&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230112100136_63bfd4f89c7e80680e0d30c8jpeg.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230112100136_63bfd4f89c7e80680e0d30c8jpeg" data-rendition-name="original" width="642" height="635" loading="lazy" alt=" "> <figcaption> </figcaption> </figure>  Nepalis had much to look forward to in 2022. The pandemic had abated, tourism was picking up, and the second series of elections under the federal system were set to take place. Barely two months into the year, Russia invaded Ukraine and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/" target="_blank">the war hit Nepal’s struggling economy hard</a>. A steep rise in the petroleum import bill further depleted state coffers, and widened the trade gap. Political disarray led to ministerial mis-steps and delayed government response. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people/" target="_blank">Local elections</a> in May consolidated the coalition, but the strong showing of the independents in federal elections shook the established parties. However, the leaders have ignored the national mood and in a repeat of 2017, Nepal’s Communist parties have joined forces to form <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics/" target="_blank">another coalition government</a>, this time of seven parties with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the Prime Minister for the third time. Nepali politics continues to be defined by a coalition governments devoid of ideology and incapable of solving urgent problems like creating jobs, curbing pollution, or addressing the climate crisis. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100136/63bfd4fc9c7e80680e0d30c9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="659" height="635"></div> A recap of the year that was through the 12 front pages of Nepali Times in 2022: Pollution and exploitation <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/happy-new-air/" target="_blank">Nepali Times’ first issue for 2022</a> carried an image of brick kilns spewing smoke. That, combined with vehicular emissions and open burning meant that Kathmandu residents were breathing the dirtiest air in the world, reducing their lifespans by 4 years. Garbage piled up on the streets of the capital even as the rivers and mountains were ravaged by illegal quarries and sand mining. As the country plunged headlong from a Covid pandemic into a dengue epidemic. Climate breakdown The year saw worsening impact of the climate crisis, with heat waves and weather extremes. Himalayan glaciers continued to melt, and two-thirds of what remains will be gone during this century. COP27 in Egypt agreed on a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-next-after-cop27-ld-fund/" target="_blank">Loss and Damage Fund</a>, but failed to agree on a more ambitious emission target. But Nepal’s leaders cannot blame global warming for everything -- many of our problems predate the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-climate-crisis-is-a-water-crisis-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank">climate crisis</a>. More than to save the planet, Nepal must reduce petroleum imports to save its economy from collapse. Migration Nepali Times continued its coverage of the hopes and sorrows of Nepali migrant workers overseas, and added its voice to calls for compensation for the abuse and<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/world-cup-ending-without-migrant-relief/" target="_blank"> deaths of workers building World Cup infrastructure</a> in Qatar. Remittances have started picking up again after the Covid slowdown, propping up the economy. It is not just workers who are leaving, as our investigation last week showed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-hard-working-students-overseas/" target="_blank">students are leaving in droves</a> with many of them taking this path to emigration. New blood&nbsp; The local election in May and<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-nepali-people-have-spoken/" target="_blank"> federal and provincial polls</a> in November indicated that while the established parties are still dominant, many Nepalis are fed up with them. Rapper-engineer Balen Shah became mayor of Kathmandu, while young professionals were elected to the federal parliament. &nbsp;While traditional politicians will try to trip up the new entrants every step of the way, their very presence in legislative positions provides a glimmer of hope that democracy may finally deliver. Shristi Karki

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2022: mandates, migrants and malaise

Since the climate change conference at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt, the media has been inundated with news of the ‘loss and damage fund’ set up to support developing countries as they face the impact of climate breakdown. The fact that the fund was actually passed by governments was quite an achievement given how stagnated the conversation around loss and damage funding for climate-induced harm has been for the past decades. It took 30 years of lobbying by countries like Nepal that are vulnerable to the climate crisis for the 198 nations that are party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to agree to establish the new fund in Sharm El-Sheikh. What is loss and damage? The concept of loss and damage goes beyond just adapting to or mitigating climate change. It addresses the kind of destruction like massive floods, severe droughts, ocean expansion that countries and communities cannot adapt to. While adaptation deals with the projected risks of climate change, loss and damage tackles the aftermath once impact have already materialised. The notable failure to agree to a way forward on loss and damage funding at the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26 last year set the stage for the negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh. It gave loss and damage funding a new prominence it did not have before, and built the momentum for talks. Yet, it is important to remember we went into the conference centre for the first time in Sharm El-Sheikh without loss and damage funding even on the agenda for the negotiations. COPs mostly begin with an agenda fight, but the all nighter to get loss and damage funding a formal space during the negotiation was a good indicator of the marathon that was to come. The vulnerable countries refused to go back from the summit without an outcome on this issue. Our persistence succeeded in the <a href="https://twitter.com/manjeetdhakal/status/1594176722362056705">establishment of a fund</a> that developing countries had been asking for since the early nineties. It bought us a step closer to getting vital resources to those on the frontlines of the climate crisis. It was also a timely reminder of how multilateralism can deliver for those who are most in need. The loss and damage agreement is a big deal for Nepal, a Himalayan country exposed to high risk from climate breakdown. A 2020 study by Climate Analytics shows that all seven provinces in Nepal are at risk from the effects of climate change, and that these risks will become more pronounced at 2°C and 3°C rise above pre-industrial levels. Currently global average temperatures are 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and scientists are urging the government to cut back emissions so it will be limited to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This risk is not only a manifestation of Nepal’s fragile climate-sensitive topography, but also the lack of planned development and weak socio-economic systems that leads to higher vulnerability. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100132/63bfd4399c7e80680e0d3095jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="675">Lubra Village is under constant threat from flash floods. Photo: RONAN WALLACE</div> Data from the BIPAD portal, the central disaster information management system of the Nepal government, shows that compared to other forms of natural disasters, climate-related floods and landslides have been steadily increasing in Nepal causing economic losses as well as loss of lives. Other forms of extreme- and slow-onset climate impacts such as glacier melt and outburst floods, forest fires, droughts and cold waves are also on the rise. The increasing frequency and severity of various hazards indicates that climate change impact in the country is growing. A 2014 ICIMOD study shows that Nepal’s glacier area decreased by 24% between 1977-2010 and another 2019 study shows that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C increase, the mountains in the region will warm by 2°C degrees and the glaciers will lose a third of their volume. This will have a significant impact on the nearly two billion people living in the region and downstream, including in Nepal. It is <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/lost-damaged-study-economic-impact-climate-change-vulnerable-countries-november-2021#:~:text=Report%20projects%20economic%20harm%20caused,and%20%2D33.1%25%20in%202100%60">estimated</a> that Nepal will experience on average a 13% reduction in its GDP by 2050 and a 33% reduction by 2100 due to climate impact even in the 1.5°C scenario. This will increase on average to around 20% reduction by 2050 and 65% reduction by 2100 under current climate policies. These are conservative estimates that do not take into account all forms of climate impacts, and are in addition to the non-economic loss and damage the country will face. The loss and damage fund agreed at COP27 is huge given that to date no finance had been made available through existing processes within the UNFCCC to address it. While a fund was established building on the momentum from Glasgow, the specifics of what the fund looks like, where it will be placed, how it will be sourced and how it will function remains to be decided. The way forward to design and operationalise the fund is important. A transitional committee tasked to work on the design of the fund will meet three times next year to deliberate on these matters, and will present recommendations for the consideration of countries at COP28 in UAE next year so it will be operational by end 2023. The process has begun to nominate members of the transitional committee, which will comprise 14 members from developing countries and 10 members from developed countries. Under the developing countries category, three members will be nominated from the Asia and the Pacific region and two from the Least Developed Countries LDCs. It is vital that the new loss and damage fund sits in parallel with existing funds like the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as an operating entity under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. It should expedite and have flexible disbursement of resources to ensure support immediately in the aftermath of a climate event. This would not be possible if the fund were to sit under the GEF and the GCF which follow a program-based approach. At COP27, LDCs negotiated on loss and damage as a part of the Group of 77 and China — the negotiating bloc comprising 134 developing countries. There is a view from the developed countries that the funding arrangements to respond to loss and damage should include other loss and damage financing initiatives outside of the UNFCCC as well. While the LDC Group welcomes any support on loss and damage, proposals outside of the UNFCCC are seen as falling outside of the mandate of the climate negotiations, and the governments that take part in them. They are, therefore, seen as not being not pertinent to the negotiations ongoing under the Convention and Paris Agreement. Nepal's role Nepal needs to work on further strengthening its institutions and policies to better document and respond to climate impacts, and coordinate with agencies already engaged on disaster- and humanitarian-related support. Currently the BIPAD portal tracks both climate-related and other disasters together. Now more thought needs to be given on how the data can be disaggregated to demonstrate climate change impact. Furthermore, establishing climate linkage and collecting information and data on slow onset events remains key. Nepal has a special role to play in the design of the loss and damage fund in the coming year. We are best positioned to amplify voices on the accelerated impacts of climate change in the highlands. It will also be important to continue to build on Nepal’s expertise on climate change to maintain leadership at both the national and international levels and to steward the negotiations so the loss and damage fund can &nbsp;respond effectively to the urgent needs of the world’s most vulnerable. Manjeet Dhakal is Head of LDC Support Team at Climate Analytics (CA) and Director for Climate Analytics South Asia office. Sneha Pandey is Sneha Pandey is a loss and damage expert with the LDC Support Team at Climate Analytics.

