In math, if only two out of three variables can be together, its permutation can have only three values. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) have teamed up three times since 2017, the last time just four months ago. The Maoists and the Nepali Congress (NC) also got hitched three times.&nbsp; But this is the first time in seven years that the third combination of a NC-UML coalition is being tired out. It was Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists who, despite being the leader of a much smaller party by a long margin, used his swing vote to take turns hitching up with Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) and K P Oli (UML). Now, Deuba and Oli have jilted Dahal.&nbsp; Together, the NC and UML have a majority in Parliament to form a new government, but Prime Minister Dahal is refusing to go, saying he will only do so after facing a confidence vote within a month. It is foregone conclusion that Oli will be prime minister for the fourth time, and (if he keeps his promise) hand over to Deuba who will head the government for the sixth time till the next elections in 2027. “The Prime Minister seems to have been taken aback by how suddenly these developments happened,” says political analyst Hari Sharma. “But seeking a confidence vote is a more dignified way for him to go.” Constitutional amendments need a two-thirds majority in both Houses. While the NC and UML have the numbers in the Lower House through support from smaller parties, it will not be possible to obtain a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly without support from the Maoist Center. Sharma adds, “These two parties have come together as a matter of convenience, not principle. A constitutional amendment is only a political cover to justify the alliance.” The NC and the UML say they want to scrap provisions in the 2015 Constitution that gave excluded groups a presence in the legislature through Proportional Representation, saying it led to frequent coalition changes and instability. They have also hinted at doing away with federalism and secularism.&nbsp; “One of the most important parts of the Constitution are inclusivity and proportional representation,” says Sharma. “To see it as a problem that needs a constitutional amendment will be regressive. It would have been more credible if the NC-UML alliance had gone for political or governance reform.” Oli and Deuba tried to give an ideological veneer of the need for constitutional amendment to their secretive midnight pact, but some say it was in essence a joint power grab to offset imminent investigations into scandals that both their top leaders are implicated in: the NC in the fake refugee scam, and the UML in a land grab of a state-owned tea estate in Jhapa.&nbsp; For now, the main priority of the NC-UML is power sharing. The NC is wresting the all-important Home Ministry from the RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane which has been investigating the fake refugee and tea estate scams. Lamichhane himself is being investigated for misappropriating funds from co-operatives. The UML is to get nine ministries, including Finance. Oli had been unhappy with what he called a “Maoist budget” saying there had been no consultation with coalition partners. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was the inability of Dahal and Oli to agree on the lucrative appointment of the head of the Securities Board of Nepal (Sebon).&nbsp; The two parties have also decided to divide up provincial governments with three each, except Madhes Province. There is a geopolitical dimension with China openly backing unity among Communist parties, while India and the West want to thwart a UML-Maoist government. On Wednesday, UML ministers resigned en masse, after the party had urged Prime Minister Dahal to clear the way for a new government. Lamichhane’s RSP has said that it will not be joining the new government, while the monarchist RPP and some smaller parties welcomed the NC-UML alliance.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1582" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="UML ministers resign NT"> <figcaption>UML ministers resigned en masse on Wednesday after the party withdrew its support of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Some experts say an NC-UML alliance of the two biggest mainstream parties will make the government more stable and fulfil the mandate of Nepali voters. Indeed, despite being the first and second largest parties, the NC and UML have been playing mostly supporting roles in alliances with the much smaller Maoist-Centre.&nbsp; Consecutive governments led by Deuba, Oli and Dahal have failed to stimulate the economy, curb inflation, create jobs, or commit to transitional justice. Corruption became endemic during their tenures. Lately, Deuba and Oli were increasingly spooked by Lamichhane’s corruption probes. Bechan Jha, who was arrested last week for involvement in the fake refugee scandal, reportedly had connections right to the top echelons of the NC. And UML leaders were getting anxious about investigations into the tea estate scam. Nepal’s cyberphere is bristling with speculation that investigations to both scandals will now be sidelined. Kathmandu’s populist mayor Balen Shah added fuel to the fire with a telling social media post of Deuba and Oli holding teacups.&nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">यो समय गिरिबन्धु चियाको हो । काले काले मिलेर खाऊ भाले । <a href="https://t.co/ayi73w61mI">pic.twitter.com/ayi73w61mI</a>&mdash; Balen Shah (@ShahBalen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShahBalen/status/1807975048130842936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div> Nepal’s mainstream leadership must be concerned about the rise of populist parties and the public outrage on social media about their greed and opportunism. They want to amend the Constitution so that smaller populist parties do not have a strong presence in Parliament through proportional representation. In the midst of all this, the RSP suspended General Secretary Mukul Dhakal for his scathing internal report critical of Lamichhane putting his political ambition above the interest of the party. The losers in the fast-paced political developments this week appear to be Dahal and the Maoists, Lamichhane and the RSP and Madhav Nepal of the Unified Socialists. However, in the public’s eye, all three mainstream parties are the same, and citizens do not have faith in the new NC-UML alliance improving their living conditions.

