<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b0b9c7e80680e06b278jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="854" height="641"/><figcaption>A doctor in Hima Village Council in Jamla collects swab of a patient on Tuesday. Photo: DHIRAJ GURUNG</figcaption></figure>After being in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/unto-the-third-week-of-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lockdown now for nearly three weeks</a>, Nepal has started testing vulnerable groups in high-risk areas, but so far there have been no new COVID-19 positive cases. The numbers still stand at nine cases, one recovered and no fatalities.The government is focussing its tests on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">western Nepal</a> and tarai districts where there have been returning migrant workers from India. Although the border is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-and-india-stop-nationals-in-each-others-countries/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supposed to be closed</a> it is still possible for people to slip through.So far 3,524 tests have been conducted all over the country. 630 new tests (samples mostly from Kathmandu Valley) conducted in the last 24 hours did not show any positive case. Of the rapid diagnostic results conducted in Kailali, Kanchanpur, Kavilvastu and Baglung districts this week, 516 have come out negative.However, over 800 samples collected from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/western-nepal-potential-covid-19-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">western Nepal</a> have yet to be tested at the National Public Health Laboratory in Kathmandu and public health experts are expecting the number of positive cases to climb over the weekend.At least 120,000 Nepali workers have returned from India without screening before both countries went into lockdown, and people from western region make up the highest number of returnees.“We have to assume there are more cases out there, especially in hotspots along the Indian border, and even in remote areas where migrants have moved back. Local communities and ward committees there are strictly monitoring residents for symptoms,” says Sameer Dixit, researcher at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics in Kathmandu.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/western-nepal-potential-covid-19-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Western Nepal potential COVID-19 outbreak</a>In Jumla, medical officers are on standby for a rise in the number of positive cases, as local officials move house-to-house to check if any new arrival has a fever. Families in quarantine and deemed to be at higher risk have been tested even if they do not show symptoms.“Many of those tested had recently come back from the most affected parts in India and we already have a case of local transmission in the country, so there may be some positives there,” said Dhiraj Gurung of Karnali Academy of Health Sciences (KAHS).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b0e9c7e80680e06b279jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3088" height="2056"><figcaption>A Nepal Army helicopter at Bayalpata Hospital in Achham district in western Nepal on Tuesday from where it collected 51 swab samples for COVID-19 tests. Photo: BIKASH GAUCHAN</figcaption></figure>Over 1,300 samples have been collected over the last two days from from Jumla, Achham, Baitadi and Dadeldhura districts in western Nepal. Some 324 oral and nasopharyngeal swab samples from three different locations in Jumla were collected on 7 April: 150 at Chandanath airport, 124 from Hima Village Council and 50 from Kanaka Sundari in Sinja.Another 232 samples were collected from Achham district, 199 from Dadeldhura and 425 from Baitadi. Recent returnees from India, their immediate family members and those in quarantine were prioritised for the rapid diagnostic tests. Samples were flown in Nepal Army helicopters to Nepalganj, from where collected samples are taken every evening by military plane to Kathmandu for testing.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Returnees maybe taking coronavirus to rural Nepal</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel and Sonia AwaleInitially, hospitals in western Nepal had collected only a handful of samples because there were not enough Viral Transport Medium (an equipment to transport the samples to the lab). Mass testing is now being carried out with 11 laboratories across the Nepal set up for Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR).The PCR amplifies tiny bits of genetic material in the sample, enabling the detection of the virus. But there has been significant number of false positive and negative test results since the outbreak.Rapid diagnostic test kits have been controversial because of their reported unreliability in Europe, but health experts here say they have 86%, and those testing positive will be tested again with PCR. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-to-test-covid-19-test-kits-from-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Chinese kits</a> are being used in Kailali, Kanchanpur, Baglung, Myagdi and Parbat districts for people in quarantine. The government has some 75,000 rapid test kits, and has dispatched 5,000 to each each of the seven provinces.In Jumla, KAHS has over 47 staff and 100 nurses on call and 10 adult ICU beds have been added in anticipation of new cases. In Achham, the district hospital has been designated as a COVID-19 only hospital. Province 5 is trying to procure 20 ventilators. But despite preparedness, hospital staff say the region’s rudimentary healthcare system will be overwhelmed if there is a COVID-19 outbreak. The Health Ministry is therefore mobilising medical students on scholarship programs and retired medics to assist to fight COVID-19.“We do not know the exact number of people who have returned from India and even less about how many of them have symptoms, and where they are. We have to continue to work in prevention and control as well as increase mass testing,” explains Bikash Gauchan of Bayalpata Hospital in Achham which has set up a fever clinic and a separate ward.Four months into the pandemic, Nepal has been largely spared with only handful cases and only one community transmission. Public health experts are puzzled by this, and say possible theories like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/western-nepal-potential-covid-19-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BCG vaccine immunity</a> warrant further investigation.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/could-an-anti-tb-vaccine-be-protecting-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Could an anti-Tb vaccine be protecting Nepalis?</a>, Prabhas PokharelThe main worry is the continued spread in India where there were 30 new COVID-19 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking the total to 199. The case load in India have been rising at 567 per day.“There are sure to be more imported cases. But where are they? There is no severity, and only one community transmitted case. So something is going on,” says Sameer Dixit.Dhiraj Gurung who was involved in the Jumla testing said a larger than expected number turned up for the test, which may mean there are hidden cases. “But when we asked people to come for quarantine, very few showed up. This could mean there are individuals with mild symptoms, but there are not coming forward for fear of being ostracised.”The government has extended the nationwide lockdown till 15 April because it does not want families to gather for Nepal’s New Year Day on Monday. Experts say partial lockdowns will continue in areas at higher risk, and international flights may have to be suspended for another two weeks after 30 April.Says Sher Bahadur Pun at the country’s infectious disease centre in Kathmandu: “We are already in the second stage of COVID-19 transmission and the next stage will be serious. We cannot be complacent, and our only chance of containing it is to stop hidden cases from infecting others with an even stricter lockdown.”

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Nepal extends COVID-19 testing but no new cases

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79ba9c7e80680e06471cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3510" height="2340"/><figcaption>A deserted Tribhuvan International Airport today. All international flights in Nepal have been cancelled from 22-31 March. All Photos: BIKRAM RAI/ MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>On the day that Nepal detected a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-contact-tracing-2nd-covid-19-case/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second COVID-19 infected patient</a>  the Nepal government decided to lockdown the whole country from Tuesday morning at 6AM for one week till 31 March 6AM.This would be a much stricter stay-at-home order that would bring all movement to a halt and also close all government offices, businesses and shops. All remaining domestic flights and public transport will also stop, and it will bar people from moving about unless it is for medical reasons or to buy essentials.Read also:<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-contact-tracing-2nd-covid-19-case/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal contact tracing 2nd COVID-19 case</a>, Deepak Kharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-closes-land-border-with-india-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal closes land border with India, China</a>The country was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-under-semi-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">already partially closed</a> after all international flights were stopped after Sunday, all intercity buses were banned and<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-closes-land-border-with-india-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> the border with India and China</a> sealed. However, hundreds of Nepalis who were prevented from crossing the border into Nepal on Monday were finally allowed in after a temperature test.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79bd9c7e80680e06471djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3510" height="2340"><figcaption>Tribhuvan International Airport.</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79c09c7e80680e06471ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3510" height="2340">The lockdown decision was announced by Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel who chairs the COVID-19 Control and Management High-level Committee. The decision comes amidst criticism that the government’s efforts to restrict movement of people has so far been lackadaisical, ill-planned and confusing. In Kathmandu Valley, people were also not paying attention to the orders and using the largely empty streets to drive around town.There are still doubts about whether food shops, vegetable vendors and others will be allowed to function, since most families do not stock up on food and have to buy essentials from one day to the next.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-under-semi-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu under semi-lockdown</a>, Alisha Sijapati<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79c49c7e80680e06471fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="6720" height="4480"><figcaption>A busy Kalimati Market in spite of the government's recommendation to maintain physical distance and to stay at home.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79c89c7e80680e064720jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><figcaption>People wait in line for LPG refills in Anamnagar.</figcaption></figure>The lockdown means the whole country will effectively be under curfew for a week. An estimated 1.5 million people have left Kathmandu for their home districts. The hardest hit will be daily wage earners in urban centres.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-a-test/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is a test</a>, Editorial<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/global-thinking-and-local-action-on-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global thinking and local action on coronavirus</a>, Anil Chitrakar<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79cc9c7e80680e064721jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><figcaption>An unusually deserted Gongabu bus park today.</figcaption></figure>The 19-year-old student who flew back from Paris on 16 March is said not to be in a critical condition at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Diseases Hospital in Kathmandu. Her family and those who she had been in contact with have been kept in isolation. She is the second person to be diagnosed with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/this-is-a-test/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COVID-19 infection</a>  the previous was a Nepali student returning from China in January and he has recovered.Most public health experts are convinced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wait-and-watch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">there are more infected people around</a>  but they are also puzzled about why it has not spread as rapidly as elsewhere despite Nepal’s lack of preventive measures and diagnostic tests till this week.

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Nepal goes into lockdown for a week

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79739c7e80680e064704jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="864"/><figcaption>Historical sites like Kathmandu Darbar Square looked deserted as Nepalis chose to stay indoors amidst COVID-19 pandemic scare. Photo: ALISHA SIJAPATI</figcaption></figure>“It just doesn’t make sense!” You might have heard this phrase more than once lately in the context of Nepal and COVID-19: next to the epicentre in Wuhan and host to a large number of Chinese tourists and residents, this country has still only recorded one case of the coronavirus, and the person recovered. How can that be?You might also have heard, and scoffed, at the rumour that Nepalis have superior immune systems. ‘Nepali people have a stronger immunity power’ was one reason given <a href="https://english.khabarhub.com/2020/13/81620/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://english.khabarhub.com/2020/13/81620/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584943003593000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFc1KpV0IZPmrgxEFmxs8qmB0EFIQ">in this article</a> for why COVID-19 has not hit the country yet. As time goes on and the number of cases remains at just one, could there actually be something to the claim?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b79769c7e80680e064705jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="960">“The whole world is raising the question of Nepal because of the lack of COVID-19 cases and especially after the country recorded only three deaths from two previous virus outbreaks originating in China — SARS in 2002 and the 2009 H1N1,” says Baburam Marasini, former director of the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division of the Department of Health Services.“I believe that more cases of COVID-19 would have been detected by now if there was an active surveillance system in place,” added Marasini who says he has advised health officials to test people already hospitalised for pneumonia or with major breathing difficulties. “If you compare the number of those people with the number from last year you will see they have increased and have indirect proof that the virus is here.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b797a9c7e80680e064706jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="960">Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584943003593000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGvsYFUHfFB29Dfd_gj9XfxzoCYYg">Sameer Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics</a> says he has done that comparison and in the past four months there has been no increase in reports of flu-like illnesses to the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division compared to previous years. Across the country 20-25 government, private and community hospitals report to the division via the Early Warning and Response System.Yet based on experiences in other countries to date, 10-15% of those infected with COVID-19 should become seriously ill. Asks Dixit: “The limited testing to date could be a major factor, but don’t you think that there should be huge spikes everywhere of severe illness among the elderly population? It’s not happening. At night I lie in bed wondering why, and it’s bothering the hell out of me.”Dixit, who has postgraduate degrees in immunology and biotechnology, believes that people are not getting seriously ill because Nepal is experiencing a less severe strain of the virus, and/or Nepalis do have stronger immune systems."While lack of testing is also a big cause for missing cases, I believe that immunity may be a major player in developing countries. I know this sounds far-fetched, and people will laugh when they hear it, but there is a ‘hygiene hypothesis’." The theory suggests that people who grow up in less hygienic surroundings develop strong immunity to external health threats. Dixit notes that the hypothesis has not been tested for virus outbreaks. But to support the hygiene hypothesis he notes figures from previous outbreaks:  2009 Influenza A H1N1 pandemic: Global infected 700 million -1.4 billion, Global deaths 150,000-600,000, Nepal: Infected 173, Deaths 3.2003 SARS Corona outbreak: Global infected ~8,000, Global deaths ~770, Nepal: Infected 0, Deaths 0.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101156/636b797d9c7e80680e064707jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="960"><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584943003593000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHbM3RH59Ci_1YI8koW6JWamgnKw">Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Hospital,</a> downright rejects the notion of ‘Nepali immunity’. He says: “I think it is foolhardy to think that we are somehow immune – there is no scientific basis for this. I think it is a silly, wild conjecture.”He adds: “I hope it does not happen here, I hope all of these theories about immunity are true, but this is not a one-off virus, I think. Our health system is in a shambles, I think we should just make plans for a disaster.”Dixit, however, is not convinced that wider testing is necessary. “Developing countries like Nepal have a limited number of tests. It is very hard to justify testing among the 80-85% of people who could develop mild symptoms — how would we find them anyway? You’d basically have to go door-to-door and how practical is that … we basically need to save lives. Screw the detective work.”Instead, Dixit counsels trying to identify the 10-15% of the population most at risk, suggesting that people might have been hospitalised and mistakenly diagnosed with Influenza A when they actually have COVID-19.

Marty Logan

Covid-19, Nepal and the hygiene hypothesis

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan