<figure><img width="971" height="487" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/637204179c7e80680e0b2842jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths since January 2020, when the first case was detected in Nepal.</figcaption></figure>It was on 23 January 2020 that the first Covid-19 case was detected in Nepal. Two years later, the country is on the cusp of a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">third wave</a>.The time to sound an alarm about a new surge is long over. Action should have been taken months ago. All the government can do now is to launch a massive campaign to inoculate the unvaccinated, offer boosters to frontline workers, the elderly, and people in densely populated areas.Evidence elsewhere, including in neighbouring India, show that while the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/omicron-is-coming-to-nepal-be-prepared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron strain</a> is 12 times more transmissible than previous variants, most of those infected do not need critical care in hospitals – unless unvaccinated or immuno-compromised.    Cases are rising fast in Nepal, doubling every 2 days to 3,075 new recorded infections on Wednesday. The positivity rate has soared 10 times in a week to 23.5%. At this rate, there will be 12,000 new confirmed cases by 16 January, which will be higher than the peak of the second wave in May 2021.“With Omicron now spreading in the community, we don’t need to gene sequence anymore,” says Epidemiology and Disease Control Division director Krishna Prasad Paudel.He is hoping Omicron will show a similar trajectory to elsewhere, and those infected will have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">milder symptoms </a>compared to Delta. The new variant mostly impacts the upper respiratory tract, with lungs largely unaffected, hence lessening the need for oxygen and ventilators.However, Nepal’s low vaccination rate (50% partially, 40% fully) means that individuals need to continue taking precautions with masks and distancing.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/">“Nepal has all the conditions for an Omicron surge”</a>, Nepali Times <figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/637204199c7e80680e0b2843jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A double dose of the vaccine is not as effective against Omicron, and most Nepalis have passed six months since they were inoculated, meaning that their antibody levels have fallen considerably by now. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/boosting-booster-jabs-against-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boosters would provide more protection</a>, but the government is only offering those to high risk groups from next week.Although Omicron is now the dominant strain, Delta is still circulating, and causing deaths. We know from the past two years that it takes a few weeks for mortality to pick up after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-prepare-for-new-covid-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cases start rising</a>. This has been seen in India, and Nepal closely follows health trends there.“We need to keep a close watch on our mortality figures, find out which variant is causing most deaths, and we will have to prepare hospitals and healthcare workers once again,” warns epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa of IPAS.Across Nepal, many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/at-the-covid-19-frontlines-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rural hospitals are still understaffed</a> and do not have trained personnel to operate ventilators and run ICU wards. Not all new oxygen plants are functional yet.But Sangeeta Kaushal Mishra of the Health Coordination Division assures that the government is in a better position this time: “We are prepared for hospitalisations if cases are milder, but we don’t know how the virus will behave."The sheer transmissibility of Omicron could mean severe symptoms and even deaths among the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions like diabetes.  Elsewhere in the world, even vaccinated health workers have been infected, overwhelming hospitals.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/">“All vaccines prevent severe Covid”</a>, Nepali Times <img width="1594" height="986" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372041d9c7e80680e0b2844jpeg.jpg" alt="">The first line of defence against Covid is still masks and distancing. The second is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-are-the-only-solution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass vaccination</a>. Nepal still has a stockpile of over 10 million doses in refrigerated stores, and 6 million more doses in the pipeline. A syringe shortage reduced the vaccination rate, but Mishra expects the drive to pick up next week. More than 200,000 people were vaccinated on Wednesday.“We were lucky Omicron is mild, but we should use this  opportunity to inoculate both the unvaccinated and boost the  vulnerable on war footing,” says physician Buddha Basnyat of Patan Academy of Health Sciences.The government is starting mass inoculation of children from 12-17 years, and has shut down schools for three weeks until 29 January due to the new surge. Gatherings of more than 25 people have been banned, masks are mandatory outdoors, and people will need vaccine cards to enter public spaces from next week.“The fact that Omicron is much milder has made people even more careless, so we must once again reinforce the importance of masks, ventilation and distancing,” warns virologist Sher Bahadur Pun at Teku Hospital.Equally important is the institutional isolation of active cases and contact tracing. Experts believe official <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">figures are under-reported</a> and total cases and fatality figures are much higher. The Economist tracks ‘excess deaths’ across countries and estimates that 2.3 million people had died from Covid-19 by May 2021 in India, compared to only 200,000 official fatalities.Its calculations show that when Nepal recorded its highest daily Covid deaths of 246 on 19 May 2021, the actual number was 425. The real infection rate was also much higher than official data.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/">Living with Covid in 2022</a>, Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

