This year’s winter has been warmer and drier in Nepal than any in the previous decade, with temperatures climbing higher than the winter average while precipitation was lower than average.&nbsp;
Climatic data for two months in November and December 2023 published by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows that the temperature in post-monsoon in Nepal did not drop like it did in previous winters, which were themselves warmer and drier than previous ones.&nbsp;
Average temperatures in the two months were higher in the eastern Tarai compared to the western plains. Indeed, the average maximum temperature reached as high as 27°C in parts of Kosi and Madhes Provinces in December.
But while nighttime <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/is-the-nepal-tarai-prepared-for-winter">temperatures in the Tarai </a>and most of the mid-hills were also warmer than usual, the temperature in the mountains dropped to lower than average during the evenings. Similarly, the minimum temperature in November and December was higher than the average in the plains and lower than the average in the high mountains as well.
Bardia’s Gulariya, Sankhuasabha’s Khandbari, Kavre’s Panchkhal, Ilam’s Kanyam, and Baitadi’s Patan municipalities as well as Janakpur Airport broke records for the highest maximum temperatures recorded during November and December.&nbsp;
Gulariya recorded a maximum temperature of 29°C on 3 December, surpassing the previous maximum temperature of 28.5°C recorded in 5 December 2019. Similarly, the maximum temperature in December at Janakpur Airport hit 32.2°C, beating the previous maximum of 30.5°C recorded 12 years ago.&nbsp;
As it stands, 57 out of 113 <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya" target="_blank">weather stations</a> across the country recorded a higher maximum temperature than in previous years during December. Meanwhile, nine weather stations had lower-than-average maximum temperatures for the same timeframe.&nbsp;
Similarly, 60 stations recorded higher-than-average minimum temperatures in December while six stations recorded lower minimum temperatures than average. We get warmer winters when both the maximum and minimum temperatures are higher than average.
Experts say that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/working-with-nature-to-protect-people" target="_blank">climate</a> patterns have changed and become more erratic and unpredictable over the last few years, with 2023 being the hottest year in the past four decades.
This has also been a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-suffers-another-winter-drought" target="_blank">dry winter</a>. Nepal receives an average of 60mm of rain during the three coldest months. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology recorded just 2.7mm of rain in Kathmandu so far this winter – although eastern Nepal and the far-western mountains did get some late snow.&nbsp;
Last year's winter was similarly dry with just 12.9mm of rain, the lowest precipitation recorded in the last 15 years. Data shows that 12 out of the last 18 winters had less than average rainfall, and eight out of those 12 winters had droughts. Even compared to those years, the 2023-24 winter has been drier and warmer.
Farmers across Nepal rely on winter rain more than they do on irrigation systems. The production of wheat, barley, mustard, lentils, citrus and vegetables is significantly affected when there is an inappropriate amount of winter rain.&nbsp;
Similarly, the lack of winter rain also means that Nepal’s rivers are all running low, leading to a decline in the country’s hydropower generation capacity, and the consequent shortfall has to be met by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/blueprint-for-nepal-india-electricity-trade" target="_blank">power imports from India</a>.

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Warmer, drier winters in Nepal

In December, forecasters predicted that Nepal would receive more rain than the three decade average rainfall this winter. We are halfway through winter, and many parts of the country have not received a single drop of rain for four months. Terrace fields in the mountains are dry, and in the plains winter wheat is drying up. Many Himalayan mountains are naked and snowless.&nbsp; “Mukut Himal and many mountains are just bare rock when they should be white with new snow this time of year,” says Madan Sigdel of Tribhuvan University who returned from Upper Dolpo district last week. Nepal receives an average of 60mm of rain during the three coldest months. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has recorded just 1.9mm of rain so far this winter. So far, at least, the forecasters have been dead wrong. The 2023-24 winter is turning out to be driest in recent years.&nbsp; Bibhuti Pokharel of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says that it is too early to declare his office’s weather models wrong. He adds, “Ours was a long-term forecast, it may not have rained yet, but it might rain more than the average during the remaining one-and-a-half months of winter.”&nbsp; Indeed, extreme weather events induced by the climate crisis may not see a change in seasonal precipitation totals, but the rain or snow may fall all at once with destructive force.&nbsp; Winter weather systems in Nepal are dominated by westerly fronts riding the jetstream that travel all the way from the Mediterranean, passing through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, in recent years, the moisture is mostly spent by the time the westerlies reach Nepal.&nbsp; “Studies have shown that the increase in sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean has made the whole region warmer and drier,” explains Binod Pokharel, another hydrology and meteorology professor at Tribhuvan University. “This has meant that the winter wind from the west carries less moisture.” Climate is also greatly influenced by the El Niño and La Niña systems that develop in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when there are above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean while cooling of the ocean there triggers the La Niña. The two events occur every two to seven years, on average.&nbsp; During the La Niña phenomenon, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific change wind patterns, disrupting the westerlies and leading to less rainfall. Last winter the La Niña system was active when there was no rainfall in Nepal.&nbsp; However, the El Niño system replaced La Niña during the first half of 2023, and the Department of Meteorology has estimated that the El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean will persist right through this winter. Nepal has previously had more rain than average when the El Niño system was active. An active El Niño system means there will be more than average rainfall, confirms Sudarshan Humagain of the Meteorology Department. “However, it must be noted that in some years, there has been less than average rain when El Niño is active,” he adds.&nbsp; What this means is that with climate change, weather patterns have become so unpredictable that most long-term forecasts tend to be inaccurate. &nbsp; Indeed, even with an active El Niño, winter rain-bearing westerlies have not been as active as before in Nepal. Periods without rainfall are classified as drought when the total rainfall is less than 75% of the annual average. The trend so far indicates that Nepal is heading for another winter drought, with a significant part of the country not having had rainfall since October.&nbsp; Last year's winter was similarly dry with just 12.9mm of rain, the lowest precipitation recorded in the last 15 years.&nbsp; Data shows that 12 out of the last 18 winters had less than average rainfall, and eight out of those 12 winters had droughts. The trend is that winter rainfall is pushed towards the end of the season, and then it falls all at once.&nbsp; About 80% of the annual rainfall in Nepal occurs during the monsoon months from June to September, and winter generally sees only up to 4% of average yearly rain. “This means that two or three instances of heavy rain are normal for winter months,” says Humagain of the Meteorology Department.&nbsp; The 2023 Synthesis Report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that Asia would experience the effects of extreme rainfall variability and drought in the short term as well as long term. The report also noted that winter temperatures are going up across South Asia and 2023 was the hottest year on record.&nbsp; “It is certain that winter rainfall is declining while winter temperatures are increasing,” explains Professor Pokharel at Tribhuvan University. “Globally, there has been a trend towards more intense rainfall in the monsoon and falling winter precipitation, and this trend could be the norm in coming years.&nbsp; The lack of winter rain and the fact that it is still too early for the winter thaw means that Nepal’s rivers are all running low. This means the country’s total hydropower generation capacity has dropped by 20%, and the shortfall has to be met by power imports from India. At present, Nepal consumes 1,305MW of electricity on average per day, and nearly one-fourth of it is being imported from India this winter. The figure is higher for morning and evening peak hours. “Power generation has declined drastically, and is expected to go down further as chances of rainfall look slim,” says Prakash Chandra Dulal of the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN) “The output of private sector projects usually drops by to 25-28% in winter.” The reason is that all private power plants are run of the river type and not reservoirs that would store monsoon rainfall. Nepal has only one reservoir project, Kulekhani which was built in 1984. The second one is finally under construction on the Seti River in Tanahu.&nbsp; Generating more electricity in winter is more profitable to hydropower producers because the state-run utility Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) &nbsp;buys the power for almost twice the price per unit in winter compared to the monsoon standard rate.&nbsp; “The lack of rainfall and decreased river flow costs us around Rs4 million per megawatt,” says Sura Prasad Adhikari of Barahi Hydro Limited.&nbsp; Even with imports from India, Nepal’s industries are suffering from power cuts.&nbsp; Farmers across Nepal also rely on winter rain more than they do on irrigation systems. Ravi Kiran Adhikari of the Department of Agriculture says that the production of wheat, barley, mustard, lentils, citrus and vegetables is significantly reduced because of winter drought. “There is still time for the crops to revive if it rains during the remaining months of the winter,” says Adhikari, “But if there is no rain, then our crop output will be seriously affected.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1744" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Winter drought NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of wildfires burning in Nepal in the past week. Each dot represents a major fire detected by infrared sensors on the satellite. The picture also shows dense fog blanketing the Indian plains and the Tarai.</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, lack of rain in winter increases the chance of wildfire as happened in the winter of 2021-22 when the Air Quality Index in Kathmandu soared to record-breaking 700.&nbsp; As it is, air pollution in Nepal gets worse during winter months in the Tarai and Kathmandu because of temperature inversion and industrial pollutants from north India.&nbsp; This year’s winter drought is already sparking wildfires, with 48 major fires detected by the NASA FIRMS satellite in the past week.

Nepal suffers another winter drought

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition with only about 7,000 bottles, most of it for export and rest to be sold to rum connoisseurs in Nepal itself. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are working on taking a classic Nepali rum to a new luxury premium brand category, the Cask Series will only be produced this year with new product ranges in future,” explains Subash Lamichhane, managing director of Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in Bara district in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum.&nbsp; The distillery is now adding this limited edition of its ‘Cask Series’. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made either from oak or sal, with charred insides to give the rum a smoky flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. The company has a tasting suite with a master blender and tasters who have to approve the palate test.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the run out of the cask.&nbsp; Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, we expect to throw away about fifteen.”Over the decades, Nepal Distilleries have created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and has served as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. &nbsp;Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable, and it is,” says Lamichhane. The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle adorning its bar (page 6-7). In Washington DC Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito in its drinks menu with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  A distinct element of the award-winning <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">classic Khukri rum</a> is its burgundy colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats. The vats are not just for storage, the wood in the vats imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri Rum bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is the quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour. A mural on the wall of the distillery in Balaju depicts the rum-making process. A lady slings sugarcane on her shoulder, the molasses is churned in a pot, water is channelled into the distillation process, cinnamon, cloves and cardamom are added to a container, and finally there is a bottle of the classic Khukri Rum against a Kathmandu backdrop.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;

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