<figure><img width="1200" height="800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d49c7e80680e06f112jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>From left to right: Finnish Ambassador Pertti Anttinen, EU Ambassador Nona Deprez, the new Health Minister Sher Bahadur Tamang, Nepal’s third in one year, with German Ambassador Roland Shäfer at Kathmandu Airport on Tuesday to receive another consignment of medical assistance from Europe. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>When Nepal’s new Health Minister Sher Bahadur Tamang went to Kathmandu Airport on Tuesday morning to receive another international consignment of medical assistance, he was the third Health Minister since the pandemic began.Tamang was brought into the Cabinet by Prime Minister K P Oli last week in a reshuffle in which he inducted 12 ministers from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), removed prominent ministers from his own UML, and kept seven portfolios for himself for now.Tamang had earlier sided with the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of the Nepal Communist Party, but defected to the Oli side after the Supreme Court disbanded the party earlier this year. <figure><img width="960" height="641" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d69c7e80680e06f113jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Health Minister Sher Bahadur Tamang greets EU Ambassador Nona Deprez at Kathmandu Airport on Tuesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>He succeeded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252329000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGyPl6Sr4mQ4kPdI5ExVOvZoMnGZg">Hiradyesh Tripathi</a>, who was former minister of federal affairs and general administration. Because he graduated in political science from Russia, he had been entrusted by the Oli administration to buy 5 million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine. Tripathi had negotiated with the Serum Institute India for the purchase of 2 million doses of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFR9dOY2OIo7t4ier63kVQ3SiP3DQ">Covishield AstraZeneca</a> vaccine and even sent advance payment. But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-gift-of-the-jab/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-gift-of-the-jab/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHgSXRiKrbzrrx_SdQTwRktENrKmw">only 1 million doses were delivered</a>, before India banned the export of vaccines. Tripathi later blamed the Serum Institute of India’s representatives in Nepal of trying to take a bigger cut from the next order of 5 million doses for the failure to produce vaccines in time. This allegation was later refuted by the representatives, Hukam Distribution &amp; Logistics, which said it was due to India's ban, and that it was just following the law that allowed 10% commission.As the second wave surged through Nepal in April, Tripathi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/our-health-system-cant-contain-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/our-health-system-cant-contain-the-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5fNsRaZtmGASdtIMPLB9kn9kURw">said in an interview with Nepali Times</a> that the pandemic had overwhelmed Nepal’s health system and it could not contain the pandemic. He said it was now up to the public to take proper precautions.Before Tripathi, the health minister was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/swiss-pcrs-for-nepal-covid-19-testing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/swiss-pcrs-for-nepal-covid-19-testing/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8X1gfPXURrL-FOhHlLcEV8Y6Juw">Bhanubhakta </a>Dhakal, who was in charge when the first scandals broke in the procurement of Covid-19 test kits through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relying-on-unreliable-covid-19-kits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relying-on-unreliable-covid-19-kits/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGTtkj-VCFBkfqZ9QwtugfGT26oWA">Omni International</a>, a local company. The kits were found to be faulty and overpriced. Dhakal was made Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister during a reshuffle last year.  <figure><img width="1405" height="1050" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d99c7e80680e06f114jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Swiss Ambassador Elisabeth von Cappeler handing over 30,000 PCR kits to Health Minister Bhanubhakta Dhakal at Kathmandu airport last year on 8 May. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1467" height="973" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91dc9c7e80680e06f115jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Swiss Ambassador Elisabeth von Capeller (centre) handing over Swiss medical assistance to Health Minister Hridayesh Tripathi on 22 May this year at Kathmandu airport. Also pictured, Head of Cooperation for SDC Silvana Hogg. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>The new health minister Sher Bahadur Tamang as MP has been lobbying for the legalisation of the cultivation and controlled sale of cannabis to lift rural livelihoods. He was at the airport on Tuesday to receive the new consignment of assistance from Germany under the European Union’s Civil Protection Mechanism. The material arrived on a Turkish Airline cargo charter that brought 62 ventilators, 27,500 FFP2 masks, 30,000 surgical masks, 100 gumboots, 200 body bags, 5 isolation centre tents, and 25,000 litres of disinfectant.  