In math, if only two out of three variables can be together, its permutation can have only three values. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) have teamed up three times since 2017, the last time just four months ago. The Maoists and the Nepali Congress (NC) also got hitched three times.&nbsp; But this is the first time in seven years that the third combination of a NC-UML coalition is being tired out. It was Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists who, despite being the leader of a much smaller party by a long margin, used his swing vote to take turns hitching up with Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) and K P Oli (UML). Now, Deuba and Oli have jilted Dahal.&nbsp; Together, the NC and UML have a majority in Parliament to form a new government, but Prime Minister Dahal is refusing to go, saying he will only do so after facing a confidence vote within a month. It is foregone conclusion that Oli will be prime minister for the fourth time, and (if he keeps his promise) hand over to Deuba who will head the government for the sixth time till the next elections in 2027. “The Prime Minister seems to have been taken aback by how suddenly these developments happened,” says political analyst Hari Sharma. “But seeking a confidence vote is a more dignified way for him to go.” Constitutional amendments need a two-thirds majority in both Houses. While the NC and UML have the numbers in the Lower House through support from smaller parties, it will not be possible to obtain a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly without support from the Maoist Center. Sharma adds, “These two parties have come together as a matter of convenience, not principle. A constitutional amendment is only a political cover to justify the alliance.” The NC and the UML say they want to scrap provisions in the 2015 Constitution that gave excluded groups a presence in the legislature through Proportional Representation, saying it led to frequent coalition changes and instability. They have also hinted at doing away with federalism and secularism.&nbsp; “One of the most important parts of the Constitution are inclusivity and proportional representation,” says Sharma. “To see it as a problem that needs a constitutional amendment will be regressive. It would have been more credible if the NC-UML alliance had gone for political or governance reform.” Oli and Deuba tried to give an ideological veneer of the need for constitutional amendment to their secretive midnight pact, but some say it was in essence a joint power grab to offset imminent investigations into scandals that both their top leaders are implicated in: the NC in the fake refugee scam, and the UML in a land grab of a state-owned tea estate in Jhapa.&nbsp; For now, the main priority of the NC-UML is power sharing. The NC is wresting the all-important Home Ministry from the RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane which has been investigating the fake refugee and tea estate scams. Lamichhane himself is being investigated for misappropriating funds from co-operatives. The UML is to get nine ministries, including Finance. Oli had been unhappy with what he called a “Maoist budget” saying there had been no consultation with coalition partners. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was the inability of Dahal and Oli to agree on the lucrative appointment of the head of the Securities Board of Nepal (Sebon).&nbsp; The two parties have also decided to divide up provincial governments with three each, except Madhes Province. There is a geopolitical dimension with China openly backing unity among Communist parties, while India and the West want to thwart a UML-Maoist government. On Wednesday, UML ministers resigned en masse, after the party had urged Prime Minister Dahal to clear the way for a new government. Lamichhane’s RSP has said that it will not be joining the new government, while the monarchist RPP and some smaller parties welcomed the NC-UML alliance.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1582" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="UML ministers resign NT"> <figcaption>UML ministers resigned en masse on Wednesday after the party withdrew its support of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Some experts say an NC-UML alliance of the two biggest mainstream parties will make the government more stable and fulfil the mandate of Nepali voters. Indeed, despite being the first and second largest parties, the NC and UML have been playing mostly supporting roles in alliances with the much smaller Maoist-Centre.&nbsp; Consecutive governments led by Deuba, Oli and Dahal have failed to stimulate the economy, curb inflation, create jobs, or commit to transitional justice. Corruption became endemic during their tenures. Lately, Deuba and Oli were increasingly spooked by Lamichhane’s corruption probes. Bechan Jha, who was arrested last week for involvement in the fake refugee scandal, reportedly had connections right to the top echelons of the NC. And UML leaders were getting anxious about investigations into the tea estate scam. Nepal’s cyberphere is bristling with speculation that investigations to both scandals will now be sidelined. Kathmandu’s populist mayor Balen Shah added fuel to the fire with a telling social media post of Deuba and Oli holding teacups.&nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">यो समय गिरिबन्धु चियाको हो । काले काले मिलेर खाऊ भाले । <a href="https://t.co/ayi73w61mI">pic.twitter.com/ayi73w61mI</a>&mdash; Balen Shah (@ShahBalen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShahBalen/status/1807975048130842936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div> Nepal’s mainstream leadership must be concerned about the rise of populist parties and the public outrage on social media about their greed and opportunism. They want to amend the Constitution so that smaller populist parties do not have a strong presence in Parliament through proportional representation. In the midst of all this, the RSP suspended General Secretary Mukul Dhakal for his scathing internal report critical of Lamichhane putting his political ambition above the interest of the party. The losers in the fast-paced political developments this week appear to be Dahal and the Maoists, Lamichhane and the RSP and Madhav Nepal of the Unified Socialists. However, in the public’s eye, all three mainstream parties are the same, and citizens do not have faith in the new NC-UML alliance improving their living conditions.

Shristi Karki

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Rapid fire governments in Nepal

At the stroke of the midnight hour, and with the stroke of a pen, Nepal’s government has changed for the third time in a year.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is out of a job after his coalition partner the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) joined hands with the Nepali Congress (NC) to form a new government.&nbsp;
The NC had previously ditched the UML to join up with the Maoists, and the UML had again defected to join the Maoist-led coalition earlier this year.
According to the deal that will be endorsed by both parties on Tuesday, K P Oli of the UML and Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC will take turns being prime minister for 18 months each till the next election in 2027.
This will be 73-year-old Oli’s fourth time as prime minister, while Deuba, 78, who first became prime minister 30 years ago, will head the government for the sixth time.
Although Oli and Deuba say they want to form a national consensus government, it is not clear if Dahal will agree to bring his Maoist party into the new coalition. The NC is the largest party in Parliament, while the UML is second strongest, and the Maoists are a distant third.
Prime Minister Dahal will now have to prove his majority in Parliament within a month, but he could also resign after which President Ram Chandra Poudel will officially ask the biggest two parties to form a government.
Oli will then become prime minister for the fourth time, although the third time he was prime minister in 2021, he was in office for just one week when the Supreme Court overturned his decision to dissolve Parliament.
NC and UML leaders have said a new national government is necessary because of the need for a majority in the House to pass amendments to the constitutions to possibly dilute provisions for proportional representation in the legislature, which they say has led to instability and frequent changes in government.
However, the UML, NC and to a lesser extent the Maoists appear to be worried about the rise of populist parties and leaders in the last elections cashing in on the popular disillusionment among Nepalis with the three established parties who have ruled Nepal continuously for nearly two decades.
But the two leaders seem not to have realised that it is precisely this kind of political promiscuity that has led to frequent reshuffling of coalitions between the three main parties.
The NC and UML could also be acting to preempt possible investigations into scandals that their leaderships have been implicated in. Top NC leaders have been named in the fake refugee scandal, and the UML has been tainted by allegations of huge land grab of a former government-owned tea estate in Jhapa district.
By being in government, both parties could sideline investigations into scams that their top leaders are allegedly involved in. As per details of the Deuba-Oli nocturnal deal leaked to the press, the NC will get 10 ministries including the powerful Home Ministry and the UML will have nine including the finance portfolio.&nbsp;
The fate of the fourth party in Parliament, the RSP, and its controversial Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane is also unclear at this stage. The RSP is in the present Dahal-led coalition and Lamichhane had bargained as a party with swing votes to insist on having the home minister’s post which he has used in the past year to deflect investigations into his citizenship and cooperatives scandals.
Dahal appears to have had wind of the Deuba-Oli rapprochement and had tried to convince the two leaders that they could join the coalition he led as prime minister. Till Monday, Dahal was trying to prevent a possible NC-UML alliance, giving speeches calling for a unity of left parties.
There could be a geopolitical angle to this, since the Chinese have openly said they favour Nepal’s Communist parties to unite. And because of this, India and the West have worked behind the scenes to prevent left-wing unity.
The UML-NC ‘coup’ would prevent the UML and the Maoists from being in the same government.
There is uncertainty about the abrupt recall of eight NC-appointed ambassadors last month by the UML-Maoist coalition. Now that the NC is back in power, will some of them be reinstated?
Another uncertainty surrounds the seven provincial governments which have risen and fallen in the past year, mostly in relation to which coalition is in power in Kathmandu. The NC-UML deal is also said to include a proportional distribution of provincial governments, even though that goes completely against the spirit of federalism and political devolution as enshrined in the Constitution.

Nepal government changes again

We are now on Season 3 Episode 1 of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/shadow-government-nepal,3838" target="_blank">Nepal’s promiscuous political </a>saga.&nbsp;
The Maoists and the UML have joined hands for the second time in a year to form a new leftist-led coalition. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre has replaced the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deuba-5-qh371fm4" target="_blank">NC </a>with the UML and the United Socialists.
Dahal may say about the NC having double crossed him, but this was all about ensuring that he remains Prime Minister for another year instead of having to rotate it with Deuba and Nepal before the next election in 2027. Now, he just has to hand over to Oli next year.
This is all déjà vu. Dahal and Oli had a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ on rotating premiership after the 2017 election, and the Maoists merged with the UML to form the NCP. But both ended up stabbing each other in the back, and Oli had to step down. Why should it be any different this time?
The more things change in Nepali politics, the more they remain the same. The same three men of the three main parties have been playing musical chairs for most of the 18 years after the end of the conflict.
The cartoon by Diwakar Chhetri (above) was used in Nepali Times in 2020 when K P Oli was being catapulted to Singha Darbar. For this edition, we just exchanged him for Dahal, added Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP and changed the guy playing marbles to Deuba.
On Wednesday, the new coalition included the Maoists, UML, RSP, CPN (US) with the JSP still undecided. But in Nepal’s cybersphere, there is little excitement that this will change anything and the new lineup has been met mostly with ridicule.
Even a new party like the RSP under Lamichhane is behaving like an old party because he is in a tearing hurry to get on the fast-track to Singha Darbar. He angled for and got the Home Minister’s portfolio, while Barsaman Pun of the Maoists is Finance Minister. The JSP's Upendra Yadav is said to have wanted the Foreign Ministry, but the portfolio went to Narayan Kaji Shrestha.
That this is all about getting to power and staying there could not have been clearer because everyone is angling for the powerful ministries with the biggest discretionary funds.
UML Chief Whip Padam Giri has been named Minister for Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affiars after serving just 40 days as Health Minister during the previous Maoist-UML coalition. Hit Bahadur Tamang of the Maoists is Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister. The RSP’s Dol Prasad Aryal returns to the Labour Ministry despite conflict of interest allegations during his last stint because of his alleged involvement in recruitment and remittance companies. &nbsp;
The Unified Socialists say they are getting two ministries, including Federal and Social Service. The RSP’s Sumana Shrestha is Education Minister and Biraj Bhakta Shrestha Youth and Sports.&nbsp;
Lamichhane’s insistence on the Home Ministry portfolio is said to stem from a desire to exculpate himself from multiple controversies about citizenship and his investment in a cooperative that cheated depositors.
Monday’s political earthquake in Kathmandu has sent aftershocks to all seven provincial governments. The provinces all have their own party arithmetics in their assemblies, yet they are unduly impacted by what happens to the federal government. This is not how devolution is supposed to work.
Under federalism, Nepali politics is even more centralised than before with province politicians beholden not just to their party in Kathmandu, but to the head honcho in each of them for instructions. Which is why NC ministers have resigned in Karnali, and the NC controlled provincial governments in Gandaki and Sudur Paschim have sacked Maoist ministers. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Unlike the previous coalition, the main parties in the current coalition at least have similar sounding names like Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), Communist Party of Nepal (United Socialists). This could be a formidable leftist front in the 2027 election.
All this must be music to the ears of the Chinese, who have made no secret of their wish that Nepal’s Communists parties should all merge. And if the Chinese want that, then automatically the US-India bloc is not going to be too pleased.
The Maoist-NC coalition was seen to be better suited to India, but while this week’s change would have been a surprise for New Delhi, it may not have been a shock, since it is quite comfortable also with Prime Minister Dahal.

Kunda Dixit

Catapulting to Singha Darbar

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238d49c7e80680e0c73aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>President Bidya Devi Bhandari failed to authenticate an amendment bill to Nepal’s Citizenship Act by deadline on Tuesday 20 September, rendering it null and void. The bill had passed back and forth between Parliament and President’s office, before its rejection by a ceremonial head of state. It is seen by most experts as an unconstitutional move, and retaliation for Parliament’s refusal to deliberate her 15-point request for review.It is also proof of the deep polarisation ahead of elections between President Bhandari, who is close to the opposition UML, and the government. Passage of the bill would have been popular with the Tarai vote bank for the 5-party governing coalition, while the UML will hope to cash in on the opposition to the bill among many voters in the mountains.Understandably, coalition members were unified in their denouncement of the President allowing the bill to lapse after Parliament was already dissolved ahead of elections.‘This unconstitutional move by the President is a gross insult to Nepal’s federal Parliament elected by the people,’ reads a statement co-signed by leaders of four parties in government. The fifth coalition partner, Rastriya Janamorcha, did not sign, with its chief Chitra Bahadur KC casting strong reservations.In an unprecedented move, the Maoist-appointed Vice-president Nanda Bahadur Pun also condemned President Bhandari’s failure to certify the amendment. Interestingly, Maoist leader Narayankaji Shrestha wanted to have it both ways, tweeting: ‘The president does not have the right to go against the Constitution, but we agree with a lot of the points she has raised about the bill.’Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rule-of-the-lawless/">Rule of the lawless</a>, EditorialThe amendment would have allowed hundreds of thousands of Nepalis, especially in the Tarai, to finally obtain citizenship papers. But many activists had said the bill’s restrictions on citizenship for children born to single mothers, and the process of obtaining naturalised citizenship were discriminatory towards women.Former Law Minister Nilambar Acharya said that the Citizenship Bill was too sensitive and nuanced for knee-jerk, one-sided reaction.“The fact is that the House of Representatives passed the amendment bill without deliberating the President’s 15-point request for clarification,” Acharya said. “And should a Parliament that is about to reach its term take decisions on issues of long-term national interest? The new Parliament should have been entrusted with that.”Indeed, the bill has already become an election issue. Student wings affiliated with coalition parties took to the streets in protest (pictured) burning effigies of the President, while unions affiliated with the UML rallied with placards that read ‘salute to the President who stands up for the nation and nationalism’.With citizenship becoming a battle for populist vote-gathering, the row has over-shadowed moves by the governing coalition which also went against constitutional values. The closed list of proportional representation (PR)  candidates presented Monday included the Prime Minister’s wife, Arzoo Deuba, former NC minister Bimalendra Nidhi and Maoist former speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara.The PR system is actually meant to ensure that communities on the socio-political fringes get represented in decision-making. But the candidates on the list have perpetuated the status quoist, transactional, and nepotistic nature of Nepali politics.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/affirmative-inaction/">Affirmative inaction</a>, Editorial

President’s precedent

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131120/6372327f9c7e80680e0c4899jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/>In January Nepal’s Election Commission recommended a date for the local elections for April, but the top political leadership of the governing coalition dilly-dallied, citing Omicron and cost to buy time.After severe criticism from civil society and the media, Prime Minister Deuba reluctantly agreed to hold local elections on 13 May as scheduled. Because of their electoral alliance, coalition parties fared well anyway.Fast forward to July, and the leaders of the Nepali Congress and Maoists were having cold feet again about facing the electorate in November’s federal and provincial polls. There was lots of hemming-and hawing to the Election Commission’s  recommended poll date of 18 November. Coalition leaders let off trial balloons saying they need more time to align candidates.But coalition leaders finally agreed at a meeting on Wednesday at Baluwatar to hold the election on 20 November."The ruling alliance has requested the government to announce election dates as soon as possible,” Maoist leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha told us.Deuba is said to have told coalition partners that election dates would be finalised during Thursday’s meeting of the Council of Ministers, or at the next Cabinet meeting.Nepal’s law stipulates that election dates must be announced 120 days prior to polls, and there is only 110 days to go.“That legal provision is not a joke,” warns former Chief Election Commissioner Nilkantha Uprety, “The 120-day timeframe is set in stone in order to allow parties to prepare properly for polls."The reason Deuba had been twiddling this thumbs is the same as it was back in January: he has yet to receive a green signal from Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other coalition partners.Despite finally agreeing to a date, just the vaccination about facing voters has exposed the governing coalition’s deep sense of insecurity about how Nepal’s public perceives them — especially after the reinstatement this week of tainted Finance Minister Janardan Sharma. The surprise <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">win of independent candidates in mayoral races</a> in May was also a jolt.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-ministers-return-shows-anything-goes/">Nepal minister’s return shows anything goes</a>, EditorialFinance Minister Sharma’s reinstatement is directly related to having someone with access to state coffers in charge during campaigning. The government is also on a spree of transferring police officials and civil servants. Deuba could be waiting to transfer police chiefs and CDOs in as many as 50 districts before announcing election dates.“Prime Minister Deuba called me yesterday to let me know that he would be announcing the election dates through the Council of Ministers,” Dahal told the press gathered at his residence on 27 July. “But I told him to wait for a few more days.”One of the mysteries of Nepal’s coalition politics is why Deuba is so beholden to Dahal when all indications are that the Nepali Congress (NC) may actually do quite well by itself in November.“It is clear that the Prime Minister could not announce the election dates — even if he wanted to — unless Pushpa Kamal Dahal signs off on the decision,” explains political analyst Puranjan Acharya. “Deuba might be prime minister, but for all intents and purposes it is Dahal who is sitting on his chair.”Dahal has been trying to assuage Deuba by saying that he is happy for the Maoists to be the second biggest party.The opposition UML has been trying to capitalise on these scandals, and also taking to the streets to stir up public support against corruption and inflation.Dahal, meanwhile, had other reasons to want to hold off polls: the amendment to the 2014 Act on Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation.  Conflict survivors, human rights lawyers, activists, and civic groups are outraged that it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/impunity-through-immunity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">grants immunity to perpetrators of war crimes</a>.Dahal wants to have the amendment passed while his party and NC are in charge, since Deuba was prime minister during the conflict years and is also answerable to atrocities committed by state security.Despite dilly-dallying, the coalition has been laying the groundwork for elections by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/are-women-not-nepali-enough/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">passing an amendment</a> to the 2006 Citizenship Act that still discriminates against women, but is meant to appease the Tarai vote bank.Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya says he is ready for any date in November, and expected the date to be fixed at Thursday’s Cabinet meeting.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pre-poll-calculations/">Pre-poll calculations</a>, Shristi Karki

Election calculation

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413110/63722e1b9c7e80680e0c24abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>REFLECTIONS: A villager walks past a flooded paddy field in Pokhara this week as the annual rice planting kicked off. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Four members from Madhav Kumar Nepal’s Unified Socialists including Urban Development Minister Ram Kumari Jhakri and Tourism Minister Prem Ale resigned from the Cabinet this week to make way for new ministers from their party.This followed their initial defiance of the party’s order recalling them, and hinted at problems in Nepal’s new party even after its local election wins in Pokhara and Hetauda. However, there has been dissatisfaction within the party regarding the 5-party alliance’s inability to fetch it better election results.Now, the cabinet reshuffle has revealed fissures within the party that broke away from the UML last year. Prime Minister Deuba of the Nepali Congress himself facilitated the split by overriding a constitutional provision with an ordinance so that UML dissidents could break away and join his coalition.Deuba’s first year in office has been rocky. He took over from the UML’s K P Oli after a long and bruising power struggle in the midst of the pandemic.In the past year, 90% of Nepal’s eligible population has been fully vaccinated against Covid, lowering the risk of another wave. Deuba is credited with holding local elections despite initial reluctance of his Maoist and Unified Socialist coalition partners.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-mixed-report-card/">Deuba’s mixed report card</a>, EditorialBut efforts to revive the economy have been stymied by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Making matters worse was Finance Minister Janardan Sharma seeking to oust the Rastra Bank governor, which had Deuba's blessings. Sharma is also knee-deep in a budgetary scandal.Despite all the trouble and the differences within alliance members after local elections in May, Deuba’s five-party alliance initially formed to oust KP Oli of the UML continues to hold.Even as the new ministers were sworn in, trouble was brewing in another coalition partner, the JSP with Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai blaming each other for poor showing in the May election. JSP and the breakaway LSP lost their Madhes Province strongholds, and Yadav has reached out to LSP chair Mahanta Thakur in hopes of a reunification.Now, Yadav has recalled JSP ministers without Bhattarai’s input for a cabinet reshuffle. This could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and splits the party twice in less than a year.Meanwhile, Bhattarai is working on a Plan B: meeting his erstwhile Maoist nemesis Pushpa Kamal Dahal to smoke the peace pipe. There is also talk of Oli and Dahal getting back together.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/">Nepal’s local polls a rehearsal for federal elections</a>, Shristi KarkiWith all this pre-election jostling, many in Deuba’s own Nepali Congress think they do not really need an electoral alliance heading to the November polls. But the wily Deuba probably wants to prevent having to once more face a formidable Communist alliance of Maoists, Socialists and the UML in November.In February, Deuba also got the American-aided MCC project Parliament ratification despite considerable opposition from the Communist alliance partners, complicated geopolitics and polarising public opinion.But the government has found itself in the middle of another geopolitical quagmire with the US-proposed State Partnership Program (SPP). This has become such a hot potato that Deuba had to cancel a visit to the US in July.The opposing UML, coalition partners, as well as members of Deuba’s own party want the prime minister to clarify his position on the SPP.American military training and exercises in Nepal is not new, but the SPP could be a minefield for Deuba ahead of elections, and at a time when Sino-US relations are at rock bottom.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-goes-on-in-nepals-elections/">What goes on in Nepal's elections</a>, Shekhar Parajuli

