<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f349c7e80680e04fcf6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="998"/><figcaption>The melting Khumbu Glacier below Mount Everest. The Khumbu glacier has shrunk and receded dramatically in the last 30 years. Photo: ALEX TREADWAY/ICIMOD</figcaption></figure>More than 260 scientists from 60 countries are in Kathmandu this week to work on their next report on the global climate emergency just as a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed monsoon</a> unleashed storms that killed 60 people in Nepal and affected millions downstream in India.The experts are attending the Second Lead Author Meeting of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II to put together its 6th Assessment Report due out in 2022 looking at impact, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/act-globally-think-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Act globally, think locally</a>, Editorial“IPCC chose to organise the meeting in Kathmandu exactly because of the growing recognition of the impact of climate change on the weather in the Himalaya. There is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more frequent heat waves</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">freak rain as we have had in Kathmandu</a> this monsoon,” said Philippus Wester, climate scientist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which is hosting the meeting with Nepal’s Ministry of Forests and Environment.Indeed, the scientists got a ringside seat for climate-induced extreme weather this week as parts of Nepal got a month’s worth of rainfall in a 24-hour period, after the monsoon finally arrived three weeks late. Many delegates had to be rerouted because Kathmandu airport was closed for the whole day on 12 July. (See box, below)“Although it is difficult to attribute a single weather event to climate change, there is now growing evidence that there is a correlation,” explained Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-chair of Working Group II. “We know that many natural systems have already reached their limits in coping with these unprecedented transformations.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f379c7e80680e04fcf7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Besides the monsoon, an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIMOD assessment</a> of the impact of global warming on the Himalaya showed that the mountains are melting 0.3-0.7oC faster than the global average. Even in the best-case scenario, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Himalaya</a> will lose more than one-third of its glaciers this century, said the report. At the current rate of carbon emissions, two-thirds of Himalayan ice <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will be gone by 2100</a>, with devastating consequences for the more than 1.6 billion people living downstream.Scientists said predictions in a previous IPCC report presented at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paris climate conference in 2015 underestimated</a> the rise in average global temperatures and its impact on weather patterns, sea level rise and melting of the polar ice caps. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another meeting in Poland</a> last December predicted more heat waves, flash floods, storms and starvation – some of which the world witnessed this summer.“The timing of the Kathmandu meeting is significant because it is happening during this monsoon, when unprecedented rain has triggered floods and landslides across the country,” said climate expert Manjeet Dhakal. “This supports scientific findings of the anticipated effects of climate change and is a strong reminder that delayed action will have higher costs.”Scientists at the Kathmandu meeting will be assessing the latest evidence about the extent and impact of the climate emergency for a report to be released in 2022. However, some scientists are afraid their predictions today will be overtaken by events such as Europe recording its hottest ever June, Japan’s heat wave last year that saw historically high temperatures, and Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and southern India experiencing unprecedented droughts this year.“We are in Kathmandu which has been tested over the last week by an unusual monsoon, so you need people who run and design this city to have access to information on major global transitions like how urban infrastructure can cope with future climate events,” said Debra Roberts, co-chair of the IPCC’s working group.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f3b9c7e80680e04fcf8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Experts say that the challenge now is to convert evidence of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis into policy and action</a> globally and by individual governments. Since the IPCC is made up of the world’s 195 governments, it forms a bridge between the latest level of scientific knowledge and policymakers. However, even as evidence about the seriousness of the crisis grows, some countries are in denial, while others wait for funds to adapt to climate impact.Feasible technical solutions to reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere include switching to renewable energy and enlarging carbon sinks through forest cover are available, but these are stuck at the policy or implementation level. Even so, there are many examples of communities in Nepal that offer solutions to resource conservation that also contribute to reducing the impact of the climate emergency.“Nepal offers many inspiring examples of what a far-sighted community can achieve in spite of limited resources,” said Bronwyn Hayward of the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, one of the IPCC contributors attending the Kathmandu conference who visitedSikles and Bandipur where local communities are using forestry and eco-tourism to build resilience to cope with the changing climate.“These achievements are now threatened by what is happening globally. The rest of the world has the responsibility to step up and do their bit,” added Hayward.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f3e9c7e80680e04fcf9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Himalaya</a> has become a touchstone for the impact of the climate emergency: what is happening in the mountains is an indication of what is happening in rest of the world. The Oceans and Cryosphere Special Report that IPCC is publishing in September will have a full chapter on mountain ecosystems, and a crosscutting paper in the IPCC’s sixth assessment will further signify the impacts of climate change in the Himalayas.Said Wester: “We can only present our research findings with a sense of urgency in such a way that it is not alarmist but honest with the knowledge that we have. It is up to the governments and societies to decide what to do with it but we are already starting to see a shift.”“These mountains are a climate change hotspot, and having the IPCC meeting in Nepal means the world is paying attention to the Himalaya,” added David Molden, Director General of ICIMOD.<h2>Carbon footprint of climate conferences</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131144/636a4f419c7e80680e04fcfajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3653" height="1365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The nearly 300 climate scientists from 60 countries attending the big IPCC conference in Kathmandu this week are aware that each of them will have emitted between 6-10 tons of carbon flying to and from Nepal. Civil aviation contributes more than 3% of the carbon emissions that is warming the atmosphere.Ironically, this year’s freak monsoon was partly caused by climate change, and forced many of the flights that scientists were taking to Kathmandu this week to hold for hours in the air, or to be diverted, further increasing their carbon footprint.Many in social media are asking if flying 300 scientists across the planet to write voluminous reports that governments ignore is worth the carbon it generates. Why can’t they just Skype?“As individuals we try to reduce travel as much as we can, using Skype, but given the complicated nature of the issue and how fast it is changing, some things we just have to do face-to-face,” explains Bronwyn Hayward, who flew in from New Zealand, but combined her trip with a fact-finding visit to community forestry user groups in Kaski and Bandipur.“<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/to-make-up-for-monsoon-slack-nepal-opts-for-spiritual-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism</a> is also essential for the economies of Nepal and New Zealand, but travellers come from all over the world burning all that carbon,” she added.Indeed, some scientists said they regularly buy <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-playing-victim-to-proactive-leadership-on-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon offsets</a> for flights to their conferences, while others said decisions taken at these conferences are too important to be done on Facebook Messenger.As the host government, Nepal has tried to ensure that the weeklong meeting at the Yak &amp; Yeti Hotel in Kathmandu will be as green as possible. All conference meals are vegetarian, and the use of plastic is actively discouraged.