Shristi Karki

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Rapid fire governments in Nepal

At the stroke of the midnight hour, and with the stroke of a pen, Nepal’s government has changed for the third time in a year.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is out of a job after his coalition partner the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) joined hands with the Nepali Congress (NC) to form a new government.&nbsp;
The NC had previously ditched the UML to join up with the Maoists, and the UML had again defected to join the Maoist-led coalition earlier this year.
According to the deal that will be endorsed by both parties on Tuesday, K P Oli of the UML and Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC will take turns being prime minister for 18 months each till the next election in 2027.
This will be 73-year-old Oli’s fourth time as prime minister, while Deuba, 78, who first became prime minister 30 years ago, will head the government for the sixth time.
Although Oli and Deuba say they want to form a national consensus government, it is not clear if Dahal will agree to bring his Maoist party into the new coalition. The NC is the largest party in Parliament, while the UML is second strongest, and the Maoists are a distant third.
Prime Minister Dahal will now have to prove his majority in Parliament within a month, but he could also resign after which President Ram Chandra Poudel will officially ask the biggest two parties to form a government.
Oli will then become prime minister for the fourth time, although the third time he was prime minister in 2021, he was in office for just one week when the Supreme Court overturned his decision to dissolve Parliament.
NC and UML leaders have said a new national government is necessary because of the need for a majority in the House to pass amendments to the constitutions to possibly dilute provisions for proportional representation in the legislature, which they say has led to instability and frequent changes in government.
However, the UML, NC and to a lesser extent the Maoists appear to be worried about the rise of populist parties and leaders in the last elections cashing in on the popular disillusionment among Nepalis with the three established parties who have ruled Nepal continuously for nearly two decades.
But the two leaders seem not to have realised that it is precisely this kind of political promiscuity that has led to frequent reshuffling of coalitions between the three main parties.
The NC and UML could also be acting to preempt possible investigations into scandals that their leaderships have been implicated in. Top NC leaders have been named in the fake refugee scandal, and the UML has been tainted by allegations of huge land grab of a former government-owned tea estate in Jhapa district.
By being in government, both parties could sideline investigations into scams that their top leaders are allegedly involved in. As per details of the Deuba-Oli nocturnal deal leaked to the press, the NC will get 10 ministries including the powerful Home Ministry and the UML will have nine including the finance portfolio.&nbsp;
The fate of the fourth party in Parliament, the RSP, and its controversial Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane is also unclear at this stage. The RSP is in the present Dahal-led coalition and Lamichhane had bargained as a party with swing votes to insist on having the home minister’s post which he has used in the past year to deflect investigations into his citizenship and cooperatives scandals.
Dahal appears to have had wind of the Deuba-Oli rapprochement and had tried to convince the two leaders that they could join the coalition he led as prime minister. Till Monday, Dahal was trying to prevent a possible NC-UML alliance, giving speeches calling for a unity of left parties.
There could be a geopolitical angle to this, since the Chinese have openly said they favour Nepal’s Communist parties to unite. And because of this, India and the West have worked behind the scenes to prevent left-wing unity.
The UML-NC ‘coup’ would prevent the UML and the Maoists from being in the same government.
There is uncertainty about the abrupt recall of eight NC-appointed ambassadors last month by the UML-Maoist coalition. Now that the NC is back in power, will some of them be reinstated?
Another uncertainty surrounds the seven provincial governments which have risen and fallen in the past year, mostly in relation to which coalition is in power in Kathmandu. The NC-UML deal is also said to include a proportional distribution of provincial governments, even though that goes completely against the spirit of federalism and political devolution as enshrined in the Constitution.

Nepal government changes again

We are now on Season 3 Episode 1 of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/shadow-government-nepal,3838" target="_blank">Nepal’s promiscuous political </a>saga.&nbsp;
The Maoists and the UML have joined hands for the second time in a year to form a new leftist-led coalition. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre has replaced the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deuba-5-qh371fm4" target="_blank">NC </a>with the UML and the United Socialists.
Dahal may say about the NC having double crossed him, but this was all about ensuring that he remains Prime Minister for another year instead of having to rotate it with Deuba and Nepal before the next election in 2027. Now, he just has to hand over to Oli next year.
This is all déjà vu. Dahal and Oli had a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ on rotating premiership after the 2017 election, and the Maoists merged with the UML to form the NCP. But both ended up stabbing each other in the back, and Oli had to step down. Why should it be any different this time?
The more things change in Nepali politics, the more they remain the same. The same three men of the three main parties have been playing musical chairs for most of the 18 years after the end of the conflict.
The cartoon by Diwakar Chhetri (above) was used in Nepali Times in 2020 when K P Oli was being catapulted to Singha Darbar. For this edition, we just exchanged him for Dahal, added Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP and changed the guy playing marbles to Deuba.
On Wednesday, the new coalition included the Maoists, UML, RSP, CPN (US) with the JSP still undecided. But in Nepal’s cybersphere, there is little excitement that this will change anything and the new lineup has been met mostly with ridicule.
Even a new party like the RSP under Lamichhane is behaving like an old party because he is in a tearing hurry to get on the fast-track to Singha Darbar. He angled for and got the Home Minister’s portfolio, while Barsaman Pun of the Maoists is Finance Minister. The JSP's Upendra Yadav is said to have wanted the Foreign Ministry, but the portfolio went to Narayan Kaji Shrestha.
That this is all about getting to power and staying there could not have been clearer because everyone is angling for the powerful ministries with the biggest discretionary funds.
UML Chief Whip Padam Giri has been named Minister for Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affiars after serving just 40 days as Health Minister during the previous Maoist-UML coalition. Hit Bahadur Tamang of the Maoists is Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister. The RSP’s Dol Prasad Aryal returns to the Labour Ministry despite conflict of interest allegations during his last stint because of his alleged involvement in recruitment and remittance companies. &nbsp;
The Unified Socialists say they are getting two ministries, including Federal and Social Service. The RSP’s Sumana Shrestha is Education Minister and Biraj Bhakta Shrestha Youth and Sports.&nbsp;
Lamichhane’s insistence on the Home Ministry portfolio is said to stem from a desire to exculpate himself from multiple controversies about citizenship and his investment in a cooperative that cheated depositors.
Monday’s political earthquake in Kathmandu has sent aftershocks to all seven provincial governments. The provinces all have their own party arithmetics in their assemblies, yet they are unduly impacted by what happens to the federal government. This is not how devolution is supposed to work.
Under federalism, Nepali politics is even more centralised than before with province politicians beholden not just to their party in Kathmandu, but to the head honcho in each of them for instructions. Which is why NC ministers have resigned in Karnali, and the NC controlled provincial governments in Gandaki and Sudur Paschim have sacked Maoist ministers. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Unlike the previous coalition, the main parties in the current coalition at least have similar sounding names like Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), Communist Party of Nepal (United Socialists). This could be a formidable leftist front in the 2027 election.
All this must be music to the ears of the Chinese, who have made no secret of their wish that Nepal’s Communists parties should all merge. And if the Chinese want that, then automatically the US-India bloc is not going to be too pleased.
The Maoist-NC coalition was seen to be better suited to India, but while this week’s change would have been a surprise for New Delhi, it may not have been a shock, since it is quite comfortable also with Prime Minister Dahal.

Kunda Dixit

Catapulting to Singha Darbar

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238d49c7e80680e0c73aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>President Bidya Devi Bhandari failed to authenticate an amendment bill to Nepal’s Citizenship Act by deadline on Tuesday 20 September, rendering it null and void. The bill had passed back and forth between Parliament and President’s office, before its rejection by a ceremonial head of state. It is seen by most experts as an unconstitutional move, and retaliation for Parliament’s refusal to deliberate her 15-point request for review.It is also proof of the deep polarisation ahead of elections between President Bhandari, who is close to the opposition UML, and the government. Passage of the bill would have been popular with the Tarai vote bank for the 5-party governing coalition, while the UML will hope to cash in on the opposition to the bill among many voters in the mountains.Understandably, coalition members were unified in their denouncement of the President allowing the bill to lapse after Parliament was already dissolved ahead of elections.‘This unconstitutional move by the President is a gross insult to Nepal’s federal Parliament elected by the people,’ reads a statement co-signed by leaders of four parties in government. The fifth coalition partner, Rastriya Janamorcha, did not sign, with its chief Chitra Bahadur KC casting strong reservations.In an unprecedented move, the Maoist-appointed Vice-president Nanda Bahadur Pun also condemned President Bhandari’s failure to certify the amendment. Interestingly, Maoist leader Narayankaji Shrestha wanted to have it both ways, tweeting: ‘The president does not have the right to go against the Constitution, but we agree with a lot of the points she has raised about the bill.’Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rule-of-the-lawless/">Rule of the lawless</a>, EditorialThe amendment would have allowed hundreds of thousands of Nepalis, especially in the Tarai, to finally obtain citizenship papers. But many activists had said the bill’s restrictions on citizenship for children born to single mothers, and the process of obtaining naturalised citizenship were discriminatory towards women.Former Law Minister Nilambar Acharya said that the Citizenship Bill was too sensitive and nuanced for knee-jerk, one-sided reaction.“The fact is that the House of Representatives passed the amendment bill without deliberating the President’s 15-point request for clarification,” Acharya said. “And should a Parliament that is about to reach its term take decisions on issues of long-term national interest? The new Parliament should have been entrusted with that.”Indeed, the bill has already become an election issue. Student wings affiliated with coalition parties took to the streets in protest (pictured) burning effigies of the President, while unions affiliated with the UML rallied with placards that read ‘salute to the President who stands up for the nation and nationalism’.With citizenship becoming a battle for populist vote-gathering, the row has over-shadowed moves by the governing coalition which also went against constitutional values. The closed list of proportional representation (PR)  candidates presented Monday included the Prime Minister’s wife, Arzoo Deuba, former NC minister Bimalendra Nidhi and Maoist former speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara.The PR system is actually meant to ensure that communities on the socio-political fringes get represented in decision-making. But the candidates on the list have perpetuated the status quoist, transactional, and nepotistic nature of Nepali politics.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/affirmative-inaction/">Affirmative inaction</a>, Editorial

