Sarus cranes hold a unique place among all the other species of birds found in Nepal, owing to their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-lumbini-s-rare-cranes" target="_blank">legendary connection with Lord Buddha</a> in his birthplace of Lumbini. It is believed that Prince Siddhartha was strolling in the palace garden one day when he came across a wounded crane. As he was taking the arrow out, his cousin Devdatta, who had shot the bird, demanded the bird back. Unable to establish who the rightful owner was, the two went to King Suddhodhan who then declared that the bird belonged to the one who saved its life. The bird mentioned in Buddhist scriptures is said to be the Sarus crane found in Lumbini and the wetlands of the Tarai plains of Nepal, and have possibly been living here for millennia.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_b8f603465496e926a7ba7caef0d03f781e6719702a0d2ce25e4f977d62b97b8c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230822070848_b8f603465496e926a7ba7caef0d03f781e6719702a0d2ce25e4f977d62b97b8c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1146" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> <figcaption>Photos: DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL PARKS AND WILDLIFE CONSERVATION NEPAL</figcaption> </figure>  The Sarus crane’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/cranes-nature-and-godliness" target="_blank">cultural importance</a> has been recognised by the local municipality which regards the bird as its mascot. But rapid urban spread in this part of Nepal has resulted in the destruction of its habitat. A study by Nepal Zoological Society and Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Biology funded by the <a href="https://savingcranes.org/" target="_blank">International Crane Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-lumbini-s-rare-cranes" target="_blank">World Wildlife Fund</a> puts the population of these monogamous birds at only 690 in Nepal. Lead researcher ornithologist Hem Katuwal warns that cranes and other bird species could disappear from the Nepal Tarai if conservation measures are not urgently undertaken.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_20650eed8af4be7b9fb7e63fc92c7f4b19c1c737e9ad301b37ca02a6664eedce.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230822070848_20650eed8af4be7b9fb7e63fc92c7f4b19c1c737e9ad301b37ca02a6664eedce" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="625" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Hari Sharma at the Central Department of Biology, however, is not so discouraged. He says, “The survey was conducted in the dry season, and even then we counted more cranes than expected. This number will definitely increase in the monsoon.”&nbsp; The study looked at the population and status of cranes in the greater Lumbini area and other districts with 14 teams fanning out across 93 blocks with roosting sites, including ten in Lumbini, two in Kapilvastu, seven in Rupandehi, and one each in Jagdishpur Lake, Bajaha Lake, and Nawalparasi. Among the 15 species of cranes found globally, Nepal is home to four, the Sarus (Antigone antigone), Karyangkurung (Demoiselle Crane), Laxman (Common Crane), and Kalikantha (Black-necked Crane). <div class="embed-block"><div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="//cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fembed%2Ftn9sYLe_lZY&key=87ca3314a9fa775b5c3a7726100694b0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div></div></div> The Demoiselle, Common Crane, and Black-necked Crane are migratory birds, flying down from the Tibetan Plateau across the Himalayan mountains to the plains of Nepal and India in winter. But the Sarus prefers to stay put, and the study focussed on this group.&nbsp; Like other wildlife, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/shooting-sarus" target="_blank">survival of the Sarus</a> depends on the availability of water in rivers, lakes and wetlands. But water is drying up due to over-extraction, pollution, invasive species and weather extremes caused by the climate crisis. “As the rivers shrink during summer, the birds migrate further to the south. Last winter, over 100 cranes were found in Bajaha Lake. This time the water had dried up, and only 27 were seen,” says Katuwal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_e779ea21a4900a2d6a0f25daa519c1bdea88127619dc55679f0d90233e43466a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20230822070848_e779ea21a4900a2d6a0f25daa519c1bdea88127619dc55679f0d90233e43466a" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="1045" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  A dedicated <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/proposed-change-to-lumbini-masterplan-threat-to-Sarus,4090" target="_blank">Crane Conservation Area</a> has been formed within the &nbsp;Lumbini enclave due to its sacred connection to the Buddha. The study focused on the Lumbini area, which includes Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, and Parasi, and found out that although wetlands are important, cranes tended to breed in open fields and avoided forests. The region has now been declared an Important Bird Area by <a href="https://www.birdlife.org/" target="_blank">BirdLife International</a>. Increasing construction activity, new cement factories in the Lumbini region worried researchers who felt it would lead to further habitat destruction and water scarcity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_3f1ede6cf02961058be67cf73af22e21c68af2f866a84778d915d5784436ec3a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20230822070848_3f1ede6cf02961058be67cf73af22e21c68af2f866a84778d915d5784436ec3a" data-rendition-name="original" width="830" height="594" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_f110d5c17b0bd309c85b328fc5847491c588142fc15d01dccb7812cc473c5297.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20230822070848_f110d5c17b0bd309c85b328fc5847491c588142fc15d01dccb7812cc473c5297" data-rendition-name="original" width="328" height="250" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Another threat to cranes and other birds is the changing agriculture practice of burning harvest residue which reduces the availability of insects which are already impacted by pesticide use. Electric transmission lines also pose a threat, and at least 42 cranes have been killed in the past 12 years after colliding with wires. Stray dogs and people stealing eggs also pose additional danger. As the habitat of cranes spans the Nepal-India border, many cranes fly back and forth, which points to a need for a trans-boundary conservation campaign by tagging birds to track their movement.&nbsp; The study also surveyed local perception of cranes, and found them to be largely positive with most residents regarding the presence of the birds in their fields as an auspicious sign. However, the Nepal Tarai is now home to more than half of Nepal’s population and there is increasing migration of people from the mountains who may not share the same veneration for cranes. <h2>Cranes&nbsp;</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_4780b96b8e37038a2538696df6b2ea80a31a33938c48ef2d61964d8a3b0a32a4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20230822070848_4780b96b8e37038a2538696df6b2ea80a31a33938c48ef2d61964d8a3b0a32a4" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="1044" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Cranes are the world’s tallest birds that can fly, and the Sarus stand 2m high and can be 3m wide when they spread their wings. They are light brown in colour and have red patches on the head and neck, with pink legs. Cranes weigh from 6-12kgs and are omnivorous birds that feed on plants, grains, roots, insects, and worms. They breed in the monsoon season and build their nests near wetland areas and in fields with &nbsp;grass, roots, and stems of giant reeds.&nbsp; Usually, they hatch one to two eggs in one nest. Both male and female cranes sit upon the eggs &nbsp;for 30 to 32 days and then hatch the eggs. they live in pairs for life, and have been known to have a lifespan of 40 years in captivity. The arrival of cranes indicates rain, and rice planting time. They are regarded as symbols of love because of their conjugal habit.&nbsp;

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Saving Lumbini’s Sarus

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda349c7e80680e080257jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2300" height="1506"/><figcaption>Demoiselle Cranes flying south in autumn along the Kali Gandaki at Kagbeni with Mt Dhaulagiri looming in the background. Photos: RAJENDRA SUWAL</figcaption></figure>It was in Kagbeni in 1980. High above in the deep blue Himalayan sky was a flock of graceful Demoiselle Cranes, flying north riding up-valley winds on their <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWYVE7LOY1bjdTHz0_Zi04BIgMPA">annual migration</a> across the Himalaya. It was my lucky day.The Kali Gandaki at this point is the deepest gorge in the world, located between two eight thousander peaks, Dhaulagiri and Annapurna I. It provides a passage for migratory birds from the Tibetan Plateau and Siberia to the Subcontinent and back.Kagbeni is a vantage point to spot migratory birds, and I had visited it multiple times to provide expertise for filming by NHK and BBC. Till then, I had never seen the cranes, only watched them on Planet Earth Mountains on Discovery Channel.Demoiselle Cranes are the third most common crane species after the Sandhill Crane in North America and Eurasian Crane in Europe and Asia. They number over 200,000, and demonstrate spectacular migratory flights.They breed in the vast expanses of the steppe grasslands of Mongolia and Russia, and fly south across the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya to winter in western India.Unlike other cranes that dwell on wetlands, these cranes prefer relatively dry habitats for survival. Their nests can be found on dry ground around 500m apart from each other.Prior to migration, the birds flock with their fledglings. Birds from Mongolia and Russia overflying Nepal and Pakistan covering nearly 3,000km one way, and finally converge in western India, where they live in large flocks in their wintering grounds.They can fly over extreme habitats of the world including the scorching Gobi Desert, the high and dry Tibetan Plateau, the Himalaya with its jet stream, the lush Gangetic Plains and the farms of Western India.Satellite telemetry studies have recorded a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEVeULiv_aGZnCsiDtV0Vo6KU3L0Q">cyclic migration pattern</a> of Demoiselle Cranes, flying over Nepal during autumn and returning via Mongolia in spring. During their autumn migration, birders can see magnificent flocks of Demoiselle over Nepal’s high mountain passes, gorges and along the Tarai. Farmers in Nepal often witness flocks flying in V formation like a swaying garland pattern in the sky, and call it ‘karyang kurung’ for the sound the make.In 1972, a flock of Demoiselle even alighted on Tundikhel at the centre of Kathmandu. More recently, I have observed them flying over my office in Baluwatar in 2015, and from my house in Chetrapati in 2016.But for these migrating cranes, Kagbeni remains the flight path of choice since the Kali Gandaki serves as a funnel that cuts through the Himalaya. My highest count of the Demoiselle has ranged from 50,000 in 2004 to only 5,000 in 2009.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda389c7e80680e080258jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1000"><figcaption>Another flock of Demoiselle Cranes flying north in spring, riding the up-valley thermals of the Kali Gandaki to lift them over the mountains to the Tibetan Plateau.</figcaption></figure>Variance in counting can be tied to weather, wind and visibility. When the wind in the Himalaya picks up, the flocks descend to lower altitudes. When they have the jet stream on their tails, they ride it over the mountains.For these expert fliers, the flight path is determined by head or tail winds, thermals, katabatic winds, and other weather phenomena. Thermals in the wind shadow of the mountains helps them gain altitude.In Nepal, the southerly daily thermals of the Kali Gandaki valley helps the birds soar up and over the mountains, whereas, riverbanks, wetlands and farms along the flight path are convenient night stops.These wetlands connect the dots along the birds’ migration routes, and Nepal lies in the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/decline-in-birds-of-migration-nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/decline-in-birds-of-migration-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMCt4MH3fr9o9Mfzu3EpqT-WJdNw">Central Asian Flyway</a>. During bad weather events, the birds use the windswept flood plains of the Kali Gandaki river in Kagbeni and Larjung of Annapurna Conservation Area as a safe stopover, while the buckwheat terraces provide food for their long journeys.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda3c9c7e80680e080259jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="774"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>While large in number, these birds still need protection from threats along their migratory routes and stopovers. These include poisoning from pesticide laden seeds, and from epidemics of water borne or airborne diseases.In <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/02/16/mongolian-raptor-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/02/16/mongolian-raptor-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGTIQbTCpl1pNTbc7ArUuZ-RCPdvw">Mongolia</a>, the application of the rodenticide Bromadiolone is known to have killed hundreds of Demoiselle Cranes, Steppe Eagles, Saker Falcons and other species. In November last year, 37 Demoiselle were found dead in Jodhpur in India, probably after eating poisoned seeds.In North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan, crane hunters are the biggest threat during migration. Metal weights tied to strings are hurled to lasso the cranes as they fly low to clear mountain passes. Traditional hunters in Pakistan often use live cranes as decoys to attract other birds, and keep them as pets.Ensuring safe and protected wetlands and farms along their migratory routes from Russia, Mongolia, China, Tibet, Pakistan, Nepal to India along the Central Asian Flyway is crucial to ensure the long term survival of these birds.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-ecosystem-is-important-for-sarus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-ecosystem-is-important-for-sarus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFyWKHCBDGHmYeapMRHQOiOThrblw">Legend has it</a> that Lord Buddha’s cousin killed a crane, and he was very moved when its mate mourned its death. The scene changed his life by inspiring him to seek a path of non-violence and compassion.One of the approaches undertaken by WWF, known as the <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/our_work/our_focus/freshwater_practice/freshwater_inititiaves/asian_flyways_initiative/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://wwf.panda.org/our_work/our_focus/freshwater_practice/freshwater_inititiaves/asian_flyways_initiative/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmKkjAdwHAjLK7clvuQxaYvOGEcA">Asian Flyway Initiative</a>, aims to provide safe passage between the breeding and wintering sites of cranes. Similarly, creating awareness about safe farming practices and promoting bird watching tourism are some of the viable options to help protect Demoiselle Cranes.The designation of 10 Ramsar Sites, identification of wetlands of international importance for biodiversity in Nepal provides <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWYVE7LOY1bjdTHz0_Zi04BIgMPA">stopover sites</a> for many ducks geese and waders during migration.Demoiselle Cranes, however, require wide riverbeds and farmlands as stopover sites and wintering habitats. World Migratory Bird Day on 10 October aims to generate awareness and seek support for the conservation of these legendary migratory species so that they survive into the future.Rajendra N. Suwal is the Head of Partnerships Development at WWF Nepal.

Saving Nepal’s flyway for migrating cranes

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.