When the chariot of Machindranath, the rain god, got stuck at Na Tole in Patan this week, it became symbolic of Nepal’s shambolic politics.
But there was hope from Tanahu and Chitwan, where citizens disenchanted with the corrupt gerontocracy voted for change. RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane was re-elected by an even bigger margin than November despite scandals. Swarnim Wagle, who defected from the Nepali Congress (NC) to contest as RSP in Tanahu won in the Congress stronghold.
In Bara-2, JSP Chair Upendra Yadav was the only coalition candidate to win, after having lost from Saptari last November.
While the RSP and the JSP were able to retain seats they won in federal polls, the NC lost one seat to the RSP, which is the fourth-largest party in Parliament.
And while a single House seat may not matter in the grand scheme of politics, the by-elections were a barometer of the public mood, and could alter the dynamics in the coalition led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/in-with-the-new-out-with-the-old">In with the new, out with the old</a>, Shristi Karki
“Two out of three coalition candidates lost seats despite the prime minister himself campaigning on their behalf. This sends a clear message that this coalition does not have the mandate to rule,” states political analyst and former Nepali ambassador to India, Nilamber Acharya. “These results will likely affect the arithmetics of the House and government.”
Lamichhane has said it was “no longer reasonable” for the RSP to support the government, which means it could quit the 10-party coalition. “It is now pointless for us to remain in the alliance and the consensus within the party is that we should stay in the opposition,” RSP spokesperson Mukul Dhakal told Nepali Times.
We will know soon enough if the RSP really means it or if this is just a bargaining ploy by Lamichhane who was angling to be Home Minister again to clear his citizenship case. 
One RSP leader admitted to us that the party would only participate in the government if given “respectable portfolios” like the Home Ministry and the Deputy Prime Minister once again. Spoken truly like one of the big parties that the RSP has vowed to be different from.
Lamichhane is said also to be having backroom meetings with K P Oli of the UML, and political analyst Indra Adhikari thinks it is possible for the two to form a partnership in the opposition. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/whose-country-is-it-anyway">Whose country is it anyway?</a>, Editorial
She added: “Still, Rabi Lamichhane may ultimately decide to stay in government or hover nearby because of controversies, including the legal case about his dual passport.”
If the RSP withdraws support for the coalition, Prime Minister Dahal would need a simple majority of 138 to remain in charge of the government, failing which he will have to take another floor test.
On 20 March, Dahal received 172 votes of confidence. Since then, CK Raut’s Janamat which has 6 MPs has exited his government after disagreement over Cabinet slots. A RSP withdrawal would subtract another 21, leaving Dahal with 145. 
Given the volatile dynamics between Dahal and coalition partners like the JSP, the Nagarik Unmukti and the LSP, the prime minister could have the rug pulled from under him. He will therefore have to dangle Cabinet positions to keep his coalition intact. 
The Maoists may have thought they were kingmakers, but now it is the RSP that has the role.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/national-miasma">National miasma</a>, Shristi Karki