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What next after COP27 L&D fund?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3509c7e80680e0d3055jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1041"/><figcaption>CALVING OFF: In the past 30 years, the Imja Glacier in the Khumbu has grown into a lake 2km long as the permafrost and ice melts. Photo: KIRIL RUSEV</figcaption></figure>The Himalaya is the largest storehouse of water as ice after the polar regions, which is why it is called the Third Pole. The world’s highest mountain range is also referred to as the Water Tower of Asia, but the roof of the world is running out of water.Sky rivers bring moisture from the ocean and precipitate it as rain or snow on the mountains. Much of it seeps into the ground with the mountains acting like gigantic sponges. The rest is stored as ice and melts slowly in summer when glaciers bring them down.But climate change is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heating up the Himalaya</a> faster than the global average, disrupting this water cycle. The rains are becoming more erratic, either coming in torrents or not at all, groundwater is depleting, and glaciers have shrunk.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3549c7e80680e0d3056jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="109">Rivers originating in the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau that sustain the inhabitants of the mountains as well as 1 billion Asians downstream will have less water in the dry season in the coming decades.If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, scientists predict that two-thirds of Himalayan glaciers will be gone during this century. Already, there is a river running through Everest Base Camp, and runnels in the Khumbu Icefall may turn it into a waterfall in the not-too-distant future.Khim Lal Gautam, who was part of the team that measured the height of Mt Everest to greater accuracy in 2020, has climbed the world’s highest mountain twice and has noticed the changes.“The moraine and permafrost here at the Everest Base Camp is melting dangerously. The glacier is collapsing, every time I come here there is less and less ice,” says Gautam.He adds: “The accelerated melting means there is now this big river running through Base Camp. In the last six years, the average temperature here has increased by six degrees.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">It is getting hotter on the roof of the world</a>, Kunda Dixit<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd3569c7e80680e0d3057jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="671"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Across the Himalaya, iconic peaks like Mt Machapuchre have turned into bare rock during some seasons. Between October 2008 to October 2020, Mt Saipal at 7,031m in far west Nepal lost most of its ice, shocking mountaineers, scientists and locals alike.In 2006, the serac below the summit of Ama Dablam that gave the mountain its name broke off killing six climbers. “Ama Dablam means mother’s necklace, and a chunk of this big block of ice collapsed and thundered down,” says environmentalist and entrepreneur Dawa Steven Sherpa. “We are not just losing our mountains but a large part of our identity and what they mean to us.”Researchers have made similar observations in the Karakoram in Pakistan, in the Tibetan Plateau, Bhutan and India where the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-mountains-are-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">permafrost is melting and glaciers receding</a>.“In the past, glaciers in the Karakoram were more stable than elsewhere in the Himalaya … but now even these glaciers have started melting,” says Pakistani remote sensing specialist Sher Muhammad, who is with the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).Accelerated melting has also meant that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">number of glacial lakes is increasing</a>. Nepal’s longest glacier, Ngozumpa below Mt Cho Oyu, now resembles Swiss cheese, riddled with melt pools and debris. Imja Glacier has turned into a glacial lake in just 30 years.“Imja didn’t used to be a lake, it used to be a solid glacier,” adds Dawa Sherpa. “My father camped on the glacier 60 years ago with a Japanese expedition. Today, we need a rubber boat to be where he was back then.”There are 3,252 glacial lakes in Nepal, and they are shrinking three times faster than in 1998. Many of these are filling up with melt water and are in danger of bursting. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)</a> are a threat not just to human settlements but to infrastructure projects, many of them hydropower plants which are built along rivers downstream.The massive debris flow on the Melamchi River in June 2021 that killed at least 30 people, submerged settlements, and nearly destroyed Nepal’s biggest infrastructure project to supply water to Kathmandu, was caused by a heavy monsoon downpour bringing down glacial sediments no longer cemented by permafrost.While melting mountains are more visible, many more people are affected across the Himalaya by springs going dry and reduced flow on rivers. People are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abandoning villages and homesteads</a> because of prolonged droughts and dry springs.Women left behind are having to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/women-and-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">shoulder the burden</a> of household chores including fetching water from further away, even as there is less water to irrigate terrace farms. In parts of Nepal, this has led to an increase in child marriage and the school dropout rate for girls, undermining the country’s past gains.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Forests replace glaciers in the Himalaya</a>, Tufan Neupane<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100128/63bfd35a9c7e80680e0d3058jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4288" height="2848"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The theme of this year's International Mountain Day on 11 December is 'Women Move Mountains'. Climate change in the mountains is not just a crisis but also an opportunity to empower women and local communities.From rainwater harvesting, reviving ponds, and drip irrigation to planting sugarcane and Napier grass on riverbanks to reduce flood risks, there are many successful examples in Nepal of local adaptation.But much like air pollution, tackling the impact of climate change in the Himalaya needs a cross-border and regional collaboration. In fact, worsening regional air pollution is leading to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">an acceleration in melting</a>.Black carbon and soot particles from vehicular emission, industries and fires are reaching higher altitudes and increasing the melt rate of glaciers already thawing due to global warming.Says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/we-have-not-respected-the-fragility-of-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho</a> from Bhutan: “We need to put more focus on building transboundary cooperation. That has always been our mandate, but I think now, we need to fast forward these initiatives.”The Himalaya has more biodiversity than any other place on earth because of its elevation and moisture range. Researchers say this makes it an extraordinary place for species to flourish. But climate change is impacting on this diversity of plant and animal life that have evolved in the sensitive mountain ecosystem. Many have never been studied and could have immense medicinal and utilitarian value.The recently concluded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/make-or-break-climate-summits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COP27 Climate Summit in Egypt</a> agreed on a mechanism to compensate poorer countries for loss and damage from climate change, but fell short of required decarbonisation targets. There is now serious doubt if global average temperature can be limited to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.Scientists and governments are meeting in Montréal this week to find ways to avert what they call the 'sixth extinction' -- the largest loss of biodiversity in the planet since the meteorite strike that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Some of this is due to the climate crisis, but human settlements and consumption is also destroying habitats. Just as at COP27 in Egypt, the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) in Montréal will also set targets for the global biodiversity framework.Himalayan geographer Alton C Byers who has been studying the impact of climate change on the ecosystem of the Kangchenjunga region warns: “People think mountains are invulnerable, invincible. They are not, they are some of the most fragile ecosystems in the world which is why we need to give them special consideration and protection.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/mountain-women-on-the-climate-frontlines/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mountain women on the climate frontlines</a>, Torun Dramdal and Pema Gyamtsho