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3rd wave in 2 years

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/6372030d9c7e80680e0b27e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1378" height="919"/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Be it by naïveté, misplaced optimism, or a great faith in the healing powers of Himalayan air and turmeric, no one in Nepal had expected that we would be in the global epicentre of the Covid-19 surge fuelled by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Delta variant in the spring of 2021</a>.Our miscalculation and gross lack of preparation cost thousands of lives and left so many Nepalis bereaved during this Dasain and Tihar. Shortly after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Indian wave began in March</a>, Nepal recorded the highest number of Covid cases per capita, and the worst viral transmission rates on the planet. While the world focused on India, Nepal's health system was overwhelmed in a matter of days.Remember how we <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/helping-nepalis-breathe-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">desperately searched for oxygen cylinders</a>, when every ICU bed was occupied and ventilators were in short supply? Remember rural communities where the situation was even worse, and so many Nepalis died without any medical attention? And there was the black market that forced many to pay exorbitant rates for life-saving oxygen, masks, and even paracetamol.We cannot afford to forget these terrible and deadly months. If we do, and do not prepare for the next wave, we will be bound to repeat them. With <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Omicron variant </a>now spreading like wildfire across the globe, let us remind ourselves that Nepal experiences a surge in Covid cases a few months after the rest of the world. The Delta variant (which has been proven to be less transmissible than Omicron) took more lives in just a few months than the 2015 earthquakes.The current low case numbers in Nepal are not going to last. Repeating our mistakes of under-preparedness and apathy has the potential to kill thousands of more Nepalis in the coming months.While preliminary data shows that the Omicron variant is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less likely to hospitalise infected individuals</a> than Delta did, we need to take into account that this new variant spreads at a much faster rate. The relief we may feel from a smaller percentage of Covid patients needing life-saving care is cancelled out by there being an exponentially higher number of total infections.Our medical facilities will still be overwhelmed, leading to unnecessary loss of life on a large scale. In short, Omicron is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not to be underestimated</a>, especially for densely populated communities in Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203109c7e80680e0b27eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1221" height="814">We still have some time to prepare. Policy makers and individuals alike have important roles to play in the critical next weeks and months. We cannot squander this opportunity to save lives. National and local governments need time to act now on these critical areas:<ol><li><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vaccinate Aggressively</a>: There are varying statistics on the percentage of Nepalis vaccinated, but no more than 40% of the population have been fully vaccinated. Booster shots are now necessary to adequately protect a population, so we still have a very long way to go.</li></ol>The good news is that even if we cannot fully vaccinate and provide boosters for the entire population, clinical experience shows that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccinated individuals</a> have less need for Covid-19 hospitalisations and are much less likely to die from the Omicron variant. Decision makers can make our limited vaccine supply go further by prioritising vaccines for densely populated cities and in areas where Delta infection was low, as people in these areas are less likely to have natural immunity.<ol start="2"><li>Border Control: The devastating wave of the Delta variant in Nepal began a few weeks after it had taken hold in India. This was largely attributed to a spillage of the virus through the open southern border. We can support municipalities along the border to help contain the Omicron by strict health desks to screen individuals crossing the border. This will require increased funding and other resources.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Isolation and Quarantine Centres: Delta spread from India and urban areas into the countryside because we could not properly accommodate and care for infected patients in quarantine and isolation centres. There is time to re-establish these facilities before the next wave hits, and train frontline health workers and local governments based on guidelines that already exist. Again, as the variants (and our knowledge about them) evolve, we need to remain agile and empower our managers and healthcare workers to address the changing ground situation.