<figure><img width="1400" height="1050" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f2c9c7e80680e0b795djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>It has been four months since the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26">COP26 climate summit</a> in Glasgow during which the world’s leaders agreed to cut down carbon emissions to keep global average temperatures at well below 1.5 °Celsius.Since that conference, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">fossil fuel use</a> has increased again after the pandemic slowdown, planetwide heating have exceeded projected increases with the two polar regions experiencing record warm temperatures this month.    The United States and the European Union aim to reach <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/">carbon neutrality</a> by 2050, a target that may be brought forward because of the oil and gas price shock caused by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/">Ukraine war</a>.Nepal’s two neighboring countries both <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/">pledged to cut emissions</a> – India to net-zero by 2070, and China aiming to peak fossil fuel use before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In Glasgow, Nepal committed to start cutting carbon emissions from this year and be carbon negative by 2045, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-peace-in-post-conflict-countries-forest-cover/">halt deforestation and increase forest cover</a> to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/">45% by 2030</a>, and protect all high risk groups from the impacts of climate change in eight years.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/">Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi LamaThe first goal is likely to be affected by soaring oil prices due to the Ukraine war, the second to increase forest cover is achievable since Nepal already has 43% forest cover – it just needs to stop further deforestation. And the last goal has been criticised for being too vague.Nepal’s economy has been seriously impacted by the post-pandemic <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/">rise in fossil fuel use</a> which has coincided with a soaring petroleum import bill in the past month due to the Ukraine war.  Although the country committed to start reducing petroleum use by 2022, that is now not likely to happen.Nepal needs additional intermediate goals through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to guarantee effective de-carbonisation results, says Manjeet Dhakal, of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) support team at Climate Analytics.“It is important to look at the small steps needed to achieve the long-term goals,” says Dhakal. “How that can be achieved will depend on the target that Nepal has submitted prior to 2045 because these will help us achieve the ultimate net-zero target.”The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/">net-zero goal</a> is more like a “vision” or “a long term strategic commitment” that needs to be supplemented by specific interim targets, he explained. <figure><img width="1500" height="844" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f309c7e80680e0b795ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) report in February warned that the impact of atmospheric heating was widespread, pervasive and already irreversible in places, with people and the natural world <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/">suffering storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and heat waves</a>.Kathmandu itself saw the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/">highest average temperatures</a> ever recorded for March which was 5 Celsius above normal. And although the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/">wildfires season</a> this year has not been as serious as 2021, smoke from burning forests in the Central Tarai have darkened the sky across the country this week.The Nepal Disaster Report by the Ministry of Home Affairs says 80% of the country’s population is at risk from natural and climate-induced hazards.Besides adapting to the effects of the climate breakdown, Nepal also needs to reduce its reliance on petroleum not just to lessen its carbon footprint and meet Glasgow goals, but to cut its unaffordable petroleum import bill and cut the health risk from pollution. The Swiss group IQAir last week ranked Kathmandu as the sixth most polluted capital in the world.Read also:  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/">Nepal's greenwashing in Glasgow</a>, Rasmi BaskotaWhile progress has been made in new investment in hydropower and renewable energy giving Nepal a monsoon surplus in electricity, the country is still dependent on importing power from coal-fired thermal plants in India in the dry season.  On the bright side, experts suggest that the net-zero goal is possible if policies and regulations are implemented well in advance of the target date. Transportation makes up 20% of Nepal’s greenhouse gas emissions, and a switch to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-goes-electric-but-conditions-apply/">electric public transport</a> is now imperative not just to meet emission reduction targets but also to reduce urban air pollution.