President’s precedent

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131120/6372327f9c7e80680e0c4899jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/>In January Nepal’s Election Commission recommended a date for the local elections for April, but the top political leadership of the governing coalition dilly-dallied, citing Omicron and cost to buy time.After severe criticism from civil society and the media, Prime Minister Deuba reluctantly agreed to hold local elections on 13 May as scheduled. Because of their electoral alliance, coalition parties fared well anyway.Fast forward to July, and the leaders of the Nepali Congress and Maoists were having cold feet again about facing the electorate in November’s federal and provincial polls. There was lots of hemming-and hawing to the Election Commission’s  recommended poll date of 18 November. Coalition leaders let off trial balloons saying they need more time to align candidates.But coalition leaders finally agreed at a meeting on Wednesday at Baluwatar to hold the election on 20 November."The ruling alliance has requested the government to announce election dates as soon as possible,” Maoist leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha told us.Deuba is said to have told coalition partners that election dates would be finalised during Thursday’s meeting of the Council of Ministers, or at the next Cabinet meeting.Nepal’s law stipulates that election dates must be announced 120 days prior to polls, and there is only 110 days to go.“That legal provision is not a joke,” warns former Chief Election Commissioner Nilkantha Uprety, “The 120-day timeframe is set in stone in order to allow parties to prepare properly for polls."The reason Deuba had been twiddling this thumbs is the same as it was back in January: he has yet to receive a green signal from Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other coalition partners.Despite finally agreeing to a date, just the vaccination about facing voters has exposed the governing coalition’s deep sense of insecurity about how Nepal’s public perceives them — especially after the reinstatement this week of tainted Finance Minister Janardan Sharma. The surprise <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">win of independent candidates in mayoral races</a> in May was also a jolt.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-ministers-return-shows-anything-goes/">Nepal minister’s return shows anything goes</a>, EditorialFinance Minister Sharma’s reinstatement is directly related to having someone with access to state coffers in charge during campaigning. The government is also on a spree of transferring police officials and civil servants. Deuba could be waiting to transfer police chiefs and CDOs in as many as 50 districts before announcing election dates.“Prime Minister Deuba called me yesterday to let me know that he would be announcing the election dates through the Council of Ministers,” Dahal told the press gathered at his residence on 27 July. “But I told him to wait for a few more days.”One of the mysteries of Nepal’s coalition politics is why Deuba is so beholden to Dahal when all indications are that the Nepali Congress (NC) may actually do quite well by itself in November.“It is clear that the Prime Minister could not announce the election dates — even if he wanted to — unless Pushpa Kamal Dahal signs off on the decision,” explains political analyst Puranjan Acharya. “Deuba might be prime minister, but for all intents and purposes it is Dahal who is sitting on his chair.”Dahal has been trying to assuage Deuba by saying that he is happy for the Maoists to be the second biggest party.The opposition UML has been trying to capitalise on these scandals, and also taking to the streets to stir up public support against corruption and inflation.Dahal, meanwhile, had other reasons to want to hold off polls: the amendment to the 2014 Act on Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation.  Conflict survivors, human rights lawyers, activists, and civic groups are outraged that it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/impunity-through-immunity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">grants immunity to perpetrators of war crimes</a>.Dahal wants to have the amendment passed while his party and NC are in charge, since Deuba was prime minister during the conflict years and is also answerable to atrocities committed by state security.Despite dilly-dallying, the coalition has been laying the groundwork for elections by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/are-women-not-nepali-enough/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">passing an amendment</a> to the 2006 Citizenship Act that still discriminates against women, but is meant to appease the Tarai vote bank.Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya says he is ready for any date in November, and expected the date to be fixed at Thursday’s Cabinet meeting.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pre-poll-calculations/">Pre-poll calculations</a>, Shristi Karki