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The Reign God

Perhaps no by-election in Nepal’s recent history has been as critical as the one on 23 April in Tanahu, Chitwan and Bara that will be make-or-break for the RSP, the independent party that is fourth largest in Parliament. &nbsp; The RSP is fielding charismatic technocrats in all three constituencies at a time when disillusionment with the established parties is rife.&nbsp; The polls are a three-way contest between the RSP, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML, with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Maoist-Centre backing the NC candidates and nowhere in the radar. In Tanahu-1, Harvard-trained former World Bank economist Swarnim Wagle <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/buy-election">defected from the NC</a> to challenge Govinda Bhattarai in a contest to replace <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-chapter-in-nepal-political-saga">Ram Chandra Paudel</a>, who was medevaced to New Delhi on Wednesday just a month after being elected president. The UML has fielded former IGP Sarbendra Khanal, but many traditional UML and NC voters appear to favour Wagle.&nbsp; In a speech in Tanahu on Wednesday, Prime Minister Dahal said: “I have fallen deeply in love with Deubaji, and will work with him to fulfil the aspirations of the people.” The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba was also at the hustings, saying he would induct Govinda Bhattarai in the Cabinet if he won.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230420110412_9f0a7b66285da667eb4489cc26fbfb22ccc3514e98da767efd10f9279bc81a57.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230420110412_9f0a7b66285da667eb4489cc26fbfb22ccc3514e98da767efd10f9279bc81a57" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2123" loading="lazy" alt="dahal deuba tanahu"> <figcaption>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of Maoist-Centre, Sher Bahadur Deuba of NC, Madhav Kumar Nepal of Unified Socialist and Baburam Bhattarai of Nepal Samajwadi Party on a by-election campaign trail in Tanahu. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA/PMOPRADEEP RAJ ONTA/PMO</figcaption> </figure>  The stakes are high and campaigning has degenerated into personal attacks, including by NC leader Gagan Thapa against his erstwhile ally Wagle. For his part, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">Wagle </a>has promised good governance and an economic turnaround if elected. However, if Wagle splits the NC vote, it can benefit the UML.&nbsp; In Chitwan-2, RSP chair<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane"> Rabi Lamichhane</a> will contest his own vacated House seat against the NC’s Jeet Narayan Shrestha and UML’s Ram Prasad Neupane. Chitwan has always been a NC stronghold, but voters there are disenchanted with the party for joining hands with the Maoists.&nbsp; For the RSP, the by-elections are a test of whether voters have stood by Lamichhane despite his citizenship scandal and allegations of corruption during his recent brief stint as home minister. Most RSP loyalists dismiss this as a smear campaign by the established parties and big media. Judging from the crowds at rallies, support for the RSP does not seem to have diminished. However, political analyst Indra Adhikari cautions against looking at the RSP through rose-tinted glasses.&nbsp; “The party has used exactly the same tactics as the established political parties,” she said. “The RSP’s support base is made of politically-informed, issue-based voters and they are aware of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/rabi-lamichhane-is-home-less">Lamichhane’s past</a>.” Meanwhile, in Bara-2, the competition will be mainly between JSP Chair Upendra Yadav and Shivachandra Prasad Kushwaha from CK Raut’s Janamat. Both aspire to fill vice-president Ram Sahay Yadav’s seat which he won in 2017. &nbsp; Upendra Yadav lost in Saptari-2 to Raut by a significant margin in November, and is said to have pushed to make Ram Sahay Yadav vice-president in an attempt to get back into the House. He is also said to be eyeing a deputy prime minister nomination if he gets to parliament, which is among the reasons Prime Minister Dahal has not finished <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/quid-pro-quo-quagmire">expanding his Cabinet</a> yet. The RSP has fielded former DIG Ramesh Kharel in Bara, and this will be a test of how well a non-Madhesi candidate will be accepted in the Tarai. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/whose-country-is-it-anyway">Whose country is it anyway?</a> ------------------------------------------- <h2>Miasma (noun)</h2> mi·​as·​ma &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;/mi'æz.mә/ &nbsp; 1: A vaporous exhalation formerly believed to cause disease. 2: An influence or atmosphere that depletes or corrupts.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023042011044_758e3b87c44645cacdf370b761a693bc0f36e5f1cd17e7259af0706cc0fcfc2d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2023042011044_758e3b87c44645cacdf370b761a693bc0f36e5f1cd17e7259af0706cc0fcfc2d" data-rendition-name="original" width="3560" height="2160" loading="lazy" alt="Swayambhu pollution"> <figcaption>Swayambhunath through the thick smoke on Wednesday afternoon. Photo: SUMAN NEPALISuman Nepali</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal marked the first week of the new decade of the 2080s with a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/central-nepal-engulfed-in-smoke">thick pall of smoke and dust</a> that blanketed the Tarai and mountain valleys. Kathmandu recorded an Air Quality Index for particles below 2.5 microns of 450, when the WHO has set 20-35 µg/m3 as the threshold for air safe to breathe.&nbsp; Widespread wildfires, a record-breaking heat wave in the plains, windblown sand from the Indian desert, Kathmandu’s vehicular emissions and transboundary industrial pollution are all to blame. But the biggest culprit is an unresponsive government which is too busy with business-as-usual politics to address this nationwide challenge to public health. Air pollution is a political disaster.&nbsp; Candidates this week have been breathing heavily-polluted air on the campaign trail, but none of them has promised to clean up if elected. The RSP does have in its ranks <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/arnico-panday-the-political-scientist">Arnico Panday</a> who is an atmospheric scientist and has the ear of the political leadership. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/when-the-air-is-clear-in-kathmandu">When the air is clear in Kathmandu</a>