“There needs to be immediate action, careful planning, and coordination between various agencies of government,” says Bhushan Tuladhar, an environmental activist and board member of Sajha Yatayat which has placed a Rs3 billion order for 40 electric buses for Kathmandu, the first three of which will be delivered next month.Tuladhar says that because coordination between agencies is lacking, the environment is often not a priority. “But if immediate action and investment in clean public transportation is implemented right away, it is possible, but that is a big if,” he cautions. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f339c7e80680e0b795fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal could start meeting its own NDCs by picking the lowest-hanging fruit: switching to electric buses, two-wheelers and private cars.   Radha Wagle, joint secretary at the Ministry of Forests and head of its Environment Division was in the Nepal delegation in Glasgow, admits that the country’s commitment to net zero is ambitious: “We have made strong commitments, and some of them are conditional on financial aid, capacity enhancement, implementation support, and human resources.” In its second NDC in 2020, Nepal set a target to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/">increase sales of electric vehicles</a> to cover 90% of private passenger vehicles and 60% of public vehicles by 2030 to reduce petrol and diesel imports by nearly one-third. Nepal’s budget this year is Rs1.6 trillion but it has already imported Rs 100 billion worth of petroleum products in the past six months – 60% of all imports. With falling exports, remittances from Nepalis abroad and dropping foreign currency reserves, Nepal just cannot afford a bigger import bill. “Addressing climate change is not solving only the environmental issues,” said Dhakal, “there are a lot of economic opportunities. Shifting to clean energy makes a lot of sense. It creates jobs, cleans up the environment, and reduces imports. We have the resources, it is all about management.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/">Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally</a>, <a title="" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f379c7e80680e0b7960html.html" alt=""/></a>Raju Pandit Chhetri The number of vehicles in Nepal is increasing at around 14% annually, so energy security will be a strategic issue. Tuladhar says it will be particularly important to electrify buses to reduce fuel consumption by these vehicles that travel all day, and also reduce the demand for private vehicles. "This will require more incenstives for public transport operators to purchase electric buses and infrastructure such as charging stations," he adds.  Nepal’s main advantage is that it has the potential to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-nepal-budget-sparks-electric-comeback/">generate cheap hydropower</a> with which it can electrify the transport sector, replace LPG use with induction stoves. With new plants under construction, the country is expected to generate more than 3,500MW by 2030, which will exceed demand.   As an adviser to the chair of the LDC group at the <a href="https://unfccc.int/">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC) Manjeet Dhakal says Nepal’s priority must be hydropower-led growth. “Nepal is on track to graduate to middle-income status by 2025, but just one <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">climate-related catastrophe in the Himalaya</a> could jeopardise economic growth,” he warns.  Indeed, Radha Wagle  Nepal needs international support to help communities most vulnerable to climate-induced disasters to cope. “Our main challenges are financial resources, institutional capacity, and localised climate actions, and also a strong governance system,” she says. Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/">COPOUT at COP26</a>, Sonia Awale

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4 months after Glasgow, Nepal’s goals look iffy

<img width="640" height="481" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12869c7e80680e0a98dcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Youth climate activist Greta Thunberg calls COP26 in Glasgow the ‘Global North Greenwashing Festival.’ But it is also developing countries like Nepal that are using the occasion to make wild promises they are not serious about.
As a country that has taken a lead in championing the mountain agenda at climate summits, <a href="https://uk.nepalembassy.gov.np/statement-by-the-rt-hon-prime-minister-sher-bahadur-deuba-at-the-world-leaders-summit-during-the-26th-conference-of-parties-cop-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal</a> put forth three targets this week:
<ul><li>Remain 'cumulatively net zero carbon’ from 2022-2045' and become carbon negative after that. </li>
<li>Halt deforestation and increase forest cover to 45% by 2030</li>
<li>Ensure all vulnerable people are protected from climate change by 2030</li>
</ul>Individually and collectively, these targets do not mean anything. What is more, the Nepali delegation commended itself as the ‘highest climate ambition country’. Even if that was true, it would be for someone else to say that, not us.
The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forestry target</a> is more realistic: increasing the current 37% forest cover to 45% in the next nine years is attainable. But how can Nepal justify clearing the last tract of native tropical forest in the eastern Tarai that is a migration corridor for wild elephants by building a white elephant <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">airport at Nijgad</a>?
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal must save Nijgad Forest to receive climate funds</a>, Kashish Das Shrestha
Other infrastructure projects are undermining the success of community forestry, and Nepal is still reluctant in allowing private capital into climate action, and consequently the inclusion of private sector project developers.
Consumption and a throwaway plastic culture is growing in Nepal, recycling is almost non-existent, domestic aviation is flying high, and petroleum import is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">doubling</a> every few years.  Black carbon deposits from factories, vehicles and cooking are accelerating Himalayan melting and exacerbating a public health crisis from pollution. 
And the third point about Nepal’s claim that it will ensure all vulnerable people are ‘protected from climate change by 2030’ has dumbfounded most experts I have spoken to. How exactly are we going to protect them in the next nine years, from what? And what is the criteria by which we can judge that they have been ‘protected’?   
A footnote in Nepal’s press statement in Glasgow is that these targets are conditional upon financial support and Nepal’s goal to raise Rs250 billion. Oops. Given Nepal’s history of unwillingness to allow the flow of private capital into climate projects, this is very unlikely.
As COP26 host, the UK has gone into overdrive with media hype about the successes: the Global Methane Pledge, Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use.
Every day brings forth a new declaration. Countries are picking up on this convenient way to make pledges they know they will not have to fulfill on reducing carbon emissions.  From Saudi Arabia to Israel, India to China, ‘net-zero’ has become the next big thing. 
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/net-zero-is-not-zero/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Net Zero is not zero</a>, Maureen Santos and Linda Schneider
As a youth environmentalist, I am appalled by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">empty and reckless promises</a> being made at this make-or-break conference -- our last chance to save the planet from heating that will lead to societal upheaval, mass extinction, overflowing oceans and other calamities. 
While some see these commitments as a welcome sign that leaders are committed to transitioning to a carbon neutral world and implementing the Paris Agreement, the reality is different.
We need to phase out all fossil fuels by 2030 if we are to cap global temperature rise to 1.5. But national emission reduction ambitions do not reflect this. The fossil fuel lobby is prominently present in Glasgow, and national delegates have turned net-zero into political sloganeering, while ignoring the roadmap on net-zero put forth by the International Energy Agency. 
Climate change is a political agenda, but it is also a technical one. Ensuring a just and affordable transition to net-zero requires a global overhaul of the energy system while adopting a cross-sectional and integrated approach to addressing poverty. 
Sadly, COP26 presidency seems to have forgotten or completely ignored this. The newfound energy in enhancing climate ambition has dwarfed the real agenda of climate negotiations. Britain, as the cradle of the industrial revolution, has made dramatic national cutbacks, and wants desperately for Glasgow to deliver meaningful and realistic targets.
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate change is a disaster in Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi Lama
But negotiations on Article 6 are still contested and it seems unlikely that the Paris Rulebook will be adopted. Coal financing continues, negotiations on public climate finance and the $100bn target has not materialised.
Civil society plays a crucial role in ensuring climate action, ambition, and accountability. But twisting the truth about Nepal, and creating illusions is detrimental to action on climate that we must start taking. Inviting civil society to Glasgow and pretending to listen to them is a scam.
It is working: climate activists on Facebook are lauding the COP Presidency for helping Nepal make a bold pledge on an ambitious sets of targets. And when there is so much doom and gloom, even critics do not seem to want to speak against this ray of hope. 
This is not a COP to feel good about yourselves. It is not a COP to pawn our youth climate activists in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glasgow</a> to create the illusion of inclusion. It is not a COP for industrialised countries to now pin the blame for the climate crisis on the developing world, without putting their money where their mouths are.  
The hearts of the delegates in Glasgow may be in the right place, but their actions are not. This is not your COP. It is my future, so stop messing with it.
Read Also
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/back-to-glasgow-where-it-all-began/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Back to Glasgow where it all began,</a> Ajaya Dixit

Nepal’s greenwashing in Glasgow

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan