<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0c24b0ad905ca02f02djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1130" height="899"/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF NEPAL</figcaption></figure>Results from a recent nationwide survey show that more than half of Nepali households are at risk of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rise-in-poverty-due-to-covid-19-to-affect-children/">falling back into poverty</a> because of loss of jobs and income during 2020 due to the pandemic. And it is the children who are affected the most.This newspaper has been tracking the outcomes of these surveys that were conducted in May, July, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-impact-on-food-and-school-in-nepali-children/">August</a> and October. It is a sobering reminder that while the national leadership is engrossed in a fight to the finish in Kathmandu, the state has left Nepalis (especially the most vulnerable) to fend for themselves in dealing with the health and economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis.The surveys were conducted by <a href="https://www.sharecast.org.np/">Sharecast Initiative</a> for <a href="https://www.unicef.org/nepal/sites/unicef.org.nepal/files/2020-08/UNICEF%20Child%20and%20Family%20Tracker%20Survey.pdf">Unicef</a> and the last one in October involved a representative sample of 6,558 households with children all over the country.The most striking finding was that 42% of households in Nepal have no earnings at all, and a further 19% have a combined monthly family income of less than Rs10,000. This means the official figure for Nepal’s population living below the poverty line will need to be drastically revised.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0c54b0ad905ca02f02ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="763" height="491">The National Planning Commission’s 2014 survey of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115">Multidimensional Poverty Index</a> showed that the incidence of poverty had fallen from nearly <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/schooling-and-nutrition-poverty-in-nepal,1098">60% in 2006 to 28.6% in 2014</a> – largely because household incomes rose due to remittances. With the Covid crisis, Nepal’s poverty rate may have climbed back to the level 15 years ago at the end of the conflict.The Unicef survey shows that the incidence of household poverty during the Covid-19 crisis is spread unevenly through Nepal. For instance, the majority of those who remain in the ‘no earning’ category this year are from rural parts of Sudurpaschim and Lumbini Provinces. A quarter of them tend to be female-led households and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-face-of-hunger-debt-malnutrition,3604">10% were Dalit families.  </a>The survey shows a clear correlation between the pandemic-induced loss of income across Nepal. For example, the survey in May had shown that there were zero households with no earnings, or those making less than Rs10,000 a month. Strikingly, this figure went up to 49% in July, and even climbed to a high of 64% in August (See graphs).By October it had fallen to 42%+19% with income below Rs10,000 a month, and it is likely even lower for December. However, 45% of households were still reporting loss of income, and even those with jobs were earning less.The data shows that except for Karnali, all six other provinces reported a decrease in job loss from May to October, 2020. Province 2 showed a consistently high level of those who had lost livelihoods, and there was little improvement from August to October.  Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces had the lowest percentage of respondents reporting job losses since August.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0c74b0ad905ca02f02fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="772" height="530"><figcaption>Loss of jobs in May, July, August and October.</figcaption></figure>The coping mechanism for most of those slipping into poverty was to borrow, dig into savings, cut household expenditure, migrate, or rely on remittances. Disaggregated data showed that 61% of Dalit families were forced to borrow to survive, while only 48% of non-Dalit families had to borrow money to run the household, revealing that caste differences can also mean a class gap.Increased indebtedness will lead many households to fall deeper into poverty. Female-led households tend to borrow less, depend more on savings and remittances, the findings show.Nepal’s children bore the brunt of falling household incomes by being deprived of adequate food, health care and education. In August, 34% of parents cited ‘food’ among the top three needs of their children, and by October this had dropped to 30%, while children’s education rose from 35% to 45%.One in five families still say they have to struggle to feed their children. This proportion has remained the same since August, and hunger was more prevalent in Provinces 1, 2 and Lumbini. Inflation, and loss of income were cited as causes.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0c94b0ad905ca02f030jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="911" height="606">To a certain extent, educational needs of children appeared to be met in October with 81% of households saying that their children were involved in some form of studying – most of them at home. Less than 15% were attending physical classes, 22% were online. However, in Sudurpaschim and Province 2, a quarter of families said their children were not attending school at all.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0cc4b0ad905ca02f031jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="504">Survey results tend to be dry and impersonal. But behind each of these numbing numbers are untold stories of families and children abandoned by an uncaring state. Is it too much to hope that in 2021, Nepal’s rulers will take steps to reverse this neglect?

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Pandemic of poverty

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9dd9c7e80680e0878e4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1130" height="899"/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF NEPAL</figcaption></figure>Results from a recent nationwide survey show that more than half of Nepali households are at risk of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rise-in-poverty-due-to-covid-19-to-affect-children/">falling back into poverty</a> because of loss of jobs and income during 2020 due to the pandemic. And it is the children who are affected the most.This newspaper has been tracking the outcomes of these surveys that were conducted in May, July, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-impact-on-food-and-school-in-nepali-children/">August</a> and October. It is a sobering reminder that while the national leadership is engrossed in a fight to the finish in Kathmandu, the state has left Nepalis (especially the most vulnerable) to fend for themselves in dealing with the health and economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis.The surveys were conducted by <a href="https://www.sharecast.org.np/">Sharecast Initiative</a> for <a href="https://www.unicef.org/nepal/sites/unicef.org.nepal/files/2020-08/UNICEF%20Child%20and%20Family%20Tracker%20Survey.pdf">Unicef</a> and the last one in October involved a representative sample of 6,558 households with children all over the country.The most striking finding was that 42% of households in Nepal have no earnings at all, and a further 19% have a combined monthly family income of less than Rs10,000. This means the official figure for Nepal’s population living below the poverty line will need to be drastically revised.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9df9c7e80680e0878e5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="763" height="491">The National Planning Commission’s 2014 survey of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115">Multidimensional Poverty Index</a> showed that the incidence of poverty had fallen from nearly <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/schooling-and-nutrition-poverty-in-nepal,1098">60% in 2006 to 28.6% in 2014</a> – largely because household incomes rose due to remittances. With the Covid crisis, Nepal’s poverty rate may have climbed back to the level 15 years ago at the end of the conflict.The Unicef survey shows that the incidence of household poverty during the Covid-19 crisis is spread unevenly through Nepal. For instance, the majority of those who remain in the ‘no earning’ category this year are from rural parts of Sudurpaschim and Lumbini Provinces. A quarter of them tend to be female-led households and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-face-of-hunger-debt-malnutrition,3604">10% were Dalit families.  </a>The survey shows a clear correlation between the pandemic-induced loss of income across Nepal. For example, the survey in May had shown that there were zero households with no earnings, or those making less than Rs10,000 a month. Strikingly, this figure went up to 49% in July, and even climbed to a high of 64% in August (See graphs).By October it had fallen to 42%+19% with income below Rs10,000 a month, and it is likely even lower for December. However, 45% of households were still reporting loss of income, and even those with jobs were earning less.The data shows that except for Karnali, all six other provinces reported a decrease in job loss from May to October, 2020. Province 2 showed a consistently high level of those who had lost livelihoods, and there was little improvement from August to October.  Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces had the lowest percentage of respondents reporting job losses since August.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9e19c7e80680e0878e6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="772" height="530"><figcaption>Loss of jobs in May, July, August and October.</figcaption></figure>The coping mechanism for most of those slipping into poverty was to borrow, dig into savings, cut household expenditure, migrate, or rely on remittances. Disaggregated data showed that 61% of Dalit families were forced to borrow to survive, while only 48% of non-Dalit families had to borrow money to run the household, revealing that caste differences can also mean a class gap.Increased indebtedness will lead many households to fall deeper into poverty. Female-led households tend to borrow less, depend more on savings and remittances, the findings show.Nepal’s children bore the brunt of falling household incomes by being deprived of adequate food, health care and education. In August, 34% of parents cited ‘food’ among the top three needs of their children, and by October this had dropped to 30%, while children’s education rose from 35% to 45%.One in five families still say they have to struggle to feed their children. This proportion has remained the same since August, and hunger was more prevalent in Provinces 1, 2 and Lumbini. Inflation, and loss of income were cited as causes.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9e49c7e80680e0878e7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="911" height="606">To a certain extent, educational needs of children appeared to be met in October with 81% of households saying that their children were involved in some form of studying – most of them at home. Less than 15% were attending physical classes, 22% were online. However, in Sudurpaschim and Province 2, a quarter of families said their children were not attending school at all.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9e69c7e80680e0878e8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="504">Survey results tend to be dry and impersonal. But behind each of these numbing numbers are untold stories of families and children abandoned by an uncaring state. Is it too much to hope that in 2021, Nepal’s rulers will take steps to reverse this neglect?

