<figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Wuhan-coronavirus-spread-worldwide-in-map-NT.jpg" data-elementor-open-lightbox="yes"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71a89c7e80680e0600e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1456" height="793"/><figcaption>The worldwide spread of the Wuhan coronavirus as of 31 January 2020.</figcaption>The ongoing outbreak of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-nepali-in-beijing-during-coronavirus-scare/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2019 novel coronavirus in China</a>, also called the Wuhan coronavirus, has now affected at least 17 countries. Approximately 6,000 cases have been reported with the majority being diagnosed in China.The total fatalities have crossed 130, a majority of them in the Hubei Province in which Wuhan is located. Nepal has reported its first confirmed case: of a student studying in China who had been visiting Nepal when diagnosed.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-nepali-in-beijing-during-coronavirus-scare/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Nepali in Beijing during coronavirus scare</a>, Rastraraj BhandariViruses of the coronavirus family have historically caused diseases of the respiratory tract in human populations worldwide. Recent outbreaks included the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2664#.XjFpRjIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002</a> and the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012. Both affected thousands of people and were fatal in some cases.SARS killed 10% of infected individuals while MERS was fatal in 37% of the infected population. The current fatality rate due to the Wuhan Coronavirus is 2.2%. If we are to describe this statistic in reverse, about 98 percent of those infected with this virus do not die.The question then is, why is there so much concern regarding this outbreak, given the relatively low mortality rate in comparison to previous coronavirus outbreaks?The first reason is that the <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wuhan coronavirus is ‘novel’.</a> This term is used in viral epidemiology to indicate a new strain, one which has not been detected previously in the population. Scientists therefore do not have adequate information regarding the characteristics of the virus to provide evidence-informed public health instructions on containment and treatment.Second, unlike SARS and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MERS</a>, this virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days and asymptomatic infected individuals can transmit the disease to others during that time. Even infected individuals who show improvement can continue to transmit the virus.The R0 (pronounced ‘r naught’) value of this virus is estimated at 3, meaning that an infected person on average will transmit to three other persons. This is considered a high infectivity number, but still lower than that of SARS or MERS.The Chinese authorities have put in place <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51236450" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strict measures in Wuhan</a> to try to contain the spread of the virus. However, this may not be enough as many infected individuals might have already traveled out of town by the time the measures were put in.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71ab9c7e80680e0600e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71ae9c7e80680e0600e4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101124/636b71b29c7e80680e0600e5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101124/636b71b69c7e80680e0600e6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427">                                              Photos: BIKRAM RAIWuhan has a population of 10 million, and many had begun to travel in advance of the Chinese New Year this week. Experts at Imperial College London have estimated infected population numbers to be already at around at 100,000.We can therefore expect more cases around the world as infected individuals travel and transmit the disease. However, once again, the question emerges of what the reported fatalities so far are among this large number of infected individuals. Could it be that the virus is spreading but not causing too many deaths?Nepal has seen regular outbreaks of respiratory diseases including seasonal influenza, ‘avian influenza’ and ‘swine flu’. The Nepali media often reports cases of ‘unknown viral disease’. The Nepal government had established screening centres for the coronavirus at airport and border checkpoints even before the first infected person was diagnosed in Tibet on Monday.The National Public Health Laboratory is working with private hospitals and laboratories to provide timely and accurate diagnostics of the Wuhan coronavirus with technical support from the World Health Organization (WHO).Cases are being referred to Sukraraj Tropical Infectious Diseases Hospital as the focal center and the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division is monitoring signs of possible outbreaks in country. The Ministry of Health and Population has directed all private hospitals around country to have ventilator supported ICUs to be on standby should those be required.The state mechanism appears to have learnt from weaknesses is showed during the SARS and H1N1 (swine flu) outbreaks of the past. However, accurate clinical diagnosis of this disease is going to be a challenge given the likelihood of infected individuals arriving at checkpoints showing no symptoms and because individuals infected with other viruses like influenza or other weaker strains may show similar symptoms as those infected by the Wuhan coronavirus.Screening is the only way of identifying the maximum number of cases entering the country and preventing those from infecting the population. There have been no further coronavirus infection cases reported in Nepal since 25 January. The first case, reported on that day, is so far the only one.Global media reporting of this outbreak has focused on fatality rather than recovery, and appears to have failed to notice that the WHO, with its expertise and access to data, has not yet declared the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency.The experience of having made the ‘premature and hasty’ decision to term the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) – or swine flu – outbreak a pandemic still being fresh, this time WHO has decided to monitor the situation closely before making any decision in this regard.The WHO has focused on China as a priority for action while observing rest of the world. This does not mean we can be complacent, as the threat of the virus mutating into a more severe form is real. However, it also does not help to panic. We need to look at the numbers, listen to experts in the field and move ahead accordingly.Sameer M Dixit is a public health research scientist at the <a href="http://www.cmdn.org.np/">Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101124/636b71b99c7e80680e0600e7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="126" height="145">

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panic

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71809c7e80680e0600d4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="1080"/><figcaption>Peking University campus on the 26th of January. Photo: MADISON PLASTER</figcaption></figure>For the past week, I have been in a voluntary lockdown in Beijing because of the rapid spread of the coronavirus in China. A trip to the supermarket to stock up on supplies felt like being in a post zombie apocalyptic breakout, not waiting for the infected to attack you but actively making a run when someone coughed or sneezed. Relying on homemade noodles, I am looking forward to flying out of Beijing soon with no knowledge on when I will be back as many universities in Beijing have requested students not to return until further notice.As seen in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92479/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92479/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3tSZYxe_Ww_d6Hv2DoRvSoKHD5Q">China’s 2002 SARS pandemic</a> that infected more than 5,300 people and killed 349 nationwide, the government has yet again relied on putting almost 50 million people in quarantine to contain the crisis. According to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2VoEvDEuxw" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DS2VoEvDEuxw&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxS4nKpuTtjHXhJHlS4zi-tjlDMQ">news</a> from the BBC, as on January 26th, the number of people killed in China has risen to 81 with almost 3,000 confirmed ill.Embassies continue to work for the wellbeing of their citizens, and neighbouring countries such as Mongolia and North Korea are reported to have <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/report-mongolia-closes-border-china-amid-virus-fears-68557875" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/report-mongolia-closes-border-china-amid-virus-fears-68557875&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE4MB58BpGrDibXc8rfZpEgAZtTvw">closed down borders</a> with China. Acknowledging the uniqueness and severity of the situation as people were traveling for Lunar New Year, the Chinese government has extended the Lunar New Year holidays and both public and private sectors are adding buffer time periods before things start moving business as usual.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71839c7e80680e0600d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="1500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Like many crises situations, there seems to be more unknowns than knowns. While Wuhan seafood market was initially believed to be the source of the novel virus, a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3MXldTizCebbsdGu1o3RPlNtrjw">new study</a> published in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/home" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/home&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSNtrH9F-1Q6aP25WKdl9kI4WfIw">The Lancet</a> of 41 hospitalised patients who had confirmed infections challenges that hypothesis. According to an <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFtb1KBIlj4mlVhbjLL_50gOHu5yQ">article published</a> in the <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://science.sciencemag.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFc4FOYJSQSQtW3Iv0WItiwgvZqLw">Science</a>, Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Georgetown, asserts that “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace.”Transparency from the government in reporting the crisis also continues to be questioned within and beyond China. While state run media channels such as CGTN are showing hundreds of medical personnel <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydphq5uA_Jg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3Dydphq5uA_Jg&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFO7K2xW_laJTA2asovWvLK4zJC1Q">voluntarily traveling to Wuhan</a> out of a sense of duty to the nation, and a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbA2PRYsakA" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DVbA2PRYsakA&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGV9x-Kx5xOlevsbCmyhYdOFFvrgw">wonderfully staged case</a> of people recovering from the virus and heading back home, people continue to question the legitimacy of the magnitude of the crisis as reported from the Chinese government.While <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92479/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92479/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3tSZYxe_Ww_d6Hv2DoRvSoKHD5Q">previous experiences suggest</a>, be it during the air pollution crisis in 2008 or the 2002 SARS pandemic, that China has not been the most transparent in reporting crisis, the rise in social media and the internet means that complete lack of transparency from the government might not be just impossible but also counterproductive.https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&amp;v=ydphq5uA_Jg&amp;feature=emb_logoBut in fleeing China for Nepal, I cannot question but wonder if I am safer in Beijing than I am in Nepal. A day after the first coronavirus case was confirmed in Nepal, two more suspected cases have emerged. While countries around the world are figuring out the best response mechanism to contain the crisis, Nepali authorities appear particularly unprepared.The Epidemiology and Disease Control Division reportedly chose not to speak to the media, in following the orders from the Ministry of Health.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71869c7e80680e0600d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1080" height="1440"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The rudimentary screening mechanisms alongside the lack of human resources and technology at the country’s only international airport needs no mention. And while China is <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-china-to-build-two-wuhan-hospitals-in-under-three-weeks-11917336" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-china-to-build-two-wuhan-hospitals-in-under-three-weeks-11917336&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHsoNgF7mWsi-yXGbB-mYgF5dsBeQ">building two health facilities</a> with enough space for around 2,300 patients over the next few weeks, the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku lacks even a <a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1219763/two-more-coronavirus-cases-suspected-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1219763/two-more-coronavirus-cases-suspected-in-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580228862390000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHBbq7QdxT_FH6WsvrO7kZzHAEVOQ">dedicated isolation ward</a>.It is disheartening to see fellow friends at university hear from their respective embassies whilst I was forwarded with a “do and don’t” list issued by the Nepal Embassy from a WeChat group. It is not that Nepali people expect a lot from their governments, but I can’t help but contemplate why I feel safer in the hotspot of a global pandemic than I would at my own home country.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbA2PRYsakA&amp;feature=emb_logoGrappling with this idea has been difficult, but it also serves as a reminder for the very reasons why we must continue to fight to contribute to the development of Nepal in every way possible.Rastraraj Bhandari is currently pursuing a Masters in Economics and China Studies at the Yenching Academy of Peking University in Beijing, China. <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71899c7e80680e0600d7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="175" height="173">

A Nepali in Beijing during coronavirus scare

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

coronavirus-scare

Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panic

A Nepali in Beijing during coronavirus scare

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Walking, working, worshipping in Patan