Sonia Awale

The climate crisis is a water crisis in the Himalaya

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057aa9c7e80680e0ce169jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>The Himalaya is a hotspot in more ways than one. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031027000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qldtXvBBGlTizC2zYp2-6">Climate breakdown</a> is melting its ice at an unprecedented rate, countries that border the Himalaya are not in speaking terms, and the world’s youngest mountain range is in a seismically active zone.Geopolitics and geotectonics collide along the 2,400km Himalayan arc, even while its glaciers shrink and the snowline recedes. The Siachen Glacier at 6,000m elevation is the world’s highest battlefield where the militaries of India and Pakistan have been eyeball-to-eyeball since 1984. Thousands of troops have died either because of altitude or by avalanches, few in actual fighting.India and China have over 60,000 troops facing each other in a disputed part of Ladakh, and dozens on both sides were killed when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2GK9eh_kycFgXSxwoWlgF9">clashes erupted in 2020.</a>Accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers have created hundreds of new lakes along the mountains. Because they are dammed by fragile moraines, these are in danger of bursting — a risk that has been compounded by earthquake risk.The climate crisis is a water crisis, and nowhere is this more acute than in the Himalaya. What happens at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-crisis-local-solutions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-crisis-local-solutions/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1FjilnWV90pM-k7HDurzLV">UN Climate Summit (COP27)</a> in Egypt this week will determine whether greenhouse gas emissions that thaw the Himalaya will be reduced in the coming decade.Some 2 billion people living downstream depend on rivers that originate in the Himalaya and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw10rcns9BCSYKWoDyA5UyzO">Tibetan Plateau</a>. In fact, as the permanent ice in the Himalaya melts, water is going to be a strategic commodity that could further inflame geopolitical tensions in an already volatile region.In their new monograph Governing the ‘Water Tower of Asia’: The Case for a System of Integrated Knowledge for the Hindu Kush Himalaya, Jayanta Bandyopadhyay and Sayanangsu Modak of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi make a strong case for integrating water management of the ten river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range.The circulation of water vapour in the atmosphere, along rivers and of underground water does not respect international boundaries, but policies governing the water cycle are national in scope. The authors propose the creation of ‘integrated knowledge’ that is essential for combined management of water in future as the climate crisis magnifies current problems. Such knowledge has to be trans-boundary as well as trans-disciplinary, they argue.In their study, Bandyopadhyay and Modak come up with the concept of SINK (System of Integrated Knowledge) that tries to transcend present fragmented planning to include inter-disciplinary knowledge.‘Nature organises itself in a systematic and integrated manner, (but) the reductionism that has predominated the contemporary governance paradigm interrupts nature’s systems,’ they write.The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1211#.Y2irfS8RqLc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1211%23.Y2irfS8RqLc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0dXIz-K6POTNMYbr7scCxi">Himalayan landscape</a> is a ‘climate-maker’ that precipitates water from sky rivers as snow and rainfall. The ice on mountains has accumulated over millennia, advancing and retreating with the Ice Ages, but the present glacial retreat is different because of its pace, and since it is caused by anthropogenic carbon build-up in the atmosphere.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057af9c7e80680e0ce16ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1872" height="1416">Although ice and snow are more visible and get most of the attention in the climate debate, it is groundwater stored in deep aquifers and released slowly through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1SsKvIyK0otuCwZCc5E44W">perennial springs</a> into rivers on which most people depend. In fact, besides being the ‘Water Tower of Asia’, the Himalaya has also been described as a gigantic sponge.Both the ice and groundwater storage is now being impacted by global warming and the changes in landcover due to deforestation, haphazard infrastructure, or mining activities. The hydrology of Himalayan rivers from the Amu Darya to Brahmaputra, the Ganga and its Nepal tributaries, the Mekong, the Burmese rivers, and the Yangtse and the Yellow Rivers are all changing rapidly.Because of the transboundary nature of water, the author’s SINK model cannot be nationally defined. The way a country tampers with its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2kUUyQCRaI__QLPtqxk7Nr">river-floodplain ecosystem</a> does not just affect its own population, but spills over the border to people living downstream in another country.The monograph examines each of the ten Himalayan-Hindu Kush river basins. It cites the silt load on the Yellow River, the disruption caused by the three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze, dam-building by China on the Mekong and its impact on Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, the Chinese dams on the Salween and Irrawaddy that flow into Burma, the Brahmaputra-Yarlung Tsangpo that flows from China through India into Bangladesh, and the Ganga basin.Studies have shown that only 9% of the total flow of the Ganga is from glacial melt (it can be up to 50% for the Indus) More than 60% of the annual flow of the Ganga is from tributaries in Nepal, and up to 80% of that goes down during the four monsoon months.The Ganga plains in India is one of the most densely-populated parts of the world, and 70% of its area is intensely farmed — mostly along the fertile floodplains. Besides the seasonal fluctuation in its rivers, distribution of water in the basin is also unbalanced, with the western parts much drier than the east.All this has historically had a bearing on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15163#.Y2iuEC8RqLc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D15163%23.Y2iuEC8RqLc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WIAHiXmzjrQ8_I0qGWzWI">flood control embankments </a>in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, large-scale irrigation projects, and over-extraction of groundwater in the dry season. As the authors note, big flood control projects in India have exacerbated the crisis because sedimentation raises the river bed, embankments are breached, the floodplains are deprived of nutrient-rich silt.Then there are geopolitical implications for the construction of storage reservoirs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-geopolitics-of-nepals-water-and-electricity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-geopolitics-of-nepals-water-and-electricity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0qajX_1xlL10R2N9ljrZEj">regulate flow and generate electricity</a> from the Ganga’s tributaries in Nepal. But the authors warn, ’Upstream water storage is an attractive proposition to control the spate of flooding but research indicates that it could, at best, reduce the intensity of flooding.’A key paragraph in the text underlines the importance of cross-border interdisciplinary planning on rivers: ‘Monsoons and the resultant high flows in the river system are a key ingredient for the ecological integrity of the whole basin. They allow for the geomorphic actions within river corridors – generation of sediments, their transportation and deposition, recharge of aquifers and water bodies, and help enhance the productivity of land in a landscape that is still closely integrated with the natural system.The integration between the economy, ecology and society needs to be rewired to create harmony and balance preferably at a river basin or large watershed scale to respect the natural process of integration.Alas, within countries and in trans-boundary rivers there is a disregard for crossborder planning, and a fragmented approach that exploits river flows unsustainably and harms the entire ecosystem. These man made disturbances are further upended by climate breakdown.The monograph devotes an entire chapter to expounding in detail about SINK by integrating three disciplines: natural sciences, social sciences and indigenous knowledge. It rejects the historical reductionist engineering paradigm that has governed river planning. Local knowledge and re-defining ‘development’ are also critical in the SINK approach.The authors list governance challenges for professionals while addressing the multiple crises in the Himalayan basin: surviving extreme weather aggravated by climate change, sustainable sediment management, conserving biodiversity, reducing river pollution, and one that is particularly relevant to Nepal: intra-basin hydropower development.Bandyopadhyay, who earlier served with ICIMOD in Kathmandu, hopes that the recommendations will help policymakers to shift from a business-as-usual model to governance that makes integrated water management ecologically and economically sustainable -- and socially just.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057b29c7e80680e0ce16bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="912">Governing the ‘Water Tower of Asia’The Case for a System of Integrated Knowledge for the Hindu Kush HimalayaObserver Research Foundation, New Delhi. 2022119 pages<a href="http://www.orfonline.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.orfonline.org&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Qd3qkodhO3IewHU3JI_WE">www.orfonline.org</a>Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/government-for-the-future/">Government for the future</a>, Kunda Dixit