Also on hand at the airport to receive the aid package were German Ambassador Roland Shäfer, EU Ambassador Nona Deprez and Finnish Ambassador Pertti Anttinen. <figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91df9c7e80680e06f116jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A Turkish Airlines cargo plane brought another consignment of medical equipment from Germany under the European Union’s Civil Protection Mechanism to Kathmandu on Tuesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Although the official daily total for confirmed Covid-19 cases has been going down, public health experts say it is an underestimation. The number of hospital cases, ICU patients and those on ventilators are all going down in Nepal’s cities. However, the virus is said to be ravaging the remotest villages in Nepal where access to health care is rudimentary.They say what <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-goes-viral/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-goes-viral/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623223252330000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGWNZGKW3qrT2rSKlxzDVTy0WWTVg">Nepal really needs now is vaccines</a>. Some 1.4 million doses are needed immediately for elderly people waiting for their second dose of Covishield, and then for the 18 million adults in the coming months as the lockdown is eased.Nepal registered 3,370 new cases on Monday and 6,950 recovering, which has brought the number of active cases to below 90,000 for the first time in 6 weeks. The number of Covid-19 deaths in the past 24 hours was 92, with a total of nearly 8,000 since the beginning off the pandemic.

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3 health ministers in 1 year

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cc9c7e80680e06f10fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="428"/>One thing we cannot complain about is that, for once, the world is not ignoring a humanitarian disaster in Nepal. They have even named a variant after us.Worried about the Delta strain spreading in his country, a UK official blamed the ‘Nepal variant’ for spoiling summer holiday plans for many Brits. The tabloid press, but even the BBC, dutifully headlined this, despite a WHO denial about a Nepali strain. But the damage was done. Just google ‘Nepal variant’ now.What the publicity has done is pushed the world to rush oxygen and medical supplies to Nepal. All help is useful in a crisis like this, but much of the aid being flown in contains items that Nepal is already buying in bulk in China.While there was a dire shortage of oxygen cylinders three weeks ago that led to loss of lives, the nature of the emergency has changed. Nepal’s 29 oxygen factories are now working at 100% capacity producing only medical oxygen, and soon there will be a surplus. The problem is not supply, but logistics and equitable distribution.What we really need are vaccines — most urgently for the 1.4 million Nepalis above 65 who got their first dose of Covishield AstraZeneca three months ago, and are now past the default date for their second after India banned its export.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cf9c7e80680e06f110jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="318"><figcaption>India's total vaccine exports before it was stopped in March.</figcaption></figure>The lockdown should have bought us time for a mass vaccination drive, but once more we squandered two months shutting people in their homes. The restrictions did bring down the daily caseload, but infections are likely to spike again once mobility increases, just like last year.Instead of #NepalVariant trending on Twitter, we need #NepalVaccines to go viral. To be sure, the United States has pledged 80 million surplus doses, but only 7 million of that in the first phase is for the whole of South and Southeast Asia with a population of 1.5 billion. Supply bottlenecks mean the first shipments will not include AstraZeneca.Europe has a stockpile of AstraZeneca and more on order that are not going to be used, either because of slow uptake or because of fears of clots. In France, tens of thousands of doses have gone to waste. Norway and Denmark are not using  AstraZeneca anymore, and some of this may be channeled to Europe’s pledge to donate 100 million doses this year, sell 1.3 billion doses at cost price to low and middle-income countries, and donate another 1.3 billion doses in 2022, mostly through COVAX.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week announced a $50 billion plan to vaccinate 40% of the world population within 2021, and 60% by mid-2022. This is all encouraging news if it happens, but the long and short of it is that for Nepalis, neither the second doses nor vaccines for the larger population are getting here any time soon.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d19c7e80680e06f111jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="282"><figcaption>Number of patients in ICU and ventilators in Nepal in May.</figcaption></figure>Even Andrew Pollard of Oxford University, an old Nepal hand, and one of the developers of the AstraZeneca vaccine says he feels helpless. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqHFh4Fbf8IcsJ4g-XnTG5qP1SzA">He wrote in a column</a> in this paper recently: ‘I felt so proud when I saw the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-2fepjLEOU19PSLjzWqAvKa05A">first doses of the Oxford vaccine being administered in Kathmandu</a>, and the hope that it brought to Nepalis, but I am now saddened to hear that further supply is delayed.’On Tuesday, the 60-65 age group in Kathmandu Valley, and 62-65 outside started being vaccinated with the 1 million extra doses of Sinopharm VeroCell donated by China. However, we need to get jabs to at least 19 million Nepali arms in the next few months to reduce the danger of a pre-Dasain surge, not to mention younger cohorts who are likely to be more vulnerable to a predicted third wave. Negotiations with Sinopharm to procure another 2 million doses are bogged down over a confidentiality clause in the contract.The only ‘Nepali variants’ we should be worried about are the country’s feckless and mutated politicians. Prime Minister Oli has replaced five Health Ministers since 2018, three of them since the pandemic began.Since vaccines are unlikely soon, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBpfK-x_4CespExs5Gd3dW9_6oMA">public health experts have warned</a> us repeatedly that even after the lockdown is eased, and even if some people are vaccinated, the only way to prevent future surges is through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrVgv5oLBXzAWQyNuTw7uc_DdWQA">proper masks and physical distancing</a>.A recent <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHgAojjRlhejojvnimKSVT8uOMRbA">Yale study in Bangladesh</a> involving over 300,000 people showed that four simple actions led to a 10-time increase in mask wearing. Their <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGV_AM4_ATLpwI_uAwFRandfzstdA">four-fold path</a> includes: 1. Giving away free masks, 2. Spread information about how to wear them properly, 3. Get celebrities to promote mask-wearing, 4. Enforce mask-wearing through persuasion and punishment.Official figures <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH48dysJncU5jxSSYZYwIF57tBcRw">grossly underestimate</a> the spread and fatality from Covid-19 in Nepal. A projection by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view=daily-deaths&amp;tab=trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view%3Ddaily-deaths%26tab%3Dtrend&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH24lI1y0n0i0mWO_OHRW4ckwQBxA">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)</a> of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle shows that on 31 May when the government reported 96 deaths from Covid-19, the actual number was closer to 363.IHME calculations also show that 1,000 fewer Nepalis will die by 1 September if 95% of people wore masks while outdoors. The government is hinting that the lockdown rules will be eased on 14 June. Since vaccines are still a long way off, our only protection is masks and minimising movement.

Nepal goes viral

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a96cc9c7e80680e05dc8ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MINISTRY OF LABOUR EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY</figcaption></figure>Politics is dirty. The manpower business is dirtier. Mixing the two can mean the difference of life or death for hundreds of thousands of desperate Nepalis seeking work overseas.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/win-win-migration/">Labour Minister Gokarna Bista</a> was sacked last week in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/honest-heads-roll-in-nepal-reshuffle/">cabinet reshuffle</a> by Prime Minister K P Oli under pressure from the recruitment mafia – the cartel of unscrupulous middlemen who profit from the blood, sweat and tears of fellow Nepalis. The recruiters had been baying for his head ever since Bista started dismantling the corrupt system that profited from exploiting and abusing workers.Immediately after the minister’s removal, the Nepal Association of Foreign Employment Agencies (NAFEA) published a press release warning the Nepal government’s Department of Foreign Employment to take decisions only after consultation with them. Is that a threat? You bet it is. And it shows just how powerful the mafia is that it can go about intimidating the state.What is more, NAFEA’s blatant warning was a not-so-subtle ‘you are next’ reminder to Bista’s successor, Rameswar Rai Yadav, not to deign obstruct their rent-seeking activities by pushing through Bista’s reforms.Prime Minsiter Oli ostensibly carried out his long-awaited reshuffle to address <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/four-year-itch/">public disillusionment with his administration’s failure of governance</a>. Given that  honest heads rolled, politicians with questionable reputation were inducted, and corrupt non-performers were retained, the intention was to consolidate Oli’s position ahead of his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prime-ministers-health-condition-under-wraps/">prolonged absence for health reasons</a>. It had