 a day, and the Omicron surge to peak in mid-February. But the fact that the variant spread rapidly like wildfire right across the country giving a majority of the population milder symptoms meant that it equipped them with antibodies to fight the infection.At Nepal’s biggest infectious diseases centre at Teku Hospital, virologist Sher Bahadur Pun predicts that the third wave will most likely peak in a few days, or by the end of next week.“For the past week, I have observed that the number of people coming in for tests and consultation every day has decreased by a half,” Pun says. “Of course, not everyone is coming to the hospital, but this is the beginning of the end of this wave.” To be sure, the government’s daily Covid-19 figures are gross under-estimations. Mostly symptomatic patients are testing, thus registering a very high positivity rate. Infected people with flu-like symptoms are isolating at home without a PCR test. There are also people self-testing with kits available at pharmacies, and these infections are not in the official tally.Even so, figures from elsewhere show <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Omicron surge</a> lasts only for a month or two. South Africa, where the variant was first detected in December, is over the hump. The UK and parts of the US have also passed their peaks. Many countries, including Australia, are now removing restrictions."It is too early to be sure about exactly when the high number of cases will subside completely," Andrew Pollard, of the team that developed the Astra Zeneca vaccine, told Nepali Times in an email interview from Oxford. "The main issue with rapid spread of Omicron is for the unvaccinated who may be at risk of severe disease, particularly if they are older adults and those with other health conditions."The spread of Omicron in Kathmandu Valley is expected to reach an equilibrium soon, with a steep fall in cases, says Bangkok-based public health expert Sushil Koirala. But he warns slower-moving outbreaks may continue outside the valley where the population is thinly spread. “These next 10 days are critical. It will tell us if the Omicron variant is indeed a quiet pass to a pandemic end-game, or we still have a big human cost to pay,” Koirala adds. “There is still little clarity on how severe this variant will be to those who are still unvaccinated and those who had the vaccines many months ago.” <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205569c7e80680e0b28aejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The World Health Organisation (WHO) last week issued an <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1108932" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">optimistic projection</a> that the pandemic would probably be over during 2022 — provided inequalities in the vaccine coverage and treatment are addressed.  Global health researcher and economist Christopher J L Murray <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">writing for the journal Lancet</a> also said that after the Omicron wave, ‘Covid-19 will return but the pandemic will not.’ Pollard also explains that once health systems can cope with Covid-19, the pandemic could be considered over, but that doesn’t mean that the virus will be gone. "We have a pandemic because of pressure on health systems and deaths. With growing global immunity as a result of vaccination and previous waves of infection, both severe disease and deaths should decline during 2022," he says. Despite this, health experts in Nepal warn that severe infections needing hospitalisation have a lag of a few weeks after the surge in infections. And despite being a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">milder strain</a> that primarily only affects the upper respiratory tract, Omicron can still lead to serious diseases in the elderly and people with co-morbidities. Indeed, ICU admissions and those needing ventilator support in hospital have tripled in one month, although nowhere near the figures in April-May. Also, the seven-day average for daily fatalities have remained below five.  Says infectious disease specialist Anup Subedee: “It will still take some time and a few more variants before the pandemic comes to an end. So our health system should be ever ready with the management and treatment of Covid-19, isolation and contact tracing.” Virologist Pun at Teku agrees: “We are now moving from pandemic to endemic, but this does not mean that we can sound the all clear. We must continue mass vaccinations and safety measures.” The general consensus is that increased vaccine coverage with boosting, more testing, whole genome sequencing to detect variants, and public adherence to safety measures will determine whether there will be a new surge, or if the virus will taper off. Nepal has 20 million doses of vaccines in stock for those waiting for first and second jabs, and has started booster shots for high risk groups. However, communication on location, eligibility and requirements for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination</a> centres is confusing and inadequate. With reports from India, Denmark and the Philippines of the even more transmissible ‘stealth Omicron’ sub-variant BA.2 that can evade PCR detection, Nepal needs to continue vigilance. This is also important to determine if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Delta variant</a> is still circuiting and how dominant it is. “Our Covid figures from the last four days strongly suggest that we have passed the peak,” confirms Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular  Dynamics. “But we must keep a close watch on next week’s numbers to know for sure if the cases are just levelling off, still peaking, or if it was just a momentary decline.”

Sonia Awale

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Omnipresent Omicron starts to lose its edge

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161148/636d1db19c7e80680e0af3d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="767" height="575"/><figcaption>Security personnel and relatives of the deceased attend a mourning at the premise of infectious disease hospital in Pokhara. Photos: BARSHA KAFLE</figcaption></figure>A 79-year-old woman lay on the emergency bed, diagnosed with pneumonia due to Covid-19. Even as she was gasping for breath she had a smile on her face, handing over an invitation card to the attending doctor who was also her relative.Her grandson’s wedding was four days later. Family members from across the world had flown into Pokhara for the ceremony. She died of severe acute respiratory distress syndrome with multiple organ failure a day before the wedding, and it had to be cancelled.As her physician, I had sleepless nights when her condition worsened. We <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">health-care workers are also human beings</a>. When we lose near and dear ones it takes a toll on our physical and mental health, we grieve when our patients die. We may hide our emotions but we suffer all the same.The woman was just one of many relatives I have lost during this pandemic. As I grieved with family members gathered at the hospital, we were once again reminded of the Buddhist teachings about impermanence. Yet none of us is ever ready.“But it must be easier for you to face death as a doctor,” one of the mourners said to me. No, it is just as difficult. If not more, because as a physician I had the added responsibility of saving her life.Army men dressed in PPE from head to toe had arrived to take her body for safe disposal. Relatives from across the world who had come to celebrate a wedding ended up attending a funeral.The Gandaki Province government established Nepal’s first provincial infectious disease hospital in July 2020. Since then, it has managed nearly 1,300 Covid-19 cases at a cost of Rs500 million.Tha Gandaki Province government established Nepal's first provincial infectious disease hospital in July 2020. Since then, it has managed nearly 1, 300 Covid-19 cases saving Rs500 million out of pocket expenditure of common people.We have lost 52 people to the coronavirus in the same period. The Covid-19 mortality rate in this provincial hospital is 4.1%, relatively high compared to the total number of people who were hospitalised.The global death rate now stands at 1.97% with a total of 5,318,277 fatalities. This figure is exceptionally high given it has only been two years. Even then, this figure does not include <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the social, mental and economic consequences</a> to family and friends of the deceased.But each Covid death is also a lesson for us to learn from. Most of these deaths could have been prevented if only Nepal had a robust primary health care system, and if preventive measures were more strictly enforced.With the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rise of new variants like Omicron</a>, it is also advisable to up our vaccination drive and we should also start administering boosters to vulnerable populations given our stock of doses and those that are on the pipeline.A man in his late thirties was isolating at home in Pokhara after getting infected. He just had a common cold but I requested him to undergo hospital-based isolation as he was symptomatic. But just a few days after getting admitted, his symptoms worsened and his condition deteriorated. He was then transferred to another hospital, and died soon after.This was not a case that should have been fatal. Even after 12 years of clinical experience, some of the Covid-19 outcomes I have encountered in the past year have been unexpected and shocking. It must have been devastating for the young man’s family and friends.Earier this year, when a 86-year-old mukhiya from Mustang died at our hospital of Covid complications, hundreds of Thakalis travelled to Pokhara to show their respect to the deceased despite the coronavirus surge at the time. Young or old, the virus was indiscriminate.In November 2020, I myself had to self-isolate with an upper respiratory infection due to a coronavirus infection. I thought I would not survive the excruciating body ache, sleepless nights and high anxiety level. During those horrific 10 days at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/at-the-covid-19-frontlines-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bayalpata Hospital in Achham</a> I was battling an infection that I was treating my patients for.An elderly couple had been admitted to our hospital with Covid, both of them had severe symptoms. The husband died within a few hours of admission, but his wife was not aware of his passing until she became critically ill herself, and the family decided to tell her the truth. She passed away a week after her spouse. Medical staff usually have seen it all, but so moved with sorrow they mourned too.Holistic <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">health care</a> is the central core of modern medicine. But the caregivers can provide only acute biomedical care to alleviate the suffering of Covid patients. Their psycho-social wellbeing and that of their family members are often ignored. And we have not even begun to think about the mental health and trauma of the frontline workers.Over 800,000 Nepalis have been infected with the coronavirus and 12,852 have died of the disease. It is time we study this data, in particular the common causes of Covid-19 deaths in Nepal. Is it heart attack, blockage of vessels in the lungs, multiple organ failure or acute respiratory distress syndrome?We must reshape our health policies based on these facts and evidence. We must ensure adequate preparation with ICU beds, oxygen supply, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/donated-ventilators-gather-dust-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ventilators</a> and other equipment that were in short supply earlier this year.Only then can we design a robust and customised care system to protect our population from future surges.Bikash Gauchan is the Executive Director of the Infectious and Communicable Disease Hospital in Gandaki Province.