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Oxygen Supply: During and after the Delta wave last year, the Ministry of Health and Population made commendable efforts to expand oxygen plant availability in the country, with support from international aid groups. These new plants need to be brought online and tested in the coming months, and MoHP must accelerate its efforts to meet its own requirement of having an oxygen plant at every 100 bed-hospital in the country.</li></ol><ol start="5"><li>Using Female Community Health Volunteers: FCHVs have been a key for many of Nepal’s remarkable gains in public health, including reducing maternal mortality rates. This network of local health workers was not fully deployed during the last Covid wave. We can use FCHVs to disseminate public health information, vaccine knowledge, and to play a frontline role in enforcing community guidelines to reduce local transmission of the virus, and to care for the infected. These volunteers and other community-based health workers need to be adequately compensated, and equipped with materials, protective equipment, and training.</li></ol>Properly mobilising and empowering FCHVs is the fastest and most efficient way to support rural communities that lack other options for advanced care. This will have a ripple effect across the national health system, and may be a key factor in avoiding another total collapse. All of these steps depend on implementation by the government and private healthcare system. We commend recent steps taken by the health department to test Nepalis returning from India, and to establish quarantine centres along the border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203139c7e80680e0b27ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="856" height="571">As individuals, we must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">continue to take responsibility</a> for protecting our loved ones by following public health guidelines for another few months at least. History shows we will not know for certain that Omicron has arrived in Nepal until after the variant is endemic in the population. These proactive measures can slow the spread, starting now:<ol><li>Mask up in all public places and when in close contact with members of at-risk populations. Doubling up on masks is a good idea, given the extremely contagious nature of Omicron.</li></ol><ol start="2"><li>Avoid touching the face with fingers, and frequently wash hands - at least 20 seconds with soap and water.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Avoid all public gatherings. If not, maintain social distance of at least 1m.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Support the local government by following protocols and encouraging elected officials to take proactive measures to protect the community. Volunteer to spread awareness or set up facilities if you can, and be ready to support your community when the next wave arrives. We Nepali are great at using ‘source-force’ to get things done - now is a great time to use your connections and networks to encourage people in positions of influence to take proactive steps to prepare for Omicron.</li></ol>In the age of Covid, it’ is every country and every community for itself. Delta taught us in Nepal not to trust promises of international aid to save us from the pandemic. We are on our own, and we only have each other to get through this.The Delta wave, like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2015 earthquakes</a>, also taught us that when the going gets tough, Nepalis come together and achieve miracles. Remember the community groups that blossomed across the country to create isolation centres, distribute food and supplies, and invented improvised oxygen concentrators.Remember the FCHVs and community members who risked their lives to travel into every corner of the country to deliver vaccines to the most vulnerable citizens.  This time, we have an opportunity to harness this grit and compassion when it is needed most - before the disaster strikes.Ramu Kharel is an emergency medicine physician at Brown University and has worked extensively in the frontlines of Covid-19. He runs a non-profit organisation HAPSA in Nepal that is working on Covid response.Ben Ayers is an American citizen based in Nepal for over 20 years.

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Omicron is coming to Nepal, be prepared

How Nepal must prepare for 3rd Covid wave

<img width="640" height="438" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131140/636cf1eb9c7e80680e09d8d5jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Many public health specialists in Nepal have been heaving a sigh of relief that the infection graph for the second wave is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/">starting to flatten</a>, but with reports of black fungus, third wave and new variants there is no respite.Everything that India has suffered since March has repeated itself in Nepal on a smaller scale. The  black fungus outbreak could be a microcosm of the post-second wave world, of  ‘epidemics within a pandemic’ as opportunistic infections and new Covid-19 waves prey on collapsed health systems.    In theory, Nepal should not have a strong flare-up like India because we have fewer risk characteristics, says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa. “Covid is communicable so it spreads regardless of demographic factors, but black fungus is rarely contagious and selective.” she says. “India’s population has a higher proportion of elderly, diabetics and immunocompromised people than us, and these are the groups most vulnerable to black fungus,” she says.Indeed, there were reports in India of black fungus even pre-Covid, with 140 cases per million, which was the highest in the world. It currently has 12,000 cases and 300 deaths from the fungus that mostly affects Covid patients on ventilators and survivors on long-term steroid treatment.But for all we know, the infection may already spreading in Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/">starting from the Tarai and moving up</a> just like the Covid second wave. The ‘black fungus’ mucormycosis is found abundantly in the soil, and thrives on steroid overuse, especially on Covid patients with diabetes and other ailments. Cleared out easily by a healthy body, mucormycosis latches on to patients whose immune systems are compromised. “Covid treatment is a double-edged sword, it suppresses the virus-induced hyperimmune response but also raises blood sugar levels and weakens infection-fighting ability, making conditions perfect for mucormycosis,” explains Sherpa.The Health Ministry  announced in its daily briefing on Thursday that there were  6,825 new confirmed Covid-19 cases-- up from Wednesday's tally of 5,316--with 5,904 recovering. This brings the total number of active cases to 576,936, with 101,839 in isolation . Of the 1,444 in hospital ICUs, 398 are on ventilator support. Those in ICUs and ventilators face a double whammy as hospitals treat them with steroids and desperately reuse uncleaned humidifiers and discarded oxygen cylinders. According to the Health Ministry, 10 to 12 patients with black fungus have been detected so far, but there may be more.Covid survivors who needed critical ICU treatment and are continuing with steroids are left more susceptible to black fungus infection anytime. Nepal’s first recorded fatality from black fungus was a 60-year-old patient in Lumbini Provincial Hospital recently recovered from Covid.“Black fungus infection has been spotted even in those recovered from Covid for the past six weeks or more,” say Khemraj Bhusal a consultant physician at Greencity Hospital. But as stable survivors are sent home they become potential<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/"> blind spots in black fungus tallies.</a>Hospitals in the frontlines can ill-afford to meet new shadow caseloads. Diagnosing mucormycosis infection early requires biopsies, sample examinations and even follow-up CT scans, requiring specialised personnel and advanced equipment that most district hospitals in Nepal do not have.  <figure><img width="640" height="441" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131140/636cf1ed9c7e80680e09d8d6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>TU Teaching Hospital is one of the few facilities equipped to sample and test black fungus</figcaption></figure>While manageable if caught on time, the invasive nature of the disease is difficult to treat. In the most common rhinocerebral variety, the fungi eats through subcutaneous tissue and leaves behind characteristic black lesions on the septum and oral cavity. Infected tissues must be removed and eyes even sacrificed to save the brain from lethal infection. If left untreated, the infection has a mortality rate of 50%.   Treatment in such cases involves multiple organs, thus requiring teams of microbiologists, internal medicine specialists, intensivist neurologists, ophthalmologists, dentists and surgeons. But with civil service exams for doctors in limbo for years, rural hospitals lack the specialists necessary to deal with severe cases.Similar to the pandemic at large, life-saving shots against mucormycosis infection <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/">are in short supply.</a>“Liposomal amphotericin B is an effective treatment, but fungal infections are normally so rare that antifungal production, and therefore supply, is low,” says Associate Professor of Microbiology at Tribhuvan University Megha Raj Banjara. Amphotericin treatment is extensive, with as many as 60 to 100 vials of injections needed across 4-6 weeks depending on infection severity. In the event of an outbreak, huge stockpiles are needed. Treatment is also costly, with one-day therapy costing upwards of Rs50,000.  <figure><img width="500" height="284" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131140/636cf1f09c7e80680e09d8d7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>India has acted quick, importing 200,000 vials of AmBisome amphotericin B from American pharma company Gilead Sciences</figcaption></figure>Meanwhile, alternative medications like posaconazole and isavuconazole have toxic side effects, are also expensive and less effective. Imports of amphotericin are the only solution, but as with the pandemic, prospects do not look encouraging. India has already <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-imposes-restrictions-on-export-of-amphotericin-b-injections/articleshow/83141538.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-imposes-restrictions-on-export-of-amphotericin-b-injections/articleshow/83141538.cms&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622790971413000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfCYV-2Ni2HvdjXZzhn1JDrfiduQ">imposed restrictions on amphotericin B export</a>, itself shipping in 200,000 vials from Gilead Sciences in the US, with reports of hoarding and price gouging. Despite warning signs, there has been no appeal for amphotericin shipments from the Nepal government. If that ws not enough to worry about, India is seeing signs of an early third wave, with <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-preps-for-3rd-wave-as-covid-hits-8-000-children-in-1-district-2452564" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-preps-for-3rd-wave-as-covid-hits-8-000-children-in-1-district-2452564&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622790971413000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF8kNzDFxj6SwwwJkab1rJ7ZWoPLA">8,000 children infected</a> in a single district in Maharashtra state. With low vaccine penetration in the under-18 cohort, children in Nepal could be next, just like the first two waves.Meanwhile, 1,350,000 Nepalis above age 55 are set to miss timely booster doses as there is no possibility of securing Covishield shipments from India, according to Chief of Family Welfare Division of the Health Ministry Taranath Pokhrel. He said Nepal is trying to procure the Oxford AstraZeneca from other countries for this cohort, but so far there are no firm deals.The third wave is set to hit India around July, giving Nepal about a month and half to rush vaccine doses for its vulnerable age groups.  Till then, Nepalis will be left once more to fend for themselves. Aggressive self-medication and quack remedies such as cow dung baths are rampant, leaving Covid patients at increased risk of co-infections like black fungus.  “Patients are able to buy medicines without prescriptions from lax pharmacies.” says Sherpa. “Covid patients should avoid self-medication and only medicate under the strict supervision of health professionals or risk being exposed to secondary infections.”Simple changes can mitigate black fungus. Hospitals should routinely change humidifier water for ventilated patients and avoid sharing oxygen tubes and masks, says Binita Sharma, Chief Medical Director of Netra Jyoti Sangh. She says those with symptoms should immediately get checked up.To prevent future Covid-19 waves, experts say high-disruption strategies are needed at a time when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/as-covid-19-crests-nepal-eases-restrictions/">lockdowns are being relaxed.</a> Ultimately, it<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-are-the-only-solution/"> will be vaccines</a> and they are needed before the third wave.

Learning to live with Covid

<img width="640" height="438" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121136/636b910a9c7e80680e06f0c6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Many public health specialists in Nepal have been heaving a sigh of relief that the infection graph for the second wave is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/">starting to flatten</a>, but with reports of black fungus, third wave and new variants there is no respite.Everything that India has suffered since March has repeated itself in Nepal on a smaller scale. The  black fungus outbreak could be a microcosm of the post-second wave world, of  ‘epidemics within a pandemic’ as opportunistic infections and new Covid-19 waves prey on collapsed health systems.    In theory, Nepal should not have a strong flare-up like India because we have fewer risk characteristics, says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa. “Covid is communicable so it spreads regardless of demographic factors, but black fungus is rarely contagious and selective.” she says. “India’s population has a higher proportion of elderly, diabetics and immunocompromised people than us, and these are the groups most vulnerable to black fungus,” she says.Indeed, there were reports in India of black fungus even pre-Covid, with 140 cases per million, which was the highest in the world. It currently has 12,000 cases and 300 deaths from the fungus that mostly affects Covid patients on ventilators and survivors on long-term steroid treatment.But for all we know, the infection may already spreading in Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/">starting from the Tarai and moving up</a> just like the Covid second wave. The ‘black fungus’ mucormycosis is found abundantly in the soil, and thrives on steroid overuse, especially on Covid patients with diabetes and other ailments. Cleared out easily by a healthy body, mucormycosis latches on to patients whose immune systems are compromised. “Covid treatment is a double-edged sword, it suppresses the virus-induced hyperimmune response but also raises blood sugar levels and weakens infection-fighting ability, making conditions perfect for mucormycosis,” explains Sherpa.The Health Ministry  announced in its daily briefing on Thursday that there were  6,825 new confirmed Covid-19 cases-- up from Wednesday's tally of 5,316--with 5,904 recovering. This brings the total number of active cases to 576,936, with 101,839 in isolation . Of the 1,444 in hospital ICUs, 398 are on ventilator support. Those in ICUs and ventilators face a double whammy as hospitals treat them with steroids and desperately reuse uncleaned humidifiers and discarded oxygen cylinders. According to the Health Ministry, 10 to 12 patients with black fungus have been detected so far, but there may be more.Covid survivors who needed critical ICU treatment and are continuing with steroids are left more susceptible to black fungus infection anytime. Nepal’s first recorded fatality from black fungus was a 60-year-old patient in Lumbini Provincial Hospital recently recovered from Covid.“Black fungus infection has been spotted even in those recovered from Covid for the past six weeks or more,” say Khemraj Bhusal a consultant physician at Greencity Hospital. But as stable survivors are sent home they become potential<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/"> blind spots in black fungus tallies.</a>Hospitals in the frontlines can ill-afford to meet new shadow caseloads. Diagnosing mucormycosis infection early requires biopsies, sample examinations and even follow-up CT scans, requiring specialised personnel and advanced equipment that most district hospitals in Nepal do not have.  <figure><img width="640" height="441" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121136/636b910d9c7e80680e06f0c7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>TU Teaching Hospital is one of the few facilities equipped to sample and test black fungus</figcaption></figure>While manageable if caught on time, the invasive nature of the disease is difficult to treat. In the most common rhinocerebral variety, the fungi eats through subcutaneous tissue and leaves behind characteristic black lesions on the septum and oral cavity. Infected tissues must be removed and eyes even sacrificed to save the brain from lethal infection. If left untreated, the infection has a mortality rate of 50%.   Treatment in such cases involves multiple organs, thus requiring teams of microbiologists, internal medicine specialists, intensivist neurologists, ophthalmologists, dentists and surgeons. But with civil service exams for doctors in limbo for years, rural hospitals lack the specialists necessary to deal with severe cases.Similar to the pandemic at large, life-saving shots against mucormycosis infection <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/">are in short supply.</a>“Liposomal amphotericin B is an effective treatment, but fungal infections are normally so rare that antifungal production, and therefore supply, is low,” says Associate Professor of Microbiology at Tribhuvan University Megha Raj Banjara. Amphotericin treatment is extensive, with as many as 60 to 100 vials of injections needed across 4-6 weeks depending on infection severity. In the event of an outbreak, huge stockpiles are needed. Treatment is also costly, with one-day therapy costing upwards of Rs50,000.  <figure><img width="500" height="284" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121136/636b910f9c7e80680e06f0c8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>India has acted quick, importing 200,000 vials of AmBisome amphotericin B from American pharma company Gilead Sciences</figcaption></figure>Meanwhile, alternative medications like posaconazole and isavuconazole have toxic side effects, are also expensive and less effective. Imports of amphotericin are the only solution, but as with the pandemic, prospects do not look encouraging. India has already <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-imposes-restrictions-on-export-of-amphotericin-b-injections/articleshow/83141538.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-imposes-restrictions-on-export-of-amphotericin-b-injections/articleshow/83141538.cms&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622790971413000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfCYV-2Ni2HvdjXZzhn1JDrfiduQ">imposed restrictions on amphotericin B export</a>, itself shipping in 200,000 vials from Gilead Sciences in the US, with reports of hoarding and price gouging. Despite warning signs, there has been no appeal for amphotericin shipments from the Nepal government. If that ws not enough to worry about, India is seeing signs of an early third wave, with <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-preps-for-3rd-wave-as-covid-hits-8-000-children-in-1-district-2452564" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-preps-for-3rd-wave-as-covid-hits-8-000-children-in-1-district-2452564&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622790971413000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF8kNzDFxj6SwwwJkab1rJ7ZWoPLA">8,000 children infected</a> in a single district in Maharashtra state. With low vaccine penetration in the under-18 cohort, children in Nepal could be next, just like the first two waves.Meanwhile, 1,350,000 Nepalis above age 55 are set to miss timely booster doses as there is no possibility of securing Covishield shipments from India, according to Chief of Family Welfare Division of the Health Ministry Taranath Pokhrel. He said Nepal is trying to procure the Oxford AstraZeneca from other countries for this cohort, but so far there are no firm deals.The third wave is set to hit India around July, giving Nepal about a month and half to rush vaccine doses for its vulnerable age groups.  Till then, Nepalis will be left once more to fend for themselves. Aggressive self-medication and quack remedies such as cow dung baths are rampant, leaving Covid patients at increased risk of co-infections like black fungus.  “Patients are able to buy medicines without prescriptions from lax pharmacies.” says Sherpa. “Covid patients should avoid self-medication and only medicate under the strict supervision of health professionals or risk being exposed to secondary infections.”Simple changes can mitigate black fungus. Hospitals should routinely change humidifier water for ventilated patients and avoid sharing oxygen tubes and masks, says Binita Sharma, Chief Medical Director of Netra Jyoti Sangh. She says those with symptoms should immediately get checked up.To prevent future Covid-19 waves, experts say high-disruption strategies are needed at a time when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/as-covid-19-crests-nepal-eases-restrictions/">lockdowns are being relaxed.</a> Ultimately, it<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-are-the-only-solution/"> will be vaccines</a> and they are needed before the third wave.

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