<figure></figure> <img width="1500" height="946" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed514b0ad905ca02eedajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption> The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Secretariat meeting on 1 December coincided with Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel’s birthday. Prime Minister K P Oli kicked off the meeting by feeding a slice to Poudel, who took off his mask for the purpose. Other Secretariat members took turns to do the same.‘Let them eat cake,’ seems to be the motto of the NCP. Instead of discussing response to the rising death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic nationwide, or the threat posed by the rise of the Hindu-right, the meeting was an extension of the power struggle between factions led by Oli and his party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal. <figure></figure> <img width="2048" height="1365" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed544b0ad905ca02eedbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli feeding a slice of cake to Bishnu Poudel at the start of a ruling NCP Secretariat meeting on Tuesday that degenerated into personal mud-slinging. Photos: PMO</figcaption> The meeting kicked off, but soon degenerated into a shouting match between Oli and Dahal. Nepali media got hold of a recording of what was said, and the transcript is not for the faint-hearted. As the temperature inside the Baluwatar meeting hall rose, the gathering was put off till the next day.However, on Wednesday Prime Minister Oli failed to attend. Ahead of the meeting Poudel, who is Oli’s close confidante, had a word with Dahal saying the prime minister wanted more time. The meeting then ended with the announcement to reconvene on Saturday, 5 December. <figure></figure> <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed574b0ad905ca02eedcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli kept away from Wednesday’s NCP Secretariat meeting, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal rescheduled it for Saturday, followed the next day with a Standing Committee meeting.</figcaption> This gave Oli three more days to come up with a strategy to defuse the challenge to his authority. Party insiders say that the anti-Oli faction led by Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal are now in the mood to press on him to step down not just from either the party chair or prime ministership, but both positions.Sensing this, Oli is buying time. While Dahal was holding the NCP Secretariat meeting at Baluwatar on Wednesday, Oli was holed up with advisers in another part of the prime minister’s residence, discussing his next move.The latest bout in this long-drawn duel involved the two party chieftains hurling written statements against each other. In response to Dahal’s 19-page salvo on 13 November, Oli drafted a voluminous 38-page anti-missile missile on 28 November. Wednesday’s meeting was supposed to discuss the two documents in which the top two leaders hurled accusations at each other.Oli was said to be waiting for the arrival from Butwal of his main ally, Lumbini Province Chief Minister Shankar Pokhrel to plan his strategy. Pokhrel is in support of getting both leaders to withdraw their accusatory documents, and draft a new joint statement that will patch up the long-running dispute once and for all.Party insiders on both sides admit that the differences are not insurmountable – they just stem from the perception in the Dahal-Nepal faction that Oli has not given them due respect and their loyalists key appointments. But they admit that it is now a clash of egos between the two alpha males, and there is too much bad blood to settle it amicably.Sensing that his rivals now want him removed from both posts with a vote of no confidence in the Parliamentary Party, Oli is said to be considering a range of options that are (in order of extremeness): splitting the party and forming a coalition with the opposition Nepali Congress, appointing a trusted ‘young turk’ to prime ministership and stepping down, wooing off Nepal, Jhanath Khanal or Bam Dev Gautam to his side by offering them coveted cabinet or backing for party posts in the NCP convention, or  patching up with rivals by agreeing to a joint declaration.Oli is said to have told one confidante this week: “If I am forced to step down, I will pass the prime ministership to a younger generation leader like Subhas Nembang.”The NCP has called a Standing Committee meeting now on 6 December, and it is expected to be a decisive one. Prime Minister Oli still has some trump cards up his sleeves to divide the Dahal camp, and he is expected to use them.