Election calculation

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722e1b9c7e80680e0c24abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>REFLECTIONS: A villager walks past a flooded paddy field in Pokhara this week as the annual rice planting kicked off. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Four members from Madhav Kumar Nepal’s Unified Socialists including Urban Development Minister Ram Kumari Jhakri and Tourism Minister Prem Ale resigned from the Cabinet this week to make way for new ministers from their party.This followed their initial defiance of the party’s order recalling them, and hinted at problems in Nepal’s new party even after its local election wins in Pokhara and Hetauda. However, there has been dissatisfaction within the party regarding the 5-party alliance’s inability to fetch it better election results.Now, the cabinet reshuffle has revealed fissures within the party that broke away from the UML last year. Prime Minister Deuba of the Nepali Congress himself facilitated the split by overriding a constitutional provision with an ordinance so that UML dissidents could break away and join his coalition.Deuba’s first year in office has been rocky. He took over from the UML’s K P Oli after a long and bruising power struggle in the midst of the pandemic.In the past year, 90% of Nepal’s eligible population has been fully vaccinated against Covid, lowering the risk of another wave. Deuba is credited with holding local elections despite initial reluctance of his Maoist and Unified Socialist coalition partners.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-mixed-report-card/">Deuba’s mixed report card</a>, EditorialBut efforts to revive the economy have been stymied by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Making matters worse was Finance Minister Janardan Sharma seeking to oust the Rastra Bank governor, which had Deuba's blessings. Sharma is also knee-deep in a budgetary scandal.Despite all the trouble and the differences within alliance members after local elections in May, Deuba’s five-party alliance initially formed to oust KP Oli of the UML continues to hold.Even as the new ministers were sworn in, trouble was brewing in another coalition partner, the JSP with Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai blaming each other for poor showing in the May election. JSP and the breakaway LSP lost their Madhes Province strongholds, and Yadav has reached out to LSP chair Mahanta Thakur in hopes of a reunification.Now, Yadav has recalled JSP ministers without Bhattarai’s input for a cabinet reshuffle. This could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and splits the party twice in less than a year.Meanwhile, Bhattarai is working on a Plan B: meeting his erstwhile Maoist nemesis Pushpa Kamal Dahal to smoke the peace pipe. There is also talk of Oli and Dahal getting back together.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/">Nepal’s local polls a rehearsal for federal elections</a>, Shristi KarkiWith all this pre-election jostling, many in Deuba’s own Nepali Congress think they do not really need an electoral alliance heading to the November polls. But the wily Deuba probably wants to prevent having to once more face a formidable Communist alliance of Maoists, Socialists and the UML in November.In February, Deuba also got the American-aided MCC project Parliament ratification despite considerable opposition from the Communist alliance partners, complicated geopolitics and polarising public opinion.But the government has found itself in the middle of another geopolitical quagmire with the US-proposed State Partnership Program (SPP). This has become such a hot potato that Deuba had to cancel a visit to the US in July.The opposing UML, coalition partners, as well as members of Deuba’s own party want the prime minister to clarify his position on the SPP.American military training and exercises in Nepal is not new, but the SPP could be a minefield for Deuba ahead of elections, and at a time when Sino-US relations are at rock bottom.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-goes-on-in-nepals-elections/">What goes on in Nepal's elections</a>, Shekhar Parajuli

Planting seeds of democracy

<img width="800" height="441" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c219c7e80680e0bd479jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Three days after the Nepali Congress (NC) Central Working Committee announced it would leave it up to its local committees to decide on candidates for local elections in May, the Maoist Center (MC) Chair Pushpa Kamal brought out his trump card: if the Congress did not agree on common candidates he would forge an alliance with the opposition UML.
Like a jilted partner in a love triangle, the Maoist Centre is playing the NC and UML against each other ahead of the 13 May<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/periphery-within-the-periphery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> local elections</a>. In this, Chitwan is a microcosm of what is happening across Nepal — the Maoists are too weak to go it alone, some in the Congress do not want an electoral alliance with them, and despite its split the UML still has a strong party structure down to the grassroots.
Whenever he does not get what he wants from the NC, Dahal threatens to join hands with the UML’s K P Oli. It was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3gag3_L8da5PSoGfs004EO">Maoist-UML alliance</a> that swept the 2017 federal election, and the two parties formally united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which got dismantled in 2021 by the Supreme Court after a prolonged power struggle between Oli and Dahal.
With local polls only a little more than a month away, coalition partners Nepali Congress, Maoists, Unified Socialist and the Janata Samajwadi Party met on Tuesday to try to decide on common candidates. But all five coalition members want different things to ensure maximum benefit for their own party.
An electoral alliance means coalition partners agree to jointly select <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deputies-drive-development-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">candidates</a> for mayors, municipality chairs and other positions so they do not cancel each other out. The NC thinks it can win a majority on its own. Dahal has boasted he can do the same, but his party needs the Congress more than the Congress needs him. But the Congress is also wary of the UML’s strength.

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/think-nationally-vote-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Think nationally, vote locally</a>, Editorial
Senior Congress leaders like Shekhar Koirala, who challenged Sher Bahadur Deuba for party chairmanship during the recent NC <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/tis-the-season-of-conventions-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">general convention</a>, have urged the prime minister against an electoral alliance. He wants local Congress leaders to have full authority to decide whether they choose to run independently, coordinate with coalition partners or with parties outside the governing alliance. 
In 2017, NC lost the key constituency of Pokhara, where the party’s candidate Ramji Kunwar lost the election to the UML candidate despite having formed an electoral alliance with the Maoists. This is why the Congress hierarchy is averse to partnering with the Maoists.  
Similarly, the UML and the Maoists had formed separate alliances against the Congress in Biratnagar local polls, but Congress candidates won both chair and deputy chair there in 2017. The Maoists allied with the UML against the Congress in Tanahun’s Byas Municipality, but the Congress still won both chair and deputy-chair.  
For the Maoists, any electoral alliance with any party is a means to an end. The 2017 election results indicate that while the Maoists would gain from an electoral alliance with the NC, Maoist support will not guarantee the Nepali Congress local wins. 

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">All politics is local</a>, Sahina Shrestha
One of these is Chitwan’s Bharatpur Metropolitan City. In 2017, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0I-xEI6y3p20AgQQg8y0pd">Maoist supporters disrupted the vote counting</a> process, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw104ig7cwnP7s8S37QEKTuk">tearing up ballot papers </a>to secure the mayorship for Dahal’s daughter Renu Dahal with Congress support, who was the weaker candidate.
Many families who fled the Maoist insurgency in the mountains moved down and settled in Chitwan, and it is regarded as a Congress stronghold. Bharatpur, especially, has a strong Congress base and many there are not happy with their party leadership once again allowing Renu Dahal to win just because of coalition calculations in Kathmandu. The NC’s Chitwan committee decided on Sunday that it will go it alone to contest Bharatpur mayorship.  
It is an indication of just how opportunistic electoral alliances are that while the Maoists and Congress colluded to allow Renu Dahal to win Bharatpur in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2-vDW8RlGIzeX5LvObejYc" style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;">local elections in 2017</a>, the Maoists went on to partner with the UML for federal elections.  
Which is why what happens in Bharatpur during May’s local elections is so symbolic. If the Congress does not agree to the Maoists on an electoral alliance in Bharatpur, and the Maoists lose the city, the governing coalition will likely collapse. 
Ramji Dahal
Translated from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WIX4eZLmyPLoefdo_IYdq">Nepali original</a> in <a href="http://himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://himalkhabar.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3q7IwfaIjcCe-QLq-NZAi-">himalkhabar.com</a> by Shristi Karki.

Coalition calculation

<img width="1756" height="1420" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101124/6372094c9c7e80680e0b5533jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>This week it will be 26 years since the Maoists took up arms against the state, and 16 years since the war ended. Sher Bahadur Deuba was prime minister in 1996, just as he is now in an uneasy governing coalition with his erstwhile Maoist enemies. The war lasted ten years, leaving 17,000 dead. Unlike previous years, preparations for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">‘People’s War Day’ </a>on 13 February are muted. This is to be expected -- the warring sides are now not just the state, but are members of the same governing coalition. Today, both Deuba and his Maoist coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal want to brush the dirty business of war under the carpet. Two commissions set up to investigate war crimes are as good as defunct. Neither side wants to rake up the past, and hope that time will help erase memories of atrocities.  Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai presented Deuba with a 40-point ultimatum a day before Valentine’s on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/16/making-war-on-the-day-of-love/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">13 February 1996</a>. But even before the deadline ran out, guerrillas led by Nanda Kishore Pun and Barsha Man Pun attacked a police post in Rolpa district. Nanda Kishore <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/10/31/ex-guerrilla-is-vice-president/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Pun</a> is now Nepal’s vice-president, Barsha Man Pun has been minister several times and just returned after medical treatment in China. He may have been convicted of war crimes, but Agni Sapkota is Speaker of Parliament. Guerrilla commander Janardan Sharma is Finance Minister in the coalition government. In 1996, Deuba was too busy extinguishing a rebellion within his Nepali Congress party (sound familiar?) to respond to the spreading Maoist insurgency. When the police did react, it was with such indiscriminate violence that it the Maoists had no trouble with recruitment. Despite the 1990 transition to constitutional monarchy and the short-lived euphoria of democracy, the Maoists felt this would not end feudalism. They believed that it was only possible to end the ‘structural violence’ of the state by taking up arms against it. They faithfully followed the ‘protracted armed struggle’ tactics of Mao, who himself was a disciple of Sun Tzu.  They chose a remote and inaccessible region of the country where state neglect, inequity and social injustice were entrenched. But objective conditions for revolt were so ripe, the state’s response so ham-handed, that the insurgency spread like wildfire.The Maoists wanted to topple parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy, and were backed by forces inside and outside Nepal with the same goal. Emboldened by early gains, the Maoists used the momentum of the royal palace massacre of 1 June 2001 to take on the Royal Nepal Army a year later. The level of violence and casualties escalated – an average of 35 Nepalis were being killed every day at the hands of fellow-Nepalis.King Gyanendra’s ill-advised coup of 2005 backfired, and people came out on to the streets. Their demands were peace and democracy, in that order. A military stalemate on the ground, war weariness, and lobbying by external peacemakers led to a ceasefire. In the 16 years since, Nepal has gone from war to peace, from monarchy to republic, from Hindu state to secularism, but not much else has changed. Despite a progressive Constitution, social exclusion and injustice prevail, there is chronic instability, impunity, lack of accountability and governance failure. For those who still remember the horrors of war, the sacrifices have been squandered. Nepal is back to where it was in 1996 and even the political protagonists are the same people. In an election year, there is a move to rollback federalism, secularism and even monarchy. History is once more repeating itself as a farce.      Ever since the Shaktikhor tapes in which he boasted on candid camera to have hoodwinked the United Nations by inflating his party’s militia strength so he could pocket more compensation from the state, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been known for playing to the gallery. The ongoing political tug-o-war over the US-supported Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project has further exposed Dahal. The fact that he had co-signed (with Deuba) a letter to the MCC secretariat in Washington DC assuring it that he needed a few more months to build a consensus within the coalition for ratification by Parliament was diametrically opposite of what he was saying in public against the MCC. The political fallout has been damaging for PKD, even those sympathetic to his cause have taken him to task. Cartoonists and social media are having a field-day lampooning him. But Dahal has built such widespread public opinion against the project that he is now trying to portray himself as a staunch nationalist who stood up to American imperialism.   Dahal had two chances to serve as prime minister, and Bhattarai once. The two have fallen out long since, with Bhattarai now also threatening to split off from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) because he cannot get along with another former Maoist Upendra Yadav. PKD’s Maoist party is now a shadow of its former fearsome self. Most of his staunchest comrades have abandoned him. Many may not even remember 13 February.

13 February

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204f99c7e80680e0b288fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2193"/><figcaption>Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption></figure>As per Nepal’s Local Election Act 2017, voting for all 753 local governments must be held by 19 March. But the governing coalition that is supposed to announce poll dates has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-coalition-dilly-dallying-on-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dilly-dallying </a>because two of its members want it postponed.Although in a meeting of the High-level Political Mechanism on Tuesday all parties are said to have agreed to hold the local polls “on time as per the Constitution”, the Maoist Centre (MC) and the Unified Socialists (US) are still proposing a delay, even suggesting that federal elections be held first.Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the MC is said to have come out most strongly in Tuesday’s meeting to postpone local elections till November, even if it took an ordinance to amend the law to do so.The MC and US both want more time to prepare for the polls because they are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fragments of larger parties</a>. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party on the other hand want the election as scheduled on 27 April.At an all-party meeting at the Election Commission on 14 January, the MC and US came up with a legal argument that there were different provisions in the Constitution and the Act regarding the tenure of local representatives. They even used the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pandemic</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">high cost of separate polls</a>, and ‘election fatigue’ as pretexts to postpone the polls.“All of us are for local elections to be held immediately and we said as much, except for the Maoists and the United Socialists,” revealed Jhanak Pyakurel of the rightwing Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). “Periodic elections are a prerequisite in a democracy, they should be held as scheduled in April.”Indeed, 13 leaders out of 15 parties at the meeting said elections should be held on time. MC and US were the only ones demanding postponement.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialAnd it is clear why: Dahal wants elections to all three levels held simultaneously and that provincial and federal elections be held before local elections because he fears his party will be trounced in local polls.Dahal is aware that his party has stagnated and suffered defections since the last elections in 2017, and has seen an erosion of its mass base. One MC leader confided that the party was finding it difficult even to find candidates in some municipalities and wards, let alone win them.Dahal is also worried that the MC’s defeat in local elections will undermine his chances in provincial and federal assembly polls. The Nepali Congress has said <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">it is fighting elections on its own</a> and will not join an electoral alliance with the Maoists.Dahal is now using the argument that federal elections are needed first to break the deadlock in Parliament, which has not met for six months because of obstructions by the UML.Which is why Dahal is even thinking of once more forging an alliance with arch-enemy K P Oli’s UML. If that happens, Nepali politics will have come a full circle to pre-2017 days."We have two advantages in joining with the UML, we win more seats than aligning with other parties and it will also stop the defection of Maoist cadres to the UML," says a close Dahal confidante. "If an electoral pact with either UML or NC is ensured, we will agree to local elections in April.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/polls-in-the-time-of-pandemic/"> Polls in the time of pandemic</a>, Editorial