Planting seeds of democracy

<img width="800" height="441" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c219c7e80680e0bd479jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Three days after the Nepali Congress (NC) Central Working Committee announced it would leave it up to its local committees to decide on candidates for local elections in May, the Maoist Center (MC) Chair Pushpa Kamal brought out his trump card: if the Congress did not agree on common candidates he would forge an alliance with the opposition UML.
Like a jilted partner in a love triangle, the Maoist Centre is playing the NC and UML against each other ahead of the 13 May<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/periphery-within-the-periphery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> local elections</a>. In this, Chitwan is a microcosm of what is happening across Nepal — the Maoists are too weak to go it alone, some in the Congress do not want an electoral alliance with them, and despite its split the UML still has a strong party structure down to the grassroots.
Whenever he does not get what he wants from the NC, Dahal threatens to join hands with the UML’s K P Oli. It was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3gag3_L8da5PSoGfs004EO">Maoist-UML alliance</a> that swept the 2017 federal election, and the two parties formally united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which got dismantled in 2021 by the Supreme Court after a prolonged power struggle between Oli and Dahal.
With local polls only a little more than a month away, coalition partners Nepali Congress, Maoists, Unified Socialist and the Janata Samajwadi Party met on Tuesday to try to decide on common candidates. But all five coalition members want different things to ensure maximum benefit for their own party.
An electoral alliance means coalition partners agree to jointly select <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deputies-drive-development-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">candidates</a> for mayors, municipality chairs and other positions so they do not cancel each other out. The NC thinks it can win a majority on its own. Dahal has boasted he can do the same, but his party needs the Congress more than the Congress needs him. But the Congress is also wary of the UML’s strength.

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/think-nationally-vote-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Think nationally, vote locally</a>, Editorial
Senior Congress leaders like Shekhar Koirala, who challenged Sher Bahadur Deuba for party chairmanship during the recent NC <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/tis-the-season-of-conventions-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">general convention</a>, have urged the prime minister against an electoral alliance. He wants local Congress leaders to have full authority to decide whether they choose to run independently, coordinate with coalition partners or with parties outside the governing alliance. 
In 2017, NC lost the key constituency of Pokhara, where the party’s candidate Ramji Kunwar lost the election to the UML candidate despite having formed an electoral alliance with the Maoists. This is why the Congress hierarchy is averse to partnering with the Maoists.  
Similarly, the UML and the Maoists had formed separate alliances against the Congress in Biratnagar local polls, but Congress candidates won both chair and deputy chair there in 2017. The Maoists allied with the UML against the Congress in Tanahun’s Byas Municipality, but the Congress still won both chair and deputy-chair.  
For the Maoists, any electoral alliance with any party is a means to an end. The 2017 election results indicate that while the Maoists would gain from an electoral alliance with the NC, Maoist support will not guarantee the Nepali Congress local wins. 

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">All politics is local</a>, Sahina Shrestha
One of these is Chitwan’s Bharatpur Metropolitan City. In 2017, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0I-xEI6y3p20AgQQg8y0pd">Maoist supporters disrupted the vote counting</a> process, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw104ig7cwnP7s8S37QEKTuk">tearing up ballot papers </a>to secure the mayorship for Dahal’s daughter Renu Dahal with Congress support, who was the weaker candidate.
Many families who fled the Maoist insurgency in the mountains moved down and settled in Chitwan, and it is regarded as a Congress stronghold. Bharatpur, especially, has a strong Congress base and many there are not happy with their party leadership once again allowing Renu Dahal to win just because of coalition calculations in Kathmandu. The NC’s Chitwan committee decided on Sunday that it will go it alone to contest Bharatpur mayorship.  
It is an indication of just how opportunistic electoral alliances are that while the Maoists and Congress colluded to allow Renu Dahal to win Bharatpur in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2-vDW8RlGIzeX5LvObejYc" style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;">local elections in 2017</a>, the Maoists went on to partner with the UML for federal elections.  
Which is why what happens in Bharatpur during May’s local elections is so symbolic. If the Congress does not agree to the Maoists on an electoral alliance in Bharatpur, and the Maoists lose the city, the governing coalition will likely collapse. 
Ramji Dahal
Translated from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WIX4eZLmyPLoefdo_IYdq">Nepali original</a> in <a href="http://himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://himalkhabar.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3q7IwfaIjcCe-QLq-NZAi-">himalkhabar.com</a> by Shristi Karki.

Coalition calculation

<img width="1756" height="1420" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101124/6372094c9c7e80680e0b5533jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>This week it will be 26 years since the Maoists took up arms against the state, and 16 years since the war ended. Sher Bahadur Deuba was prime minister in 1996, just as he is now in an uneasy governing coalition with his erstwhile Maoist enemies. The war lasted ten years, leaving 17,000 dead. Unlike previous years, preparations for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">‘People’s War Day’ </a>on 13 February are muted. This is to be expected -- the warring sides are now not just the state, but are members of the same governing coalition. Today, both Deuba and his Maoist coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal want to brush the dirty business of war under the carpet. Two commissions set up to investigate war crimes are as good as defunct. Neither side wants to rake up the past, and hope that time will help erase memories of atrocities.  Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai presented Deuba with a 40-point ultimatum a day before Valentine’s on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/16/making-war-on-the-day-of-love/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">13 February 1996</a>. But even before the deadline ran out, guerrillas led by Nanda Kishore Pun and Barsha Man Pun attacked a police post in Rolpa district. Nanda Kishore <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/10/31/ex-guerrilla-is-vice-president/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Pun</a> is now Nepal’s vice-president, Barsha Man Pun has been minister several times and just returned after medical treatment in China. He may have been convicted of war crimes, but Agni Sapkota is Speaker of Parliament. Guerrilla commander Janardan Sharma is Finance Minister in the coalition government. In 1996, Deuba was too busy extinguishing a rebellion within his Nepali Congress party (sound familiar?) to respond to the spreading Maoist insurgency. When the police did react, it was with such indiscriminate violence that it the Maoists had no trouble with recruitment. Despite the 1990 transition to constitutional monarchy and the short-lived euphoria of democracy, the Maoists felt this would not end feudalism. They believed that it was only possible to end the ‘structural violence’ of the state by taking up arms against it. They faithfully followed the ‘protracted armed struggle’ tactics of Mao, who himself was a disciple of Sun Tzu.  They chose a remote and inaccessible region of the country where state neglect, inequity and social injustice were entrenched. But objective conditions for revolt were so ripe, the state’s response so ham-handed, that the insurgency spread like wildfire.The Maoists wanted to topple parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy, and were backed by forces inside and outside Nepal with the same goal. Emboldened by early gains, the Maoists used the momentum of the royal palace massacre of 1 June 2001 to take on the Royal Nepal Army a year later. The level of violence and casualties escalated – an average of 35 Nepalis were being killed every day at the hands of fellow-Nepalis.King Gyanendra’s ill-advised coup of 2005 backfired, and people came out on to the streets. Their demands were peace and democracy, in that order. A military stalemate on the ground, war weariness, and lobbying by external peacemakers led to a ceasefire. In the 16 years since, Nepal has gone from war to peace, from monarchy to republic, from Hindu state to secularism, but not much else has changed. Despite a progressive Constitution, social exclusion and injustice prevail, there is chronic instability, impunity, lack of accountability and governance failure. For those who still remember the horrors of war, the sacrifices have been squandered. Nepal is back to where it was in 1996 and even the political protagonists are the same people. In an election year, there is a move to rollback federalism, secularism and even monarchy. History is once more repeating itself as a farce.      Ever since the Shaktikhor tapes in which he boasted on candid camera to have hoodwinked the United Nations by inflating his party’s militia strength so he could pocket more compensation from the state, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been known for playing to the gallery. The ongoing political tug-o-war over the US-supported Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project has further exposed Dahal. The fact that he had co-signed (with Deuba) a letter to the MCC secretariat in Washington DC assuring it that he needed a few more months to build a consensus within the coalition for ratification by Parliament was diametrically opposite of what he was saying in public against the MCC. The political fallout has been damaging for PKD, even those sympathetic to his cause have taken him to task. Cartoonists and social media are having a field-day lampooning him. But Dahal has built such widespread public opinion against the project that he is now trying to portray himself as a staunch nationalist who stood up to American imperialism.   Dahal had two chances to serve as prime minister, and Bhattarai once. The two have fallen out long since, with Bhattarai now also threatening to split off from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) because he cannot get along with another former Maoist Upendra Yadav. PKD’s Maoist party is now a shadow of its former fearsome self. Most of his staunchest comrades have abandoned him. Many may not even remember 13 February.

13 February

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204f99c7e80680e0b288fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2193"/><figcaption>Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption></figure>As per Nepal’s Local Election Act 2017, voting for all 753 local governments must be held by 19 March. But the governing coalition that is supposed to announce poll dates has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-coalition-dilly-dallying-on-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dilly-dallying </a>because two of its members want it postponed.Although in a meeting of the High-level Political Mechanism on Tuesday all parties are said to have agreed to hold the local polls “on time as per the Constitution”, the Maoist Centre (MC) and the Unified Socialists (US) are still proposing a delay, even suggesting that federal elections be held first.Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the MC is said to have come out most strongly in Tuesday’s meeting to postpone local elections till November, even if it took an ordinance to amend the law to do so.The MC and US both want more time to prepare for the polls because they are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fragments of larger parties</a>. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party on the other hand want the election as scheduled on 27 April.At an all-party meeting at the Election Commission on 14 January, the MC and US came up with a legal argument that there were different provisions in the Constitution and the Act regarding the tenure of local representatives. They even used the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pandemic</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">high cost of separate polls</a>, and ‘election fatigue’ as pretexts to postpone the polls.“All of us are for local elections to be held immediately and we said as much, except for the Maoists and the United Socialists,” revealed Jhanak Pyakurel of the rightwing Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). “Periodic elections are a prerequisite in a democracy, they should be held as scheduled in April.”Indeed, 13 leaders out of 15 parties at the meeting said elections should be held on time. MC and US were the only ones demanding postponement.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialAnd it is clear why: Dahal wants elections to all three levels held simultaneously and that provincial and federal elections be held before local elections because he fears his party will be trounced in local polls.Dahal is aware that his party has stagnated and suffered defections since the last elections in 2017, and has seen an erosion of its mass base. One MC leader confided that the party was finding it difficult even to find candidates in some municipalities and wards, let alone win them.Dahal is also worried that the MC’s defeat in local elections will undermine his chances in provincial and federal assembly polls. The Nepali Congress has said <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">it is fighting elections on its own</a> and will not join an electoral alliance with the Maoists.Dahal is now using the argument that federal elections are needed first to break the deadlock in Parliament, which has not met for six months because of obstructions by the UML.Which is why Dahal is even thinking of once more forging an alliance with arch-enemy K P Oli’s UML. If that happens, Nepali politics will have come a full circle to pre-2017 days."We have two advantages in joining with the UML, we win more seats than aligning with other parties and it will also stop the defection of Maoist cadres to the UML," says a close Dahal confidante. "If an electoral pact with either UML or NC is ensured, we will agree to local elections in April.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/polls-in-the-time-of-pandemic/"> Polls in the time of pandemic</a>, Editorial

Dance of democracy

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204a99c7e80680e0b2874jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepal's coalition leaders meet at the Prime Minister's residence in Baluwatar on Tuesday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s ruling political parties are facing growing calls from civil society, constitutional experts and the public to announce dates for local elections which need to be held by April this year. However some members of the governing coalition, fearing lack of preparation and loss at the polls, are using various pretexts to try to postpone elections. A meeting of top leaders of the coalition partners on Tuesday is trying to forge a common position.Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress wants local polls to be held on schedule, and elections to the federal parliament later this year or early 2023. While the opposition UML agrees with this view, coalition partners Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialists want the local elections postponed till November and held together with voting for the other two tiers.They cite the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron surge</a>,  the huge costs of holding separate elections at a time when the economy is in trouble, as well as saving the public from too many elections this year.The Election Commission has warned the government that it needs to decide on the date by the end of this week if polls are to be held on 27 April.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal</a>, Laxmi BasnetBut pressure on the government to hold elections as mandated by the Constitution is growing. On Monday, umbrella organisations representing Nepal’s local elected bodies joined the call to conduct local elections.The National Association of Rural Municipalities in Nepal, Municipal Association of Nepal and Federation of District Coordinating Committees issued a joint press release to pressure the governing parties and the Election Commission to begin the process for local polls by May. ‘In a system where provincial and federal governments do not govern local political institutions, Nepal’s Constitution has not envisioned even a single day without locally elected leaders,’ the statement co-signed by the chairs of the three organisations reads. ‘We hope that the elections are held in a timely manner, and that local bodies do not go without elected representatives even for a day.' The Election Commission has recommended that elections be held on 27 April across the country in a single phase, or on 27 April and 5 May in two phases.The five-year terms of Nepal’s locally elected representatives, which began on 20 May 2017, will officially end on 19 May 2022. Nepal’s Constitution requires that  local elections be held within six months of the end of the current officials’ terms. Before that, Nepal is set to elect 20 members to the National Assembly on 26 January to replace those  retiring from the Upper House following the end of their four-year terms.Minister for Health and Population Birodh Khatiwada declared on Monday that dates for local elections will be decided within this week.Speaking at a press conference in Biratnagar on Monday, Khatiwada said: "The five-party alliance is committed to holding the local elections.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialIf the elections take place on the recommended dates, Nepal will go into the election cycle at a time when the third phase of Covid-19 infections is spreading across the country. On Monday, Nepal reported 5,747 positive cases out of 14,014 RT-PCR tests and 987 positive cases out of 3,451 antigen tests. Out of the total 6,734 positive cases, 3,939 are from the Kathmandu Valley, which has a significant concentration of registered voters in the country.Meanwhile, even as Nepal’s rightwing political parties capitalise on the growing debate about scrapping federalism and secularism from the Constitition, India’s state-level elections have reignited geopolitical tensions between the two countries once again. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked outrage in Nepal after  remarks during an election rally in India’s Uttarakhand state, during which he spoke about plans to extend a road to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/politics-and-history-of-nepals-kalapani-claim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disputed region </a>of Lipulekh. Some of India’s state-influenced tv channels have since been labelling Nepal as ‘pro-China’.While India-bashing is a popular past-time during elections in Nepal when parties join the nationalism bandwagon, it seems that Nepal-bashing has now also become a sport in Indian elections. Five Indian states will be holding elections in January-February, in votes that will determine the fate of Modi’s BJP government ahead of general elections in 2024. How the BJP fares in these elections will broadly influence the federalism and secularism debate in Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clean-up-elections-to-clean-up-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Clean up elections to clean up politics</a>, Shristi Karki