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Let them eat cake

<figure></figure> <img width="1500" height="946" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6329c7e80680e087791jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption> The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Secretariat meeting on 1 December coincided with Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel’s birthday. Prime Minister K P Oli kicked off the meeting by feeding a slice to Poudel, who took off his mask for the purpose. Other Secretariat members took turns to do the same.‘Let them eat cake,’ seems to be the motto of the NCP. Instead of discussing response to the rising death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic nationwide, or the threat posed by the rise of the Hindu-right, the meeting was an extension of the power struggle between factions led by Oli and his party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal. <figure></figure> <img width="2048" height="1365" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6359c7e80680e087792jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli feeding a slice of cake to Bishnu Poudel at the start of a ruling NCP Secretariat meeting on Tuesday that degenerated into personal mud-slinging. Photos: PMO</figcaption> The meeting kicked off, but soon degenerated into a shouting match between Oli and Dahal. Nepali media got hold of a recording of what was said, and the transcript is not for the faint-hearted. As the temperature inside the Baluwatar meeting hall rose, the gathering was put off till the next day.However, on Wednesday Prime Minister Oli failed to attend. Ahead of the meeting Poudel, who is Oli’s close confidante, had a word with Dahal saying the prime minister wanted more time. The meeting then ended with the announcement to reconvene on Saturday, 5 December. <figure></figure> <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6399c7e80680e087793jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli kept away from Wednesday’s NCP Secretariat meeting, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal rescheduled it for Saturday, followed the next day with a Standing Committee meeting.</figcaption> This gave Oli three more days to come up with a strategy to defuse the challenge to his authority. Party insiders say that the anti-Oli faction led by Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal are now in the mood to press on him to step down not just from either the party chair or prime ministership, but both positions.Sensing this, Oli is buying time. While Dahal was holding the NCP Secretariat meeting at Baluwatar on Wednesday, Oli was holed up with advisers in another part of the prime minister’s residence, discussing his next move.The latest bout in this long-drawn duel involved the two party chieftains hurling written statements against each other. In response to Dahal’s 19-page salvo on 13 November, Oli drafted a voluminous 38-page anti-missile missile on 28 November. Wednesday’s meeting was supposed to discuss the two documents in which the top two leaders hurled accusations at each other.Oli was said to be waiting for the arrival from Butwal of his main ally, Lumbini Province Chief Minister Shankar Pokhrel to plan his strategy. Pokhrel is in support of getting both leaders to withdraw their accusatory documents, and draft a new joint statement that will patch up the long-running dispute once and for all.Party insiders on both sides admit that the differences are not insurmountable – they just stem from the perception in the Dahal-Nepal faction that Oli has not given them due respect and their loyalists key appointments. But they admit that it is now a clash of egos between the two alpha males, and there is too much bad blood to settle it amicably.Sensing that his rivals now want him removed from both posts with a vote of no confidence in the Parliamentary Party, Oli is said to be considering a range of options that are (in order of extremeness): splitting the party and forming a coalition with the opposition Nepali Congress, appointing a trusted ‘young turk’ to prime ministership and stepping down, wooing off Nepal, Jhanath Khanal or Bam Dev Gautam to his side by offering them coveted cabinet or backing for party posts in the NCP convention, or  patching up with rivals by agreeing to a joint declaration.Oli is said to have told one confidante this week: “If I am forced to step down, I will pass the prime ministership to a younger generation leader like Subhas Nembang.”The NCP has called a Standing Committee meeting now on 6 December, and it is expected to be a decisive one. Prime Minister Oli still has some trump cards up his sleeves to divide the Dahal camp, and he is expected to use them.