Kunda Dixit

It’s sink or swim for the Himalaya

One year after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/" target="_blank">meeting in Glasgow</a>, world governments are meeting again in Sharm El-Sheikh next week to decide on urgent measures to avert a global climate catastrophe. A lot has happened in that one year. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank">Record heat waves</a> have baked North America, Europe, South Asia and China. Wildfires have raged across the tundra, there have been unprecedented floods in Pakistan, storms have ravaged coastlines. Weather extremes that scientists had said would happen in the 2040s are already taking place. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh is happening even as smoke from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal/" target="_blank">crop residue burning</a> shrouds north India and blows up towards Himalayan glaciers, accelerating their melt. Nepal saw unseasonal post-monsoon rains that killed as many as 100 people in landslides and debris flows. There have been a slew of scientific reports in the run-up to COP27, each more alarmist than others. Despite climate denialism, there is no question that we are already in a climate emergency. It is too late to start thinking about what to do, it is time to cut emissions to limit average global temperatures to within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2050.&nbsp; This week’s <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022" target="_blank">Emissions Gap Report 2022</a> by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) calls itself ‘a testimony to inadequate action on the global climate crisis’ and calls for a credible pathway to 1.5°C which would require annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be reduced by 45% in the next eight years, and continue to decline rapidly after that. In the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/" target="_blank">Sixth Assessment Report</a> scientists have even more apocalyptic predictions. Even if the 1.5C cap is reached between 2041-2100, up to 14% of terrestrial species in nature will likely face a very high risk of extinction. If the increase is 3C then 29% of species will be gone, and half of all plant and animal species will be extinct if greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere at the present rate, and global average temperatures rise by 5°C. The IPCC warns of widespread impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure from increases in the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The worrying thing is that this is not a prediction – it is already happening. In its chapter on the world’s mountain regions, the IPCC says there will be accelerated glacial retreat, increased permafrost thaw, and an increase in the number and size of glacial lakes. Plants and pathogens will move to higher elevations. The Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau is the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank">biggest storehouse of frozen water</a> aside from the two polar regions, and up to 1.2 billion people downstream in Asia depend on rivers that originate there. The IPCC says disruptions in the water cycle will affect agriculture, and increase landslide and floods hazards. Whatever Nepal burns or does not burn and how much is not going to make much a different to the planet. But it will determine Nepal’s economic survival. It is imperative that Nepal’s new government after the November elections take resolute steps to reduce petroleum imports top reduce the country’s trade deficit, and to lessen <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/warning-breathing-is-hazardous-to-health/" target="_blank">air pollution</a>. <div class="embed-block"><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/6390579e9c7e80680e0ce166jpeg.jpg" alt="">HAZY FUTURE: Trans-border fog from industrial emissions and crop residue burning combined with Kathmandu Valley's own pollution blanket central Nepal, as seen in this aerial photo taken in November 2021. Himalayan glaciers, already melting because of climate change, thaw faster because of soot particles deposited on them. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</div> This month’s COP27 UN Climate Summit in Egypt will be immediately followed in Nepal by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/many-nepalis-say-no-not-again/" target="_blank">federal and provincial elections</a> on 20 November. The election manifestos of the political parties once more make grandiose promises, but a shift to renewable energy is not the main priority. Reducing fossil fuel use is a not an election slogan for any of them. Even so, environmentalists and energy experts say the polls are an opportunity to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/happy-new-air/" target="_blank">elect leaders who make genuine and realistic pledges</a> to switch to renewables, protecting public health by reducing air pollution, and managing solid waste. “Our stance on the climate crisis has been limited to making lofty commitments at an international platform, back home there is not much to show implementation-wise,” says climate activist Shilshila Acharya of the Avni Center for Sustainability in Kathmandu. She adds: “For climate to take a front seat in our politics, we need leaders who have understood and internalised the importance of slow-moving disasters. But they are only looking at personal gain. It is up to us citizens to vote for candidates who will implement solutions.” Indeed, while the climate crisis is global, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/good-cop-bad-cop/" target="_blank">the solutions are local</a>. Nepal’s transition to electric mass transport and household electrification to replace LPG are two low-hanging fruits for which Nepal does not need international funding. To be sure the Nepali Congress (NC) has committed to increasing the use of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank">electric vehicles</a> to 50% in the next five years. Prime Minister Deuba had promised at COP26 in Glasgow last year to make Nepal carbon neutral by 2045, but that is not going to happen with current policies. Switching just 10% of vehicles in Nepal to battery-power would save at least Rs21 billion a year in petroleum imports. It is clear that reducing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank">Nepal’s carbon footprint</a> is necessary to reduce the country’s trade deficit, and the climate contribution is a bonus. <div class="embed-block"><img width="1291" height="781" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057a29c7e80680e0ce167jpeg.jpg" alt=""></div> Nepal has seen substantial growth in the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) despite a ban on luxury cars. In the last three months alone, 705 new EV units were sold -- a five-fold increase compared to the same period last year. But most of these were private vehicles. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/" target="_blank">Electric public buses</a> still costs three times more than similar sized diesel ones, and do not enjoy the tax rebates given to private electric cars and two-wheelers. This is in direct contrast with a stated government policy to make a quarter of all private vehicles and 20% of buses in the country electric by 2025. “Electric mass transport is the solution to our problem, it will clean up the air, reduce carbon emission and use up surplus electricity,” states Bhushan Tuladhar of Sajha Yatayat which is has already rolled out three of its 40 electric buses. But there are headwinds. Because <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/potholes-in-the-highway-to-nepals-ev-future/" target="_blank">electric buses</a> are initially so expensive, financing and tax rebates are needed. Charging infrastructure is also critical. Tuladhar adds: “We just need to translate our commitments into concrete action.” For every litre of petrol or diesel sold in Nepal, the government has been collecting Rs1.5 pollution tax since 2008. The accumulated to nearly Rs10 billion could be used to subsidise electric vehicles and clean energy. Similarly, an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-bhaktapur-trolley-bus/" target="_blank">electric trolley bus depot</a> in Tikune rotting away with old vehicles could have easily been a charging station for Sajha’s new electric buses. On paper, Nepal has some forward-looking policies, some of the best in the world. The 2019 National Climate Change Policy, the 2022 Solid Waste Management Policy, the 2022 Forest Regulation, and the 2022 Land Use Regulation all address the country’s need to adapt to the impacts of climate change. <div class="embed-block"><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057a69c7e80680e0ce168jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photo: AJAY NARSINGH RANA</div> However, as the World Bank notes in its recent <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/brief/key-highlights-country-climate-and-development-report-for-nepal" target="_blank">Country Climate and Development Report</a> for Nepal: ‘Implementation of this reform agenda and prioritization of investments is incipient. Moreover, enhanced prioritization and efficiency of public expenditure are required to maximize climate and development benefits,’ Nepal’s average temperature is expected to increase by 0.9°C between 2016 and 2045 under a medium-range emissions pathway. This means winters could be drier and monsoons wetter, with up to a threefold increase in rainfall. In fact, this is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/here-today-gone-tomorrow/" target="_blank">already happening across the Himalaya</a>. It is also a warning that floods, fires, avalanches, droughts will be more severe. The World Bank report forecasts that the number of people in Nepal annually affected by flooding could double to 350,000 in the next eight years. Nepal’s economy is also expected to shrink by 7% due to climate impact. “All of our targets for emission reduction hinge on proactive implementation locally. We could have committed to net zero in the next five years if we were really serious about it, why wait till 2045?” asks environmentalist Acharya. “At this rate with our business as usual attitude, we are unlikely to be carbon neutral even if we had committed to 2060.” This year’s climate conference at Sharm El-Sheikh has been dubbed the 'implementation COP'. One of the priorities at the discussion this year would be designing a mitigation program given that the combined climate pledges of 194 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for at most around 2.4°C of warming by 2100, far from limiting it to 1.5°C and prevent further <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal/" target="_blank">catastrophic consequences</a>. Other priorities for Nepal at this conference include lobbying for the G20 nations to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure/" target="_blank">loss and damage fund</a> as well as adaptation support, says Manjeet Dhakal, adviser to the Least Developed Countries (LDC) support group at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).&nbsp; “With the Ukraine crisis and the pandemic there is reluctance to climate funding, it is even more clear we cannot wait for the international community and must do our bit to adapt immediately and save lives as well as prepare for slow-moving disasters,” Dhakal told Nepali Timeson the phone from Sharm El-Sheikh. “We are nowhere near achieving our targets but for the first time we are now beginning to see a reduction in emission, however small that might be and that makes all these lobbying and climate conferences worth it,” he added. Global lobbying at the international climate platform is crucial for a country as vulnerable to the climate crisis as Nepal. But implementation has to be local. It is once the delegates are back the real work begins. Reducing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-snow-defrosts-nepals-mountains/" target="_blank">Nepal’s notorious urban pollution</a> this winter could be a start. Says Bhushan Tuladhar: “If Kathmandu’s mayor wanted to, he can mobilise his people and at the very least stop open garbage burning this winter through awareness campaigns and proper waste collection services. The only thing missing is the political will.”

Global crisis, local solutions

<figure><img width="1122" height="810" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/6390574c9c7e80680e0ce14ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>World leaders, including from Nepal, will gather again at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt this month to assess the climate emergency, and agree on urgent measures to avert irreversible damage to the ecosphere. The Climate Summit is burdened with unnecessarily unwieldy nomenclature and acronyms which make its deliberations unnecessarily esoteric to politicians and ordinary people. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129947">UNFCCC</a>) will be having its 27th session of the Conference of Parties (COP) to take stock of the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report (<a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_CrossChapterPaper5.pdf">IPCC WG II AR 6</a>). We need to first to de-jargonise the above, and translate targets and commitments into everyday language so that people the world over understand the urgency of the emergency. Plain words would also expose the hypocrisy, grandstanding, victim-playing and victim-blaming that occurs every year at these summits.This conference is called COP27. This means governments have met every year 27 times since 1994 to find ways to ‘stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to prevent dangerous interference from human activity on the climate system’. The atmosphere would be a lot warmer if nothing had been done, but it would have been a lot cooler if more had been done.The summit in Egypt from 6-8 November 2022 takes place in a year during which the world suffered unprecedented back-to-back climate-induced disasters like record-breaking heat waves, forest fires, storms, glacial retreat and floods. Scientists say the intensity and frequency of these calamities are happening decades earlier than forecast. If COP27 just meets earlier commitments from governments to pay $100 billion a year for mitigation and adaptation it will have served its purpose. But given the current global economic crisis due to the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, that does not look likely. Which is why climate justice demands by some countries, including Nepal, for ‘loss and damage’ is probably dead in the water. The argument is that the impact of the climate crisis is causing so much loss of life, livelihoods and property that just adapting to the change is no longer adequate.Given the severity of the floods in Pakistan this year, the prolonged heat waves in India and China, landslides and floods in Nepal, it is clear that developing countries are unjustly and disproportionately paying for a crisis not of their making.  Even so, we in Nepal have to recognise that the climate crisis is just tip of the pyramid of problems that pre-date climate change. Structural factors like state neglect, governance failure, corruption and exclusion was already putting much of the population at risk. Politicians in Kathmandu cannot blame the chronic food insecurity in western Nepal on climate change. They have done little in the past half-century to provide hill-irrigation to lessen farmers’ dependence on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. They cannot blame the migration every year of 80,000 Nepalis for overseas employment on the climate crisis. For centuries, Nepalis have been migrating because of the lack of jobs, opportunities, poverty, indebtedness and discrimination. A jumbo Nepali delegation is flying to Sharm El-Sheikh with a new Forest Minister who knows next to nothing about climate, is intent on logging 4,000 hectares of forest to build a new international airport, and allow cronies to build safari hotels inside national parks.He will be demanding ‘loss and damage’ compensation for the Melamchi water project that suffered costly damage in last year’s flood. But the real loss in the Melamchi was caused by chronic corruption, mismanagement, political interference and incompetence spanning decades.  The destruction of farms and homes by landslides due to rampant, corruption-driven road building by rogue politicians is far more serious than the damage caused by global climate change.  No doubt, extreme weather events will be more frequent right across the Himalaya in coming years. There may be catastrophic co-seismic multiple glacial lake outburst floods. We have to prepare for those calamities by clever fund-raising, not go COP-hopping with a begging bowl.At COP26 in Glasgow last year, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba pledged three things: increase forest cover to 45% by 2030, ensure climate resilience for all vulnerable Nepalis by 2030, and start reducing emissions to become carbon negative after 2045. Nepal already has 44.74% forest cover, we just have to make sure we do not destroy what is left. The second commitment is so unmeasurable as to make it meaningless. And we do not see any new far-reaching tax incentives for battery vehicles or household electricity use to make use of surplus hydropower to reach net-zero in the next two decades.Nepal’s ‘enhanced’ Nationally Determined Contribution presented to the UN aimed to hit net-zero by 2050. At the rate petroleum imports are rising, the country will be bankrupt by then. A dramatic switch to renewables for transport and household energy could allow Nepal to be carbon neutral even by 2030. But for that we need competence, commitment and political will.   Nepal has to reduce fossil fuel use not so much to save the planet, but to slash our petroleum import bill and improve urban air quality. Climate change gets a tangential mention in the manifestos of the major political parties preparing for this month’s polls. It does not even merit an empty election slogan. Nepal has to stop playing victim all the time and invoke climate change for ‘loss and damage’ compensation. We should instead put our minds (and money) to implementing domestic low-carbon policies.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/climate-change-only-one-factor-in-pakistan-flood/"> Climate change only one factor in Pakistan flood</a>, Nepali Times

Which loss and damage?

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057359c7e80680e0ce148jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1794" height="952"/>This November, world leaders gather in Sharm el Sheikh in Egypt to negotiate, monitor progress on targets, and implement global climate action.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 27th session of the Conference of Parties, called COP27 for short, will have to find ways to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions even as the global economy is hit by the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Across the world, unprecedented climate disasters such as record-breaking heat waves, forest fires and floods are occurring much before predicted by scientists in previous climate summits.The problem now is to acknowledge that the pace of climate change is accelerating, and how to get governments to agree on mitigating the causes and implementing of adapting measures before it takes on even more catastrophic proportions.Hence, the COP27 Egyptian presidency has said its priority is to operationalise climate commitments from previous summits for this year’s annual conference.The UAE, scheduled to host the next summit in Dubai in 2023, has established a close partnership with Egypt to ensure the success of the UNFCCC process.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/">Nepal’s greenwashing in Glasgow</a>, Rasmi BaskotaThe 2020’s has been called ‘the decade of action’, and the next few years will be critical in determining the magnitude of the consequences of the climate crisis.The most recent scientific report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WGIII) indicates that global GHG emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5°C. At the previous climate summit in Glasgow last November, it was agreed that countries need to update their nationally determined commitments on reducing emissions by September 23 before COP27 to ensure emission targets are in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement.While the national commitments have clear metrics for emission targets, measurements of the need for adaptation are yet to be agreed upon. COP27 will build on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GlaSS) established in Glasgow to enhance planning and implementation of adaptation measures. At COP27, countries are expected to agree on adaptation targets, which will be a major mandated outcome for COP28.Specifying progress on adaptation goals is also essential as it provides a measure of progress every five years after the Paris Agreement. This first stock take consists of ongoing information collection and preparation, technical assessments, and consideration of outputs, or presentation and discussion of the findings and their implications, in COP28.Read also:  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/">COPOUT at COP26</a>, Sonia AwaleWhile finance is the key to implementing many of these strategies, developed countries have previously failed to deliver the promised annual $100 billion goal by 2020. However, to maintain trust in this international process, COP26 President Alok Sharma previously requested Canada and Germany to take a lead on the Climate Finance Delivery Plan, which will guide developed countries to reach the annual $100 billion goal by 2023.In late October, Canada and Germany published a progress report on the plan, detailing four key collective actions: enhance transparency for doubling adaptation finance, strengthen climate finance accessibility, highlight contributions from multilateral development banks, and explore mobilisation of private finance.However, the Global South calls for progress on new climate finance goals beyond the $100 billion goal, and also wants rich countries to address ‘loss and damage’ from climate-induced disasters. Starting this year, discussions are already underway for a collective quantified goal on climate finance.In response to climate finance, UAE recognises the need to build capacity for mitigation of climate change. As the president of COP28, the UAE is investing $50 billion towards renewable energy in 40 countries and says it will invest another $50 billion over the next decade. Strengthening renewable energy capacity is crucial because currently most countries are still dependent on fossil fuel imports.The most recent IPCC report indicates that the lifetime GHG projections of existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure already exceed the 1.5°C goal and would reach 2°C warming. This means that to stay at least within the 2°C goal, there should be no more new fossil fuel investments and that they should phased out to tackle the climate crisis.The UAE is still producing oil and exporting them to supply other countries’ energy demands. The recent energy crisis signals countries to depend less on fossil fuels by shifting their dependence to renewable energy sources. However, before the shift happens, the UAE will continue to export oil to other countries because many countries’ economies are still dependent on oil. This again shows that combatting the climate crisis requires ambition and collaboration between all countries to shift away from the dependency on fossil fuels.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oil-rich-gulf-turns-to-renewable-energy/">Oil-rich Gulf turns to renewable energy</a>, Kunda  DixitThe UAE is the fifth largest crude oil exporting country after Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada and Iraq. To support the international process, the UAE submitted its updated second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in September. The most notable update is its commitment to reducing 31% of GHG emission by 2030, compared to their previous pledge of reducing 23.5% by 2030.This target will bring the UAE closer to its goal of reaching net zero by 2050. This on its own will not meet the global 43% reduction target of 1.5°C as indicated in the latest IPCC report. Nonetheless, this update is significant and a breakthrough in the region, which can inspire more countries to commit on more ambitious target. To raise ambition even further, the UAE plans to releasing its third version NDC in 2023.There are other critical issues also on the table in Sharm el Sheikh, including Article 6, the establishment of a carbon trading system, and loss and damage. While loss and damage has historically been assumed as part of adaptation, ongoing disasters have proven that there is a need to address the consequences of climate change separately.In past climate negotiations, the Global North and Global South have been deeply polarised. With the ongoing global economic crisis, it is unlikely that there will be a positive outcome for this topic. Nevertheless, it gives a lot of room for progress in the climate summits this year in Egypt and next year in UAE on issues like establishing a financial mechanism.As the climate crisis accelerates global impacts, time is running out. Countries thus need to scale up their climate ambition to move the negotiation forward on addressing the climate crisis.This includes abiding by agreements in past COPs and making progress between each COP to support the international process. Different topics of discussion are at different stages of progress and this progress takes place separately in meetings throughout the year.With various ongoing discussions taking place, leadership to support this overall process of addressing climate change is essential. The UAE is supporting the Sharm el Sheikh summit to prepare for next year’s COP28 and to play a leading role in averting the climate crisis.Read more:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/good-cop-bad-cop/">Good COP, Bad COP</a>

Make or break climate summits

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111414114/63723d429c7e80680e0c9665jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="624" height="231"/><figcaption>Photo: UNITED NATIONS</figcaption></figure>Next month, the latest annual United Nations climate extravaganza, COP27, will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Last year it was in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glasgow</a>. Next year it will be held in (drum roll please) … Dubai!These big climate events have been around a long time. Since 1995, there has been a climate COP (short for “Conference of the Parties”) every year except 2020, when it was postponed due to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covid pandemic</a>. Over the years, the COP roadshow has traveled far and wide. From Berlin to Buenos Aires, Kyoto to Cancun, and Bali to Marrakesh, the COPs have criss-crossed the globe with the aim of finessing new agreements to see off the specter of climate change.These annual summits generate a lot of interest. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/good-cop-bad-cop/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">most recent in Glasgow</a> attracted tens of thousands of participants. World leaders and celebrities often jet in and join the throng, while the global media reports every move in the corridors of power and concerned citizens protest outside. And yet the COPs are only the tip of the proverbial iceberg when it comes to UN-sponsored climate meetings.If you add the several preparatory meetings in the lead-up to the COPs, plus a host of workshops and other events by various expert technical groups, you’re easily looking at several dozen gatherings every year.Each event is supposed to help us move the needle on climate change, keeping our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">warming world within the 1.5</a>°<a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Celsius threshold</a> beyond which we face potentially catastrophic consequences. But what, exactly, do all of these many meetings accomplish? Are they really worth all this time and effort?There are plenty of arguments against letting the climate circus continue its endless circuit. For a start, science tells us that in spite of all the many meetings held, we’re still on a dangerous path. Groups like <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">Carbon Action Tracker</a> estimate that we’re currently on track for somewhere between 1.8-2.7°C, with the lower number representing their most optimistic—and least likely—scenario. This is clearly well above where we need to be.Another common complaint is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UN climate COPs</a> are mostly just talking shops; in Greta Thunberg’s words, too much “blah, blah, blah” and not enough action. For all the millions, even billions, of words uttered at these events, they can often end in acrimony with little of substance agreed. Surely, the money used to hold these summits could be better spent on something else?Even when agreement is reached, say the critics, there is no guarantee governments and other stakeholders will keep their pledges. History is littered with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">broken promises and diplomatic treaties</a> that aren’t worth the paper they’re written on.These arguments are all credible and we don’t disagree with any of them. But here’s the thing. For all their weaknesses and flaws, these summits actually matter a lot.First, the United Nations climate process has definitely moved the needle when it comes to our response to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a>. When the UN climate treaty was first signed in 1992, it triggered a wave of national laws, policies, and regulations that have rippled out across every country on earth. This process has started to shift almost every aspect of our modern economic system away from 200 years of reliance on fossil fuels.Take our global energy systems, for instance. From being a niche market in the 1990s that could not compete on cost with coal, oil and gas-generated electricity, in 2020 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-roof-is-the-limit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">solar power</a> became the cheapest source of electricity in history. The technology behind both solar and wind have moved on in leaps and bounds since the 1990s, thanks in large part to the flow-on effects of international lawmaking.The much-maligned Kyoto Protocol of 1997, now largely superseded by the 2015 Paris Agreement, brought the private sector firmly into the equation, launching carbon markets and spurring private sector investment that has begun to reshape our global economy away from its reliance on fossil fuels.From <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electric vehicles</a> to power generation to building design, the number of changes catalyzed by our international work on climate change are too many too list. Probably the best metric for judging the UN climate summits, however, is their impact on long-term global warming.In recent years, projections for the expected long-term warming have fallen from as much as 4-6°C before the Paris Agreement was inked, to around 1.8-2.7°C now, assuming we implement pledges made at UN summits. And while anything above 1.5°C is still very, very bad and the need for more action remains urgent, it’s not as unimaginably catastrophic as those higher numbers would be.That’s not to say the UN climate process can’t be improved. Some people would like to see them shrunk back to their size in the early days, when just a couple of thousand people—key negotiators and a smaller number of other stakeholders—met in person. This, they say, would render it more manageable, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-carbon-footprint-of-nepals-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reduce the carbon footprint</a>, and make it less of a “circus.”There are arguments on both sides here. While on the one hand it is true that arguably only a few hundred diplomats could handle the haggling over the official UN documents under negotiation, it is worth noting the impact those other participants can have.For a start, many new pledges and promises are emerging on the sidelines of the official negotiations; “coalitions of the willing” wishing to make progress in specific sectors like, say, green investment, electric vehicles, reducing methane emissions or halting deforestation.These alliances of governments, private companies and other stakeholders are able to make advances in specific sectors where the official UN negotiations—which require consensus among more than 190 governments—cannot. The groups involved in such coalitions choose to network, negotiate, and announce their plans during the COPs because of the public interest in these events.Attend just one of these COPs and you will soon notice how many connections are made, partnerships are formed, and ideas generated, by participants not involved in the formal UN business of treatymaking. The benefits of these meetings and collaborations are hard to measure, but certainly considerable.UN negotiations can often feel glacial. With the scientific community—and the daily news of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather events</a> around the world—reminding us of the need for urgency, it can feel like the discussions are going far too slowly. Obviously, there is much more to be done in a short space of time given that we are still hurtling towards some pretty frightening outcomes without more progress. Still, the UN process has made a difference and started to move the needle, even if is not yet happening fast enough.And what are the alternatives? No single country or private entity stands a chance of dealing with this threat alone. Neither Amazon nor Google can conjure up an online answer to this type of problem. The US or China can’t “go it alone” and no coalition of governments has been able to deliver what’s needed. It is clear, therefore, that a multilateral, global process involving all governments and stakeholders presents our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">only chance of containing such a global threat</a>.Winston Churchill once described democracy as the worst form of government except for all the others. The same applies to multilateralism and climate change. It is flawed, frustrating and at times agonizingly slow. But it is still without doubt our last best hope of success.So what needs to happen at COP27 in Egypt? Many are describing it as the “implementation COP” where we begin to turn pledges and well-laid plans into action. There will be pressure for countries to come with bolder measures to reduce their national emissions and for wealthier nations to bring more money to the table when it comes to supporting the developing world. In particular, more support for adaptation, as well as financial help dealing with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">loss and damage</a> already wrought by climate change, will need to be addressed promptly.We will also need to see inspired leadership. In our new book, Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy, we argue that dedicated and committed individuals can make a significant difference at these events. Examples from the recent past, such as the dedication of a handful of scientists and diplomats who helped create the Montreal Protocol and save the ozone layer, show that we can all play our part in turning the tide.More recently Christiana Figueres, the former head of the UN climate office and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, is an example of the type of leadership that will be required at the next COP. Figueres is an advocate of “stubborn optimism” and the need to blend urgency with action. We agree. Persistence, combined with a belief that there is still time to make a difference, should be our guiding light during this critical time.Currently, the UK as hosts of COP26 still hold the climate presidency, which they will hand over officially to Egypt at the start of COP27 in November. Glasgow exceeded many insiders’ expectations, with Alok Sharma delivering a poised performance in spite of the UK’s recent domestic political turmoil. How will the incoming Egyptian presidency step up to the challenge? And how too will the <a href="http://blog.felixdodds.net/2022/08/new-head-of-unfccc-grenadas-simon-stiell.html">new UN climate chief</a>, Simon Stiell, approach this major meeting?As we look to COP27 and beyond, we wonder who the heroes of tomorrow might be? With time running out, we need environmental champions now more than ever.Felix Dodds and Chris Spence have participated in UN environmental negotiations since the 1990s. They co-edited <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Heroes-of-Environmental-Diplomacy-Profiles-in-Courage/Dodds-Spence/p/book/9781032065441">Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy: Profiles in Courage</a> (Routledge, 2022).

Are Climate Summits a Waste of Time?

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/6372388d9c7e80680e0c7390jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1750" height="1148"/>In the last week of August, a monster monsoon caused floods across Pakistan, impacting over 33 million people, killing at least 1,300, and destroying crops.There are lessons here for the rest of the Himalaya, including Nepal which suffered similar floods last year. While monsoon cloudbursts and glacial retreat caused by the climate crisis were factors in both disasters, urbanisation of flood plains and population growth magnified the human impact.In August, Pakistan recorded national average rainfall 243% above normal, with Balochistan and Sindh receiving 600-700% more rain than usual.“Unusually heavy rains fell over the Hindu Kush where heavy monsoon rains usually do not reach,” says Sher Muhammed, a glaciologist at the Kathmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).Earlier, Pakistan experienced a prolonged heatwave which likely accelerated glacial melt and increased river flows. The Himalaya-Hindu Kush is the largest repository of glacial ice outside the polar regions.The floods struck prior to the harvesting stage of key crops, including cotton, rice and sugar cane. In Sindh, flood waters inundated over 2.5 million hectares of farms, resulting in losses estimated at $1.3 billion. Pakistan now faces an unprecedented food security crisis.The poor and the already marginalised -- whose livelihoods depend on agriculture, forestry, and fishing – were disproportionately impacted by the floods. It is necessary to ask: What does the world owe Pakistan as these super floods expose numerous gaps such as food insecurity, inflation, and water-borne illness?While the contribution of Himalayan countries to global greenhouse gas emissions is miniscule, they bear the worst effects of climate change. Pakistan and Nepal rank in the top ten most vulnerable countries in the Global Climate Risk Index.Pakistan’s flood is therefore another wakeup call to meet global government commitments to climate justice funds. This is likely to be a significant point of discussion at the upcoming COP27 in November in Egypt.Pakistan’s emergency was so serious that UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited the flood-hit areas this week. “Pakistan needs urgent financial support. This is not a question of solidarity or generosity. It is a question of justice.”Although the Pakistan government initially said one-third of the country was underwater, independent analysts scaled it down to 10%. Whatever the extent, Pakistan's leading climate scientist, Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, points to a range of human-induced factors.“We cannot place our finger on just climate change as the main reason for an increase in devastation from floods,” Sheikh told The Third Pole. “Climate change is a threat multiplier, but most of the losses are often actually due to poor governance and a weak economy.”Scientists also say last year's floods across Central Nepal were triggered by 300mm of rain that fell overnight. The downpour also  brought down moraines loosened by melting permafrost in the mountains upstream. The $700 million Melamchi project, a dozen hydropower plants, bridges and roads were damaged by the debris flows.It is convenient for governments to put all the blame on climate change for water-induced disasters. But the human and economic toll of floods are magnified by drainage obstruction, poorly planned infrastructure, and river extraction.Future flood risk in Pakistan, Nepal and India can be reduced if there is better  preparedness and proper planning before next year's monsoon. Otherwise what happened in Pakistan is sure to repeat itself many times in the Himalaya as the impact of the climate emergency starts being felt even more acutely.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/climate-change-only-one-factor-in-pakistan-flood/">Climate change only one factor in Pakistan flood</a>, Nepali TimesNicole McCloskey is a Fulbright grantee with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

More monstrous monsoons

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372346a9c7e80680e0c4930jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="675"/><figcaption>Lubra Village is under constant threat from flash floods. All Photo: Ronan Wallace</figcaption></figure>As weather patterns change across the world, many communities impacted by the climate crisis go unnoticed, or are disregarded. Himalayan villages are suffering an increase in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparing-for-the-big-flood,3190" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flash floods</a> and droughts.One such community is Lubra village in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mixed-blessings-in-mustang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lower Mustang</a>, one of the few villages in Nepal fully practicing the Bön Po faith.Lubra has over 800 years of cultural and ancestral significance. Established in the 12th century by Lama Yangton Tashi Gyaltsen, who is said to have crossed over from Tibet, made the area suitable for settlement by subduing the land’s unruly local spirits, and ensured the survival of the Bön belief.Situated at 2,950m, the village today is home to over 100 inhabitants, and has a school with 90 children. Farming their own land, they also carry community responsibilities involving one member from each family.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372346c9c7e80680e0c4931jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="763"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>There are a handful of mud buildings, guesthouses and fields at the edge of Lubra River. A school, two monasteries, several chörten, a children’s hostel and water tanks span the rest of the land. Although small, Lubra is an important cultural component of Mustang.Every year during the monsoon, the entire valley faces flash floods as the Lubra River’s trickle expands into a 150m wide debris flow of sediment and boulders, spanning the riverbed to meet the Kali Gandaki downstream.https://youtu.be/9rM1y4n1hxUDigital model showing the current state Lubra Village in relation to LubraRiver. Video: RONAN WALLACEThis turns the valley into a concrete mixer, as the sediment-stone-water turns into a viscous sludge. Higher up the valley, the water may not always be able to find passage through the sludge, causing it to be dammed.  Eventually, the blockage gives way, bringing down a rush of aqueous concrete. These <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood bursts</a> repeat without fail over two months and swallow any obstacles in its path.Increasingly frequent floods are directly attributed to climate change. Rising temperatures have been altering the water cycle across the Himalaya, including Mustang.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Human face of a Himalayan climate crisis</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372346f9c7e80680e0c4932jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="520"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The region is in the Himalayan <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19611#.WrOj2h1ubIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rain shadow,</a> and monsoon clouds are blocked by the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri massifs. However, rain patterns are changing, and what used to be light, seasonal rain has turned to destructive downpours.Glacial runoff has also been increasing over the last five years. Rangelands upriver from Lubra are deteriorating, loose soil is easily carried downriver in sudden floods.For Lubra, this is disastrous. Living on the edge of the riverbank, families are sitting ducks. When the monsoon season concludes, new sediment sets and hardens like concrete, increasing the height of the riverbed, making the village more susceptible to damage. Over the last decade alone, the riverbed has risen by an astounding 12m in elevation, and buried terrace farms.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234729c7e80680e0c4933jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="713"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234759c7e80680e0c4934jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234789c7e80680e0c4935jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="720"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the 2021 monsoon, homes were damaged, leaving two families to take shelter in a guesthouse for three months. Jzikmey, 25, saw the flood rush into the lower most room of his home. Having lived his entire life in Lubra, he felt the loss, but said: “It is what it is. If the next monsoon is like the last one, the rest of my house will be gone.”Because the majority of homes are stacked upon each other on the slope, the main village stands as one building, each home depending on the other for structural and foundational strength.Damage to one home threatens the structural integrity of the entire village, putting families in harm's way. The next two monsoon seasons could leave several families without homes. “In next ten years, the entire village could be gone,” Jzikmey says.For over 20 years, families have tried to adapt by building rock walls using gabion boxes and digging trenches to redirect flow. However, these walls are not as effective as they need to be, since floods flow over the barriers.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372347a9c7e80680e0c4936jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1138" height="796"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The community has discussed relocating the entire village to a safer place. However, relocation is no easy task. There are complexities in both civil engineering and the community's opinion.Moving the entire village means considering every aspect of Lubra’s way of life, and asking if it will thrive in the new location. Lubra is having to rethink hundreds of years of cultural and ancestral heritage. Much planning needs to happen, but time is running out.Additionally, families face fears of land security, as allotted plots for personal use might not be guaranteed.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/6372347e9c7e80680e0c4937jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="678"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234809c7e80680e0c4938jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="677"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>As the riverbed continues to rise, the need for an immediate, community-conscious solution is evident and imperative. Floods threaten not only the livelihoods of the community, but the security of Bön traditions as well.Decades of culturally significant land is being wiped out, and many families fear that their ancestral heritage will go with it.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate-smarter Himalayan infrastructure</a>, Sonia Awale

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