Nepal’s National Statistics Office on Wednesday admitted that the census conducted two years ago missed 771,998 people, but demographers say the error could be much higher because it did not include all <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-hard-working-students-overseas">students</a>, workers and those in the diaspora.
The NSO’s Post Enumeration Survey reported that 2.58% of the population was omitted during the census due to errors in data collection. The survey estimated that 2.95% of the urban population was not counted, with the omission rate in Kathmandu Valley even higher at 4.42%. More than 4% of the above 80 age group were also left out.
The survey results were released even as experts expressed concerns over data discrepancy, despite the 2021 national headcount being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/everybody-counts-in-nepal">touted as the most accurate</a> by the NSO.
The inaccuracy appears to be mainly due to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepalis-moving-from-mountains-to-plains">Nepal’s highly mobile population and migration</a>. The census put the country’s absentee population at 2.1 million, but this is a gross underestimate as it did not include Nepalis in India and students in Australia, Japan or Canada. On the other hand, the study showed that 0.15% of the population was double counted.&nbsp;
The NSO’s Deputy Director General Hemraj Regmi explained that the 2.58% error rate had actually decreased since the 2011 census and was at par with international standards that accept a margin of error of up to 5%.&nbsp;
The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-demographic-dividend">2021 census report published in March</a> put Nepal’s population at 29,164,578, with an annual growth rate of 0.92%. But adding the missing head count would bring the total population to 29,936,576.
<div class="embed-block"> <iframe title="Population by age group" aria-label="Split Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-3L11U" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3L11U/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="600" height="595" data-external="1"></iframe></div>
The Post Enumeration Survey of the National Population and Household Census 2021 was carried out last year by the Labour Studies Programme at Tribhuvan University to double check the tally.
Even without the discrepancy, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/counting-on-nepal">the 2021 census results</a> showed a slowdown in the annual population growth rate and total fertility rate. Nepal’s population pyramid now shows fewer children, a wider youth bulge, and greater numbers of elderly. The new data increases the total number of ethnic communities to 142, the total mother tongues spoken to 124, and major religions constant at 10.
Regmi told Nepali Times his office will continue to use data from the officially published census report, explaining: “There are no systems in place and no practice of adjusting population to show an increase or decrease in census data. However, the missing population will be considered and encompassed into all future national planning projects.”
Prior to releasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/decoding-diversity">detailed report on ethnicities, languages, and religions</a>, the National Statistics Office admitted it had difficulty in classifying caste, religion and language accurately because many respondents claimed to belong to a previously unknown caste and religion.&nbsp;
Since the release of Nepal’s 2021 census data on ethnicities, languages, and religions, Hindu nationalists, royalists and anti-secularists have been raising a fuss because the number of people who say Nepali is their mother tongue and that they are Hindus has marginally declined from past censuses.
It is clear from the census data that Nepal's social demographic data reflects its diversity, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/census-or-consensus">but not its socio-political makeup</a>.

Shristi Karki

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Nepal census undercounted 800k

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208129c7e80680e0b54c9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2038" height="1356"/>On 27 January, Nepal’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) published the preliminary report of the 2021 census, ten years after the last one.Nepal’s 12th ever census, postponed from its May-June 2021 date due to the Covid-19 second wave last year, was conducted by some 40,000 enumerators and supervisors from 11-25 November.The new report puts Nepal’s population at 29,192,480, showing that the country’s average annual population growth rate dropped to 0.93%, its lowest recorded. The growth rate was 1.34% in 2011, and had continued to rise since Nepal’s fourth annual census in 1942.The high, medium, and low variation population projection put out by the CBS in 2014 had estimated that Nepal’s population would cross 30 million in 2021.Demographic experts say the reason for the decline in population growth is due to many factors, including Nepal’s changing socio-economic status, public health, educational and employment landscapes."Nepal's changing socio-economic circumstances along with young Nepalis opting for foreign employment have contributed to the reduction of the fertility rate, which has affected the population growth rate," says Tribhuvan University professor Yogendra B Gurung. Nepal’s total fertility rate is now approaching replacement level — 2.3 children per mother.Gurung points to other factors pushing Nepali couples to have fewer children over the years: increasing literacy rate especially among young women, living costs, as well as the participation of both parents in the workforce.Even though foreign employment and its impact on reducing poverty is cited as the main contributors to decreasing population growth, the census report only shows 2,169,478 Nepalis living abroad, which analysts and officials have said is a gross undercount.The 2011 census put the number of overseas Nepalis at 1.9 million. However, Nepal’s Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE) has issued more than 3.6 million labour permits since 2011. This does not include data on India, where at least 3 million Nepalis are estimated to work or have settled. Government data also does not include Nepalis who travel overseas using back channels, or the number of Nepali students who have gone abroad.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/everybody-counts-in-nepal/">Everybody counts in Nepal</a>, Shristi KarkiRabindra Mishra of the Bibeksheel Sajha Party weighed in on the significant difference between the census result and the recorded number of Nepalis leaving the country.‘The government has figures on those leaving the country for foreign employment, but it has no records of those who return,” Mishra wrote on Facebook. ‘Similarly, entire Nepali families that live or have obtained citizenship overseas — largely in Europe, Australia and the USA — have also not been included in the census.’The undercount has political implications, and Mishra’s party which has got on an anti-secular, anti-federal and pro-monarchy platform, has been batting for overseas Nepalis being allowed to vote in elections back home.Central Bureau of Statistics head Nebin Lal Shrestha, who himself expressed surprise at the low figure, has agreed about the possibility of there being an undercount because households where all members were abroad were not counted.“The census data on migration does differ from data released by other institutions during the pandemic,” says Govind Subedi, head of the Central Department of Population Studies at Tribhuvan University.  “The absentee population should have been higher than what was reported.”Along with international migration, the census report also shows significant internal transmigration from Nepal’s mountains to the plains. Nearly 54% of the country’s population now lives in the Tarai, up from about 50% in 2011 – even though the Tarai makes up only 23% of Nepal’s land area. In fact, 21% of the Nepali population lives in the Madhes Province.Population density of the Tarai is also steadily rising, reaching 461 people/sq km, compared to only 34 people/sq km in the mountains. In fact, 21% of the Nepali population lives in the eight districts of Madhes Province – where the density is the highest at 636 people/sq km. The total fertility rate in Madhes Province is also much higher than the national average, at 5.15 children per mother.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19817#.YfpR8VIzaRs">In a state of flux</a>, Anurag AcharyaThe proportion of people living in the mountains has fallen to 40%, and most districts there are seeing a depopulation. In fact, 32 out of Nepal’s 77 districts have seen a negative population growth – in the 2011 census only 27 districts had negative growth."The population increase in the Tarai is a reflection of a continuous migration of the Nepali village population to the cities in the plains,” explains Jeevan Baniya, at the Centre for the Study of Labour and Mobility at Social Science Baha.“The Tarai belt has experienced infrastructure development and connectivity due to the construction of highways,” continues Baniya, “as well as the growth of small cities into mega cities due to increased economic activity influenced by Nepal's remittance economy.”Nepal’s federal governance structure, and elections at the provincial and local levels in 2017 also spurred Nepalis to move to the Tarai from elsewhere in Nepal.The number of Nepalis residing in Kathmandu Metropolitan City has decreased from over one million in 2011 to 0.8 million in 2021, declining at an average rate of 1.32% every year.“With local level elections, Nepalis have recognised the importance of voting, and voting from home,” says Baniya. “When all local levels in the country have representation, there is no need for people to remain in Kathmandu.”Analysts point to the rising costs of land and real estate, increased living costs, along with the overseas settlement of entire families as having contributed to the decreasing population growth in Kathmandu Valley.The number of Nepalis moving overseas for non-labour activities, like those seeking permanent residence abroad, are also concentrated in cities within the Bagmati province, says Baniya.Additionally, demographers note that the Covid-19 pandemic might also be a factor in the movement of people out of densely-packed Kathmandu in the last two years for safety reasons.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalis-to-stand-up-and-be-counted-next-year/">Nepalis to stand up and be counted next year</a>, Chetan Adhikari“The pandemic likely caused internal migrants living in Kathmandu to return to their home districts, resulting in a population decrease in the metropolitan area,” says Subedi.Some demographic experts say that if there has been an undercount of Nepal’s overall population, and of the numbers living abroad, then all other inferences like average annual growth rate, Kathmandu Valley’s population, and even estimates of the country’s ‘youth bulge’ could be inaccurate.“As far as methodology is concerned, there is room for doubt as to whether enumerators were able to reach every household in the country,” admits   Subedi. “There were many instances of homeowners refusing to give accurate information about family members because of rumours that the information would be used for tax collection.”In Rasuwa, for instance, data shows that 466 more earthquake-affected families received government aid than the number of families recorded in the census. While the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) has signed grant agreements with 12,307 earthquake-affected families, the census recorded 11,841 families residing across the district north of Kathmandu.Says professor Subedi: “Unless another scientific procedure is conducted, there is little way of knowing about data discrepancies and methodological errors. The only reliable way to figure out exactly how much underestimation took place is for the CBS to conduct a post-enumeration survey, which is typically conducted after the census.”Read more: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">Reaping the demographic dividend</a>, editorial<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/democracy-demography-in-nepal,1700">Demography and democracy</a>, editorial

Nepalis moving from mountains to plains

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5759c7e80680e09670cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1750" height="1168"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal is being engulfed by a second Covid-19 wave, but that has not deterred the <a href="https://cbs.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://cbs.gov.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHjpdB6VBkaD12OSHCdtm5WKfbnAA">Central Bureau of Statistics</a> (CBS) as it puts finishing touches to an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/everybody-counts-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/everybody-counts-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHWsKnBlwWEq9HjHve2mVa1kbn0OQ">ambitious National Population and Household Census</a> scheduled for 8-22 June.CBS has devised three phases of training at the central, provincial and local levels, and has completed the central and provincial briefings. In the final phase, officials trained in previous sessions will instruct 8,000 census supervisors and 39,000 enumerators during week-long sessions in late April and late May respectively.The data collection will be more comprehensive and detailed, with the use of three separate questionnaires: House and Household Listing, the main questionnaire, and the Community Questionnaire. The main questionnaire with 55 questions will be the longest questionnaire out of any other country that conducts a census, while the Community Questionnaire will be the first of its kind used in a national census.The census will also make more prominent use of technology in the data collection process with enumerators deployed within Kathmandu Valley set to use electronic tablets to record information.Each national census since the first one has shown increased diversity in terms of ethnicity, religion and languages spoken. This year’s census is Nepal’s 12th and because of greater social awareness, inclusion and empowerment, the results are expected to reflect the country’s changing socio-political and demographic landscape more accurately, and add to the country’s linguistic, cultural, and ethnic richness.The first four census from 1911 to 1941 were primarily head-counts conducted to gather data about able-bodied Nepalis who could be sent to fight the British Empire’s wars overseas. However, the censuses since 1952 have documented the country’s changing social demography.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5789c7e80680e09670djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="626"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>‘The democratic wave in Nepal after 1990 played a major role not only in collecting better census data on ethnic/caste, linguistic and religious groups but these data have also become instrumental in understanding the interethnic and inter-religious relationships among various groups of people,’ writes Dilli Ram Dahal in the 2014 <a href="https://www.google.com.np/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjCnuuJioPwAhV_wzgGHVVVBkgQFjAAegQIBBAD&amp;url=https://nepal.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Population%2520Monograph%2520V02.pdf&amp;usg=AOvVaw31jW_JvStlSNQMJhlKSRuN" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com.np/url?sa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26cad%3Drja%26uact%3D8%26ved%3D2ahUKEwjCnuuJioPwAhV_wzgGHVVVBkgQFjAAegQIBBAD%26url%3Dhttps://nepal.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Population%252520Monograph%252520V02.pdf%26usg%3DAOvVaw31jW_JvStlSNQMJhlKSRuN&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGADSwyVNWu0nLEuMTaNEfkVJRLMQ">Population Monograph of Nepal</a>.Nepal’s topographical range and its location astride the Himalaya has given the country ethno-linguistic diversity unparalleled in the world. The first modern census of 1952-54 was also the first to collect data on languages spoken, and all following census has asked respondents their ‘mother tongue’ and their ‘second language’.The 1952 census put Nepal’s language count at only 44, and the number actually decreased in the three subsequent censuses, to 36 in 1961, then more dramatically to 17 in 1971. In fact, responses to census questionnaires on social demographic data show a direct correlation to Nepal’s political and socio-cultural evolution. For example, the number of languages began to increase from the 1991 census onwards.“Since the restoration of democracy in 1990, there has been a sharp rise in ethno-linguistic awareness among linguistic minorities, including indigenous peoples about their mother tongues,” writes Yogendra P Yadava in the Population Monograph.The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/09/27/nepals-population-26-6-million/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/09/27/nepals-population-26-6-million/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH25d0c3bd_PGzngduCr1m3tzb0-w">2011 census</a> puts the official number of languages at 123. Of them, 19 are non-Nepali languages, some of which include Arabi, Russian, Chinese, Spanish. However, the National Language Commission has identified eight more languages since its establishment in 2016, and this is expected to be reflected in this year’s count.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce57a9c7e80680e09670ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1119" height="822"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Yet, even as new languages are identified, some of Nepal’s indigenous languages are in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lost-in-translation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lost-in-translation/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGpgoEsPRha7u6Ds9SWg0FHV6X6ZQ">danger of becoming extinct</a>. The 2011 census identified 37 languages having less than 1,000 speakers as being endangered. Among them, the Dura, Kusunda, and Tillung languages have only one speaker each left, and may not even register in this year’s census.“The status of Nepal’s languages and linguistic diversity have reflected well in Nepali censuses only during periods of democracy, and not in times of tyranny and autocracy,” explains Lok Bahadur Lopchan of the Nepal Language Commission. Indeed, fluctuations in the language count correspond with major political upheavals in Nepal’s history.In a bid to better understand Nepal’s linguistic diversity and identify the status of languages spoken, the Commission and CBS have introduced a new question to the language section in the census forms. In addition to ‘mother tongue’ and ‘second language’, respondents this time will also be asked to mention their ‘ancestral’ language.“Because the language of teaching and communication is predominantly in Nepali, the mother tongue for many people across Nepal’s ethnic communities has become Nepali as well. Adding ancestral language to the questionnaire will help us ascertain which languages have lost speakers,” Lopchan explains.In fact, Dilli Ram Dahal notes in his analysis that “dominant groups, such as Newa, Magar and Rai are switching over in large numbers to the Nepali language, not only because it is an official language but also because of their day to day interaction with the Nepali language speaking communities.”“If the respondents answer openly, we might get more accurate data, and there is a possibility that the total number of endangered languages will be double of what it is now,” adds Lopchan.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce57d9c7e80680e09670fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="652"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Meanwhile, data collection in the census could also be affected by an increasing number of inter-ethnic, multi-lingual families as the country goes through a cultural shift."We are inherently a patriarchal society, so the data about ancestral language might be dominated by the male side of the family in case of inter-ethnic or inter-caste families, even if the first language the respondent has learned is that of the mother’s,” notes Lopchan. “In such cases, respondents might record their father’s language as the ancestral language and their mother's language as their mother tongue. Or, they might have learned to speak only in Nepali for convenience.”Unlike fluctuations in data related to language, the number of Nepalis practising various religions has continued to increase ever since Nepal began to keep faith records in the census of 1952/54. The 1952 census recognised only three major religions: Hindu, Buddhist, and Islam. Jainism and Christianity were added to the census in 1961, Kirat in 1991, Sikh and Baha’i in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8345#.X6oMhi8RoWo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D8345%23.X6oMhi8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHiGzP6IHzsdfSl1d-rW4IeZK7QuA">2001</a>, and Bon and Prakriti Dharma being the latest additions in 2011.However, even as the absolute number of Nepalis practising various religions increase, the percentage of Nepalis who identify as Hindu has declined over the years from 89% to 81% of the total population. Meanwhile, the percentage of Nepali Christians has continued to increase from zero in 1952 to 1.4% of the population in 2011.The gradual decline in the percentage of Nepal’s Hindu population has brought to the forefront conversations about religious freedom after the country became secular, but has also been a cause for concern about religious conversion and proselytisation by western and Korean Evangelical groups in recent years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5809c7e80680e096710jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="800"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Revealingly, the 2011 census showed that the number of Nepalis identifying as Christians was 85,000 in urban areas and almost 290,000 in rural areas.‘As most of Nepali people live in rural areas, it is natural that there are more people following a particular type of religion in rural areas. But it also gives a strong message that rural people could be motivated more easily to change their religion if external factors play a role in following their religious faiths or values,’ writes Dilli Ram Dahal in the Population Monograph.This also raises concerns about how individual respondents might hesitate to be forthcoming about their religious identity due to a pressure to say they belong to the same faith as their family members, or fear of ostracisation if they admit to following a different religion. But census officials do not believe these issues will affect the accuracy of data this year.“Religion is an individual choice, and as such, respondents are free to disclose their religion regardless of family or ethnic background,” says Tirtha Raj Chaulagain of the CBS. “Our enumerators are trained to ask questions individually to each member of the household, so we anticipate little error in data as far as religion is concerned.”CBS has identified 10 major religious groups from the previous census, in addition to having an ‘others’ section. Yet even as data and discourse around religious diversity have increased, there is a distinct lack of conversation surrounding individuals who might be atheist or agnostic. This can be attributed to the intricate links between religion, culture and tradition in Nepali society that informs the everyday lives of Nepalis. Additionally, the reluctance to be open about one’s religious identity might also extend to a disinclination towards disclosing the absence of any religious faith.“While we do not have a section for such individuals, we do have an ‘others' section, where respondents are free to specify that they do not identify with any religion,” says Chaulagain. “The fact is, if enough respondents had previously specified being atheist or agnostic, we would have coded and categorised it immediately."<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5839c7e80680e096711jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="636"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Even though an individual or community’s ethnic identity is intricately tied to a sense of linguistic and religious belonging, caste and ethnicity were only included for the first time in the 1991 census, 40 years after Nepal began to keep records of language and religion. Sixty caste or ethnic groups were identified in the 1991 census, 100 in 2001 and 125 in 2011.“The rise in the consciousness of identity, and the consequent desire to project one’s group as distinctive and unique, has also contributed to the increase in the number of caste and ethnic groups,” writes Pitambar Sharma in his 2014 analysis of the 2011 census, <a href="https://soscbaha.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/some-aspects-on-nepals-social-demography.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Some Aspects of Nepal’s Social Demography</a>.In fact, rising ethnic awareness and openness have resulted in a sharp population increase of some ethnic communities like the Kami and Badi that previously went underreported. The Kami population increased by 40.4% from 2001 to 2011, going from almost 0.9million to more than 1.2 million. Meanwhile, the Badi population went from 4,893 in 2001 to 38,603 in 2011, increasing by 678%.“In the case of Kami, many of them had concealed their own caste identity, putting down a surname of either the high-caste Hindu groups or simply reporting themselves as Dalit, without identifying their own caste in the 2001 census,” writes Dilli Ram Dahal. “Recording of Badi was also the same in the 2001 census. Many of them simply put their family name “Nepali”, and later the CBS labelled them as Dalit or unidentified Dalit.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5869c7e80680e096712jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="626"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Indeed, ethnic and caste groups counted in the ‘other’ category have also decreased over the years, with the numbers going down from more than 800,000 in 1991 to a little more than 100,000 in 2011. This signifies that CBS has been collecting more accurate data and is becoming more inclusive and aware of Nepal’s diverse ethnic landscape.Meanwhile, internal migration has led to depopulation in the mountains and hills of Nepal in the last decade, with people moving South to the Tarai in search of better opportunities. 'Ethnic groups who have moved away from their native areas were more concentrated in the Tarai areas adjoining their hill habitats,' writes Pitambar Sharma in his analysis. This has made the Tarai more ethnically diverse and more heterogeneous than the hill and mountain populations. In comparison, major Tarai caste/ethnic groups were less mobile, continuing to reside in their native areas.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121148/636ce5899c7e80680e096713jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="876" height="715"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The effects of urban migration are also clear in cities like Kathmandu, where significant migration by people of other ethnic communities has led to the Newa community no longer remaining a majority in terms of population, according to the 2011 census.Yet even as Nepalis seek to carve out separate identities in the current socio-cultural climate, studies and experts acknowledge that there is a gap in data due to the absence of extensive surveys to identify Nepal’s distinct ethnic compositions and cultures.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGs5AKAqBxWcsFpWndSFaItFSLfSg">Lies, damned lies, and statistics</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/remembering-the-1961-census/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/remembering-the-1961-census/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1618706386602000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFNnRId5olOIWaMI35aM8tnwor0xA">Remembering the 1961 census</a>, Bhairab Risal

Nepal to conduct census amidst Covid-19 surge

<img width="1730" height="1100" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be0dc9c7e80680e083e17jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>When Nepal conducted its first census in 1911, the country’s population was barely 5.6 million. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8345#.X6oMhi8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D8345%23.X6oMhi8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZZ9DB4WTsI83an4wR3JmsNg9zCg">2001 census</a> put the population at 22 million, and the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/09/27/nepals-population-26-6-million/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/09/27/nepals-population-26-6-million/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGyaAv2SCNWIVpYJQf8dR_jh5qLJQ">last census in 2011</a> had shown it to be 26.6 million. Next year’s count will likely total Nepal’s population to have crossed 30 million.Nearly 110 years ago, when Prime Minister Chandra Shumshere Rana ordered the census, the intention was primarily to find out how many able-bodied men there were who could be conscripted into the military, or offered to the British Army’s Gurkha brigades.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-the-2020s/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-the-2020s/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFbp7tKahVnJABcebFf5cY1dZ3Wlw">The 2021 census</a>, the first under a federal system, will try to find out how many of the estimated 7 million households in the country today have family members working abroad, gauge their living standard, and probe local conditions.The <a href="https://cbs.gov.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://cbs.gov.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNECpkvaciSP64_MX2T2GB-fYnlKZQ">Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS)</a> is hoping that the Covid-19 crisis will have subsided enough for 43,000 enumerators to fan out across the country from 8-22 June, 2021 interviewing every household and digitally count not just the number of Nepalis, but also find out their socio-economic status.“We conducted a pilot census this year during the pandemic, and we know what to expect. Even under present conditions we will be able conduct a complete census, observing all necessary precautions,” said Nebin Lal Shrestha of the CBS, speaking at a webinar organised by the Society of Economic Journalists of Nepal on Monday.With 210 days to go, the countdown has begun. The Bureau has a packed timetable of training events, setting up census offices in all provinces, districts and local municipalities. Unlike in past census, when teachers were deployed as data collectors, this time the CBS put out vacancy notices to select them.The national census has been <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8067#.X6oMxC8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D8067%23.X6oMxC8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGcmrq3PuwIv8NZ1KxgwXlZyc7uLA">held every 10 years</a>, and for the first time this year’s survey will also provide accurate statistics on household property, livestock, profession, migration, income, skilled human resources, access to banking services, health and education status.Next year’s survey will cost Rs4.5 billion and will have 25 questions in the first part for household data, and the main questionnaire will have 55 questions which will be answered collectively on issues like drinking water supply, electricity, mobile phones, vehicle ownership, property with female ownership, family members abroad and the work they do. The questionnaires will also probe ward-by-ward agricultural statistics about production, markets, income, etc.The census will also collect data on age, languages spoken, religion, gender, education status, health conditions, and other personal parameters. The 2011 census counted 123 languages spoken in Nepal, including endangered ones like the Kusunda which had only 28 speakers left ten years ago. That number is now down to two.There will also be a census of buildings, how many are old and new, and differentiate what they are used for. It will include a community survey, one of the first in the world, to access availability of government services, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605067342815000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkrb2yNTpK34_cARmg2vQWwvlsxw">disaster preparedness</a> and access to natural resources.The census results are expected to show improvements in school enrolment, a lower fertility rate, and population growth rate, and income. The census may also show that Nepal’s ‘youth bulge’ on its population pyramid will be wider. But there may be some indicators, like the sex ratio and migration, that may show lack of progress.A census is important to update data from the 2011 exercise on the country’s demographic profile so that planners can chart out priorities and a future course. The statistics will also be critical in demarcating electoral constituencies, to determine people’s representatives from the proportional representation quota and to mobilise resources for local development efforts.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19836#.X6oVm_MzbIU">Censoring the census</a>, Nepali Times<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16733#.X6oVnvMzbIU">Counting on Nepal</a>, Indu Nepal<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8345#.X6oVnPMzbIU">Census 2001</a>, Hemlata Rai

Nepal’s population to cross 30 million

Walkabout with Anil: Gai Jatra

<figure><img title="page-1a" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66fe9c7e80680e0599b5jpeg.jpg" alt="page-1a"/><figcaption>Photo : SHEILIN TEO</figcaption></figure>At the cusp of a new year and a new decade, Nepalis must take stock of promises not kept and the opportunities lost to take the country forward in the last 10 years.In 2010, there was optimism that with <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10616#.XftPE9UzbIV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the war ended</a> and a new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-constitution-3-years-later/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitution</a> being drafted, the country could convert stability into prosperity. The vision was turned into a political slogan, but the decade was squandered.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaThe most spectacular failure has been in governance, and over the past two years. Despite local elections that promised accountability and a ruling party commanding a two-thirds majority, Nepal is still drifting aimlessly without a coherent strategy for the future.But Nepal never fails to surprise. We make progress regardless of all the obstacles. This is the only low-income country with low growth that has more than halved its <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty rate in the past 10 years</a>. Despite conflict and disasters, and despite government, Nepal took rapid strides in human development. Imagine how much further we would have gone if we had better leadership.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade?,</a> Sonia AwaleIn this year-ender edition we take a look forward to see what the coming decade has in store for us. Where will Nepal be in 2030? Planners, and even astrologers, are optimistic the country will take a great leap forward.We would like to believe National Planning Commission Member Min Bahadur Shahi when he says: “The 2020s will be a progressive decade of sustainable and just development. There will be double-digit growth, increased investment from the government and the focus will be on quality, not quantity.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaNepalis have been let down before, and they will have a chance in 2022 to cast their verdict in the next elections. But the challenge for planners is to get out of the low-growth, high-migration trap so the country can graduate to middle-income status by 2030.

Towards 2030

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f29c7e80680e0599b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1062"/><figcaption>Photo : SONIA AWALE</figcaption></figure>Nepal is stepping up preparations for its 10-year census in 2021, which is slated to be the most hitech in history and will go beyond simply counting the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nepals-changing-demography-is-having-profound-impact-on-politics,2693" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s population</a> to surveying households in order to chart the country’s path in the coming decade.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaEnumerators from the <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://cbs.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Bureau of Statistics</a> (CBS) will be using tablets to enter data during a pilot census in 14 districts next month. The actual census in June 2021 is expected to give an accurate picture of Nepal’s demography and how it has progressed in <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/">health</a>, <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">education</a> and development.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade?,</a> Sonia AwaleFor the first time, data will be collected at the lowest administrative unit, the ward, and also include information on housing, migration, jobs and income. The census will cost Rs4.5 billion and employ 43,000 enumerators.“Previous censuses only went down to the district level, and enumerators used two forms: a short form for every household, and a long form used on every eighth household,” says Bijay Thapa of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which is collaborating with the government on the census. “After federalism, local governments also want disaggregated data and we will have detailed information on every household.”Next year’s exercise will also count the number of old and new buildings and note whether they are residential, official, commercial or unused. It will include a community survey, one of the first in the world, to assess availability of government services, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disaster preparedness</a> and access to natural resources.“This will help us determine if people are making the best use of government services,” says CBS Director Dhundiraj Lamichhane. “Nepal has categorised 276 municipalities as urban, but we do not know if the resources available match the international criteria for urban municipalities. This survey will help us determine that. If successful, it will be a model for other countries.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a>Sanghamitra SubbaLamichhane said the questions enumerators will ask have not yet been finalised, but there are demands from various communities to include ones on mother tongue, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-right-of-passage/">disabilities</a> and sexual orientation. Activists say there are 900,000 <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Night-and-%20Day,3145">LGBTI people in Nepal</a>, but the 2011 census showed only 1,500 so the figure was not included in the results.“This time they want more detailed questions to reflect their diversity, but we think it is better to do a separate survey,” says Lamichhane. “Various castes and ethnicities are also demanding to be included, but we will only do so if recommended by relevant government bodies.”Going by past trends and other sample surveys, experts have already projected results of the 2021. Nepal is expected to continue showing improvements on most indicators, including birth rate, population growth, health and education. However, they say some indicators, like the sex ratio and migration, may not show progress.One of the reasons Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/">population growth rate is low is because of the absentee population</a>: 1.92 million according to the last census. And there is no reason to believe that the percentage of migrants will decrease or even stabilise in next year’s count. However, internal migration is expected to slow because of more education and employment opportunities at local levels.Nepal’s current sex ratio is 94 males per 100 females,<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f59c7e80680e0599b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="461" height="500">and the sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females. This is considered normal, since there are usually slightly more male children born than females, but females tend to live longer.“Female foeticide is growing even though it is illegal. The next census may show a greater ratio of male babies born to female ones, and we estimate the sex ratio at birth to rise to 110 males to 100 females. Additionally, the national average may hide greater discrepancies in certain districts or cities where female foeticide is more rampant, and we need to watch out for that,” explains Tirtha Tamang of UNFPA.Demographic indicators like birth, fertility and death rates are all set to decrease, which means that Nepal’s population growth rate will continue to slow. The 2021 census is likely to show a wider ‘youth bulge’ in the population pyramid. Although this provides a ‘<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">demographic dividend</a>,’ with a bigger workforce that could lead to a development boom, Nepal must be able to cash in on this window of opportunity in the next 10 years. Given the current quality of governance, experts doubt it will happen.Nepal’s youth advantage will last till 2047. After that, the country will be grappling with the complications of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624">an ageing society</a>. In fact, Nepal will start losing some of its youth power about 2028, when the population over 65 will be more than 7%. The next decade is key for Nepal to use its demographic dividend to provide jobs at home and boost economic growth.Despite improvements in education, health, life expectancy and income, the country may not be in a position to make the best of its demographic dividend because of the skewed sex ratio caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/irresistible-forces-wage-differentials-and-demographic-trends/">outmigration</a>. According to a report by the National Planning Commission, the country sorely needs to invest in policies that make the best of the potential of youth.Says Lamichhane at the CBS: “If young Nepalis at the peak of their abilities <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/">continue to leave the country</a>, then Nepal will not make great strides in development. In the next decade we need policies to modernise agriculture and improve infrastructure if we want to retain our youth and have them contribute to the country.”<h2>21 of Nepal’s most endangered languages</h2>When Nepal’s last census was published in 2011, language became one of the most hotly-debated indicators. Many doubted that the census accurately reflected the status of Nepal’s languages. This time, the Language Commission is working with the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to make a more comprehensive tally.The 2011 census counted 123 languages spoken in Nepal, including foreign languages like English, French, Spanish and Chinese. Also, there was a belief that many people who had forgotten their ancestral language nevertheless registered those languages as their mother tongue, leading to higher numbers of speakers of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Mind-your-languages,133" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endangered languages</a> registered than in reality. The Kusunda language, for example, has only two speakers left, but the census records 28.“The languages should be categorised as foreign and native to Nepal, so that we don’t count European languages as our own,” says Bharat Tripathi of the Language Commission. “Also, the last time there were only two questions asked about language: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13412#.XftV_JMzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mother tongue</a> and second language. This time we want to change that to: mother tongue, second language and ancestral language.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f79c7e80680e0599b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="947">While the CBS is still debating these suggestions, it has agreed to include six more languages newly catalogued by the Language Commission, bringing the total to 129. “We investigated Rana Tharu, Narafu, Chum, Nubri/Lharke, Poike and Serake languages in the past year. Through linguistic methodologies, we have established that they are distinct languages,” says Tripathi. “This year we have received claims from speakers of Marek Yakhya and Walung languages in Taplejung — we are in the process of investigating them.”These languages are usually spoken by very few people, and are added to the list of endangered languages. The commission has identified 37 languages spoken by fewer than 1,000 people, and placed 21 of them on that list, but there may be many more hidden among less populous communities. The commission is working to document these 21 languages by collecting their grammar, determining their alphabets, writing their language histories and documenting the available folklore.It is doubtful if all of the 129 languages will survive even till the census in June 2021. But most certainly many will be gone by the 2031 census.

Nepal in the 2020s

The newly-formed Himalayan Art Council is set to launch Nepal’s National Art Protection Platform that seeks to preserve <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage">Nepal’s unique cultural heritage </a>using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship"> AI-powered tools</a>. The Council seeks to safeguard <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepali-art-going-places">Nepali art works</a> from neglect, theft and counterfeiting as well as preserve existing artwork and celebrate living masters by giving them a cultural space to continue the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/sacred-survival">sacred art traditions</a>. "We are introducing a new digital platform designed to preserve, verify and elevate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-new-generation-of-alternative-artists">Nepal’s art for generations to come,</a>” says a statement from the Council, adding that the digital platform will use AI told for authentication and blockchain to keep track of works of art. Artists can now be protected by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai?fbclid=IwAR1uwmTVq4gUB70ljfRezjzukD9ArWXPuMnUikopeQ8PoiZMjicToPSwhKE&amp;=1">AI tools</a> that detect forgeries, identify their work even when unsigned, and ensure they receive proper recognition and credit. The archives will be searchable with translated inscription and interactive guides. Says curator Meena Lama: “AI and blockchains are tools that give us the power to detect fakes and identify unsigned paintings and track every piece. With these tools we can restore trust, secure authorship and give artists the dignity they deserve.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53" data-rendition-name="original" width="1300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum."> <figcaption>Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  The Council is also holding an exhibition of Nepali cultural masterpieces with 50 historical <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-the-art,671">thangka and paubha </a>by past masters and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/between-the-sacred-and-everyday">contemporary works by current artists</a>. This curated collection is a living tribute to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">Himalayan culture</a> with economic depictions of deities, mandala and sacred narratives. The exhibition at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/a-portal-into-patan-s-past-and-present">Patan Museum</a> also provides an opportunity to meet painters and custodians of art and culture. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/golden-deities">Golden deities</a>, Sewa Bhattarai ‘The exhibition is only the first step in a long journey to ensure that Nepali art is no just seen but fully understood, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Narratives-of-Faith-and-Memory-Remembering-the-Lost-Sculptures-of-Kathmandu-exhibition,987">protected and remembered</a>,’ the Council says. Artist Kailash K Shrestha of Artudio has spent decades promoting thankha and paubha traditions because of their beauty and devotional meaning. But he also says artists are underpaid, exploited and ignored. He adds, “AI and blockchain are not just buzzwords, they are powerful tools that can protect Nepal’s artists from fraud, verify authenticity and build a permanent record of provenance.” Traditional Art Exhibition Till 17 May Patan Museum

Digital protection for Nepal’s art

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;