<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/6372030d9c7e80680e0b27e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1378" height="919"/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Be it by naïveté, misplaced optimism, or a great faith in the healing powers of Himalayan air and turmeric, no one in Nepal had expected that we would be in the global epicentre of the Covid-19 surge fuelled by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Delta variant in the spring of 2021</a>.Our miscalculation and gross lack of preparation cost thousands of lives and left so many Nepalis bereaved during this Dasain and Tihar. Shortly after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Indian wave began in March</a>, Nepal recorded the highest number of Covid cases per capita, and the worst viral transmission rates on the planet. While the world focused on India, Nepal's health system was overwhelmed in a matter of days.Remember how we <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/helping-nepalis-breathe-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">desperately searched for oxygen cylinders</a>, when every ICU bed was occupied and ventilators were in short supply? Remember rural communities where the situation was even worse, and so many Nepalis died without any medical attention? And there was the black market that forced many to pay exorbitant rates for life-saving oxygen, masks, and even paracetamol.We cannot afford to forget these terrible and deadly months. If we do, and do not prepare for the next wave, we will be bound to repeat them. With <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Omicron variant </a>now spreading like wildfire across the globe, let us remind ourselves that Nepal experiences a surge in Covid cases a few months after the rest of the world. The Delta variant (which has been proven to be less transmissible than Omicron) took more lives in just a few months than the 2015 earthquakes.The current low case numbers in Nepal are not going to last. Repeating our mistakes of under-preparedness and apathy has the potential to kill thousands of more Nepalis in the coming months.While preliminary data shows that the Omicron variant is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less likely to hospitalise infected individuals</a> than Delta did, we need to take into account that this new variant spreads at a much faster rate. The relief we may feel from a smaller percentage of Covid patients needing life-saving care is cancelled out by there being an exponentially higher number of total infections.Our medical facilities will still be overwhelmed, leading to unnecessary loss of life on a large scale. In short, Omicron is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not to be underestimated</a>, especially for densely populated communities in Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203109c7e80680e0b27eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1221" height="814">We still have some time to prepare. Policy makers and individuals alike have important roles to play in the critical next weeks and months. We cannot squander this opportunity to save lives. National and local governments need time to act now on these critical areas:<ol><li><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vaccinate Aggressively</a>: There are varying statistics on the percentage of Nepalis vaccinated, but no more than 40% of the population have been fully vaccinated. Booster shots are now necessary to adequately protect a population, so we still have a very long way to go.</li></ol>The good news is that even if we cannot fully vaccinate and provide boosters for the entire population, clinical experience shows that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccinated individuals</a> have less need for Covid-19 hospitalisations and are much less likely to die from the Omicron variant. Decision makers can make our limited vaccine supply go further by prioritising vaccines for densely populated cities and in areas where Delta infection was low, as people in these areas are less likely to have natural immunity.<ol start="2"><li>Border Control: The devastating wave of the Delta variant in Nepal began a few weeks after it had taken hold in India. This was largely attributed to a spillage of the virus through the open southern border. We can support municipalities along the border to help contain the Omicron by strict health desks to screen individuals crossing the border. This will require increased funding and other resources.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Isolation and Quarantine Centres: Delta spread from India and urban areas into the countryside because we could not properly accommodate and care for infected patients in quarantine and isolation centres. There is time to re-establish these facilities before the next wave hits, and train frontline health workers and local governments based on guidelines that already exist. Again, as the variants (and our knowledge about them) evolve, we need to remain agile and empower our managers and healthcare workers to address the changing ground situation.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Oxygen Supply: During and after the Delta wave last year, the Ministry of Health and Population made commendable efforts to expand oxygen plant availability in the country, with support from international aid groups. These new plants need to be brought online and tested in the coming months, and MoHP must accelerate its efforts to meet its own requirement of having an oxygen plant at every 100 bed-hospital in the country.</li></ol><ol start="5"><li>Using Female Community Health Volunteers: FCHVs have been a key for many of Nepal’s remarkable gains in public health, including reducing maternal mortality rates. This network of local health workers was not fully deployed during the last Covid wave. We can use FCHVs to disseminate public health information, vaccine knowledge, and to play a frontline role in enforcing community guidelines to reduce local transmission of the virus, and to care for the infected. These volunteers and other community-based health workers need to be adequately compensated, and equipped with materials, protective equipment, and training.</li></ol>Properly mobilising and empowering FCHVs is the fastest and most efficient way to support rural communities that lack other options for advanced care. This will have a ripple effect across the national health system, and may be a key factor in avoiding another total collapse. All of these steps depend on implementation by the government and private healthcare system. We commend recent steps taken by the health department to test Nepalis returning from India, and to establish quarantine centres along the border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203139c7e80680e0b27ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="856" height="571">As individuals, we must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">continue to take responsibility</a> for protecting our loved ones by following public health guidelines for another few months at least. History shows we will not know for certain that Omicron has arrived in Nepal until after the variant is endemic in the population. These proactive measures can slow the spread, starting now:<ol><li>Mask up in all public places and when in close contact with members of at-risk populations. Doubling up on masks is a good idea, given the extremely contagious nature of Omicron.</li></ol><ol start="2"><li>Avoid touching the face with fingers, and frequently wash hands - at least 20 seconds with soap and water.</li></ol><ol start="3"><li>Avoid all public gatherings. If not, maintain social distance of at least 1m.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>Support the local government by following protocols and encouraging elected officials to take proactive measures to protect the community. Volunteer to spread awareness or set up facilities if you can, and be ready to support your community when the next wave arrives. We Nepali are great at using ‘source-force’ to get things done - now is a great time to use your connections and networks to encourage people in positions of influence to take proactive steps to prepare for Omicron.</li></ol>In the age of Covid, it’ is every country and every community for itself. Delta taught us in Nepal not to trust promises of international aid to save us from the pandemic. We are on our own, and we only have each other to get through this.The Delta wave, like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2015 earthquakes</a>, also taught us that when the going gets tough, Nepalis come together and achieve miracles. Remember the community groups that blossomed across the country to create isolation centres, distribute food and supplies, and invented improvised oxygen concentrators.Remember the FCHVs and community members who risked their lives to travel into every corner of the country to deliver vaccines to the most vulnerable citizens.  This time, we have an opportunity to harness this grit and compassion when it is needed most - before the disaster strikes.Ramu Kharel is an emergency medicine physician at Brown University and has worked extensively in the frontlines of Covid-19. He runs a non-profit organisation HAPSA in Nepal that is working on Covid response.Ben Ayers is an American citizen based in Nepal for over 20 years.

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Omicron is coming to Nepal, be prepared

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

covid-vaccinations

Omicron is coming to Nepal, be prepared

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138