<figure><img width="2048" height="1282" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1af9c7e80680e083e61jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>With the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/">pre-winter resurgence of Covid-19</a> around the world and in Nepal, pressure is mounting on governments to procure vaccines to protect their populations.
Last week, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal government set up a committee</a> of secretaries of the Finance, Home, Health and Foreign Affairs ministries to study vaccines under development as well as procedures to procure them. But Nepal is far behind other countries, which have already ‘booked’ their future supplies.
On Wednesday President Bidya Devi Bhandari signed an ordinance empowering the government to import Covid-19 vaccines from international pharmaceutical companies, and to use them even if they are authorised only for emergency use.
<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">VAX POPULI</a>, Sonia Awale
However, there is no effective strategy to ensure vaccines for all as distribution in Nepal comes with the challenge of taking it to poor and remote corners of the country. Experts fear that even when the vaccines become available, the campaign will be plagued by the same socio-economic inequities that afflict the medical sector.
“We need to immediately start identifying vulnerable groups like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">frontline health workers</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spared-at-first-elderly-hit-hard-by-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the elderly</a> or those with comorbidities to prioritise for immunisation,” says Bikash Gauchan, a physician at Bayalpata Hospital in the under-served western district of Achham.
“We also need to set up proper cold chain facilities across the country as soon as possible and have a well thought out distribution plan so that when the vaccine does arrive, we can hit the ground running,” he adds.
The silver lining is that Nepal already has a successful <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/polio-hunt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">childhood immunisation</a> network that has successfully mobilised <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Female Community Health Volunteers</a>, and they can deliver vaccines to the homes of the elderly who cannot make it to clinics. Monitoring the follow-up second dose for some of the vaccines will be crucial, although Nepal’s health system has experience with maintaining a cold chain for other campaigns.
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-diaspora-hit-by-covid-surge/">Nepali diaspora hit by Covid surge</a>, Nepali Times
Despite recent breakthroughs in trials (see box) public health experts stress the importance of exploring vaccine supply options closer to home. As of now, 11 vaccines developed in several parts of the world are in the third phase of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/countries-cooperating-to-find-covid-19-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clinical trials</a> with many of them expected to be as effective.
Neighbouring China and India are at the forefront. And Nepal should have begun its ‘vaccine diplomacy’ much before this to secure its supply of shots.
There is also the uncertainty of vaccine efficacy depending on the strain: the same vaccine could be highly effective against people in the West but not as much in South Asia where people suffer from chronic malnutrition and multiple infections.
“For a working vaccine to be made within a year is an amazing victory for science but we also need to know that these vaccines are designed for their population. So I’d want to know more about the vaccines in India and China,” says Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “Particularly China, as it was where the pandemic started but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-nepal-can-learn-from-china-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has since controlled it effectively</a> unlike rest of the world.”
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-the-chloroquine-scam/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Basnyat</a> of the Patan Academy of Health Sciences agrees. He says: “China looks at the reality in our backyard. So a more suitable vaccine for us could come from the Chinese, particularly because they have a track record of having developed better vaccine for this part of the world.”
Indeed, the JEVAX made by the researchers in Chengdu is now the most widely used jab against Japanese Encephalitis because it’s more cost effective compared to its western vaccines.
Nepal Health Research Council is once again considering conducting Phase III clinical trial of Coronavac by China’s Sinovac Biotech after an initial divided opinion over its safety. The vaccine has shown quick immune response in mid-stage trials in South America and parts of Asia.
In India, The Serum Institute has anticipated demand by already manufacturing 40 million doses of AstraZeneca’s potential Covid-19 vaccine. It will also soon manufacture Novavax.
Similarly, researchers at the Indian Institute of Science have designed a protein-based heat-tolerant vaccine that can stay stable for a month at 37°C, and could endure temperatures as high as 100°C if freeze dried, a feature that could be a game changer for mass vaccination campaigns in lower and middle income countries in Asia and Africa.
The other factor to consider will be the duration of the immunity after each vaccine shot, as well reinfection groups and if antibodies developed in the first episode helps fight the mutated forms of the virus.
With Covid-19 crisis continuing to spread rapidly across Nepal and at 10 fatalities per million population (same as Pakistan and much higher than China’s 3), it is not too early to start dialogue with Gavi, the vaccine alliance, COVAX and agencies like the World Bank and World Health Organisation to help procure the most cost effective approach to vaccines most suitable to Nepal’s conditions.
Alternatively, many pharmaceutical companies will want to play the field in order to boost their profile. In fact, embassies and foreign donors are already hard at work pushing for trails and deals.
“There is bound to be vaccine politics and it will mostly likely be ugly,” predicts Sher Bahadur Pun of the Health Ministry. “But we should not lose track of two things: efficacy of the vaccine against our population and its economic viability. If we do that we should be on the right path, more or less.”
In all this excitement, Nepal’s health authorities must also keep an eye on the plight of infected people and many more to come as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">they wait for a vaccine</a>. The results of current treatment regimens ranging from plasma therapy to administering Remdesivir have been patchy. And as scientists study the long-term impact of Covid-19 on patients even after they recover, making an optimal use of resources becomes even more significant.
So far, the government has been faulted for squandering months of lockdown, not carrying out sufficient tests and contact tracing, not increasing hospital capacity and equipment, and letting the people fend for themselves.  
The result is that Nepal is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heat-map-of-nepals-covid-19-hotspots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suffering a sustained surge</a>, with more than 1,400 new cases a day, over 60% of them in Kathmandu Valley alone and a quarter of those tested coming out positive. There is also a surge in symptomatic patients, even among those without pre-existing conditions, and those sick enough to require ICU and ventilator.
Even when the government does act, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coronavirus-coordination-committee-doesnt-coordinate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">priorities seem to be misplaced</a>. For instance, health experts say the emphasis in the past months should have been on high flow oxygen therapy or High Dependency Units rather than Intensive Care Units in hospitals.
“It would have been cheaper, it does not require highly trained staff or sophisticated equipment, and it would have freed up the ICUs for the really critical patients,” adds Pun, who himself is at the Health Ministry, and this possibly means his advice is not being taken.
Insiders say it will likely take upwards of six months for the first vaccines to arrive in Nepal, and there will be a rush by the rich, the powerful and those with political connections to get their shots. The marginalised, poor, those in remote areas will be the last to get their injections, unless the government has fair and effective rules in place and implements them.
Till then, there is little else to do than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/silver-linings-in-the-covid-cloud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">keep masking up this winter, avoid large gatherings, keep distance and wash hands regularly</a>.
Says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Buddha Basnyat</a>: “The mask is the best vaccine we have at the moment. These safety measures have largely reduced hospitalisation due to other infections in 2020, masks in particular will also protect us from winter pollution in the coming months.”<h2>The Vaccine Race</h2>The global resurgence of Covid-19 in the northern winter has coincided with breaking news every day of successful new vaccine trials.First the Russians announced a vaccine in September that is 92% potent against SARS-CoV-2.  Last week Pfizer unveiled a 90% effective vaccine, which on Wednesday was upgraded to 95% efficacy without side effects. Moderna was next with an efficacy of 95%, and not needing extreme refrigeration. More companies in China, India and Europe are conducting their own trials.Public health experts have hailed the developments, but warn that vaccines will not be universally available till late 2021 and even so will not provide full protection. They suggest continuing with masking up, keeping distance and avoiding crowded indoor places.Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech’s mRNA-based vaccine came out declaring over 90% effectiveness but only at -70°C ultra cold chain which will be a challenge even for countries with the best health facilities in the world.Massachusetts-based Moderna’s RNA shot has 94.5% efficacy, seems to also prevent severe infections and remains stable in medical and home refrigerators for up to 30 days, in freezers (-20°C) for up to six months, and at room temperature for up to 12 hours.Even so, poorer countries are unlikely to get coronavirus vaccine any time soon. Even the biggest pharmaceutical multinationals can only manufacture a limited quantity of the vaccine over the next year.Pfizer has capped its production at 1.4 billion for 2021, 80% of which has already been booked through advance purchase agreement by the US, UK, EU, Canada and Japan. Moderna expects to manufacture 20 million doses this year and up to one billion in 2021.On the other hand, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sputnik-v-vaccine-mystery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russian’s Sputnik V</a> has been overshadowed by new developments, and due to lack of sufficient data to back up its claim of 92% efficacy. Although geopolitical rivalry with the West has given it negative publicity, some health agencies have not ruled it out.

Sonia Awale

When will Nepal’s Covid vaccine turn come?

<figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb36d9c7e80680e07bb3fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>On 5 September, India tallied a record 90,600 new cases of the novel coronavirus in a single day – more than any other country since the pandemic began. India will soon overtake Brazil to have the second-highest caseload after the United States.India’s National Statistical Office revealed last week that the country’s output between April and June 2020 was 24% lower than in the same period the previous year. This was the first time India had recorded a quarter of negative growth since it began issuing such data publicly in 1996.No other big economy has by shrunk so much during the pandemic. In the same period, the GDP of the United States fell by just over 9%. What had seemed a dismal economic performance by India in 2019, has been overshadowed by what the pandemic has done. And there is little sign of recovery, both in terms of the economy and a slowdown of the Covid-19 spread.India’s lockdown in late March at only four hours’ notice was arguably too soon (although some would regard it as prescient) and too unselective. The ban on commercial activity and movement outside the home was nearly total for two months.India was even less prepared than many. It had fewer than 1 hospital bed per 1,000 people when the epidemic started -- South Korea had more than 16 times as many. Around 140 million people were thrown out of work, and millions of urban workers felt obliged to return home, usually on foot, to their villages where often they were unwelcome.The only silver lining is that the number of recorded deaths in India due to SARS-CoV-2 infections is lower than expected – the country’s 3.8 million detected cases have given rise to ‘only’ 70,679 as of 5 September. This is low rate by global standards. It is possible that many deaths have gone unreported, but the results of blood serum surveys suggest that, in India’s crowded cities at least, a relatively high proportion of people may have now been infected, survived and have immunity. Antibodies were found in 41% of samples collected in Mumbai in July, and nearly 57% in slum areas. They were also found in 23% of tests in Delhi in June and more than 28% in August. <img width="968" height="1070" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3719c7e80680e07bb40jpeg.jpg" alt="">All this has direct bearing on Nepal, as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-india-peaks-covid-19-spreads-rapidly-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-india-peaks-covid-19-spreads-rapidly-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJC0orFU_5TiZpPHV4NiwUYjObyA">this paper reported recently</a>. The virus is now spreading in the community in Nepal, and closing the border will not stop transmission.  The rapid spread of the virus in India and the lockdown had a big impact on millions of Nepalis living and working in India. When they lost their jobs, they felt impelled, like so many of their Indian fellow workers, to return to their villages in April-May. Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHiKIHR6apbKK79PXME1_hheaEBiw">imported the virus willy-nilly</a> as the migrants crossed the border and fanned out across the country. As most Nepalis returnees travelled by road or rail, rather than by air, stopping international air travel was largely irrelevant as regards this particular influx. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3739c7e80680e07bb41jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Attempts to control the border, and quarantine the returnees have proven largely unsuccessful. This is in part because of the lack of resources and/or incompetence of the local authorities (given the very limited federalisation of funds and powers allocated to the new states) and in part because the border between India and Nepal is porous.The virus therefore was carried to many different parts of the country,  evading effective control at an early stage and ‘seeding’ a number of local outbreaks. The limited capacity of public facilities at the local level to respond effectively to such outbreaks, except by lockdown, has delayed or even prevented proper treatment of those infected and becoming seriously ill. It has also adversely affected local economies, and thus <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdZp06C9oR3pf9T5f4o1IReNNcew">the national economy.</a>Nepal’s economy has, in any case, but hard hit by the restrictions on international and domestic travel and transport, and by relatively unselective and arguably draconian lockdown measures. These have together devastated certain sectors – notably tourism, transport and the hospitality and entertainment business, and led to a serious increase in unemployment.Many returning migrant workers will have brought money back with them, which will have helped those families and local communities to which they have returned. Many who came back from India are now going back there because they have run out of savings, and have no jobs in Nepal.Nearly 80,000 Nepali workers have flown back from the Gulf, Malaysia and other countries. And as those destination countries also try to control the epidemic, the flow of remittances is bound to diminish in the coming months.After the lifting of the lockdown led to a surge of Covid-19 nationwide, and now Kathmandu Valley, the government re-imposed restrictions in 48 districts out of 77 districts.The total 45,277 cases remains relatively low in comparison with many other countries of the same size of population. The number of deaths at 280 is also comparatively small. The UK, which has more than double of Nepal’s population, for example, the total number of cases is now roughly 340,000 and the number of recorded deaths at 46,000.Nepal’s early peak (in April in Nepal) has been followed, first by a decline to a level comparable to the early days of the outbreak (in July in Nepal), and then by a resurgence following a lifting of the lockdown to a point where now the average daily figure for the number of cases tops 1,000.The omens are not good. The epidemic is clearly not under control, and it is not evident that a total or widespread lockdown is likely to provide anything more than another temporary respite.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvT3ucTgMvl01bXjSQdR_hEqs8KA">only strategy that is likely to succeed</a> in the medium term is one in which both the basics of maintaining physical distance, wearing masks and washing hands thoroughly are emphasised in all advice and are duly followed by all the population.A universal test and trace approach also needs to be adopted, combined with a ‘cat and mouse’ (what PM Boris Johnson referred to as ‘whack-a-mole’) strategy of selective lockdown, test and trace in the case of local outbreaks, to ‘hit’ the virus hard when it re-appears.In the long run, the main hopes are:<ol><li>Increasing numbers of those infected will recover and gain immunity, creating a sufficient ‘critical mass’ of immune people, to reduce the ‘R’ rate to a minimum</li><li>The virus will mutate to become less virulent</li><li>Treatments will lead to a significant decline in cases of seriously ill people and numbers dying</li><li>A vaccine or vaccines will be available to a majority of the population to raise immunity and reduce the chances of becoming seriously ill.</li></ol>David Seddon is author of Nepal in Crisis: Growth and Stagnation in the Periphery and The Struggle for Basic Needs in Nepal, Nepal - A State of Poverty, and co-author of The People’s War.

India and Nepal in Covid-19 crisis together

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

On Saturday, Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar, a region where there are an estimated 2 million Nepalis working to send money home. In addition, thousands of Nepalis were preparing to board flights to Kathmandu from West Asian cities this weekend to vote in the 5 March election. Many are said to be stranded at various aviation hubs. A Qatar Airways flight from Doha took off just before the air space was closed, while Air Arabia and Kuwait Airways have diverted or cancelled flights. Nepalis in the West Asian region said things were relatively calm where they were, although some heard loud explosions at about noon local time. In Dubai, some thought they were Ramadan fireworks.&nbsp; In Kuwait, nearly 2,000 Nepalis working in the US military base as security guards and cleaners were evacuated before the strikes. In Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet naval base is located and which was hit by two Iranian missiles, workers contacted by Nepali Times said the situation was under control and the authorities had told everyone to stay indoors and not use highways. The conflict also coincided with the beginning of Nepal’s trekking and mountaineering season, and tourists were either on their way or planning to leave European and North American cities for Himalayan hikes. Most of them transit through Doha, Dubai or Kuwait and all three airports are closed. Turkish Airlines flights via Istanbul are still operating.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97" data-rendition-name="original" width="1864" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Qatar and UAE airspace closed"> <figcaption>Qatar and UAE airspace closed. Credit: Flightradar24</figcaption> </figure>  However, the main impact for the world could be a spike in the price of petroleum products if the strategic Strait of Hormuz is blocked. China relies on Iranian oil for their refineries, and Nepal could be affected indirectly if the economies of its neighbours are hit. Nepal imports all its diesel, petrol, LPG and aviation fuel from India which sources it mainly from the Gulf, and until recently from Russia. Petroleum makes up 25% of the value of all imports, and that is more than Nepal earns from all its exports. Saudi Arabia this year overtook the UAE as the main destination for Nepali workers, with the number now totalling 400,000. There are said to be as many in the UAE, and another 350,000 in Qatar. There are another 100,000 mostly women in Kuwait, and 50,000 each in Oman and Bahrain.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="West Asia Iran conflict"> <figcaption>Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar on Saturday.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal receives nearly $11 billion a year in remittances from overseas Nepalis (not counting India) through official channels, although the total is said to be much more. &nbsp;This makes up more than a quarter of Nepal’s GDP equivalent — one of the highest proportions in the world. More than half of the overseas remittances to Nepal comes from its workers in the Gulf, and it is the mainstay of the country’s economy. Nepalis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE alone send home more than $3 billion a year, much of that helping support their families back home. An average Nepali worker in the Gulf sends home nearly $2,500 a year, and this is spent mainly for household supplies, children’s education and healthcare. There are also an estimated 7,000 Nepali caregivers and healthcare workers in Israel, and most of them are women. The Nepal Embassy has asked Nepalis in Israel to take caution and move to bomb shelters.

West Asia war and Nepalis

If you did not watch the understated movie उनको स्विटर / (The Woolen Sweater) after it was released in May last year, you missed a major turning point in Nepali cinema. Much-hyped films fall short of expectations, but here is an exquisitely acted and directed production with a strong underlying message of tolerance. What a contrast from formulaic melodramatic Kollywood fare — a love story so simple, cinematography so subtle in capturing the beauty of the monsoon on mountain pastures, and a background folk song accompaniment that evokes the flavour and tenor of multi-ethnic eastern Nepal. Since its release, Unko Sweater received praise in Nepal, but it was in multiplexes across Nepaliphone India where the movie became a rage. Positive reviews spread by word of mouth on social media, where the script, performance and camera work were praised for reflecting a genuine and unsullied rural Nepal. The movie is a layered portrayal of caste, ethnicity, gender and culture with the tender romance between the shy Dharanidhar Kafle (Bipin Karki) and Phool Gurung (Miruna Magar) in which the two, despite being soulmates, have to deal with societal norms and gossip. They do this without rebelling, in their own quiet way. In the first scene in a crowded jeep, people are seen discussing an election. An elderly greying Kafle is headed home, and the rest of the movie has back and forth flashbacks revealing the story of his unspoken affection for Phool. But there is an undercurrent of ethnic rigidity. When Kafle’s brother Dambar elopes with Iksha Limbu, the repercussions are borne by both families. Then Kafle’s uncle is banished for being an outcast.&nbsp; Miruna Magar as Phool, as an ebullient woman, is in contrast to the introverted Kafle, who does not say much but has a melodious singing voice. As the plot thickens, Kafle is shown to be bound by circumstances that pose obstacles to his love for Phool. The storyline delicately shows how life and situations constantly force people to shift direction. Despite underlying differences, the various castes and ethnicities in this fictitious village near the Sikkim border get along because they have to. There is an interdependence between highland farmers and other ethnicities living down the valley that is at the heart of Nepal’s ethnic harmony. Despite taboos about interethnic and intercaste relationships, people still have trust and faith amongst each other. There is no time reference to the story, but it does speak of a nostalgic era decades ago when rural Nepal was not yet connected by roads and phones, when people had no choice but to get along. Things have changed now with outmigration, and education has blurred ethnic lines. A QUIET LOVE Director Nabin Chauhan is not in your face with his message, giving viewers a hint of deep rooted traditional values that still govern society. Each character adds to the storyline, validating the way they behave, pushing the plot forward.&nbsp; There are many emotions that are intricately woven into the plot, and the most prominent, of course, is love. Not the showy, lustful way it is shown in flamboyant formula films, but a quiet bond that does not need words, a silence, a glance and a gesture conveying the universe of love. When Phool asks Kafle what he will do if they cannot be together, he says he will build her a house with a beautiful garden of flowers in the meadows where he herds livestock. He builds it awaiting her return, while Phool knits him a sweater, the symbol of their interwoven love. In screenings of the film in Nepal and India, there has not been a dry eye in the audience. The background score and music by Kobid Bazra and the powerful rendition by Jhuma Limbu of the ‘Kafle’ strike a strong chord. The cinematography by Chintan Rajbhandari does not glamourise Nepal’s rural landscape, it is shown in its raw misty beauty as a constant backdrop. The viewer is uplifted by the notion that love transcends social restrictions and orthodoxies.&nbsp; The ending is left deliberately unfinished, possibly to make way for a sequel which we can only hope will be as compelling as उनको स्विटर. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260301060348_42480e8b6934c9a5c518c44c2970748b341bbbf290c2b303b6aa6359d883567b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260301060348_42480e8b6934c9a5c518c44c2970748b341bbbf290c2b303b6aa6359d883567b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="560" loading="lazy" alt="Unko Sweater"> </figure>  उनको स्विटर / (The Woolen Sweater) Artmandu Nepal, 2025 Directed by Nabin Chauhan 145 minutes Available now on YouTube <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lCgtmgiII7M?si=MirwKOwKmxE3jLS6" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

covid-19-crisis

Pandemic of poverty

Pandemic of poverty

Let them eat cake

Let them eat cake

When will Nepal’s Covid vaccine turn come?

India and Nepal in Covid-19 crisis together

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

West Asia war and Nepalis

Now for something completely different