Shristi Karki

National miasma

Economist Swarnim Wagle’s resignation from the Nepali Congress (NC), accusing its conjugal leadership of “bullying” has been the talk of Twitter for the past week. Now, it is disagreement with the non-Deuba faction of the NC that is holding up Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s attempts to complete his Cabinet.&nbsp;
Even after the 31 March appointment of new ministers, Dahal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/quid-pro-quo-quagmire"> still holds</a> six portfolios: Foreign, Law and Federal Affairs, Health and Population, Youth and Sports, Forest and Environment and Water Supply. The NC faction led by Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala is understood to be demanding at least three of the vacant ministries.&nbsp;
It was PM Dahal is under pressure to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/post-presidential-politics">balance demands</a> from his 10 coalition partners, but it is now Deuba who has to deal with the insistence of dissident factions within his own party. As a result, NC leaders like Gagan Thapa are getting impatient with the Deuba-Dahal leadership of the coalition.
“We are walking when we need to be running to ensure good governance and delivery,” Thapa said on Wednesday. “This will not do.”
Deuba and Dahal do not just have to deal with the NC but also the need to placate the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls">independent RSP</a>, which is fielding three prominent candidates in by-elections on 23 April – Wagle in Tanahu-1, Chair Rabi Lamichhane in Chitwan-2 and former police chief Ramesh Kharel in Bara-2.
Coalitions insiders told Nepali Times the prime minister is in no hurry to fill Cabinet positions just yet and may want to wait till the by-election results are in. That would essentially mean waiting to see how well the RSP does.
Swarnim Wagle created a political tidal wave when it emerged that he was resigning from the NC because of his differences with Sher Bahadur Deuba and his powerful wife, Arzoo Rana Deuba.
In a WhatsApp resignation message sent to NC General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma as well as dissident leaders Shekhar Koirala and Govinda Pokharel Wagle apparently said: ‘I am stepping down because of constant insults and bullying from the Deuba-Arzoo gang…I would now like to deliver to the public while my age, knowledge, and energy are still relevant, rather than simply wait and watch.’
Soon after, the NC decided to field Govinda Bhattarai against Wagle in Tanahu-1, the constituency vacated by Ram Chandra Paudel after he became president.
Wagle was heavily involved in drafting the NC’s 2022 election manifesto, and had previously also been denied a ticket in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/many-nepalis-say-no-not-again">November’s federal polls</a>.&nbsp;
‘The party’s activities and state over the last few years would cause any self-respecting member of the Nepali Congress to hang their head in shame,’ wrote Wagle <a href="https://www.facebook.com/swarnim.wagle/posts/pfbid0EcAxHaNVPVL8GP4LghAbD6AnV2tMnWp99TtAu4HMb186AqgseoANzpFELrzWs7Hxl">on social media announcing his departure</a>. ‘The historic party of BP Koirala, Ganesh Man Singh, Subarna Shamsher, and Kishunji (Krishna Prasad Bhattarai) has turned into a dysfunctional nepotistic gang.’
The RSP immediately offered Wagle the Tanahu ticket, even while Rabi Lamichhane is still tangled in a legal case involving his citizenship. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court asked Lamichhane to furnish proof that he had renounced his US citizenship even though Attorney General Dinmani Pokhrel earlier decided not to file a case against him.
The Chitwan-2 seat became vacant after Lamichhane had to resign from his MP seat after an earlier <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rabi-lamichhane-is-home-less">Supreme Court ruling on his citizenship</a>, and also had to give up his home ministership. It does not look to be smooth sailing for the RSP chair this time amid persisting questions about his US passport.&nbsp;
By-elections on 23 April will also be held in the Bara-2 constituency vacated by vice-president Ram Sahaya Prasad Yadav, and here the arithmetic is even more complex. Yadav was with the JSP and lost in Saptari to Janamat Party founder CK Raut in November. This time, Raut is fielding Shiva Chandra Kushwaha after getting him to defect from the Maoists. Essentially, the Bara polls will be a &nbsp;contest between Raut and the JSP’s Upendra Yadav.&nbsp;
There are a total of 69 by-election candidates in the three constituencies, 33 of which are from political parties. 36 people have filed to run as independents.&nbsp;
Nepal’s Election Commission published the final list of by-election candidates and their election symbols on Thursday.&nbsp;
Interestingly. there are no by-election candidates from the Maoist Centre, which heads the coalition government. So 23 April will be a kind of referendum on which among the RSP, NC, UML or JSP has more public support. &nbsp;

Ringing in the new

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan