<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121116/637223779c7e80680e0c0352jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Finance Minister Janardan Sharma’s budget last month unveiled a plan to increase domestic agricultural production by one-third. On paper it sounds like a good way to reduce the country’s food imports. But upon closer inspection, the decision is too ambitious,and unrealistic.Given the trends in falling agricultural productivity over the decades due to a chronic lack of irrigation, improved seeds, fertiliser and most recently, the climate crisis, domestic farm output is not expected to increase much..The government wants to boost paddy productivity from the current 5.13 million metric tons to 6.69 which is a 30% increase in just a year. Two years ago, Nepal had hit a record high yield of at 5.62 million metric tons only for it to come down by 8.74% last year due to unseasonal rains at harvest time.“This is a very ambitious target and even as we are making an action plan on how to achieve it, it looks very challenging,” admits PrakashSanjel of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.In 1961, Nepal used to grow only 1.9 metric tons of paddy per hectare. This was before the green revolution and the use of modern technology in agriculture and paddy productivity. But improved seeds, chemical fertilisers and new farming techniques in the last decades have revolutionised agriculture.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-affects-himalayan-rice/">Climate change hits Himalayan rice</a>, Erica WuHybrid seeds that mix varieties of rice with different qualities, capacity to adapt to soil and climate, have significantly increased the yield. In China, hybrid paddy, now grown in more than half of the total rice area, yields an average of 7 metric tons per hectare. Bangladesh has similarly reached productivity of 5 metric tons per hectare with the use of hybrid seeds.Nepal on the other hand took 60 years to double its productivity. It went up from 2.7 tons per hectare in 2001/02, 2.9 10 years later and now it is 3.47. As per the budget target, this has to increase to 4.5 tons per hectare in a year. In the past, it had taken Nepal nearly 20 years to increase its productivity by one ton a hectare.At present, about 10% of the total paddy cultivation in Nepal is estimated to be from hybrid varieties and three-fourths of the area has used improved seeds. The National Rice Research Center has recommended hybrid seeds of two varieties namely Hardinath-1 and Hardinath-3, but farmers also use hybrid seeds imported from India.Government agro scientists first recommended improved seeds in 1966, a CH-45 ChaiteDhan seed that produces 3.5 tons of rice per hectare. Since then, 97 varieties (22 of which have been removed from the recommended list) of improved seeds have been delivered to the farmers.But the acceptance of hybrid and improved seeds in Nepal has been slow. Paddy seeds should be replaced every 3/4 years, but most farmers the same seed over and over again. In Nepal, the replacement rate of paddy seeds is only about 24%.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121116/6372237a9c7e80680e0c0353jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1271" height="802">The increase in productivity has not kept pace with population growth over the last decades.A decrease in cultivable land due to rapid urbanisation has also reduced production. While the government estimates that 1.477 million hectares of land is used for paddy plantation, the figure is based on the census conducted 10 years ago and does not take into account changing land use patterns.“When much of the cultivable land in the Tarai districts are being turned into housing, how can we expect the paddy production to grow?” asks one frustrated official at the ministry.Similarly, in the lack of a proper irrigation system, farmers are still dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Which is why yields every year are determined by the monsoon. Only a third of Nepal's total cultivable land has irrigation facilities throughout the year.Irrigation or lack thereof is also the reason farming communities have been so affected by the climate crisis.Moreover, farmers across Nepal face chronic fertiliser shortage every year, and less than half the demand of 900,000 tons is met. Failure to fertilise paddy plants on time reduces the yield by one-third, and applying 1kg of fertiliser increases harvests by 10kg.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/can-nepal-be-self-sufficient-in-rice,3598">The price of growing rice</a>, Sahina Shrestha“Irrigation, improved seeds and chemical fertilisers are the main prerequisites for increasing productivity. Once they are met, Nepal can become self-sufficient,” says Ram BaranYadav of the National Rice Research Program, adding that the country needs a total of 7.2 million tons of paddy production or 5 tons of rice per hectare to feed itself.At present, Nepal imports 1.6 million tons of paddy to meet demand. In the last 10 months, it imported rice worth Rs42.19 billion. Experts say one way to improve productivity is to prioritise Chaitedhan over the annual paddy as the former’s yield is up to 30% higher.But it is near impossible to improve agriculture productivity after decades of state neglect. The government can however immediately invest more in procuring chemical fertilisers on time while also promoting organic manure generated domestically at industrial-scale biogas plants.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121116/6372237d9c7e80680e0c0354jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The finance minister in his budget speech claimed to have significantly increased the budget for agriculture, but it is up just to 6.68% from 6.25% the year before. Added to other pre-existing challenges, this is highly unlikely to meet the government’s production target in a year.Says Yadav: "It is not possible to leap in production in a single year. It requires long preparation and political will."Much like paddy, maize and wheat production has not seen any significant growth in recent years. Maize production 30 years ago was 1.62 ton per hectare, today it is 3.15.The Ministry of Agriculture estimates maize harvest at 3.1 million metric tons this year, up from 2.179 million tons 10 years ago. Even then, this is an increase of just 1 ton in 10 long years. But the budget has outlined additional production of 931,000 metric tons this year alone.“Sure, it is possible to increase production as per the targets but make sure the farmers have enough fertiliser, seeds and irrigation facilities,” advises ChitraBahadurKunwar of the National Maize Research Program in Rampur.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/agroecology-nepals-answer-to-climate-change/">Agroecology, Nepal’s answer to climate change</a>, Zachary BartonLike rice, productivity of maize lies in the use of improved seeds. The Maize Research Program has recommended 7 hybrids and 24 improved varieties to farmers. But according to Kunwar, high-yielding hybrid seeds are planted by only 5% of the farmers, most do not even have access to improved seeds.The chronic lack of fertilisers also applies to maize, directly affecting its domestic production. An increase in consumption of poultry has meant that farmers are having to meet the deficit by importing an increasing amount of maize for chicken feed.In the last 10 months, Nepal has imported wheat worth Rs.15.83 billion. The government aims to increase wheat production from 2.145 million metric tons to 2.78. This means an additional production of 643,000 tons in a single year. Earlier, it took Nepal nearly a decade and a half to increase its yield by that much.The productivity of wheat has reached about 3 tons per hectare, twice as much as 30 years ago but is nowhere close to what is required to be self-sufficient.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/corruption-and-nepals-chronic-fertiliser-crisis/">Corruption and Nepal’s chronic fertiliser crisis</a>, Kaustubh Dhital

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Nepal sets ambitious target for food sufficiency

<figure><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221029c7e80680e0c0296jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>The newly-elected Mayor of Kathmandu Balen Shah has called waste management of the city his top priority. Even before being sworn in, he visited the Sisdol landfill site to see what a challenge he has given himself. Mayor Shah wants to incinerate segregated waste at the new dumping site in Bancharedanda, and compost the biodegradable garbage into fertiliser to distribute to farmers.All good ideas, but what the structural engineer/rapper mayor may have missed is the potential to turn the waste also into biogas.Urban municipalities across Nepal generate over 2,200 metric tons of solid waste a year, 54% of which is organic, and this could generate close to 10,000 metric tons of methane gas. Gasifying just the waste from Kathmandu Valley could produce 1,700 cylinders of bio-CNG daily.“Given that more than half of Nepal’s municipal garbage is biodegradable, generating bio-CNG in digesters could be the answer to energy self-sufficiency and sustainability,” writes Sushmita Dulal of WindPower Nepal.She adds: “This is a win-win, it improves the urban environment, reduces carbon emission and slashes the trade deficit by substituting LPG and chemical fertiliser use.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/waste-to-value-with-biogas-in-nepal/">Waste to value with biogas in Nepal</a>, Sushmita DulalNepal has already demonstrated that it is a pioneer in household biogas, with more than 300,000 digesters in use that turn farm manure into kitchen gas.The focus has now shifted from domestic biogas to industrial-scale plants for densely populated urban centres. At present, there are 18 commercial biogas plants across Nepal, nine of them under construction.One of them is Gandaki Urja in Pokhara, the third industrial-scale biogas plant in Nepal and also the largest, with a digester volume of 3,000 cubic metres. It started operations in December 2019, and has been supplying bio-CNG cylinders to big hotels, restaurants, as well as selling fertiliser made from the effluent.But the lack of raw material (manure and waste biomass) due to minimal waste segregation at the source, Gandaki Urja is having to feed its digesters waste from agriculture and poultry farms and is only generating 1,200 tons of biogas a day.Half of the plant’s revenue comes from the effluent which is dried and sold as organic fertiliser in farms in Kaski and Tanahu. The plant can produce up to 11,000 tons of fertiliser a year, and while it is nowhere near Nepal’s total demand of 900,000 tons a year, there will be more organic fertiliser when other commercial plants are built. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-bullshit/">This is bullshit</a>, Kunda Dixit <figure><img width="1296" height="616" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221069c7e80680e0c0297jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Says Kushal Gurung of Gandaki Urja: “Every year Nepal suffers from a chronic lack of chemical fertilisers but it could become a net exporter with a potential of generating 2.5 million tons a year provided that the government prioritises and invests in organic fertilisers.”The biggest challenge for developers is that LPG gets over Rs1,000 subsidy per cylinder, although the new budget plans to slash the tax rebate.This means the cost per kg for the bio-Compressed Natural Gas (bio-CNG) has to be the same as that of the LPG regardless of its higher manufacturing cost.“At the rate our petroleum imports are going up, there is no way we will meet our climate targets but I have not lost hope,” says Gurung. “Turning to biogas is a no-brainer. It will create jobs, convert waste into energy, reduce greenhouse gas emission, as well as generate organic fertiliser which will increase soil fertility.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/toilet-cafe/">Toilet Cafe</a>, Aria Shree ParasaiBut technological know-how remains a big challenge in scaling up commercial biogas in Nepal. All the machinery has to be imported and in case of repairs or damage, there is no local skill, adding to the cost of operation. Nepal government’s Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) has been at the forefront of promoting biogas. Until recently it was also providing technical support and subsidy to industrial plants (up to 40% in machinery) before the World Bank stopped its investment in biogas.“Biogas is the answer to waste management in Nepal. Increasing job opportunities and reducing our dependence on LPG with this alternative sounds great too but it is not easy to secure funding,” explains AEPC bioenergy expert Sushim Amatya.If biogas is to substitute a bigger portion of Nepal’s LPG consumption, developers need government subsidies and investment to be directed in the most cost-efficient sectors.One strategy could be to promote different forms of alternative energies side by side: upgrading Nepal’s electricity infrastructure so that transmission lines can handle increased supply, while also subsidising biogas by slashing the rebate on LPG. Adds Amatya: “Subsidising LPG makes absolutely no sense, it benefits only India and the Gulf. It will definitely not help the climate but renewables also need to be easily available and affordable, the notion of cleaning up the environment alone will not move the general population unless cost-effectiveness is added to the mix.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/toilet-trained-in-nepal/">Toilet-trained in Nepal</a>, Aryan Sitaula

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Nepal sets ambitious target for food sufficiency

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