Dance of democracy

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204a99c7e80680e0b2874jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepal's coalition leaders meet at the Prime Minister's residence in Baluwatar on Tuesday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s ruling political parties are facing growing calls from civil society, constitutional experts and the public to announce dates for local elections which need to be held by April this year. However some members of the governing coalition, fearing lack of preparation and loss at the polls, are using various pretexts to try to postpone elections. A meeting of top leaders of the coalition partners on Tuesday is trying to forge a common position.Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress wants local polls to be held on schedule, and elections to the federal parliament later this year or early 2023. While the opposition UML agrees with this view, coalition partners Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialists want the local elections postponed till November and held together with voting for the other two tiers.They cite the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron surge</a>,  the huge costs of holding separate elections at a time when the economy is in trouble, as well as saving the public from too many elections this year.The Election Commission has warned the government that it needs to decide on the date by the end of this week if polls are to be held on 27 April.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal</a>, Laxmi BasnetBut pressure on the government to hold elections as mandated by the Constitution is growing. On Monday, umbrella organisations representing Nepal’s local elected bodies joined the call to conduct local elections.The National Association of Rural Municipalities in Nepal, Municipal Association of Nepal and Federation of District Coordinating Committees issued a joint press release to pressure the governing parties and the Election Commission to begin the process for local polls by May. ‘In a system where provincial and federal governments do not govern local political institutions, Nepal’s Constitution has not envisioned even a single day without locally elected leaders,’ the statement co-signed by the chairs of the three organisations reads. ‘We hope that the elections are held in a timely manner, and that local bodies do not go without elected representatives even for a day.' The Election Commission has recommended that elections be held on 27 April across the country in a single phase, or on 27 April and 5 May in two phases.The five-year terms of Nepal’s locally elected representatives, which began on 20 May 2017, will officially end on 19 May 2022. Nepal’s Constitution requires that  local elections be held within six months of the end of the current officials’ terms. Before that, Nepal is set to elect 20 members to the National Assembly on 26 January to replace those  retiring from the Upper House following the end of their four-year terms.Minister for Health and Population Birodh Khatiwada declared on Monday that dates for local elections will be decided within this week.Speaking at a press conference in Biratnagar on Monday, Khatiwada said: "The five-party alliance is committed to holding the local elections.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialIf the elections take place on the recommended dates, Nepal will go into the election cycle at a time when the third phase of Covid-19 infections is spreading across the country. On Monday, Nepal reported 5,747 positive cases out of 14,014 RT-PCR tests and 987 positive cases out of 3,451 antigen tests. Out of the total 6,734 positive cases, 3,939 are from the Kathmandu Valley, which has a significant concentration of registered voters in the country.Meanwhile, even as Nepal’s rightwing political parties capitalise on the growing debate about scrapping federalism and secularism from the Constitition, India’s state-level elections have reignited geopolitical tensions between the two countries once again. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked outrage in Nepal after  remarks during an election rally in India’s Uttarakhand state, during which he spoke about plans to extend a road to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/politics-and-history-of-nepals-kalapani-claim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disputed region </a>of Lipulekh. Some of India’s state-influenced tv channels have since been labelling Nepal as ‘pro-China’.While India-bashing is a popular past-time during elections in Nepal when parties join the nationalism bandwagon, it seems that Nepal-bashing has now also become a sport in Indian elections. Five Indian states will be holding elections in January-February, in votes that will determine the fate of Modi’s BJP government ahead of general elections in 2024. How the BJP fares in these elections will broadly influence the federalism and secularism debate in Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clean-up-elections-to-clean-up-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Clean up elections to clean up politics</a>, Shristi Karki

Nepal coalition dilly-dallying on polls

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

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