Diary of a Covid frontline worker in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12069c7e80680e0a98b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="844" height="570"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>I knew I wanted to get vaccinated as soon as the Covid-19 jabs were made available to the general public in the US, and that when it was my turn I would have access to it.It was not the same for people in Nepal, and I remember family and friends back home telling me how hard it was to get a vaccine earlier this year. And a lot of it depended on whether you had the right connections.People in Nepal were <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/anger-grows-in-nepal-over-covid-vaccine-delays/">struggling to find their first doses</a>, whereas in the US people did not want to get vaccinated against Covid-19 despite a raging pandemic. Those without access to jabs were confused with those who did not want to get vaccinated.All international students studying in the US must provide proof of immunisations against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/">MMR (Measles, Mumps and Rubella)</a>, Varicella Tdap (Tetanus, Diphtheria, Pertussis) and Meningitis.I completely understand the reasoning behind requiring those vaccinations, it is to keep people safe, and it never entered my mind to argue the logic.Did I ever feel like my freedoms were being curtailed because I needed to show proof of those inoculations? No. Did I feel like someone was infringing on my choice? No. Did I have a problem getting the necessary vaccine for the greater good? No.So why is it different with the Covid vaccine? The main reason to be vaccinated was so that I do not spread the infection further, as well as protect myself. The sooner we all got vaccinated, the sooner we would be post-pandemic.Which is why it surprised me that unlike <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/too-early-for-nepal-to-let-its-guard-down/">Nepal</a>, where the vaccine acceptance rate is 97%, many in the US were choosing to not to get the jab because it curtailed their freedom of choice. The anti-vaxxers were also anti-maskers — and the puzzling thing was that they would however not protest against wearing seat belts to abide by laws against drinking and driving.They say Pfizer and Moderna have side effects. Of course they do, every modern medicine has some side effect. Even junk food has horrible side effects, but that hasn't stopped people from eating fries and burgers.And while anti-vaxxers are worried about their health, they have not taken the time to consider the health of millions of others they directly or indirectly interact with.I had spent most of my life in the US in liberal and progressive cities, so when I was met with the comparatively conservative crowd, I felt it was pointless to argue the subject because they had made up their minds and were not open to other opinions.Nothing has brought out the gap between haves and have nots than the Covid-19 pandemic. The global gap between the jabbed and jabbed nots is growing, increasing the chances of mutant strains evolving.In Nepal, we are not privileged enough to choose whether or not we will get a vaccine for a disease that has killed millions. We cannot even choose which vaccine we want: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/despite-doubts-nepal-sticks-with-astrazeneca-jabs/">AZ-Covishield</a>, VeroCell, J&amp;J. We take whatever is available.For most Nepalis, if there is a disease and there is a way to protect yourself from it, you just do it. There are no what-ifs.The fact that you even have the option to decide if you want to get inoculated against the virus in a country which has the highest national total of fatalities from Covid-19 shows how privileged people are in the US.When you are a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/">daily wage worker</a>responsible for feeding and clothing your family, and when your government doesn’t give you a weekly unemployment allowance for staying at home unable to go to work, you want to return to your job as soon as possible. The only way to do that at the moment is to vaccinate and make it safe for everyone to be out again.I would respect the choice of the anti-vaxers not to get vaccinated if they stayed home and did not interact with the public. But they are out and about (and without masks) claiming that it is their right to do so.Being a citizen means having a sense of responsibility towards oneself and others and not using selfish excuses in the name of freedom to do whatever you want.It is a sensitive topic, and those who are most vocal and against the vaccine seem to be also the least informed about masks, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/">the climate emergency</a>, guns, abortion and politics. They live in social media echo-chambers where algorithms expose them to ever more radical posts.Recently, I asked a friend in the US if he had been vaccinated. Later, I was told that it is impolite to ask such questions. But if someone is out in public, mingling and exhaling, they need to be responsible about the health of those around them.The boundary of an individual’s freedom is when it infringes on someone else’s freedom.The decision not to be vaccinated is a matter of life or death for those not fortunate enough to have access to doses. While Americans are refusing to take <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/to-boost-or-not-to-boost/">booster third shots</a>, 70% of Nepalis have not even got their first doses.The next time I see a person drinking a beer while smoking a cigarette trying to rationalise their choice to not vaccinate, you know how that conversation will go.I can already tell you that my Thanksgiving and Christmas in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave will be a lot of fun.Anjana Rajbhandary writes this fortnightly Nepali Times column Life Time about mental health, physical health and socio-cultural issues.

booster

Omnipresent Omicron starts to lose its edge

Diary of a Covid frontline worker in Nepal

To vax or not to vax