Sarus cranes hold a unique place among all the other species of birds found in Nepal, owing to their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-lumbini-s-rare-cranes" target="_blank">legendary connection with Lord Buddha</a> in his birthplace of Lumbini. It is believed that Prince Siddhartha was strolling in the palace garden one day when he came across a wounded crane. As he was taking the arrow out, his cousin Devdatta, who had shot the bird, demanded the bird back. Unable to establish who the rightful owner was, the two went to King Suddhodhan who then declared that the bird belonged to the one who saved its life. The bird mentioned in Buddhist scriptures is said to be the Sarus crane found in Lumbini and the wetlands of the Tarai plains of Nepal, and have possibly been living here for millennia.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_b8f603465496e926a7ba7caef0d03f781e6719702a0d2ce25e4f977d62b97b8c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20230822070848_b8f603465496e926a7ba7caef0d03f781e6719702a0d2ce25e4f977d62b97b8c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1146" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> <figcaption>Photos: DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL PARKS AND WILDLIFE CONSERVATION NEPAL</figcaption> </figure>  The Sarus crane’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/cranes-nature-and-godliness" target="_blank">cultural importance</a> has been recognised by the local municipality which regards the bird as its mascot. But rapid urban spread in this part of Nepal has resulted in the destruction of its habitat. A study by Nepal Zoological Society and Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Biology funded by the <a href="https://savingcranes.org/" target="_blank">International Crane Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-lumbini-s-rare-cranes" target="_blank">World Wildlife Fund</a> puts the population of these monogamous birds at only 690 in Nepal. Lead researcher ornithologist Hem Katuwal warns that cranes and other bird species could disappear from the Nepal Tarai if conservation measures are not urgently undertaken.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_20650eed8af4be7b9fb7e63fc92c7f4b19c1c737e9ad301b37ca02a6664eedce.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230822070848_20650eed8af4be7b9fb7e63fc92c7f4b19c1c737e9ad301b37ca02a6664eedce" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="625" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Hari Sharma at the Central Department of Biology, however, is not so discouraged. He says, “The survey was conducted in the dry season, and even then we counted more cranes than expected. This number will definitely increase in the monsoon.”&nbsp; The study looked at the population and status of cranes in the greater Lumbini area and other districts with 14 teams fanning out across 93 blocks with roosting sites, including ten in Lumbini, two in Kapilvastu, seven in Rupandehi, and one each in Jagdishpur Lake, Bajaha Lake, and Nawalparasi. Among the 15 species of cranes found globally, Nepal is home to four, the Sarus (Antigone antigone), Karyangkurung (Demoiselle Crane), Laxman (Common Crane), and Kalikantha (Black-necked Crane). <div class="embed-block"><div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="//cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fembed%2Ftn9sYLe_lZY&key=87ca3314a9fa775b5c3a7726100694b0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div></div></div> The Demoiselle, Common Crane, and Black-necked Crane are migratory birds, flying down from the Tibetan Plateau across the Himalayan mountains to the plains of Nepal and India in winter. But the Sarus prefers to stay put, and the study focussed on this group.&nbsp; Like other wildlife, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/shooting-sarus" target="_blank">survival of the Sarus</a> depends on the availability of water in rivers, lakes and wetlands. But water is drying up due to over-extraction, pollution, invasive species and weather extremes caused by the climate crisis. “As the rivers shrink during summer, the birds migrate further to the south. Last winter, over 100 cranes were found in Bajaha Lake. This time the water had dried up, and only 27 were seen,” says Katuwal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_e779ea21a4900a2d6a0f25daa519c1bdea88127619dc55679f0d90233e43466a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20230822070848_e779ea21a4900a2d6a0f25daa519c1bdea88127619dc55679f0d90233e43466a" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="1045" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  A dedicated <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/proposed-change-to-lumbini-masterplan-threat-to-Sarus,4090" target="_blank">Crane Conservation Area</a> has been formed within the &nbsp;Lumbini enclave due to its sacred connection to the Buddha. The study focused on the Lumbini area, which includes Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, and Parasi, and found out that although wetlands are important, cranes tended to breed in open fields and avoided forests. The region has now been declared an Important Bird Area by <a href="https://www.birdlife.org/" target="_blank">BirdLife International</a>. Increasing construction activity, new cement factories in the Lumbini region worried researchers who felt it would lead to further habitat destruction and water scarcity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_3f1ede6cf02961058be67cf73af22e21c68af2f866a84778d915d5784436ec3a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20230822070848_3f1ede6cf02961058be67cf73af22e21c68af2f866a84778d915d5784436ec3a" data-rendition-name="original" width="830" height="594" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_f110d5c17b0bd309c85b328fc5847491c588142fc15d01dccb7812cc473c5297.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20230822070848_f110d5c17b0bd309c85b328fc5847491c588142fc15d01dccb7812cc473c5297" data-rendition-name="original" width="328" height="250" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Another threat to cranes and other birds is the changing agriculture practice of burning harvest residue which reduces the availability of insects which are already impacted by pesticide use. Electric transmission lines also pose a threat, and at least 42 cranes have been killed in the past 12 years after colliding with wires. Stray dogs and people stealing eggs also pose additional danger. As the habitat of cranes spans the Nepal-India border, many cranes fly back and forth, which points to a need for a trans-boundary conservation campaign by tagging birds to track their movement.&nbsp; The study also surveyed local perception of cranes, and found them to be largely positive with most residents regarding the presence of the birds in their fields as an auspicious sign. However, the Nepal Tarai is now home to more than half of Nepal’s population and there is increasing migration of people from the mountains who may not share the same veneration for cranes. <h2>Cranes&nbsp;</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230822070848_4780b96b8e37038a2538696df6b2ea80a31a33938c48ef2d61964d8a3b0a32a4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20230822070848_4780b96b8e37038a2538696df6b2ea80a31a33938c48ef2d61964d8a3b0a32a4" data-rendition-name="original" width="831" height="1044" loading="lazy" alt="Saras NT"> </figure>  Cranes are the world’s tallest birds that can fly, and the Sarus stand 2m high and can be 3m wide when they spread their wings. They are light brown in colour and have red patches on the head and neck, with pink legs. Cranes weigh from 6-12kgs and are omnivorous birds that feed on plants, grains, roots, insects, and worms. They breed in the monsoon season and build their nests near wetland areas and in fields with &nbsp;grass, roots, and stems of giant reeds.&nbsp; Usually, they hatch one to two eggs in one nest. Both male and female cranes sit upon the eggs &nbsp;for 30 to 32 days and then hatch the eggs. they live in pairs for life, and have been known to have a lifespan of 40 years in captivity. The arrival of cranes indicates rain, and rice planting time. They are regarded as symbols of love because of their conjugal habit.&nbsp;

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Saving Lumbini’s Sarus

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda349c7e80680e080257jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2300" height="1506"/><figcaption>Demoiselle Cranes flying south in autumn along the Kali Gandaki at Kagbeni with Mt Dhaulagiri looming in the background. Photos: RAJENDRA SUWAL</figcaption></figure>It was in Kagbeni in 1980. High above in the deep blue Himalayan sky was a flock of graceful Demoiselle Cranes, flying north riding up-valley winds on their <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWYVE7LOY1bjdTHz0_Zi04BIgMPA">annual migration</a> across the Himalaya. It was my lucky day.The Kali Gandaki at this point is the deepest gorge in the world, located between two eight thousander peaks, Dhaulagiri and Annapurna I. It provides a passage for migratory birds from the Tibetan Plateau and Siberia to the Subcontinent and back.Kagbeni is a vantage point to spot migratory birds, and I had visited it multiple times to provide expertise for filming by NHK and BBC. Till then, I had never seen the cranes, only watched them on Planet Earth Mountains on Discovery Channel.Demoiselle Cranes are the third most common crane species after the Sandhill Crane in North America and Eurasian Crane in Europe and Asia. They number over 200,000, and demonstrate spectacular migratory flights.They breed in the vast expanses of the steppe grasslands of Mongolia and Russia, and fly south across the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya to winter in western India.Unlike other cranes that dwell on wetlands, these cranes prefer relatively dry habitats for survival. Their nests can be found on dry ground around 500m apart from each other.Prior to migration, the birds flock with their fledglings. Birds from Mongolia and Russia overflying Nepal and Pakistan covering nearly 3,000km one way, and finally converge in western India, where they live in large flocks in their wintering grounds.They can fly over extreme habitats of the world including the scorching Gobi Desert, the high and dry Tibetan Plateau, the Himalaya with its jet stream, the lush Gangetic Plains and the farms of Western India.Satellite telemetry studies have recorded a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-great-trans-himalayan-bird-migration/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEVeULiv_aGZnCsiDtV0Vo6KU3L0Q">cyclic migration pattern</a> of Demoiselle Cranes, flying over Nepal during autumn and returning via Mongolia in spring. During their autumn migration, birders can see magnificent flocks of Demoiselle over Nepal’s high mountain passes, gorges and along the Tarai. Farmers in Nepal often witness flocks flying in V formation like a swaying garland pattern in the sky, and call it ‘karyang kurung’ for the sound the make.In 1972, a flock of Demoiselle even alighted on Tundikhel at the centre of Kathmandu. More recently, I have observed them flying over my office in Baluwatar in 2015, and from my house in Chetrapati in 2016.But for these migrating cranes, Kagbeni remains the flight path of choice since the Kali Gandaki serves as a funnel that cuts through the Himalaya. My highest count of the Demoiselle has ranged from 50,000 in 2004 to only 5,000 in 2009.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda389c7e80680e080258jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1000"><figcaption>Another flock of Demoiselle Cranes flying north in spring, riding the up-valley thermals of the Kali Gandaki to lift them over the mountains to the Tibetan Plateau.</figcaption></figure>Variance in counting can be tied to weather, wind and visibility. When the wind in the Himalaya picks up, the flocks descend to lower altitudes. When they have the jet stream on their tails, they ride it over the mountains.For these expert fliers, the flight path is determined by head or tail winds, thermals, katabatic winds, and other weather phenomena. Thermals in the wind shadow of the mountains helps them gain altitude.In Nepal, the southerly daily thermals of the Kali Gandaki valley helps the birds soar up and over the mountains, whereas, riverbanks, wetlands and farms along the flight path are convenient night stops.These wetlands connect the dots along the birds’ migration routes, and Nepal lies in the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/decline-in-birds-of-migration-nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/decline-in-birds-of-migration-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMCt4MH3fr9o9Mfzu3EpqT-WJdNw">Central Asian Flyway</a>. During bad weather events, the birds use the windswept flood plains of the Kali Gandaki river in Kagbeni and Larjung of Annapurna Conservation Area as a safe stopover, while the buckwheat terraces provide food for their long journeys.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171148/636bda3c9c7e80680e080259jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="774"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>While large in number, these birds still need protection from threats along their migratory routes and stopovers. These include poisoning from pesticide laden seeds, and from epidemics of water borne or airborne diseases.In <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/02/16/mongolian-raptor-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/02/16/mongolian-raptor-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGTIQbTCpl1pNTbc7ArUuZ-RCPdvw">Mongolia</a>, the application of the rodenticide Bromadiolone is known to have killed hundreds of Demoiselle Cranes, Steppe Eagles, Saker Falcons and other species. In November last year, 37 Demoiselle were found dead in Jodhpur in India, probably after eating poisoned seeds.In North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan, crane hunters are the biggest threat during migration. Metal weights tied to strings are hurled to lasso the cranes as they fly low to clear mountain passes. Traditional hunters in Pakistan often use live cranes as decoys to attract other birds, and keep them as pets.Ensuring safe and protected wetlands and farms along their migratory routes from Russia, Mongolia, China, Tibet, Pakistan, Nepal to India along the Central Asian Flyway is crucial to ensure the long term survival of these birds.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-ecosystem-is-important-for-sarus/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-ecosystem-is-important-for-sarus/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFyWKHCBDGHmYeapMRHQOiOThrblw">Legend has it</a> that Lord Buddha’s cousin killed a crane, and he was very moved when its mate mourned its death. The scene changed his life by inspiring him to seek a path of non-violence and compassion.One of the approaches undertaken by WWF, known as the <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/our_work/our_focus/freshwater_practice/freshwater_inititiaves/asian_flyways_initiative/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://wwf.panda.org/our_work/our_focus/freshwater_practice/freshwater_inititiaves/asian_flyways_initiative/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmKkjAdwHAjLK7clvuQxaYvOGEcA">Asian Flyway Initiative</a>, aims to provide safe passage between the breeding and wintering sites of cranes. Similarly, creating awareness about safe farming practices and promoting bird watching tourism are some of the viable options to help protect Demoiselle Cranes.The designation of 10 Ramsar Sites, identification of wetlands of international importance for biodiversity in Nepal provides <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/birds-of-passage-Nepal,2921&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1602376683686000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWYVE7LOY1bjdTHz0_Zi04BIgMPA">stopover sites</a> for many ducks geese and waders during migration.Demoiselle Cranes, however, require wide riverbeds and farmlands as stopover sites and wintering habitats. World Migratory Bird Day on 10 October aims to generate awareness and seek support for the conservation of these legendary migratory species so that they survive into the future.Rajendra N. Suwal is the Head of Partnerships Development at WWF Nepal.

Saving Nepal’s flyway for migrating cranes

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

cranes

Saving Lumbini’s Sarus

Saving Nepal’s flyway for migrating cranes

Bells ring all over Nepal

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

The magic 138

Nepal votes with below average turnout