<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd3129c7e80680e08f94ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="641"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Along with poor quality of education, unaffordable healthcare, lack of safe drinking water, crumbling infrastructure, Nepalis have learnt not to expect anything from any government.So, even if they are seething inside, there is no visible outrage over the toxic air we are all forced to breathe.In 2019 alone, 42,100 people died directly of air pollution in Nepal. Residents of Kathmandu will have lifespans reduced by up to four years due to dirty air. Even unborn babies are affected by their mothers’ long-term exposure to pollutants.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611204654166000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEaqcXQ35101er4kLPkBXJlJSmXdw">Dirty air</a> has increased chronic respiratory diseases such as COPD, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-thickness-we-breathe/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-thickness-we-breathe/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611204654166000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGq-gT7u0iIkQAYH0Ttc3u9mspgSQ">asthma</a>, cancer, and cardiac arrest. Air quality in the capital is now so bad, Nepalis are becoming ‘pollution refugees’ – those emigrating to escape the poisonous air.Vehicular emissions, especially from diesel trucks and buses, make up 38% of pollutants in Kathmandu. There are nearly 1 million two-wheelers in Kathmandu that spew out deadly gases like carbon monoxide. Yet, the number of vehicles in the Valley is increasing at 22% a year. Nepal’s import of diesel has tripled in the past ten years.Annual emission tests are mandatory, but a green sticker <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/green-sticker-green-light-to-pollute/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/green-sticker-green-light-to-pollute/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611204654166000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGhwWcddEO6-dtGR64IhE9bPQHfvQ">can easily be bought</a>, and even home-delivered for the right price. There are no emission tests for vehicles like the breathalyser tests for drivers.A police campaign against drinking and driving brought down the number of traffic accidents all over Nepal by 90% in the past years, saving hundreds of lives. If driver exhalation can be checked for alcohol, why not vehicle exhaust for pollutants? Governance failure. Corruption.We know the causes of air pollution in Kathmandu Valley (vehicles, brick kilns, open fires, roadside dust, in that order). We know the solutions (emission checks, clean bricks, strict monitoring). It is not a lost cause to combat air pollution—all it needs is public pressure and the political will to implement known solutions.As clean air activist, Bhusan Tuladhar recalls in an interview with this week’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/breathing-is-hazardous-to-health/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/breathing-is-hazardous-to-health/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611204654167000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4_jlgvySosjc9eGQzXIBG6YC7ZQ">Saglo Samaj</a>, Kathmandu’s citizens rose up against diesel Vikram three-wheelers in the 1990s. The government responded by replacing them with battery-operated ones. When neighbourhoods barricaded killer kilns in Bhaktapur, the government forced them to adopt cleaner technology.Since transportation is the main culprit, Kathmandu’s answer to clean air is an efficient and reliable mass transit system. Even better: electric public transport. The state has accumulated Rs7 billion from the prevailing Clean Air Tax on fossil fuels, use that for a clean energy transition.But the government has been taking one step forward, two steps back. Prime Minister K P Oli announced two years ago that 20% of vehicles in Nepal would be battery-powered by 2020. But his finance minister Yubaraj Khatiwada re-imposed taxes on electric cars last year.Polluting brick kilns are back in operation, but those will be eventually driven out by urban sprawl. Real estate prices will make land in Kathmandu Valley more valuable for housing than clay-mining to fire bricks. The other big contributor to Kathmandu’s increasing pollution is open garbage burning. In winter, about 5% of solid waste in the Valley is burnt in the open. Municipalities must have a workable solid waste management plan, and impose hefty fines for open garbage burning.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611204654167000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWq5UP8P2EBdion6iA13A9x3Bi4g">Air pollution</a> in Kathmandu is a direct result of political failure. It shows a singular lack of accountability on the part of elected representatives to reducing it— even if they only did it to protect their own health.Air pollution is not just an environmental problem. When the Air Quality Index (AQI) hits 300 every day in winter, it is a public health emergency. It is an economic issue because it is proof that our economy is also going up in smoke. It is a political problem, and evidence that our democracy did not elect people who care for and protect citizens.The central government has failed miserably, it is the responsibility of mayors, metros and municipalities to step in. The Constitution has devolved decision-making to them, and they will be held responsible by the people if they fail to act.In summary, here are tried and tested solutions that all tiers of government can implement immediately:<ul><li style="font-weight: 400;">Invest in electric public transport, charging stations</li> 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Conduct effective emission tests, enforce compliance</li> 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Control open fires, manage and recycle solid waste</li> 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Promote cycling, clear footpaths for walking</li> 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Switch to clean bricks</li> 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Promote electric stoves</li></ul>Read also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/breathing-is-hazardous-to-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Breathing is hazardous to health</a>

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Polluted politics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221129121128/6385ed629c7e80680e0cc8d2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3501" height="1500"/><figcaption>Photos: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>The government has officially announced that the young woman who died in Dhulikhel Hospital on Saturday ten days after giving birth was Nepal’s first COVID-19 fatality.Although tests showed that she indeed was infected with the novel coronavirus, we do not know the true cause because she does not fit the demographics. There is no evidence yet that pregnant women or those who have just given birth are more prone to the illness.Could she, while being infected with COVID-19, have died of pulmonary embolism, or did she have fulminant pulmonary TB which is always a possibility in Nepal? Similar questions will be asked about the young Nepali worker who died in quarantine in Banke on Sunday soon after returning from India, the second to die of the coronavirus.The number of Nepalis testing positive for the novel coronavirus has now reached 291, with another 11 cases on Sunday from Rautahat. Overseas, 96 Nepalis have died of the virus, 77 of them women and 19 women. The majority of the deaths (63) were in UK, with 15 fatalities in the United States.COVID-19 continues its relentless global rampage, but it has also helped transform medicine in more positive ways.For example, patients with COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are literally breathing easier because of cleaner air. Anecdotally, they are using much less supplemental oxygen, or have even stored their oxygen machines for now. Asthma exacerbations also appear to be significantly less.Doctors had thought such relief for COPD patients was not possible. And they acknowledge that this may just be a temporary reprieve, as air pollution levels are sure to climb once the lockdown is lifted.If people continue to wear masks (even a simple cloth masks) and frequently wash hands with soap, it will help keep in check out not only COVID-19 but other chronic respiratory and gastro-intestinal infections.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/covid-19-revives-nepals-wash-drive/">COVID-19 revives Nepal's WASH drive</a>, Sonia AwaleThere is every likelihood that because of COVID-19 precautions, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589790313386000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvgzXMfy84xALGle9mNXH0RXx7og">doctors in Nepal will be seeing fewer patients with lung and stomach ailments</a> once the pandemic retreats. This would be similar to the dramatic drop in orthopedic injuries at hospital emergencies post-breathalyser testing in Nepal.There could be many before and after COVID-19 studies, especially pertaining to infectious diseases that may show these differences in stark relief.Interestingly, there are heated debates about the efficacy of masks even though Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan have clearly shown that masks are instrumental in slowing the spread of the virus. Pro-mask advocates in the United States (where wearing one is seen as a violation of personal liberty) are fighting back with colourful twitter hashtags like #wearafuckingmask.Together with physical distancing, hand washing and masks are practical ways to prevent against this virus, regardless of when the vaccine will be available. Unfortunately, no promising drug treatment seems to be on the horizon in the ongoing clinical trials.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/countries-cooperating-to-find-covid-19-cure/">Countries cooperating to find COVID-19 cure</a>, Buddha BasnyatAnother area that COVID-19 could change in medicine would be in diagnostics. The pandemic has revealed the importance of quick, reliable test kits for pre-existing biblical diseases that still plague countries like Nepal: tuberculosis, typhoid and typhus. These are some of the greatest killers in our part of the world and yet we have no quick reliable tests. Maybe COVID-19 will speed up the development of quick test kits for these disease too.The coronavirus crisis has also underlined the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19038#.XsDmP_8za70" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D19038%23.XsDmP_8za70&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589790313386000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE56RLoRySzMMticl6fCVZMtKP1sQ">importance of universal health care</a> which can save millions of poor in the poorest countries against catastrophic outbreaks.  Telemedicine, the importance of vaccines and properly conducted drug trials including other forms of medical research may now more clearly be understood, not only by health care professionals but the public at large.The other area of transformational change as a result of COVID-19, is in the  field of medical publications. There are more than 7,000 papers on the pandemic and many of them have published in pre-print sites like BioRxiv, MedRxiv, and Rxiv. Anyone can submit a paper and site managers will give a cursory look and decide to publish or not so that, if published, it is readily available to the world especially during the pandemic when speed and sharing of knowledge is of the essence.This is potentially hugely advantageous as scientists may be able to act on the findings and make a difference. These pre-prints can later be  subjected to the regular peer review process and be published in traditional journals which are slower, more secretive and cumbersome procedure.There is a down-side because unscrupulous scientists can make things up and publish in the pre-print format which has a greater chance of escaping the rigors of proper peer review. Indeed this is recently what happened.In January, Indian scientists claimed in BioRXiv that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589790313386000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJWl79SvZNky2BZ44-K7znpR1G9Q">novel coronavirus </a> was manufactured in the laboratory because there were strong similarities between the genetic sequence of HIV and SARS-CoV-2. However many well-known molecular researchers were strongly critical of the methodology in the Indian study, which was thought to be a hoax, and was eventually retracted.The pandemic turbocharged the pre-print process for research papers. Most scientists may not bother with the ossified ways of initial peer reviewing, even though there clearly are dangerous pitfalls.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/">Prevention while searching for a cure</a>, Buddha BasnyatBuddha Basnyat is a clinical researcher at Patan Academy of Health Sciences and a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589790313386000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJWl79SvZNky2BZ44-K7znpR1G9Q">frequent health columnist</a> for Nepali Times.

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Silver linings in the COVID cloud

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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Polluted politics

Silver linings in the COVID cloud

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal Election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138