Nepal coalition dilly-dallying on polls

In the black and white photograph, General Wangdu smiles broadly in front of the dusty cactus garden in Kathmandu’s Annapurna Hotel. With an ill-fitting jacket and shaggy hair he looks benign enough, but this was the last leader of the Tibetan freedom fighters who led the resistance against the Chinese from their remote mountain hideouts in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/comings-and-goings-in-mustang">Mustang</a>. Five months later, Wangdu was dead. Snapped in March 1974, I had only recently arrived in Nepal. How did I meet this legendary fighter? Possibly with his devoted camp follower, Lynne Klapecki, and probably in the Om Restaurant near Freak Street which was the preferred <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/hippie-trail-nostalgia-in-kathmandu">hippie hang-out</a>. Om Lobsang and his brother Yeshe were <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/earthquake-brings-back-memories-of-camps-for-tibetan-refugees">refugees from East Tibet </a>whose cafe offered a friendly welcome and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/momo-loco"> the best momos</a> - they became my in-laws after I married their eldest brother Tenzin, but that was a decade later.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_4573b34282b0f5395c007243d6bef12c7ba76bfd520419e994cdcea048d795a1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2025052403054_4573b34282b0f5395c007243d6bef12c7ba76bfd520419e994cdcea048d795a1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1583" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>Photo: LISA CHOEGYAL</figcaption> </figure>  Wangdu’s English was enthusiastically rudimentary, but even riding around town with him on the back of an aging <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-new-motorbike-museum">motorbike</a>, he was a commanding presence. Always flanked by armed outriders, impressive scars marked his forearms and a pistol hung from the cord around his neck. A charismatic guerrilla leader, Wangdu was celebrated by his followers for his tough commitment and respected for his measured pragmatism. He seemed so young to have shouldered such a responsibility of command, leading hundreds of hardened <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/50-years-after-the%20raid-into-Tibet,1012#google_vignette">Khampa combatants </a>through what had been a particularly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/heavy-snowfall-over-nepal-himalaya">brutal winter in Mustang</a>, the last bastion to hold out against the Chinese invasion of their Tibetan homeland.&nbsp; The freedom fighters of Tibet, known as the Chushi-Gangdruk, had emerged to resist the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism">Chinese takeover</a> of Tibet during the 1950s. Estimated to be 80,000-strong at the time of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-or-who-after-the-dalai-lama">the Dalai Lama</a>’s final escape to India in 1959, the sheer number of Chinese deployed into Tibet eventually forced the Chushi-Gangdruk to retreat to Mustang, From this high Himalayan stronghold, they continued cross-border raids on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) throughout the 1960s.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_8a4a935ba25ae79dc3a63bb5c14626927020e5ec098093c45ccb9a5982e009fd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2025052403054_8a4a935ba25ae79dc3a63bb5c14626927020e5ec098093c45ccb9a5982e009fd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1114" height="676" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>Guerrillas known as the Chushi-Gangdruk emerged to resist the Chinese annexation of Tibet during the 1950s. Photo courtesy: MIKEL DUNHAM</figcaption> </figure>  Their Kathmandu base was a small discreet lodge in a back lane near Rani Pokhari. Sipping sweet tea from a blue mug with a chipped lid, I sat bemused in a corner of the Mustang Hotel room whilst Wangdu and his cohorts received a battered brown suitcase from their CIA connection, a tousle-haired American in a leather jacket. Heaved onto the dingy bedspread that covered the thin mattress, it was clicked open to reveal piles of neatly stacked dollar bills.&nbsp; I cannot think why Wangdu allowed me to witness this handover but I was clearly no threat, a newly arrived world traveller with no understanding of the stakes nor any Nepali or <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/tibetan-music-in-nepals-sacred-valley">Tibetan language</a>. Despite armed guards in the corridor,Wangdu radiated confidence and bravado, and there was a practiced familiarity to the tense transaction. This deadly dance for many years had been funded by the Americans, tolerated by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-kingdom-within-a-republic">Mustang’s residents</a>, and permitted by King Mahendra and the Nepali authorities who it suited to turn a blind eye.&nbsp; But Mahendra died in 1972, and times were changing. Richard Nixon’s ping-pong diplomacy thawed the cold war and signalled a fresh entente with China. Nepal’s yet-to-be-crowned <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">King Birendra </a>was under pressure to curb the irritating incursions against the PLA launched from the Nepali territory of Mustang. Keen to appease his northern neighbour, on several occasions the King summoned Wangdu for peace talks but, despite increasingly overwhelming odds, Wangdu refused to surrender.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_a8efd5cfb92cd997bd7cb74296a936fef46e2f7428f9cd642b03f1ac4ea11ecb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="2025052403054_a8efd5cfb92cd997bd7cb74296a936fef46e2f7428f9cd642b03f1ac4ea11ecb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1055" height="885" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>General Wangdu flanked by two Tibetan resistance fighters in Mustang in the 1970s. Photo courtesy: MIKEL DUNHAM</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_75969125a745847a2ef82b6fe8b9106c0b21a116d85b8efdf5d2ee89a347bb31.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="2025052403054_75969125a745847a2ef82b6fe8b9106c0b21a116d85b8efdf5d2ee89a347bb31" data-rendition-name="original" width="1044" height="792" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>King Birendra with General Wangdu (right in dark glasses) taken in 1974 possibly in Mustang after one of their few attempts at negotiation. Photo courtesy: RAJRNDRA KUNWAR</figcaption> </figure>  While I naively rode pillion around Kathmandu in the spring sunshine, Wangdu was in the midst of what turned out to be his final round of negotiations with the Nepal government. Refusing to cease hostilities with the Chinese, Wangdu must have suspected the cost of his decision, making his cheerful smile in the photograph all the more poignant and brave. It was only much later that I appreciated the significance of the moment. Wangdu had been sent to replace the first resistance leader in Mustang, Baba Gen Yeshe, a much derided corrupt character who stole money meant for his troops and exploited fleeing refugees by seizing their treasures. Baba Gen Yeshe never forgave Wangdu,and sought revenge in May 1974 by betraying him and his commanders to the Nepal authorities. Renewed Chinese incursions from the north, active PLA collusion with the Nepali forces under the new King, and treachery from within the Chushi-Gangdrukranks combined to seal their fate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_e0987a7c90d76431b0d7d5e6115ebfe3dbda7ab939e5941e079c18d722e884c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="2025052403054_e0987a7c90d76431b0d7d5e6115ebfe3dbda7ab939e5941e079c18d722e884c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1400" height="769" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>British television journalists George Patterson and Adrian Cowell embedded themselves with Khampa guerrillas and accompanied them from Tsum Valley on a cross border raid on a Chinese Army convoy in 1964. Photo: ESSAYS ON NEPAL / SAM COWAN</figcaption> </figure>  Mikel Dunham, renowned author of Buddha’s Warriors, writes: ‘It is possible that Wangdu was waiting for some cue from the Dalai Lama’s government-in-exile in Dharamsala, India. It is equally possible – during that last, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-human-cost-of-nepal-s-yarsa-gold-rush?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR31-Cqw8oyIwMPzf_35e4Skr0ululJvLf3_vDkzHn-AYG2h8uPw2rqqErg_aem_tGVn5coY1-jA7fze_xqhew">desolate winter </a>– that he made the decision to go out in glory rather than admit defeat. Over the last fifteen years, Wangdu had experienced Tibet’s organized resistance being squeezed and shoved around by every conceivable outside force.&nbsp; First they had been pushed out of their own country by the PLA; then they had been refused sanction while on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/nepal-india-trans-boundary-bonds?fbclid=IwAR0PpJ5zUEbwdug3g_U3ar6FUugngRY0S8Tl2v_7wqzrsHmXWcXsKjvL4t4">Indian soil</a>; then they were abandoned by the Americans because, apparently, Nixon wanted to make friends with Wangdu’s mortal enemies, the communists; then they had been betrayed by the vampiric Baba Gen Yeshe – a Tibetan and, even worse, a fellow Khampa; and now, finally Wangdu’s army was being evicted by the Nepalis. One thing was certain: Wangdu was a warrior. To imagine Wangdu simply giving up and settling down in the pacific squalor of a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/elderly-left-in-bhutan-refugee-camp">refugee camp </a>was unthinkable.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_8fc1ffef4ae751628b90ae781b66e11e51e4fdde2787207c9042efbee345ce49.jpg" data-media-id="editor_20" data-image-id="2025052403054_8fc1ffef4ae751628b90ae781b66e11e51e4fdde2787207c9042efbee345ce49" data-rendition-name="original" width="500" height="746" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>The much derided Baba Gen Yeshe, the first Tibetan resistance leader in Mustang, who betrayed Wangdu for personal gain. Photo courtesy: MIKEL DUNHAM</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025052403054_b1d833cdb00d3ac4416b844d8730475cd88c238caaaf8da69889a584eea229a3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="2025052403054_b1d833cdb00d3ac4416b844d8730475cd88c238caaaf8da69889a584eea229a3" data-rendition-name="original" width="500" height="656" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> <figcaption>Aditya SJB Rana of the Royal Nepal Army whose team ambushed Wangdu and his cohorts at the top of Tinker Pass in Darchula, West Nepal. Photo courtesy: GAUTAM SJB RANA</figcaption> </figure>  By August 1974 the game was up. Wangdu and six of his exhausted party were killed on their horses by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7270">the Royal Nepal Army</a> on the brink of escape. The officer in charge, Aditya SJB Rana, cleverly predicted their route into India after they failed to silence a police radio in Yari. A carefully laid ambush trapped them near the summit of the Tinker Pass in Darchula,at 5,000 meters the highest military operation of its time. Wangdu’s body was helicoptered to Kathmandu, and a big show made of the royal Nepal victory.&nbsp; The Tibetan armed insurgency against China had reached its end.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250524030520_3ff9c6fc85a65bc9a2c3afe9736d9f5f9413de752e790a5d9dca0981ea94f9b4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_23" data-image-id="20250524030520_3ff9c6fc85a65bc9a2c3afe9736d9f5f9413de752e790a5d9dca0981ea94f9b4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="The last days of the Khampa NT"> </figure>

The Last Days of the Khampa

The newly-formed Himalayan Art Council is set to launch Nepal’s National Art Protection Platform that seeks to preserve <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage">Nepal’s unique cultural heritage </a>using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship"> AI-powered tools</a>. The Council seeks to safeguard <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepali-art-going-places">Nepali art works</a> from neglect, theft and counterfeiting as well as preserve existing artwork and celebrate living masters by giving them a cultural space to continue the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/sacred-survival">sacred art traditions</a>. "We are introducing a new digital platform designed to preserve, verify and elevate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-new-generation-of-alternative-artists">Nepal’s art for generations to come,</a>” says a statement from the Council, adding that the digital platform will use AI told for authentication and blockchain to keep track of works of art. Artists can now be protected by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai?fbclid=IwAR1uwmTVq4gUB70ljfRezjzukD9ArWXPuMnUikopeQ8PoiZMjicToPSwhKE&amp;=1">AI tools</a> that detect forgeries, identify their work even when unsigned, and ensure they receive proper recognition and credit. The archives will be searchable with translated inscription and interactive guides. Says curator Meena Lama: “AI and blockchains are tools that give us the power to detect fakes and identify unsigned paintings and track every piece. With these tools we can restore trust, secure authorship and give artists the dignity they deserve.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53" data-rendition-name="original" width="1300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum."> <figcaption>Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  The Council is also holding an exhibition of Nepali cultural masterpieces with 50 historical <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-the-art,671">thangka and paubha </a>by past masters and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/between-the-sacred-and-everyday">contemporary works by current artists</a>. This curated collection is a living tribute to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">Himalayan culture</a> with economic depictions of deities, mandala and sacred narratives. The exhibition at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/a-portal-into-patan-s-past-and-present">Patan Museum</a> also provides an opportunity to meet painters and custodians of art and culture. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/golden-deities">Golden deities</a>, Sewa Bhattarai ‘The exhibition is only the first step in a long journey to ensure that Nepali art is no just seen but fully understood, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Narratives-of-Faith-and-Memory-Remembering-the-Lost-Sculptures-of-Kathmandu-exhibition,987">protected and remembered</a>,’ the Council says. Artist Kailash K Shrestha of Artudio has spent decades promoting thankha and paubha traditions because of their beauty and devotional meaning. But he also says artists are underpaid, exploited and ignored. He adds, “AI and blockchain are not just buzzwords, they are powerful tools that can protect Nepal’s artists from fraud, verify authenticity and build a permanent record of provenance.” Traditional Art Exhibition Till 17 May Patan Museum

Digital protection for Nepal’s art

<a href="https://www.instagram.com/prabalgurung/" target="_blank">Prabal Gurung</a> left Nepal for New York in 1999 to escape years of bullying, sexism and homophobia, and to pursue his dream of becoming a fashion designer. He <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqN0VaoAI5w" target="_blank">realised his dream</a>, but did not escape discrimination and racism in the new world. Propelled by passion for fashion, Gurung overcame everything America threw at him. He has attained <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/style/story/prabal-gurung-recalls-his-first-met-gala-when-zoe-saldana-was-at-his-side?srsltid=AfmBOooy-H0oGgxMit864FnW_Pmw8mUnV8rYrh-co-f6OyYK6m2ip5hP" target="_blank">fame and recognition</a> for his haute couture dress designs while remaining true to his Nepali roots, and is even more resolute in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSmNauyzACk" target="_blank">fighting prejudice</a> in all its forms. Prabal Gurung’s newly-released memoir <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Walk-Like-Girl-Memoir/dp/B0DG11HCDQ?fbclid=IwY2xjawKZfpxleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHuZcIJO2OXyXcRm1oq1iG6wzeoF7VJFrQ7GXOFI0YxuZZ4id_CNvSZSZZIna_aem_pG_mOKG73RTnYvN8JaC4fA">Walk Like a Girl</a> is a saga of harrowing abuse in boarding schools in Nepal and India, only finding himself facing a different kind of bullying in the US. He prevails over it all to be where he is today: an award-winning American fashion designer with his own label. Walk Like a Girl was launched last week in New York at a time when everything Gurung fought for — tolerance, inclusion and diversity — are in retreat in his adopted country because of a president who has espoused a culture of bullying. The book is a searing, raw exposé of how cruel and abusive people can be even at a young age in school. On the other hand, it also shows that there are generous, compassionate and open-minded souls out there. In his book, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4le_uWX7YE">Prabal Gurung</a> calls out those who tormented and tried to hold him back (some of their names have been altered). The moral of his story is: resist, never stop believing in yourself, do not let others define you, never lose sight of your dream, and help those who have been kept out. “Walk like a girl” was a slur used by bullies back in school in Nepal and India for Gurung’s effeminate ways. He fought back then, and he is still resisting by turning those words into something to be proud of.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250519170544_4ffc9c3f565dd2cfa754d10b224816897b82bb31ebaee91b6d79d469fc96f14e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250519170544_4ffc9c3f565dd2cfa754d10b224816897b82bb31ebaee91b6d79d469fc96f14e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1253" loading="lazy" alt="Prabal Gurung NT"> <figcaption>Prabal Gurung at home in Kathmandu in the 1990s.</figcaption> </figure>  “Living through it all was one thing, but writing about it is one of the hardest things I have done in my life,” admitted Gurung during the launch. “I broke down constantly during the six-year writing process.” He continues: “I did not want this to be a victim’s book. I did not want to burden my readers with my emotions. I wanted my struggle to be an inspiration for others facing what I faced. I am grateful to those who bullied me in school, they made me a stronger person ready to face the world.” Indeed, this book is a departure from his earlier one titled simply, Prabal Gurung (Abrams, 2019), which was a lush pictorial autobiography of his career in fashion. Walk Like a Girl is not a typical fashion book, it is an intimate tale of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16997">Gurung’s travails and triumphs</a>, and how he willed himself to succeed. Prabal pays a lavish tribute to his mother Durga Rana. We find out she is a descendant of the first wife of the eldest son of Jang Bahadur Rana who was banished to Palpa in the late 19th century. Prabal’s father served in the Singapore Police and that is where he was born before the family returned to Nepal when he was four. Gurung relates with brutal honesty about the violence his mother endured from his father. Durga raises three children as a single mother in Nepal, and Prabal credits her for his fierce determination to resist patriarchy and injustice, which in time manifests itself in his hyper-feminine and subversive dress designs. Writing the book has been a cathartic experience for Gurung, who says he is now relieved of the burdens of his past. It no longer haunts him, and he does not have to prove anything to anyone anymore. Walk Like a Girl has life lessons not just for the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DJmOcSgxdWz/" target="_blank">fashion industry</a>, but for every other profession. How can my job serve a greater cause? Gurung tells us his work is <a href="https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/why-designer-prabal-gurung-doesnt-want-just-stick-fashion" target="_blank">bigger than just making clothes</a>, it is about making the world a better place because it could do with a lot of improvement.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250519170544_d75296ad8bfdc00d88935f40d23543c6fea3d4d6a10e61a99d6cfc6127f2ee5b.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250519170544_d75296ad8bfdc00d88935f40d23543c6fea3d4d6a10e61a99d6cfc6127f2ee5b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1516" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Prabal Gurung"> </figure>  This story of chasing the American dream may sound familiar to many immigrants: knocking on doors for jobs, rejections, trying to survive from day to day on expensive rent, and dealing with subtle racism in white America. Gurung finds racism is rife, and he is often mockingly called ‘gaysian’. He writes: ‘There was a strong hypocrisy — this idea of independence felt like a marketting ruse … and for all the talk of feminism in America, these high society women were trapped by the patriarchy just like in Nepal and India.’ After a trek to the Khumbu region in 2013, Gurung is inspired to use the colours, palette and textures of Nepal for his collection exhibited on Manhattan’s 8th Avenue. A major buyer tells him bluntly: “Stick to making pretty dresses … if I need to see a collection like this, I could buy a copy of National Geographic.” The New York Times was equally dismissive: ‘The designer tries to draw connections between blistered techo-fabric used to construct it and the topography of his homeland, Nepal. But, at the moment, he has lost his map.’ One potential investor tells Gurung he cannot design for Americana because “you do not look American”. Gurung wants to use expletives, but restrains himself. After a fundraiser in New York for the Nepal earthquake in 2015, some belittled his effort, saying: “Here comes the saviour."&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/prabal-gurung-by-prabal-gurung">Prabal Gurung by Prabal Gurung</a>, Kunda Dixit The Gurkha DNA must be dominant in Prabal Gurung’s genes because he does not take such mistreatment lying down. When asked by a fashion publicist why he was designing clothes for fat people, he snaps back: “Because of people like you.” He joins the Black Lives Matter and #MeToo movements, launches the Shikshya Foundation charity in Nepal, and has powerful allies among celebrities who wear clothes he designed: Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Sara Jessica Parker, Kamala Harris, Deepika Padukone … it is a long list.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250519150556_48a5f4211991a23fa85b64bbd5377575ca7081d97309d7542035591dda5180fe.png" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250519150556_48a5f4211991a23fa85b64bbd5377575ca7081d97309d7542035591dda5180fe" data-rendition-name="original" width="1114" height="1534" loading="lazy" alt="Being Prabal Gurung by design"> <figcaption>Nigerian novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie wearing Atelier Prabal Gurung’s design for Met Gala 2025 in which the theme was ‘Superfine: Tailoring Black Style’. </figcaption> </figure>  “I don’t dress women to look beautiful, they already are,” Gurung says. “I try to bring out their innate strength and grace.” <a href="https://www.instagram.com/stories/highlights/17908766880140171/" target="_blank">Admirers</a> tell Gurung he makes it all look so easy, but he used to put up a strong facade to not show his own vulnerabilities in public. “I was closed because of my childhood experiences,” he says. “I was always on guard to defend myself because I never knew where the next punch would come from.” But in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPVepzPA210" target="_blank">Walk Like a Girl,</a> Gurung comes to terms with his vulnerability, and bares his soul. It has not been easy, it took sustained will power and support from his mother, sister Kumudini and a circle of close friends. “I made unbelonging my power,” he says. “Nepal is where I still have my heart and soul. Nepal grounds you. It is where people go to find themselves. But I escaped.” Recently appointed vice-chair of the <a href="https://cfda.com/about-cfda" target="_blank">Council of American Fashion Designers</a>, Gurung says: “I can’t believe I am here, it feels like it is happening to someone else. Writing this book, the healing has finally begun.” <h2>‘Everything is better in color’</h2> The Met Gala was two weeks later, and my table was an example of everything I’d been fighting for all these years as my guests represented everything I believed in: dynamic, powerful, influential women who were unapologetically original and unabashedly graceful. I was grateful to Anna for inviting me to host and dress a table that reflected my ethos—and for her guidance in doing so. I was also aware of the privilege as one of the first-­ever Asian fashion designers—not just from Nepal, but from the entire continent— to get the opportunity to do so. That fact was not lost on me. I reached out beyond the expected Hollywood celebrities and well-­known socialites to curate a table of exceptional women who inspired me. I invited Deepika Padukone and Alia Bhatt for their first-­ever Met Galas, as well as Michelle Yeoh, Mindy Kaling, Camila Cabello, Ashley Park, Denée Benton, KiKi Layne, Quannah Chasinghorse, and Grace Elizabeth. Together we checked many boxes: Asian, Black, Latinx, and Indigenous, each woman undeniably chic and powerful, a dazzling array of skin tones and experiences that proved my decades‑in‑the-­making hypothesis: everything is better in color. Excerpt from Walk Like a Girl Viking © 2025 by Prabal Gurung  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250519170520_6b91d560e9f072c37d16876901058c073a51ffa05e7ad1b9461d19e1c9c28215.jpg" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="20250519170520_6b91d560e9f072c37d16876901058c073a51ffa05e7ad1b9461d19e1c9c28215" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Prabal Gurung book details NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250519170520_345240c21be400e2ce2ec629b52bd82bb53890e5bd86fe95b48340d84b5f1748.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="20250519170520_345240c21be400e2ce2ec629b52bd82bb53890e5bd86fe95b48340d84b5f1748" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Prabal Gurung book details NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;

Being Prabal Gurung by design

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
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