nothing to do with rewarding integrity and effectiveness.Bista represented a much-needed voice in the foreign employment industry, but his strong stance against unscrupulous recruiters cost him his job. Within weeks of assuming power, he stopped workers from going to Malaysia in order to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kleptocrats-of-kathmandu-and-kualalampur/">break the syndicate</a> that was overcharging workers. His ministry amended the Foreign Employment Act, reducing the number of manpower companies from over 1,200 to 850 by increasing their security deposit and facilitating mergers. This was to ensure that only professional and honest organisations remained in the industry, and to stop recruitment companies from cutting competition by engaging in visa trading.Bista was aggressively pursuing <a href="a">bilateral agreements with countries including Malaysia</a>, Japan, UAE and Mauritius, which included provisions on equal pay for equal work and zero cost for migrant workers. To minimise fraudulent job offers his ministry required that all demand letters for workers be verified at Nepali diplomatic missions abroad. The agreement with Japan barred recruitment agencies, given the record of aspirant workers paying more than Rs1 million each for opportunities in Japan. These pro-worker reforms cut the illegitimate profits of recruitment agencies who had it easy in the past and consequently, vociferously contested his position.Bista was starting to get crossborder recognition for his initiatives. Following the signing of the Nepal-Malaysia MoU, a writ submitted at the Supreme Court in Dhaka against a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/">recruitment syndicate in Bangladesh</a> that sent workers to Malaysia referred to Bista's initiative as a model. He took a lead in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-pain/">Colombo Process</a> to bring labour-sending countries together.Yet, his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/">sacking was expected</a>. A recent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reducing-labour-pain/">editorial in this paper</a> warned about how many wanted the Malaysia agreement to fail. In the last 20 months, the wave of rumours about Bista’s possible ousting had demoralised his ministry. Bista’s comrades in the party were protecting the mafia, and were also jealous of his popularity as a can-do labour minister, and in his previous job as water resource minister.Reshuffling politicians comes with consequences that are not immediately apparent. The bureaucrats Bista inspired are despondent. The message this episode conveys is discouraging for any Nepali who wants to innovate, break the status quo, and who does not want to be complacent. It is too early to judge the new labour minister's capacity or integrity. But Bista’s unceremonious ouster sends the message to others in government is to lie low and play it safe.  Bista’s zero-cost migration initiative would have been difficult to enforce not just for Nepal but for all labour-sending countries faced with this shared challenge. With his departure, the Oli administration has sent a clear message that predatory recruiters are free to swindle poor Nepali workers as much as they want, exploiting their desperation for jobs.Lasts Thursday on 21 November, Bista walked out of Singha Darbar after his farewell event and took a taxi home. He looked undefeated, perhaps validated by the outpouring of support in the social media. His last words to his despondent team and gathered media: “The post of a minister is temporary. Life itself is temporary. I am coming out of this with more inspiration and vigour to serve the country.” <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago this week the Nepali Times edition  <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/478">#478 (27 Nov 2009 - 03 Dec 2009)</a> talked about how the prime minister was in Singapore for health treatment and the country was in disarray. Sound familiar? Excerpt from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16526#.XdtzyoMza70">editorial:</a>It is the curse of Nepali politics that a party boasts about its democratic credentials by <a href="http://www.nepalitimes.com/2009/11/27/315">'allowing' parliament to function for three days</a>’. The most inclusive house ever elected in Nepali history was blocked for five months, there is a logjam of legislation waiting for ratification, the budget delay deadlocked development, and important national issues were not debated.Meanwhile, despite the drama of the NC and Maoist leaders <a href="http://www.nepalitimes.com/2009/11/27/313">meeting around a hospital bed</a> in Singapore, there is no end in sight to the political deadlock. At this stage, it is difficult to say what NC Chairman Girija Prasad Koirala seeks to achieve by forming a 'high-level political mechanism' when grassroots politics bristles with antipathy and apathy towards the governing coalition.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/478"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a96cf9c7e80680e05dc8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="789"></a>

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BLOOD, SWEAT AND TEARS

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;