Sonia Awale

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Weather warning for climate meeting

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921c09c7e80680e03a0edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3024" height="2569"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>President Donald Trump may have announced that he intends to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, but the United States is still in.US cities, states and big companies like the ones here in Silicon Valley have pledged to do even more to keep to decarbonisation targets agreed to in Paris in 2015, and have come together in an informal coalition calling itself ‘We Are Still In’.As the United States loses its leadership role in international negotiations, the country’s agenda is being carried by this unofficial group in events like the <a href="http://globalclimateactionsummit.org/#t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Climate Action Summit</a> that is bringing 3,000 delegates from around the world to San Francisco this weekend.“The Paris climate accord is alive and well in the US because of this strong alliance of American voices from businesses, cities, states and universities committed to meeting greenhouse gas emission targets,” says <a href="https://medium.com/@adam.stern/bay-area-can-lead-on-food-and-climate-change-d4583b74ad07" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adam Stern</a>, executive director of <a href="https://www.acterra.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Acterra</a> which works on local solutions to global warming in the Bay Area.The Global Climate Action Summit is being co-hosted by California Governor Jerry Brown and New York mayor Michael Bloomberg. Also attending are former US Vice President Al Gore, Hollywood actors Alec Baldwin, <a href="https://www.bleedingcool.com/2017/11/04/harrison-ford-climate-change-speech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harrison Ford</a> and <a href="http://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-yale-climate-change-conference-20170919-story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Leonardo DeCaprio</a> as well as <a href="https://globalclimateactionsummit.org/delegates-attending-gcas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate leaders, climate scientists and researchers</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921c49c7e80680e03a0eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="643">This is ‘track two’ on climate action and involves non-state and sub-national actors from all over the world. In the run-up to the Summit, Governor Brown on Monday signed an executive order to make California carbon neutral by 2045. He also signed bills last week to block new oil drilling off the shores of his state in defiance of the Trump government’s move to open California waters to oil drilling.Brown set up the <a href="https://www.under2coalition.org/about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Under2 Coalition</a> that has got 200 local and national governments around the world committed to keeping global temperature rise to under 2°C by 2050 as agreed to in Paris.Besides the conference panels, the Summit will have <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/09/08/thousands-to-march-against-climate-change-in-san-francisco-ahead-of-world-summit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">demonstrations</a>, side events including workshops on <a href="https://www.acterra.org/climate-friendly-cuisine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate-friendly food industry</a>, exhibits and tours. The  <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/news/historic-greenpeace-ship-arctic-sunrise-arrives-san-francisco-advance-global-climate-action-summit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greenpeaceship Arctic Sunrise</a> has docked at the port here to draw attention to climate action.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921c69c7e80680e03a0efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="964" height="546"><figcaption>Demonstrators urging action on climate change in San Francisco on Sunday in defiance of the Trump Administration's roll back from the Paris Climate Accord. Photo: EMILY JOVAIS / EAST BAY NEWS</figcaption></figure>It is ironic that the Summit is being held in a country that is led by a climate denier. However California has some of the most progressive legislation on emission controls. Brown has set in motion action that will reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels in the next 12 years.In fact, Brown, Bloomberg and other Americans are trying to bypass Trump to try to save the planet from the catastrophic effects of climate change during a year when the planet has faced unprecedented extreme weather events.Jerry Brown himself said in an interview this week to the <a href="http://mercurynews.ca.newsmemory.com/publink.php?shareid=06d558057" target="_blank" rel="noopener">San Jose Mercury News</a>: “The Republicans, the deniers in Washington, the president, they are really deviant to the international norm. It’s important that America maintain its climate actions through the states and the cities, private organisations and non-profits. We can’t just let Trump undermine and sabotage America’s part.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921d09c7e80680e03a0f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="602"><figcaption>The new Google headquarters that is 100% powered by solar panels on the roof. Google and other Silicon Valley companies are leading the shift to zero carbon policies. Photo: GOOGLE</figcaption></figure>Silicon Valley tech companies are also taking a lead in green business. The Tesla plant is located in Fremont is producing electric cars, including the latest Model 3. <a href="https://www.apple.com/environment/climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apple’s new futuristic headquarter building and its outlets  derive 100% of its power from solar panels</a> on the roof, half the electricity at Facebook’s open office in Palo Alto comes from renewable sources. Google last year said it was sourcing all its energy at its offices here and worldwide from solar and wind energy.Says Adam Stern of Acterra: “Despite President Trump’s efforts to withdraw the US from its climate commitments, the Summit will demonstrate an irrepressible momentum among businesses, cities and other sub-national governments, and civic leaders to fulfill the goals of the Paris climate accord.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921d39c7e80680e03a0f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="675" height="519">

Bypassing Trump on climate action

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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